 Hi, my name's Leon Roe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 comm and welcome to this week's supply and demand for its Technical analysis if you're new welcome, and if you're returning welcome back And if you find the analysis I do every week on the fundamentals and Technical analysis regarding supply and demand, please like subscribe and share and just a quick reminder for those trading 180 members Whether your option a or option B? if you go down to the Main page and go to number 11 click on that take you to the weekly analysis where you get analysis on over 25 currency pairs, I think it's maybe about 28 29 pairs on the weekly analysis and this is where I go through the full Strategy every week for you guys including daily and weekly supply zones all of the odds enhancers Included as well. So I help you along not only with learning the strategy, but applying it every week and break it down for you guys So let's get back to the fundamentals before I get into the technicals and Looking at the week ahead Central banks in the US UK in Japan and China will provide an update on monetary policy next week with markets anticipating a 25% rate cut from the Fed. So if we go to the Fed watch CME market watch tool and This is pretty much the probability of a rate cut as indicated by the large financial institutions and speculators and they Pretty much predict a 80% cut Or an ease of 0.25% and 20% think that it's going to be no change so You know, usually a rate cut should indicate a weaker dollar, but with all central banks looking to ease as well the European Central Bank this week Say this week, but last week announced a fresh round of stimulus Which in in in monetary policy terms is is way worse than a you know, a simple 0.25 rate cut They haven't got any bullets really in the chamber. So The European Central Bank and European economy is in a much worse situation than you know, the US for God's or what you think of Donald Trump, so The European Central Bank has, you know announced that they're trying to weaken their currency to achieve their 2% inflation target as well as support the economy and also as well This week the Bank of Japan, you know, it says may hold fire. This is a Reuters article may hold fire despite ECB's loosening so again, they are talking about easing and Depend what depending on what happens it says stable markets and resilient domestic demand could help the Bank of Japan We stand pressure to expand an already massive stimulus program when policy Makers meet next week in the wake of the European Central Bank's policy They all want a cheap currency regardless of what you know is the narrative is out there They want to achieve their Their targets and support the economy and by doing that they have to have a week weaker currency which boosts exports so in GDP so You know weak currency is favorable to central banks and as traders we just take advantage of that or try to take advantage of that so With the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan All weakening there trying to weaken their currencies The Fed is just basically You know joining in with the party whether it will have a major effect or not is To be you know looked at on the chart. I don't think it will may be short term Why is there may be obviously some short term weakness, but I think that the pound say the pound the dollar is the the overall the strongest Currency of them all so far and we also have just quickly the UK and the pound and the pound is really being driven by No deal Brexit sentiment if you know, I mean so the fact that if there is a no deal Brexit sentiment No deal no no deal was taken off the table Then the pound potentially may rally and that's what's been happening this week that the the chances of a no deal Brexit being taken off the table is has increased so you're seeing the pound You know increase in value so Let's get into the the charts this week and What we have I'm going to start off on the US dollar index and the US dollar index is just a measure of The dollar strength against the major currencies like the euro the yen and the pound as well as the Australian dollar and Last week pretty much we came back down into this demand zone rallyed a little bit, but then Even though there's been some decent news for the for the dollar the dollar index dollar overall I think is anticipating obviously a rate cut which could see some short term You know negative sentiment affects the dollar Well, that doesn't really matter if you're looking to buy the dollar because it just gives you an opportunity to buy at a cheaper price, right? You know, so if you are looking to buy the dollar even now or if you're looking at You know prices kind of falling away down here into this fresher area of Demand as this level has been touched several times So I don't really expect this to hold if you know prices weaken into the Fed announcement Then you know All we do is look forward to the US dollar index as some confirmation that there is buying across Board when it comes to the dollar Now moving on to the dollar yen and the dollar yen last week we had basically this little pin bar doji candle and I was saying last week that there is risk on coming into the market Donald Trump and China had pretty much agreed to kind of extend tariffs The impose him imposing tariffs on each other basically and there was a lot of risk on Sentiment coming into market and the Japanese yen doesn't really do well in a risk on environment as investors will look to Make more of a return on their money So the Japanese yen at the moment is in negative interest rates Meaning that it's gonna cost you to put money in the bank They want you to not keep their money in the bank. They want the the the currency out there Whereas even though the US dollar are Cutting rates you're still getting two point two five percent return at the moment Before they you know potentially cut rates Which is better than negative interest rates so in a risk on environment the dollar really is the The currency to buying you're seeing that you know this week and especially with They're being less risk off and more risk on in the market, which means now that that supply zone has gone You've got nice demand zone right there. So one of two ways you can play this If you are looking at getting Long on the dollar, you'd have to really kind of wait for a pullback and then a move Up From here so some bullish price action on the daily or a lower time frame if you're looking to buy the Japanese yen and you think the Japanese yen is an absolute bargain at these prices Then you're looking at daily demand zone right here And then you're looking at getting short because and obviously how supply and demand works is we look for past supply This is an indication that the Japanese yen was an absolute bargain at this price prices fell away Yeah, so by so basically buyers at this point in time. We're looking at buying the dollar. Sorry the Japanese yen in absolute mass selling the US dollar and so the same thing may occur around here, but it depends on fundamentals and sentiment as those are really the drivers of price What the main drivers of price as well as you know liquidity and stop hunting, which is something I don't get into in These videos, but let's move on to the dollar yen, sorry dollar Swiss and the dollar Swiss Last week came up into this supply zone here Again sold off a little bit sold off a little bit But to me, I think the Swiss Frank is probably the weaker batter to again It does well in a risk of the environment, but in a risk on the environment Not so much. We do have a new demand zone right here and What I would probably do is look for prices to kind of come down to this area here this 98 Two level to 98 the brown number as we have not only Demand there's lots of demand in this area. You have, you know resistance support Support, you know bit of support in here as well So I think if prices can come down here that'd be a decent buy for looking to buy the US dollar if you're looking to short the dollar and buy the Swiss Frank then I would probably wait for price to maybe You know come up to this area Right here if you're trying to get into a new trade a fresher area of supply If you did get short in these areas here and here on the lower time frames Maybe made a little bit of profit on that you know decent and What I would say is if again There is risk off comes into the market then Swiss Frank will probably end up, you know strengthening if this, you know risk on continues I think over a dollar should want to You know, you know get a bit stronger even in the face of you know rate cuts dollar CAD and the dollar CAD At the moment last week with DC prices come down into this demand zone a nice demand zone with the confidence of some support resistance support as marked out last week So some of you may have got involved in that if you did well done to you guys So where at now is there was really no no supply here for the Dollar CAD prices literally just went straight through that So now all we're looking at is either a pullback into This area here before looking at getting long and what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna extend this up to that area the 1.3 1.6 Level you want to be a buyer of the dollar if you're looking to be a buyer of the Canadian dollar Then you're looking for prices to really kind of come up into I would say anywhere around this higher zone around this 1.136 in the fresher area the 1.3 1.3 4 round number is probably the better area to look for some short trades New Zealand New Zealand US dollar So we did come up into a level of supply here There was a few supply zones around this area here and here So there was supply here, but then when prices started to trail off We'll be looking at getting short in here there was a nice Stop hunt set up around here, which I posted in the telegram group, which I think some of you may have taken advantage of and Took it for a nice two-to-one type trade some of you may still be in this but This was a nice cell trade right here I don't expect really prices to go further down. They could do they could not we have no idea But with the Fed potentially You know cutting rates we could see basically a move up into this higher zone It's maybe 65 round number before looking at some more cell trades as I will be looking to potentially short the the New Zealand dollar New Zealand dollar actually is doing quite well It's not necessarily the best trade or the best pair to look for shorts against the dollar, but If the setup presents itself, we just manage our risk and Potentially take the trade the New Zealand dollar are also looking to cut rates as well They cut rates more than expected last time around but we could see a bit of a rally as well Obviously into next week if you do want to be a buyer of this currency pair You're looking at basically pull back into this demand zone here before looking at a Long trade there for the New Zealand dollar and that from a technical perspective. I do like this this area But from a fundamental perspective I'm more inclined to buy the US dollar out opportunities Looking at the British pound US dollar So last week There wasn't really any kind of supply zone around here to try and look for shorten opportunities There was a bit of a stop-hand opportunity here But pretty much depending on your entry and exit you may have got a decent amount of pips on the intraday But overall from a daily perspective what you've got is the pound really just rallying on No deal Brexit sentiment so that's created higher highs higher lows and We know that higher highs and higher lows are reasons for you know Demand obviously there was a lot more demand at this price for the pound than there was you know this exchange rate So this creates obviously strong demand So if we do want to be a buyer of the pound to take advantage of potential pound sentiment What you're looking for is a pullback into this area right here Do you have a bit of confluence with? Yeah, a little bit of confluence With regards to some support and resistance in that zone where you've got A bit of support there bit of resistance of truck if prices come down into this area You've got support and resistance traders looking at that area as well as supplying demand traders looking to get You know long in that area Again depending on whether it's a bargain And if you're looking to get short the moment pretty much anywhere now you've got the 125 round number round numbers always Decent for to look for some sort of reversal not to say that they will happen but again with the dollar sentiment potentially in the Fed cutting rates you You may see prices start to drift higher before they start to maybe turn around at one of these These points around here Euro dollar euro dollar. So what's happened is I'll go to a little bit of depth in in this as well Is and I was saying this to the the private members a group the telegram group coaching group was And I ended up getting shorter here last week and taking profit pretty much down here So, you know to get into it was everyone was pretty much expecting Obviously the ECB to cut rates. It wasn't I mean and introduce stimulus They are not only did they go into negative interest rates. They they Introduced QE. So That was to be pretty much expected Now if everyone wants to get short, right? What has to happen is you need enough of liquid the market needs love enough liquidity to get short Everybody can't get short. Everyone can't press tell it needs to be enough by orders In order to for everyone to you know to to get short and if they're not enough by orders, right around this area Then what do you think is going to happen? They the market has to look for the liquidity and this goes into, you know I spoke orders and stop hunting and things like that and the way that banks trade so I Was saying that you know if the market starts to come up, right? It's really and just my opinion is that there were a lot of you know financial institutions that are Are short in this market, but they can't get short because everyone else is short So there's not enough liquidity for them to get short is not enough by orders So what happens is is you know market starts to stop hunt take out the You know the other side Zero-sum game and then also it starts to draw in trade as long who want to get long on the euro who follow Price action and if prices, you know this massive, you know nice engulfing candle Prices start to move up. What do you think traders are doing? They're pressing what buy and the financial institutions can actually take the other side of your trade So when you're buying, they're doing what they have to sell in the face of buying, right? so This for me this whole area and the prices, you know continue to go higher It's just for me. It's a it's a case of the financial institutions are you know looking to Sell in the face of buying and then prices should roll over can't really see The euro really strengthening against the dollar at the moment at the moment And of course anything can happen in the markets, you know, it's just a probabilities game Things may change in the you know with the euro and the economy and prices may start to You know go higher and things could get worse for the US dollar, you know So I could be wrong is 50-50 but for now and the way that the economic data is and Monetary policy and they just introduce stimulus I Think any pullbacks into, you know fresher areas of supply a great, you know Buying opportunities for the dollar. I'm not necessarily interested in getting long on the euro If you look at them economically they think about it like this the European central bank Introduced stimulus for a reason and it's not because you know, the economy is doing fantastic. Yeah, so I wouldn't necessarily Me personally wouldn't necessarily be you know interested in buying the euro From a from a supply and demand perspective, but if you are yeah, and there's always Contrarians out there, you know make your money how you make your money, you know It's basically you're looking for basically pullback into and this would be actually this would be a Supply sorry demand zone right here Demand yeah Nice demand zone there. So what you're looking for now is probably some sort of Oh One sec You've got a level here where you've got some support and resistance So you've got support support resistance bit of resistance here So if you are looking to be a buyer Bit of a pullback and then looking for long trade there If not, you're probably looking at bit of a pullback down into the lows right here Yeah, if you're looking to be a buyer of the euro if it the euro is an absolute bargain at these exchange rates then you know Definitely, you know, you can wait for a pullback if you think that the US dollar would be a bargain Then you're looking at probably anything right now or if prices do come up this week Yeah, then you're looking at these areas here for some short trades Moving on to the euro yen and Euro yen Last week, you know did get a bit of a sell-off and again You've got the euro rallying a little bit again. I don't think Not for any kind of you know reason other than probably just some sort of liquidity, but also with the yen the It has been risk on as well So or more or less risk off so the yen doesn't do well in that kind of environment So this is what you know has occurred and we are up into the higher end of this Supply zone so if risk off starts to come into the market then you've got a Japanese yen We'll probably end up strengthening the nest is this is a nice zone. I do like this zone Technically, but just whether you want to buy the Japanese yen also as well They've got their central bank announcement and if they do, you know, add more stimulus Q2 to their monetary policy, then you could see the Japanese yen Actually, you know start to weaken even more because again, that's the central banks intention is for you know Them to weaken the Japanese yen So there is a shorting opportunity this week, but I'm gonna Move this supply zone Probably up to the highs around here just so that I can fit in this demand zone doesn't look too cluttered So bit of supply here You could look for any kind of short trades if in the Japanese yen It's a bargain at this price and if you think the euro is gonna be a bargain You're looking for a pullback into this demand zone before looking at getting long But again, remember that there are some central bank announcements this week Aussie Dollar and the Aussie dollar has rallied Quite a bit Got a bit of demand there So what you're looking at is you're looking to get short I don't know deal with the shorts and buy the US dollar at the moment. We're looking for is it's basically a move down You know move up move down and then a move back up into some sort of supply zone Yeah, and that would be supply before looking at short trades If you are looking at a long trade What you're looking at is you can even wait for a pullback into this area here But just be aware that you are buying a potential highs at the moment You want more of a deeper pullback or if you don't get that then what you're looking for is for price to continue Going higher and then a pullback into that demand zone. Yeah, so that's pretty much your options for the Aussie US dollar and finally the Aussie yen Aussie yen again You've got let's see what we have here. We've got some hidden demand right here Right there And let's see what we've got here. Okay, so yeah What you're looking for is pretty just a pullback into this area here before looking at getting Long if you are looking at getting short you'd look for basically a pullback into this zone And then a move back up into what would be considered supply, you know, right here again Bear in mind that yen strengthens in a risk-off environment and the Australian dollar will strengthen in a risk on environments and yen is off Australian dollar is on And you know as long as there's Investors are looking at making a return meaning that you know that the China trade wars Are you know subsiding then the Australian dollar should do well when this is pretty much what we've seen, you know this week So again, there might be some short opportunities into one of these Also supply zones Again, just depending on whether you want to be buying the Japanese Yen, so that's it for this week I really hope that you all have a great trading week, and I will get back to all of your comments ASAP guys take care and speak to you soon