 The Power Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, David White. And welcome all to another excellent episode of The Power Trading Hour. And as always, we meet at the appointed time. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. So what do we have going on today? Well, we're up about 40 points on the S&P cash. Now it's up 212, Nasdaq's up 134. Russell's up 16.8. Crude Oil's up 85 cents. Gold's up 11 bucks. Silver's up a buck, 06. And of course, what I'm really interested in most of all, which we'll get to in a minute, is the TLT down 74 cents, 107.57. We'll look at the dollar and some other stuff going on here. But yep, that's kind of it. As we did in the update, a few things going on. The CPI numbers in the morning. Did I have that? Why don't we go ahead and get to the TLT. Not much of a bounce. And for my trading, I'm pretty much focused on knowing where the money is and the bodies are buried. And as we said, I wasn't looking for much in the way of a bounce right away in the bonds. We had a low of 26 million shares at 108.12. That was back on June 16th. We got 24.6 million shares on the 6th. We're retesting that today, not too bad, about 7.4. So there may be a bottom starting to develop around this area that you might be able to either trade off of or infer that the market could do something like top out. That may be on the CPI numbers in the morning. That's probably a binary outcome. So no way to actually know. We used to hear nothing about these numbers, but how they were cooked by the government. And now that they're horrible, you don't hear anybody saying that they're cooked. I'm wondering if that won't kind of come back. There's always in the realm of politics somebody willing to put their thumb on the scale. And with a lot of people facing reelection, you always wonder if somebody at the VLM or some of these other agencies don't get a little phone call saying that things better start looking a little bit better than they're supposed to. So we may get some numbers out there. They may be true. They may be false. But I guess the thing is if it was seven and a half is still as horrible as if it was truly eight. I don't know if it really matters that much for one day in the market. Maybe it does. But that was kind of the, you know, when we're looking at that, we're looking at the bonds here. Right now it's closing and is under that 10812. So to me, that's a bigger signal than the light volume at the moment. Any bounce would be lucky to get you to 111. So there's not that much upside I suspect in the bonds and we continue to hear noise about that. He says they're not cooked. It's just like I was the ship apparently. So as we keep an eye on this market, as we said, there was a few things going on that I thought were pretty ridiculous. We've got I'm going to say backcrab crazy folks. This is what would you call it the dog and pony season for financial conferences where they tell people their quote quote investment ideas. I have already bought it and I want to sell it to you at a higher price. Probably the most ludicrous one today. And on the back of somebody asking at 80 year old asking me about Bitcoin and whether they should own in in FT's yesterday is the call for $1 million a Bitcoin Bitcoin in 10 years from now. I think if you make that kind of prediction, don't you get to face the death penalty if it doesn't come true? I think, you know, I can see people like me and I kind of tell everybody I drive trade markets like I'm driving in fog. I think I can probably see about as 25% as far as I think I can. You know, a lot of things could happen in 10 years, but Bitcoin at $1 million a coin, probably pretty ridiculous. So can we reenact the last five or 10 minutes of William Wallace's life in Braveheart for somebody like this that is just so ludicrously over the top? I don't know, but if I was king, I guess the queen died so I could make myself king. Maybe I can identify as the king. That's all it takes these days. Anyway, maybe I'd pass a law if you make some kind of backcrab crazy prediction beyond all scope of reason and without really telling everybody why. Maybe you can. Anyway, just some random thoughts that in the 80 year old asking me about Bitcoin and NFTs makes me think that maybe we've probably gotten to the end of the road on what is yet another episode of financial mania that goes back. Well, it goes back to actually for 2000 years, but probably documented the best starting in what is it about 1609 with the tulip mania. I always recommend one of the best books on understanding financial dementia from John Kenneth Galbraith. He was the big cheese during the John Kennedy regime back in the early 60s, but he wrote a lot of books about understanding economics and they weren't the kind of both or at least the ones I read of his were more historical to get an idea of what was going on. So TLT. It's close and lower. We've got some numbers in the morning. Could it be the blowout numbers? Everybody suspects if they're good? Will everybody just say that they were leaned on for political reasons? There's a little bit for everybody's plate. I'm pretty much all in cash. I think that there's more happening. Of course, this week Friday is quad-witching. So there's a lot of stuff going on. I did bring up on the update. There are two things going on right now. That's assault conference in New York. The other was a bunch of people in Newport Beach pushing single stock futures. Now there are 25 single stock futures, 24 of them don't have any volume. And the one that does is Tesla. So if you're looking for some kind of interday leveraged position to lose more money on instead of less, you got that. But you know what? They're adding another five this week. I think so. That'll take us, what, 31 single stock futures? Yep. Well, do I have any audio here? I don't hear anything. I have some of my outro music yet. I'm listening. Now I'm just assuming it's playing and I do not hear. Oh, there we go. If you want to take advantage of this sector, now is the time to subscribe to my Gold Report. The Gold Report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold, which is the currency and bond markets. New subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to lose. Every Monday morning I publish the Gold Report with coverage of gold, silver, bonds, the XAU, HUI, GDX, as well as more than 30 different mining equities. 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Talk about everything I wanted to do. Single stock futures. Yeah, I guess that was probably it. I think there's a whole lot more to talk about. Of course, the SMHs are flat. Five more companies, mostly in the manufacturing side of the SMHs, like the five materials we'll look at in a moment. Got their letters on Friday stating that they can't sell anything to China. Without a license. And hey, you know what? He ain't getting a license. Of course, most people keep on trying to avoid the fact that China has been making or anything in China has built in backdoors. I think we probably talked about it in 2016. And I knew that it was coming. And that was the, I want to say it was super micro. I want to think it was super micro, not 100% sure that was the company. Had gotten a bunch of motherboards for servers. And they had kind of a little different chip on them than what was ordered. And it was a way to basically backdoor any PC and be able to look at data on it. The FBI said, oh, no, no, no, no, nothing's happened. Nothing happened. And of course, much like TikTok, where several intrepid software engineers took it apart and looked and found out it was nothing but a Trojan horse sending all its data back to the China. Chinese Communist Party. Kind of the same thing. They found it was the hundred boards had or so destined probably for a secure facility. No one ever said was that. Well, everybody just gets worse and worse. I was always rather shocked to see that in the change of administration, suddenly, maybe someone believed that China was going to change their colors. Anybody. Euler. I don't. Okay. I don't think anybody believed it. I don't know what happened. Maybe someone got paid off. Wouldn't be beyond the scope of reason. We've got people getting 10, 15 million dollars sideways from their wives, daughters, cousins, sons at the highest levels of office in Congress and other places. So would it be beyond the scope of reason that people got leaned on a little bit to make those go away? And maybe there was a promise they wouldn't do it anymore. And someone incredibly stupid believed it. Well, you never know. But we're back at it again. And everybody's got to figure it out. Finally, that China is a threat to our national security if they can make hardware and especially the hardware we need. So no suit for you, Mr. Chinese Communist Party, trying to make semiconductors yourself. As we said, even what, six, nine months ago, we had, let's take a look at AMAT first and then I'll go and look at ASML. You know, is it a big deal? I think everybody knew it was coming. I don't think there's anything new. ASML, of course, the big one that got hit early on, and I think it was back here in the tail end of 2021, was ASML. Even though they're in Europe, in the EU, they've got the Riot Act written or read to them about selling the high-end machines for creating really the soak screen. Let's call it the easiest way to think about it. The machines that actually make those, and it's been beyond. So you don't see a lot of action now. Most of these companies knew that something like this had already come. They just got the official word, but probably knew about it 60, 90 days ago. The question is, is this enough to actually get the semis to watch out? And I don't know. We'll probably see the reaction with the CPI in the morning, and maybe that'll tell us a great deal more. We continue to see short squeezes on a lot of stocks that had been down. There aren't that many short positions, but that's it. Apple is kind of one of the most interesting ones after their dog and pony and new product show that actually got everybody a collective beyond. You've got a big bounce out of here today. And this is on probably a bit of propaganda. And that is when the stock didn't do anything, they had to break out the big guns, and that's the phony story. In this case, we had so many orders that it crashed all the servers. Well, that would probably make sense in 2005, but doesn't make sense in 2022 within really seconds, or maybe even one second. If you need more server capability, more internet capability, all these big companies run on web based services. You can spin stuff up in an amazingly fast level. So actually, my belief would be that Apple either one was negligent in being ready, or two is lying about crashing the servers with so many orders. I bring the story up from time to time because it was one of the ones I thought was most interesting. I think it had to be about 1986, and I was at Moscone Center in San Francisco, and I went in to watch a product roll out. And I think it was for the second version of the Macintosh. And my friend at the time was with me. We'd gone out there to go do some sightseeing. He was in the business of having what would you call it, the meeting rooms and all that stuff. In fact, he worked at the Hyatt Regency in Kansas City. If you remember that, where everybody got crushed, he just happened to be off that night, thank God. But down to the Hyatt Regency, anyway, he was talking to the people about what it was like to work out there, how much money they got paid, he got to talking to them. He found out that Apple had actually rented four of the different sized rooms there. And what they were doing was looking at the crowd and making sure that they got one size too small. So a lot of people had to be standing out in the hall. So when people took pictures or had any ideas about it. But since Guy Kawasaki, who put together a lot of that, there just isn't a lot of reality around the marketing on Apple. I don't know if they have a lot of orders or not, but seems a little bit too convenient. We'll be back in a minute. To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the Gold Report, sign up now by visiting TFNN.com. Don't miss out on the next great gold trade. Sign up today. And it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV. Live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. Until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN. Educating investors. TFNN is excited about our new software charting program, the Art of Timing the Trade Chart. In collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book, The Art of Timing the Trade, Your Ultimate Trading Mastery System, David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology. Using this first-of-its-kind program, the Art of Timing the Trade Chart allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups, including guardleafs, ABCs, butterflies, and much more. The Art of Timing the Trade Chart is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks, or even months searching to find. And right now, we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day, unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of the Art of Timing the Trade Chart today by visiting tfnn.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. You can always email me at pattyfnn.com. You can call me at 877-927-6648, and you can always leave a message in the den. So on Apple, just the point of my story is that you go out of a product announcement and you get nothing. You get a little bit of a short squeeze on Friday, but that's about it. And you get a bounce today. Is it a sign of strength? Not really. Just up to this gap down on Apple from the 29th, but kind of in bear markets. That's the kind of thing. You get the very sharp, very quick move higher, and we'll see what the volume is like before the end of the day. But yeah, lots of stocks in those SMHs having issues. The usual suspects not doing so well or flat. AMD's down 2%. Again, this is the pattern where I'm thinking that I would love to see if you want to see some kind of low in the market that is viable with a better track record of making low. And that is, well, let's just look at this here. You really have been underneath the 3x3 displaced moving average. You could use a 9-day moving average or something like that. You've barely cracked over it on Thursday. On Friday, you popped up here, but not a lot of volume. About half volume here today. You want one more pull back under that line. You want volume to really drop below the September 7th, the 69 million shares. And then you want to move back higher above the other side of that. That's not a prognostication. That is a pattern that may or may not develop. But that would be the pattern I would buy. Wycoff, who was kind of the patron saint of price and volume trading, called it an automatic rally. And he said, that's one that happens without any preparation. And there's no pattern that's been built. You didn't know that the bounce was coming. Maybe you did, maybe you didn't, but most of the time you didn't. So you want it to bounce. You want it to go up on a little bit of energy. And then you want it to pull back on light energy and retest the previous low. That'd be 77, 74. And one of our other find traders out there with Tim Ward, he always hammered early on, at least when I was listening to him in my formative years as a baby trading markets. That a low is not a low until it's been retested. And so there's kind of a good thing in there. But if you can gain back on lighter volume, that could be something you might want to look at. Somebody in the den did bring up the super micro thing. And I thought it was 2016. He's got a tweet from here that says something about 2018. That could be it. Or maybe that's the date of the article. Who knows? It may have been a year before that. But yeah, between that and hacks of chips that went in routers and chips that literally go into anything. You really can't trust. Okay. Anyway, that was it. Did we look at NVIDIA? Well, thanks. So AMD is down just a little. On NVIDIA, one of the other ones out here, it's popped back up to this gap down on the gap down on the first of September. It had 170, almost 118 million shares on Friday. You got into it with 48 million shares today with 36. So again, both of these might have some kind of low coming, but it didn't yet. And you want to retest that 132. 70 from September 1st on lighter volume. My thought is that we're working up some pressure for a lot of these probably to break. And that's mostly on the very light volume and energy that we've seen in these coming up off the low. Generally, you want to sign your string and then a pullback to the low on lighter volume. Not always, but that's generally it when you get a bounce with not much of anything. And then it goes back down there. The second time or third time is the charm. Okay. Up 33 on the S&P cash down 31. Let's call it 170. 111 on the NASDAQ to the upside. Okay. We got some other things going on here. Yeah, there's nothing new on CCJ. I'll put it in my newsletter when there is. But right now, a lot of these stocks are just winding up. Maybe tomorrow after you get CPIs or something else. But yeah, we probably made some kind of low over the last week in energy. And, you know, you got a doji out here. Do we need to consolidate out this area? Probably, but you did. You did have a little bit of a pop up here. What I would think is maybe if you're lucky, you get a pullback to this uptrend line or downtrend line. That would take you somewhere in the high 79s, maybe around 80 and no volume. And then maybe that's where it starts. I think we have another week or so where, you know, generally the market does not start getting into a fall rally mode until very late in September. Like I said, September 25, 25, 28, something like that, that we're going to have the big dog and pony conference not seeking alpha. What's the other one? Returning alpha, delivering alpha. I think it's delivering alpha is yet another big orgy of financial. Suppose a genius is telling us what we should buy and where the price target is and everything else. And of course, you don't have a very good track record. A little bit of self-serving, talking their own book. Of course, they've already bought all these stocks that now supposedly are going higher or lower. And they let us know not before, but after they get involved in it. Question about micron from Joe. Am I seeing anything out here? This has got a fairly decent low volume. You got a bounce out here, but again on light volume. I would love to see, like all these in these SMH's, a pullback on lighter volume to retest these previous lows. Without it, I'm just waiting for the other shoe to drop. Now you got to like that light volume. You get a bounce off of it and the volume probably should have a sign of strength. We haven't gotten one without a sign of strength. You're more than likely to come back and test the 5209. You maybe don't have to get in all the way. Maybe 53 in lighter volume and that's it. We'll be back in a minute. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis. And it's not just dry tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV. Live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. 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An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four-Side Fund Services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. As we come back and take a look, question about the spies. First of all, we had a question about CRISPR. It kind of looks like the rest of the whole market. I do like that it came back on lighter volume off the 86-95 high. It came down and made it low. You bounce, but again, I didn't find it. I wanted to look at it, IBD. Yeah, I can't find it. Thought maybe, here it is. Investors Business Day, there it is. One of the things I liked, IBD used to be on TFNN. I think Tom used to interview somebody from there. And the one thing I thought was interesting, there was a lot of stuff they had on there, but some of it self-serving. I picked 50 stocks. Other people think that that's a license to make money. So they all buy those stocks. So it ends up being kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy on something. But they did preach something that I kind of used three days. I think they were using four or five days. And that is that you should have some sign of strength and follow-through days or something like that. Now, just going up on the same volume doesn't really make my heart all warm and fuzzy. And that's generally why I want to see another retest before I buy a stock. It may look good like CRISPR does here on the price, but you're not getting much in the way of people breaking down the doors to get in like it's the day after Christmas at Walmart. And we have a steel cage grudge match to get the latest doll for the kid. Na, na, na, na, na. We have about the same amount of people wanting in or out. And I'm looking for signs of a bunch of people wanting in or out. And I don't have much of either here. And that's why I suspect that we're going to get one more bite at the apple of the lows, not particularly apple itself, but an apple. So I'd like to pull back a little bit underneath the three by three displaced moving average. I like that volume to really shrink and then close back above it. And that would probably be where I would buy it. So that's kind of the way I would buy it. That is me. Okay, what else do we have? Got some more emails flooding in. Okay. I got a request for an e-trade commercial from 2000. Looks like this candle. Okay. What was his name now? I can't even remember. Loyalty little guy that was helping out the boss to buy stocks. Stewart, wasn't it? Was it Stewart? I'll say it was Stewart. Okay. Let's go through these emails here real quick and take a look. Okay. Question about ADI. We'll take a look at some of these other semis. I probably should have gone through all of you today to see what was going on. Well, you're up a little bit. You got about half the volume. But this is what always makes me think that there's another shoe getting ready to drop. And that is we're in the 12th of September. We should have some volume. We should have some signs of strength and not just on massively shorted stocks that have popped up for a day and are up 20%. And then go sideways for a week and then give it back all back up. I'm looking for a little more. We've got a short squeeze and a lot of the most highly shorted stocks. I'm not surprised that we get moves higher and things like CRISPR or the semis. But there's nothing in here that tells me either one that shorts have given up on it and or if there's a massive short squeeze, there's probably a bit of a short squeeze in these. But analog devices, you got not a big day going on in this. I don't know if there's anything to actually write home about. Martha wants to know about a target or downside target on TLT. Thanks for the first email, Martha. And see what else. Let's go back a little further. We have to go back way. We have to use the way back machine. And if we break here, really the next warret levels that go back all the way through 2019, we break this low. The next real big low out here is the November 2nd low of 2018. That was $100.76 on the TLT. So, you know, is it possible? I'm not going to say it's 80% or 70%, but at the moment, there's a probably, I'm going to say better than a flip of a coin 55, 60% chance that 176 cent low of November 2nd, 2018, a day that will live in infamy where you made that low and then of course everything turned around. So, we shall see. Okay, look at that, look at that, look at that. Make sure I'm at your question about Microsoft. Microsoft's still probably the class in the field, although it probably doesn't get as much parang as most of them. Again, a lot of this stuff's just kind of going sideways. What you don't kind of like is you've got three, well actually now two higher lower highs and you weren't able to make it even back up to the previous high. Again, a lot of these stocks in a perfect world are probably going to give you yet another opportunity to buy at a retest at the low, if you're thinking long. And again, volume's been about the same for 10, 15 days. On Microsoft, there's no real clue there. It had really picked up, it really hadn't gone down. So, I'm not a big fan of sticking my neck out on this one, but I don't chase and I buy generally when everybody's selling. And I would love to see us back into that candle of September 6th. On-liner volume, he had 21 million shares that day. Maybe something else happens or it's down there on 10 or 12 million shares. That would be probably a pretty good sign that your risk reward is good and you didn't get it closed below $251.94. But I've got a fairly good discipline about buying stocks when there's blood in the streets. The old French saying is, sell on the trumpets and buy on the cannons. And no cannons, yeah. We'll be back in a minute. Vista Gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia, the Mount Todd Gold Project. Vista Gold just completed their feasibility study, resulting in a 7 million ounce gold reserve. Vista Gold has all major permits approved and has retained CIBC Capital Market Assistance in evaluating alternatives and in completing an accretive transaction. Vista Gold trades on the NYSE American and TSX under the ticker symbol VGC. Vista Gold executing a strategy to create shareholder value. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. 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Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Catch Tom O'Brien, professional trader and educator, founder of TFNN. Also a special guest on CNBC. Tom will bisect and dissect the markets. The Tom O'Brien Show, next on TFNN. And we may have, there was a gentleman, I always forget his name. He was pretty famous in the 90s. I think his name was Peter or something. Anyway, he used to just go to the mall and see where everybody went in and out of. And those were the companies he bought in the mall. Peter Lynch, thank you. Well, we have some outside observability now. If you know where to look on who's doing what. And we talked about that tune out times last week. I think we brought it up a couple of times before that. That's when everybody quits watching. Well, Netflix has thrown an absolute God smack amount of money into trying to pick up the Lord of the Rings trilogy. But they did it twice as long and twice as bad. And everybody's pretty much screaming about how they've, well, I can't even say that. All the stuff that I'd love to say, I can't say. Anyway, they didn't do well on it. And a variety of people saying it's racist. Most of the people just saying it's horribly bad. But, you know, if you're going to take these moon shots and spend lots of money trying to get into the same business as some of these. Productions trying to do Marvel or DC, you're going to have some wins and losses. But it looks like a fairly big loss for Netflix with most people either laughing or throwing something at the TV. One of the best reviews I saw was that three hours into the Lord of the Rings on Netflix, they didn't get half as far as the movies did in two hours. I don't know. So when you can, not when you have to, we will return tomorrow.