 All right, thank you, Chair, and good morning, everyone. I guess this is quite a new topic. We presented an earlier version of this paper last month in Paris to a Gia Pisa Automotive Network, which brings together a sort of conference every year. It's been running for 20 years on the auto industry. And this was the first time that had a paper on Africa outside of South Africa and North Africa. So there was some bemusement, I think, from delegates there. But anyway, let's see how it goes down here. So what I'm going to do is, obviously, we know there's been a huge shift in production in the two developing regions, particularly Asia, but also Latin America. But of course, not to Africa. So there's been this big production shift which has completely bypassed Africa. We also know that Africa is one of the world's fastest growing regions now. And if you look at the demand for motor vehicles, it's very income elastic. So as the middle class grows, demand for vehicles will grow even more rapidly. I was in China last week and sitting in those massive traffic jams, it's quite clear. So vehicle imports into Africa, that's used and new vehicles. And used vehicles, a very important factor here, have been growing by about 19% per year since 2000. That's excluding into South Africa. So from a very small base, you're getting a rapid growth in the market. We estimate that the passenger vehicle market could exceed 10 million units by 2030. So the big question that we're asking is how will this demand be met? Will it be met by local production or by imports? Currently, it's being met by imports. Now, at the conference I mentioned in Paris, the research R&D director of Valeo, which is one of the world's largest component-producing multinationals, presented, he gave a presentation mainly on technology, but he gave this series of slides, which I'd like you to look at carefully as I go through them. This is vehicle production in 2000, with world map collapsed according to scale, or expanded. Oh, great, thank you. OK, so you've got China quite small over here, and you've got Africa, which is mainly South Africa down here. So I want you to watch India in particular, China, and Africa. So that's 2000. 2012, we see this massive expansion in China. Africa's small, and India's also expanded rapidly. You're seeing a small relative decline in some of the traditional producing regions, like Japan, United States, and so on. Then we move to 2017, and this is the forecast from this major component supplier, where China again starts to balloon out, and by this stage, Asia is producing 79 million vehicles. Africa and Middle East, only 3 million, again. So very little expansion in Africa. And then for 2030, China is this sort of really gigantic. We've got India also huge, but again, African Middle East, only 4 million vehicles. So about 3% of the African Asian Middle East production would be in Africa according to this presentation. So I think we need to hope that they are incorrect. And then just on the extent of the opportunity, and I really haven't got time to go through this in too much detail, but we compare India with sub-Saharan Africa. And if you look at total GDP, per capita income, and also population size, they're roughly in the same ballpark. But then look at this bottom row. This shows you the automotive trade balance for India, which obviously has a single unified market with a common external tariff, which is quite high. And sub-Saharan Africa, which import has a trade deficit of $11 billion in the automotive sector. So obviously, the problem is that Africa is not integrated. It's divided into a few dozen small, basically small markets, because the total market, again, is of a similar order of magnitude. But production in India is much higher, and India is a net exporter. OK, so I'm going to hand over to Tom, who will talk about some of the data complications. So the first thing when trying to look at what's going to happen in the automotive market in Africa is we need to know how many cars are there in Africa, in sub-Saharan Africa. And unfortunately, we can't answer that very easily. The data just isn't there. The sort of government censuses on how many registered vehicles there are in the country are completely unreliable. You have situations where there are completely different reporting standards across the board in different countries as to what means a new registration, what's a reregistration, as to what the customs is it. Do you charge customs duty before or after freight? There's massive absent trade data where you just won't get data or nonsensical data where, for example, according to UN Comtrade, Nigeria supposedly imports 100 million cars in 2001, which is probably unlikely and probably an error. Then you also have issues of smuggling and corruption, which drift both from massive-scale smuggling in West Africa, specifically from Benin and Togo into Nigeria, and invoice manipulation at the borders and places like Mozambique and in other areas of Africa. So you have those issues. More than that, you have the no unified market. You also have very little protection. When the sort of protectionist policies were rolled back, auto manufacturing definitely felt a lot of that. So you have no real production outside of South Africa. You've got very low tariffs. You've got lots of used cars coming in. The used cars come in major authority from the EU, going hugely to West Africa, from the Middle East and Japan going to East Africa, and from Japan coming to Southern Africa, going through Durban usually in Southern Africa. So those are the trade flows. So then how then do we try and get an idea of how many cars there are? We can't look at stocks of vehicles in the nations because we just don't know historically how many there are. So we have to look at the flows going into those nations. We use there, we look at the mirror trade data, because in a lot of these countries, the exports are very well accounted for because they know there are issues of smuggling. It's specifically in places like the EU, which are trying to increase their environmental legislation and people are trying to dodge it by exporting those cars instead of having them recycled. They're very strict on trying to control their exports. And then you're also looking at the number of vehicles, not the values, because then values become nonsensical with border manipulation of those invoices because you have different duties for different values of vehicles. So you have to look at numbers, flows, and use mirror data. Specifically the US, Japan, and EU all now report since 2003 quite accurately, the new and used car imports. So you're able to get an idea of the scale of the two. What is Africa consuming? How big is this used car market? Which we want to maybe turn into new cars if we want to have an industry in Sub-Saharan Africa. UN com trade then supplies the rest. So what are the basic numbers looking like? If you look at the whole of Africa, this is the very rapid growth that you can see. And by 2013, 1.8 million vehicles. By comparison, we're looking at 23 million vehicles in China alone at the same time, but it's the growth from a small base that is very impressive. And without South Africa, the growth is quite fast as well. The top 10 importers are South Africa, Nigeria, and then you immediately see an anomaly, Benin, and that is the huge amount of smuggling that goes on. The estimates that some say in the region of 95% of the cars imported into Benin are smuggled out of Benin through into Nigeria and Niger. There are reports of whole workshops producing fake number plates on the border between Benin and Nigeria. Everything is forged and you can move it beyond. Togo as well is an exceptionally high number. The exporters mostly comes down to these major 10. If you add on the remaining two others who are Turkey, three others, sorry, Turkey, China, and Indonesia, that accounts for 99% of all imports into Africa. Okay, what we can then try and do is look at the new vehicles alone. Try to say how much of that is used vehicles and how much of that is new vehicles. So the new vehicles from Japan, the EU, and the US, you can find quite easily through their trade data. But then if you look at countries like Thailand, India, China, Turkey, they all have very controlled used car markets, all major producers, and it's highly unlikely that the exports that they are sending into Africa are actually used vehicles because their own markets, they have over 100% tariffs on used vehicles or used vehicles are banned. So they don't have a surplus used market. The exception to this is Korea, where they are beginning to have a surplus of used vehicles, which they are beginning to export to Africa, so it's not certain whether or not those are new or used. If you look at the numbers, and I'll show you the next slide, which is what the industry suggests are the numbers of new passenger cars in South Saharan Africa, there's a massive difference, specifically in the nation like Nigeria, where supposedly almost 100,000 more new cars have been imported than is suggested by some industry figures. The fact is that most of this is accounted for under 1,000 CC imports from India, which accounts for 90,000 vehicles going into Nigeria yet. Whether that's because companies like Hyundai and Tata and all of them are very good, they sort of dominate the under 1,000 CC market and you can't always, that's because it's motor rituals is not clear, but I suspect it's motor rituals, which means we actually have a very, very small market for new cars. If you're looking at sort of 36,000 cars in the second largest market in Africa, which then leads us on. If we have consumer spending continuing to grow as it has been, we could be looking at a situation where we have over 10 million units being sold a year. The fact is that at the current growth, that's almost all used cars as it stands currently, that will almost all be used cars. A slightly different scenario is the motorcycle market in Africa, just to look at it as a contrast, where we have almost three or four million new motorcycles being imported into Africa, almost entirely from India and China. And again, if you look at the amounts being smuggled into Nigeria, you have approximately 1.7 million motorcycles, new motorcycles being bought in Nigeria alone. So again, food for thought, possibly at a different avenue, and Anthony will now extrapolate on the possibilities. Right, so what are the prospects? Well, we all know that the level of industrialization in Africa is very low, and especially when it comes to vehicle production, you've got obviously South Africa, which is a pretty small scale producer in global terms, and then you've got some production in North Africa. Most notably, the biggest plant in Africa is a new Renault plant in Morocco, which has a capacity of 400,000 vehicles a year and exports into the EU. So you've also had a history of small scale assembly in other countries, which was mostly swept away by structure adjustment policies and economic decline. Now the three major conditions that you need for automotive growth are firstly a viable automotive space. This is a scale intensive industry, so you've got to have a kind of market in the region or in the country, which is sufficient to produce and attract large scale investment. Regional integration is obviously critical. You need to have improving manufacturing capabilities, which are becoming competitive over time, or these becoming reasonably competitive, and you obviously got to have appropriate policy frameworks. So if we look at a viable automotive space, well as the minister pointed out, I mean regional value chains do not exist to any large extent. The only significant automotive trade within Africa, I'm not talking about the outside, but within Africa is from South Africa exporting to the rest of the continent and it does that on quite a large scale. In fact, the rest of the continent is now about coming out as second largest market after the EU. We know that regional integration is making slow, but perhaps steady progress. You've got the trade diversion problem. Why would consumers in Uganda say want to buy perhaps quite expensive cars produced in Kenya when they can import very cheap used cars from Japan? And then there's the question of whether the automotive sector could help drive regional integration in other regions that's done that. And Mercasur in ASEAN, for example, it has created political momentum towards regional integration. It can also act as a barrier because every country wants to have their own automotive industry. Competitive capabilities, I won't go into this in any depth. I mean, I think we know the limitations in many African countries and also in South Africa in terms of what we lack in terms of competitive capabilities. For example, direct costs, costs of capital. If you look at wage rates in other African countries compared to Asian countries of similar per capita incomes, you'll see that for the most part, wages in Africa are much higher than compared to countries in Asia. The indirect costs as well, regulatory environment, infrastructure constraints, we know about electricity artiches. So there are a whole range of obstacles there. Now, what about policy? And I want to focus a little bit more on this. No, there's been no successful development of any industry that I know of, any automotive industry without protection. So you do need protection and you simply cannot compete against used car imports. Used car imports come from Japan. Japan has this policy which makes it very difficult after you had a car for three years, the extensive sort of roadworthy requirements and a lot of these cars get exported at very low prices. But protection does need to be moderate and it's got to be balanced between protection for the components sector and for the assembly sector. And scale, this is really something that I've sort of looked at very closely in the South African situation was key to the whole rationale for the MIDP. Very high effective rates of protection on assembly will lead to proliferation of minor assembly and many, many different models, different makes being produced in small scale plants. That is really not the way to go. And you are seeing that in a number of African countries including Nigeria, Kenya and Ethiopia where small scale investments are being attracted. There may be a rationale in the early stage but I think one's got to be sure that you move very rapidly up to attracting larger scale investments. And I think the problem in Nigeria and in some of these other countries is that these small investments will require certain political weights behind them and then it's going to prove very, very difficult to rationalize the industry later on and to provide for a policy framework which then actually requires firms to make proper investments instead of screwdriver types of investments which are being made currently. Tom mentioned the motorcycle production and I think that is a sector, especially in West Africa where you have got sufficient scale in the market to actually justify fairly large scale domestic production and proper manufacturing of motorcycles. That might be an easier entrance point as it was in Asia into the automotive industry. This just shows you in a sense what we want to avoid. It shows you the position in the mid 1990s of a whole range of developing countries nearly all of which are now large scale automotive producers. But at that point they were producing a whole range of large numbers of small low volume models and a proliferation of plants and small scale production. Okay, so then to just conclude well we estimate that the market could exceed 10 million vehicles by 2030 that's bigger than South America but the problem is as we've emphasized it's divided among nearly 40 countries. So regional integration becomes essential. It's really not an option and obviously manufacturing capabilities and infrastructure have to be upgraded. And then finally the policy does need to avoid the dead end of attracting and encouraging very small scale investments. Thanks. Thank you.