 Okay, very good morning to you. It is Thursday the 6th of August. Hope you're doing well Two things to mention first before we begin firstly our non-farm payrolls tomorrow We're gonna be covering that myself and the team live. We've got the head of trading peers He's gonna be with us. Obviously Sam North who you know Alex will will all be online to help tackle that event and also talk about it in real time and answer any questions You have so go to the registration link in the description of this video on YouTube and you can sign up Secondly, don't forget to like and subscribe to the channel really appreciate all of the engagement this week Any questions at all that you have as we go through just let me know But let's just have a quick look at what's going on this morning and focus on a couple of different things We obviously just had the Bank of England Interest rate decision come out just a short while ago did create a little bit of upside movement in sterling currency And I'll explain why in a moment But just giving a general overview pretty quiet overall in the index futures Perhaps a slight mention for the DAX because one of the larger market cap components Siemens did come out pre-market this morning With their earnings and they are called up in excessive 3% head to the open So do be aware of that if you're looking at the DAX Otherwise elsewhere in the precious metal space. There was a target that we had put out on silver less than 48 hours ago for a cool on 28 and our objective just being hit this morning and so gold Excuse me silver, which was a really key test and rejection and a retest that we saw back on the third at 26 bucks which is that low on 2011 12 has been breached and we've just continued to accelerate up and this kind of Being the type of price movement momentum based Technical based I've been talking about a lot with silver specifically which has come out performed gold it has Moved on the in sympathy if you like on a lot of the same reasoning of that of Gold in the yellow metal space But what we tend to see with silver is much more violent movement from point A to point B Targeting then clear technical levels, which we're looking back now to several years in 2012 13 type price activity So with silver prices now if we continue to move higher probably the next stop I'd look at would be up and around those cluster of highs that we were printed back in kind of mid-march or 2013 And they would come then just ahead of that 30 dollar handle on the upside if we if we remain bullish in a way That we have done of late, but as you've probably seen before with silver Now when we hit 25 we had 25 then bit of a pullback then the break 26 pullback then the break so it wouldn't be unsurprising to see perhaps something similar here and Just be mindful of the pullbacks can be quite violent So if we came back down to 26 sure perhaps that could be an opportunity to reassert long and then push back up to 28 And perhaps their multiple tests before then a break eventually does come and we we power on up again But for the moment That that move pretty swift and then in the gold market We continue to trade up in close proximity to the highs it was seen yesterday afternoon looking at the gold future We hit 20 70 and we're up now trading at 20 64 So after a bit of a pullback after hitting that initial push up We're right back up there again this morning with a game of around 15 and a half bucks on the session Any further pullback on this price Probably be looking at around that 20 60 mark You can see here You've got that previous push on the high that we had Yesterday morning, and then you've got the the floor to price activity this morning when Europe has come in At around 20 60 any further beyond that point then the pivot level sits at 20 50 Does bring in some of that price low that we had in the overnight session in Asia that it responded to and anything below there 2042 would then start to bring in the the low point from Yesterday's session on that initial pullback on the all-time high and then that previous resistance point we had back into the That big rally that we had on the breakout through 2000 at the beginning of the week So definitely a couple of interesting areas if we did get a pullback On that point so on round 20 60 50 and 42 in gold is what I'd be looking at Obviously on the upside 70 for the previous days high and the the all-time high in in gold Elsewhere in the crude market. So just having a quick overview of the charts In the crude market big run up yesterday But then has just paired that going into the kind of European exit and then we've gone into a kind of relative period of Consolidation here quite a nice area though support of the market has responded to Throughout the overnight session, which is around that initial high we had on the fourth So around this kind of area, which gives us a nice kind of round figure at 42 as well In the context of things the upside rejection on the level that we had on the push yesterday Makes a lot of sense. You can see here on the daily continuation 4332 does coincide with around that March 2nd load that we'd already had marked up and were monitoring for any upside Potential breach on those previous levels and around 42 36. We were anticipating. We would see quite a quick run-up But find some Stern resistance at that point and see exactly how the prices has played out as far And then just a quick look at equities In regard to the Nasdaq, we just reshaped this chart for a second Not too exciting at this particular point in time Obviously, it's had a it's had a good push up onwards More recently, I guess this kind of area here these previous highs and now lows at around 11 072 would be quite interesting to watch going forward now We're not particularly in anywhere too interesting right at this point on the bigger picture, of course If you have to excuse my markups here, we were just talking about some hypothetical price movement here And the continuation of the trend line perhaps brings in that 12,000 on the upside Obviously, it's not just a one linear clean move up to the to retest that point I'm sure there will be an ebb and flow to the price movement But now we've got this really strong floor for price And this is what I was trying to indicate some of the guys yesterday and some of our discussions that you know that 11,058 level looking at a daily continuation on the futures, which was that retest We had the eventual break and now you can see in yesterday's price In the session that provided a nice platform of floor now as it has done today so far in the price activity Which really I guess coincides with around this type of level We're looking at here in the short of 30 minute candlestick chart for for supporting price for if we're going to continue To grind this out and move higher from a from a technical perspective in the s&p again, nothing really super exciting for this morning and What I would say though is the pivot level. It's probably a pretty decent level near term on the support area Capsulating not just a pivot, but the late US session and the US afternoon lows Obviously a bit of volatility amid some major data that was coming out yesterday But on a daily continuation Again, we were looking at that That gap down that we had on the coronavirus first outbreak outside of mainland China at the beginning of the year That was what caused that gap down in price from around 21st to the reopening on 24th And that level has been watched as quite a key level and you can see that level as well in itself is Providing a pretty decent floor to the price so far today So be interested to see if that holds and if it does technically Obviously barring any fundamental shifts that we see on things like trade war or Congress negotiations Then this could act as a nice floor as well for price, which Ultimately then doesn't see really next resistance coming up until we get quite a bit higher So the technical pitch is kind of set perhaps for a little bit of an extension of these moves But obviously there are quite a few big things to monitor Not just on the the trade war front not just on the Congress front But we've also got some major economic data still to come obviously with jobless today and then non farms on Friday On a currency perspective a couple of things. I'm watching here is And we can just bring in actually let's focus on sterling for a second Seen a bit of renewed dollar weakness, but if anything we had an ejection The catalyst being the pound just fired up a little bit on the back of the Bank of England I think really super spectacular there But certainly from a from a daily candlestick point of view looking at the sterling futures here As you can see marked up We're right back at quite a key technical level year-to-date for 2020 That being the resistance that we had pre the pandemic on two occasions And then the recovery high that we had not that long ago Backed last week at the end of last week and we're right back up there again testing with the hand or 32 So definitely worth watching here on how it behaves and you have to kind of overlay that with the euro currency Which on the weekly is still kind of Tussling with that that long-term trend line going back. This is kind of a 12-year picture on that retest in 2014 and then not that long ago where it got rejected initially on the first attempt That coinciding still at around that close proximity to that summer Or September 18 high that we had which is around that kind of 119 marker So yeah still interesting to watch Certainly how we finish this week on these key levels because certainly if we get a kind of a data play out where the dollar Weakens again continues that kind of deterioration trend that we've seen as a greenback And we get a firm close Technically on the week above these key levels will then it does open up the prospects of perhaps a further extension in these Euro moves the next kind of big level that I'd be looking out for then is kind of a push-up 1250 starts to encapsulate that low 2012 the high that we had in September of 2017 would be the next kind of targets there on the outside So currency markets still at these big long-term key levels that warrant monitoring And so let's get into the news and talk about a couple of things It's kind of the charts in the general summary and I wanted to quickly just mention the the data that came out yesterday Then of a mixed picture ADP as you can see here 167,000 was well below market expectations at 1.5 million So we were expecting a deterioration in July from the prior readings which peaked in June at 4.314 million However, not to the degree of what we had and that actually did breach the lower bound However, for anyone new to trading and I was expressing this to some of our junior traders There are some quirks to certain economic data points and ADP is certainly one of those And the point being that is there's actually two readings really when you actually think about the practical Execution around ADP and that is you've got the actual reading against expectations And that's the most obvious one of course, and that's the 167,000 But then with ADP you've got to be aware of the revision and yesterday despite the large significant miss on the headline the actual previous saw a sharp upward revision and so The timings of that revision is what's quite key to be aware of if you're not used to seeing that that data come out And how markets react there normally is a slight length effect where the news wires can be Multiple seconds before they report the revision. So what you can often see is move one can be counteracted Very similar to what we saw kind of the case yesterday You get conflicting signals bad headline, but a positive revision and you can get this type of movement You can get caught out if you commit to a trade quite aggressively without getting the full picture of the release the scientists Just be aware of so ADP was was on the weaker side overall But somewhat neutralized by the revision, but then we had the ISM reading and you know if I look at the headline here 58.1 The reading indicates the service sector grew for the second consecutive month after two months of contraction And certainly this was a strong figure beat expectations You can see the sharpness of that V recovery here in the service PMI for America But one of the things as well as explaining to us as some of the newer guys was You know when you when you read these PMI reports, it's quite important to really digest the full picture And look at the constituents of what comprise of these reports to get an underlying sense of a bit more detail behind just a superficial kind of headline And it is a bit of a mixed picture actually which does take some other shine of perhaps then the the general positivity from that 58.1 and just the the positive signs are the fact that Business activity was up New orders was up However on the flip side what was slightly more suspect was the fact that the employment component and this will be obviously particularly key for the medium-term recovery of the united states particularly with all this Doing and throwing of negotiations happening on capital hill at the moment But in the employment it actually contracted to 41.1 Which was a one point decrease from what we had the last time out And then if you actually look at new export orders, they actually decline rapidly between june to july It was a loss of nearly 10 points. And then you can see Imports infantry sentiment were also both contracting so Yeah, quite a few Things there to be aware of it. It's always good when i7 came out yesterday Well, that was a particularly positive number the initial reaction was pretty much a zero And that's because a lot of people look at these underlying metrics to get a bit more of a granular sense of what is the information telling us Because it's not just about one reading It's about the underlying particular interest in certain other areas as well that are quite telling For the overall situation So, yeah, that that's just a brief overview. But other headlines i'm looking at this morning Democrats are demanding More republican concessions to meet an end of week deadline for the deal on pandemic relief To just keep running you through what the latest state of play here is White house chief of staff mark meadows and treasury secretary steve munition suggested further talks may be fruitless If the two sides can't agree soon on a general outlook for the stimulus package Trump the president has said He is considering executive action to prevent evictions and also cut the payroll tax If they're still far apart by the end of the week The white house has offered 400 bucks per week in supplementary unemployment benefits Through to the end of the year essentially middle of december which the democrats have rejected They are still insisting on the reinstatement of that six hundred dollar level according to people familiar with the matter The talks are set to resume today. So continue to monitor the situation with some interest There's no really set timings around it You just need to be keeping an ear out as we get in towards in london this afternoon. So morning on the east coast Senate majority leader mitch mcconnell said the senate will be in session next week Persponing then their kind of scheduled august break the house is now out But members have been told they could be caught back within short notice 24 hours to vote on any virus relief legislation so yeah, still They're negotiating hard at the minute seemingly there is some signs of concessions that are happening ahead of the these kind of deadlines looming at the end of the week So still needs to be monitored if we're going to continue this kind of Grind up in these equity markets As we have done of late then We're supporting factor to continue that would be them coming to some kind of compromised deals that they can then move forward With this additional stimulus packages as well Elsewhere at the u.s. China trade front um Pompeo has been out it's kind of more More assertive tone being continued at the moment by the The secretary of state he's urged american companies to bar chinese applications from their app stores sign in u.s Ever to banish chinese technology for these u.s. Computers and smartphones. So I wouldn't read too much into that. I don't think it's uh an elevation to a great extent um, I think if anything and and the From my experience of monitoring this trade war over the last couple of years um, they do tend to play a little bit good cop bad cop If you actually notice People like trump tends to be quite superficial top level You know the chinese virus these sorts of things But then he kind of utilizes his members of his team and the secretary of state mike ponpao is probably the most outspoken In his rhetoric being anti chinese Uh, and then you have some of the others like the trade advisor peter navarro who can be quite out there And I think that this all gets deployed strategically So that you know, you can kind of talk firm one hand and then You know trump has the ability from the top then to kind of unwind it and talk about actually You know, we we would like to talk and we saw that in the journal yesterday And that was also a net positive force for for sentiment short term as well In wednesday's session the fact that they're looking to meet to discuss face Well face to face or virtually The phase one trade deal in mid august so yeah To be aware of but again, I don't think it's going to be meaningful in terms of strategy development this morning Just pointing out seamans, uh, they are as I mentioned briefly in the introduction a major component of the dax index Profit beats a software unit makes up for industrials adjusted earnings climb eight percent That was quite a bit quite a bit higher than market expectations Just looking at the pre-market indications seamans shares caught up As an output format up around three point one two percent head of the opening bell in the cash market And then just having a look at the session ahead You have already had the bank of england as I just showed you on the chart the pound did respond In a slightly positive fashion. So just a quick summary here Unchanged on the interest rate and the asset purchase facility the the vote split was nine nil So all of that as expected. They have released a monetary report Monetary policy report, which is their outlook. They're slightly more upbeat than their previous issue Of that report back in may particularly on the gross front for this year not quite as pessimistic as it was before but that was also partly expected by the marketplace They Said the door is open to negative rates But they'd rather put other existing policy instruments Before that and that would be their preference before turning to that option So the bank of england for me continues to kind of It's kind of like just having the option here. I don't think At this point the bank of england seriously wants to entertain The actuality of moving interest rates into negative territory I think that they're trying to utilize this this this verbal rhetoric and forward guidance in order to just Put it out there enough That the market responds in kind and actually I never actually have to utilize that tool in itself, but Perhaps then that's why The market the pound has seen a little bit of a mildly or moderate positive response The fact that they're slightly more upbeat than main general terms in some of these projections But also negative rates is not a definitive our course of action So they're kind of saying there's several layers let yet of other policies Using to come before we get to that point which in itself would be deemed as Slightly more well less dovish more hawkish in that respect otherwise on the calendar Looking forward to the u.s. Afternoon. You got jobless claims and I just wanted to mention that briefly. This is a look at the last 12 readings of u.s. Jobless claims as you can see here the last two readings. We've actually seen A incremental increase We were on a persistent Decline from the peaks that we had obviously Post then the major shutdown that we had in north america in april The slow reopening of may has meant that jobless claims are deteriorated or the situation has improved less people claiming benefits However, we've seen an uptick and this is quite important actually and I'll talk about this more tomorrow ahead of non-farm payrolls because Payrolls obviously comes up To a reference period of the the middle of the month essentially in july in terms of the survey period So actually payrolls isn't going to capture this latest pick up in jobless claims and that for me is quite telling about the real How important payrolls is going to be overall of course It's going to cause as it always does some short-term volatility But overall payrolls is capturing this period here Which actually the picture was quite different from the uptick We've seen since that cutoff of data period has happened where if anything this picture would indicate the job situation has got slightly worse So for the jobless claims. Yeah, interesting. It will be for how You know, how much is this trend continuing? Is it just leveling off at around this mid 1.4 million marker? Or does it start to move higher again or not? We'll be something to look out for this afternoon Other than that from a bank of england point of view It is a closed-door q&a actually the the governor andrew bailey is having With the press and his comments then do not come out publicly on the news wires until 10 a.m So I would keep an eye out for that likelihood. He's going to be some more clarity perhaps about this negative interest rate situation So that'll be at 10 o'clock for any sterling traders. I would be mindful of that if you are in any position Then going further forward Feds cap plan of voters speaking on an economic outlook at 3 p.m. This afternoon and then from The rest of the earnings perspective again Adidas for example, if I look at the leaderboard, they are caught up slightly slightly higher around 0.2 percent this morning So still a lot of german european earnings to be aware of Head of cash market opened with my u.s. earnings perspective nothing really of great substance from an index traders point of view Okay, that is it. Thank you very much for watching again Don't forget to subscribe to the channel for more coverage From myself and the rest of the team over the coming days and the weekend But have a good session ahead And hopefully I'll be seeing you all anyway or live for the payroll session tomorrow. All right. Have a good day guys