 Hello and welcome to this edition of Fault Lines. I have with me Ambassador Bhadrakumar and we'll be discussing something which both here in India as well as most other places in the world seems to take a distant second place and that's really the continent of Africa. Now Africa is of course a growing continent both in terms of population, its natural resources and the political weight it carries or should carry but somehow it is always something which doesn't figure in the news unless it is bad news. Hurricane, some earthquake, some natural calamity, some other unfortunate happenings then only we get Africa in the news. You know coming back to the topic of Africa that's really a topic today. So we'll focus though of course not that the north of Africa is in much better conditions either in terms of wars and other disturbances that are taking place Libya being one of the key ones where Gaddafi was assassinated, ousted and of course what happens in Ethiopia, what's happening in Ethiopia, Somalia etc. Leaving that part out let's concentrate today on sub-Saharan Africa where a lot of the instability that we now see is getting much more visible. We have African Francophone Africa in turmoil we have also Congo we have Rwanda forces playing a role in Congo insurgency. So all these issues are there so in the midst of this we have of course Kamla Harris's visit to Africa and we also had second summit for democracy which is the American attempt to play this as liberal versus authoritarianism, liberalism versus authoritarianism as the only two currents in the world. So how do you know you have a much better view of all this and you've been a student of all of this if not a teacher of all of this for a long time. How do you see Africa today? How do you see its role in international politics particularly with the kind of hegemonic role that West has tried to play for a long time? How do you see Africa reacting or proactive on this? You see I see it from I see three dimensions there. Number one the most important thing is that is if all good politics is about economics and the creation of wealth of nations then let's start from that point. It's a very rich continent in terms of its resources it will be scrapped at the top you know this hidden below this vast resources in the continent. Secondly in the recent years we've seen the growth rate appreciably increasing so there is a kind of a dynamism which is evident there and therefore you know you know the growth rate can really pick up well and there can be a phenomenal transformation in a conceivable period of time in a generation or two there. In other words it's no longer the basket case or the dark continent as it was thought to be earlier. It's portrayed to be thought to be earlier by in the perceptions of the international community that is number one. Number two ensuing from this there is a there is an acute struggle between amongst the big powers and also among the not so big powers the second tier nations Turkey Saudi Arabia Iran and so on even India to some extent. Now this has different ramifications that is one is that the Africans are getting most important from the western point of view they're getting more space to negotiate with the west because there is there is a there is a counterpoint available for them to go to and we've seen it in a number of countries China is playing as a counterpoint. They find it very comfortable also doing that because the point is here is a couple of countries at least and Iran also countries at least which are not dictating terms prescribing anything. They can in other words their internal processes are completely sequestered from the business that is being transacted which is a very comfortable thing for the African elites because all the time the what they have experienced is a kind of a bullying mixed with blackmail that unless they did things in a certain way there will be a there might be a price to pay and the history shows that the west made it a point to you know to to ram it down in the consciousness of the African elites. The second part is this that therefore first ever stopped you know the they are able to negotiate better so putting it differently that sort of old new colonial exploitation is not or rather it is bringing diminishing returns and ultimately if this trend continues China may be a big beneficiary Russia may be a big beneficiary because the kind of image that these two powers have west cannot match because of the history of the national liberation movements there and the colonial alliance and the complete exploitation they had no such history of exploiting exploitation they were not colonial powers and the Africans they've never seen them that way so there is a certain you may call it what Joseph and I would call the soft power is also working in favor of working against the west there then you know there is a lately now there is an added dimension to it because I assess that the outcome of the Ukraine war and all that has happening now in the recent years and a new world order of multiplicity that is taking shape which is very evidently taking shape it's only the timeline that is under discussion now it is inevitable that process there the unlike in the Cold War era the non-aligned movement didn't carry that much weight it had a kind of an influence and an image and all that but the Americans never really took it seriously Russians did but today this majority of countries which have refused to tow the western line in Ukraine and have of course they are leading to voting in a certain way when a resolution comes in the United Nations General Assembly that's a different matter because you know they're all extremely vulnerable still that threshold has not been reached for them to what you're saying is that in the sanctions not a single African country has joined the sanctions yes and therefore you know not only not only on the sanctions the whole perception in the global south is that what is happening today is of momentous consequence also for them that big or small all countries will have a say in the global governance and no country can prescribe your way of life you can pursue your own developmental strategies you see these are things which have searched to the top today in the rhetoric that you hear from Russia and China now this has a very big resonance in the African continent surely so how does it translate geopolitically numbers count and now these countries if they take this line already despite all the bravado the western narrative is lost as a result of it you know it is turned out to be west versus the non-west you know west versus the rest the rest so you see something has to be done like in the north you people will say kuch karna hai you know that is that is this effort of this democracy summit as I see it will it work I doubt if it will work the first one didn't the first one didn't have any residence yeah it will not work because the there is a wrong notion that the Africans can be taken for granted and they are they can be shepherded into corridors you know by an assertive mentor that's not really so it's actually their elite is politically very savvy they understand it they are weak and therefore often they are not in a position to assert but it doesn't mean that they don't understand it and if an option develops for them and if a space is created for them to operate their strategic autonomy you may see a phenomenal difference in the situation in a very conceivable future you know in a matter of next five years you know so you know that actually makes an enormous amount of sense for two specific reasons which are good to add to what you are saying one is the French had played a major role in Africa particularly what is known as francophone Africa but it extended to the ex-Belgian colonies also because France French was the major language there now interestingly it's clear that francophone Africa is moving away from France and Macron when he came to Congo and gave speeches tried to dress down the journalists and the leaders of Congo he got a very harsh reaction both from the journalists as well as from the Congo leadership so that that old French tutelage that we believe you is not working and also on the matter of both army and finance there seems to have there seems to be a clear divergence now from France there the growth of Russia even to the extent of now Prigogin and his troops coming in in some of the places that is an entirely different phenomenon Wachtner is an entirely different phenomenon I'm saying that we're going away from France because French military leadership is slowly being taken over by the United States now they're directly now in various places which earlier they were actually working with the French the Americans so French weakening seems to have also led to America starting itself openly but also delegitimizing the West that you are talking about you see the there is a there is a de facto division of labor between Russia and China in in Africa if you look at it closely what can the Chinese do there Chinese are able to put a lot of money on the table in a way that Western countries are not going to be it's not going to be possible for them to match that you know it has never happened before so the earlier thing was aid is imperialism you know this you you give dole outs and then you know you cultivate elites and you know you orchestrate the political structure power structure and you then get into the real business of exploiting the country for its resources and transfer the wealth to European continent this is this is the pattern there but now you know China is putting money on the table you have high-speed trains coming various other types of infrastructural developments rapidly developing there and this is visible to see yes in in you know year to year you can see the change is taking place so best defining it very hard that is one thing and the second thing is China is very aggressive trader and it is a number one trader now in that region and it is able to purchase from create purchasing power in the African countries by purchasing a lot of stuff from these countries which generates money purchasing power they can do so they are they are really seeing their their liquidity problem their resources you know they are not on a shoestring budget like that if it continues like this that China is buying a lot from these places that is the second one and then the third one is the kind of development that inevitably takes place whether it is in mining whether it is in you know agricultural field to maybe to export to China you know buy bag arrangements so on but a number of a lot of activities are taking place the Europeans you know after the liberation struggle and the decolonization they never really rolled up they just packed and left they never really rolled up their sleeves and got into it the way the Chinese are doing now that is there but China is not getting involved in the politics is not waiting its toes in security issues front it closely monitors everything and it is extremely is very well abreast of events that is taking place you can see their reactions you know that they understand the African situation very well but then China has a long history even you remember Chauhanlai is a famous remark you know there so he said they have a long history of paying enormous attention to Africa but that part is Russia's can compliment if China alone were there in the situation what I'm trying to say this division of labor when I mentioned it it is working de facto China could have been ousted because they could have outmaneuvered China by bringing about coups and political assassinations and getting the Chinese being thrown out of that places but that's not happening because politically Russians are moving in a way and with their immense soft power engaging the African elites and this Putin's initiative to have the Africa summit the first one of the roaring success it was a brilliant initiative because it brought together in fact elites a number of them who were products even of Patrice Lumumba University you know these are the old boys you know who were there and they are coming in national liberation struggle's inheritance and they they were they didn't have to be encouraged to talk on those lines that the Russians are talking they were enthused you know in fact they were accelerated that you know this is the kind of environment that today is existing in Moscow just one little additional fact of Cuba Cuba participated in liberation struggles as you know against South Africa for instance and of course the battles were Kalashnikovs really came into their own in Africa fighting liberation struggles apart from Vietnam and so on so all that history very much fresh in Africa to go and talk to the African people see the Russians are not in the business of sending their armies out or establishing bases like this absolutely they have to husband their resources and the unlike in the earlier time in the Soviet era the Russians are very careful about getting overstretched abroad so now we come to this Wagner phenomenon they have studied the situation and they know that a very judicious through a judicious exercise of power the security situations can be handled and what the western military contingents have been doing is actually to use the presence as an instrument a tool to manipulate but on the other hand the security situation can be contained in a certain way and the African elites see that they see the effectiveness of the Wagner group but then the Russians are also not like the Soviets quite that in the downstream Wagner also gets down to business like for example it gives security protection to economic projects in volatile areas extremely volatile areas so mining activities and such activities diamond mines and so on we highly lucrative economic activities are possible to be sustained the West has really speaking no answer to this you see therefore you know this I am not very sanguine that the Africans will bite into this business of democracy if it were democracy then South Africa should have been their closest friend now South Africa is really taking legally to see that whether notwithstanding the fact that they would like that they are members of the I see I see see they are not in a mode to arrest Putin if he lands up there for the brick summit they are trying for ways and means to find how it is possible now so you see if it is democracy the problem then you know why not deal with South Africa and then Lavrov when there it was a huge success Lavrov's visit and the South African foreign minister echoed all the things that the Russians love to hear from them you know so this is not about democracy Zambia they are they got a toe hole there because in the last election a new leadership came which was more pro-western so they are only using that as the ground but for this objective reality is being such as he explained I don't think this African this American enterprise this Biden's enterprise democracy enterprise will travel far enough it won't fly it didn't in the first one as well even then it was considered to be a flop shirt this doesn't seem to have even attracted much attention in the western media itself I think we have covered a lot of ground of course it opens up more grounds maybe we'll have to discuss what happens to non-alignment that existed then because in Krumah was one of the proponents major proponents of that and the African continent continent itself still resonates with a lot of that pan-African part of the agenda that he had on others had so we'll come back to this with you again when we meet in our continuing episodes of false lines we're going to wind this up here thank you very much for being with us covering a really large ground and also placing it in the context within which these developments at VCR happening these developments are at the moment set of episodes as it were but to look at the larger picture I think that's the important part this is all the time we have in news click for false lines today do keep watching news click and also look at our false lines show