 What's up guys, this is Alex from Xtrade, back to you with another weekly trade ideas list. And this week should have a pretty interesting week once again. We do have a triple witching week, which is when three different assets are all expiring at the same time, like options, you know, futures and things like that. And we also have an FOMC meeting, if you don't know, we're going to be listening to Jerome Powell and hoping we get a hint at maybe rate hike slowing or something that's going to show us maybe the Fed's going to slow down on their fight for inflation. So far we haven't really seen too much of the data to imply that, but you never know. A couple of months where the data is just really not enough to really give us the hint, you know, if we can hear something directly from the Federal Reserve, maybe, you know, we can get a much better hint, you know, on how to make our next move, et cetera. So to get into our first setups here, just to add to that, we're going to be looking at four short setups. Personally, I think we'll be a little bearish, you know, you maybe look, you know, for puts on these, and then we have one call setup, you know, you'd be looking for logs. So our first one here, we're looking at Netflix. We do have a clear like rising wedge forming. This would be unconfirmed, obviously, because it's not, you know, breaking down the wedge as such. But you do have a clear line of, you know, resistance here. And this is actually a third test resistance. So the third test on trendline is actually really good. You can see right here, you got test one, test two, test three, and you see test three in the uptrend. Really nice move. Likewise, you get, you know, test one, you can even count maybe this one as a test, you know, if we move the trend line over a little bit. Count that as a test here. If you wanted, it just depends on. I like to use the wicks. So we do the clear area of resistance here, whether this reversal candle, nasty bearish looks like a hammer shooting star, whatever you want to call it. You do have a big seller's wick at the top showing there was pressure all the way from this high down into the close. You do have a little mini gap here as well. Let me draw that real quick. So the gaps, obviously, it's an area where there wasn't any supplier demand price totally skipped through it. So this is a lack of liquidity area. And they tend to fill pretty quick to kind of catch back up, you know, with those orders that hadn't been filled in this area. So again, it is, you know, literally somebody jumping off a cliff. Right. I mean, you got nothing holding you right here and fills up. And then you finally land on the platform and it holds up. So yeah, you got test number one, test two, test three. Like I said, you'd be looking for a move down to the next trend line. And I probably try to crop about there. You also have a little pivot right here. So you can maybe look about there too. We can't really go beyond that. And we can't call this a rising wedge yet because it's not confirmed. It's not breaking the uptrend line, etc. So this is kind of like a you're looking ahead using this move off the resistance as a projection to move down to here. And hopefully that makes sense. So we're going to be looking at puts on this. Probably gonna stick to like day trades this week. If you're going to do swing trades, I would stick to, you know, option contracts that are going to have, you know, 30 to 60 days of expiration that can deal with the volatility of the FOMC meeting because there's going to be a big move in either direction. So all the technical analysis that we're looking at here, I mean, it can get blown out of the water. So keep that in mind and trade safe. Next, we're going to FXI. So this is a China large cap ETF. So this has all like your big name Chinese names, all grouped into a weighted ETF. So I'm sure you got like Alibaba, you know, JD, PDD, stuff like that. You know, the large cap China stocks, probably like 10 cent, you know, those names. So we do have Fibonacci retracement tool here. If you don't know, this measures the percent of a move that stocks retrace. So you got this high down to low. And there's your Fibonacci levels. You got the 23.6 percent, 38.2 percent, the 50 percent. So this is your halfway point. And then finally, what they consider the golden ratio, which is a 61.8 percent. And a lot of times stocks will find resistance here. Sometimes they'll go over, bounce, back test and rip off of there. But right now with FXI, you can see we do have a clear area of resistance right off the 61.8 and right off supply. That's a pretty big supply. This did lead to a big green day leading to a gap down with a lot of follow through selling afterward. So if something clearly happened, this nice imbalance in this area and you also have the 200 EMA, so you got three areas of confluence. You got the supply. You got the 61.8 and you also have the 200 EMA. So a clear sign of resistance, in my opinion. We even did a trend line up here and right here. And you can see, I mean, it's getting tight, kind of like a rising wedge. What we're just looking at on Netflix, just a little bit tighter. And, you know, since China does trade in a different time zone, you will see a lot of gaps on these Chinese names. So that's why you see all the price spread out and see these huge gaps. Different time zones can result in, you know, a way different, sometimes even a way different cash open than what you'd have on the U.S. stock market. You can just see, I mean, just crazy swings, crazy gaps. So just something to be mindful of. And, you know, China's political nature right now is, I mean, it's just insane. You know, they do have riots and, you know, a lot of protesting going on. So along with, you know, COVID lockdowns and all that good stuff. So they just got to be careful of China names. But they do give a lot of good volatility to trade. So ideally, with this FXI setup, you'd be looking for this trend line to break. So maybe if you want to wait for confirmation first, this is still forming. And since it's so tight, maybe you don't want to answer right away, maybe look for a little bit of downside. We're going to be looking for a breakdown of this trend line. And that'll give you a good confirmation of a flush. Probably down to this 50% fit, which is also this little pit below here. So yeah, another rising wedge that you can keep on watch. Along with your three areas of confluence, you got supply. You got 200 EMA and also trend line resistance and 61.8. So, I mean, you could even count that as four areas of confluence if you want it. One thing you do get going against you, KDJ is still giving positive signal. MACD is still giving positive signal. But that's just, you know, a little extra confirmation. I guess you would use an indicator. This we're just focusing on price and, you know, the moving averages, you know, feeble levels, stuff where, you know, price is real time. So to kind of piggyback on that, I see real time because indicators actually, most indicators are lagging. They're using past price data, you know, implement into the code and give you your indicator. So, so far we're looking at Netflix, rising wedge forming, not confirmed. Same with FXI, rising wedge not confirmed. The FXI, you could wait for the breakdown. Netflix, it looks like it's already giving you an entry back down to the treadline. So that's where they differ. Next, we're going to Starbucks. So there's a lot of like rising wedges forming right now, you know, trend line breaks and stuff that looks like it's about break down, which is why I'm watching mostly puts this week. And along with the seasonality, we'll see there is a dip up to the 15th. So I was Starbucks here, you got test one, test two, three, four. This is actually a fifth test. It looks like a faked out of breakout came back within the trend line resistance, while also having up trend line where it does have three tests. You got test one, two, three, it bounced here and now it's breaking down the trend line. So ideally, you'd be looking for you know, maybe remove this is actually a demand area we can mark. So you got a rally based rally demand zone. Ideally, that would be your general area for a price target if this wants to fall. So probably come out here, curl up about there. But you can see, I mean, price is exiting the up trend line and you do have this really long area of trend line resistance. So it's kind of like a rising wedge, but I wouldn't really call it that just because these diameters are, you know, kind of far from each other. So another thing you do have going for you to on this bearish setup is that you get the MACD crossing down. But like I said, it is a lagging indicator. So sometimes you get a MACD cross down, you see stocks bounce, fake everybody out and fall later. So, you know, it's not always going to be right away. The MACD crosses, you're going to get a flush. So that's why I think it's important to use, you know, trend lines and stuff that's kind of recent rate and real time. Stuff is more focused on price at that exact time. And that's what trend lines and support and resistance, they all do. Netflix, FXI, S books, all puts and pretty close price targets. You're not going to be aiming for anything crazy this week. All you can do is play the levels, play with some front of you. So yeah, just make sure you trade safe. SLV is another one. I know these rising wedges are probably driving out crazy. Here's another one. You got test number one, test two. This is actually the third test. So you'd be looking for a confirmation candle showing, you know, sellers did indeed take control. You might see that about the cash open. You'll want to see the US dollar, you know, rising and stuff like that. Because the dollar will move inverse to metals. So when the dollar is falling, you'll see gold and silver, sometimes copper, they'll come up when you see, you know, you'll see the opposite, you know, in the opposite scenario. So when the dollar is rising, you'll see, you know, metals, copper, gold, et cetera, they'll all fall. So this would just be the same thing kind of as Netflix. You'd be looking for a move back to the trend line, probably try to crop about there. And then if you wanted to wait for the rising wedge to break, there is another trade there. Otherwise, I mean, when it comes back down to the trend line, I mean, you could even if you're bullish, you could even look for a crop about there and try to, you know, maybe look at calls or something. Just going off the trend line resistance here. I do want to see a rejection. I think it looks more preferable than going along here. So all we're doing is just playing the trend line and playing the level. So you just want to make sure, you know, you are waiting for confirmation of sellers. You're going to see that, you know, about the cash open or maybe the night before in the futures. Something that's showing you that, you know, maybe sellers are starting to kick in and look for volume and pay attention to that dollar, especially. So yeah, puts on that. So that's our four put setups. All clear. I mean, they're basically all trend line resistance, you know, rising wedge, et cetera. So just make sure you do wait for that confirmation showing that, you know, the trend line resistance is still valid. So next we'll go into lift. This is actually a falling wedge setup that is actually kind of breaking out. If we go down to the four hour, you do have your four hour candle that broke out here. You got a confirmed close outside of it. Now you'd want to go ahead and see, you know, see it back test the line, you know, curl up after back testing, head into this little, you know, see it heading up to this 11.59 level. And also that meets with the four hour 50 EMA, which was a clear area resistance up here, clear area resistance right here. Had a little trouble right here, but once it got over, you can see it does find a nice balance to the upside. So, you know, the four hour 50 EMA is also a good tool to re-trend. So we are under it that does put you at risk, but you do have the four hour MACD crossing up. You do have the KDJ crossing up. And you have your breakout. So it's kind of like a counter-trend wedge reversal. Could be good for calls. We'll be looking at, you know, calls in this maybe, depending on how growth wants to do. So if you want to pay attention to high growth names, you'll, you know, look at maybe like the ARC ETF, pay attention, you know, the Uber, UPST names that aren't really pulling out any profits, but are high growth focus. And a lot of those names, you know, they do report in a loss of earnings per share. So the names like the large caps like Netflix and, I mean, like Apple, all them, you know, they're flipping a profit. So that's what makes them different than high growth. They are tech stocks, but they're not high growth. They're not something you're investing in, you know, pre-profits. There's something you're investing before they actually achieve that, you know, in hopes of when they do start, you know, getting profits and are able to reward their shareholders more to see that reflected in the equity price. So just consider lift a high growth name. It is risky. We're in a rising interest rate environment. So just make sure, you know, you're looking at other high growth names, see if they're catching the bid, et cetera. So yeah, that's our five setups. These are our five individual names. You know, I like to trade like the spy ETF, trade the spy ETF, you know, QQQ, really any of the ETFs because I like how they move the options are cheap. So go ahead and go into ES, which is the S&P 500. We're going to the NQ, which is the NASDAQ, or pretty much QQQ, and then RTY, which is, you know, basically the IWF, which is the Russell 2000. Let's go into ES first. All right, so there's ES, S&P 500, basically is spy. I like using these for the Sunday night videos because the futures do open on Sunday night, and we can get a little insight into how the pre-Sunday move is before the Monday open. So with ES and spy, these are two clear areas of resistance and support. We've got 39, 44, and also 41, 42. So ideally for bears, you're going to see, oh, also we have this 50 EMA. So this is the daily 50 EMA, daily 200 EMA. Ideally, bears are going to see it get under here. But as you're going to see it crawl up about here, head back up to the 200 EMA area, hopefully maybe get through that. And then you really can't go past this resistance yet because you don't know how it's going to react to it. So this is your trading range at the moment, and it will depend on the FOMC meeting and also see how the options expiry is on Friday. So yeah, those are your two areas to focus on. Trendline-wise, which is my favorite tool, you did break it. We broke the trendline, you got test one, test two, test three, came up for the fourth, broke down, but holding the 50 EMA like glue, and also this pivot low, came back up, kind of back tested the general area, and then they're coming back down on Friday. You do have a negative MACD crossover, and you also do have a negative KDGA crossover, and that KDGA crossover actually came way earlier. So the KDGA is more like real time, but sometimes you will get false signals from it. MACD is kind of lagging, but sometimes the signals are a little bit more solid. Like you can see MACD in here stood in a bi-signal way longer than the KDGA did. You can see a lot of the cross-downs on the KDGA happened here, happened right here, while the MACD did stay in a consistent bi-signal up until recently. So that's the only difference. They do have different parameters and they're coded differently, but generally they are pretty similar because you're looking for a cross-down, looking for a cross-down, looking for a cross-up, looking for a cross-up, and both of these indicators will give you that. So this is your trading range, bulls you're gonna see a hold up here, bears you're gonna see a breakdown, break the 50 EMA, and also stay under the trendline I did have QQQ puts last week, I was able to exit those for a decent gain, and then I was waiting for it to maybe come up and back test before re-entering puts, and I did enter some supply puts for January expiration, entered it a little bit higher, maybe like up here. They're only up like 5% so far, because they are a little bit further out, so it's not gonna move as quickly. So we do need to get under this key level, to start seeing those gain a little bit more. If it does flush the level, you have a rally-based rally demand here, so it's rally, creates a base, huge rally, which is actually on the CPI, the last CPI print, and after that CPI print, we did chop around because people weren't sure if that was like sign for the Fed to slow down on raising or what, so that's why now this FOMC meeting is gonna be so huge. How are we gonna respond to the data that came out? What is your own policy gonna say? Are we gonna slow down on rate hikes? How long are we gonna keep them raised for? Most people are assuming it's gonna be up until 2023, but you never know. Yeah, right now, I mean, the economy is gonna start seeing a lot more slow growth, you start seeing big companies and their earnings start to deplete a little bit, so you do have to be careful of going along in this environment. Maybe try to get the lows, don't buy up here, wait for the VIX to get over-extended to the upside. You might overpay on options, but you are getting a decent price because you're buying at lows, but you are buying with elevated premium when the VIX goes higher, so. If this level does break, probably head back down to this rally-based rally demand, curl up about there. It's about as far as I can go for the bears. Bowls, if it holds up, I mean, the farthest I can put you is probably at the back end of this trend line or the 200 EMA area, which just goes straight across here and then maybe I could curl up after that and head back up to that big resistance. So yes, the ES Spy, S&P 500, next we'll go into the NQ. Oh, I'm sorry, let's go into the seasonality for the ES, for SPX, so SPX, Spy, ES, all the same. Seasonax just offers the SPX, the S&P 500 instrument for free, so I go ahead and use that for the seasonality chart. You can see we do have December 12th through the 16th, this is our trading week, here's the 72 years of back data, we got the midterm elections, year selected, so you got 2022, 2018, and 2014, et cetera. And you can see we do average, what is that, 0.43% return, so we could have a little dip this week. Seasonality is pointing towards that. I would not doubt it, see another dip before maybe trying to rally up in the Christmas, but we'll have to see. So yeah, I am leaning a little bit more bearish biased. Could be wrong, seasonality's not always gonna be right, your technicals are not always gonna be right, but all you can do is play with some front of us, and try to put the puzzle pieces together, so. NQ, so this is the NASDAQ, give her this trend line, I don't know why I added that there. Do that, all right, you got test one, test two. Trying to do a test three, broke similar to the ES, maybe not as clean as the ES, ES did have a clear three, four tests before breaking down, so. NQ looks a little bit more choppy. You draw a trend line here, you can see it, you know, trying to hold up, you got test one, test two, test three, this is kind of like a support. So ideally for the bears, you wanna see it get under, what is this, pivot low. So use the magnet, get the precise, that's 11,537. So we're gonna see it get under 11,500, if you wanna, you know, kind of round it up, and also get under this trend line, fill this hole by imbalance area, and you know, head into this little drop-based rally demand. So it's a, I'm sorry, rally-based rally demand. So this is a rally, creates a base, huge rally, just like ES, so that would be your price target for tech if it did wanna break down. That's about as far as I can put you because I don't know how it's gonna react to demand. You know, same if it was running up into supply, I wouldn't know, you know, for the bulls how much higher it could go because I don't know how it's gonna react to supply. And you can see why. I mean, once it came up here, the NASDAQ, once it came up to this yellow area that I just added, you know, the 12,200 area, I mean, you don't know what it's gonna do past that. So you can really only use this as your, you know, max short-term price target. You know, if it hadn't hit this yet, and this was your trading range, this was as far as you could go. And so you see a break over, make a base, and then go higher. So that's all trading is, making sure this holds, making sure that holds, making sure this breaks, making sure that breaks. And yeah, that's trading, that's all it is. So you just get a checklist, make sure that your levels are holding or breaking, and go about your trade. All you can do is take the risk, and, you know, risk your money. That's all you can do. If you don't take the risk, you know, you might not get the reward. So learn technical analysis, learn what works most of the time. It's not gonna be 100%, but you know, history has proven that, you know, these technical analysis setups, I mean, they do pay off pretty good. How many of you follow them? So yeah, we're gonna be looking for that level of the flush. Bulls, they're gonna be looking for that to hold. You do have this trend line burden in the way of the uptrend line. Cause you know, if it doesn't wanna come back up, it could just reject off the back end. So Bulls, you're gonna see it, you know, reverse here. Literally reclaim over the trend line, show that it's worthless, and head back up to resistance. And you see that happen sometimes. And that can happen with Jerome Powell speaking, so. Just trade careful. Maybe stick to day trades, swing trades. Obviously you're gonna wanna see 30 to 60 day expiration at max, or I'm sorry, at minimum. Next, we'll go into the RTYs. This is the Small Mid-Cabs, this is the Russell 2000. Oh, accidentally added a second demand zone. So this is our Rally-Based Rally Demand Zone. It's inside of that. So I don't wanna be too bearish here. Cause there's a chance that, you know, it can chop around in this area, try to make a base. You can see that the other indexes recovered the ES and NQ, they hadn't reached that demand area yet, pre-CPI. So there's always a chance, you know, that this can hold up here. One thing the bears do have going for them, broke trend line very clearly. It's had multiple days of selling, went under the 50 EMA, and also has the MACD crossed at the downside, along with the KDJ down here, also crossed. So yeah, maximum, the bear is, I could put you, you know, at demand zone low. Bowls, if it does wanna, you know, stop halfway in this demand zone, or like maybe put you at the 50 EMA, you need to see where it goes from there if it can get above. You know, it can head back up to this general area of resistance. So you do kind of have this pretty decently wide trading range that could, you know, it could stay in for the next couple of weeks and months. You got your maximum low at 17.59, and then obviously, you know, your maximum high of, you know, 19.13. But you also have the 200 EMA to worry about. Short-term, you have to worry about the 50 EMA, and bears do have this demand zone to be worried about. So no clear setup on this at the moment. Bowls do have an argument to maybe buy inside demand for a counter-trend reversal back up. But otherwise, I mean, you know, stick to day trades, maybe wait for, you know, the vicks to go a little bit higher if you wanna buy calls or something. Or I mean, just wait, you know, for Jerome Powell to speak, you know, let the market hash it out for a couple of days, and then, you know, maybe you can find an entry or some more clarity after the fact, you know, after prices settled down a little bit. Cause I mean, entering before the volatility, it can be very stressful. You do want to go ahead and, you know, maybe go small on your position size, et cetera. But yeah, so that's our three indexes. We went over the ES, S&P 500, SPY, the NQ, QQQ, NASDAQ, RTY, you know, the Russell 2000, IWM, et cetera. So next we're going to the VIX. So the VIX, we were looking for the 19 area last week to hold up, make a base, and head back to 2264. Did exactly that, 2264. I got from this level, these two days, you can see Tuesday and Wednesday, November 29th through the 30th. And now it is trading a little bit over that. So if you're bearish, I mean, it looks decent for you here. Cause it did close over that. And the 22 average close did drop a little bit down to 2587. I really don't feel like the VIX will fall too much until it retests the 2282 average, or at least one of these moving averages. And then maybe it'll reverse back down and start selling off again, because it completed the meme regression. We'll just have to see how it reacts once it gets all the way up here. It seems like, you know, bull step in and you know, send equities higher and VIX lower. That's, and you get a nice reversal candle, kind of like how you see over here and up here. That'll give you confirmation that, you know, it's gonna head back down from the, from the, you know, average and go back down to test the lows. So yeah. Bulls, obviously, you're gonna wanna see it, you know, reject this 2264 area, head back down to 19. Bull, or bears, you're gonna wanna see it head back up to the moving averages, 22 average close, et cetera. Bears do have this MACD crossover to the upside. So that could send stocks a little bit lower, showing volatility is raising again, KDJ is crossing to the upside, also giving you another signal of that. We'll show you the data real quick just so you know that this average is legit. I manually found this myself. I plug in every single close for 2022 because this year has just been different. We've had very elevated volatility, thus giving us a 25.87 average close, which you can see down here. And it's a really good meme regression target if you didn't know. So when it got up to 35, we're looking for it to fall about there, head back to the average when it's, you know, around 27, 26, did exactly that. Next, we're looking forward to come down to 19 scaling inputs, did exactly that. One with QQQ, I even had XLF puts, bounced off 19 and now heading back to the average. So you can see once it gets too high, it's gonna meme regrets. Once it gets too low, it's gonna meme regrets back to averages. And that's kind of how you price in volatility, either going higher or lower. And you can not really exactly predict the market, but you'll know that eventually volatility is gonna come back up again or down, but it's too high. And that kind of gives you idea on your option premiums and how much you're paying, if you're overpaying, underpaying, et cetera. 2264 is the focus, either look for it to reject here or go higher personally. I mean, it looks like due to the MACD and closing over, it looks like it could go a little bit higher. I mean, I could just be biased looking at these setups. I mean, there's a lot of stuff that looks like it could get resistant soon. So that's why I'm looking at majority of puts. Obviously, I mean, you guys know, I'm gonna trade whatever. I trade the Camarilla Pivot Strategy, mainly it's my main source of income in the market. So I day trade like the SPX, the SPY a lot and stuff like that, but I really like these individual names for day trades sometimes, especially for swing trades. And that's why I show them to you on the daily time frame. So the DXY, you can see it's actually up 0.22%. Futures are down a little bit. So that could be why we're down. Currency traders starting to buy in, but you can see, I mean, we do have a positive MACD signal on the DXY, which is not promising because it's been in a sell signal all the way from October. So I mean, it's definitely not good for bulls. Also this 104.63 area has been a level of focus for us. And you can see, I mean, I got it from this over here. So that 104.63 came from this area. It's just a general area of support. Made a base in the general area. The only problem that the bears have, because if you're a bear, you do want the dollar to go up. That's why I say the bears. Am I talking about this in general? I'm talking about bears on equities. You're gonna see it get back over the 200 eBay, make a base on there, and head back into the 107 resistance areas. And the 107 resistance areas comes from this pivot, comes from this pivot, and then eventually it's gonna run into the 50 eBay, which is your next moving average. Bears, you're gonna wanna see it do exactly that, get over the 200 eBay. Bears, I mean, if you don't get under here soon, I mean, the dollar could start skyrocketing. So you wanna get it back under 103s, head back to that 102 level, or that 103 flat area I covered. I'll even zoom out and show it to you again. So your 103s, which I think will be tested eventually, your 103s is coming from this 2020 peak. So this is when COVID first came out, dollar rocketed before Fed policy totally just slammed our dollar into oblivion. And you can see once the Biden administration came back, came into office, you know, about 2021. I mean, dollars start to skyrocket because I mean, like it or not, the Fed during Trump era, I mean, they were printing a lot of money in order to support our United States people. So we did have people out of work. We had a lot of sickness going around, et cetera. Businesses were closing, so we did do a stimulus plan, along with the Fed, you know, putting massive amounts of bonds and mortgage-backed securities on their balance sheet. Another thing, you know, with all the closures and the reopening again, that will all contribute to inflation, thus resulting in our skyrocketing dollar. So this level from 22, you're gonna see it come back down eventually if you're bullish on equities. We're probably trying to curl up about there, but that's kind of like a little bit far away. So obviously, short-term, if you're a bull, you wanna see the dollar just get back under 104. And that can bring it back down to 103. So right now it's not looking too promising. The MACD signal is a big, that's really giving it away for me just because this signal stayed in a cell since October. You know, it's a pretty decent amount of time and it was pretty accurate. So we'll have to see. This would just be more like an oversold reversal and it will depend on the Federal Reserve, you know, coming this week. So we'll see what they have to say. Trade safe once again. I love you guys. Make sure you like, comment, and subscribe to our X-Trade YouTube channel. I'm gonna go ahead and edit this and get it out to y'all. Thank you.