 Welcome to the session on what are the lessons of Columbia's peace deal with the FARC for ending other civil wars. My name is Dr. Nettie Eidler. I am the director of studies at the changing act of war program at the University of Oxford and I'm delighted to introduce our speaker Juan Carlos Pinzón, the ambassador of Colombia to the United States since 2015. Throughout his career Ambassador Pinzón has been a leader in both the public and private sectors and most recently from 2011 to 2015 he was he served as the minister of defense in Colombia and under his leadership the Colombian Armed Forces weakened the country's insurgent groups the ELN and the FARC, the major rebel group as well as several other violent non-state groups which was critical in the run-up to the peace deal last year. Before we start the session I was told to give you the polling instructions so to get involved in the discussion the polling team is going to put a question on the screen and you can vote using your cell phones to join the session you should text future of war 2017 to 22333 and then you will be able to vote on each poll so the questions and the directions I was on the slides the questions is will the peace deal with the FARC and the Colombian government hold over the next decade should be on the screen now so please if you could pull and just text ABC or yes or no to the same number great okay let's see everyone ready great Ambassador Pinzón Colombia has had a civil war for more than five decades with several guerrilla groups involved parameters it has been struck by the drug trade as well what was at the height in the 90s there have been several failed peace process as well now last year the government and the FARC they finally signed a crucial peace deal in September but even that was very dramatic we saw after that peace deal in September the plebiscite held in in October where the PC was rejected afterwards the PC was revised a revised version was signed in November was passed by Congress and now we do finally have an ongoing demobilization process with the FARC now it's too early to say anything about the sustainability of that peace but it's definitely a historic landmark achievement now you've been Minister of Defense under President Santos during the peace negotiations how would you describe was your work relevant to the peace deal that was finally signed last year well first of all thank you it's a great honor to be here when I was invited to these wonderful event on the future of war I felt very very honored not only personal honor but honestly to tell the story of Colombia which is a beautiful story special in the city where the United States play a very important role in the changes and transformation we have had in our country well let me tell you there's nothing I did I think and I believe that we will need to honor the Colombian military and police and servicemen forever they were the ones who granted peace to Colombia with a lot of sacrifice and the reason why we will need to make this piece to work is because we need to honor those who fought very hardly to obtain peace and this future to Colombia now how we did it I think first of all there's a lot of story of leadership in Colombia I think we had different leaders for a long period of time 15 years that were fully committed to the idea of regaining territorial control to establishing the rule of law in the country and somehow to protect our citizens as a main goal and that those goals were always maintained and of course we did different levels of planning at operational level tactical level and so on and we review that very much unfortunately small wars or counter insurgency wars or four generation warfare as you want to call it is not the kind of war people likes to talk about and usually you don't get these great grand strategy planners talking about this but unfortunately this is the kind of war that usually happens this is the most common kind of war it happens everywhere it happens all the time and it requires a lot of commitment and a lot of effort because it's not just defeating a military capability of an opponent that you have to by the way you need to weaken those capabilities but at the same time you need to create a social cohesion a credibility in the society protection to the people and at the same time defeat your enemies aims so what we're doing Columbia with this level leadership with Columbia and taxpayer money by the way you know wasn't Colombian resources was Colombian soldiers and police who fought and died for this and of course our democracy we kept our democratic values we stick to what the people wanted and of course to the rule of law sometimes even having to make strong decisions on the protection of human rights because of the consequence of misbehavior at different points in history but at the end that allow Colombia to be transformed probably from the most violent country in the western hemisphere having the two most violent cities in the world by the end of the 90s to a country that today has the lowest security indicators in 40 years has over performed in its economy most of its peers in the past decade and we have cut poverty by half and why set this to end this point this was not just a military security campaign it was a national campaign to pave the way to peace in a way that we were not only attacking the terrorists the drug traffickers which by the way were the largest in the western hemisphere ever to be confronted but also we were putting in place public policies precisely trying to make the state work that's the challenge in the years to come thank you I'm by the pinstone well yes it's true that the the campaign obviously weakened the FARC but we also know that it has pushed the conflict more towards the periphery and I remember for example I was in in Arawka at the border between Ecuador between Venezuela and Colombia and the south one of the main war zones in 2012 when the peace negotiations were announced back then homicides rates there were 72 per 100,000 which is much much higher than than the global average we also know that in those modernized areas right now there are still challenges because the FARC is not the only group present there so just to think about the current situation right now we have a peace deal but what are the main challenges that are still in front of us and I would just mention three that I think are critical the first one is that there are many different other non-set actors that feel the power vacuums left behind by the FARC the second one that there is still state neglect in those modernized areas and the third one is how to address the issue of a restructured security architecture in the country so if you could just look at those issues first one FARC is not the only group and right now what we see in the country is a reshuffling of those groups constellations that comes with more violence we know for example that the EPL one of those groups they have in a certain region they have more members now between 400 and 500 members than the FARC used to have in that territory and we know that some others just change their labels rather than necessarily demobilizing now there was a risk there was obvious before already that there might be a power vacuum filled by other groups why did the government let this vacuum emerge and how can it be addressed in the future to make sure that those other groups will not take over well first store of Colombia his story of conflict when you go back and see 200 years over history many many years of those 200 years have been in the middle of different kinds of conflict in a study with it for the period 1880 to 1945 we found that we had at that time in just that period of time for conflicts so we know how to end conflicts but we know as the at the same time that those can come back with different face what I foresee and what I believe and is the national commitment and interest right now is that we need to take this opportunity of these conflict that we are just ending to really make all the things that need to be done in order for this piece to stay for instance there are areas in the country in which we have regained control by the presence of the military or the police but that is still required the presence of other agencies of the state these an effort we will need to do very committedly and very strongly probably for the next decade we need to assure that we can integrate those areas into the country another effort to create sustainable economic activity alternative to illegally and criminal economic activity unfortunately all these sources of conflict the fog at a point the successors of the FARC the ELN2A criminal bands or whomever we're gonna call them in the future usually profit and excess by that lack of presence of the state but in essence funded by activities like drug trafficking that is always there if you don't compete with something or criminal mining illegal mining if we don't compete with something or human trafficking this is why we're seeking as we did during the war phase plan Colombia as a key element we're seeking now these new package that we call peace Colombia to the future and that program is crucial because we need to bring and take security but at the same time all these alternative activities and that will not happen by magic will not happen just because we say it here it will happen because we will need to be as effective as we were implementing a plan for 15 years to degrade the FARC to 30% of what they were we will need to do the same kind of effort but now to take development to those areas in a way that can be sustainable and that for instance instead of people cultivating coca which is one of the nightmares of Colombia we can hope them to cultivate palm oil chocolate or different products that can be connected to the country but how do you do that you need to take roads you need to create an economic process that allows that to that to happen and finally and very important we cannot undermine our security forces we need to always improve them adapt them make them flexible to you know be responsible for the new realities on the current environment but we need those armed forces to be strong enough to give the guarantees to Colombian people that they can prevail and that they can assure security for the people and for us for all those agencies and private sector that needs to come there that's the concept and is a very challenging effort but this is what we need to do and this is how we're gonna make it happen thank you what that already relates to to the second challenge that I see you mentioned the guarantees that are necessary for people you also mentioned development which is crucial and the second challenge to sustainable peace really is that there will be new conflicts new grievances in those marginalized areas in November I was in in tomaco you might know is one of the well most difficult places also beautiful places in here beautiful and difficult places in Colombia and some of the leaders I talked to they were mentioning to me well what should we do now without the fog we don't have protection anymore who's going to protect us who's going to take care of us there was no sign of state prison there was no sign of protection we've seen recently the reports the very concerning reports about dozens of human rights defenders who have been killed now after the signing of the peace deal so there is quite a big risk that these grievances will fuel new conflicts that frustrated farmers will lend themselves as easy recruits for other groups as well and how can all those promises of bringing the state in how can they actually be translated into implementation so how will you going to make the step from having those plans of territorial peace and of bringing the state in to actually see changes on the ground so that you don't lose the faith and the the belief of all those people I think it's very important not to lose sight on the size and you know the way Colombia is designed just for many of you to remember Colombia is two times the size of Texas or is two times the size of Germany has 50 million people and has something like 11th hundred municipalities the municipalities Annette is describing are mainly 50 or 60 in the country that are of course in those marginal areas that really have some or very much unstable situation that require to be integrated in the country how are we going to do it the way we did it with the previous 500 you know because if I go back 15 years ago probably from 15 years ago was that those 500 other municipalities were precisely under that situation so this is a process we need to move on in a in an effective way now hummus are waiting today in Colombia is the lowest in 40 years so of course when we think about the homicides that are happening we're very concerned just one and this is a big change in Colombia makes our system to be worried but if I think what was happening five 10 15 years ago this is another world so can we protect these people yes we can how are we going to do it of course on one side implementing the agreements those need to be implemented probably sometimes we'll need to be improved a long time that's the thing that we will need to see how by trial and error if I if I said but on the other side by the presence of the armed forces that's the only true protection people have you know and if we can continue to bring those armed forces in an early way not anymore necessarily for offensive operations in certain areas just their presence is required I keep looking to the future of the armed forces and I remember in areas that you know Catatumbo in the world of Venezuela there is a town that is frankly speaking some like a 50 miles from one town to the other but it takes more than six hours if you want to you know move in a car so what we did we put the military engineers to do a road there the road is already halfway what I was told yesterday by someone from that area that was here in the in town was that that is transforming that region by definition so the probability of using those capabilities of our military and our police to bring security now through other operational capabilities is very important but of course you know that there's this hesitation coming out of the agreements that are required to be complied there's always in a peace process an issue of trust so you know each side has a needs time to really trust that things are moving on the right way as we speak you know a DDR process disarmament demobilization and reintegration process is expected to happen the FARC for the first time is concentrating we have as you well described in history some failures in peace processes but several successes as well so as we're moving we are with a lot of obstacles we expect and we should expect more obstacles but we are moving towards the objective of this disarmament process so maybe then let's look at the at the third challenge which is very much related to the demobilization process um and you said yes it has started already but how can this actually be coordinated there were issues the demobilization camps were not ready on time um there was a lack of coordination which is obviously also a challenge right now because it means that all the different agencies have to work together if you could give one lesson of what to do and one of what not to do in this very specific context of the demobilization that we can learn from Colombia what would those levels be one thing that you should know and maybe the audience should know today is that demobilization in Colombia has been a process that is ongoing for many years so during wartime i can tell you that during my time as minister of defense we were able to move from three demobilized persons of different guerrilla organizations to five per day and this is people that comes looking and seeking for protection of the state and they were hoping to regain their families regain their future now we are probably one of the few countries in the world that because of that created some years ago a reintegration agency so we have an established reintegration agency doesn't work perfectly is full of challenges you know many things can happen but we have an institution that can provide some lessons learned and evolve to the future now when you set lessons i have to tell you that you know every time you look other countries problem apparently there's always a common ground for a response and that is the need of interagency coordination and in this time of history is not only internal interagency coordination but also international and local interagency coordination and that is so easy to say and all of us know that that's the thing to do but that's so hard to happen and you know here's where operational concepts strong planning and you know very very dedicated resources and effort to make things happen is the whole difference and those who have been successful is because they do that those who doesn't is because they know they have to but somehow they cannot perform and that's always the challenge will continue to be your challenge it's a big challenge ambasero pinzón thank you very much for your time please give some applause to ambasero pinzón thank you it's a time