 Don't think you're smarter than the market. Okay, I don't care how many years you're trading, just don't, okay, you'll get humbled faster than you can blink. You're more important than you are. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of theaxesatrader.com, nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a good day of trading. Just like always, guys, just a quick reminder, we really, really do appreciate all the love and support. If you haven't done so already, subscribe, get notified when we are uploaded and like the videos to help support the channel. So let's talk about the tape, right? This is where, again, we continue to talk about the greatest reality show that's not on television, right? Look, I'm doing this for a long time. I've been in a lot of bull markets, I've been in a lot of, I guess a lot, a good handful of bull markets and a good handful of bear markets. And the one thing that is certain, okay, and I say this all the time and repeat this with me. If you have somebody hold their hands on both sides, right, turn around and say, we don't know shit, right? We don't know shit. So anybody who's trying to forecast the market, who's trying to guess where things are going to be three weeks from now, three months from now, three years from now, can we at least get it right tomorrow, right? That's the whole point. Is it so much to ask for that we can get it right tomorrow? And that's kind of the name of the game. I've always said this, we're not getting ready for what's gonna happen for next week, we're getting ready for tomorrow, right? We're getting ready for the data we collected on the close. That's kind of going through charts in our research for the day. And let's talk about the last three days, right? So you had the Powell, right? The power of the Powell, okay? Powell, big, big move. They talked about the 50 basis points kind of curbing down, maybe holding down a little bit of the inflationary narrative and the market went absolutely nuts, right? You saw the Q's go up 4.4% in about two hours. The next day, right? The next day, and again, by the way, it engulfed two weeks worth of selling, right? Bullish, right? Reclaimed everything. The next day, even though it was an inside day, okay? We reclaimed the previous day's channel and progressed on price action, right? That's deemed bullish. Friday, right? Friday, Friday came along, you had a strong jobs number, right? And unlike the last two strong jobs numbers that crushed the market, the market, again, if you watch the weekend video, the market did great, right? They made back 85% of the pre-market losses and it looked super-duper, really good going into this week, right? We held the five-day moving average and we reclaimed back to 150 that it kind of lost the day before an inside day. So everything looked good, right? Everything looked promising. But remember, just because something looks good doesn't mean it is good, right? From afar, right? From afar, really, really far. My mother-in-law resembles a human being, right? Same flesh, same blood that we all drip in. We get closer, you realize it's Lucifer spawn, right? The woman of Satan. So not everything looks good from afar and looks good from a near. Before stocks need to go higher, go lower, they need to confirm, right? Everything that we have on the table for going into the next day is based on data, right? It's literally based on data. So last night, I had a pretty good watch list. I had some really good levels that I was watching for today. And you woke up this morning, you saw the Nasdaq futures down, 20, 30 handles, nothing, right? Not a big deal. And then slowly but surely, you're starting seeing a little bit of nuggets kind of drop, right? Little headlines here, little headlines there, but nothing really crazy. Remember, again, super bullish that the bulls defended the jobs number on Friday and continued to build potentially going into this week. And then the morning, you started seeing a little bit of headlines. There was chatter that Tesla was going to cut 20, cut some production from China and this, that, and the third and blah, blah, blah. They took Tesla down and then moments later, they came out and said, I don't know if this is even real news. The stock started moving up and then slowly but surely we realized, oh, wait a minute, the stock just moved up basically into supply into Friday's breakdown. So we'll get to Tesla in a second, right? So the most important part, and again, I say this in the nicest way possible, right? Stop being that trader who thinks they know it all. You don't know anything, right? I don't know anything. You don't know anything. We do our best, right? We do our damnness to research the night before to get ready for the next day, right? Not the day after the day after that, the day after that, right? Not Arbor Day or Flag Day or Groundhog Beaver Day, whatever the hell it's called, right? It's all about tomorrow and two things are either gonna happen. Our research is going to confirm and usually good things are going to happen or it's not and we're gonna have to pivot no pun intended to the other side of the market and that's exactly what we did here. And what I didn't like, right? What I didn't like what I saw today was the idea that we gave back half the bar, right? Gave back the half the Powell bar for absolutely no reason. Now again, you can make an argument, well, maybe this was, you know, maybe this was a delayed reaction from the jobs number. How much more of a delayed reaction you had? It gets six and a half hours on Friday to figure it out, right? So I don't know if that was that but if you look at the final tallies, you know, they're going to show you for it. Number one, we lost half the bar on the queues and that's not a good thing. S&P today was down a little bit less than 2% but again that's something to think about it because if you look at the S&P, right? If you look at the S&P, this is now three days in a row of lower highs and S&P led us up. The problem with the S&P leading us up, think about what's in the S&P, a lot of financials, right? If you look at a lot of financial stocks tonight, you're gonna see why the market kind of had that, right? Look at Goldman Sachs, look at Bank of America, right? Look at JP Morgan, right? Not a good thing. The banks definitely led the market lower today. You had Apple that showed a lot of strength this morning and really, really reversed about face, holding on to dear life now back at the 50-day moving average. Again, that's not a good thing. You had Tesla, remember we've been talking about Tesla now off and on for a couple of weeks and hey, it just hasn't rallied, hasn't rallied, hasn't rallied. We'll get to pivot in a second but now we're getting close to the bottom of the rain shell. Hell, if it loses the bottom of the rain shell, you could start seeing these 160. So there's a lot of moving parts going around, right? There's a lot of things that are facing us on a day-to-day basis but the only thing that we have control of, again, is our research, right? And our ability to not to guess, right? Don't guess. It's our ability to kind of stay solvent until our research gets confirmed. Again, if I'm looking at my research tomorrow, again, I don't know what you wanna buy, right? I don't know exactly what you wanna buy. Is it possible we turn around and go higher tomorrow? Of course, but that's the whole point, right? We have notes, we have our research, we have our data and let's see if it confirms some more. If not, again, we'll pivot, right? We'll pivot and we'll see exactly what's going on the upside but again, just from the surface, again, I don't know how you could turn around and say I'm super duper bullish for tomorrow. Again, anything could happen but we don't know how we make that statement. So again, here's the numbers, right? Here's the numbers that we have to pay attention to. So the QQQs, in the last couple of days, reclaimed the 510 and the last three days lost the 510 and 150. We're kind of the middle of the range here. I don't wanna sound the alarm yet on the Qs until we lose the bottom channel here. You see this whole rising 20-day support? If we start losing 283 on the close, then we have a whole different conversation, right? That's why at least every single night when I record these videos, I talk about have a contingency plan, right? Have a bias in that one direction but always have a backup plan, right? Just in case the market turns and our research doesn't get confirmed, then we're not sitting there unprepared. We have something, that's why we're always, we're always trying to make sure that we are prepared on both sides of the market and I'll show you exactly we talked about today on the individual pivots. So until there is a close below 283, I don't think it's horrendous yet, right? But again, yet. So we wanna make sure this whole bar doesn't get filled. When you look at the spies, did lose the five and the 10-day moving average but again, it's holding this line here. I don't sound the alarm yet on a broken narrative until the spies lose 396 on the close. Below 396 on the close, you have to start getting a little bit more, a little bit more aware of potential macro breakdown that'll be below this 90 level. Again, we're not there yet. We're just kind of brainstorming, tossing out these numbers so you are prepared. If you set alerts and those areas get hit, you are going to be, you're going to be prepared for what's happening next. Another group that keeps on getting absolutely massacre are these cloud names, right? Look at snow, look at snow today. Snow got beat down, right? They got beat down. CRM, we had a really, really strong pivot in the room. We'll get to that in a second. CRM broke down. Crowd that was down like 20 bucks, whatever it was, 20% on earnings, it's starting to roll over. It's maybe one more day, maybe one or two days away from maybe testing lows. So there's a lot of names that, despite the strength of the market the last two, three days, again, we're starting to get into uneasy territory. Again, we'll obviously take a day-by-day trade-by-trade, but the most important thing, guys, don't think you're smart in the market. Okay, I don't care how many years you're trading, just don't, okay? You'll get humbled faster, you can blink, and more important is you'll lose your solvency status, and that's not a good thing if you wanna continue pressing buttons. But again, look at the final tallies for the day. You got the Dow down 500, you got the S&P down 72 points, and you got the Nasdaq down 2%, down 220 points on the day. Again, we'll see. Again, I have a ton of shorts lined up for tomorrow, but again, we'll see exactly what happened, but again, pre-prepared on both sides. So let's talk about the day, right? So this was our watch list going into the day, right? And we started looking at individual pivots to the outside, right? You can see here, there was literally one short, right? I was prepared back to the upside and one short. I don't believe anything triggered to the upside as you could possibly imagine. Excuse me, and pH went up like a dollar in change and it came back down, right? Nothing else happened. That's my point, right? You have a bias. You have your research telling you what should happen, what potentially could happen, but if it doesn't happen, you have to switch gears and that's how we switch gears. CRM 142, remember those earnings lows plays? We told that like LITE was the recent one last week. It went from like 44 to 42 a couple of days, right? CRM, those earnings lows plays. Once they confirm, those are really, really good potential. So CRM 142 earnings low, if it builds below can flush. CRM got absolutely massacre today, right? So it took down this whole 142 channel. I think we even talked about this on the weekend update. Took down macro support at 136. This went all the way down to 132. If this thing confirms today's channel, this thing has room to 26, 23, if there is more let down in the market. Disney never got into this 100 area. ENPH, again, went up like a dollar in change, went to like the 340, not a big move. It's so thin, not a big move there at all. A&F obviously never got up there either. Peloton I like never got there. Zillow I like never got there. Netflix 323 never got there. You see the message, right? Meta went up like 60, 70 cents, again before a big reversal. AMC actually looked good for like 13 seconds. Okay, I'll stop talking about it. TTD never got up to 55 level. And this is where definitely the trade of the day, at least for I, and I think could have more legs ahead of us. Again, remember, it did not rally, okay? It did not rally with the rest of the market from the majority of time. 187.50, 187.50, builds below can flush for experienced traders. Because again, at the end of the day, we were looking for an upside buy. So when that didn't happen, Tesla was definitely one of the ones who stood out and led. So it took out the 77 level and traded all the way down to 80 and a half, right? Really, really nice move. Here's where things could get potentially ignorant as the kids would say, right? You see this whole channel here, right? You see this whole channel going all the way back to, I can't say all the way back to, but like in November of the 29th, right? We got to watch this channel for tomorrow, okay? If this channel loses, right? If this whole channel loses tomorrow on Tesla, and they were coming for the 180s, 175, 170 puts, right, weekly puts. If this thing starts losing the channel here, and again, you believe in the whole theory, stocks rate, which is plight of supply and demand to the man. Well, the next demand is 170, little under 170, 169, 60s, right? They were betting. They were coming with some pretty decent size for the 175 and 170s. So Tesla definitely have to watch it for tomorrow, right? Again, I don't know if this news was right, wrong today about chatter, cutting production in China, blah, blah, blah. You know, first it acted negatively, then it rallied, and then once they cleaned up the buyer, it really, really acted negatively. So this is the one I'm definitely watching tomorrow. I would love to see this break below this end of November channel, because there's a lot of potential. Obviously, I will be watching more continuation from CRM. Look at Amazon, right? Look at Amazon. Amazon is, you know, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10. You got two weeks worth of distribution. Amazon starts losing the bottom channel, and we have more selling. This thing looks really, really primed for a move down. And let me give you guys one more that I am watching. Yeah, look at Target, right? Look at Target. Target lost the 50-day moving average. Remember, they blew up on earnings. First close today below the 50-day moving average. Target confirms there's another four or five points to the earnings low, and if it closes below earnings low, there's a lot of room down to begin. So that's it, guys, right? So that's it. Remember, if you're in this business, and I said this all the time, if you're in this business for likes and shares and who gives a F, right, you're doing it wrong. Guys, it's all about value. You don't need to trade every day, but if you do, make sure your plan, your research gets confirmed, and never anticipate. All right, guys, have a great night, everybody. God bless, and I will see you all tomorrow. Take care.