 Good day, fellow investors. I recently analyzed again 48 stocks that I analyzed on my stock market research platform over the last two years. I looked at their risk and reward, the business yield, and how that fits the current crisis environment. And then when I looked at that, I also made a portfolio strategy, crisis portfolio strategy, that's always the same strategy, but when you have a good strategy, it's good reminding people of it and sticking to it if it works. So in this video, I want to discuss the investing scenarios that we might expect coming forward and then how I plan to set up my portfolio so that I'm prepared for almost everything, so, or anything. So anything that happens, I hope that, and I'm pretty much certain that I will end up well. How well time will tell, but here is my strategy. Let's start by discussing investment scenarios. The key is that nobody knows what will happen. If you just go back three months ago, very little of what's going on, unfortunately now was expected. Similarly, we have no idea what will happen over the next three, six months. It is all projections, it is all scenarios. Perhaps they'll find a drug tomorrow. Some indications are there that there is some things that are helping. Perhaps it hopefully not. It will get worse for a longer time. Nevertheless, as an investor, as a strategist, you need to be ready for anything. And let me first discuss then the scenarios and then go into the portfolios to show you what am I doing to be ready. So the first scenario is unfortunately a bad scenario, big recession, depression, lockdowns, continue for months and months, no trade, really GDPs globally going down, which, okay, that could happen, hopefully not, but it is a scenario we have to keep in mind. Then we have a base scenario, recession, depression, lockdowns continue for a few months, and then things hopefully stabilize and improve. We trade, we travel a little bit, but not as much as before. And then we have a good scenario, things return to normal by this summer and there is, as the temperature goes up and there is huge stimulus. So before starting, let me just introduce you to my portfolio. So I have a lump sum portfolio that is structured and created for my track record measurement. So in five, 10 years, when somebody asks me, Sven, what have you done? Well, there is the lump sum portfolio, the track record for it. And that's the goal that I'm building there. The track record is currently negative, but okay. Started January 2019 with 100,000 euros. That's the lump sum that I invested currently in 91,000, so 9% down. Looking for high return, real assets, relative margin of safety in areas that are overlooked by the market. So people would call it a relatively risky investment, even if there are some margin of safety components there that make it less risky, but okay. It has eight positions now, the one that we discussed here publicly is Gutsprom. So we see it now at 15% of the portfolio. Then there is the model portfolio. I started with 10,000 euro in May, 2018, and we are keeping it fully invested because we are adding 1,000 there per month and I buy something almost every month and I add. And that's also the strategy. It's simple, just add 1,000 per month for the next 18 and a half years, reinvest the dividends and let the portfolio grow. So total added 24,000 plus the 10,000, 34,000, now in 27,000. So we are in negative territory, but okay, lower prices are always better for these kinds of portfolios when you add more money. And then I also have a personal portfolio on top of the 100,000 and the model portfolio. I have my own liquidity money that we decide where to put into real estate, how much it goes, depend on how business goes, where is the money coming from. And I also made one purchase that I shared on my platform with my, let's say personal money. And I think if I have more money, more liquidity and prices stay down as they are now, I'll probably do more purchases over the year. And at the end of the year, the portfolio will look like the model, the lump sum portfolio that I introduced. So same businesses there, just reinvesting a little bit more of the liquidity I have there. Now, let's discuss my strategy with the bad scenario. If there is a big recession, depression and everything around that. So nothing changes there. I'll look into leverage. What's the safest way to leverage my portfolio? No margin calls so that nobody can hunt me back and force me into selling. And this was the strategy all along. This was when I set up the portfolio, the strategy for the lump sum portfolio. So when the returns with low risk reach a very high threshold, 20, 25% long-term from a business perspective, then I'll be looking to add, let's say 25% of the portfolio position or of the whole portfolio on leverage to increase my long-term returns. This allows me to be 80% invested when the situation is normal, like we could have called it in January, 2019, because I know then that I have 20% more to invest if there is a crisis, of that I invested already 15% over the last month and then add another 25, 30% of the portfolio in case of really crazy situations that as we see happen every 10 years, 2009, 2002, 2020 now. So that's the strategy and I'll be staging the leverage investments over 2020 if the bad scenario develops and stocks stay, remain, or go even lower. On the base case scenario, we have a recession, probable depression, but hopefully recession, lockdowns continue for a few months and then things stabilize. My strategy is still to make two purchases until I am 100% invested, I'm not yet 100% invested, reinvest the dividends that will come and look at the leverage for specific positions that hit the return target of 25%, with relatively little risk and portfolio exposure. So my strategy is pretty simple. Stick to what I do. I like those businesses. I compared 48 of those businesses in an Excel sheet and I still like those businesses that I own the most. A few businesses I have to dig deeper and then always compare. But it's pretty simple. This is the strategy that I have had since ever that I will continue to hold forever. So it's just balancing, depending on the price. If there is a really good scenario coming, I'll be lowering down, bringing the cash back up to 20% for those opportunities that always come here and there. Perhaps a little more risk, less risk, et cetera. So good scenario or good environment, 20% cash, waiting for those opportunities, short-term opportunities, arbitrages, whatever comes along. Bad scenario, like relatively bad scenario, like we are now, we go to 100%, really bad scenario. We go to 120% on a secure loan. And now we are talking about leverage, so margins. You have to really see, you have to really be in a situation that nobody can call you on that debt. So whatever happens, you know your structure, you are so well-diversified that you can leverage a bit your positions to increase the long-term return. Don't do crazy things, don't gamble. So the rules of investing are always the same. If you need the money, then don't invest it because it's crazy. And you never know when the returns will come. It's likely that those returns will come, but as we are seeing in 2020 now, those returns are not coming at least in the first three months of 2020. And that also erased all the good returns of 2019. But that's normal, that's investing. Also, strategy is strategy. If you have a good one that works for you and that leads you to your financial goals, just stick to it through thick and thin, especially through thin, and that will lead you a long way. Thank you for watching. If you want to check everything, I do all the research reports and see how that fits your portfolio. Perhaps there is something interesting that I researched that would be a great addition to your portfolio. Simply check my stock market research platform. The link will be in the description below or in the comment section. Let me know if you have any question, you can send me an email. Thank you for watching. Looking forward to comments and I'll see you in the next video. Thank you.