 This is Carlos Seven, Director General of the International Livestock Center and my friend Naver in Nairobi. Carlos. Thank you very much. Let me see if I can get my whole life. Can you help me? Yes, I'll get it. Well, good evening. It's a real pleasure to be here. I've been called by my good friend Dennis to contribute a bit on the livestock side of what are the ideas, what can be done in terms of thinking out of the box, in terms of developing this evergreen agriculture. So I wanted, I just put together a very quick, a couple of slides, which I think my main point I want to share with you is that livestock are integral to most of the system we're talking about. Doesn't like it. There we are. So first of all, I want to maybe leave three points with you. Livestock is the fastest growing part of agriculture. It's the demand pool which can drive these systems. The second point is these are all mixed systems. And really understanding those interactions is absolutely essential to the design of any strategy. And the last point I'd like to make is that really we have a lot of the building blocks to really get this sustainable intensification that we call it. But the real challenge is much more an institutional, organizational one. How do we get everything together? I think you've seen from the previous presentations, there's enormous potential to increase crops. We've talked about corridor disease, there's vaccines which are out there but we haven't been able to deliver them in the way they should be there. All these building blocks out there, I think the real challenge is right now this whole business of scaling out, getting the whole system to work together. So just a few slides. First of all, just to look at this, these are the field data on value of production worldwide. And I just want, if you look at the columns, the values are interesting but the blue columns, the first thing worldwide is cow's milk. That's the most important commodity in the world. Most people forget about that. Cows, then you've got rice, then we've got cattle meat, pig meat, chicken, wheat, eggs. So you see livestock is really central to the agricultural sector. And as societies develop, this is more and more. So really understanding the power of these markets and using that as a driver, I think is one of the major messages I'd like to leave behind with you. Now, you might say, well, this is basically the developed countries which are driving that but if you look at the least FAO's classification of the least developed countries, rice is number one but indigenous cattle meat is number two and cow milk is number three. So just to confirm that this is not just a developed countries picture, really in the developing world this is where it is. Now, I was just talking about the dynamics. This is a picture from my friend Bruno Gerard. You see the same place in West Africa. In 1966 it was basically pastoral. This is what it looks now. Small holder intensive, very intensive mixed systems. So just to stress that this is a very dynamic context. Population growth, markets, these drivers are leading to change. This is why what our previous speakers have shown, systems have to change. Obviously the factor proportions are changing. You've got less land, you've got more people to feed, et cetera. And systems are reacting. In a way, I think as Dennis has shown, what we're seeing is very natural stuff. The only thing is I think science can help learn quicker to adapt to these changes and do that a bit more efficiently. But we really are working with the trends. So just to make sure that we agree, we've looked at very marginal systems, extensive mixed and intensive mixed systems They just wanted to stress again, if you look at these things here, the purple ones are intensive and the green ones are mixed extensive. So this part is what I would call mixed systems. And I really want to stress in terms of area, obviously the very marginal areas occupy a large part of the world. But if you look at the population, people are to a very large extent in the intensive systems and important. But they're all living in mixed systems. I think that's something we always forget. We always come in with a very disciplinary approach. We're looking at crops or trees or livestock with real challenges that all these things are integrated in a real system. So this is just another slide to now come a bit more specifically to the point which I wanted to make, which is that if you look at serial production in the world, the purple is the developed countries, but the bulk of the world's product, 50% of the serial production of the world and the largest chunk of the development are all coming from these mixed systems. This is again something which frequently is ignored. If you look at these different commodities, you see again the share, I mean rice for example in Asia, very much mixed system, sorghum, millet, maize a bit less, but really if you're talking cereals, and I think this is sort of one of the key entry points, particularly think about the Sahel and places like that, but also the animal production worldwide, you see the beef, the milk, the milk is still majority developed country, but the mixed systems in the developing world are very important. As you probably all know, right now India has surpassed the US as the largest producer of milk in the world. This is millions and millions of smallholders, yeah. But the central problem of all of this to intensify is biomass and cereals very centrally part of that. And this is sort of the yasta estimates of how much additional production we're going to need to 2050, a billion tons, and about half of that is going to go according to their estimates into additional livestock production, under 60 million into biofuels, and the other half into human consumption. So cereals, and this is why we are able to put enormous effort into understanding what is the potential of using crops, stubbles, homes of legumes like cowpea, like ground nuts, using those resources to feed the additional ruminant production. That seems to us to be the one way to expand animal production, which is even growing faster than crop production in terms of demand. We won't get a lot more rangelants. We're sort of maxed out there, and actually we're heating up the rangelants to put in more crops. So really the crop byproducts are the major way in which we're going to address additional production. And so we invest a lot into understanding, A, what are the potentials to breed for more dual purpose materials? And that's something which the developed country, private sector companies have not been addressing because basically in this part of the world you've got very specialized farming, even though you're moving back into discussion more and more often in the developed world. But so we're investing as public sector research to understand what are the traits which you could improve, for example, digestibility of stovers. You can increase four or five percent points in the digestibility without bringing down the yield of the grain and on the homes of cow peas, et cetera, sort of leave retention. There's a lot of ways in which we can develop those in a much smarter way to really optimize it. So the whole issue of the biomass and how we use that is critical. And obviously the systems presented bring the additional bonus of the trees and obviously particularly sort of leguminous trees, pots, et cetera, being a very important dry season resource. Overall, if you look at climate change issues these type of systems will allow us to feed animals better. That's the major thing we can do to mitigate methane production. We will not be able to do miracles there, but if we increase production by getting a bit better base diet of these resources which are there plus the type of things of the legumes and some grain byproducts of the additional production, we think you can significantly increase production per animal without getting to the point where you're feeding them grains directly but reducing thus the amount of methane produced per kilo of output. That should allow to sort of reduce the total impact, potentially even reduce animal numbers by having more intensively found animals in those systems. The other side of it is obviously that the trees will, as Dennis has shown, secure carbon both underground and above ground. So as I said, the biomass is absolutely critical. This is some sort of simulation analysis we've done in terms of understanding how much energy is available for the last of a unit per day from cereals and sort of 40 to 80 megadoules is about maintenance. So you see the green colors, particularly striking is obviously look at China. There's an enormous amount of crop byproducts there which are not being used because they don't have that much of the ruminant population while other parts are using it obviously much more efficiently. But then we look at what happened to 2030, the percentage changes. And we do see, for example, that in Asia, all the foreign casaras, ruminant production is going to increase, the amount of energy from straw and homes is decreasing. But very much in Africa, good parts of it, the assumption is we're going to produce more cereals, we're going to have more of that. It's an absolutely key resource in terms of developing this. So these are a few comments I wanted to make and we just stress again, as I said, livestock is going to be the motor which is going to bring in the cash into those systems which is then going to allow people to do all sorts of things. We see that everywhere the cereals provide, sustain the family, the animals are the cash source. There's a lot of potential to use these systems to reduce CO2 in terms of output by mitigating on the one hand by producing less methane per kilo of output and also by fixing carbon. The final point I want to leave with you is a lot of these techniques are there. I mean, we have the materials which are better in global purpose terms. We have the trees, we have a number of interventions. The real challenge, I think, is how can we really put that all together? Thank you very much.