 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network After a thrilling Sunday of football between all those fun games Especially the late window a lot of good ones as well We get to close things up on Monday The game that doesn't appear all that fun at first glance But maybe we'll get some more chaos to close that week We're gonna break down Commanders at Eagles with Ryan Williams getting his read on this game to close that week number 10 on a high note This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined you once again And by a Ryan Williams check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W Ryan week number 10 almost fully in the books How you do it today? Oh? I'm doing just fine Jim. You know, we're just trying to it's crazy We're ending week 10 going on to week 11 Weeks start to wind down and you start to see the light at the end of the tunnel for postseason So I'm just enjoying life here Yeah, I mean, I'm excited because next week week 11 we get cowboys and Vikings And for some reason in my brain that match is always associated with Thanksgiving I know it's not on Thanksgiving But like if we get a cowboys and Vikings matchup that means it's November Which means I am very close to putting out Christmas decorations This means I am very close to being in a good mood for an entire month. So we're almost there We got some really fun football on Sunday to that that Vikings bills game I bet the Vikings money line because of the Josh Allen news on Monday and Sunday morning. I was like well, that was a waste of money and It wound up being very stressful, but very fun Your bears had Justin Fields play pretty well again and they lost to improve the draft picks So I feel like we got to both be in a pretty good mood on this Monday Yeah, I mean, you know, I think the fact that they're losing these close games, right? It's kind of a little bit weary some, you know, you'd like to you'd like to see your team have a chance to close it out at the end But yes, it's all about the draft picks for Justin Fields if we can get a top 10 pick or better That's really what it's about And you know just try and get some get some momentum going into 2023 And you also negatively impact the Lions draft picks, but hey, it's it's a win-win for sure We're gonna break down this commanders at Eagles game on Monday night here in just one second The first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast because we got Podcasts every weekday right here in the same feed. We've got this one. We've got our week week 11 first look coming up We've got Ed Feng doing some World Cup previews coming up on Tuesday And also Wednesday a fun guest on the covering the spread at college football podcast with Ed as well there We'll have our full preview the ride coming up Thursday and then our player prop breakdown with the JJ Zachary's and Friday all those right here Are they covering the spread podcast feed and up on the Fanduil YouTube page as well? 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Let's get our focus now to this commanders at Eagles game for Monday night before we talk about the traditional markets here Ryan What's your overall view of this rematch here between the commanders and the Eagles? Yeah, so I think For me it comes down to you know How far can the Eagles take this and how kind of legit they are right when we're talking about the brass of the NFC? I mean they got it. They probably were watching football yesterday see what the Vikings can do is they're right on their tails They were with only one loss And you know, this is a divisional game where you like can't let this one Slip away your 10 to half point favorites. I think that number is pretty hefty I know we'll talk about the markets in general, but like this is a game divisional game like Heineke He's only played one game in this matchup like in his career Which I was kind of shocked about but like, you know, they only lost about four points in this game Or for this year when they played in January last season. So we know he's a gamer Washington has some pieces there. I'm not sure about the status of face young But you know, I expect Washington to go out there and you know, still try and play for something I mean, they they've only got three wins on the season. They're definitely in the mix to you know Be playing for draft picks here. But um, this this is just one of those games for me Where like, you know, we talked about the Eagles, you know playing the Vikings earlier this year And like we'll see how legit they are and all these, you know, Dallas coming down We'll see what they are. But to me, it's about the Eagles now Can you beat up on these teams that you're supposed to win against handedly? And that's really what I'm looking for tonight I think beat up was the right word. Can they do that? Can they accelerate and just bury a team? Because I kind of did that the first time they faced the commanders. Um, I was watching that game on the plane I just have like these flashbacks of Every time Carson Wentz dropped back the Eagles defensive line was Absolutely just lighting up the Washington offensive line. It was honestly a pretty dominant showing And I'm curious how that changes the second time around because you know, you can kind of better account for a better game plan for A pass which you expect to be very good I'm just not sure if the commanders are good enough to nullify that. Please. Let's talk here about the traditional markets for this game Eagles are 10 and a half point favorites total in this game comes in at 43 and a half when I look at my numbers I think So I have the Eagles money line in um earlier week in an earlier week parley That was tied at the Giants. So that one's still alive. That was when it was I think minus 460 It is now minus 590. So I've got nothing there 10 and a half is a pretty big number. So despite the fact I've got them at 11.62 I can't lead 10 and a half because of the key number at 10 there. So Right now with where things stand, I feel like I've kind of been priced out of the eagles, which is unfortunate But what about you? What are you seeing in this game from a traditional markets perspective? Yeah, I think uh, I was just actually pulling up just to make sure I had the line correct here as we look at the Over under in this game. I feel like we could, you know, really see two teams kind of slot I get out. We got the over at 43 and a half right now in the fan dual sports, but I would You know, that that's a tough one, you know, you're really kind of looking at going past that number there But I'm an island game. I'd be willing to say that, you know, these teams, you know, they play it 100 times it's it's probably going to hit the under over 50 percent. So I'm looking I'm looking at that. I mean we you talked about like the eagles being healthy Healthy or we'll see what the washington side of things again is is like on on defense, especially The eagles just had their way with this team. Um, so, you know, maybe be some drive stall out The eagles defense is is very stout. Um, so they can make, you know, haneke's life a little bit Isorable. I'm looking at, you know, traditionally taking the under 43 and a half in a game like this Um, the the spread like I said, it's just too It's just too big. Um for me to to get on that line. I mean at 11. Um, it got up to an out 10 and a half It's just it just feels weird, you know, and I'd be willing I'd definitely be willing to take the washington side if we get any type of status on chase young's Um ability to be playing in tonight's game because I think that really would help the washington defense out to help give them some, uh Shorter shorter drives good That's the biggest bummer about these the island games is that the the activation rules are different. Um, so Like let's say it's a sunday game. You have to activate guys from ir Saturday at 4 p.m That's when you have to activate them or bring them from the practice squad for a monday night game I believe it's like a four o'clock, which is super annoying four o'clock day of like Right, I know that like they don't want to compete with like the games going on on sunday But like it means we're not going to chase young until four p.m. Eastern today Um, it sounds like he's probably not going to go based on what I have read But he actually is a legitimate difference maker So I understand your hesitation there the the scheduling though is super annoying with these Games also trying to like game plan around like single game dfs slates It's a nightmare trying to figure out who'll be called up and stuff like that Let's talk about this eagle side of here As you mentioned they are pretty healthy right now Uh, but the problem is we've seen them coast when they've gotten leads And we've seen that because they've gotten a lot of leads. They've been able to coast quite a bit this year But it's been a bit annoying because they're not full foot on the gas at all times Which to me Makes it tough to really get enthusiastic about betting props on their side Unless it's an under where I feel like maybe that guy won't be involved early than they they coast later on so I'm not seeing a whole lot right now. What's the rate on the eagle side of this game? Yeah, I think I think there's some fun to be had. Um, when you're looking at the prop market We can start it off with uh, when jaylin hurts there. I was looking at his rushing prop Um for a while and now the press they had it up. It's 42 and a half I really like that number if we were going to get chase young playing because just the pressure and the way that they'll watch the defense plays I thought he'd be you know running out there But it is you know playing in the home crowd and they still you know have a tendency to do what they do Trying to get pressure on the quarterback. Um, so I do like that. Yeah, I'm not really on like the eagles backfield They're just you know, this could end up being a kenneth gain well game And you know, everybody would be talking about miles sanders type of thing because they're so heavily favored Um, it's just it's just one of those things I stay away from I am interested in the in the past catchers though. Um for the eagles across the board I mean a j brown has you know been lighting it up for this team He's 70 and a half over receiving yards. I mean he can hit that on two plays, right? I'm not sure if I'm willing to take the over on that But when you look at divanta smith being at 52 and a half I was actually surprised by that And it's possibly because the books have seen him, you know, kind of not get it going as of late But when we looked at this first matchup, I mean divante smith against man coverage against this team This guy went for 160 like with ease. Um, it was it was nothing So that that line felt a little bit low for me knowing how they play and then dallas goddard Especially um at his line where he comes in at 45 and a half this guy's traditionally At least with jaylen hearth being the quarterback has you know gone bananas against this team In the coverage that they play so and he's been leaned on the past couple of weeks as well So I love that and then with quest walkins. I was looking to see if we had a longest reception for him It's not listed on the market there, but his receiving prop is 11 and a half and like I'm willing to kind of take that bet because You know, especially when things kind of get dicey like especially like the way I'm seeing this game go under If the eagles are looking for big plays, this guy is on the field. I'm not really sure I don't want to misspeak. I don't know what his eight out is But just from the eye test with the eagles being on so many prime time games and things like that this year so far He's been involved in in when they want to take deep targets So 11 and a half like this is just a low number for him when he's going out there and can catch a bomb over 20 Plus yards in general Yeah, his eight at 10.4 yards. So he's getting a lot of downfield works last year is last year is 12 So in general that is kind of his role is You're going to go downfield effectively I did want to ask you about the the Dallas Goddard and Devontae Smith ones any interest for you in alternate markets there the because Goddard's actually had a lot of receiving yardage upside this year, which is surprising for a tight end He's plus 114 to get 50 plus yards I I think that's like If I had to pick between the past catchers, I would go Goddard's direction. I know that the question is Would I go towards the alternate market or go to go towards the strict overunder? Would Goddard be your favorite one there? Do you like smithmore? Which one if you had to pick one would be your favorite and you go into alternates are there just the the baseline one? Yeah, I think well really it comes down to those two right because I think we I don't know if we've really seen a game where AJ Brown has struggled and Dallas Goddard and Devontae Smith have done all of the work and I don't know that this washington Defense is good enough to just You know take AJ Brown out of the scenario So then you're looking at the second mouth to feed right? Is it going to be Goddard? Is it going to be Devontae Smith? Um, and you know, I feel like people would lean Devontae Smith because of the previous matchup But Dallas Goddard like I said historically against this Washington team like this guy has put up 60 139 170 so yeah when you're looking at the ultimate market when you're getting it plus 50 or 50 yards plus he's already at plus money plus 114 if you go 60 yards you're getting plus 170 Over 182 plus 182. So I think that's interesting to kind of dabble in that market there with this team, you know we talk about concentrated offenses and It's really hard to think of the Eagles because they utilize, you know all these different pieces But really it comes down to that three Heather monster of AJ Brown Devontae Smith and Dallas Goddard You know four quarters get Goddard to 60 70 yards. I'd be willing to take a bet on that two to one Yeah, I think that the Goddard one if you look at like number fires projections He's at 66.06 receiving yards, which seems Kind of high. I think the projection might be kind of high But if you plug that into um, I talked on fried about the the betscope distribution calculator You plug in a projection and it shows you the odds that get different thresholds You put that number of fire projection into the betscope distribution calculator Goddard to get to over 50 receiving yards should be minus 166. So getting that at plus money is interesting I think the projection might be a little bit high. So I'd probably manually lower that a bit personally to somewhere Probably closer to 55 or so But I think that overall the thought process of Goddard potentially being undervalued is something that I would agree with there for that one Let's slip over and talk about Washington because uh, there'll be no JD McKissac here for this game second straight game without him John Dotson's back though. Um, he Reagorated his hamstring injury, but it seems like he'll be good to go here So when you look at the Washington side any props sending out to you there Yeah, I I want to pick your brain on the the running backs For this team, but I mean terry mcclore and his over receiving prop is 49 and a half We know that that hynaki He just loves to pepper this guy with targets like even with jahan being back Curtis annual being in the mix like i'm just trusting Terri mcclore to to go out there I mean now the secondary is good for the eagles But he's also had some success in the past and has played with hynaki alex smith Carson wins in these passable matchups So it really doesn't matter who the quarterback is back there When we're talking about the anytime touchdown market And this is kind of where I want to pick your brain and that like brian robinson at plus 230 It is one that I'd be willing to take a shot on. I mean he's still been out carrying Antonio gibson For whatever that's worth and without mccistic I expect or I would predict antonio gibson to be more involved on passing downs and let brian robinson get going But he struggled um, he struggled mightily the past couple of weeks So i'm not sure if there's a change of guard there I mean antonio gibson was supposed to be the returner is what ron reverie told us like to start this season We wouldn't even think about him being in the mix at this point, but brian robinson's story is just kind of so crazy And i'm wondering, you know This is me trying to think of the narratives and i'll be real quick at this I'd love to think outside the box with things, you know me Everything that was kind of surrounding washington right like in the news around brian robinson and what was going on with the I believe the attorney general there in washington and just how the Shot uh him getting shot was made public and taking about with everything going on politically Like is this a chance for them to kind of like entrust in brian robinson Give him the carries and give him, you know that momentum to say that the team's around him So I feel like they owe it to him at this point Like if they're gonna like use him as a way as like a crutch to get out of this thing like They should as like a oh, we're sorry. We did that to you kind of thing, right? Like It was pretty pretty you're apprehensible. They were doing that. So maybe extend a little fig leaf, you know, like, hey Sorry bud Our organization sucks He was they were so excited about him and everything about the preseason was just like this is our guy like they invested That's a high draft pick and getting him in there. So, you know, I'm trying to maybe Write that ship with him But you know on monday night football with everybody watching could be something to monitor So one that's related to that My initial like thought process when I was thinking about this game was okay. I want to look at Antonio gibson receiving props and I looked at his yardage number is 23 and a half, but it's the The over is minus 128. That's A lot of confidence in a in a volatile market. So I'm not quite willing to get there But like, okay, I'll look at his rushing plus receiving number and in the process I saw that a gibson's rushing prop was 33 and a half That seems really high because of the robinson involvement early downs You think about this there are two paths to an under for gibson at 33 and a half. The first one is You know, he's just not involved and I think that's as a rush I should say as a receiver. He will be involved. I can almost guarantee that The other path is the eagles defensive line just torches the offensive line again They can't get anything going on the ground and I think that's a very real possibility as well Um Eagles rush defense is not great. However, they are 10 and a half point favorites Um, it's going to be a split backfield I think that kind of playing off what you were saying I think if I were looking at this game the place I'd want to go Would be the gibson under rushing yards at 33 and a half. I think that's a little bit too high With the way they've been using these two guys specifically using mckissick Or sorry, uh gibson as a pass catcher and robinson is kind of the early down bruiser type guy Yeah, no that yeah, I I can get behind that absolutely for sure. I mean gibson's been a He he's got a place in my heart for you know playing bfs. Um, you know a couple times in him helping me out Um, but uh, yeah, it's been it's been a rough go for him. I mean you just look at that guy and it's probably Time for a change of scenery. Um almost like just let him move on to to another team and and be able to Blossom elsewhere, but uh, but yeah, I like that under rushing yards for him as well too because I I do think that you know With brian robinson leading the way with carries the past couple weeks if he can you know get any type of juice going They'll just ride the hot hand Yeah, um I also have a soft spot for him yet. I think it was Thanksgiving. He had like three touchdowns against the cowboys Um, I remember that one fondly. Yeah, uh good for him. He'll always have a spot soft spot in my heart But we'll take the under tonight and uh, see what happens there. Okay. You mentioned the robinson touchdown prop That's plus 230 Is that one where you're willing to bet or anyone else any others or shit? You're seeing that you like for tonight Yeah, of course, I'll definitely be willing to back up put my money where my mouth is on brown robinson at plus 230 I also think dallas goddard. Um at plus 200. Um, is there a pretty fair number? Um, when you're looking at all things consider and then jaylin hurts just any time that we get plus money On a rushing quarterback of that magnitude to you know score one I'm always going to be willing to take that plus 100 like why why not? When they get into the red zone, uh, we know that he's apt to kind of take it off and run Especially if they're on the one yard line, uh, just keep you sneak it there. Um, so really really that's what i'm liking For this team quest walkins is interesting just because of his deep threat You're looking at plus 850 for him to score I think he just scored one last week if i'm not mistaken. I mean he's been utilized A lot when you're talking about the past catchers outside of the top three that we mentioned. So Plus 850 that's a nice number to to get on somebody who's seeing the field as much as he is Yeah, I think that is intriguing for sure just because he'll be out there So that's you're gonna give yourself a shot by playing snaps the one that I Thought about ultimately will not wind up firing on is jahan dotson. He's plus 490 And we've seen him when he's been healthy being like this touchdown threat. He was at a penn state He was that uh before his injury seems like he's healthy The reason I couldn't talk myself into it is kind of what you discussed at the beginning with the under 43 and a half I think this game probably wants a being low scoring So and my numbers think that one of these teams is justifiably attended a half point favorite. So I think there's a path to washington just not doing a whole lot So even though I I was intrigued by that the overall fear of washington just dropping a dud prevented me from Getting dots net plus 490 Um, so that was that was my kind of hang up was I agree with you where I think we could see a few points here So to me the touchdown market wound up being less fruitful than I thought it might be I thought I'd be looking at dots and maybe maybe gibson looking at the because of the passing stuff But I couldn't quite get to either just because I think this game could be kind of gross Yeah, and it doesn't really factor in for me at all Just a straight up question because I don't think this is the first game that johan doxon is playing Without karsten wintz. This is the first hynaki in doxon. Yeah, okay Yeah, so I would have to look at see like if there's any numbers for them like preseason related or anything like that Um, but yeah, I was I was hoping that we'd get over five to one I'm on a touchdown. I mean, I think he's just an awesome player. Um, so definitely, you know, getting him back healthy is just awesome to see Um, but yeah interested in that uh, taylor hynaki also alternate passing yards like over plus over 220 is plus money Yeah, I mean i'm just gonna take that because I think that it's going to be a long long day for them Yeah, i'm looking at 225 passing yards for him at plus 114 250 is two to one Um, and we know he has the propensity to throw the rock. So i'm willing to get in on that market He's a degaff or two which is to your benefit in this market where he'll just chuck and pray and it doesn't always Do what it's supposed to because it's got kind of a noodle arm But like hey, I mean negative game script gonna be playing from behind probably not gonna be able to run super well I don't mind that at all. So uh, hynaki, uh over 220. He said plus 114 on that one Plus yeah, plus 114 on 225 Okay, perfect. Well, we'll check out that one as well There has been some money coming in on the commander's money line while we were talking apparently because that uh Eagle's money line is down to minus 550 not again not quite enough where I bet it where it's currently at but Did take that one earlier on in the week So we'll see how things play out here and we'll see if we can nail some props to close out the week But that is all that we have here for today for this commanders at eagle's preview as mentioned I'll be back with you once again tomorrow to break down My first thoughts on the week 11 spreads and also talk to ed fang about some some matches in the world cup because we are Not too far down the road from that. We'll talk about some actual individual matches. Are you a world cup guy ryan or no? uh, I I'm not a soccer guy and I don't claim to be but the world cup is fun You know, I like I like getting around the things that happen, you know Every so often every bloom and kind of thing where people can rally behind, you know, there's specific teams and everything like that So I watch for just the enjoyment of that. I do not Pretend to act like I know what's going on or what's happening But it always makes it fun to uh to see those teams compete for sure. Yeah, I know nothing It's like my one excuse to be like quasi patriotic, you know for the us for a little bit So especially for the women's team, but like we can do it for the men's team this year as well So we'll see how that goes. Talk about that on tomorrow's show to get that make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get Your podcast and also check out the fan dual youtube page where the art these are posted as well ryan Appreciate you as always. Good luck to you tonight and we'll talk to you once again thursday for our full week 11 preview Appreciate you jim. Thanks to everybody who's listening. We'll catch you guys next time Alrighty check out ryan on twitter at ryan alexander underscore w. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m S a n n e s. Good luck to all of you tonight. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down Week 11 and talk some world cup. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network