 Okay, very good morning to you. I hope you had a fantastic weekend It is Monday the 19th of July so as per normal gonna Encapsulate some of the major news from this weekend where we can talk about things like the OPEC deal between Saudi predominantly in the UAE Can have a quick check-in on oil prices. Let's talk about the week ahead as well We've got things like the ECB meeting on Thursday and we've got the flash PMI data is coming out on Friday So amongst other things there's some of the major things that I'll touch upon but I'm actually off today and tomorrow, but Fear not I'll continue to live deliver the briefings as per normal in the morning I know it kind of helps set out the stall for the day ahead So more than happy to jump on each morning and deliver these so please do like and subscribe to the channel If you're watching this on YouTube, I'd really appreciate that But otherwise look let's get straight to it and talk about the charts this morning And there's a little bit of risk-off trade being observed Or be it very moderate so at the reopening of electronic trade last night and generally in Asia Pacific session equities have traded south and so index futures seen lower across the board if I just check in here technically from a Chart perspective Excuse me the DAX has seen quite a nice technical setup Where you've just had the previous areas of support and resistance or an inflection point for price over the course of the last What two weeks or so we're just coming up finding a bit of a cap to that at the moment as we get underway in European trade So a bit of consolidation here in the DAX for the moment You've got the S1 setting just above the bottom end of the range There was printed overnight the APAC session and that upside level around 15 447 as upside near-term Resistance from those previous lows that was seen back on the 9th and then high and low seen back before that and so at the moment Index futures they said a little bit lower the NASDAQ pretty similar in its setup for the time being following the Late rollover and price that we saw going into the close on Friday A generally negative finish to the end of that week. And so now we've got a bit of a short term upside area of resistance from those previous lows and highs here at 14 656 as we just come up to test that at the moment With a bit of a recovery Just as european players start to come in In terms of the age of PAC session from equity perspective That's leading to some of that movement The Nikkei was pressured early on by haven flows into the yen albeit i'd say that has moderated More over the course of the last couple of hours. It was more at the initial open on sunday night virus fears Still in focus as well first covid 19 cases confirmed that the olympic athletes village just days before of course the start of the tokyo 2020 games The hangsang shanghai con were also negative just more unrest happening with frictions amid the us-china ongoing Or somewhat lack of dialogue after the bind administration issued hong kong related sanctions And highlighted the growing risk to china's democracy crackdown in hong kong Despite threats they made those comments by china to retaliate to such action Now also losses exacerbated particularly more evident in the hangsang by the tech sector Still somewhat weighed upon by lingering concerns of tighter regulation by beijing and then on friday as well china's military also conducted a beach assault drill As a warning to us and taiwan so although that has Things like that have happened before it's kind of a number of things to explain why there's some under performance still ongoing in china at the moment But overall other asset classes what's going on With the dollar as a touch firmer and i do want to talk about the dollar specifically this morning from a technical perspective Cable just finding a bit of a short term Top on price recovery seen late in apac trading hours and around the low that was seen I'm just going into the close on friday around 137 62 here in the sterling future of course the so-called freedom day today and we'll talk about that and Some uk politics over the weekend, which i'm sure you read about the p.m. Now self self isolating But we'll touch that in a moment. You're a dollar slightly negative But not really too much dramatic and fashion at the moment from a technical perspective that really stands out for the time being as you can see Having generally been slowly trending lower here over the course of the last two or three weeks From a from a currency perspective the one thing I did want to touch upon with the dollar was this And this is taking a look at non-commercial traders That have been positioned short on the dollar against other major currency since the kovid crisis hit and us interest rates fell toward those in other Countries remember it was kind of this ongoing dovish mantra from the fed that created that short positioning In what we've been seeing in cftc data But now as you can see these these kind of green wave patterns here Is the short positioning is getting less and less and less and now with the fit the fed started to hint about tapering to come Traders have basically reduced their positions so that we are essentially Neutral and again, this would be the first time since basically the onset of the pandemic now I don't find this particularly surprising as we Kind of tiptoe towards then getting to the point of tapering and certainly Although powers generally holding the line and we are moving ever closer towards having those more detailed discussions about tapering It's not a matter of if but when so this was always going to happen Um, but this has coincided with the slight rebound in the dollar And it could be a sign of things to come you would expect then that to overall switch and Just given the situation where other central banks like the european Central bank are so far behind the curve Um, then we could well see start to see a bit of disparity where dollar positioning starts to switch to long Which could be a weighted factor just generally speaking if we're looking at the dollar index It is kind of Poised for a bit of a break You can see we've been here The acceleration in the dollar price really kicked off After the hawkish f.o.m.c. We saw back on the 16th of june And since that point we've just found a bit of a hiatus and we've started to consolidate just under the 93 level Which does kind of come in with this trend line from september November April or march april and then where we're at at the moment So if it did break higher a quick run up towards that What would be the late march 30 first high About 93 44 and then back up a key level there would be here You can see the initial pandemic low that we saw on the onset of the pandemic before the safe haven rally commenced That coincided with around that top of price recovery that we saw back in september So 95 generally is the big target there Going further forward Certainly a lot of other things to monitor but but definitely quite interesting for the medium term perspective Generally the dollar then are touched stronger this morning. So precious metals just suffering a little bit Just right on cue gold just breaking down through the technical levels of support. You can see here going back to What was What last wednesday session and seeing off the floor of price Points down on friday sessions. So a bit of an extension of Weakness here in gold on the break break of that technical move with some dollar strength this morning Just probably targeting down down to around these lows that were seen midpoint of last week at 1805 So down about nine bucks there in the yellow metal silver as you would imagine Also precious space following suits just printing session lows as we speak Otherwise the other thing or major things to talk about from the weekend, which you probably caught was OPEC headlines. So OPEC and its allies struck a deal Saudi Arabia meeting the UAE basically halfway in its demand for a more generous output limit They basically had a very quick Convened meeting on sunday ahead of the Islamic Long holiday happening this week for Eid Allowing for monthly supply hikes of 400,000 barrels per day. So before I get into some of the details here The overall impact on price was absolutely minimal WTI crude I was at my desk last night because I just wanted to check in at 11 p.m To see the initial opening print and there was a little bit of volatility the opening price was actually If I go back to this candle Here on it. Excuse me here This candle was the opening price for WTI crude last night was here And it was really tame to be quite fair As we went into the overnight apac session away from the OPEC deal generally sentiment overnight a little bit negative A lot of focus on the covid front in the far east So therefore perhaps just impacting a little bit on demand sentiment We just drifted a little bit south but you can see a lot of that very short lived And in fact, we've we've seen a bit of recovery and just pivot providing a bit of near-term Resistance on that that price reversal from the overnight lows. So overall very minor impact to The the latest OPEC comments. I don't really want to go into it too much And largely that's because the 400k and the agreement that did come is all pretty much expected You remember what I was talking about a lot of briefings over the last two weeks or so since the inability to make a deal I've always had the view that the UAE are just make they're just taking advantage of the situation Looking to leverage that to make a better deal for themselves And so whilst that they can the price trading where it is It's time to call some headaches basically and look to extract a little bit of a better Outcome for yourself and you could argue that they have done so The UAE's level will be increased now to 3.5 million barrels per day That is below the expected 3.8 million it was demanding when it blocked the OPEC deal earlier this month But it's an increase from 3.17 million. So Hence the kind of art of negotiation, right? You put it out there quite a big figure at 3.8 You're currently at 3.17. They meet you halfway at 3.5 job done You've just earned yourself a couple of extra hundred thousand barrels a day So I don't think it was that surprising to be honest. The numbers are in fitting The next meeting is Well, nothing is said in stone is what some analysts were saying OPEC plus will still continue to hold talks every month Including a review of the market in December It could adjust the schedule of required according to the Saudis The next meeting is on the 1st of september. However, the baseline adjustments Won't alter the pace of the 400,000 barrel per day monthly output increases when they take effect next year So, yeah, overall, I would say not I don't think a particularly Big deal comparative to market expectations But definitely I'd be interested just to see how Crude settles as we go into the north american session today to see how our friends across the pond really digest that news as well When they come in later The other thing from a news perspective, you probably read plenty about because of the Absolute debacle between three of britain's most senior cabinet ministers In a so boris johnson and russia schoonack the chancellor are going to be self isolating As of today after sigi javid the newly appointed health secretary tested positive Despite being fully vaccinated on on saturday. He came out on that and then there was this dramatic row over self isolation because Johnson and sonac were trying to get away that they were part of some pilot program Which meant that they wouldn't have to self isolate and they basically you turned I was looking at the alerts on my phone from sky news and it was Pretty much within an hour the amount of backlash that those guys got sonac came out and you turned and stealthy would Said he was self isolate so away from the kind of political headlines couple of things to be aware of for one some 530,000 people were forced to isolate last week after being contacted by the authorities by this kind of pinged by test and trace and You know, why is that an important thing? Well, I do think it is quite important because Even where I am I live very close to a school And there's a whole the whole street I mean any one of the certain age will will know that people move within catchment areas of schools and so on So everyone on the road is kind of their kids goes to these schools And everyone's at home can't go to work because a people's had it an entire year has had to self isolate impacting then All of the families and households of that of the street pretty much and a lot of that's being echoed across the country at the moment And it is creating quite substantial labor shortages And so factories pubs restaurants public transport This 10-day isolation rule is having quite a big impact. I mean even a pub. I was at the weekend Um, it was literally there's no food because there was no chefs because because Because they're all just from different pockets of different pubs that they work at where various self isolations were happening And they couldn't run it. So I do think this is quite a big thing because the government is set to exempt the double jabbed from self isolation If they're contacted by test and trace, but that's not going to kick in for about another month until august 16 So in the meantime, according to the adam smith institute 5.2 million people could be self isolating By that point and that's up from the current 1.73 million And obviously that will have a degree of economic impact, of course So just something to be aware of I don't think it's necessarily a big sterling negative this morning But there's a couple of things here that I am monitoring and for one is well You know, what is the covid situation? Well, we kind of know this the uk is heading into this latest reopening At a point where case numbers are increasing rapidly at this point in time. I think we're up at the high 50 thousands at the weekend um And that number is expected to head up to 100k And then as far as hospitalization is concerned again This looks very different to the case chart because still comparative to the beginning of the year Thankfully touch wood the number of hospitalized Patients is particularly low And hence the reason why the uk government's pushing ahead with that strategy, but I would say three or Yeah, three things I'm looking out for really that could well start to influence the pound in a potentially more negative way So for one this test and trace How many people is it affecting because it it could well Lead to a degree of labor shortages. So again the kind of reference numbers are That was about 530,000 last week were forced to self isolate And then the number being put out there by the adam smith institutes 5.2 million by mid august so again, how far or not do we exceed these types of numbers as the The the kind of self isolation numbers start to accumulate over the coming month And then the other thing is I would say a hundred thousand cases. I know I say this with Full understanding that this is a hugely Kind of negative development. This is a really testing and challenging time for many people in their lives But I'd say a hundred thousand cases is very much baked into price as is a thousand hospitalizations So for me tracking those numbers I don't think it's really relevant to really track them until they start until we start modeling them out And they start to show that they're going to exceed those numbers And if that is the case, I think then you could see some negativity translate into the sterling currency So for now, it's too early really to say But that's how I'd be looking at it And then before I get into the the kind of week ahead and what the economic calendar looks like We do have earning season started to pick up a little bit of pace. So this 79 s and p 500 companies reporting this week including nine of the dowl 30 components And the highlights here just running through them. So aftermarket today, you've got IBM Tomorrow aftermarket, you've got the lights of netflix Their shares have been obviously on the recovery of late Given the fact that as well they had a little bit of volatility on that whole gaming headline We had last week, but be interested to see how their subscriber numbers hold up And then wednesday pre-market coca-cola j and j verizon asml from the chip maker side on thursday TNT pre-market intel twitter snap some of the social media names aftermarket closed then on friday You've got amix chalmage honeywell kimberley-clark some of the larger cap names to be on the lookout for So not until the following weeks when we start to get some of the mega cap tech names And then for the calendar for today, it's super quiet There literally is really nothing of greater magnitude happening today And so really we start to look ahead towards the week And it is a very quiet week in fact in terms of how data is concerned tuesday tomorrow You get you know, june housing starts from the us But really the main events are twofold ecb meeting thursday flash PMIs on friday So what are we to expect from the ecb? Well, it's just two weeks after agreeing on its first strategic overhaul in almost two decades In what promises to be potentially a lively debate among members of the guidance that we give on the path of interest rates And its bond purchases Sources over the weekend said the ecb reportedly disagreed on stimulus guidance drafts for this And a july 22nd meeting while talks on bond buying coincidences sources Will reportedly not happen until the september meeting and i definitely think i agree with that latter point I think it's way too early to give More kind of detail on the on the bond buying side So again, i'll i'll be back by then and more detailed preview our issue On the morning of thursday and i'll be covering that all live of course And then on friday probably the main data then is the eurozone flash PMIs The june figures. So again, it's july figures. We're going to be getting so last month's june figures Which are shy of euphoric Is what the analysts at i and g are terming them and the question though now is whether the extreme Positive outlook of the economy has been maintained Despite the delta variant taking hold in the eurozone, of course, which we know now Restrictive measures being reinstated supply side problems continuing for manufacturing As well So how high is that kind of confidence remained amongst these person managers about their general outlook given those circumstances We also get the uk PMIs and we also get uk retail sales for june also due on friday as well But that's pretty much it we're going to end it there. I'll let you guys get on with the day As i said, i'm not around For the next two days, but i will continue to deliver my morning note and this briefing Just so you're all set for the day. So otherwise i'll catch up with you guys on on wednesday All right, good luck today and for the week ahead. Thanks for my friends. Thanks very much. Excuse me