 and they just threw the baby out the bathwater panic at the open down 850 points and then they rallied the market. Is this going to be some sort of scenario? Well, if this is going to be a scenario and right now the Q's. Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the access to trader.com. Nightly update, hope everybody is doing well. So, you know, here we are. I mean, basically the narrative hasn't changed. We talked about yesterday, there was a very uninterested, if you watched the video last night for four and a half, five hours, nothing was going on. And that Bollinger Band that we spoke about last night in the video, you know, sporked a little short covering rally into the close, but we talk about it all the time. If you look at the action ever since we broke down through 50 day moving average on January the third for the first time, you'll notice that again, 75% of all the moves in the last, since the year started has been through downside action and any time that we've seen any type of move below the 50 day moving average going into supply, two things have happened. Number one, if they did rally, they got stuffed into supply. And number two, they never took out the previous day's high. So even though yesterday we had a pretty impressive, and we talked about that last night in the video, pretty impressive rally into the close. The one thing that notably didn't happen was we never took out the previous day's high. And that's a very, very important basic thing in the most basic technical analysis. You have for any stock to go higher, any ETF, any index, it needs to take out the previous day's high, right? And build above that previous day's high, or if the market is gonna go lower, it needs to take out the previous day's low and build lower. So again, the fact that we are spending now one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, 11 trading days, right? So it's almost three weeks, 11 trading days below the 50 day moving average. We talked about it last night. Yeah, was there a possibility we had a dead cat bounce today? Yeah, okay, whatever. But again, the overall sentiment was still to the downside. And we talked about that 317 level was gonna be a very, very important part of what we're seeing here for at least the future. And today's sell-off was extreme, was very violent, was extreme. You had some big players reporting earnings after the close, we'll get to that in a second. But we closed right at the 317 level. And normally when you're a technician, you turn around and you say, well, tomorrow's gonna be a very, very important level. Well, it kind of is, but it's gonna be a little bit different now because now you have Microsoft coming out with earnings after the close, right? Stock is down, not a lot. Stock is down another four or five points after the close. Google was kind of a big one that's really taking things apart down 250 points for the day. And now when you look at the cues, we're not having the conversation anymore at 317. Let's see what happens if they defend. Now we're having the conversation here at 312. And now all the technology stocks that got pretty beat down today and have been pretty much beat down since January, they're continuing the sell-off, right? If you have another five points on the cues, you're going to have, you can have more technical damage. So for example, Tesla got crushed it. And we'll talk about the pivots in a second. Tesla got crushed it. The stock was down 121 points. It's down another 15 points after the close. You look at Amazon today, right? Amazon got hit for 133 points. And the stock is getting massacred again after the close as well. Same thing with Netflix, NVIDIA, and everything that broke down. And I think now a lot of the new traders that got into this business in the last three to five years, now you're starting to kind of figure out with all these old farts, right? All these old farts have been talking about for years and years and years. It's cool. Everybody loves a bull market, right? And a bull market is something that every trader, no matter how long they've been trading, eventually will experience and it's euphoria. But at the same time is, and I've always maintained this fact, unless you've been in this business for a very long time and experienced a bull market, experienced a bear market, well now experienced a pandemic, right? And a mortgage crisis, everything in between, you can't really appreciate the fruits of your labor until you've kind of run through the ringer. And these are facts, right? These are extreme facts. And a lot of traders will never value of what's going on in their really, really bull happy times until we go through on something like this. And I've always maintained that the bull market is the fruits of your labor, right? That's the cherry on top. You make your foundation in a bear cycle. Call this what you want, bear market, bear cycle, bear scenario. Call it whatever you'd like. You know, potato, potato, it doesn't make a difference. But the point is the bull market is always going to be that cherry on top, the frosting, okay? On what you've set your foundation for when things got hard. And the most important part is when you have a market this decisive and this aggressive, of course you're going to have some updates. We've been talking about that nonstop for the three weeks. We've been underneath the 50 day moving average, but your job is to identify the sentiment. And if you're not trading both sides of the market, primarily especially on the short side of where the market is giving some pretty aggressive pulls, it's very, very tough to kind of navigate this tape. Because again, we don't know how long this is going to last, right? I've seen bull markets that last for six, seven years, but I've seen two or three different bear markets that lasted for two, three years. This is only what month for? We're in March. So the question is, again, if you are serious about this business and you want to do this for more than a trade or more than a week or more than a year, you have to at some point turn around and say, how much effort am I really putting into getting the development that I need? And again, it has nothing to do with me. You could be trading crypto, you could be trading forex, minis, whatever the case may be. But at some point you have to turn around and say, am I using every aspect of my potential? Am I using everything, every tool in my disposal to put myself in a situation that I'm prepared for the bull market, right? I'm prepared for the bear market, I'm prepared for the distribution market. I'm prepared for everything that the market throws at me so I could actually act as if I am a professional trader instead of somebody buying stock in a bull market, banging my chest how everything is great, right? The shit is not sweet all the time, right? It's not the day at the beach, it's not roses. And again, unless you went through what every trader has gone through for the last 25, 30 years that you've heard of, of met or whatever the case may be, you really can't appreciate the good times because you think it's normal until you went through and gravitated through the bad times to build your character, to build your foundation, to build your process, and to kind of mold you into the trader that you wanna be 10, 15, 20 years down the line. So yes, I get it. A lot of you guys have never seen a bear market, right? Have never seen a bear scenario. It's something new to you. It's scary because you've never seen it. It's like driving a car the first time when you're 16 years old. The first time you got behind a wheel, it's scary. It's terrifying. Merging onto the highway. What are you crazy? There's no way I can merge into the highway. Now, when you're 45, 47, 53, 62 years old, you're driving on the highway. You're not even paying attention to the road because it's normal. First time it's scary, eventually it becomes normal. And this is, again, what the journey is. It's scary at first. It becomes normal as putting on socks, washing your face and brushing your teeth, but the most important point is you have to be prepared and not to get caught off guard with things that you've only heard of, but didn't put in the effort to put yourself in a situation that you were protected so you can not only survive a scenario like this, but put yourself in a position that you can thrive. And again, like I've said all the time, it is new, it is scary, but you know what? It's going to get easier in time. And you have to use this type of market, this type of experience that said, hey, I finally put this under my belt, right? This is my experience level. This is I'm learning. So next time around, and it could be five years from now, 15 years down the line, you're experienced this. So you already know what to do. So you're not taken off guard, and that's the most important part. How long the cell cycle is gonna last? We don't know, right? Tomorrow I think if the bulls are going to be anywhere, anywhere of striking distance for a bounce, this gap down has to be bought, right? And if you guys remember that last really aggressive panic gap down that was bought, it was right here. You guys remember this? This is where the Ukraine got invaded, right? That was this candle. That was the same thing that we had this really aggressive bottom channel, right? And this is kind of what we talk about having a reference point, right? So if you guys remember, we had that day, it put in a low of 318, right? And that day, and that day, for example, it started bouncing, okay? It started bouncing because we had the news that we were waiting for, we finally got the invasion and they just threw the baby out the bathwater panic at the open down 850 points and then they rallied the market. Is this going to be some sort of scenario? Well, if this is gonna be a scenario and right now the cues are trading roughly 312 after the close, if that's gonna be the same type of scenario, again, we're only speculating because we're only trying to get prepared for it. What's gonna have to happen is if we go from 312 and we reclaim 317, then yes, I do believe this will be kind of one of those throw the baby out with a bathwater type of bounces. But again, there's no guarantees, but if you don't at least play devil's advocate, don't prepare for it, then you're probably gonna sit there idle missing out on a both case scenario. So going into tomorrow, let's see how the market opens up, a lot of you guys, we are short, I mean, we've been short buys now for three weeks or so, ever since we closed below the 50 day moving average. Again, some really aggressive moves today. We talked about Tesla last night, look that nobody in their right mind expected 135 point move today, nobody. You know, I knew we talked about this tight range. It was a good trade, it could have been a phenomenal trade, but again, who in their right mind is saying to themselves, well, this channel is gonna break, right? 1009 upside, 973 downside channels are getting tight, something needs to give, right? So Tesla finally breaks down below this 973 channel. We've been talking about this thing. And again, how can you possibly be prepared for a 134 point move, right? Absolutely impossible, but again, I know some of you guys are still writing it down. I got out way too early, but boy, oh boy, I was happy then, I can't imagine what would have been if I would have still happened, but boy, oh boy, this is a phenomenal move. Congratulations for all you guys. They were pounding this thing. When this thing was at 920, 930, they were pounding the 850 weeklies. And after the close, look at Tesla right now trading 860, man, man, oh man, boy, they definitely got paid there. Netflix continues to get hammered. Yesterday was the big pivot here, 210 if it builds below, can flush. It's coming for the 200 puts. It confirmed today, 204 really nice move. New stock is trading 194 after the close. This thing never triggered, this thing never triggered. And I go, sweet move, 955 on deck. No, 855 on deck now, it's crazy, absolutely crazy. If all you guys are still holding a runner, absolutely congratulations, beautiful move on Netflix. Where's my ISRG? Did I not put an ISRG? I thought I did. Am I going crazy? Where am I? Did I not put ISRG? We've been short ISRG the whole day. For some reason I don't see ISRG. Why am I not seeing it? I don't know. Anyway, ISRG finally cracked. I thought it was on there, I could be wrong. ISRG finally cracked. We've been talking about this for a couple of days. Finally broke down short from the 250 area. This thing looks like it's gonna go lower, trading down to the 240 ones after the close. But more important point is again, going into tomorrow's session is, see how the bulls react, right? See how the bulls react from the bottom of the range. If at some point we start putting in higher highs throughout the morning and they start reclaiming the bottom of this range, right? If they start reclaiming the bottom of this range here, again, so let's see if they can reclaim the 317 back for a pretty aggressive dead cat bounce. If not, again, the sell cycle continues. The most important part is Microsoft's getting hit after the close. You got Google getting destroyed after the close, Texas Instruments getting, Texas Instruments getting destroyed after the close. You got Juniper getting hit after the close. Not a pretty picture. Even the only one that survived, again, hella high water, Chipotle and the cockroaches. If there's a nuclear bomb, nuclear anything, the only two things are gonna survive are those damn cockroaches and those damn burritos. Tomorrow, another bit busy session for earnings. You got, let me see what we got. Let me see what we got. Tomorrow we got, you got Boeing, right? You got Boeing, you got Facebook, you got PayPal, you got Qualcomm, Pinterest, TDOC, Spotify, a lot of stuff going on Las Vegas stands and the next day you got Apple, Amazon, Twitter and everything else in between. So crazy market. Again, it's very scary the first time around. Not so much as you get, as time goes by. The most important thing guys, remember everybody's gone through it. Everybody will go through it after you and way after you, after that generation, after generation, the most important part is don't get frustrated, don't get scared, don't get nervous, it's part of the cycle, it's part of your development and eventually it'll be part of your everyday routine. Guys, God bless, wish you all the best and I will see you all tomorrow.