 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Fantastic sports weekend coming up because on Saturday game one between the Golden Knights and the Panthers and the Stanley Cup finals And on Sunday game two as the heat tried to dig their way out of the hole against the Denver Nuggets We're gonna break down both of those games with Austin Swain for today get his thoughts on last night's game one Preview the Stanley Cup finals and I'll talk some baseball towards the end of the show This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire Join here as mentioned by Austin Swain check him out on Twitter at a swing three check out all of his work over at number fire Common Austin fantastic weekend between the NHL and the NBA. How are you doing today? I'm doing great. This is the nirvana time of year where we get Stanley Cup NBA finals together and then we've got some baseball to kind of snack on in between so it's a nice mix now Do you have any conflict here given you live in Denver, but I believe you're a Miami Heat fan, correct? Yeah, so the heat are definitely my East Coast team. I Clippers what Clippers are your your West team? Yeah, yeah Clippers are absolutely my primarily team And then I you know, I've just had been rooting for the heat since I was a kid I have some family in that type of area. So I really do like the heat I am underneath my breath rooting for the heat here with cautious optimism because I know they're probably outmatched in this series But it's honestly really cool to see my city so excited first time the NBA finals has ever been here You got nuggets merch tents on every corner and it's it's really cool It's it's always cool when you got a championship in your city that you're gunning for so you're saying under your breath Which means you're not parading through the streets with like a Caleb Martin Jersey on no I don't have Caleb Martin Jersey yet after last night's performance I'm not sure I'll be getting one. I Definitely needed Jimmy Butler in my collection. I've got Dwayne Wade. I've got LeBron and I gotta add Jimmy soon No, Chris Bosh Jersey. How could you? I like Stevie. I definitely do. Yeah, the trail there. We're gonna talk about game two We'll talk about that second We'll talk about the NHL first because game one is coming up on Saturday there Then we'll talk some game to get Austin's takeaways from game one for Nugget Seats And then as mentioned I'll talk some baseball later on but first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to Covering the spread wherever you get your podcast these shows also do go up over on the Fandle YouTube page If you want to watch a video version of the show check us out over on the Fandle YouTube page Subscribe there and if you like what you hear leave us a thumbs up on YouTube or a five star rating over on Apple podcast now before we talk about game one for the Golden Knights and the Panthers Austin I do want to talk series prices because we've seen some movement towards the Panthers here They were I believe plus 115 at one point. Yeah, they've now shorted to plus 105 So from a broad series perspective, do you think that movement is justified? Well, I've got money in that direction. So Justified I would probably have some serious soul searching to do and really for me It comes down to you when we really boiled down with the Stanley Cup playoffs become over time It's it comes down to what the hot gold tenders doing the hot goalie Almost always is the one that ends up in this spot from both conferences and this year's playoffs or maybe the most emphatic example in recent memory I don't know if anyone's discussed this on your show earlier this week previewing this But these teams actually haven't between the lines been playing very well Florida third from the bottom Inexpected goal differential for 60 minutes Vegas seventh from the bottom But really they kicked butt to get here both of them did in pretty uncompetitive series And that's because of the gold tending the two guys that lead the playoffs in goal saved above expectation per game by a mile I can't even believe I'm saying this Sergey Babrowski after what was considered a failed contract Givens years ago to come over from Columbus He's best in the playoffs at one point five one and then eight and he'll really the only one in the zip code And he's at point nine one still trailing him So these are the two best gold tenders in the sport the playoffs no surprise that they're here and Sergey Babrowski has been the best I can't believe I'm saying that but that's why I like Florida to win this series Was that the main motivator for you was the gold tending play that pushed you towards the Panthers series ticket for you Yeah, definitely and I I feel like that the scoring has also been more dependable from some of Florida's top line guys They tend to have a better organization on their power play Vegas gets contributions from a lot of spots So it's not quite as consistent with shot volume to protect but Florida's got guys like Matthew Kuchuk Brandon Montour has been killing it for them So I really like the package I get in front of Bob Robsky as well because I know if I'm going over time I've got Kuchuk in key shifts and I can lean on him for a potential goal I believe he closed out Toronto with that final goal as well So I definitely trust the stars and the hot key players on the Panthers more than I do Vegas at this stage And that's why I'm on it. So you took the plus money Yeah, do you believe the Panthers should be favored in this series or was it just a good enough price where you thought it Should have been more even than what it was priced out at the time I mean, I I've got it roughly as a pick So I I think that this price is totally fine If you want to if you want to have the Panthers sitting at plus 105 minus 105 minus 110 Because Vegas right now in terms of like expected shot generation is playing a little bit ahead of the Panthers Florida's playoff run is very interesting. It doesn't make a lot of sense They actually outskated Boston and then have been crushed in the second and third round since so it's a very odd series They did have like a plus four goal differential to get through Carolina in four games So they've just kind of had this habit of squeaking things out But the way the goaltenders are playing is really what would would lean me toward Florida in that pick is because of the Rob ski so you got the Panthers for the series. Let's talk now about game one is specifically this game is in Vegas Which does matter quite a bit The Golden Knights money line is minus 130 the Panthers money line plus one away total for this game is Five and a half with minus 118 on the over minus 105 on the under when you look at game one Specifically Austin anything's in there to use being good value bats at Fandall sportsbook So your opinion of this series whether you agree with me or not That's totally fine if you like Vegas instead But it should reflect your opinion in game one because not only is the obvious math You reduce the number of wins that you would need from four to three by winning game one But specifically in the Stanley Cup finals winner game one sixty three and nineteen when it comes to winning the cup that is a 76.8% clip so data's on your side that if you win game one more overwhelmingly you end up going on to win the Stanley Cup and Obviously Florida they are on road ice So they are probably on the favorable end of that trend of still having a chance that losing tonight wouldn't lose home ice particularly Especially it's up 50% probability that they win. So I Mathematically I would also like the Panthers in this game at plus 108 But it's more of a lean because I think my primary action and it'll be on the under Which was sitting at minus 104 last night. I mentioned that these two had poor expected goal differential data, right? It's because they're not projected to score a lot when I'm just using playoff numbers to kind of roughly project What these teams would be expected for three point eight three goals When factoring in how Bobrovsky and Aiden Hill have played so far, but obviously those are just expected goals They're not real goals and Bobrovsky and Hill played well above their regular season standards So there's your sign for a path to failure on the under But I still really like the way that these teams not getting a lot of high quality chances on net And I just mentioned the two best bull tenders in the playoffs in these series I have to lean to the under especially when it said sitting right around even money. It was minus 104 I'm not sure where it has gone today But I really do like the under in this game for sure. It's so 104 right now So still getting that same price there and you mentioned not sure what people had said on the show earlier on this week But synergy because Tom Vecchio was on Wednesday I this week is weird with the Monday being off But he was on Wednesday said you like the under goals for the series at 33 and a half part of it because you know There are a lot of routes that happening But also because he thought it'd be a low scoring series so under five and a half minus 104 you and Tom Synergy love to hear it as always Let's talk now about the NBA before I dig into game two specifically awesome I didn't want to go back to game one and outline What you saw there because we're numbers people, you know, that's how we live but watching that game Were there any key takeaways any key surprises for you that will impact the way you view this heat nugget series going forward? So the personnel mismatch in the front court was not something I was surprised by in that It seemed like Miami felt too small inside the broadcasting team made that comment in the first quarter as Aaron Gordon was having a ton of success But the game was actually more competitive than I was expecting to be honest with you which is you know What we want to hear we want to see a back-and-forth series if you don't have a dog in the fight And I feel like Miami won a very key area to me They kept Nicole Yocuch off the offensive glass They had a 22% offensive rebounding rate as a team just 15.8 percent for Denver that is huge And luckily there's not really a schematic adjustment You could match up differently on in rebounding assignments But that's more so about personnel and it's about effort and Miami's done that very well the entire playoffs despite being poor at it In the regular season and I think you see you saw that come out in game one My own Miami also didn't turn the ball over it's on and by the way all those series previews We did talking about what Denver had in their category what Miami had in their category Well, we talked about Miami having the better coach with Eric Spolster and what he's drawn up so far That this is where it has to matter right heading into game two Miami held Denver to just 29.7% from three They'll have to do that close now. What is the personnel adjustment? How do they stop some of the interior onslaught between Gordon Yocuch? Michael Porter was attacking the rim more than he was last night Do they move Kevin Love into the starting lineup? Do they lean more on Haywood Highsmith is kind of a longer guy at that four position than Caleb Martin? That will be the question for me going into game two Yeah, and I think that the question always is Did your prior change from what you saw entering game one? It sounds like based on what you said Your thoughts in the series heading in still applies. We had to game two. Is that a correct summation of your thoughts here? Um, I actually feel this way I did not feel before last night that Miami could get this to a six or seven game series I absolutely feel that way now There's more that there's a much more obvious path because if you're keeping gut You know the offensive rebounding and the turnover thing that is more tangible and predictable game-to-game within a series shooting Can fluctuate so I actually saw a lot with Miami that I really liked it where I thought they were gonna get bullied in this series Was on the offensive glass was in turnover battles, but they didn't and they played actually pretty well They missed a ton of open threes, which we'll get to here in a minute When talking about the total for game two, but I was actually impressed And I think Miami can actually grab a couple of games in this series Maybe extend it out and if you got Jimmy Butler, you never know what could happen So maybe some surprise optimism coming off of a game one defeat by double digits Let's talk now about game number two where we have the nuggets of eight and a half point favorites total for this game is 214 and a half and the spread is down a half a point from game one and the total at down two points I believe where it was for game one So any value for you with where things currently stand Austin? so When I say that I think Miami can prolong the series I am in a similar position for just specifically game two and Denver because in game one I wrote up in my betting guide over a number five. I don't lean toward Denver spread I've got the same lean here, and I think it's because Denver is such a hard team for me They break so many rules when it comes to play off basketball They would be just the second team with a defensive rating outside the top 12 in the regular season to win the title since 1980 only the 2001 Lakers were the exception which makes sense yet. Jack and Kobe You have Yoko Chajumal Murray a couple duos that don't play a ton of defense So makes a lot of sense and you know, they're losing on the offensive glass They're not really forcing turnovers But Denver kind of breaks the rules in that they don't really have to do those things They've only had an effective field goal rate below 50% once in this entire playoffs And by the way, they still ended up winning that game against Phoenix. They just don't have cold shooting nights So I can consistently count on them for above a 50% effective field goal rate If they get the looks they did in game one If Miami has a hard time getting to the free throw line like they did in game one That could be a real issue for Miami I think Miami can absolutely contend at home They get a more favorable whistle statistically at home, but at ball arena. I'm just not sure I kind of lean toward the nuggets, but no official action I'll be watching this number throughout the weekend and you mentioned the total in passing as well total right now 214 and a half any read for that one on you So I wrote up under 219. That was my big bet for game one. We just got a hundred and ninety seven total points Right, so I should just be all in on this under 214 and a half I do lean this way, but I do have a bit of a concern So I used a projected pace of ninety six point one to project the pace between these two teams for game one It was ninety three point zero So it was actually lower So I got even better of a slow pace than I would have expected betting the under But the problem is the open threes were a mess for both of these teams defensively Both teams took at least forty six threes and by the way in basketball Three point attempts is a better measure of three point defense and percentage because if you can can be kind of random But they took a ton of attempts and when you look at wide open threes which MBA comm their advanced tracking stats to find is six Plus feet between you and the defender Denver went twenty five percent in game one on those shots Which is very uncharacteristic Miami went thirty one point three percent Both of these teams in the playoffs have been in the forties on those wide wide open shots They missed a lot of them and so I feel good about the pace, but then I feel really badly about Yeah, the three so this is another number. I think I'm watching with great sensitivity I think it's more likely to see significant movement than the spread And if this total drops to maybe two twelve I think I might be interested in the over if it continues to rise people like to bet the over It's more fun to root for points than misses. I might actually be on the under again So I'm watching it with keen eyes, but I do have a tiny lean to the under right now Okay, that number as mentioned right now two fourteen and a half for the total tune the nuggets and the heat for game two Over at fangirls sports book any final thoughts for you, Austin whether it be on stand the cup NBA finals anything for you Send you off for the weekend It's weird the parallels in the series as I was thinking of myself last night before the game started You've got a Miami team and eight seed that everyone counted out They knocked off the best team in the league according to everybody in the first round and then you've got this seed Vegas had the most points in the Western Conference Denver had the most wins at the Western Conference We kind of forgot about them until everybody else kind of unraveled and here they were left and What's weird is I think the hockey series will be far more competitive than than the NBA series, but you do never know I think both of these series could definitely give us six or seven games and a good ride Well, the betting markets agree with you based on how tight that Panthers and Golden Knights Series prices are for sure. All right That is Austin Swain check out his work on Twitter at a swing three find all his other stuff over at number fire Dot-com Austin a pleasure to talk to you as always Enjoy the games this weekend enjoy some USC as well. We'll talk to you once again here on the show soon Sounds good Jim. Have a great weekend bud. Alrighty. Thank you once again to Austin Find him on Twitter at a swing three and check out his work over at number fire dot-com We're gonna dive into some baseball action for Friday here in just one segment first It is almost time to crown an NBA champion and fan dual wants you to be a part of the excitement because right now New customers get a no-sweat first bet up to $2,500 that is $2,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win There is no better place to bet all the finals action than on America's number one sports book fan dual Official sports betting partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and president select states first online real money Wager only $10 deposit required refund issued is non with trouble bonus bets that expire in 14 days We're strict to supply seafold terms at fan dual comms sports book Fan dual is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit fan dual comm slash RG in Arizona 1-800 next step or text next step to five three three four two in Connecticut one eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven Or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana one eight hundred nine with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1-800 five two two forty seven hundred in Kansas pay as gambling health comm Louisiana is one in seven seven seven seven zero stop in Massachusetts gambling helpline ma.org or call eight hundred three two seven fifty fifty four twenty four seven support in Maryland empty gambling health org in New York one eight seven seventy to open wire text open wide and in West Virginia Go to 1-800 gambler.net Pretty limited card for me in baseball for today, but still so that's I do like to which occur in the same game That is for the Braves and the Diamondbacks I like both the Diamondbacks money line at plus one oh six and Merrill Kelly's strikeout prop Which we'll get to you in a second Let's start things off with the Arizona money line again at plus one oh six I have Arizona as the favorites in this game So I will take the plus money on the money line here Merrill Kelly again The key cog for both these bets has pitched really well this year He's been leaning more and has changed up and it's led to a three point six four skill interactive e r.a. Across 11 starts that that skill interactive e r.a. Is good I think the key component that strike out or in that skill attractive e r.a. Is the strikeout right obviously if I'm on the strikeout over as well, but The reason I want that here is because the Braves when they make contact They tend to do so with a lot of authority and I want to mute that and getting more strikeouts can better allow You to do so the Diamondbacks Solid bullpen not phenomenal by any means about a league average defense Not on the same level as the Braves in terms of their their bullpen, but it's not bad I think the Braves the better team the Braves at one point in this spring were the number one team my power rankings They're not there right now, but they are still pretty far up there Arizona not quite there But what we get here is equal I think starting pitching between Charlie Borden Merrill Kelly Borden does have some or has had some pretty extreme Home road splits in the past not as much here recently this year, but I think that's an edge there and you get Arizona at home I think that's enough to make Arizona the favorite in this game So plus 106 on the Arizona money line definitely enough for me to dive in so I will take that and go with the Diamondbacks at plus 106 on the money line the Kelly strikeout prop right now at Vanduels sportsbook The over is a plus 114 over five and a half strikeouts I talked about the strikeouts before more change-ups this year for Kelly and he's hit six plus strikeouts six times in eleven games So more than half his games He has hit the over on this number and he's done so in form is past five now That's not the sample. I'm looking at because I haven't seen a major change in Philosophy velocity anything like that for Kelly in this five-starred sample So I am not putting it to the smaller sample leaning on the full year data Still looking at an over here on Kelly Definitely not a fun matchup here facing off of the Braves because they are a team with a lot of very dangerous bats But also not a low strikeout team their active roster has a 23.1% strikeout rate against righties so far this year so about the average in that regard So you get Kelly at home pretty elevated pitch count. I've got him projected at let's see here I believe a hundred pitches for today. So decent pitch counts Decent matchup as far as strikeouts go at home where he does get a boost as well. I think that's enough to make Kelly Pretty attractive in terms of the strikeout prop market for today My strikeout projection for Merrill Merrill Kelly 6.7 strikeouts that may seem kind of high, but it's there for a reason So Merrill Kelly over six five and a half strikeouts plus 114 is a good bet As always with this being vandal sportsbook you have the opportunity to same game parlay those as mentioned the caveat is I don't tend to do this most often I think this is a situation though where the bets do correlate well because if Kelly hits the over here That implies he's pitching. Well getting deep in game suppressing the bats for the Braves and the same game parlay price here Would be plus 259 given we are getting plus money on both overs I think I'd rather play these independently and go Kelly over five and a strikeouts at Plus 114 the Diamondbacks money line at plus 106 I think that's a better route than the same game parlay, but if you know you want to have some fun It's a Friday night I get it for sure do so responsibly plus 259 the same game parlay price there, but for me personally I will go with independent bets With the Diamondbacks money line plus 106 and the Kelly strikeout prop over at plus 114 Only one of the bet that stands out to me a bunch for tonight that is in the Giants and the Orioles game I like Logan Webb strikeout prop the over for him at five and a half strikeouts is minus 106 facing off here against the Orioles Orioles offense to great love them. This is not about them This is just about Logan Webb web has hit over five and a half strikeouts in 8 of 11 starts so far this year so well over the 52% you need to get to value at minus 106 So that's one thing But six starts ago. He also increased the velocity on his slider a pretty decent amount I'm not sure if that was something he like planned to do or if it's a altered pitch for him in any way, but Since then his strikeout rate is 24.8 percent. That's actually down from where he was earlier on this year I still think that's most relevant sample given that it is a pretty tangible shift in the way He's throwing his slider, which is a with pitch for him So even if I lop off the first five games for web this year and focus on that more recent sample I still get web projected for 6.5 strikeouts tonight So the over here minus 106 on five and a half strikeouts even if I go again with the lower strikeout samples I think is a better sample for Logan Webb. I still show value in the over here again This is not about Baltimore. I adore their offense. They've been very good to me so far this year It's about web web is at home Temperatures are cool as always in San Francisco. That's good for pitching for sure So I will take web over five and a strikeouts minus 106 even being conservative. I think in his projection I do still like the over here. So full MLB car for today Logan Webb over five and a strikeouts minus 106 Arizona Moneyline at plus 106 and Merrill Kelly over five and a half strikeouts at plus 114 If you want to pair them together go ahead, but not for me personally for today That's all we got here for this Friday show on covering the spread got to give a big Thank you once again to Austin Swain for swinging by breaking down his thoughts on game one in the Stanley Cup finals and game two in The NBA give him a follow on Twitter at a swing three as always. I'm on Twitter at Jim Soddus JMS a NNES who wants the thoughts on some NASCAR and Formula one went through that on yesterday's show find that in the Covering the spread podcast feed and over on the fan dual YouTube page want to thank you all for tuning in Good luck to you with your bets across this weekend. Enjoy all the fantastic sports We'll talk to you once again on Monday for some more betting action This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network