 Hello and welcome to NewsClick. I am Poranjai Guha Thakurtham. How important is the second of May going to be in the contemporary history of India? How significant are the outcomes of the elections in four states and one union territory? Assam, Bengal, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. How significant is Mamata Banerjee's victory in Bengal? And how is the second of May likely to change the course of Indian politics? These are some of the questions I am going to ask Ram Chandraguha who is joining me from Bengaluru. Ram is a noted historian, prolific writer, columnist, public intellectual historian. Thank you so much Ram for giving us your time. First question. When you look at the outcomes in the four states and Puducherry, what are the most important aspects of the outcomes in these four states and what is the bigger message that you are reading as far as national all-India politics is concerned? So the first thing is that although four different parties or fronts are one in these four states, what is slightly similar that all in different ways express regional aspirations. The D.N.K. Lane front in Tamil Nadu, the left front in Kerala, the TMC in Bengal and the BJP left front Assam, they are local anxieties. In Bengal, for example, the BJP ran a kind of pan-Hindupla campaign that you must accept Ram, J.C. Ram must be your slogan, but that didn't go down well. In Kerala, the BJP has been active for quite long and of course the Congress, which usually alternates with the left front, never succeeded. In Tamil Nadu, which is a state I know quite well, the A.I.D.M.K. government of EPS was actually performing quite well until they allied with the BJP and that old fears of Hindi, imperialism, North Indian domination came in. So I think the first takeaway that a kind of the Hindutva idea of one nation, one leader, one ideology, one NGO, namely the RSS, one dress code, one food code, one music code, whatever else that has hit its limits. That's the first thing. The second thing is there's a very interesting story today, Paranjoy, summarizing a survey that Lokniti CSDS has done. And this survey shows, for example, that in all four states, the CAA is now unpopular. So the pet law of Home Minister Amit Shah, in which he invested so much capital and actually where there was a spontaneous popular movement against it, which was crushed and actively so jailed that ordinary people don't want a divisive law. The third thing is that, except in Assam, in the other three states, Mr Modi's language of double-engine government, if you have BJP in your state, you'll do better, has been rejected by the public, not just in the polls, even in opinion surveys. Having said all this, of course, in many ways, the most significant election is Bengal because the TMC... I'm just stopping you, I'm stopping you here. I'm going to talk about Bengal in some detail with you. But before that, on the theme that you've been talking about so far, after the 2nd of May, do we see the emergence of three tall political leaders with bases in specific regions, Pinarayi Vijayan and Kerala, Stalin in Tamil Nadu and Mamta Banerjee in Bengal. Do you see them as emerging as... I won't say it's too early to talk about a coalition or a front, but do you see these so-called regional political leaders in a sense leading the opposition against the Narendra Modi regime, which has been in power in Delhi for, well, seven years, almost seven years. So I'd say Paranjoy that after 2015, where the big state of Bihar was lost by the BJP, this is the weakest the BJP has been politically, much more, in fact, because three states, of course, it's true that they invested much more in a willing Bengal than in the two southern states. But also what is significant, and I like to stress this, is this political, relative political weakening of the BJP has come at a time where there's an economic downturn, when they're being widely criticized for their mishandling of the crisis and finally when the international image of Narendra Modi is at an all-time low. So there are several factors at work which make the Modi government more vulnerable, less omnipotent than it has ever been in its seven years, not just these three victories, those three victories are also important, these three defeats are also important. You know, since we're going to spend a little bit of time on Bengal and I know you have a special affinity to Bengal, you studied there at the Indian Institute of Management, Kolkata. You lived in Kolkata for many years, you met your wife over there in Kolkata. So before we talk about Bengal, let's quickly look at the significance of the LDA victory in Kerala. It's kind of broken a trend which has been there for several decades now where it's always very close contests, but you saw the incumbent regime almost inevitably. As far as I remember, I may be a little wrong, it's been 40 years since the incumbent regime has been re-elected. How significant is this and in particular, how would you sort of look at Pinarayi Vijayan's stewardship of the state? I think it's been very significant, in fact almost 50 years since the government has been re-elected. The Malayalis like to change, they have a stable two-party system, which may be one reason they've been so well governed. I think the left front did really good work during the pandemic, not just Mr. Vijayan but his ministers, the finance minister, Thomas Isaac, the health minister, KK Shalaja, who won re-election with a record margin because of our performance, which means it's an important fact for enjoy because it shows good cabinet ministers also count. The idea that there is one guy who will run the government, Mr. Modi or it is necessary for Mamta Banerjee too. She should empower her ministers in the way Vijayan has done. So I think he was accessible during the ACTCAA protests before the pandemic. I was in Kerala in December, January, 2019-20. He himself addressed meetings, achieved like Mamta did. So I think he proved himself a man of the people. He empowered his cabinet ministers. Kerala has always had a very active NGO movement holding the government to account. A free press, for example, in UP, they've been scrutinized, the chief minister's activity is much more carefully than would happen in UP. And probably also an indifferent fragmented Congress party. I mean, it's ironic that Rahul Gandhi is an MP from Kerala and yet his party does so badly in Kerala. So I think there are a number of reasons but it is a very impressive victory and it is a reward. And you would add to that Kerala's track record in healthcare, which is superior to almost most parts of the country. And especially in view of the COVID, the ongoing pandemic. Absolutely. Paraj, since you've been a reporter for so long and I think truth and transparency are important. In several states like UP, Gujarat, MP, the truth has been suppressed. Journalists aren't allowed to report facts. In Kerala, Vijayan gives press interviews. Unlike, shall we say, Mr. Modi or unlike Adityanath, the press reports the truth and so the state acts. So actually, as Mr. Abarthya said famously, argued that in totalitarian states you don't have famines because the leaders don't know that scarcity is about. There's a similar lesson in the tackling of a pandemic. Those states that have permitted a free press and of course, because they have a better healthcare system too. But truth and transparency help in good administration at the time of a pandemic. Okay, let's look at Tamil Nadu. In fact, many people were expecting the DMK under Stalin to perform even better than it has. In fact, the surprise has been that the AIDMK without Jailalitha did better than what many posters, many analysts had anticipated. So in fact, the victory for the DMK under Stalin and Stalin has not been as sweeping as some anticipated. So, you know, I can give some personal experience here. I spent part of last year in Tamil Nadu and we were regularly visited by the health authorities. You know, my wife and Sudhata and I, who just a minor correction, I didn't meet her in Ahmedabad. After we got married, we came to, I met her in Ahmedabad. But after we got married, we came to Kolkata. Okay, I stand corrected. But we spent several months here last year. And, you know, we found how efficient and transparent the staff was that we'd be visited the health staff. We'd be visited every week. Is anyone in your family, any neighbor, do you know of a case reported? So like Canada, it has a capable health system. The chief system was very, very focused and excellent administrators, you know, the health health secretary, the director general of health services. Some of the revenue officials are very highly regarded. I mean, Tamil intellectuals tell me about how good the officials are and hardworking and focused and capable. And I think, had EPS not allied with the BJP, he may have done even better. All right. If you can have a brief few, and okay, let's look at Puducherry. They're the old BJP tricks of the trade have worked. I mean, they break the Congress, they set up a so-called regional party and yeah, sure, they're in power. I mean, I'm not saying Puducherry is a big state or it's going to have a huge influence on national politics. But in Puducherry, the old BJP techniques or tricks worked. Yes. It worked at probably, you know, I think the Congress was not up to the battle as it hasn't been in other states as well. Okay. If you look at Assam, here, how is it that the BJP was able to buck anti-incumbency sentiment? I mean, is it Himanta Biswas Sharma and he's affectionately called the Amit Shah of the Northeast? Or is it that, how much of it is what the Bharti Janta Party led government in Assam has done? And how much of it is on account of the weakness of the Indian National Congress and its allies, including Badruddin Abjal, Ajmal I mean your partners, AIUBF, the BPF, etc. You know, Puducherry Assam is a state I know least about because as you say, as you say, I've lived in Bengal for many years, I have close connections there. I'm, you know, by ethnicity at Tamil, I know Kerala well. So I would rather not comment on Assam. I have anecdotal evidence I've had an occasional phone conversation with a historian friend in Guwahati. But nothing I say on Assam will have remotely any credibility because I don't really know the state so well. Alright. So let's talk about Bengal. I mean, I think this whole thing that was sought to be put out by all kinds of, you know, commentators, writers, critics, analysts. This great Bengali exceptionalism. That somehow Bengalis or bongs, Assam is sort of a unique, I have certain unique social, political or economic characteristics. But what we actually saw were elections that took place more than a month, eight phases. And what despite Mamata Banerjee's loss from Nandiram, it was such a convincing victory for the Trinamool Congress that it surprised a huge number of people. I include myself in that category. And I dare say many of the Trinamool's own supporters were surprised at the sheer scale of the victory. What are your thoughts? Your first general thoughts on Bengal, I have a few specific questions to ask. Right. I mean, I have a very close and intimate connection with Bengal. I went there 40 years ago to study. My first job was there, you know, that's where we used to spend a lot of time, including in Chumbua restaurant and the coffee house, which I remember very fondly. One of the reasons I write for the telegraph regularly is because of my Bengali connection. Bengal gave me my education. So now I had a small role to play. I had a small role to play in getting the first article published in the telegraph. Exactly. I recall it was either 82 or 83. Absolutely. Absolutely. So, you know, I have a lot of affection for Bengal and Bengalis and I sometimes chastise them too for things they, you know, sometimes they can be so absorbed within themselves. They don't understand the rest of the world. But I think, you know, the BJP made it a prestige issue to take on Bengal. Abhishek Shah has really since 2014 done nothing else. The CAA was explicitly aimed at assuring Bengali Hindus who are refugees from East Pakistan or Bangladesh that they would get citizenship. Narendra Modi extraordinarily went to Bangladesh and used a foreign trip to campaign in the Bengal election visiting a shrine of the Maduas. So, it's amazing how much energy they invested in the state election. Is it hatred for Mamta Maniji because she can fight back? Was it sentiment because the Chan Sangh was founded by Shyama Prasad Mukherjee? You know, it's so they wanted to claim Bengal, which they never have. But it's amazing how much energy was put in, including when the second wave of the pandemic had begun. Mr. Modi and Shyama are boasting on Twitter of the number of rallies they were addressing. The size of the rally, the size of the crowd. It was criminal negligence of the part of the election commission to have an eight phase election. When you look at the election commission, I mean, the former chief election commissioner, Mr. Sunil Arora, he said, so what, we already had seven phases, now we're having eight phases. And then when Ms. Mamta Maniji, when the second wave, the COVID wave had begun, said that, you know, the last three rounds, why don't you compress them, have it on one day. The election commission didn't listen to her. But there is a view that the partisan actions of the election commission of India were highlighted perhaps like never before in these elections. And if indeed you believe that is true, then do you think it also had an impact, a political impact or an impact on voter preferences or the way that the voters actually exercised their franchise? So I think it appears certainly that the election commission's behavior was partisan. Tamil Nadu is bigger than Bengal. Its population is slightly smaller, 80 million to 100 million. I mean, in terms of assembly, in terms of assembly constituencies, it's a little less than Bengal. I'll tell you exactly. Bengal has 294 assembly constituencies, Tamil Nadu had 234. But its size is larger. Of course, it's true that there's a greater history of political violence in Bengal. So Tamil Nadu had one phase for the whole state. You can certainly justify two phases, even three, but eight is really overdoing it. Now Prasad Kishore, the post strategist of the TMC, said in an interview that so minutely planned was the scheduling to help the BJP, that in a single district elections were held in four phases, because that is known to be a TMC district and the BJP was nervous. If you hold it in one phase, then the bit TMC will sweep like Mr. Modi go there more than once. The kind of hate speech that people like Dilip Ghosh and Ruvendu Adhikari particularly, his overnight transformation from a secularist to a communalist, that almost the day after he joined the BJP and no chastising by the election commission and especially when the second wave spread. I mean, it was really criminal of the EC to continue with mass rallies for so long. So I think, and yet it did help. Again, if I was to quote Prasad Kishore again, of course, he is not an impartial observer, but he claims that if election commission had not been so partisan, the BJP would have got half the number of seats, maybe 14 instead of 70 or. Now, you know, I think it's interesting to, it's too early of course, but it's interesting that despite all the pollsters, despite the partisanship of the election commission, despite the fact that the BJP also has the government machinery and much deeper pockets than the Chernobyl Congress, despite the fact that people fear the left and the Congress would split the vote, would split the minority vote, hence helping the BJP, it's been such an impressive performance and I think we should discuss that. Right, sure. So let's pick on two of the points that you made. One is the whole issue of deep pockets and the other issue is woman power, the gender factor, deep pockets. You know, Ram, around the time we used to meet each other in Kolkata, I was a cub reporter with the telegraph. I remember going, reporting what Jyoti Basu had once said in the state assembly in the Vidhan Sabha, where he said, you know, if somebody standing in the middle of the road and you know, doling out money or giving booze, alcohol or distributing clothes, of course, people will come and take it. Does it mean that they will vote for that party? And Jyoti Basu said, no, and I was young and idealistic and I was much impressed, but over the years I became cynical and I realized that money power does matter. Money power, the ability to spend huge amounts of money does influence voters, elections, it has in different parts of the country. This time, do I have reason to be idealistic once again, to regain the idealism of my youth, because we've seen the BJP splurge. You know, two full hotels were taken up by the BJP. Kolkata Airport has never seen so many private aircraft within a few weeks, you know, 40 aircraft, helicopter. The kind of money that has been spent and despite that money, the BJP has been comprehensively defeated in Bengal. So what are your thoughts in this regard? So just to add to the money the BJP spent on the campaign, what kind of money might it have spent to induce all those TMC defectors to join them. You know, one of them was flown in a private plane to meet Amit Shah, right, a former minister. Quite a group of them, a big group of them. No, I mean it's quite extraordinary. Though to be fair, Mamta Banerjee wasn't penniless, 10 years in power must have given her, not a massive war chest, but enough money at least to run a systematic campaign. But I think the BJP overdid the mocking scornful misogynistic remarks about Mamta. You know, Mr. Bori himself, you know, the video that's going absolutely viral. And as Mahua Mitra said, that's a cat-call. That's what a Bengali dada says in a pada where a young girl passes. Just truly, truly vulgar and unbecoming of a prime minister. Dilip Ghosh probably exceeded his boss in the vulgarity of his remarks. And clearly that's, you know, that's something that has deeply angered the women of Bengal, rightfully so. Once again, Ram, I'm going to come to this whole issue of angering the women of Bengal. But you seriously believe that despite splurging money, why did it not have an impact? I mean, once again, is Bengal exactly? I'd say from a political point of view, one is there was no chief ministerial face. I think it's very important to recognize even state elections are becoming chief ministerial. I thought our mutual friend was the chief ministerial candidate. They were allowed. Maybe they should have allowed Sapa Das Gupta or Dilip Ghosh early on and they would have had a better chance. But that thought they would offend the TMC defectors. I believe that one reason, despite the asymmetry in Manipur, despite the NDA being in office in Bengal, in Bihar, I believe the RJD ran them so close and the Bihar election was they just we were subjected to the chief ministerial alternative. Of course, he had a good campaign. He was energetic. He made good speeches. He had a focused program about offering employment and so on. But yet there was a face. I appreciate what you're saying, the personalization of politics. But once again, I'm sorry I'm going back and forth again and again to the same point. The huge amount of money that the BJP spent in Bengal. How come it apparently did not have the kind of effect that the BJP thought it would observe? He has had in other parts of the country. You know, it's not always worked in Delhi. They had much more money than up, but up defeated them in Punjab. They've had more money than the Congress. So it's not always work. One last thing about the election commission's partisanship. You know, despite former election commissioners like S.Y. Koreshi raising the point, the election commission has never questioned the secretive electoral boards. They're quite happy with this. In fact, the election commission has changed its position. What its position was some years ago and what it is now. Yeah. I think probably 10 years in power had given Mamta a modest watchest. Not nowhere near league of Amit Shah, but enough to fight a focused determined campaign powered by her own personality. I mean, she's a street fighter. You see, we know about the gender factor. We know that there were, God knows how many thousands of women whose husbands or their brothers or their fathers may have voted for a party other than the TNC, but they went and voted for the TNC. Now, we also know that Mamta Banerjee and Mamata Bedi is unique. I mean, I cannot think of any other tall politician in this part of the world, in Asia and South Asia that has, oh, she has risen. I mean, without a male mentor. I mean, I can rattle off all your names. I mean, if you look at other countries in the world, Aung San Suu Kyi, Khaledha Zia, Shea Khasina, Sreema Bhadanaik, Benazir Bhutto. Within India, you look at Sonia Gandhi, Maya Vati, Jaya Lalita. Almost every single tall woman politician has had a male mentor. I mean, the left underestimated that. I think the BJP too underestimated how significant this aspect of Mamata is, that she is a woman, a successful woman politician, without a male mentor. Yeah, absolutely. And that's how she fought her way. I mean, if you recall in the Congress, how she was ill-treated by the male leaders of the West Bengal Congress when she was in that party. So she left and started her own party. So she is a fighter. She is self-made in the same way as Modi is. She's worked her way up from the bottom. She owes her rights to no one. Though now she seems to be committing the mistake of promoting her nephew, which I hope she gives up very quickly after being re-elected. I mean, there's a very interesting similarity between her and Modi. Another one is that she is also a megalomaniac. Her MPs do chamcha giri around her in the same way, putting the Rajasabha MPs, do chamcha giri around her in the same way that Modi does. So she's a force to combat Modi. I think she was also able, one last point, I think she was also able, apart from women, to harness this feeling that Mamata is ours. Why is the BJP not allowing Dilip Ghosh or Shopan Das Gupta? Will they get some North Indian to rule us? Maybe there was some insecurity in the mind of Bengalis. They didn't know what was in the mind of Raji and Modi. I'm going back to your comments a little while. That scornful, mocking, misogynistic remark, didi o didi, that taunt. You think that all of the day it backfired very badly. The CSDS Lok's DT survey shows that before the survey itself, there's a very good political scientist at Ashoka University, Niranjan Sarkar, who travelled through Bengal and mentioned this in one of his reports. He said, I don't know whether this will swing the poll so that the TMC will win, but it's certainly a factor. He could observe it on the ground several weeks before while polling was still going on. And the post poll survey by CSDS Lok DT confirms that women voted overwhelmingly for Mamata, including many Hindu women, including as you say, wives of husbands who may have voted for the BJP. Alright, Ram, political violence has been endemic to Bengal. Even as we are recording this program, there is violence happening. There's all kinds of speculation whose responsible allegations, counter allegations. In her third term, are we going to see didi reining in the goons in her party? Are we going to see her become more responsible, less of a megalomania? Are we going to see her reduce the corruption? That is pretty endemic in Bengal politics, but most importantly, Ram, are we going to see a mature leader? Are we going to see a more mature and a more dynamic Mamata Banerjee in her third term? Well, I think she could learn from the Kerala model. For example, Pillare is a person of the people, but he's not flamboyant. He's low-key. He doesn't have a family in politics. So Mamata should get her nephew some other profession outside politics, empower the cabinet ministers, empower the civil servants, let them do their job professionally, take advice from experts. And also maybe learn from Bangladesh. The sister country to the east which has such an exemplary record where it comes to women's education, health, employment, entrepreneurship. So I think we're less arrogant. I mean, no one doubts that she's a force of nature. She's incredibly energetic, combative. But is she like Moni in that she doesn't take advice? She thinks she knows it all. So I think be more collaborative, have a team, get your nephew out of politics for sure. Go to states like Kerala, travel to Bangladesh, study the best practices everywhere. Don't visit Uttar Pradesh to learn anything. So I think there are ways in which she can improve and become a better chief minister. Whether she'll do it is another question. My last question to you. We've run out of time and therefore my last question to you. You think she should nurture national political ambitions or would that be a sign of hubris arrogance before she gets her own house in order? I mean, there are enough problems in West Bengal and as we are talking, those problems haven't really diminished. So since you've been offering a lot of unsolicited advice to Didi, do you think she should nurture national ambition? Last question to you. The people of West Bengal have given her a third term so that she serves them more ably and with more focused policies than she has done so far not to go away to Delhi. Thank you so much Ram for giving us your time and as always speaking very freely, frankly, candidly about the significance of the 2nd of May in Indian politics. Thank you very much for being with us and all of you who heard and watched this program, please continue to watch Newskeet.