 Thank you. I'm presenting what happens poverty in Ethiopia over the last decades in the changing economic landscape setting. I did this with David. The motivation is that, as explained from the chair, since 1995 the Ethiopian economy has experienced economic growth and the structural improvement has been seen. And then we want to see what happened to poverty under this changing economic landscape. But measuring poverty is complicated because of certain conceptual and practical issues. Consistency and the specificity of poverty estimates across time and space is challenging. Particularly in Ethiopia different commodity list and recall period over time that affects the level of reported consumption has happened. Specificity of poverty lines across space is also important. So this is important particular for Ethiopia where the country is large with 80 million population around 80 ethnic groups and with diverse agroecological setting. So the objective of this paper is to analyze the poverty, the monetary poverty supported with non-monetary side of poverty in Ethiopia between 2000 and 2001. We're using the National Representative Household Exponential Service and applying the toolkit developed by Ahmad and Simler 2010, the utility consistent approach to calculating the cost of basic poverty lines. And we put the monetary poverty measures in context by comparing them with other macro economic indicators and non-economic indicators. I shouldn't dwell too much on methodology which is a utility constant approach which involves calculating the regional specific poverty line and that ensures each consumption bundle in the region specific cost of basic need poverty line which represents the same level of utility consistency and we employ a maximum entropy approach to reconcile cases where the consistency tests are failed by using prior information to support giving support values for the maximum entropy starting point. When we analyze poverty we need to choose three things. One is what is the welfare indicator and what is the poverty line and what are the measure of poverty that we use. In our case we use the monetary measure of poverty using per capita household consumption as an indicator and the household level consumption has been constructed by aggregating into various food and non-food expenditure items. We estimated the poverty line using the toolkit prepared by Ahmad and Simler for the 20 special domains in Ethiopia including Addis Ababa and Harari. These are basically urban areas and urban and rural areas of other nine regional states. In total we have 20 special domains. Food poverty line were estimated first anchored to the quality requirement to ensure the specificity for each domain and poverty line is also based on demographic structure and fertility pattern of those special domains. We employ the P-alpha measure of poverty indices to measure the level and changes of poverty. We also employed standard tests of stochastic dominance, the second and third order stochastic dominance. We use the poverty line which serves us also as a cost of living index to map the nominal household consumption to real household consumption using the index constructed from this poverty line and the distribution of real household consumption are then used to conduct dominant tests and the stochastic dominant tests and the measure of inequality. So now the data that we use is a primary data source that was collected in year 2000, 2005 and 2011 from household consumption expenditure survey and also for the non-monetary measure we use a welfare monitoring survey which has more larger sample size than that of the household consumption expenditure survey. The coverage of these three surveys are similar particularly in the special domains, the major urban areas, the rural regions and other urban areas but in our case we merge the urban, the capital cities and other urban areas together and we have urban and rural. The sample size grew from 17,000 to 21,000 and later on in 2011 to 28,000 for the frequency survey periods. The number of food items used in the data collection process has been increasing from survey to survey. They started with 252 items, then 2005 rose to 872 and then in 2010 they aggregate some of them learning from the previous long items and had 653 items. So this is one of also the challenge when we compare poverty across time. Let's first talk about the context of the economy as a whole. There has been a structural change took place in the economy which was led by the Ethiopian government to deliver a strategy of agricultural development led industrialization. With the exception of the first two years in the decade, the real value of agricultural production in the country grew by around 9% per year on average which finally resulted in real agricultural GDP between 2000 and 2000 to be doubled and much of these growth has been driven by the production of cereals which accounts for a three-quarter of the cultivated area. In addition, Ethiopia has implemented productive safety net programs since 2005 which was helping around 8 million people per year for rural poor and this PSNP is largely a public work but with 5% of its budget going to direct support to help the disabled and also lactating mothers. In addition, several infrastructure physical infrastructure building has been done in hydroelectric power, in roads, in telecommunication and other sectors. If we see this is the production of cereals from 2000 to 2010 where we see a large increase in products of maize, wheat, beef and barley and other cereals and according to the information provided by the Ministry of Education and Finance, so the GDP grow from around 100 something to 250 billion and if we see the division between agricultural industry and service, the intention was that the industrial sector grow but it didn't grow too much but what we have seen is the growth in agriculture and in service which surpasses the agriculture in 2000 become largely a service sector economy and if we see the capital GDP per capital GDP on average grew 8% per year and when we come to our actual work we started with the poverty line between 2000 and 2011 the cost of basic need was by around 50,000% per hour there has been various differences among the spatial domain but most of this increase occurred between 2005 and 2010 where the country has faced a serious high rate of inflation throughout the survey period the changes in price of both food and then food items contributed to the overall change of cost of basic needs the non-food cost slightly rose faster in the second half of the decade than the food the food price was higher inflation was higher in the first half and the second was much higher for the non-food on average are compared over the 10 years over time poverty line estimates also show that substantial variation in cost of basic need across regions for example the 2000 the rural poverty line was 20% lower than that of Addis Abba and that of rural grade our poverty line was 12% higher than that of Addis Abba and this difference in level and change of poverty line lend credence to the need for the specificity in the construction of the poverty line when we come to the estimates of poverty and inequality we started with estimating poverty and there has been a steady but uneven progress with urban areas witnessing the greater the greatest gain in the first half of the decade and the rural area benefiting more in the latter half of the the decades and let's see this this figure the national poverty declined from 50 to 230 and urban from 41 to 14 and rural from 53 to 33 and the gains are much more higher but when we see the incidence poverty above the 2000 per poverty level there is a three distinction between the level of poverty although somewhat messy around here and when we see by rural and urban area so in urban area they gain between 2000 to 2005 and in rural areas again is much more between 2005 and 2011 and this is what we see the second order dominance where the decline in in in depths of poverty is also there but less pronounced than the incidence of poverty and even here is less pronounced in the severity of poverty the third order dominance analysis and whenever when we see inequality there has been also changes in equality the national inequality rose from point to eight to point three three and the urban first rose in the first half of the decade increased from point three eight to point four three and the later one declined to point three eight because of some urban activities regarding providing employment in urban areas and rural it has been increasing in fact the rural Guinea is more stable and this has been also witnessed by another inequality index of time index and the overall inequality that we measure is based on per capita real per capita conception and when we look at the then monetary poverty we can see the stunting in fact more tariff rates net enrollment rates and literacy and we see stunting this is based on the new war and health organization tables where it includes Africa and African countries into comparison so the national stunting was declined from 51 to 38 and more stunting is higher for males and for female maybe it's biological and we see also higher stunting in rural areas than in urban areas and we see the infant mortality it shows a steady decline this is one of the MVG course where Ethiopia has already met the MVG challenge and if we see the net enrollment rate for primary education really increase the minister of education estimate is more than this but this is what we obtained from the welfare monitoring survey and increased from 34 percent to 62 percent and both in rural and urban area but we see in secondary education is not much increase in rate net enrollment and we see also similar changes in in literacy rates in the country so when we come to the conclusion there has been fundamental structural change that took place in the economy improvements in physical infrastructure better access to improved agricultural inputs widespread social safety needs may have created a conducive environment for such poverty reduction and poverty decline substantially over the period from 50 to 30 percent the decline in poverty has matched with the changes in other monetary and non-monetary measure of well-being this confirms that the general pattern of persistent welfare improvement in Ethiopia over decades it also indicates that poverty estimates for Ethiopia are largely a reflection of the long-term trend in the broad-based growth and improvement in welfare what we have reached that no doubt for the decline in poverty but the degree to which the poverty fall over time must be interpreted cautiously as there are some comparability issues at all time related to the data sources that we have been explaining about the number of items and the recall periods that these different survey periods have been using thank you