 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Tough tests lie ahead for some of the nation's best college football teams this weekend We've got Texas taking on Oklahoma and the Red River rivalry We've also got Kentucky taking on Georgia and Notre Dame against Louisville some very fun games on tap for this weekend across college Football with undefeated scoring off we're gonna break down those games outline where Ed's value or Ed's model sees value for this We can get you ready for it should be another fun week in college football This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as I am every Wednesday by Dr Ed Feng you can find his work the powering comment check him out on Twitter at the powering and Ed Fun week college football this past week another one coming up on Saturday. How you doing today? I'm doing really well. I'm really excited to see if Michigan's game last week was a fluke Which I missed or whether that was really the the real Michigan they have kind of a similar road game to to a non-division opponent, although I think we get rid of that soon and Yeah, we'll see and then and then Texas Oklahoma should be fantastic I'm looking forward to that as well It's always a fun game, but I think when the stakes are as high as they are It's a thrill now the Michigan game you're referencing last week You had the over in that game over pit in like I think middle of the third quarter So that was pretty nice without much hope from Nebraska too. So correct Correct this week though, Michigan on the road taking on Minnesota Minnesota They're a very hard team for me to figure because the first half against Northwest and they played well They played better the second half against Louisville, but Kevin uneven spot there. So Michigan 19 and a half point favorites in that game. I Feel like Michigan just kind of keeps on passing tests at least that's my my thought on it so far What have you seen from them thus far? Well, I mean, I thought they were kind of bad the first couple of games So, yeah, they did they did not Kind of live up to expectations like they did in those early warm-up games last year where they you know They just destroyed people So there can be a lot of reasons for that Sometimes you're just not playing that well like a Georgia team Which we'll talk about soon too. So Yeah, I don't know. We'll see I still think they have a lot of quiet I I definitely still have a lot of question marks about Michigan and honestly like every single team. Yeah, and That could play into the futures market. We'll talk about Georgia specifically with that Kentucky game But also more broadly with the national championship deciding whether the doors open right now for someone else step in there Check out See if there's any value in the national championship futures and much more all here in just one second First a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast coming up later on today Tom Vecchio will preview Thursday night scheme between the Bears and the Commanders Not it the most exciting game, but hey if you got some bets down for it, it could be I'll be previewing that for primetime Tom for Thursday night football here on the podcast feed and on fangirl TV Plus and beginning this week Probably with us twice per week for Thursday night football and for Sunday night football That'll be up on Saturday morning to get all those shows as they are posted Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Now we also have a regular shows up on the Fandall YouTube page and on a fan dual TV plus Snap into action this NFL season with Fandall America's number one sportsbook right now new customers can get $200 and bonus bets Guaranteed when you place a $5 bet that's $200 in bonus bets win or lose if you've been thinking about joining Fandall There is no better time to get in on the action the app is so easy to use There's a wide range of betting options through spreads player props totals and more so visit fandall.com and kick off the NFL season Fandall official partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and president select states Fandall is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Dark Casino LLC first online real money wager Only $10 first deposit required bonus issued as non-latchrable bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat Restricts his applies see terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1-800 gambler Or visit fandall.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee and Virginia Call 1-800 accept or text next step to 5334 to an Arizona 1-888-789-7777 Or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut 1-800-9 with it in Indiana 1-800-522-4700 of his a KS gambling health.com in Kansas 1-800-777-770 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling health.org in Maryland 1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia 1-800-522-4700 in Wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or call 800-327-5050 for 247 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8 hope and why or text hope and why in New York Now Ed you talked last week here on the show about how Georgia had not lived up so far this year and then they went out there and had to scramble to beat Auburn on the road They're still the favorites to win the national championship at three-to-one at Fandall sportsbook. So We've seen some shakiness from Georgia Does that lead to value elsewhere in this market for you Ed based on the current odds? I Think potentially I mean I haven't bet anything But what's interesting about my best set of numbers that I keep from members of the site is that the top five teams are within a point of each other It's the four teams that you would expect from The preseason so Georgia Michigan Ohio State, Alabama and then Texas has got into that conversation as well And you know, I think I think it's pretty interesting at this point Alabama still up there despite their quarterback issues. I don't see them on the top six of the SPF FBS championship odds. So maybe that is whoa 25 to 1 they were 52 weeks ago Yeah So at least they picked a quarterback. So maybe that you know Goes from 50 to 1 to 25 to 1. I mean my numbers would say that, you know, Alabama is Maybe a value there, but it it's I don't know I don't I don't think there really are top teams You know, I talked about those five teams that are within a point of each other And then and then you have like the Pac-12 schools that are also in the top 10 that actually have the good quarterbacks You know the Washington's and and USC's and in my opinion to a less lesser extent Oregon One of those, you know, I mean Michael Panix, Caleb Williams one of those guys probably gonna be the top pick in the next draft Traditionally a team that wins the national title has a guy that is the top pick in the next draft Not always but So, I don't know. I mean, I still don't trust USC's defense So a lot of question marks, I think is wide open, which is kind of fun. It's Not anywhere near, you know, those what five years in a row that it was Alabama or Clemson Yeah, kind of kind of years, right? So it's kind of fun. And yeah, let's hope it continues to be fun Yeah with the USC thing. I think that last week against Colorado was super emblematic of their their season where the offense shreds Caleb Williams is Throwing six touchdowns stuff like that because but then because the defense is brutal They let Colorado back in the game and actually almost make that very competitive. So Can they walk that tight walk that that tight rope the entire year? Maybe because Caleb Williams is very good and can erase a lot of sins on the defense aside but that's a That's a lot of game stream together where the defense that shaky where you need the offense to be perfect every single week And that's a pretty tough ask So I think Alabama 25 to 1 at is interesting at least given that if there's a lack of separation that could mean that we see Georgia Falter at some point. I know the SEC is not as stellar this year as it has been in the years past. So a Decreased Georgia may not mean may not lead to a loss at any point But I still do feel like there's more Ambiguity more uncertainty here, which means that taking a Swipe at a longer shot is not as out of bounds as a mother otherwise. Maybe Yeah, I think I can talk myself into Alabama here just kind of looking at these odds they they are up there in the numbers and It is a wide open year. So so why not a team like Alabama? Why not? All right Let's talk about some games here for week number six beginning with that very fun game between Oklahoma and Texas We're right now. Texas is a six and a half point favorite on a neutral site total is sixty and a half for this game Ed And it's been a fun year so far both these teams are undefeated. How do you see this game playing out of Texas against Oklahoma? Yeah, you know my numbers had Texas by two and a half Honestly, I think my my numbers should be like a little bit too high on Texas simply because they played Kansas last week without Jalen Daniels That game got out of hand I don't know if I missed them on the the injury report or whether the back thing just kind of came up out of nowhere But he didn't play and you know, he's a Heisman level quarterback, right? So that that's definitely going to make a difference in this game So my number should be overestimating Texas, but they only have them by two and a half here I also wonder, you know, how much this is being influenced by the fact that Texas won 49 and nothing last year in the same game So But I also have this feeling that Texas might be really good and the legitimate national title contender as well You know, Oklahoma is a team that I think kind of came I don't know if they were underrated in the markets, but it was a team that you know didn't have a winning record last year But was there oh and five and one score games When you looked under the cover they were a lot better They are up more from the preseason this season than than even Texas so it's kind of balanced by you know this this idea that Texas might really be good and then also You know looking back at what Bill Connelly was saying in the preseason that Oklahoma might need to know the year to get Where they want to go It's kind of stay away from me. I mean the numbers definitely like Oklahoma. I can definitely see you go in that way But I'm not that neck What's the key hold up for you in taking the value even though you're showing a good amount of value there? Is it more the Texas side where you think they may legitimately be very good or is it more so? Not being convinced in Oklahoma given the fact that they've had a lot of change over and Brent Venable still trying to get Everything fully integrated there Is it the Texas side of the Oklahoma side that causes the hold up for you? I think a little bit of both. I mean when you look at who Oklahoma plays it's not exactly You know, they haven't really beaten anyone that use you would say hey That's a really good win, right? So I mean, this is there. There's definitely stepping up in competition I'm not sure that really matters because if you're obliterating bad teams like that's usually a good sign Although that's certainly not what I said about Duke last week right so You know, it is a good sign that you you are obliterating bad competition So I think it's a little bit of both. I just feel I I Don't know exactly how good Oklahoma is and I think Texas could be really good Okay, so even though Ed shows value here on Oklahoma, it is a stay-away for him with Oklahoma plus six and a half Let's talk about the other big battle between undefeated in a week number six in college football That is Kentucky going to Georgia to take on the Bulldogs Georgia right now 14 and a half point favorite total for this game is 47 and a half now we talked about Georgia standing relative to the other heavyweights earlier on but Facing Kentucky is not the same as talking about national championship markets Even though they are they aren't defeated. So can Kentucky cover a two touchdown spread in this specific game? No Don't think Kentucky is very good. I think this is a great by low spot on Georgia You know, you really talked about how they struggled last week against Auburn. They needed a late touchdown To win that game But it you know, it's kind of nice when you have a guy in Brock Bowers Who's yeah, probably the best player in the country, which you don't often say about a tight end But he's been a beast ever since he stepped foot on campus there There's a lot of kind of really ugly things in that game too They gave up almost six yards per carry to an Auburn team that is rebuilding And obviously explosive plays can play a role there But you know, Auburn also had a 45% success rate on the ground That's higher than the the college football average about 42 and a half That that is certainly concerning and no one's gonna say that Georgia is playing up to Georgia standards, right? I do think the kind of like the underlying fundamentals are a little bit better on them When I look at adjusted success rate, they're 13th on offense 17th on defense It's not Georgia standards, but it's it's also not awful either and I just feel like you know, they can they can turn it on at any point and start playing like Georgia and I also really like, you know, it doesn't look like they have any real injuries They're you know, probably their second Most targeted person when he's healthy lad McConkey came back for his first game against Auburn So having him getting fully back into the flow of this is is also encouraging and then Kentucky Kentucky He's just not a very good football team. I mean I talked about the actually I didn't talk about them on the show last week I Like Florida a lot last week against Tucky Kentucky and Kentucky made me look bad because they won that game going away But you know, a lot of that was explosive plays Ray Davis had 280 rushing yards 75 yard touchdown run and And not a lot of else, you know, they have Devon leary at the quarterback position the transfer over for NC State This guy's been terrible up there on the ball for over two seasons now I I don't think Kentucky can break big plays against Georgia's defense partially because big plays have a huge random element Partially because Georgia's defense is elite. I don't think Kentucky is very good Preseason I would have made this more than three touchdowns Right now I have it at about 16 and a half 17. I think there's a lot of value here. I would you know, I mean you could have gotten 14 earlier in the week I still take 14 and a half. I think I think Georgia. I think Georgia can run away with us So as I had to mention Georgia minus 14 and a half right now if they into a sports book the minus 14 and a half is minus 105 at Fandell for this one I think the the encouraging thing Ed if we're talking about the flip side of Georgia We talked about being skeptical of them for the national championship But it kind of goes back to what you said with the Auburn game where when they needed to push They had a guy they could lean on that entire time and he's a legitimate needle mover So the counterpoint would be when Georgia's in tough games They may be okay because when they put the pedal to the metal they can still be Really really scary. So obviously that that may not matter for Kentucky because they may not need to like go Fully in to leaning on Brock Bowers, but like I think that that from a broader perspective was somewhat encouraging I know it's like a bad game overall, but it's encouraging to me to see that when they had turned it on they still could Yeah, I mean anything is like if you want them to cover this like ideally you want them to turn it on When right game kicks off, right? And and that's what you really I mean That's what I think we'll see from Georgia, right? Like they're like we haven't really been playing up to our level Let's let's let's go ahead and do this and and let's start putting away teams in the first half Like we're used to doing in these types of games against teams with not really the same level of talent Yeah, exactly. Okay. So that is on Georgia minus 14 and a half Which is minus 105 right now at Fandell taking on Kentucky Final game. We are going to discuss for today is Notre Dame at Louisville right now Notre Dame is a six and a half point favorite total in this game is 54 and a half is up a point from where it was yesterday Notre Dame has been very good financially to you Ed so far this year got the the cover last week luckily Against Duke got the cover against in the opener as well over in Ireland Can they do it again Ed or does Louisville keep this one close? Yeah, no, I mean, it's interesting. You know, I have this Notre Dame by five so not really showing any value Honestly on either side You know Notre Dame has been pretty good on both sides of the ball definitely team. I believe in They're missing their kicker. So that's certainly not a good thing. And then, you know Louisville is is In the first year under Jeff Brown, they've been pretty good. You know, he's brought in a ton of transfers You know, they I think I think they're an okay team, you know, they were 39th preseason. They've moved up since then in my numbers But I don't know. I think the market is basically pretty good on this one I wouldn't bet it either way. I believe in Notre Dame, but that looks like just a little bit too high of a number Were you watching able to watch the end of the Duke game last week? I did I did catch that because it looks like it looked like the cover was Definitely not going to happen just because of the game state right kick a field goal towards the end of that game But uh, yeah, I'll take it. Yeah, I I heard market streaming talking after the game like yeah If a steam, you know, we would have encouraged him to go down if we could have and I was like, thank god you didn't because Like and like I get it because I think the counterpoint to saying, okay You should have gone down to kick the field goal The counterpoint is like you really want to trust the kicking game in its current state to win you that game Or do you want the guaranteed points? So? I think that even though Like even though it seems a bit fluky that they scored that touchdown I do think that like all things considered that probably was the right move to to score the touchdown that scenario Right, and I think there's probably a difference, you know In college versus pros, right? I mean we all A much different scenario, but you know patch from the home is taking the slide Yeah, was the end of the game versus the Jets which, you know Call some winners become losers Call some losers become winners But uh, yeah, so I I think uh I don't know. I'm glad you went in so yeah take the win I had over 41 and a half for that Jets That Jets chiefs game, so I was chilling I thought it was a great game personally got to They made it closer than it should have been because it was pretty we got over 43 real fast, but over 40 real fast, but Still, uh, I was okay with the way things transpired at the end of that one That is all that we have here for today and for this week on the college football side of things But fear not Ed is back with us once again tomorrow to break down week number five in the nfl Which should be a fun one once again at if people are looking for the Numbers you referenced in the college football side of things. Where can they get to those? Yeah, I mean you can always get a sample of my stuff in my free email newsletter. Check that out at the power rank dot com The numbers I talk about on the show are saved for paying members of the site You can check out more about that at the power rank dot net nfl predictions college football predictions and uh, I've been doing nfl interception props this year as well So check that out At the power rank dot net Alrighty, that's the power rank net for those the power rank dot com for the general site The football analytics show for Ed's football podcast and on twitter at the power rank I am on twitter at gymsonus j i m s a n n e s We are once again back with you tomorrow talking week number five in the nfl Don't forget to check out primetime tom for thursday night football as well right here in the covering the spread podcast feed this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network