 Hello traders at CMC Markets. Welcome to another update by RRG Research. This report is for Monday the 12th of June. I'm recording it on Friday the 9th of June. My name is Trevor Neal from RRG Research and I'm coming to you today from London. Let us start, as we always do, looking at the global stock indices. Now here, I think there's some changes taking place. We've had consistent themes, persistent themes going on for some time now. That seems to be changing a little bit. And we'll also look at the foreign exchange market and it may be that the dollar is topping out and if this is so, we're best to capitalise on any move from that. We will start by looking at the major global indices versus cash. Being right of the vertical 100 level here shows relative uptrend in the market and poor uptrend on the left hand side. It's not versus the MSCI world, so it's not versus an average of all the stock markets. It's actually the stock markets per se. Stock markets are doing well, apart from the Russell 2000 and the Hengseung which is going absolutely in the wrong direction. We've still got in the lead, the Nasdaq, and still pointing in the right direction here. Nikkei strong, essentially because of the currency move, the S&P steady, the Dow close to not far away from the cash, so not a big outperformance there. Here are the European indices all bunched up very closely together, correlating with each other, losing some power and the FTSE down here lost power. Just want to look at this story, how it's evolved. It's one of the things we can do with the ROG graphs on Optima. Let's go back in time. We picked up on this Nasdaq story really in January, this dominance, and don't forget the tech stocks suffered last year a severe sell-off, a big correction and where they were overvalued and didn't deserve to be where they were. But that was the dominant theme and then basically at the beginning of the year it changed. And I want to just show you historically how that evolved on the ROG chart. The other thing is the Hengseung, if I click on this here now you can see this graph here. It was very weak on an absolute basis, then it had a strong rally and then it's weakened off again and we'll just concentrate on these two because this was picked up early and really well on ROG. So I'm going to go back now in time to I think this is round about January here now. This is March so I'll go back a bit further. This is February actually, so I'll go back a bit further. Okay, so let's just follow the Hengseung first of all. So this is the Hengseung in January. So here it was, this was it bouncing up, coming up through here and look at the length of the tail in here. This was very rapid change in its fortunes from that downtrend to coming up and moving powerfully forward and watch it turn around here and as it topped out the bounce was complete. We picked this up very clearly here on ROG. So moving forward here now we're at February and then coming down here we move across from leading into a weakening sector and we did that in March and that was the top in the market and then it turned on down here moving very rapidly with a long tail here purposefully towards the lagging quadrant and where we are now and that is us going through the whole process here of up and then down there. Now doing the same thing with the NASDAQ. This is, here is the NASDAQ and this is a bit early but here it is in January. So coming up in here we had European stocks dominating very much in here. The S&P was lagging at this time here. So it was a different story at the time but to watch from January the NASDAQ which was in the tail end of the think that the market that whole sector was a bubble burst and it was a new tech bubble of 1999 again all over again. That was the thinking at that time. But then on a relative basis we began to see it rise up and add a little bit of a wobble there and then here and it shot across into the leading quadrant in March. Now in February we could see it was on its way there. Heading in the right direction very strongly here and still behind things like the stocks and the DAX but in the right direction whereas there they were beginning to wobble and turn down which they did here but the NASDAQ off powerfully longer tail was being more power in its message and then moving on out to where we are now at point of dominance now. And so that's been the story. This is how you visualise the dominance of the NASDAQ still the case now although what has happened now is that the direction of the other indices US indices is all northeasterly and they're also improving. So this is a feature of something which is happening right now is we've had on its own we've had the dominance of the NASDAQ and the other US indices particularly the Russell the broad market looking rather poor that's changing now they are catching up. So the other indices if you like they people were worried because the breadth was too narrow too much just centred on a few tech stocks but actually the broad market now is beginning to improve. People say it must top out because the breadth isn't there the breadth is following and it's coming. So that's the new story that we're picking up here now. So here is the Russell 2000 index and a much improved chart here. We have still got a pattern of high, lower high, lower high, lower high and lower high intact here but we've got low, same low not yet a double bottom because we haven't broken that apex in between but now we've got rising lows taking place in here. This low around 16,000 was at this January 2020 high here which was a support level for it so it's looking much much better and I see here that the weekly MACD is crossing to the upside so having crossed down here is crossing up now and so much improved there and the RSI looking very good indeed. So this is much improved. We've broken through this little consolidation here that's quite a big move we've had in the last two weeks up the next resistance level is the 2000 level the round number and this high here but it does look as though it's going to push towards it and so we'll see this catching up of the broad index, the Russell 2 the S&P 2 looking great again. It's broken out of this triangular consolidation here it's cleared that stubborn 42,000 level and then that takes us now up to 43,200 as the next resistance level I don't think that resistance is very strong and I think that could clear for quite a good move maybe even up to 46 where we meet this resistance here from April but it's April last year but it's moving up strongly, higher lows intact in here moving averages 50 and 200 50 powering ahead and the 200 also moving up so the gap widening there that's a strengthening long-term message the MACD is positive and the gap is widening too and the RSI is very strong indeed it's a high reading yes but that's because it's very strong look how in this move here how we were always in this high reading area here now so we've got momentum we've got from the RSI we've got the strengthening trend indicated by the MACD crossing to the upside and we've got weak resistance ahead so this looks set to do its catching up process with the NASDAQ in the S&P sectors we haven't really got a change in the picture here we've got out on the right hand side here this is with the weekly sampling the technology and the communications sector both right out on the right hand side holding that position and everything else on the left so the lead is without doubt it's coming from those two and the two weakest ones are energy and financials the banks are still weak as well and no change in that part of the structure of the market and NASDAQ still powering ahead pullback weak but it's in the context of what's going on it's really not much at all the big break was of course the 13,700 break out that released a lot of energy and could take us to this high at 15,200 here which is the next resistance we've got two resistances in there then we've got a consolidation resistance from 15,800 up to the high at 16,700 up in there but we've got energy here so there's a weekly chart but we've got the MACD positive and the gap is widening in it and the RSI powering up tip down because of this weak week here but it really overall the trend is extremely strong and it's doubtful that this on its own could be the... here is the RRG of the Fang Plus group and still over on the right hand side are Meta and NVIDIA both had a little bit of small correction in the last few days but still by far the strongest and moving like rockets we'll look at the charts in a moment we talked about Amazon last week and died to look at that in Google too Tesla's still a drag really on the group so we've got... they've moved over so it isn't that it's just NVIDIA and Meta that are right of 100 on the JDK or RSV and everything else is left they've improved a lot the whole group has improved a lot and so it's not so concentrated on the two but it is still concentrated on those two particular tech stock here's NVIDIA breaking the high here at 345 powering through it shooting through it there a little bit of a pullback in the last couple of weeks in it but it's remarkable that it's held up so well the trend is undoubtedly strong and the MACD gap widening here it's continuing to strengthen there's a rocket that's on stage 2 I would say here's Amazon that we highlighted had deep break that high and powered ahead and it's clear now good to support in here MACD you can see gap is widening here getting more energy firing ahead here and looking forward to getting to the next resistance point which is right up here at 145 so we like this one because it had a bit of a clear run and finally we're done Google it broke the resistance level went to the next resistance which we noted was very close the series of lows in here around 125-126 tried to break through pullback this would be a natural place for it to stop if it's going to stop the previous resistance level now becomes a support level so look at the action here on this act, this current level the Bungerband's MACD is painting a very bullish picture and the RSI has come up strongly hooked down with the price action here but will it be hooked down like that one and lift up again so watch closely the action here if it holds here then I think it will go on up and possibly take out this high and then move on into this consolidation area here but of the two, Amazon is a more attractive looking chart because you've got a nice gap not a literal gap but not much trading between now and the next level of resistance which is much higher up whereas the next level of resistance here is quite close by moving to the foreign exchange market I want to draw your attention because we've been having a strong dollar for several weeks now we've seen for example the heavyweight euro here suffering from that but it may be coming to an end this dominance of the dollar and it may be turning and I want to look at where might be best to participate in this and take advantage of it if this turn is occurring so here is the euro the euro falling, US dollar rising back towards you might say a support level either from this consolidation from March or from this uptrend line here but more importantly on the daily chart the MACD has been extremely good in the euro and in the dollar itself so we had this crossover here which was a sell here then we had the cross here the MACD crosses signal line right in here at the low and then crossing here and here at the high it's a kind of slow lagging the direction indicators are really good for trading because it's got built-in lag it's made of moving averages but that is a high degree of accuracy now what we have got here is we've had the move down which was from mid-April till now and it's close to crossing in here and we've lost momentum on the downside and it's starting to look like the euro's bottoming out or if you like the US dollar is bottoming out it's high we can see here that we've got a strong up-moving it's not actually a bullish divergence but it's a strong up-moving going on in here after having been pressured since the middle of April so let's now look at the big picture of this and look at the major currencies versus the US dollar using RG now this is a rented rotation graph with a weekly sample so each dot here is a week so we're showing one, two three, four weeks, five weeks of activity there's something quite stark here there's only one currency versus the dollar which is at the crosshair which is moving in a northeasterly direction everything else generally is heading in a south-westerly direction westerly means weakening versus the dollar and sub-ally means without positive momentum there's one, just one, the Canadian dollar and here it's moved across in the recent weeks from the improving quadrant into the leading quadrant and it's pointing northeasterly so easterly strengthening on a relative basis to the US dollar here and northerly with positive momentum so it's moving in a lovely direction here this is on the weekly sampling let's move to the daily and here you can see that everything is on the daily chart is weaker than the US dollar which is here except for the Canadian dollar here we've got some bounce so that's that little as we saw in the euro the little curving of the euro this is the curving going on but the leader is the Canadian dollar so let's have a look at the Canadian dollar chart here is the Canadian dollar so it's expressed of course US dollar, Canadian dollar so decline here is decline in the US dollar rise in the Canadian dollar so bearing in mind charts we've just been looking at and the position of the Canadian dollar in the RRG chart and the position of the US dollar itself this sort of turning point potentially and now here's something where the dollar is already weak in relative terms so imagine that it goes weaker so in other words this goes further down now we're at a pretty crucial point here I hope we got 133 point here that if that were to give way we could easily drop a lot further down look here so we got some resistance from this high from July 2022 132 that high that low that breakout point there that's quite a significant level but potentially this is quite vulnerable to a US dollar fall and this one in particular if you go if you agree with this idea that we're in the just at the cusp of a change in direction in the in the dollar sorry excuse me and the dollar the euro is turning up the dollar is turning down having the dollar having dominated then the euro yes there's room for that to go up but really the one which has got you will be pushing into resistance here but the one that really has got a clear shot of moving substantially is the Canadian dollar so my view is that if you go along with this then watch the Canadian dollar look for the big break on the Canadian dollar potentially and for that to leave the way as indicated by the ROG weekly and daily graphs I'll leave it there this week thank you very much for watching I hope you benefit from that look at the stock indices and its potential changes that are going on there we've had some persistence in that area for a while and that may be changing and then also a potential change in the dollar and how best to participate in that so thank you very much for watching we'll be back again next week we'll be Julius next week so from Julius and I at ROG Research we wish you the best and may the trend be with you