 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network UFC 287 is coming up this weekend some potential Final dances for some of those fighters. We're gonna break that down with Austin swam getting his read on the card for this weekend We'll also talk some baseball later on to get you ready for what should be a fun weekend of sports This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire Joined here as mentioned by Austin swam check him out on Twitter at a swing 3 find his work over at number fire calm and on The number fire daily fantasy podcast meet Austin. Happy UFC weekend to you. How you doing? I am doing very well a place that I have family down in South Beach So they're excited about UFC 287 down in Miami. We got lots of sports coming this weekend Easter weekend So why'd you go you should have brought someone a fan duel to send you there You know, I've considered bribes for like when they have the the world fantasy like football championships and stuff like that I've considered bribing the staff to try to get me to emcee those I typically do but like I want to ensure my spot I don't think that they will take bribes because they are people of integrity. However, I'm not above trying it at least To like finnegan my way there. So maybe next South Beach event We can we can tug on some ears try to get you in there Oh, that'd be that'd be sweet. I definitely miss that weather in Denver We got snow that passed through here still chilly in the 40s. So I would take a trip to South Beach right now I need that that temperature up so that my coarse-sealed homerun props don't do as poorly as I did yesterday I called Freeland apparently an ace and so it was just I agree who knew not me went poorly so What we'll do for today is break down UFC 287 talk to Austin about all that and later on We'll talk about the MLB slide for today as well But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the covering the spread podcast feed If you want some thoughts on the Bristol dirt races both trucks and the cup series those are up in yesterday's show There's a time stamp for that so you can skip beyond the basketball stuff and the basketball hockey Skip over there. Check out Bristol dirt if you want some of that And then also to subscribe on the covering the spread podcast feed If you like what you hear leave us a five star rating and you can find all these shows over on the Fandle YouTube page as well Let's kick things off though Austin and talk about UFC 287 the main event for this weekend is Alex Pereira taking on Israel, Adesanya You know right now Adesanya is minus 146 in the money line to win this event So when you look at this one Austin, what's your break down of this fight? And how do you think see things playing out here? So it you know, it's obviously great fight Alex Perez the first middleweight to ever beat Israel Adesanya So we're excited to see what happens in the rematch. I think some people felt like Pereira got lucky It was a very odd year in 2022 most fifth round title fight finishes ever and typically you do not see those entitle fighters Minding their weapons making sure that they make it to the cards if they're ahead But we saw three of them including this one And I don't really feel like you got lucky because that fight was very very close Especially with the state of mixed martial arts judging in 2023 that fight really could have gone either way Especially when Pereira with this flurry that he ended up winning the fight with would have had the most signature moment of the entire fight And now I'm not surprised to see Adesanya coming back as as a favorite We see this a lot with stars where their money line does get used a little bit as the Adesanya Probably the biggest star in UFC this side of John Jones now that Conor McGregor's kind of faded out of the sport full-time And I really the story of this fight will be adjustments, you know Adesanya's lost three times to Alex Pereira now twice in kickboxing once in mixed martial arts And there's a rumor that Adesanya is probably gonna mix in some wrestling this weekend to try to Avoid what Alex does best but the thing is Adesanya has never been good at that He has just a 14 percent takedown accuracy He's one and only takedown landed was against Pereira in the last fight and he only went one for four on those attempts He's a big strong dude to take down You know Pereira is training and the thing I think about Alex is he only has eight pro MMA fights So he's actually learning a lot between these fights Whereas a veteran like Israel Adesanya well over 10 fights in UFC He kind of is what he is at this point and with I have Izzy Adesanya's expected takedown success below 15 percent In that case I can pretty much project a striking match here And I do think striking CTS rate tells the story Pereira plus 1.6 Izzy Adesanya plus 1.13 historically I think he's just a touch ahead there So I do like Pereira as an underdog and he's a slight favorite according to my stuff So very very very palatable at this number. So right now as you mentioned Pereira's money line is plus 1.16 It sounds like you're expecting this to potentially go the distance. Am I hearing that correctly in the way you were discussing this match? Or what's your read on how Pereira might be able to win this one So there was not a lot of volume not a lot of activity in the last fight neither fighter eclipse 100 significant strikes So there really aren't enough signature moments to expect a big time finish now There's all this conjecture about, you know, maybe Alex has gotten a lot better grappling since he's training with longtime UFC champion global Tushera I tip I do lean that way. I don't really have any value compared to the number is to go the distance The thing about an inside the distance prop if you feel good and you feel strongly about under four and a half rounds in this fight That's significantly favors Pereira. Izzy Adesanya's knockdown rate In middleweight defenses is less than like 0.8 percent. So it's very very small Hasn't really shown that elite power that he did against lower level guys coming into the sport Any and he's also shown historical durability and excellent defense at 58 striking defense So I do tend to lean toward a close fight that goes to the cards But if it stops early, I'll feel much better about Alex Pereira's money line Okay, so Pereira money line plus 1.16 is a bet Austin likes For this headliner here for UFC and that's the one bet we are locking in here Let's open up the rest of the card to you Austin though because we have plenty of other fights here available Looking at money lines on the rest of this card, including the prelims. Where are you seeing value there? So I see value with a guy that I've spotted just about every time that he's fought He's been the underdog in every single fight that he's had in UFC thus far. That is chris curtis he's coming back at plus 108 on fando sportsbook when I checked last night and If I can project a striking match without much interference My data set is really good at predicting that and chris curtis is a guy that helps make that a reality for me 100% takedown defense on 32 attempts face and kelvin gaslam 32% takedown accuracy not a lot of volume there He's not an elite guy out that better guys have tried and failed to get curtis to the ground So I feel very good about a striking match here And if in that case there's just a gulf in striking ability and offense here 15 whole percentage points between these guys as far as striking accuracy is concerned And curtis lands nearly six per minute gas limit just three and a half per minute. So curtis is more active He's more accurate and the issue for me is with curtis is that he's been too willing to fall behind He's he's a guy that thinks I'll get my reads and I'll find the knockout blow What the problem is as you're doing that if you're absorbing too many punches as he's bottom three on this card In strikes absorbed you can lose a decision I would love to see him reverse that trend here because he's got every reason to with a four inch reach advantage I mentioned he's more accurate some key trends I'm looking at here curtis is five and one in ufc affiliated appearances as an underdog And he's two in own ufc when he has a reach advantage like this one So I think he leads the dance and I do think he wins a striking match here against gasoline You mentioned the money line was plus 108. It is still right there at fandula sports book for chris curtis versus kelvin gaslam That is on the prelim card Over on the fandula sports book if you're looking for the navigation there Curtis plus one away to the money line any other money lines you like here for saturday austin So I will flip over to the main card and it is a fight that is absolutely a dynamic we see in ufc a lot We have young prospect rising Maybe fallen star descending who ends up winning out when those two clash I like rob plant who is the quote-unquote descending star here. He's coming back around plus 150 Uh, there's this card. It has a lot of prospects that are lee adrian yan yas is one of those but When he font's been a top 10 guy for years and he is one of my data's favorite fighters And it kind of shows the flaws of doing this with just data because rob font has a plus 2.43 striking success rate It's top three on this card. It's one of the best marks at vantom weight The problem is he's just a high volume guy that works behind his jab There's not a lot of power or danger that comes with those strikes just a 0.54 knockdown rate still I really like him in this particular spot because I have significant questions about yan yas And that's kind of what happens with ufc the they face these guys that don't really test these abilities And then they get to this top shelf level where every guy can do everything and that's font yan yas hasn't faced a grappling threat Um, only five low quality takedown attempts so far where his font. He's not an amazing grappler But he took down joe zalba took down uh cheeto vera and his last two consecutive fights So if yan yas can't grapple at all this one's going to be a route But if you look on the feet, he can still have success against yan yas A yan yas is knockouts have come against guys that are 5 11 in 1 in ufc. They're not talented fighters They're not beating anyone else hardly Um, that is not rob font rob font is a guy that absolutely just mantled kodi garbrain He's a high level fighter And I trust him with a reach advantage she get this done in another similarly projected striking match And if it's not a striking match, I know rob font's dominating it So you mentioned before that we can see stars like adesanya get a bit of juice on their money lines because people know them Do is there a similar dynamic with prospects like yan yas where There's a bit of unknown so people get excited about that or is is it a different dynamic there? Yeah, for sure. You know, you and I have talked on here about sugar shan oh manly before as he's been rising up the ufc ranks um Hey, there are a couple other guys on this card 18 year old rahul rosas jr Ignacio bahamondes these electric prospects that are knocking everybody out putting up big striking numbers They really kind of just ascend to this meteoric rise until they reach They reach the place that their trajectory is supposed to be because the gap in the champion in a ufc division And the guy that is right on the fringe entry level is a canyon And so you're exactly right that these money lines you get juice for prospects because we think they're unbeatable Until we find out they are Okay, so uh, austin is on the rob font money line at plus 152 Alex perera plus 116 and chris kurtis at plus 108 We have a lot of props though Across the board here for ufc when you look at those austin any standout to you is being good values right now So I will stay on the main card with an interesting fight And by the way your listeners here on the cover in the spread get it first over on my dfs podcast of my own here This fight between kevin holland and santiago punzanabio is actually going to be austin's fight of the night this You guys got it right I think both sides are viable in daily fantasy, which means this fight's going to be a back in fourth war And I like over two and a half rounds here Uh, it's sitting at plus 108 on fando sports book. I think we just have an overrated amount of power in this fight kevin holland only has a 0.49 percent knockdown rate since moving to welterweight last march santiago punzanabio just 0.25 percent since he had a lot of injuries a huge multi-year layoff And he's just come back and he's not quite he doesn't quite have his fast ball anymore Right and I in that respect these guys neither these guys wrestle both average less than half a take down For 15 minutes. So we've got a striking match here. There's not a lot of power I love over two and a half as these guys trade and by the way people are worried about kevin holland is potentially this accurate guy that lands with power santiago punzanabio excellent 62 percent striking defense So the guy with power is facing the better defensive fighter. I love the way this sets up to see all 15 minutes And it sounds like based on your read of this match you want to see all 15 minutes to not just for your bet But also like from a a viewership perspective sounds like you'd be into that as well Oh, yeah, this fight should be a banger for sure and and I will have a lot of this fight in daily fantasy on both sides So I am hoping yeah it goes to the judges. We get plenty of significant strike points over on the dfs side Yeah, okay, so that is holland versus punzanabio Plus one away to go over two and a half rounds in the popular section over at fando sports But if you're looking for that prop there, what about other props? What else is seeing for right now for saturday? So you've probably you probably can relate this like with nascar I almost feel gluttonous going back to a spot that i've gone to over and over again. It just gives me 10 baby I guess 10 I know exactly I'm going here with jerald mirshart by submission. Uh, it was sitting at plus 360 But I would not be surprised if he shortened whatsoever Because i've seen a lot shorter numbers at other books But I I can't help but go back here with mirshart when I look 77 percent of his fights have been won by submission in his pro career 27 of 35 He averages 1.70 submission attempts per 15 minutes, which is a top three mark on this card It is really his one plus skill in ufc and I just have questions about his opponent here Jim you would you would appreciate this as someone that I know your banter His opponent joe pipher comes out and says jerald mirshart sucks Which is in my opinion not good got not a good thing to say to someone Who's going to be punching you in the face in a couple of days? But the reality is I could make that argument sooner for joe pipher because the only fighter pipher has fought And beaten in ufc is actually the ufc record holder for fewest significant strikes landed It with a minimum of four fights in 20 minutes He is at alan amadovsky did not do anything in ufc and joe pipher thinks that he's a world leader now that he knocked him out I think the 10 time winner in ufc jerald mirshart here Really gives joe pipher a lesson and mirshart looked improved on the feet in his last fight He knocked down bruno silva who's a guy that went all 15 minutes with perrera Like I think mirshart is still improving this deep into his career and he's a great submission guy So I think he does use his weapon of choice Um to dispatch of the prospect pipher here Uh, I am someone who believes you should get 15-year penalty for not taunting after a good play So I am pro trash talk regardless of whether you're good. I think if you suck it's way funnier. So honestly I'm I'm in you know, I respect the joe pipher The the trash talk, but I I understand we're coming from with the with the mirshart by submission That's in the method of victory. Uh plus 360 is uh still where it is for that one from mirshart versus pipher honestly like If we could like trash talk like on this show I'd be fun like I I would never because I love my guests And I don't want to trash talk myself because that's weird But like I wish there were aspects of my life where I could trash talk like playing f1 manager the video game I can't trash talk to williams as I fly by them. That seems kind of weird Um, so I need to find an outlet in my life where I can trash talk because it's uh, it's one thing I'm missing pretty sorely right I absolutely feel like you would be the kevin garnet of the bedding sports radio landscape Yeah, I don't I think he's on another level Um, I don't think I can get there. I'm bad at trash talk. That's maybe that's why I respected so much is because I'm bad at it So, uh, joe pipher full respect man salute to you, but I would like to win some money So we're cheering for gerald mirshart there to win it by submission That is austin swain. You can find him on twitter at asway and three as he mentioned uh the keycheck fantasy podcast for usc 287 coming up later on today to hear more about these matches from a dfs perspective I'm pretty sure i'll have time to fill out a lineup. So checking out your helper checking out the heat check as well austin Have a fantastic weekend. Thank you for your insights. Good luck to you and we'll talk to you again soon That sounds good jen. Have a great weekend Alrighty again, that should be up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast for you later on today Check out austin on twitter at asway and three if you want to play the dfs side Check out the helper there if that'll be up on a number fire as well We're gonna dive in to today's nlb slate later on talk about some money lines and strikeout props I like but first a reminder grand slams no hitters and double plays are back And there's no better place to get in on the action than fan duel america's number one sports book That's because right now new customers can step up to the plate with a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 Sign up place your first bet and get up to $1,000 back in bonus bets if you don't win So don't miss a chance to get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 when you join fan duel today Fan duel official partner major league baseball must be 21 plus and president select states First online a real money wager only $10 deposit required refund issued is non with trouble bonus bets that expire in 14 days Restricts is applied see full terms at fan duel dot com slash sports book Fan duel is offering online sports wagering in kansas under an agreement with the kansas star casino llc gambling problem call 1 800 gambler over to fan duel dot com slash rg in arizona 1 800 next step or tax next step to five three three four two In kineticate 188 789 7777 or was it ccpg dot org slash chat in indiana 1 809 with it in wyoming and kansas 1 805 22 4700 or in kansas ks gambling help dot com in louisiana 1 877 770 stop in maryland md gambling health dot org in new york 1 877 a hope and wire text open y In west virginia go to 1 800 gambler dot net as we talk about the mlb side of things for today Not a whole lot i am seeing as far as value on money lines based on my model one spot I do like based on what i'm seeing based on the model i trust the most right now I do like the pirates of plus 114 against the white socks and that does feel icky Not super high on the pirates personally rich hill is starting i think lukas g lead will look pretty good in his first start this year so On the surface not a huge fan of this but i understand what the model is saying I think what it's saying is it's more so that it's Lower on the white socks and consensus than being higher on the pirates the white socks defense pretty bad Their bullpen and its current state is not good and the offense is fine Although they do get a boost today by facing a lefty instead of a righty I do like again we saw from lukas g ledo in his first start this year g ledo was a guy Who struggled a lot last year and a guy i was Going against pretty often whether it be dfs or talking about uh unders and strikeout props opposing money lines and stuff like that I thought he was better in that start last week than he was most of last year in a very tough matchup with the astros But starting pitching isn't everything So my model has the pirates as slight favorites in this game implied odds of plus 114 Are 46.7 and i'm willing to ride at the model here Despite not being all that high on pittsburgh they are at home That matters quite a bit uh, they Have other stuff like the defense is better offense is fine bullpen is fine I think that's enough where this game might be closer to a toss up than what the uh sports books are saying So plus 114 the pirates the one money line. I like for today There are two strikeout props that I like there was some movement on these earlier this morning So do you want to check to make sure they are still available at the numbers? I was looking at but the ones I wanted to go to A couple of lenders the first one is jack flarity against the brewers. I was looking at under five and a half It was uh minus 114 earlier on today. We'll pull that up right now Over at fandall's sports book. See where it is right now minus 122 right now in jack flarity So as moved a bit more towards the under that is still okay minus 122 a fair number for me and Flaherty says and the brewers they're definitely a team that will strike out But they also draw a lot of walks the brewers active roster has a 10.6 walk rate versus righties Since the start of last year. That's a big concern for flaherty who walked seven guys in his first start this year And we saw that with flaherty last year when he came back as well Had some troubles with control and that jack's a pitch count and a higher pitch count means it's tougher to get deep in games Now flaherty has stretched out. I haven't projected for 97 pitches for tonight, but the walks concern me 4.7 strikeouts projected for me with jack flaherty He needs six to get the over here So I'm fine betting against that minus 122 a bit Juicier than it was before but still a fine number of my me And one I'm going to bet so jack flaherty in the brewers and the cardinals game. I want the under there at minus 122 The other one is chris bassett. I want four and a half The under here for chris bassett facing off with the angels for today and the under on this one is now minus 128 That's getting closer to the point where I step off But minus 128 still of value for me I have the odds on an under four and a half for bassett at 60 percent So as long as it's less than minus 150 I still think there is value on bassett to go under four and a half strikeouts I am projected for 3.95, which is why the under is so high there for me And that projection for bassett includes last year's data as well So it's not just a reaction to what we saw in the opener But maybe it should be because last week was really rough. He had no strikeouts got chased early the velocity for bassett was really bad and It comes after a really rough spring training so That would be one thing if we were just reacting to what bassett did last week where he had no strikeouts velocity was bad it could be an overreaction to one start, but This is not just one start again. It does include some data from last year and even then it has a strikeout projection at 3.95 so Regardless of whether you want to put stock in last year or just react to last week I think both those things do point towards under for chris bassett against a very good angel's offense again I have the under here at 60 so If you can get it before it gets to minus 150 it would take it if it goes down to three and a half again I've got about 3.95. So I probably would step away if it does go down to three and a half Um, I think that that point I would be okay Stepping away, but with it currently at four and a half minus 128 on the under I still think there is value there. So chris bassett under four and a half minus 128 jack flarity under five and a half at minus 122 and then Going with the pirates money line of plus 114 Against the white socks for today That's all we got across baseball and usc for today But we are back once again next week breaking down everything across the sporting landscape as always new podcasts every week day On the covering the spread podcast feed so make sure you are subscribed wherever you get your podcast and again Check us out over on the fandal youtube page as well subscribe there If you like what you hear leave us a five star rating or on youtube give us a thumbs up We appreciate those of you who have been doing so big. Thank you once again to our guest austin swain for swinging by Breaking down his thoughts on usc 287 find him on twitter at a swain three find his work over at number fire and find His dfs podcast that he checked over on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed If you've got any questions for me, I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s reminder our bristol dirt podcast is up on the Covering the spread podcast feed already and over on the fandal youtube page. I hope you all have a fantastic holiday weekend For those of you who are celebrating good luck to you across your bets We'll talk to you once again monday talk about some major league baseball This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network