 Buck and Tregors to have a techno weekly market outlook for week commencing the 15th of August with me Patrick Munnerley Okay, let's check out what we've got on tap in terms of data this week starting in the US on Tuesday July industrial production month of month last time 0.3 consensus now is for 0.2 2 prints with some out is actually expecting a negative 0.2 print for July industrial production then we move to Wednesday and We have retail sales in the US Headline US retail sales are expected to rise 0.1 percent in July calling from June's 1% print While the ex-auto's metric is seed declining 1% from the prior 1% gain the retail control will be used to help gauge initial expectations for Q3 GDP after the two consecutive quarters of contraction this year as it seems a good gauge of consumer spending a large component of GDP with retail sales being reported on a nominal value Slowing price declines could act as a headwind in July after the call of an expected July CPI Reports after the June retail sales were supported by higher prices the Atlanta Fed GDP now Model is tracking Q3 growth at 2.5 percent This will likely change throughout the next week as we get the inputs from retail sales housing data and industrial production also on Wednesday, we have the FMC minutes to FMC lifting rates by 75 basis points to 2.2 to 2.5 cent as expected Taking rates back to neutral for the first time since 2019 the only major tweak to the statement was its reassessment of the economy the Fed now Acknowledges that the recent indicators of spending and production have softened This change will be expected to be given the softening in many key Macro indicators the statements offer no clues about what the Fed will do is at its September meeting However, during the press conference that chair power abandoned concrete forward guidance and said decisions will be data dependent Unless we look into the minutes to see how my Henry participants agreed with this approach Since the meeting plenty of Fed speakers have been using the data dependent line for the next decisions But it's clear appetite is for another 75 basis point hiking in September or a slower 50 basis point hike market is now pricing Lean towards the 50 basis point after the latest CPI Report but the minutes will not incorporate that data So there is a risk of a minute sounding more hawkish But it is also it will not have incorporated the hot July jobs Reports given the hot jobs report and cool CPI since the latest meeting the minutes may be deemed quite stale given the Fed's data dependent starts They're moving into Thursday. Obviously initial claims may have started to creep up to two six five Was the last print looking now for a two six two print in the week ahead continuing claims 1428 we also get July existing home sales looking for a five point one two Print there and that runs out the data in terms of the US next week So let's take a look at the charts from technical perspective I'm looking for the dollars do a double correction here ultimately We are looking for a test of the one oh two sixty from now I'll be watching for bullish reversal patterns to reengage on the long side Looking for another push higher to tag this 110 target at this stage It would really take a close back through monthly projected race for our one oh two 18 To suggest that we have more meaningful high in place and with them looking back to the one oh one twenty six level To the downside moving to the Eurozone in terms of the data for the week ahead kickoff things in Eurozone Tuesday and get June total trade balance looking for a negative 26 print there versus the negative 24 print last time out We also get the Germans any W survey Analyst forecast expectations to remain below pre-pandemic levels Overall business sentiment remains depressed amid major concerns about the energy supply in Germany and the ECB's announced interest rates hike Pandemic disruptions in China may also hurt the economic outlook We also then get on Wednesday Q2 flash estimate GDP looking for a Point set a zero point seven print there and then on Thursday We get July CPI looking for that to print in line with the last Reading which was an eight point nine print there in terms of CPI in the Eurozone so from a technical perspective You're a dollar has tested the descending trend line resistance and we did see some supply coming to the market on Friday, but as we hold the pivot here at one oh two I'm looking for a test of one oh four eighteen, which is the quality objective versus this current swing structure Now it's gonna get interesting here because if we if it said it does develop the bearish Reversal pattern there look to move back down into the pivot this pivot test here at the one zero zero Nineties gonna be key if we get through there I'm anticipating roll over take out the current swing lows and make a move to EMS three down to the 97 70s However, if we hold the pivot similar to the setup in terms of the dollar index We could see a double correction that juncture I'd be looking for us to test the high volume Oh one oh five twenties and once you get there again I want you to bearish reversal patterns to be engaged on the short side ultimately looking for that 97 70s Yearly history to get tested Moving to the UK and Got the data coming out in the UK in a week ahead on Tuesday we have the June IOL unemployment rate looking for Looking for a 3.8 print there and the employment change to come in at two nine six Analysts at Investec forecast a 240k gain in employment and combined with high participation rate This should have kept the jobless rates steady at 3.8 percent base effects should bring down the rates of pay Growth after one-off boost last year where many workers returned to full-time work from reduced 80 percent furlough pay and then on Wednesday we get UK CPI Consensus forecast headlines CPI rising to 9.7 percent From the 9.4 percent the core is seen hold set it holding steady at 5.8 percent again unless the investex say the easing in supply chain issues may contain the core rate But higher food prices should boost the headline the latter is expected to rise above 12% in the early Q4 and remain elevated Then ran up thing things on Friday in the UK with UK retail sales Expectations are for an unchanged headline print and Core reading at negative zero point four percent the two bank holidays may play have it with the data Analysts see no relief for the rest of the year and start of 2023 as the economy heads into Recession it's from a technical perspective Sterling this is the current swing load that we have here just above 120 I'm looking for an equality test up to 125 50s From there watch for bearish person happens to re-engage on the short side However, we did close pretty weak on Friday. We're holding above the pivot cluster here But if we take out that that 120 pay on the downside then I'll be looking for a new test of the price cycle lows 170 on route to a 115 test Moving to Japan in terms of data. We are on the light side there next week. We have Do we have here So the only real data of note Coming this week on the 18th August is Japan's CPI inflation for July This could start to top out and face downside pressure much of the run-up to date has been driven by oil prices And obviously a week again both of which have softened of late WTI in terms of USD terms It's fallen from its peak at the 122 about dollars per barrel This prior run-up erroneously led some market participants to argue that the Bank of Japan would have to adopt some form of tightening measure And perhaps its 10-year JGB yield target was vulnerable The problem with that narrative was always that this isn't the kind of inflation that the Bank of Japan wants It is inclined to view the effects of inflation derived from higher oil prices and a week again as a transitory and hence unlikely to deliver the medium to long-run 2% inflation goal Bank of Japan has Estimated that one standard deviation move in the end roughly 4% adds about 0.1 to 0.2% to inflation Over the next two to eight quarters before subsiding further the same paper estimated that our one standard deviation In oil prices of roughly 15% would add 0.1 0.3 per cent To inflation before subsiding Japan has been experiencing Relative price shock as commodity importers with a weakening currency But these influences may be waning and the second round effects in the context of soft wage gains could be more Disinflationary in Japan and elsewhere so from a technical perspective the dolly yen did hold that 135 50 tests and we did see some some set off last week, but we Consolidated Thursday and Friday So there's the potential that we do a double correction here and retest the 136 30s before heading once again to the downside But as well whilst we hold the pivot here at the one 3550s I'm looking for a 126 88 quality test before looking to re-engage on the long side for the next move to the upside and Rounding out things down under in Australia really the Focus next week is going to be on the RBA minutes on Tuesday The RBA will release the minutes from the August 2nd meeting where it hiked the cash rate target by 50 basis points to 1.85% As expected while it reiterated that the board expects to take further steps in the process of normalizing monetary conditions And is committed to doing what is necessary to ensure that inflation in Australia returns to the target over time But noted that it's not a preset path furthermore It reaffirmed its view that inflation is expected to peak later this year and then decline back towards the two to three percent range and Stated that a key source of uncertainty continues to be the behavior of household spending The announcement by the RBA immediately pressured you the Aussie dollar given the lack of any major hawkish surprises while the RBA's quarterly statement on monetary policy released last week Showed that meeting was met with muted reaction as it's largely stuck to the script Regarding expectations of taking further normalization steps and the central bank's reference to not being on a preset path And we round out the week in Australia on Thursday with the Australian jobs report The July employment change is expected to show the addition of 25,000 jobs versus a previous 88.4,000 while the unemployment rate and participation rates are seen steady at three point five percent and sixty six 8% respectively unless at Westpac Expect a plus 50k metric for the employment change with the rationale being the business surveys consumer sentiment surveys and job Vacancies all point to continuing solid demand for labor weekly payrolls for July did reveal some weakness But these are not seasonally adjusted and the ABS noted higher than usual absences for illnesses and holidays Which affect ours worked rather than employment from a policy perspective the RBA's priority for the time being is inflation in the latest Statements second of August government low suggested employment is growing strongly Consumer spending has been resilient and an upswing in business investments is underway The board is committed to what is necessary to ensure that inflation in Australia returns to target over time So from a technical perspective, I've got a nice set up developing here I'm watching now for a test of the equality objective versus the 68 69 learn looking for a 72 28 tests Now from there, I'm watching for bearish reversal patterns to fade that move looking in for a pullback into Pitchfork support back into that 60 860s and from there once again looking for bullish reversal patterns to re-engage on the long side But then taunting a test of the descending trend line resistance and the midpoint of the pitchfork up to 74 60s As we round things out as always Let's take a quick look at Bitcoin and see how we're trading over the weekend here We have tested once again at 25 level butts found some supply again I'm ultimately looking for Bitcoin now to test this Descending trend channel resistance 28,120s and from there I'm gonna be watching for bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side still looking for that 12,185 tests at this stage really see it weekly close through the down trend channel here to suggest We have a more meaningful learning place And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 15th of August as always traders plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly manage all this until next time. Thanks very much