 Hey everyone welcome to another episode of my ASML videos. I've been trading and posting videos about ASML since five months ago. ASML has been going up very nicely but compared to NVIDIA and AMD for example, not that many people seem to be tracking ASML or even know about ASML. That's why I believe it is a great opportunity for me to buy more ASML shares before it becomes one of those high conviction and extremely popular stocks. Let's get into the details. First of all let me review the price forecast I posted on July 21st. At the time I predicted that ASML would be at $750 a share or higher before the end of October 2021 and on July 21st ASML closed at $721. What a distance from my prediction. As of today August 12th it closed at $781. Definitely move in the right direction I predicted and actually went above my target. Will I be setting a new target price? We'll talk about that in the next few minutes. Stay tuned. Since I talked about NVIDIA and AMD and how they compare to ASML, let's look at the price charts. This is a one-year chart based on a daily period. The candlestick chart is ASML. As you can see ASML went up a whopping 108% last year. Certainly extremely impressive. NVIDIA being a very solid company also performed very well. It went up 74% and AMD went up 35%. Not bad. Although it's been flat for a while it only caught on in the last two or three months or so. Now if you look at the broad market QQQ representing the movement of NASDAQ 100 went up about 35% last year and SPY representing the movement of S&P 500 also went up about 35%. Definitely ASML is by far the best performing stock compared to the other ones. Now how about the popularity of ASML or how much is well known to the investors? One way I can look at it is by looking at Google Trends. This is the chart showing the number of Google searches for the three key phrases ASML stock which is represented by the blue line, NVIDIA stock from NVIDIA, the red line and AMD stock the yellow line. As you can see AMD stock the searches definitely were by far the most popular searches. Next to that is NVIDIA stock and then ASML stock was minimal compared to the other searches and that tells me that not that many people are tracking ASML stocks which is good news actually for me because if I were to buy more shares before ASML stock becomes as popular as NVIDIA or AMD and becomes a high conviction stock I expect to be able to realize a lot of profit by the time ASML gets to be as popular as the other two stocks. However this is not quite the time to buy it tomorrow or the day after maybe even. I will explain why. The other thing that you want to look at is the PEC ratio. ASML has a PEC ratio of 1.5, NVIDIA of 1.95. Usually a high PEC ratio means the stock is probably overboard and that's why NVIDIA based on the PEC ratio is definitely more overboard than ASML whereas AMD is at 1.35 which is about the same as ASML actually a little bit less overboard than ASML at least from this measurement. In my first video covering ASML I talked about the dominance they have in the EUV lithography market and the DUV lithography market which gives them a virtual monopoly in this segment of market and any semiconductor foundry that wants to produce the most advanced chips will have to purchase the equipment from ASML and that's why they've been growing so rapidly. On July 21st ASML reported their second quarter earnings and it was very positive definitely the stock price picked up because of it. Most importantly the management predicted that their sales will be growing at about 35% in 2021 exceeding the previous target of 30%. We'll talk more about that later. As far as the fat plant investments that have been announced first Intel announced that they will be investing $20 billion in new fat plants in the next couple years. Taiwan semiconductors announced that they will be investing $100 billion in the next three years and Samsung said they will be investing $300 billion through 2030 and then the EU said they would be investing also in fat plants although they didn't announce exact amount of money they will be investing but most recently as of July 26 it was reported that Taiwan semiconductor is in the process of negotiating with several German entities to talk about building fat plants in Germany. So all these new fat plants will of course lead to more sales for ASML with the EUV machines and EUV machines. That's certainly good business for ASML. Let's look at the company's sales and EPS. You can see here the sales have been grown very steadily since 2012 and the black lines ASML. NVIDIA is their blue line basically since 2016 and two of them have been going side-by-side and then the yellow line is AMV a little bit lower and then EPS ASML growth has been pretty steady and NVIDIA is about the same as ASML in the last four or five years and AMD was actually running losses all the way through 2016 and then picked up nicely in the last three or four years. Overall if you look at the EPS growth for ASML they've been growing at 23% since 2012 and most recently since 2016 they have been growing at 30% rate and of course based on the most recent management presentation during the second quarter earnings announcement the management said that they forecasted 2021 sales growth to be at 35% and that's definitely very bullish. If you like what you've seen so far I'd like to suggest that you click the like subscribe and notification button so that you'll be notified when I publish next ASML video also it'll encourage me to make more videos like this in the future. Thank you very much let's move on. In my last video I showed my calculations of the value of ASML. Primarily I look at the industry figures for trailing P ratio forward P ratio and PEC ratios and then I use assumption of 29.8 EPS annual growth and 45% forward P ratio and I arrive at these stock prices for 2021-22 and 2023 and from this range I decided to set a short-term target of $750 a share and based on price movement in the last few weeks I am increasing my target to $850 a share to be achieved by the end of November 2021 and you can see that the high range is actually more like a thousand but I usually like to be a little bit more conservative. Later on a surprise continues to move up I will most likely revise my target upwards and I will inform my subscribers by with my Twitter messages. Let's look at the analyst opinions I will be comparing the analyst opinions as of today compared to the opinions as of July 21st 2021 that's when I published my last ASML video. First of all the closing price back then it was $721 a share now the $781.07 definitely went up a lot. My target back then was $750 a share now it is $850. Yahu business pretty much maintain everything the same with a buy rating with a high target of $820 a little bit lower than my target and Louis Neville here actually upgraded them from an overall B rating to an A rating and he upgraded them from a buy to a strong buy that's very bullish. TipRanks.com pretty much keeps everything the same CN Money upgraded their high target from 945 to 966 and median target from 730 to 800. The Street.com upgraded their high target from 923 to 1043. Let's look at the chart this is a daily chart for the last three months and this jump here is on a day when they announced the earnings since it was a very positive earnings report that's why the price jumped up and we can see that the price has been following this nice bullish upward channel since May of this year and most recently since about July 19th the price has broken above this channel but in the last four or five days it has come down a little bit and at this point if the price continues to go down it might be getting support from this upper boundary of the original channel or it might dip below that and then in that case we'll get support from the lower boundary if you look at RSI it was at a pretty high point around five days ago and not surprisingly it started to go sour a little bit and even started to go down if you look at the last couple times when RSI got to be nearly as high we saw dip at this point all the way to the middle bullish event at 20 day moving average and here actually the price went all the way to the lower bullish event and that's why I'm not going to be surprised at the price for the short term hit the middle bullish event although I don't think the price will hit this point the lower bullish event anytime soon unless some negative news breaks out in the next couple weeks I'll be watching for the recovery of ASML price in the next few days and that's when I will go in and buy more shares now if you look at DMI it turned bullish about three weeks ago is still bullish as for MACD it also turned bullish about three weeks ago but it just started to turn bearish and that's why it's not exactly the right time for me to buy the stock yet even though long-term I'm very bullish about ASML but I firmly believe that fundamental analysis needs to become a vial technical analysis the fundamental says yes it's a good stop to buy but the technical analysis says Dan wait for a few days until the price starts to turn around this is the hourly chart and with this chart we see actually a downward sloping triangle with this line which is horizontal and it represents a very strong support point when the price start to hit this line and in fact this line is at 778 it is on the Fibonacci extension chart 50% level I'll talk more about that in the next couple minutes this here is a critical point hopefully the price will be supported here and start to go up and if that happens I'll be buying more shares and if it goes below that I'll be waiting until it hits the next support level look at ISI we're at a very high point here and I surprisingly the price started to go down for DMI we see a bearish sell signal here for MACD we also see a bearish sell signal here today and that's why it's important for me to wait for the hourly chart to turn bullish again before I buy more shares I already own some shares that I'm holding for the long term let's look at the support and resistance levels I've drawn a Fibonacci extension diagram I use this point on May 10th as a minimum and this point around July 14th as a maximum point for support I see the next level 778 which is right here and that's actually the bottom of that descending triangle we're looking at 778 which is a Fibonacci 50% chart the next support level will be at 764 which is the mode of bowling Japan and Fibonacci 34% and that will also be a very strong support point and the next support point will be 747 Fibonacci 23% and next support point will be 719 Fibonacci 0% for resistance and next level up will be 792 which is the Fibonacci 61% and next level up will be the all-time high at 809 and the next level up will be 812 Fibonacci 78% and next level up will be 837 Fibonacci 100%. What are my strategies as usual I'll be buying ASML stock during dips and when it bounces from a support level or when positive news breaks out and I'll sell some of my shares when it drops at key resistance level or when adverse news breaks out and because I'm very bullish about the fundamentals of ASML I'll be holding certain number of shares for the long term I'll be monitoring current events related to the semiconductor industry and specifically related to ASML of course and I will send messages to my Twitter subscribers when I buy or sell ASML shares or when major news breaks out that's related to the company. At this point I'd like to encourage you to also subscribe to my Twitter account which is DanMarketL in addition to subscribing to my YouTube channel. For example I tweeted on July 16 that in light of the S&P 500 inclusion at Moderna I'm raising my price target for Moderna to 300. Actually since then I have increased the target to $450 a share and also I just bought more Moderna on that day. Again I'd like to encourage you to click the like subscribe and notification button if you like what you've watched so far and as usual I very much welcome your comments questions and suggestions. Thank you for watching all the way to here. Let me recap my price forecast I predict the price to be at $850 a share before the end of November 2021. At this point I like to remind you that I'm not a financial advisor I share my stock trading strategies and my analysis for educational purpose only. If you want to buy or sell stocks you should make your own decision and you should definitely consult with your financial advisors before you do so. This about wraps up my video for now. I will chat with you again in the next few days. In the meanwhile I'd like to wish you the very best of luck with your financial investments. Have a wonderful day.