 Welcome traders to another Tick Mill weekly market outlook for a week commencing the 5th of September with me Patrick Mundley. US is out on Monday for Labor Day celebrations and we are expecting volumes and participation to pick up this week as US traders return to their desks on Tuesday. We will receive global services PMI looking for a 44.2, ISM non-manufacturing 55.2, S&P Global has been providing a more cautious read on the state of the services sector, clear downside risks for this sector currently. Heading into Wednesday, July, trade balance. Looking for a negative 70.1 billion dollar print there, decline in domestic demand, really starting to weigh on imports. We'll also get the Federal Reserve's beige book, conditions across the region are looking increasingly mixed. We'll hear also from Fed members, Brainard and Barr. They're heading into Thursday, obviously initial jobless claims, 2.32 last print and likely to remain at these low levels for the time being. We will also get July consumer credit looking for 32.5 high rates to weigh really over the coming year in terms of consumer credit. We will also hear on Thursday from Fed Chair Powell speaking at a policy conference in Washington. Then we will round out the week on Friday with July holds some inventories looking for a 0.8 print there and certain time for retailers and those that supply them. We will hear also on Friday from Fed member Waller. Turning to the technical picture dollar index, still targeting a move now into this 1.10.30 to 1.11.87 area, which is the 1.27.161 extension of our previous corrective move. So I'm looking for price to move into the zone. I'm watching for various reversal patterns to engage on the short side and I'm looking for minimum a test of the monthly pivot 1.07.50s. I've ideally back down into the monthly projected rate score at the 1.05 level. Now moving to the Eurozone in terms of data, Monday we will get services PMI, final estimate looking 50.2. We also get September Centex investor confidence last time negative 25.2. Confidence seems to be stabilizing but uncertainty remains high. Then moving into Wednesday we'll get Q2 GDP, final print looking for 0.6 percent there, component detail with final estimates. And then heading into Thursday we will get the ECB policy decision where we are anticipating a 75 basis points move to take the refi rate to 1.25 percent. Market has really priced this 75 basis points in and fear of inflation is also supportive of that move. And that rounds out the data next week in terms of the Eurozone from a technical perspective. Eurodollar bearish pattern on Friday, obviously inside a reversal 2 downside. So I'm looking for price now to take out these prior cycle lows through that 99 handle. We are looking for a test of 97.60 which also is the yearly S3 pivot from there. I'm watching the bullish reversal happens from gauge on the long side. First target will be the descending trend channel resistance 101. And if we can get through there then we will be looking for a retest of the 103.50s. Moving to the UK, obviously the big news in the UK on Monday is going to be the announcement of the new Prime Minister, Liz Truss, they are hotly tipped to take over from Boris Johnson. In terms of data we get services PMI looking for a 52.5 which is the final estimate on the month. And then that really is the only data of note next week in the UK. So from a technical perspective moving to the sterling dollar we are looking for a 115 test here. Potentially take out those prior lows 114.20s but from there we are going to be watching for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side. Looking for a minimum three-way directed move back into the monthly pivot there at 118.20. At this stage a weekly close through those post-Brexit lows through the 114 level would be a bearish development opening up a test of 110 as the next downside magnet for sterling. Now we move to Japan and in terms of data next week Monday we get the Nikkei services PMI 49.2 which is the final estimate then moving into Tuesday we will get July household spending over a 4.7% print there versus a 3.5% print last time out. Re-opening rebound is well and truly underway there and then on Thursday round out the data in Japan with the Q2 GDP final print looking for 0.7% versus 0.5% print last time out. Output should receive tailwinds as we move into 2023. We also get July current account balance looking for a positive 795 billion yen there. Opportunities in Asia develop world demand risk continue to support there. So from a technical perspective we are looking for the dollar yen to test into 141.70s we've got some nice momentum divergence developing there so I'm watching the bearish reversal patterns as we test that area looking for a three-way directed move first target going to be the monthly pivot 135.90s and then we look for a test of this semi-tremine sport 134 before a potential test of the 132 monthly projected range support moving to Australia in terms of data. Q2 company profits looking for a 4.5% print there another strong showing particularly in the mining sector we also get Q2 inventories looking for 1.5% print there potential for a 1.6% above par inventory built down from that record Q1 pace and then moving into Tuesday we get the current account balance looking for a 21.5 billion print there potential or whisper number as low as 19 billion lifts substantially driven by a record trade surplus of 45 billion. We also get net exports looking for one positive one print there swings back to positive on a burst of those exports coming out of Australia. Then on Wednesday Q2 GDP looking for a 1% print there whisper number could be as high as 2% consumers lift spending on services and those COVID disruptions are eased then heading into Thursday around out of the week there down under with July trade balance looking for a 14 billion print there still elevated but down from the June record high we will also hear from RVO government low speaking on inflation and the monetary policy framework on Thursday that rounds out the data for Australia next week from the technical perspective bearish and cyberversal so I'm looking for an extension down through this 67 60s retest those prior cycle lows but ultimately what we're looking for is a 66 44 print which is the quality objective versus this bigger swing structure and those swing highs at 76 60s from there watch for bullish reversal patterns from gauge on the long side certainly thinking about move back up into the 69 20s and to round things out this week let's take a quick look at bitcoin over the weekend seeing some bearish consolidation continues in bitcoin at the moment we did we did extend lower last week so we're looking for a break of the prior cycle those 17 760 to give us that 12185 test as the downside objective the quality objective versus broader ABC swing structure and that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 5th of September as always traders plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly I'm at your risk until next week thanks very much