 It's a very weird feeling, given the way the NASCAR Cup Series schedule used to break, but we're going back to a one-half mile track this week for what feels like the first time in quite a while they have been decreased in the schedule. So we actually haven't had a lot of tracks like Atlanta on the schedule recently, but the NASCAR Cup Series is going to Atlanta for this weekend for the second time this year, which means that we do have data from this track and also a pretty good amount of data we can lean on in trying to determine who will be fast for this weekend. And that's going to be key in trying to determine what we do for DFS because we don't have a lot of great place differential options, meaning we need to identify drivers who can finish well. And luckily, I think the data we've got at our disposal is going to be good enough to make that a doable task for this week. So let's dive on in and get you set for Sunday's race. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy Podcast, powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network in NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Here to preview the Quaker State 400 in Atlanta this weekend. Lock is set for 3.30 pm Eastern on Sunday and the lineup has been set. So you can actually show that lineups as we go throughout the podcast for today. So go to FanDuel, pull up the player pool and you can do that as we go. Find some drivers you like, disagree with me, whatever it may be. You can get those lineups in as of right now. Quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the NumberFire Daily Fantasy Podcast feed coming up on Saturday. We got McGregor versus Poirier, part three. We had Austin Swain preview that as always. Our USC DFS guide does a tremendous job. You can find that by searching for the NumberFire Daily Fantasy Podcast Feed. Wherever you get your podcasts, USC 264 coming up this week. Austin did a great job breaking down his favorite fighters in each salary tier. They're also, of course, our MLB DFS podcast every weekday and the open podcast. For the open next week, that'll be going on Monday. We'll have that on the FanDuel YouTube page or FanDuel YouTube page recording live on Monday and then up on the NumberFire Daily Fantasy Podcast Feed after that. So make sure you're subscribed to the NumberFire Daily Fantasy Podcast Feed. And if you like what you hear, leave us a rating and review as well. The NBA Finals are heading on to game number three on Saturday and FanDuel and Taco Bell are teaming up to add an extra layer of excitement to the action. Introducing the FanDuel Sportsbook and Taco Bell NBA Finals comeback bonus. The terms are simple. All you have to do is head to FanDuel Sportsbook before tip-off and place a $25 plus pre-live moneyline bet on either team to win. 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Or in West Virginia, visit 1-800-gambler.net. Let's take a look at the track breakdown here for Atlanta. And as mentioned, we know what to do for this week. And we know how to handle a one-and-a-half mile track for DFS. Because we've had so many throughout our DFS playing lives. It's just very different than what we've had the past couple of weeks. Because we've been focusing so much on finding place differential options, trying to get drivers who will finish better than where they're starting. This week is very different. And there are two reasons for that. The first one is that this is a longer race than what we've had. It's not as long as a first Atlanta race. Not as long as a short track. But it's still 260 laps. That is 26.0 fan dual points for laps led. And the more laps there are, the more upside there is for drivers at the front if they've got the speed to lead laps and finish well. The second reason it's a different construction for this week is that the starting order is not super conducive to place differential of the top 18 drivers in my model for this week. Nobody is starting deeper than 21st. So you can look at drivers starting deeper in the fields. But their finishing upside might not be all that great. And finishing points are going to matter a lot for this week. And that's naturally going to push us a bit closer to the front of the pack. I think a good model, if you're looking for like a blueprint of what lineup to expect for this week, comes from the Kansas race earlier in the year. It was another race with no qualifying at a one-and-a-half mile track that was about 26 laps long. In that race, three drivers who started inside the top 10 wound up inside the perfect lineup. And one of those guys was a value play. And the value play discussion is key here. We can find guys deeper in the field, value plays who we like. We'll talk about a couple in the tier by tier breakdown. But there aren't a lot of them. Most of the guys I think have a shot at getting a top 10 are starting in the top half of the field for this week. It can feel uncomfortable to roster lower salary drivers closer to the front because if they don't finish well, your lineup is toast. And they have a lot less wiggle room when it comes to finishing position than they do if they start deeper in the pack. But just with the way the lineup broke, I know I'm going to have to use value plays starting in the teens or potentially even inside the top 10. The Kansas lineup showed that's fine as long as they've got finishing juice. And I think that with the way this lineup looks for this week, I'm feeling pretty similar once again here for Atlanta. The other big takeaway from the Kansas perfect lineup is that the waves approach might be in play again this week. And that's something we use in longer races the most part. And the thought process for new listeners is you want one driver in an initial wave who can lead laps early on. And then you can have the flexibility to get some place differential with your second guy. You don't need to get that second guy deeper in the pack. But if you want to use a driver starting deeper in the pack, you should pair them with the driver up front who can lead laps early on while that driver works their way forward. So I want a driver who can lead laps early on. Then I can feel free to dip back for my second stud if I like someone who can get place differential. They can lead laps later on. That way I'm not sacrificing upside and sacrifice in this early laps led if I pair that with a driver at the front. In that Kansas race, Brad keselowski was in the perfect lineup. He started in the pole led 72 laps. Chase Elliott was in the perfect lineup. Started back in 17th. So the waves lineup worked well there. And I think it's going to work well once again for this week. And it does fit with the way the starting order broke for this week. The five most likely winners in my win simulations are starting in the top six spots. Those are your wave one drivers who can lead laps early on. Then you can dip down a bit lower if you want some place differential for your second stud in your lineup. The final takeaway from that Kansas lineup is that jamming in a third mid-range driver is pretty desirable. We've had three races at one and a half mile tracks this year that were four and a mile long. And all three perfect lineups had at least three drivers with salaries of $9,500 or higher. Las Vegas actually had four of them. With there being more laps to be led, the studs are better able to separate from the value plays. So I would like to have my third driver be someone who can lead laps and win, but also just get a top five finish if they do not. It could be a situation where Kyle Larson leads every lap effectively. And that would mean there would be less laps led upside. But I do still think even in that scenario, due to the value of finishing points, we should still be good with using a third guy. And I would say probably $10,000 or higher, it does dip from $10,000 to $9,000 for this week on FanDuel. Kurt Busch might not lead a lot of laps. So I would say trying to get three guys at $10,000 or higher is a pretty solid way to play things for this week. The way to determine who you want to use in those ranges is by looking at performance in the 550 horsepower package. You can look at all seven races on non drafting tracks if you want. But you can also look at the five races at one and a half mile tracks. That lops off the two Pocono races. Or you can zero in on the three races this year on this track type with heavy tire wear. You've actually got a lot of choices for data this week. And I think that's great. We have good data to deal with for Atlanta this week. Those three races that I think we should emphasize most heavily are Homestead, Kansas, and the first Atlanta race. Because those are the three races with heavy tire fall off and the same package, one and a half mile track. Those are the three races I will value most highly. But I also will care about overall 550 horsepower performance and what they've done at the one and a half mile tracks more broadly as well. So we can look at those seven races. Look at the five races at tracks like this or the three races. I would say just kind of tear out the way you're prioritizing things. So rank those Kansas, the Kansas Atlanta and Homestead races first, then broaden the scope to one and a half mile tracks and then broaden it out to the 550 package as well. Should give you a good idea of who will be fast for this week. So to recap our strategy for this week, you've got to be comfortable using drivers at the front. Even with the value plays, I think that's the way it's going to break for this week. Place differential is okay for value plays, but only if you can convince yourself they have the upside to get a top 10 finish. That may not happen. There aren't a lot of guys back there who can do that, at least in my eyes. So be okay taking some risk with your value plays. I want one lap later starting at the front in every lineup to get laps laterally on. We can get a place differential guy from our second stud if you want. I would like a third driver with the potential to win in each lineup. It essentially gives me three swipes in a win, which is always pretty enticing. Lean on a homestead, Kansas and Atlanta most heavily, but also look at other one and a half mile tracks, other races with the 550 package, and that should put you on a good path to filling out a solid lineup. So that's the strategy for this week. Which drivers fit that and which drivers should we lean on? Let's talk about that now. With our tier by tier breakdown for this week based on the salaries over at FanDuel.com, starting off with Kyle Larson who was $14,500, threw Denny Hamlin at 12-2, and you know this. You're listening to this podcast, watching this podcast on YouTube. I do not need to tell you Kyle Larson is worth the salary. But let's just have some fun, some stats for a second. He has obliterated everyone. In the 550 package this year, he led 269 to 325 laps in the first Atlanta race. He didn't win, but it doesn't matter. That's the beauty of DFS. For betting, you need the win, unless you're doing podium stuff like that. But like for DFS, he can be an amazing play even if Ryan Blaney passes him in the final couple laps. You've got wiggle room if the driver dominates, and Larson is very likely to do that. He is at 21% win odds in my simulations. So I can't quite get him for betting at plus 260, but hey, for DFS, we're all about it. So I think we got to build around Larson, differentiate from there. He is the first guy you turn to as a wave one lap leader. As far as who to put second, I wind up on Kyle Busch. There's no definitive answer here. It's hard to feel certain about who is second because it's been so Larson heavy. That's part of why Larson is so appealing because I know he will compete. And I can't say that for sure for the others. With Kyle Busch though, he did have seventh place, average running position in the first Atlanta race. He also won Kansas, another heavy fall-off track. Martin Truex Jr. has been good on these similar tracks too, but I will give the edge to Busch here because Truex hasn't been as good broadly in the 550 package as Kyle Busch. So I'm going to rank this to your Larson 1, Kyle Busch 2, Martin Truex Jr. 3, Denny Hamlin 4, and Chase Elliott 5. Chase hasn't been as good in the heavy fall-off races, so that's why I push him down. You know, I wind up generally being lower on Elliott outside of the road courses, so it'll probably be the same case for this week as well. The second tier is Brad keselowski at $12,000 through Joey Logano at $10,000, and all of these guys are starting 10th or lower. Logano is starting 10th, and he's the one guy I like the least here. So the other guy is starting, I think, 14th through 19th, which means it actually sets up really well for what we talked about in getting some place differential from your second stud. My favorite guy for doing this is William Byron. He actually ranks second behind Larson in aggregate average running position in the 550 horsepower package. He won Homestead, another heavy fall-off track. He had a seventh place average running position in the first Atlanta race. Byron is starting 19th, so he has a lot of place differential points on the table. I would say I think that pairing Larson with Byron is going to be a very attractive way to play things this week. Will it be contrarian? No, so keep that in mind. If you go with those two together, you've got to find a way to differentiate elsewhere, but William Byron really, really fun for this week in Atlanta. The second guy for me in this tier is actually his teammate, Alex Bowman, and I think that if you want to differentiate, maybe you go Bowman instead of Byron, potentially? I don't know. I'm not sure. I think people are kind of done with Bowman at a point, so we'll see. But I think that Bowman is interesting. It is a tough call between Bowman and Ryan Blaney. Both those guys were fast in the first Atlanta race, obviously Blaney won, but Bowman finished third. He had a fifth place average running position, and Bowman is one of the guys who I manually bump up at tracks with heavy tire fall-off because he won Fontana last year. He won Richmond this year, almost won in Kansas back in 2019. So I'll give the slide edge to Bowman just because of how good Hendrick has been, but Blaney pretty good too. Kevin Harvick is starting 21st, and I like his floor. I'll say that. I think his floor is very good. I just don't think his upside is as high as Bowman's or Blaney's. He just hasn't had the same speed as them this year. His best average running position in the 550 horsepower package is seventh. Blaney's is third and Bowman's is fifth, and both those marks came on this track. So it's not the floor that concerns me with Harvick. It's more so the ceiling. I think the ceiling for Blaney and Bowman is higher, so I'll rank them higher. So this tier to me is Byron 1, Bowman 2, Blaney 3, BBB. Harvick 4, Keselowski 5, Lugano 6. Keselowski's a tough one because he did run really well in Kansas, obviously led, like I mentioned before, 72 laps in the pole. It could work out well, I guess we'll see. But I'm going to be lower, but I don't know. I feel like that could be a mistake. I don't know. Maybe I'll talk myself into Keselowski before then, but I think given the appeal of Byron, Bowman, Blaney, not sure if I'm truly missing out on all that much with Keselowski, and I feel okay ranking those guys higher. The mid-range this week actually dips down to Kurt Busch at $9,000, through Chris Buscher at $7,300, and Buscher and Austin Dillon are the only guys in this range here starting outside the top 10. I do like both. Buscher starting 18, he has been especially lively on the tracks with heavy tire wear this year. He had a top 10, or exactly, he had a 10th place average running position in both Atlanta and Homestead, and he actually won a stage in Homestead. Crazy, crazy fast to open that race. Had good runs in Darlington and Bristol, too, and those are slick tracks, so they were not the same package. So I think that if we're looking for a good value play this week who has some place differential juice, your guy is Chris Buscher at $7,300. Dillon had a good run the first day Atlanta race, a lot of speed in the 550 package, so I'm okay with him, but I want to spend more time talking about Kurt Busch. He's starting 8th, so Kurt Busch is not a place differential guy, but he's always someone who runs well when the tire falloff is high. He had a 7th place average running position in Homestead despite having a tire go down, and he still finished like this in that race. He had a fast car in Atlanta the first race. He had issues, didn't finish well, but fast car in that race. So for tournaments where I could be okay taking on some risk from a starting position perspective, I think Kurt Busch is great, and I want to be overweight on him relative to the field at $9,000. So I'm going to rank this tier, Chris Buscher 1, Austin Dillon 2, Kurt Busch 3. I might flip flop those two for tournaments to try to see people are sleeping on Busch, given where he's starting. Christopher Bell is 4, and then Ross Chastain is number 5. Chastain is starting super high in the order. Hasn't been as good in the 550 package so far this year. So it's just like I think he's justifiable. I just prefer those other guys over him for this week. The value tier is Tyler Redick at $2,200 through Daniel Suarez at $6,500. And Redick is very similar to Busch, where he works even though he's starting towards the front. He has had a top 13 average running position in four straight races in this package. He finished second in Homestead. He was seventh in Kansas, and the two high fall-off tracks. And Atlanta specifically has not been a good track for Redick, dating back to his days in the truck series and the Xfinity series. But in theory, it should fit his style because you can run multiple grooves, heavy tire fall-off, get a little crazy. So I think it should fit him, even though the success has not been there. I think that Redick is similar to Busch, where I'd like to be overweight on him in tournaments, even though he is starting near the front. As much as I love Chris Buscher, I think that if you're looking for a pivot for tournaments, off of him, Redick is amazing. $100 less, starting higher in the order, should allow him to go a bit more into the radar. He could win, so I think it's a good pivot, but I'm also okay, he's in both. I'm in a rank, all right. I also like Daniel Suarez for some place differential. He's one of the few guys I think has some good place differential juice this week. The cars aren't fast, which is a concern in Atlanta, but they find ways to get good showings. I'd have it anyway. He had a 15th place average running position in the first Atlanta race. He had a really nice speed in Pocono as well, so Suarez $6,500. He's starting back in 27th. I can definitely get behind that. So to me, this tier would be ranked with Suarez first for safety. I would go Redick too, even though he is starting up front. Mati Benedetto is three. He has been better in the heavy fall-off tracks this year, so that's good. Eric Elmerola is four. I'm just not sold on Stuart Haas racing speed yet. That's awesome when in YouTube asking about Cole Custer. To finish top 15, I am still skeptical of the speed in Stuart Haas racing, so Elmerola low on my list. I'm not super into Briscoe or Custer this week either. Speaking of Cole Custer, let's talk about the punting tier at $6,300 on down. Ryan Newman is similar to Chris Buscher in that he has better runs on the heavy fall-off tracks, which makes sense because they're teammates. Newman had a 12th place average running position in Homestead, 14th place mark in Atlanta. He is $5,800 starting back in 29th. He and Suarez are the two big place differential guys here. And if you want to jam in Larson with two other guys in that second range, I think that Newman and Suarez are the guys who can most move the needle for you there. But again, just keep in mind finishing upside for them, not as high as it is for the other guys in the range above them. I do like Ricky Stenhouse Jr. as a not as much of a place differential guy. He's starting 16th. He's $6,000. He had a 14th place average running position in the first Atlanta race. He ranks the highest among drivers with a salary under $7,000 in aggregate average running position in the 550 horsepower package. So I'll give him swipes. Obviously things can go bad with Ricky Stenhouse Jr., but hey, you know, whatever. We'll see what happens. I think that he's worth a swipe for this week. Newman is the top guy in the punting tier for me, followed by Stenhouse 2, Bubba Wallace 3. I will put Cole Custer for two Cole Custer's credits. He has been better on the track to the heavy fall off, had a good run at Homestead, decent run in Atlanta too. So I'm not going to write him off starting back in 23rd, but just Stuart Hoth racing in general, not doing it for me in this package as of right now. Let's finish up with our picks to win for this week in Atlanta. I always pick one driver above $10,000 and one below. I can't really pick against Larson, right? I mean, I can. I can't though, because like, I don't know where else I go, honestly. And this is not like relative to odds. I'm just picking a dude. So let's just do it. Let's pick Kyle Larson. Let's be boring. He is 21% likely to win based on my win simulations. And I'm not going to argue with them. I think that's correct. So I think Kyle Larson is my win pick above $10,000. Below, I will go Kurt Busch. I kind of said that he's probably not going to lead laps before. And like that's most likely true, but like he's crafty. He's good on slick tracks. I think he had a lot of speed in Atlanta the first race. Good speed in Homestead. I think he could do it. He does have the highest win odds in my simulations among guys in this range. He's at 2.9%. And Tyler Redick is at 2.2%. So if you're looking for a long shot bet, I'd go Redick. But if I'm picking a guy below $10,000, I will go Kurt Busch for this week. So the official win picks this week are former teammates Kyle Larson and Kurt Busch. That is all that we have here for today on the Heat Check Fantasy podcast. But as mentioned, make sure you check out UFC 264 preview via Austin Swain. That is up on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed right now, available wherever you get your podcasts. If you have questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis. J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast. Big thank you, Devin, for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your lineups for Atlanta. We'll talk to you once again next week. 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