 To our man Steve Steve Rhodes as we do each and every Monday at 20 past the hour and don't forget folks Steve has an outstanding show here every trading day one to two East and stand the time also is a great newsletter mastering Probability now it's very easy to get mastering probability folks as you come over to our website at TFNN You're gonna see newsletters. You get newsletters. You're gonna that master of probability right on the right-hand side You just hit that subscribe button. You can get mastering probability for one month for $149 You get it for six months of 695, which is the savings of a hundred of $199 or 22% you can get it for a year for 1195, which is the savings of $593 or 33% Do yourself and give yourself a new year's present folks. Okay, go over check it out You're gonna love it if for some reason it doesn't work in 30 days you get your money back So you have everything to win zero to lose Steve Rhodes. Let's go on Well, I think you forgot to say and because of Santa Tom They can actually get those newsletters for less if they take advantage of the new tiger doll That's right folks and right on the front about that tell about that yeah on the front page folks There's no doubt. We have the tiger doll a sale it just started this morning and it only goes for 12 days So check it out right in the front page because it's a way that you can save 10 20 up to 40% this time You know, so exactly it's it's it's a good value. It's a great value Yeah, so we have to say thank you to you, you know Santa Claus And you arrive again and what tough in in just a 10 days basically I know there 11 days I you know, we're in week 50 From from our trading stamp. Isn't that crazy? Yeah, I know absolutely absolutely So I thought what we would do here is just start by taking a look at our annual seasonal cycle Which would suggest that the set now the Santa Claus rally a lot of folks take a look at Santa Claus rally and look at the time period from Christmas Eve on Really the Santa Claus rally begins in October. I mean you've got to make all those toys Yeah, and where they really rally typically if we take a look at the last 80 some odd years out here We see that the Dow this is what we're looking at here The Dow typically forms a bottom in October It also forms a bottom towards the first week of January moves lower into the end of January moves higher into May So we'll take a look at these cycles and in fact if we take a look at this calendar year 2021 we'll see that the seasonal cycle dates have been working really relatively well And so they're identified here at the lows or the bottoms Are shown with the green arrows the tops with the red arrows out there So the seasonal cycle as those key turn dates the end of January as I mentioned mid May Followed by a June bottom then another top in mid July and then the final bottom in in the month of October So the month of December also Tom I don't know if you knew this but it has the highest probability of closing above November's close now This is that wow. Yeah, this is data going back to January of 1970 and it just compares Yeah clothes versus clothes. I don't want people to overthink this It's just the probability of one month closing above the prior month in the month of December has got that Largest bias and the reason why I want to make that statement is that as long as a Dow closed above 34 483 And we're pretty well above that that will fulfill that outcome that we took a look at so it's about Closed versus closed not about taking out the high of November Okay, so it's a little nuance out there But kind of like your little nuance about the a to b equal CD pattern out here And I don't want people to misinterpret this so the Dow will fulfill that normal probability As long as it closed above 34 483 and again, that's just simply based upon this probability table of going back to January of 1970 now One reason to anticipate so this is kind of you and I kind of talking about hey What the market do on Friday is that an a to b equal CD to the upside which would then suggest taking out the highs That we've seen I know right. Yeah, but okay, and that's absolutely possibility still in there And it would fit along that seasonal cycle However, one reason to anticipate that the high may be in is and we're taking a look at the Dow here Now this is the daily time frame is the Dow formed a TD 9 topping pattern back on November 8th And this is bar number 8 that is out here This is a pattern Tom, but I teach subscribers It is really a great pattern helps us to identify key levels of breakout support breakdown resistance out there And so another reason for folks to go ahead and at least subscribe for for a 30-day time period So we have a valid top inside of the a Dow that get formed on November the 8th And that led to also a TD 9 count bottom was bar number 9 So when tops or bottoms form on these pattern Tom, it must be on bars 8 9 or the bar following 9 So there's three bars to really pay attention to here We'll get take a look at the Dow the top of TD 9 count top the bottom a TD 9 count bottom And we can see that price made its way up to this resistance level 35 952 63 based upon utilizing this indicator this tool that is where the breakdown began There was a slight close above it on Friday I require two closes above resistance or two closes below support to give say a real Something other than a a one-hit wonder out there So we've got those daily top and bottom signals in place And when we take a look at each of the four core cash index charts We can see that the S&P the Nasdaq each of these so the S&P's got it What I refer to as a rogement and indicator top both the S&P in the Nasdaq 100 Another pattern that I teach subscribers in the videos that come with the newsletter subscribership So we've got those tops We already talked about the TD 9 count top on the Dow Jones and the Russell 2000 as we like to refer to as a sell The d-point out there also had wave number seven as part of Basel Chapman So there's valid tops for the core indices that we trade out here the Dow the S&P the Nasdaq in the Russell 2000 Therefore we should anticipate that the top may be in and that the Dow charts Show us really the reason to respect this because of these TD 9 counts now watch this This Tom is a annual chart for the Dow And if we take a look at this we are now in the bar following bar number nine on a annual basis Wow For TD 9 count that's crazy man the top or bottom of this pattern Yeah, it occurs on bars eight nine of the bar following nine now The cool thing about this pattern is whatever this year's high ends of being if we close above it on a yearly basis It tells about a strong momentum move to the upside But right now we really need to respect these TD 9 counts and the daily charts really showed us that now if we take a look at The 2000 top I know it says 200 top but if we take a look at the 2000 top It was bar number eight that actually formed that pattern and then we had a decline for a three-year time period If we look at all of our core cash indices out here between the Dow the S&P Nasdaq This is on the annual basis out of the Russell which is so nice. Yeah, there are a lot of TD 9 count tops Yeah, that are in play right now So we even doesn't matter whether our highs for this year get taken out or not This is a bigger picture in its real bigger picture for us to really pay attention because if this is a major top And you and I have talked about this before this this chart here goes back to 1926 Yeah, and take a look at an anal base when there's major tops it form We usually see declines for two to four years out here And those are what these red numbers and these arrows on this chart are showing us so It's gonna be it's you know, so we may take out the highs this year I'm leaning more towards the fact that we don't and that the top for the market may be in and we'll have to take a look at Critical support levels and I show those to subscribers as well and maybe on the next update next week You know, we'll take a look at those as well out here But there's the potential that we're in store for some kind of major top in a decline Maybe into 2023 sometime you're gonna love it man and ace to see so out. Let me ask you So I got this month going so let's say when we get into January We know we're either gonna have a top but if we guess if we back down then on that month That is going to be the beginning of a confirmation for that TD 9 top, right? It will okay, but you like too much. No, I understand that because yes, that's cool though That means by February well January February. Yeah, that's cool. Oh man either way right, right? It won't be able to take a look at daily and weekly and monthly key levels of support when those things start failing Tom Right, that's really the confirmation right of the monthly CS Yeah, and folks it really easy to get his newsletter all this is a newsletter folks come over the TFN You're going to newsletters you hit mastering probability. Thanks, man. You bet. Take care stay right there folks come right back Are you having fun treating them?