 Sure Welcome everybody to NFA or not financial advice live. I am joined as ever guy from coin bureau and then from any of the cryptoverse Gentlemen, welcome back to the show. This is our 20 steve is our 26th episode. Wow. Wow Yeah, that's great. Gosh. It's because we're fast becoming an institution Institution hopefully we can get past this Whatever this downfunk that we're in so today we've got some interesting questions We're gonna kind of burn through them and then we're gonna bring on a special guest to talk specifically about CBDC So the first thing we'll talk about inflation inflation is down Question though is how many rate hikes? What's the probability of recession coming in and then I want to take a look at Dixie The the DXY because it seems like whenever the Dixie goes strong Then Bitcoin goes down and then and the inverse is true However, Dixie is coming into like it's over one year low and yet Bitcoin really hasn't rallied. So the question is why Next one is this a bull run or not and then we're gonna talk about CBDCs Especially I need to get a guy your opinion on this one because you guys put out two fantastic videos recently So first things first I'll start with Ben Inflation is down How many rate hikes and the reason we talked about this is because there was this tweet from this guy And he talks about how the CPI of course is 3% expect a 3.1. So it's down course CPI 4.8 And then also this guy did a CPI report on the same subject And we can see that even though, you know, we we think that everything is awful if we zoom out We can see that there's some good things happening I think Jerome Powell is doing his job and this is from white charts You can see the US inflation rate in July 2022 We're almost almost 9% now. We're down just below 3 or 2.97% so the question then is I'll start with you Ben Rate hikes, so we take a look at the CME group. I mean, it looks like it's a foregone conclusion that in the July meeting It looks like we're gonna pump to 525 but after that People don't believe we're gonna do anything else. So What do you got Ben? Yeah, that person you were showing earlier Talking about inflation. I wouldn't listen too closely to him Yeah, so at least if you I mean if you look at inflation Year-over-year if you can I can show my screen here We can see that it's actually coming down quite quickly, right? And this is actually down to two three about three percent or so year-over-year Which is obviously we've made quite a bit of progress here and that's what we want to see If you look at a monthly change on inflation year-over-year, you can see that actually or sorry Yeah, just a monthly change you can see that it went down negative 1.0 4% negative 1.0 4% I'm sort of speculating that this might be the quickest it descends It's not to say that it can't keep going down But some of the base effects that were once, you know Very helpful for inflation to come back down or no longer going to be there Like things like oil, you know, they it peaked out back in June of 2022 And so when you measure it out, you know, you're looking at it being down 44 or 45 percent over the last year But if you measure it from say, you know, like July until this July, it's down only like 29 percent Which is still I mean it's not even that right? It's actually like down 21 percent or so So some of the things that have helped bring inflation down are no longer going to contribute as much From here on out, right? So over the next few months, it means that it'll be harder to You know to actually continue this same pace of descent So I would I would actually maybe speculate that we could spend a little bit of time in that 3% area If you actually roll back the clock of the 1970s when we had our first little run of inflation It actually bottomed out at 3% in July So But but I will say this though I am not of the opinion that we're going to see like a rapid move back up an inflation like right See if you see like in 1974 inflation came soaring back much higher than the first peak. I Don't think that's actually going to happen this time Because what I think is happening is I think the Fed, you know Powell has said so many times They don't want to repeat the mistakes That they made back then and that's going from QE to QT You know, just you know rate hike to rate cuts rate hike to rate cuts Which is why I think they're going to go higher for longer, right? And that's I mean that's one of the reasons why you see as you showed right like CME group here is still predicting another 25 basis point rate hike Why are they still predicting another 25 basis point rate hike when you have you know the inflation chart looking like this? I think the reason of course is if you look at core inflation, it still is relatively elevated I mean, it's been it's been at around 5% for the duration of this year It's only recently put in I think below 5% at 4.86% if you were to go look at inflation Contributions or so if you were to go look at one of their preferred measures say core PCE Year over year. It looks very similar, right? I mean it hasn't really butched a whole lot this year And so I think that's one of the reasons why the Fed is still likely going to raise I think that they view the risk to inflation As more substantial right now Then the risk to the labor market because again, they have a dual mandate So as long as the labor market remains hot like it has been I think it's pretty clear cut that they're at least going to stay where they are if not raise another 25 basis points And one other thing regarding inflation that might be somewhat interesting to look at is you can actually break it down by category And it like so like this is what it looks like if you just look at say like headline inflation But if you break it down by category, you can see that food and beverages Is coming down relatively quickly, right? I mean the thing is is it's at 5.67 percent. I mean prices are still going up There's not going up as they were a year ago If you if you look at housing It's coming down finally remember it was sticky for a long time up here But it is finally starting to make that move you can look at apparel has been somewhat sticky You could look at transportation which interestingly is deflationary right now It's not disinflationary. It's deflationary, right? It's prices are going negative Medical care is all is almost deflationary. That's weird. Yeah, it's only up point one three one percent Year-over-year, so it's not even that far away from being deflationary But again, it also bottomed out in July of 2021 Before it I don't know what's going on with July, but it seems to be a sort of a pivot point on inflation Recreation coming down a little bit and then education and communication have come down some so I mean all in all I I think that inflation is heading in the right direction But as you can see there are still some categories that remain relatively sticky and core PCE core CPI are still very Elevated and so we're likely just gonna see another 25 basis point rate hike In a couple of weeks that might mark the end of it because I'm guessing if they do 25 in July They'll probably skip at the September meeting and then that would get them all the way out until November. I think Let me just double-check that right so yeah September and then November So this could I mean this could be the last rate hike if if inflation can can can continue to come down By November if it goes back up or remain sticky due to say the base effects and maybe they would go another 25 But I good chance this is a Yeah That's a good chance, but I will say this and I'll and this will come the next point is that you said it right He said look, I mean even though it's coming down. I mean, we're still increasing inflation is still there This is from true flation and this will lead the guy because right now in true flation has it I mean we have it around 2.97 true flation with their data points 2.47 percent, but I feel bad for these guys The Brits Unfortunately, you guys are getting crushed 11.33 percent. So guy. I mean we can do it But how's it feel like over there and what do you think about the rates? Yeah, I think well in terms certainly comparing to to what's happening in in the UK I mean you really got a as Ben said you've really got to hand it to To Jerome Powell and co. You know they said they said this is what they were gonna do and they've they've done it Well, they haven't done it, but they you know, they're headed in the right direction They're headed towards that 2% figure They've made enormous progress on it the rate hikes have worked and they've managed not to break anything You know, it was it just just before last week's live stream that the the jobless the job figures came in and it added US had added half a million jobs Yeah, I was crazy just just extraordinary. Yeah, just extraordinary So you've really got to take your hat off to them so far so good in terms of the US Unfortunately, it's yeah, it's not so good in in Britain. I think we were we were a little slower out of the gates I mean There's a sense that we're always just kind of waiting to see what what the US does and then sort of obediently follow suit, so I think you've got to take that but Yeah, much as it pains me to say that but I'm blaming. Yeah, I mean the UK is in is Facing some, you know, some some fairly sort of some fairly kind of big problems Like it's a hot potato that I don't want to sort of grasp too tightly But you know, Brexit is still kind of a big thing, you know I don't think there are all that many people now Who are gonna argue with the fact that it has had a negative effect on the UK economy It has opened up Possibilities and we're seeing that with with we're potentially seeing that with crypto You know the idea of of the UK becoming a digital assets hub That is something that will you know if it does come to pass that will be something that was made possible in large part by Brexit So I want to sort of I don't want to stray Too far either side of that line But yeah, the UK is is facing has it a lot harder I think then certainly than the US and certainly than a lot of other countries as well UK housing market is also Yeah, not good because that's you know, that's been that's been one of the surefire investments for for for Brits for many many years now and You know the business with Ray higher rates is just wiping out more and more people So there's a real kind of mortgage time bomb that's now kind of going off in in slow motion. So Yeah, we're basically we're just looking across that. I mean, you know, I'm I'm over here in Dubai, but I'm still sort of I'm still sort of seeing it as a remove You know, whenever I talk to friends in the UK, I keep up with the UK news and yeah, it's it's grim So we sort of cast envious eyes across the pond to where where you guys seem to have a much better handle on it than us Don't don't envious like look we Unfortunately, I wish we could look to you too for for regulatory guidance because you guys pretty much have it hands down Unfortunately, we got a guy named Gary Gensler And that's just neither here nor there. I will say For all those things that are happening bad in UK. I mean on the bright side if we take a look at the Dixie I mean at least itself the Dixie Dollar is showing a little bit of weakness and this will be my next question So it's the lowest since over a year ago. Why is a Bitcoin rally? And the reason I asked this first of all DX Y is at a hundred hundred points one five And that's over a year ago. We take a look over two years. We didn't see this until April of 2022 where it went below or around a hundred to below and the reason I asked this question is because we take a look at The DX Y usually when when the DX Y is has strength then Bitcoin goes down We can see this back in 2013 when Bitcoin this is a poor example I must admit it was $13 when the Dixie DX Y was up at 83 And then of course it went to $1,100 on 2013 when Dixie went down now We take a look at a better one here We are in 2017 when Dixie was the DX Y was high at 102 Bitcoin was down when the DX Y went down to 90 went up to almost 20,000 and so on and so forth and of course a better example 2020 DX Y up Bitcoin down so on and so forth. So the question I have first of all I'm sure it's nice that fixed the dollars and so strong But guy any interpretation as to why DX Y is getting so is so weak right now that we see it I mean, I think it's I think it's partly to do with I mean that diagram that you that diagram that you that you Flagged up a moment ago, you know the DX Y basket is composed in to a very large extent with with euros and and pounds now both the The ECB and the Bank of England have been, you know, super hawkish recently out of out of necessity So that I think is kind of you know, the euro and the pound are both kind of pretty strong at the moment So I think that's that's kind of weighing on on the dollar itself in terms of In terms of other currencies, I mean the dollar is doing performing pretty well, especially against the likes of the The you are and I mean, I think the you are and is close to a Multi-year low against the the dollar of our if I remember rightly, so I mean these things are all relative, but Yeah, certainly against certainly against the euro and the pound the dollars the dollar struggling in terms of what that means for You know in terms of why Bitcoin hasn't kind of reacted to that as we you know as we sort of As we were talking about off-air, you know, I guess I guess that's because there are still there are still sort of Swords of Damocles kind of dangling a little over over the crypto market to an extent One of the ones that we've been looking into recently is is DCG which I think you can argue probably a lot of people have priced in But I think there is still a lot of potential Selling that could happen as a result of you know DCG having to declare You know quite possibly having to declare bankruptcy or certainly at the very least having to sell assets So there is I think there is a lot of uncertainty over that Obviously uncertainty over regulation in the US as you as you touched on as well So although the dollar is the dollar is weak I think there's there's still just a little bit of uncertainty hovering over Bitcoin in particular and Well Bitcoin and to say nothing of the rest of the crypto market And I think that's kind of been reflected in the fact that it's been sort of trading largely sideways for the past I mean past few weeks now, isn't it? I think that's I think that to me that kind of hints at just a lot of Uncertainty people are people are really just kind of sitting this one out and waiting to see which way it goes Now I can agree that I mean a lot of people are sitting out so like I mean they hear so many I mean there's so many different sides to this and what's gonna happen if you Look look no further than than a channel David Lynn. He's got it seems like one day He's got someone who's like, you know what we're going to the moon. It's gonna be awesome and the next day Everything's gonna collapse and it's gonna be thunderdome. It's gonna be awful So I Check out that channel if you want varying opinions and kind of make your own decision then what do we have with this one? I'll echo what you said with David Lynn. I mean that guy interviews Everyone so I'm like if there's anyone in this world that has a pretty good Like view of what's going on like it would be him because he can maybe put together all the all the doomer views and all The moon boy views and then come to a more realistic outlook But you know, I'd love to talk about the dollar and I will in one second But are you guys reading the headlines that a machine ski got arrested? You've got to be kidding me Yeah, just why don't hey Rob? Why don't you look that up? Why will I talk about the DX why and we pretend to listen me to talk about the DX why? Lutely If you could let if you could show my screen though that way I can at least try to keep people Thing is first of all with Bitcoin it moves discreetly is the thing right? So like when it moves it it moves quickly as you can see like all year, right? Just not an agree right so the thing with with with Bitcoin down the dollar is that yes You're right normally when Bitcoin goes up the dollars going down when the dollar was going up Bitcoin's going down one way to visualize that is that look at this chart. This is the dollar color-coded With Bitcoin risk normally when the dollar is going down again The Bitcoin risk goes higher meaning the Bitcoin price is going higher Bitcoin has been going up You know for the duration of this year, so it's not to say that it hasn't been going up It has been going up it also moves discreetly the question is is is this enough to move Bitcoin even higher One of the interesting things about the dollar is that while normally it does lead to risk assets going higher You can find examples where the dollar sells off and risk assets go down I mean look no further than the dot-com crash right and you can see that the dollar topped out in February of 2002 But the S&P continued down until October of 2002, right? So there are examples in history where the dollar and risk assets go down together I think this is interesting because you have the dollar going down you have the S&P going up But then you have Bitcoin Kind of going sideways and I think some of that is due to other other Factors as well like you look at Bitcoin and net liquidity I do think that crypto is more dependent on on net liquidity than than the stock market and net liquidity has been trending down The last few days it's actually gone up So that that's probably a positive for Bitcoin But it has been trending down really since April and since April Bitcoin hasn't really broken out And so I think you could you could blame some of the reason on on net liquidity in general and and you know There's of course other things that you could look at but let's go ahead and stop pretending and let's talk about Alex Way to read the room then that was fantastic so breaking news Looks like everybody's favorites felon has finally been arrested and this is what this was from coin desk And they said it's a developing story. We don't know exactly why it is there's been a lot much a lawsuit Only you can say is that the SEC accused Celsius and the firm accused the firm machinsky now, okay of securities fraud and lawsuit file Thursday Bloomberg Probably that's they may also face a lawsuit in the CFTC, but that's what we have So look to me. It's one of those things where we hear about how people should be arrested there there is some type of Negative connotation with what they did or they there is just flat out illegal or was it just a flat-out Ponzi scheme and the question always becomes is why aren't these people actually arrested why are they walking free and The the answer that that people will usually say as well It's money, you know, it's money and lawyers and I keep them out But you know at some point everything catches up to you doesn't matter how much money that you make take a look Bernie Madoff that guy made tons of money and he had connections all the way through to the SEC and He died in jail So with these types of things I think it can give a little brevity or a little relief to people as they see this and Claim little justice, but again, this would be just just the first part gentlemen thoughts Rob quickly Add this to the title and you'll get a lot more of yours. Oh, this will be yeah I already did that forget it. I was like, don't worry about Ben and guy old news This is what's going on. So I get those Those those scrubs. Yeah Does this mean that Alex Mishinsky is not the special guest? No, I mean, well, I mean I could but it's hard to get Wi-Fi in prison. I mean, trust me So on this one, Alex Mishinsky is not the special guest But the person we're bringing on is gonna have a lot to say about Alex Mishinsky and CBDCs so I Feel like I'm glad for the people that got screwed over that That would send messages and say hey, I put my entire life savings into this, you know I put they they said this was actually like a savings account That's how they market it as and it wasn't a savings account. It was a an obliteration account so I feel happy for all those people and You know, hopefully this is one more step into what tribution So I don't know if we want to say anything more about that I'll wait for the special guest to come on. But if you guys want to say something, let me know if not Let's talk about this Is this a bull run? I mean, I guess all I'll all I'll say is I think you know For Celsius creditors for people who have been stuck in limbo for so long, you know Alex Mishinsky being arrested is not necessarily going to hasten them being Reunited with their funds, but I mean it must still be it must still be a tonic in a way because I can only imagine Seeing the guy walking. I mean, he was he was appearing in public Wasn't he was I've seen footage of him at NFT in New York that must that you know That cannot be a nice thing to have to see to see this schmuck walking around Waste, you know, so I'm I think that you know I'm glad for Celsius creditors on that score and you know, it won't it won't necessarily heal all wounds But you know, that must be that must be a great relief to a great many people Yeah, exactly. And here we'd I mean when I saw that was like And here and I'll pass we'd say we'd say get away of us. I can't believe this guy can do that But here he is. All right, everybody. So I'll we'll do a follow-up on the machine ski thing. It's a breaking story, but he is arrested And let's move on. So let's talk about the bull run. Is this a bull run? That's that's the question I gotta tell you like You want to take a look at it I it kind of feels like a PTSD thing it seems like we're never gonna get around this but What is this a bull run? Are we in it? Are we out of the bear market? and the reason why I asked this question is we have to first define what a bull market is and There's some criteria as you take a look at there's a sustained increase in broad market indices That's up to 20% I always feel like since our market moves a little bit faster I would say like an increase of 40% investor confidence is high and there's a strong National economy and if we take a look if you take a look at just Bitcoin in general over the last Let's see here Zero one zero one I mean we started this year at 16 6 we're up 80% Now the other parts the other all coins has been has pointed out a couple of times They are bleeding pretty pretty badly against Bitcoin and they are down massively from their all-time eyes, but like if you need to take a look at it Is there a metric you can use to track that I? Don't know, but I gotta I what I'd like to do is find a video of someone who talks about it I mean it's just it's just scarce doobies and that's so like and then we take a look at Solana I mean just an example. I think Do it right? We started at $110 and now we're at 22 so we've doubled I know like from the day-to-day got a lord. It's boring, right? But I mean this is where we are so we have to take a look at like how we doing as far as like I mean just like the GDP and There's this website You know the cryptiverse and you can get 10% off every month or for the first month I should say GDP. I mean we've had a little bit of a Breakdown in 2020, but we seem to be doing pretty good and then as far as like indices. I mean 20% increase I wouldn't say that's that's true as far as like the last six months We started for the S&P 500 around 4,000 now. We're at 44 so roughly 10% Dow Jones is relatively flat But again in bull markets, just remember if that's what it is I'm not saying it is but even in bull markets. You'll see that there are you know peaks peaks and troughs peaks and valleys and You know, it's not like a straight up into the right So gentlemen, what do you think? I'll start with we just left out with the guy then. What do you think about this one? Yeah, so I mean I guess when you talk about is it a bull market? I guess for what if I If I guess if I can show my screen again I mean one of the things that we can track right is is yield curve inversion But this is an interesting chart It shows the S&P ROI too low after the two-year inverts the 10-year and a lot of times the market can rally for a year or more I'll hit usually it eventually rolls over is the thing Sometime when the yield curve un-inverts sometimes even beforehand right and you can look at it with a three-month as well I mean actually if you look at it with a three-month that it actually looks so far like we're most Tracking the other financial crisis Right right But I guess the point is is like you know It's always possible that this time could be different and the yield curve inversion does not forecast a Future recession right like it's always possible that that's the case But it would have to mean that this time is different right and and so I guess it it's you know the It's on investors to figure out You know how much weight do they want to put into that like do they think that the Fed will stay hawkish long enough to Make the labor market move or will the Fed lay off before the labor market starts to show weakness And I mean I guess it's anyone's guess right it's it's hard to know You know if you know when thinking about whether it's a bull market or not You know if this is a bull market, it's a pretty pathetic bull market for the awkward market I mean we true it's funny because I feel like crypto Twitter is is always so bullish on our coins And I come over to the total three chart and we just three red months in a row, you know And I'm just I think to myself. I'm like well has had have we ever been in a bull market where total three You know had three months red in a row and you can't really see times when that occurred I mean the most similar time that total three had three months in a row was either in say like A bear market or in sort of the the pre-having year right where you go half up and half down with Bitcoin Is probably the the other best example where total three also topped out around halfway through the year So I think that this is more similar to this than it is to anything over here because again if if the market has been so bullish then why is total three Unable to even get above it's November 2022 high like think about that like Bitcoin surpassed November 2022 high long ago, but the altcoin market hasn't even managed to break through that Pretty pathetic when you think about it. I mean like again like looking at the Bitcoin chart it broke through it Long ago. Here's another thing like so global net liquidity Every prior high for Bitcoin also corresponded to new highs on global net liquidity Right as you can see but right now. We're not really seeing global net liquidity go up in a sustained way I mean it has bounced here over the last week, but the ECB You know just lowered their balance sheet by quite a bit the feds gonna keep lowering their balance sheet so on and so forth I guess the biggest question is what happens out of China and Japan I mean are they gonna are they gonna expand some more and and and sort of lead to dueling? You know monetary policy so that you know the the West is trying to reduce inflation while the East is just basically printing money and And saying well, you know what we don't really care I don't know but what you can see is that normally when Bitcoin's putting in new highs it also Corresponds to new highs and global net liquidity and I think we'll eventually see new highs in global net liquidity I just don't think it's going to occur this year, you know It could occur next year it could occur the year after that I don't think it's going to occur next year or this year and the last thing I'll say is if you look at year-to-date ROI For Bitcoin specifically like if you're talking about Bitcoin Yeah It's actually still tracking the average of 2015 and 2019 rice like 2015 year 2019 is up here and then the average is right here and it still continues to track that so you can call it what you want to I'm still thinking it's it's about a half half a year where we go half up and and half down meaning like About half the year is green half the year is red if if Bitcoin is is still rallying Come September then clearly that view is wrong Right. If you know if it doesn't I mean in order for it to go half up and half down it has to roll over at some point, right? I like at some point within the next like four to eight weeks I would think that it has to roll over otherwise that thesis we would say is wrong. I think And again, I mean from a seasonality perspective. This is often during the pre-having year Where Bitcoin starts to roll over? I mean it has shown some renewed strength around this time Actually, if you look at if you look at 2015 it was basically on this day That it found its local top before going into a double bottom Yeah, if you look at if you look at 2019 it had already topped out a month or two ago But it had a sort of a month ago But then had a double top in July and then if you look at 2011 it topped out You know back in back in June so you know as far as I can tell this is more so just a rotation of all coins to Bitcoin and That's why the Bitcoin dominance is going up. This is the the dominance excluding stable coins Yeah, I don't know. Yeah, it's a new metric, but It's been going up since 2022 started, you know This is again dominance excluding stables up since 2022 started and so I think it's still just the rotation of all coins to Bitcoin Yeah, it's amazing. It's it's it's it feels good because like I mean it's it kind of validates that those four-year cycles We talked about like those reset years 2012 having all-time-high-dip reset, right? That was 20 and then of course 2016 having all-time-high-dip reset 2019 the reset year we're in the reset year 2020 having all-time-high-dip reset and of course if it's tracking just like 2019 and 2015 It's the same thing happening over and over again, but that would come back to the next question Well, this question to guy guy. Is this a bull run and and I think it's a bigger question Which is does it even matter? You know doesn't even matter if we if we say yes This is a bull run because for some people like hey, I invested in XYZ. It's not a bull run for me Yeah, yeah, good question good question I just want to point out as well that Ben got in his first mention of Bitcoin dominance Exactly halfway through the stream that is bang on that is good bang on halfway It's very very it's almost like it's almost like you planned it that way I think maybe people are playing a sort of game of Bitcoin dominance bingo Yeah, you're not gonna get drunk on this one. I saw I saw a comment about 10 minutes in and someone separate 10 minutes in and Ben hasn't mentioned the dominance Exactly Halfway through it's it's it's it's good going Ben. Maybe that's is that a bullish indicator who knows who knows Dominance is in a bull market. Yeah It'll gradually just sort of creep it creep back until we until he until we go through a whole stream And he never mentions it once that's that's your moment Are we in are we in a bull market? No short answer. I don't think we are but certainly Certainly in terms of Bitcoin, it's It's certainly looking the picture is looking a lot rosier than it was Just even just a few weeks ago, and I think the data that what we were talking about Earlier on in the stream about you know data from the US Inflations going down these interest rate rises are having their effect So it does look like the overall economic picture is beginning to is beginning to look a little better But that said, you know, I I go back to Ben's Very good point, you know, so much of this so much of this strength of Bitcoin is most likely coming from all coins Which is still, you know, if well if it's a bear market, I hate if it's a bull market I hate to see what a bear market looks like Good point. So Obviously, I think in terms of sentiment, I'd be interested if we had time if if Ben has any particular any Charts on that we can have a look at regarding sentiment But I think a lot of the excitement around Bitcoin in the last couple of weeks has obviously been around this ETF application and ETF application spot ETF application by BlackRock and many others And I don't think there's any doubt that if that is if if that is successful Then that will be extremely bullish for Bitcoin in the long run I don't think we'll necessarily see an You know a massive run-up in the price, but certainly Certainly it will be it will be good news for many reasons that most of which we've discussed over the past Over the past couple of episodes of this. So there's definitely a lot of good Sentiments surrounding Bitcoin. I think though, I mean that whole ETF business It I think it's I think it's great. It's potentially great But then the other the downside to it as well is that it could still be rejected And I know opinion is very very divided on this. I know Rob you you think it's still thinking well Perhaps you still think it's very likely to be rejected. I hope I think it's What's that you hope I'm sorry I said I hope not I just think it's yeah, you know, yeah Yeah, I think a lot of people share that view. I think there's a I think there's a stronger chance It'll be Approved rather than rejected But that's that chance of rejection still remains and if that does happen then that will be you know That will be ugly. I think we'll see I think we'll see a dwindling in Bitcoin's price in the wake of that one thing to be One thing to keep a look out of and something that we're something that we would I was discussing in a video that I was filming earlier today about DCG is this lawsuit going on between grayscale and the SEC and you remember I think it was last year grayscale came out and sued the SEC in order to try and turn the Bitcoin trust into an ETF and that lawsuit is obviously still ongoing like so many other SEC lawsuits now if the SEC approves that ETF Black Rocks ETF for example That kind of immediately means is very likely to mean that they lose that case against grayscale Because you know the the precedent will be there for a spot ETF. So, you know in theory, why can't grayscales Bitcoin trust be converted so I just wonder whether the SEC is likely to do that to essentially shoot itself in the foot by approving a spot ETF Before it's got grayscale, you know beaten in court. So Again, I still think there's a I still think there's a strong chance that this ETF will get approved but I think people are putting a lot of Placing a lot of faith in that and all I would say is that you know, you've got to be aware of Of the other side of this. Yes, it gets approved. Hooray if If it gets rejected Watch out Well, well, excellent points. Speaking of misplaced faith, this will go to our next one and I'm gonna start With Guy and I'm gonna bring in our special guest CBDC's Guy you did Talking about ugliness and the things that are happening. This is one of the things that kind of like scares me a little bit CBDC's now you did a couple of videos one which almost had 200,000 Views about the global CBD system and then of course this other monster over here Uh central banks are planning but just give us like a little quick breakdown About what is happening with the CBDC's and I want to bring in our our special guy Sure, I don't want to I don't want to speak too much about I don't want to ramble too much because uh The guest is going to has got a lot more And a lot more intelligent stuff to say about it and I have Referencing that central bankers video that was an extraordinary discussion between Between central bankers. They were really grilled by Sarah Eisen from CNBC, right? And at the end of this grilling she asked them what they are optimistic about and Christine Lagarde of the ECB and Andrew Bailey of the Bank of England They both said the things that make them optimistic are the progress that the ECB and the Bank of England have made on their CBDC Proposals, so that I think was really telling and that it tells me a few things firstly These are actively being worked on, you know, and I've talked about this a lot But make no mistake. CBDCs are coming. That is you can be you can be 99.9 percent certain of that I think the date to keep an eye out for is 2030 because that is the deadline for the UN's Sustainable Development Goals these SDGs. I've talked about them in many many videos. They are In large part not exclusively but in large part the origin of Technologies like CBDCs the digital IDs that CBDCs will need in order to you know In order to work in the way that they the central banks want them to work So and there's so there's still a lot of work to be done on CBDCs But that work is being done. It is still mostly in pilots in the pilot phase There was a headline. I think it was just yesterday that brazil is Piloting its CBDC now um And this is and what was significant about that was they they reverse engineered this code that the Brazilian central bank had posted and They figured they saw that this CBDC will be programmable In that the central bank will be able to move money out of people's accounts It'll be able to freeze people's account. It'll have total control in other words and that is what CBDCs are about they are about government control and Like I say, they're coming very they're coming Within the next few years and I think the thing to watch out for the Trojan horse if you like Is going to be fast payments fast payment systems like for instance fed now, which should be released fairly soon in the united states We've got fast payment systems up and running in many other countries the uk's had had one for for several years now But obviously fast payment systems have a lot to recommend them. They they're fast as the name suggests, but they're convenient Um, they're convenient and easy to use and this is how CBDCs are initially going to be sold. They're going to be sold as a medium of convenience And that is how, you know, that is how I think that the plan is to get them adopted people are going to go Well, this is easy. This is frictionless. Why would I go back to another system? Why would I use anything else? um So they I think that that is the first that is the first kind of stage that is how they will be sold and I think one other thing I'll say before before our guest comes on Is that I think one of the things that's on the side of CBDCs is demographics Because I think cash use in particular is something that older generations Are really the only ones who are kind of clinging on to in any sort of in any sort of numbers because they They're used to cash. They remember they they've used it all their lives They're unwilling to give it up and they're willing to they're willing to fight for it They're willing to fight for its retention and we have seen pushback against CBDC projects for that reason In places like the uk there's been a significant pushback against the uk's plans for a CBDC largely by people who don't want to see cash phased out unfortunately those people who Who fight for cash who want to use cash are are going to die out to put it to put it bluntly And the generations coming through behind them. They're used to you know, they're they're they're used to not having to use cash They won't miss it. They won't care So I think the the apathy of that of those Generations coming after it could be you know, could be a big weapon in in CBDCs Armory if you like Perfect So this was great because you just did a great analogy or a gala synopsis Of why CBDCs can make it now i'm going to bring in someone who can help us how Crypto could actually defeat it and that guy Is simon dicks simon welcome then if they live you are our first guest after 26 episodes welcome to the show Awesome, thanks for having me good to see you Is my mic working we didn't do any test I know look at that you're man. You're really improving because the first time we did a show You're like is this on i'm like that's not on this on this on today My man spot on doing perfect stuff. So look so that that is the big question CBDCs What's the master plan and can crypto defeat because I think you're pretty well versed in this because you were in the traditional finance sector for quite some time You were out there giving speeches and going to universities and talking about the uh, the The simplicity of what bitcoin actually is and how it actually works. So what do you think about this? How can we defeat it because guy made a great point of why it's going to be accepted? Yeah, um, I think guy made most of the the the important points there that this is inevitable It's predictable and it's guaranteed So that that book that I wrote in 2011 gave a roadmap Of the inevitable consequence of fractional reserve banking that it leads to a communist style of organizing a digital currency And I talked about how you would unwind a systemic risk event using a central bank digital currency I just didn't call it the central bank digital currency because the name didn't exist back then Um, but in in answer to what it does think about um, guy said the right words. He said control um a central bank digital currency Is a think about crypto in the middle this general innovation of a blockchain cryptocurrency And we always debate back and forth saying that you know, you've got proof of work proof of stake And you've got these different degrees of centralization and everybody, you know debates There's a bit more centralized control in the development Proof of work is impossible to 51 attack and for over a decade we've been going back and forth with those debates If you think of the two extremes on one side of the extreme you have a central bank digital currency Which is a crypto which may even not have a blockchain You know, you could use cryptographic ways of sending digital currencies And the fastest way and the most controlled is simply a database But a central bank digital currency optimizes that on a global scale Where it can interact with all the different systems around the world and automate every layer of control In order to automate monetary policy automate the execution of fiscal policy universal basic incomes controls where your funds are connected to negative interest rates every type of application You can imagine and then on the other extreme You have this thing that governments would love to shut down That they can only really ban in their own country But if they ban it in their own country They end up on the wrong side of financial history So they might as well just stick it on their central bank balance sheet, which is bitcoin And so you've got these two extremes And everybody every government every company and every individual Has the opportunity to protect themselves by opting out of the cbdc and opting into bitcoin And the the challenge with that is that you have these You know, you have the bitcoin's not so great for spending. So you end up with a bit in your cbdc Because you know, you don't want volatility in paying your rent But a cbdc is going to be very very optimized for spending However, it will cost you your freedom your provices And just like money at a bank right now when you reach a certain net worth Your money at a bank you feel surprised that your bank lets you spend it I've got to send an incredible amount of documentation to my bank My bank is a private bank. They know I own my wealth in bitcoin And I need to show them every single thing that they could possibly want to see about every transaction I've ever made in history just to spend my fiat currency And that's what happens and cbdcs allow that At a very automated scale Eventually probably managed by artificial intelligence powered by quantum computers But eventually that's what cbdcs do And so the only way you can protect yourself Is by owning bitcoin opting out and then in the middle you have these problematic innovations Like stable coins DeFi Which are going to be defined by different countries And so by by Understanding those sit in the middle They're disruptive because most cbdcs are backed by treasuries So they're systemically risky to the banking system to the fractional reserve system Now where cbdcs actually sit is not competing with bitcoin right is competing with banking And so a cbdc is the most disruptive force to a bank because a bank is a private digital currency Every time you they issue a loan or you borrow money They create new digital fiat And it exists in their centralized database And then you can send it through swifts to different countries Or you can send it through their faster payment systems like fed now eventually or ach or faster payments And so the banks get to benefit from what's known as scenery scenery is the the profits from creating money You know governments and central governments benefit from cash. That's why it still exists. They actually have if you look at a A government treasuries balance sheet. They've got something called scenery income Which is the profits from selling their cash To a bank and a bank pays for it with digital currency and puts it in their atn A central bank digital currency is radical radical reform So the banks are going to be the ones that are going to object to it the most and they're only going to adopt it when they go past And so cbdcs are inevitable predictable and guaranteed Because fractional reserve banking is a Ponzi scheme fiat currency is a regulated Ponzi scheme And eventually you can either give up and go back to hard money Or you can just give up on capitalism and return to communist fiat currency And bitcoin then becomes your way of protecting yourself Excellent. So so simon, let me let me just paraphrase you're you're taking a look at this and going Really, it's not crypto that that's that's going to be Affected by what's going on with these cbdcs. It's going to be these small to medium-sized banks That's really going to start to hurt. Is that we're looking at? Yeah 100 percent if you look at this and it's extreme you get the small banks Being gobbled up by the big banks the big banks having a 2008 style level of systemic risk And then the central bank that needs to take on everything in their balance sheet So individuals either need to go deeper into debt to save the fiat currency system or companies or countries Or central banks and then eventually the central bank would take everything on its balance sheet And then this is why I think bitcoin survives The cbdc that becomes the world reserve currency I think is the one that exerts the most level of freedom in a competitive market So if you use draconian cbdc power You will not maintain your world reserve currency status And because bitcoin exists and people have an opportunity to opt out And any country that says let's make it illegal to convert cbdc to bitcoin They will lose some of their world reserve currency status The ones that don't put bitcoin on their balance sheet moving into the You know when they can do that in 2025 Will be the countries that will be losing on the wrong side of these wealth extractions on a global Central bank digital currency world So I have hope for freedom and I don't think you get this global coordinated cbdc back ban at the bank of international settlements in the world economic forum Because they will take these different countries down with it and someone will re-nig in that agreement in a world of geopolitics where Competition among cbdc is the one that will be the next world reserve currency Excellent And this is why we brought you on simon to explain that because the way the guy was talking I was like this is not looking good, but right now if you said it I'm like, hey, I think we're in a pretty positive place So we got about five or seven minutes and we'll take some questions But I gotta ask you the first one. We already went through this, but I don't know if you heard about this, but Our buddy alex Looks like he's not doing so hot and he just got arrested. So this was breaking news just broke Looks like there's gonna be a massive lawsuits filed cftc and the sec. What's your thoughts? Yeah, I was um anyone that was on my twitter feed I was warning everybody that this wouldn't be a good month for alex majinsky. Um, and now the news has broken So for the background robber myself have a bet And we bet that I said that black rock etf will be approved by q1 2024 And rob said it won't and the loser has to wear a t-shirt saying I love majinsky And the reason that's such a big thing is because I'm actually one of the largest individual creditors at top 10 There's a few more institutions at the larger And for the last year I've been working I went to a spoke at guys event and I literally had a queue of Hundreds of people that have all been ripped off by this scam artist And so for the last year I feel very connected to this subject rob because I first broke I was trying to support Celsius in a real a plan of reorganization And I was speaking to majinsky then I found out what had actually happened And the fact that he had lost three billion dollars of client money And it was completely fraudulent and he had exit scammed everybody He was using our money to pump up the price of sell token so that he could sell it otc He borrowed against client bitcoin without disclosing any of the risks He deviated from the model of institutional peer-to-peer trading and he persuaded Hundreds and thousands of pensioners to drain their life savings and retirement accounts In order to put it into what he called safer than a bank because the banks are ripping you off So you we've all been discussing cbdcs, but you know for the last year We've had people commit suicide. We've had pensioners have to return to work We've had people change country because they can't afford in a cost of living crisis And I've been dealing with thousands of these people over the last years It's consumed a whole year of my life and so To see justice served that this scumbag has now been arrested and the justice system takes over It makes a little bit of what everybody has experienced over the next year You know worth it slightly so You know it's been it's a deeply emotional topic for many people because these are people that work their entire life Believed in a lie went to miami looked at him face to face and said is my lifetime saving safe with you And he said yes, and he was withdrawing his money tens of millions out on the platform on the very same day The um a retiree that we just did a fundraiser for um, you know was uh, is uh was actually, you know Sold their house sold everything And look majinsky in the face to ask for it. So It's it's a very emotional moment for a lot of people And it's ironic that we broke the news on this channel And you invited me here not knowing that it would happen and while we're live the news Broke it's pretty crazy. Oh, I knew it and actually Like i'm more the news guy and ben's the one that actually to tell me he goes Hey, I don't know if you knew this but uh, alex got to the rest of us like really I should probably know that So excellent. So everybody so moving forward Hopefully we're we're good things on the horizon And we see a better uh better times moving forward, but uh, Simon thanks for for stopping by the the question that just came up Which I think is a good question and we'll get out of here Is it possible investors are front running the having this cycle? Meaning right now are the people like us kind of getting into it early before That blackrock etf does or does not get approved? We'll see what happens and I will tell you this right. We'll quick Simon. I will happily wear that shirt If if it does get approved. It'll be great for the whole The whole uh industry so gentlemen who wants to take this one? Is it possible investors front run the having this cycle? I know ben thinks that bulls get wrecked ben's or bulls get wrecked and ben you right bulls get wrecked and bears get wrecked What do we think about this one? I'll start with ben we'll go around Anything's possible in financial markets. So I don't think anyone could say definitively whether that happens or not I do we have seen this before. I mean I lived through it in 2019 and in 2015 Where you know the cries for new all-time highs came in the pre-having year And then it it didn't pan out that way Um, and so I mean look could this time be different? Sure, it could be I don't think it's the most likely scenario Um, normally what happens is is people, you know, and and this is why I've said like this is why we focus on the dominance Right if you if you have your crypto portfolio As just being bitcoin heavy It doesn't really matter right because the altcoin market gets wrecked against bitcoin regardless and it it protects your downside While giving you some exposure to the upside Um, but what normally happens is that people in the pre-having year? They watch bitcoin go up and their altcoins get sidelined and the altcoins don't go anywhere And then they chase the altcoin or they they throw their money into altcoins because they think the altcoins will catch up to bitcoin But then the altcoins never do catch up to bitcoin in the pre-having year And then they throw in the towel and they say all right Well, let's just go in on bitcoin and then normally by the time that everyone decides that once they realize that bitcoin Is the king of the cryptiverse. That's when bitcoin pulls back. Um, and that's when it gets everyone wrecked, right? And that's why the pre-having years are so are so brutal. So yeah, I mean like anything's possible I know there's some theories out there by some You know by some analysts who who are who have Credibility that you know, some people say new highs are coming this year Some people say it's gonna happen early next year before the having I tend to lean on the side of highs will come after the having But anything's possible. Yeah, I like this tweet that you put out This is from standard chartered and they said that hey, we're gonna hit 120 000 next year or by the end of 2024 And you said hey just seven months ago. They said it's gonna go to 5 000 So just watch out for those crazy price predictions The reason I put that out is because I saw someone talking about how standard chartered was like a super prestigious organization And how they wouldn't put their name behind bitcoin if they didn't really believe in it And I was just curious like well, what were they saying? Back in december like all right. Well, they were putting out the opposite price prediction So it's almost like were they back then were they accumulating? And are today are they selling into the high? You know, I don't know. I mean, I really don't know It just it goes to show you how how useless price predictions are Exactly and then guys let me to you the same thing Are we front running or is it just like yeah, this this year is kind of shot. Who knows what you got You can't you just can't move for price predictions these days. Can you they're to everyone's everyone's kind of weighing in on We're weighing in with one It must be it must be proven to to generate Generate a whole lot of clicks. Um No, I don't know to be honest with you. I think uh, I think there's a there's certainly a strong chance Especially if the ETF get approved that I don't think we'll see a new all-time high this year. Definitely not but um Certainly, I think we could finish the year, you know much higher than we are now Um Having said that I think if you just take a longer term outlook, that's the that's the way to do it That's the way you're you know, you you can be much more assured of Of success, you know bitcoin is is a long term is a long term hold So if you're buying and if you're buying now if you're buying later in the year So long as your time frame is is spread over the right time, you'll be fine Exactly, you know who said that pretty eloquently. I mean you did a great job right there guy But there was an interview that you did with this gentleman right here, but you can find his channel There's a link in the description where you talked about the five rules and the different wallets Simon, what do you think about this the same question? Are we front running and is it just a good idea just to stack sats Well, it's a good idea just to stack sats, but yeah front running Is I say bitcoin is the only asset class I've ever come across where retail got to front run institutions institutions got to front run sovereigns and sovereigns got to front run central banks And that has really been the story, but if you want to bring that down into a short term time frame I think you're playing with the big boys now. So you're you know, we've had Do do exchanges manipulate prices? Absolutely. They've got the information flow. They manipulate it Is that moving more regulated where you can have more sophisticated manipulation? Absolutely Traditional financial markets are manipulated by hedge funds Central banks governments and it's all legal and regulated. So we're just moving to a new phase. You will get wrecked Trading the short the short term cycles trying to get it trying to get that one I do believe personally. I I I don't really care if I'm wrong or right. We would meet We would reach all new all-time highs next year But yeah, the the idea is if you can train your mindset and I tried to cover it in the video where the guy did a great interview Um, I think, you know, it's uh when the price goes down If you value your wealth in bitcoin then you end up with more bitcoin and you're excited for the price coming down When the price goes up you can look at your fiat worth and you can get excited That your fiat net worth is going up, but you're getting less bitcoin every time you buy it So it's a bit of a how to be happy all the time no matter what the price is doing Perfect I gotta tell you this was I want to thank everybody for for stopping by for this episode. This was Really great power pack a lot of information and if you know what right as I say this it's going to be one hour on the dot So gentlemen, thank you so much for stopping by again You can find links to guy ben and simon's channel links in the description But gentlemen, thanks so much for stopping by and everybody will see you on the next one See you See everyone