 Okay, very good morning to you. It is Tuesday 24th November. Hope you're doing well. A really interesting night actually in the overnight session and also late on Wall Street because we had a relatively flat to minor positive close, but we've continued to move higher in the overnight Asia-Pacific session on the back of a number of things. Obviously yesterday we had another positive vaccine update from AstraZeneca. We've also had a latest Wall Street Journal source report saying that it's looking more likely and not that the president-elect Biden is going to choose Janet Yellen, the former Fed chair as the Treasury Secretary when he comes in. And not only that, the US General Services Administration has given the green light for Biden to go ahead with his formal transition for the presidency, of which Donald Trump has called on his agencies to cooperate, although he didn't go as far as a formal concession. The fact that he is willing to cooperate and now the button's being pressed more formally for a transition to happen has eliminated one of the major kind of barriers of uncertainty in the market. That in combination as well with that really excellent PMI data we had out of the US and things are performing really well this morning. So having a look at the charts and how things reside going into the European Open, the down futures on the left here is already up over 250 points. S&P up 27, the NASDAQ up about 67, gold down again overnight. So let's have a cycle through some of these charts and have a look in more detail actually as I discussed. And so let me explain here some of the price movement that we've had and if I just broaden this chart out so you can see the whole kind of context of some of the movement. And that was the peak on the top left hand corner of my chart of the Pfizer spike that we had going back on the 9th of the month. And an interesting trend line actually encapsulating the high after price movement and this descending kind of trend line from the 16th, the 18th. And then we had a close retest of it in the overnight Asia possession and eventually break through it to then find some support at the level. And so that in combination with around the 3600 psychological handle now an area of support that I'd be looking at on the session. So here right on the level you can see tested the trend line break and then comes back to find a bit of support around that same kind of level. Two kind of phased move here. We had a late bid come in going in toward the close on Wall Street on the back of reports about Janet Yellen coming in. I'll talk about her more in a moment. And then we had the kind of break higher as the Asia Pacific region kind of reacted to all of the developments and particularly that comment about the more formal transition then for Trump to Biden. And that kind of really saw things bump up in the overnight session in step with that the correlated kind of movement has been then the perception of kind of general positivity in the short term oil markets also moving higher. Oils liked when there's been positive vaccine use for some time and actually then on the near term price activity. We had the peak from yesterday morning that now acting as a nice kind of line of support now on any potential pullback because we remain pretty bullish up around 50 cents or so already into the European open. You can see here forty three thirty seven was that previous high we broke through it with some of that Asia Pacific move that was seen in general positive sentiment came back to test. And then we just kind of clawed or edged higher ever since and looking on a daily continuation. This probably helps with a little bit of context where a really key level now in oil and just goes to show then the kind of build up that we've had since here. And this candle here was the ninth. And that was when the first Pfizer news came out. And that's kind of accelerated then the perception of demand being backstopped going forward to secure a better recovery given the developments we've had from Pfizer, Moderna, Astra and Eli Lilly and others. That in combination then with overall OPEC plus continuity on the likelihood then at the end of the month in only a week's time or so we're expecting a three to six months roll over on the supply pack side. Oil is looking kind of set up for potentially a move to the upside and a break here which encapsulates that area of lows from the second of March. Prior to then the deep gap down that we saw in the failed OPEC meeting means that oil now if it can get above those late kind of August highs. No reason why we wouldn't go 45 or even higher here for the time being. So technically quite interesting levels to watch there in oil and then with all of this kind of risk on sentiment. There was obviously one asset that got really beaten down yesterday and some excellent activity in the amplifier live room yesterday. Some really great trades across the board really so well done to all of those who are getting involved. But with gold we saw a complete breakdown of price through the breach of quite a key level. So this was that Pfizer move that we had on the ninth and this was yesterday's move here you can see. And we've continued to move down in the Asia Pacific session and they've just carried the baton if you like from the depressed price from yesterday. And now again interesting we've just come up perhaps a little bit of profit taking on those short term shorts. And we've come back up to 1828 which was that initial load that we had yesterday afternoon. It's interesting to see how it reacts here any further recovery on a retracement probably be looking up. And I know it sounds like quite large ranges a $10 move but I'd be looking up at 38 spots 7 as an area if we break through this area here. If we don't then and equities remain positive as we go out and progress through the day. Then be looking for an assault back down to the lows and then onto the S1 in the daily pivots. Interesting to note then that the dollar really got fired up yesterday after the really excellent forecast beating market PMI numbers that came out of the US as you probably saw. But the dollar has kind of faded almost 50% of that bid now and the Dixie's down about one-tenth. So you can see here these major currency FX pairs both Euridora and Cable have reversed about half of that initial selling pressure that came in from yesterday. So that's the overall kind of take on things. Let's have a look at some of the headlines in more detail. And starting off with what's happened here which is the return potentially of Janet Yellen. So the President-elect Joe Biden plans to nominate former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to serve as his Treasury Secretary according to several people familiar with the matter. For me and as per then the reaction that ensued afterwards into markets in the overnight session, I definitely think that she's a positive as far as the equity market is concerned. I wrote down some notes here that I was tweeting when the news came out last night. And basically I can only summarize it as her well-known cautious approach and dovish tendencies would be a significant change from Mnuchin and complimentary then of working in close harmony with the Fed and with this mantra of lower for longer. If any of you were trading over the period of the last several years when she was at the helm of the Fed, she was notoriously erring on the side of being always very cautious and gradual with her approach, very dovish. And that in this environment would be a supportive factor for the equity market. I think she's been touted as one of the frontrunners already, confirmation seemingly that we're heading more, other candidates are dropping away and it's leading more to her. I think it's a supportive thing for markets going forward. On that note of Fed speak and in a similar kind of way remember as we go in towards year end which is only now five or six weeks away, the Federal Reserve Board obviously sees a rotation of some of the regional presidents. Fed's Evans who's not a voter this year will be a voter next year. He said yesterday there's still quite a long way to go for the US economies recovery from the coronavirus adding that he expects rates at the Fed to remain near zero well until perhaps 2024. And that under a kind of combination then with the Treasury Secretary being yelling with that type of mentality would be then supportive in regards to this idea of zero bound rates for the foreseeable future at least. The other thing of course I mentioned briefly was this, you might not have heard of this before the General Services Administration. They've basically triggered then the transition can formally begin now in regards to Biden being the winner of the US election. What was quite surprising overnight that was despite his kind of reluctancy and lack of formal concession, he was tweeting quite a lot overnight. President Trump though did call on his agencies to cooperate and a lot of people have looked at this and thought well that was an unknown as much as I felt quite sure that any legal contest between then Trump trying to overturn certain states in the election ballot I think was just a very far fetched that would actually materialize into anything. There are a couple of people mentioning that they're just liking the fact that it removes just another element of uncertainty from markets to confirm Biden coming in. So they're all the positive things of course we did obviously have not only good US data yesterday in the PMIs we had AstraZeneca and I just wanted to update you a little bit about Astra. There has been quite a lot of analysts commentary about this because I wanted to just drill into this a little bit more. There was an analyst from SVP Lyrink called Geoffrey Porges, I think that's how you pronounce his name. He said yesterday results from a relatively small group of volunteers in the trial were a slight concern for Astra. He also said they wouldn't get US approval based on the lack of diversity among participants. Remember Astra shares did finish down 3.3% but I'll give you my view really of why I think that that occurred. Astra and Oxford University there is who they're collaborating with with this particular venture and I believe that's because Astra don't have a vaccine unit so they're using the know-how from the Oxford guys. They will talk to the US FDA this week about setting up a separate arm of the trial to test the more effective lower dose regime and conceded this could affect the speed of approval in the region. Some other analysts have questioned Astra's efficacy to Pfizer and Moderna that to me is the main real reason why their shares fell yesterday. Particularly speculative traders the reference point is 90-95% which is the benchmark of efficacy that's been set by the likes of Pfizer and Moderna. And of course when this news came out it was more averaging around 70%. Now that I think just locking or latching onto those numbers only I think is a little bit short-sighted. And I say that because if you think about then the whole host of other issues of which Astra addresses that those others do not. Things like cost. I was looking at the costs this morning and a single dose on the Astra side is three to four bucks. Moderna and Pfizer we're talking 50 bucks and obviously this then leads to a lot of the developed or undeveloped countries I should say where this definitely the Astra one is a better more credible solution particularly as well given the refrigeration of the vaccine for its storage and distribution is way more let's say ability to conform to those type of standards in areas which don't have such good infrastructure for example. And then manufacturing obviously Astra big firm has strong distribution networks and then it's not an experimental technology in which they're using which obviously underpins then that Pfizer and Moderna. So the final point I'd say as well is that regulators and many scientists and one of the guys in the amplifier library was chatting about this yesterday. He was kind of comparing it to other known and regular diseases and this is being ratified by some of the press this morning is that in a normal situation. Let's forget that that 1995% efficacy rate ever existed from those other companies regulators and many scientists would be more than happy with a vaccine that was more than 50% effective. It's just that the fact that it comes into context as some of those higher figures that we've had of late. So beyond them that initial knee jerk reaction this is a positive I guess is what I'm trying to say and I think that's now a component of why we're trading like we are in the overnight session. It's not that in isolation but it definitely is not as negative a story as I think that the Astra share price would suggest from yesterday which I think was more a reactionary effect of traders rather than an underlying performance of what I think that share price and Astra's drug in terms of its adoption will be in a period going forward. Moving on talking off covid I don't want to dwell on this too much because obviously things are in a quite a positive state at the moment but it's worth reminding ourselves that covid in the US is still incredibly bad situation at the moment I just read as well that actually some of the airport traffic in America even last weekend front running that then Thanksgiving happening obviously in two days time was actually the highest amount in many of the major locations in America despite the situation at some folding with record breaking numbers of covid it was the highest traffic they've seen since the pandemic begun. So obviously a lot of focus there on the idea that Thanksgiving could actually turn into a super spreader event and this definitely is going to warrant then watching these numbers as we go further forward into kind of early to mid December. One of the things that a CDC model was showing yesterday which a couple of people are talking about is that covid is on track to kill 30,000 more in the US by Christmas. And actually the numbers that they were looking at I think they had it here from a different study from the University of Washington in Seattle they were talking about deaths peaking at around 2,000 just over 2,500 which would be an excessive what we had in the initial first wave outbreak of course. And this is what that kind of a steady step stone approach to the cumulative effect of US deaths would look like going all the way back to the beginning of the actual pandemic in itself. Talking of covid in the UK I'm not sure if you caught then Boris Johnson outlined the details he confirmed England's national lockdown will end next week to be replaced though by a tougher three tiered system of regional restrictions designed to last until spring of next year. Now what he said was well telegraphed in the press so it's not really a market moving thing but let me give you some of the details here. If you wanted to look at the actual individual line by line details of each new tiering system you can just jump on my Twitter account you'll be able to see this full kind of breakdown. But under the new rules for England from December 2nd shops hairdressers gyms will reopen across the country but bars restaurants will be take away only in areas under the Titus restrictions. Now what areas are going to be under those Titus restrictions we're going to find out on Thursday he's going to announce in more detail. One thing to note though on a very top level these latest restrictions are more onerous than the previous don't think that we're just reverting back to the triple tiered system that we adopted over the recent weeks. This is actually different and more stringent across all three levels. It's almost like a light version of what we're in now which is definitely much more stringent than where we were before. Now people in all three tiers for example will be urged to avoid any unnecessary travel. This is even in the lowest tiered and also work from home where possible if they can. Alright quick look at the calendar for today. German iPhone coming out at nine o'clock often a fairly interesting figure companies on the ground. What is their feeling about the current economic situation and their forward looking optimism or pessimism about the the six month horizon. So that's coming out at nine o'clock. We then got Bank of England's Haskell speaking late morning from the US. You've got Richmond Fed manufacturing the conference board consumer confidence reading coming out of three with Feds Bullard who's a non voting member discussing monetary policy changes at four p.m. London. Christine the guard speaks on the virtual round table kicking off at two. So just ahead of the open on the nizy not expecting a great deal from her but something just to be aware of given the context of the expectation of more ECB top up to their pep happening in December. And we're getting quite close to that that time now. So that is it going to leave you with that. So yeah further positive developments to add to the data and the Astro vaccine news. Now we've got Yellen potentially being Treasury Secretary plus the US GSA coming out and confirming Biden. And hence we have this current performance in the overnight Asia session leading into a front foot then for the European Open. Okay guys I'll leave you with that and I will catch you same time tomorrow. Thanks very much.