 Hey everyone, this is Dan with another episode of my Moderna and BioNTech videos. In the last three months, both Moderna and BioNTech have dropped more than 50% from the all-time highs. Is it time to stop investing in these two companies? I've been following the news related to both companies and have been swing trading the stocks. I'm also holding some shares that I bought earlier this year. I believe the two companies will recover from their current levels, although I'm revising my price target because of some recent development. Let's get into the detail. First of all, let's look at the price chart. This is a daily chart for the last six months. The candle state chart is Moderna. The yellow line here is BioNTech. The blue line here is QQQ, representing the movement of NASDAQ 100 and the purple line here is SPY, representing the movement of S&P 500. As we can see in the last six months, SPY and QQQ went up by about 20% and BioNTech also after going up and then dropping 51% from its all-time high, registered an increase of also about 20% during the six month period. Whereas Moderna went up, dropped down by about 53% from the all-time high and ended up being 49% so higher compared to six months ago. Therefore, Moderna and BioNTech are comparing just about as good or a little bit better than the broad market. However, the recent drop, understandably, has been very concerning. If you look at the chart, there are a couple of very significant drops. First of all, around the beginning of October, this drop here was because of the announcement of the COVID pill produced by Merck, and we'll talk a little bit more about that. And then there's another drop here is announcement of the COVID pill developed by Pfizer. And then there's a little bump up here for BioNTech. That's because FDA approved BioNTech for children between the ages of 5 and 11. And Moderna also got a little boost because of that because a lot of people consider the two companies to be very similar. Let's look at the recent developments. On November 5th, Pfizer announced that they have successfully tested the anti-COVID pill and found it to be 89% in fact in high-risk cases. And then on November 5th, Merck announced that they develop a COVID pill. It's 50% effective against death or hospitalization, and the price is expected to be about $700 per treatment. In the meanwhile, on October 4th, the EU regulator approved the Pfizer vaccine booster shot for people who are 18 years of age and older. On October 29th, FDA approved the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine for children between ages 5 to 11, which is a very positive news for Pfizer. And then in the meanwhile, FDA has delayed the decision on approving Moderna vaccine for children between the ages of 12 and 17. Remember this particular age group already got approval for the BioNTech vaccine. Therefore, BioNTech is leading in this age group compared to Moderna. Then we had quarterly earnings announcements from Moderna on November 4th and BioNTech from November 9th. We'll talk about those earnings reports in the next few minutes. Overall, I believe Moderna and BioNTech will recover from the current levels primarily because it's just a matter of how soon before the booster shots are needed by all adults and even by some of the children. And Pfizer at this point is ready to submit more data to convince the FDA that the booster shots are ready for all adults as well as for adolescents. And the COVID treatment at this point from Merck, Regeneron, and Eli Lilly, as well as Pfizer, I do not think they will compete with mRNA vaccines from Moderna and BioNTech. In light of all these new developments, let's look at the valuation of the two companies. This is a pertinent piece of news regarding the price projection for Moderna. On October 8th, Moderna announced that they would be delivering one billion doses of COVID vaccine to low-income countries in 2022. And that's part of the two to three billion doses the company would deliver for 2022. That's a very important projection number, two to three billion doses. If you look at the Moderna product pipeline, of course, they have one product in commercial phase, which is the COVID vaccine. And they have six products in phase two, particularly the CMV vaccines almost ready for phase three and have 10 products in phase one and 13 in preclinical development. Looks like they have a fairly strong pipeline that will help secure steady stream of income for the company in the next few years. That's not a one vaccine company or one product company. Another piece of important information, that's from the presentation done by Moderna management when they announced the quarterly earnings a few days ago. A very critical piece of information here is that the management from Moderna predicted that they expected sales ranging between 15 to 18 billion dollars for the entire year of 2021. That average out to be 16.5 billion dollars of sales for 2021. And I'll be using that figure in my calculation in the next few seconds. Also Moderna management in the same investor presentation mentioned that they expected the sales for 2022 to be 17 to 22 billion dollars. And I average these two numbers to be 19.5 billion dollars. So let's remember these two numbers, 16.5 revenue for 2021 and 19.5 for 2022. And here it is. What I did was that I plug in the 16.5 for 2021 and 19.5 for 2022, assuming the net margin of 50%, but in fact their 12 month trailing performance up until the third quarter of 2021 from Moderna, net margin is 59.7%. Therefore, the 50% net margin assumption is very conservative. And I also assume a low PE ratio of 12.4. At this point, the trailing PE ratio is more like 14 and some of the other pharmaceutical companies have PE ratios as high as 24 and 29. And therefore 12.4 PE is a very conservative assumption as well. Using these assumptions and the revenue projections from management, I arrived at the estimated stock price of $253 by the end of 2021 and $300 for 2022 and also $300 for 2023. With this range, I predict a price of $270 by the end of January 2022. And that's within about two, two and a half months. And $300 a year from now by the end of November 2022. Let's look at BioNTech. First of all, let's look at their product pipeline. They have one product in commercial phase, which is a COVID vaccine, of course, and they have four products in phase two related to cancer therapies and 12 products in phase one and 10 in clinical development. Their pipeline is fairly strong also. Again, it'll ensure steady stream of income for BioNTech in the next few years. This is for the management presentation from a few days ago, BioNTech mentioned that their revenues for 2021 will be between 16 billion to 17 billion euros. And if you average that, and that translates to $19.4 billion US dollars for 2021. And I will be using that figure in my stock valuation. Here it is. I put in a $19.4 billion in 2021. And I anticipate a slight increase for 2022 to $19.5 billion. Again, that's a very conservative assumption. Also assuming that margin of 50% like Moderna and the P ratio of 12.4%, similar to what I'd assume from Moderna. And with these figures, I arrive at the stock prices of $496 and $498 for the year 2021, 2022, and 2023. From this range, I forecast that the price will reach $300 by the end of January 2022 and it'll reach $400 by the end of November 2022, which is a year from now. Let's see what the analysts have been saying about Moderna and BioNTech. Here, I'm comparing the analysts ratings from October 24th when I published my last video to today, which is November 9th. From Moderna, the price went from $326 to $236, quite a substantial drop because of the reasons we just talked about. And my target currently is set at $270 by the end of November and $300 a year from now. No business maintaining its whole rating, but downgraded the company a little bit from 2.6 to 2.7 out of 5, the smaller, the number, the better. And the high rating remains the same at 490. Average rating went down from 340 to 304. Low target went up a little bit from 85 to 86. Lewis Nivellier maintains his overall A rating with a strong buy to ranks.com, maintaining its whole rating and keeps the same high target of 468, but lower the average target from 366 to 310 and lower the low target from 115 to 86. CN Money maintains its buy rating and actually increased the high target from 468 to 475, but decreased the median target from 375 to 325 and increased the low target a little bit from 85 to 86. For BioNTech, the price went from 278 to 26. My target is $300 by the end of January 2022 and $400 a year from now. Yahoo Business maintain its whole rating at 2.7. The high target went up a little bit actually from 449 to 450. Average target went down slightly from 327 to 325. Low target remains the same at 153. Lewis Nivellier actually downgraded BioNTech a little bit from overall A rating to B, which is still a buy, quantitative rating went from A to B. TipRanks.com maintain its buy high average and low ratings. CN Money maintain its whole rating and decreased the high target a little bit from 444 to 441 and increased the median target a little bit from 330 to 339 and increased the low target just by a dollar from 150 to 151. Overall, we can see that we have quite a bit of price downgrades for Moderna and for BioNTech. Everything is pretty much the same. What are my strategies? I have been holding Moderna and BioNTech shares for the long term and I've been swing trading the rest of the shares. In the last month or so, I've been selling some Moderna and BioNTech shares and recently as of November 8th, I bought back some BioNTech shares primarily based on my analyses here. In general, I will sell when the price fails to get support from a major support level or whenever it's new developed and I'll buy when the price bounces back from a major support level or when the price breaks above a major resistance level or when positive news develop and I'll certainly be mindful of the broad market looks like the market might have a bit of pullback in the next few days because the market has been pretty high recently and therefore Moderna and BioNTech will likely go down with the market until the market starts to recover and I will update my subscribers by wearing my Twitter messages. At this point, I'd like to remind you to subscribe to my Twitter account, which is DanMarketL in addition to subscribing to my YouTube channel. For example, on October 20th, I said that I just bought more BioNTech shares because it seems to be recovering from the price drop and BioNTech might have the data ready for FDA to review for the booster shot for all adults. And then on October 26th, when the price started to drop again, I sold the shares that I bought on October 20th for a small profit. If you like what you've seen so far, I'd like to suggest that you click the like, subscribe and notification button so that you'll be notified when I publish my next video and it will also encourage me to produce more videos like this in the future. As usual, I very much appreciate your comments, questions and suggestions. I'd like to remind you that I'm not a financial advisor. I share my stock trading strategies and analyses for educational purpose only. If you want to buy or sell stocks, you should make your own decisions and you should definitely consult with your financial advisors before you do so. This about wraps up my video for now. I will chat with you again in the next few days. In the meanwhile, I'd like to wish you the very best of luck with your financial investment.