 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody? Welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the fan dual podcast network in numberfire.com where today We are getting our first look at Super Bowl 55 with George Chowhury of Pro football focus in the pff forecast podcast getting his thoughts on the Bucks versus the Chiefs and a couple of player props He likes as well. My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com joined here as always by Dr. Ed Fang you can find his work at thepowerank.com No, Ed, you were on the Bucks plus three this past weekend How relieved were you when you saw Matt LaFleur decide to kick the field goal versus trying for the touchdown on 4th down? I was relieved enough to be snarky on Twitter and say hey I thought this was like go for it territory for non-analytics folks But you know, yeah, it was nice, right? I mean you look the the Packers path to covering three three and a half was was pretty slim at that point anyways, right? So, I mean you could definitely see a push and they converted there But it was interesting because I feel like that play showed off a lot of personalities on Twitter If you want some bad words you go check out Nick Costos in that moment You want the kind of the typical analytics reaction go to Ben Baldwin and and his He was non-plussed at the the decision to go for it but then you know, he has actually has a bot that tells him, you know increase in win probability and kicking going for fourth and eight was only plus like 1.3 percent win probability So that's not huge right and the reason is because eight yards is a tall order, right? Yeah, it's not fourth and three that would have been a Much different story in terms of you know, your likelihood of converting that and going for a touchdown So, yeah, I know it was a moment that I'll remember for a while And yeah, I just enjoyed, you know catching all the different reactions on Twitter So I was watching I think it was actually George Chaurory who we're talking here in a little bit He was talking to Ben Baldwin about that bot and apparently the bot assumed they would go for one as opposed to going for two Once Ben made the adjustment for that it was three and a half points I think of win probability Which is like it doesn't sound like a lot But this is the point that George made on Twitter was that when your odds baseline are seven percent and your odds Do you go for it or ten point five percent? You're gonna take the ten point five percent every time that is actually a significant difference And so I think that that is noteworthy that Once the amendment was made it was pretty impactful, but also like I listen to Matlow floor's justification For deciding to go for the field goal. He said we had the two-minute warning We had three feet three timeouts. We effectively had four timeouts, right? But then you think about it the other way think about if you go for it You don't make it it's the Buccaneers ball in the yard line you still have all those four timeouts because the play is probably not going to take eight seconds So you still have those four timeouts you have the Bucks backed up to their yard line and your aggressiveness as Bruce Arians in That situation will be different than if the situation where you're at the 35 or 30 yard line or whatever so I Understand what he's saying when Matlow floor is saying I get where he's coming from however I Think the advantages of having the Bucks on the eight yard line if you don't make it and still having those quote-unquote four timeouts Are really impactful and I feel like that kind of got overlooked in the in the equation when he was deciding to kick that Sure for sure and also by another Ben Baldwin product like He had been the most aggressive person on fourth down this entire year and it wasn't really close So this was the place that John Harbaugh was at last year and Green Bay had been really aggressive So it was definitely a changing character and then you know the other to me The most critical play in the game was the fourth and three that Tampa Bay had with 13 seconds left in the first half so So I'm sitting around watching the game with a Packers fan. I'm like dude. There's 13 seconds left. You have to there's There's little risk in going for it right because you're only leaving the Packers with like a player or two from midfield He got pretty mad at me which I understand but But Bruce Arians is one of the least aggressive people on fourth down And if that if the game script is just slightly different and there's 20 seconds or maybe 30 seconds left in the first half I presume he punched that on fourth and three from midfield So instead You make you know, you make the fourth and three and then you know You watch Kevin King screw up again and let a receiver get by him. That is a critical I mean, I mean clearly it's a critical seven points with the way that with the with the way the game played out Right? Yeah, cuz then you you know, and then it's hard to overcome the three picks that Brady had in the second half So to me that was like the critical play in the game and it could have gone way differently Just with the amount of time left in the half Well, it's also wild the defense that was played there You know Kevin King obviously had a rough game But like he was put on an island against a guy with a lot of speed and Scotty Miller and asked, you know Cover him by yourself and like I'm guessing what Mike Petten was thinking the defense coordinator for Green Bay He was thinking hey, you know, there's not a lot of time left. They may try to You know throw it to the sideline to try to pick up some additional yardage because there were six seconds left in the half But like I think because there were six seconds left You should have said okay. They don't have enough time to run it out here pick up ten yards and kick the field goal They're probably gonna bomb it deep You should have at least thought about the scenario where they bomb it deep and go for the Hail Mary, which is what happened so Again Kevin King deserves his fair share of criticism too But the idea that you put him on an island against again a very fast guy and Scotty Miller like that seems ill-advised and It's weird that we're kind of forgetting about that play Because the decision at the end of the fourth quarter was so egregious like any other situation We are harping on that end of the half play way more than we are But they managed to make a decision that was even more wild later in the game that overshadowed The craziest play call you possibly could have imagined on defense Yep Yeah, I mean look it was a terrible terrible way to lose if you're Green Bay Yeah, like there was there how many needles that you got stuck into your skin and just the worst possible way during those three hour three Plus hours, so but I mean, you know, you know the game kind of had instant classic written all over it and Lived up to it. Yeah, absolutely. It's a fun game to watch like even though I don't want to watch sloppy play and the three interceptions in the second half by Tom Brady We're a little bit sloppy I'm more accepting a sloppy play when it's Tom Brady because I think it's funnier than so I'll definitely take it for sure We're gonna bring on George Chowhury of pro football focus. You can find them on the PFF forecast podcast and find them on Twitter at PFF underscore George We're gonna preview Super Bowl 55 with George talk through the game talk through the prep work that NBC does with pro football focus To get ready for their Sunday night football games really fun conversation there dear the kind of the nuts and bolts of the broadcast We'll also talk to them about props as well next week. We'll have an additional show on covering the spread and it's gonna be a fun one It's our first ever live covering the spread. It'll be Thursday 6 p.m. Eastern on the fangal YouTube, which Facebook and Periscope channels last year We had JJ Zachary Sennah to talk player props for Super Bowl He had Pat Mahomes first touchdown score a 20 to 1 So we're gonna bring JJ back on also be joined by Aaron Kate Dolan of fangal We're get her thoughts on Super Bowl 55 talks and props if you have questions We'll be take the way able to take those live on air, too So Ed we're taking cover in the spread and going live feels kind of big time. I like it Yeah, I like it too. I'm looking forward to it. I'm looking for learning from others You know the Super Bowl props that I I should be betting. Yes, absolutely So we'll be talking about those next week It will be on YouTube But we'll also post it on here the same podcast feed after the facts if you are a podcast listener Don't want to go to YouTube understandable. I don't tend to watch stuff on YouTube either You can still be subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast will be live there later on before we talk to George Though would you have to go back through last week pretty good week for the podcast across the board when it came to the conference championships Covering the past Last week you're on covering the spread we had Jason McIntyre on to preview the conference championships You can find Jason on Twitter at Jason our McIntyre makes you out make sure you check out the straight fire Podcast as well We all had action on that first game between the Bucks and the Packers as mentioned Ed had the Bucks plus three Jason and the Packers minus three I had the over at 51 and a half and the spread did close at three The total rose during the week and wound up at 53 so a point and a half of value there And you had the right read on the game the Bucks offense through three picks, but you still got the win That's got to feel pretty good. I ate it by some Wild decisions by Green Bay, but still a good process bet regardless. They did win that one 31 to 26 So you got the cover. I got the over pretty good week for us and Jason Also did say that he liked the over on Marquez Valdez scantlings. We're seeing prop 31 and a half yards He had a 50-yard touchdown the first half. It's nice to sweat those things that boom I was looking for his tweet to retweet it, but I couldn't find it But like yeah boom one play done I mean if you can get one play over and that was that was what we said about Marquez Valdez scantling Yep, so that was helpful for sure exactly what he said. So so that was exactly the clip that you guys posted on Twitter So it was I didn't know we're doing clips from that game from that from that podcast. Hey worked out for me I will not complain. Thanks Cal. Appreciate that in the late game Jason was on the chiefs minus three against the bills We talked before Patrick Mahomes had cleared concussion protocol, but Jason said hey You know he's gonna clear we're good with this. I'll lay the three with the cheese and the number did close at three Which I thought was Interesting it got to three and a half and I think it might have been at four honestly at one point on Friday after Mahomes clear, but it went back to three when it closed They did fall down early three or nine nothing, but I don't know I don't know about you But like when it was 14 nine and the cheese were on top I kind of felt like it was over at that point Do you have a similar feeling that like once the cheese were ahead that game was just done? Um, I mean not necessarily, but I just feel like you saw how efficient their offense was you saw how I mean You know 64% success rate on passing plays and it felt like more so I mean maybe in that sense I felt like it was done But maybe in that sense I Okay, so maybe I didn't feel like it was done because I expected more out of Josh Allen Yeah, and they you know he just didn't have a great game Just just made just held on the ball too long a couple times You know wasn't didn't have a great game. It's fine. He had a great season So in that sense, I didn't think like it was over but But yeah, I mean I mean Kansas City was was was was on fire. Yeah, and Unfortunately didn't see the full Josh Allen experience We got see couple glimpses of bad Josh, but I'm sure that Josh Allen back next year So we can watch him then Brian Dable back So the bill's still a team will be talking I think about in positive terms next year So good call by Jason on the cheese minus three and with the MVS prop So no cover for him on Green Bay versus Tampa Bay But still a good week overall for Jason check him out on Twitter at Jason our McIntyre and also check out these straight fire Podcasts we're gonna bring George Chow worry on in just a second But first the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers That's I'm sure you've heard are set to battle next Sunday Vandal sportsbook is giving you a chance to get in on the action with some can't miss odds right now New users can wager up to five dollars and either the Chiefs or the Bucks at plus fifty five hundred odds That is right a five dollar bet on either team can win you two hundred and seventy five Dollars next Sunday will be here before you know it So download the Vandal sportsbook app and make your first deposit to see the enhanced odds today must be 21 Plus in present New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Colorado, West Virginia, Iowa, Virginia Michigan Ed, Tennessee or Indiana new users only must wager on the designated boost markets must be 21 plus and present there as well See full terms at sportsbook.fandual.com Max bonus 275 dollars gambling problem called 1 800 gambler in Colorado called 1 800 5 2 2 4700 in West Virginia visit 1 800 gambler net in Indiana called 1 800 9 with it Born Tennessee called the Tennessee Red Line 1 800 8 8 9 9 7 8 9 mine endlessly grateful that there is not an additional phone number for Michigan or Virginia But welcome the Fandual sportsbook family. We're gonna bring George Chow Rory on now Make sure you check him out on Twitter at pff underscore George and check out the pff forecast podcast as well Let's get his thoughts and Super Bowl 55 Covering the present Let's bring George Chow Rory into covering the spread to break down Super Bowl 55 between the Chiefs and the Bucks George. We appreciate the time. How you doing today? I'm doing great. It's the first week without football So part of me wants to kind of you know chill out a little bit But then you want to analyze from every angle that you can possibly imagine the best match for the year So it's a great week. I'm excited man I almost didn't think we'd get here, but we're here. Well, it's not just the Super Bowl We also have like all this quarterback news like we got Jared Goff We got Matthew Stafford Aaron Rodgers might be not super happy like usually It's it's like a little bit of a break to have this off week But it feels like everything is kind of combined to make sure no No, no, you will get no rest until after the Super Bowl and probably well after because like it just feels like the News cycle is setting up for this this all season to be totally wild Which means you get no off week between the conference championships in the Super Bowl here I'm here for it. I'm here for the quarterback madness. I think it's gonna be great. I someone made a comment that was like We're gonna see a lot of teams trade out their Average quarterback for another average quarterback, and I was like this is just how this is just dating in most people's lives NFL gets to experience it now That's hilarious. Yeah, I was tweeting this morning about like, please don't trade to Sean Watson, which it's probably no-brainer amongst this group, but Yeah, that's a that's a great. That's a great example George. Hey George We're gonna get to the Super Bowl a little bit later But I've actually been dying to ask you about your work with PFF and the Sunday night football broadcast Tell us about like what you do with that and and how that goes down. Yeah, that's actually kind of how I Got into PFF. I started Working with the NBC broadcast obviously Chris is the analyst on the broadcast and so We do a lot of things behind the scenes not just for Chris But for the whole production crew which is kind of preparing their graphics team with interesting pieces for the game Preparing their production team in terms of like what to expect from different matchups and stuff like that And then over the course of time we have built in a lot more analytical robustness So I'm thinking about fourth downs two point conversions When to pass when to run things that I think a lot of people that spend their life in analytics and football Like yeah, it's a no-brainer But then it angers them when they watch a broadcast because that often is not something that The broadcast crew is attuned to so it's really a weekly thing. I'd say it starts as soon as the game ends on Sunday night We produce a pretty robust preview that goes to Fred Godelli Chris and Al and the whole graphics team Fred Godelli being the executive producer And then kind of throughout the week up until about Thursday. We're ironing that out Making sure everything is, you know, double check triple checked all that stuff Thursday into Friday kind of condensing those notes for Chris Up until game time and then during the game We're monitoring things like fourth downs letting Chris know if this is an obvious go for it situation or you know, heaven forbid you should kick a field goal or punts And communicating that to you know, Fred and the graphics team so everyone's aligned. So it's cool. I get to be On the heads that I have a setup in the office in Cincinnati that gives me a live feed So I get to see the game before everyone else sees it, which is pretty cool And I get to hear this is the best part. I get to hear Al Chris and then Fred the producer talk off air Which is honestly priceless Well, that's so cool And it's been a very relevant discussion talking about the fourth down decisions the field goals and you know two-point conversion attempts or Decisions with that as well with the past couple of weeks Is it frustrating for you when you watch a broadcast from another network where They may not have the same data that you have is it frustrating to hear the Conversation around things such as two-point conversion attempts fourth down attempts Knowing that it may not necessarily be as informed as what you may have You know when when they actually do put stock into the information you're providing Yeah, it is and I would say it's honestly Um, it's more front. Here's what frustrates me the most What frustrates me the most is we'll spend all this time prepping You know giving Chris everything and every once in a while. He'll say something like, you know, I hope they get the run game going You know for the play action game and he says it, you know He's been calling football for so long that there's so many things that he says that are second nature And he has to make it sound good And so I know he's never doing it on purpose But I know that someone out there thinks that I'm okaying that beforehand So that frustrates me and it's through no one's fault Of their own the other broadcasts are interesting because to me that is That is not the talent's fault Not the people on screen. It is the error of the production teams. They need to think about these things. They need to You know their job is to tell the story of the game And there are so many football fans out there that have no idea in it in 2021 What actually math is telling us about these things and I think it's just they need to put more investment in there I think, um, you know, fox is a Broadcast team that we've worked a decent amount with and I know that troi and joe are trying Um, and so that's really encouraging and it's one of these things where I always try to remind myself Like we spend our lives thinking about it. This is the 50th thing These guys are thinking about so I've gotten more calm. That's my way of saying I've calmed down And I think the the talent discussion is worthwhile because like when you're in that moment It's so hard to you mean you have to give analysis. You have to go through all that stuff Like you said, it's the 50th thing you're thinking about trying to break down the math trying to break down Different paths that could play out. It's a really tough thing So I think that your emphasis on The production and like obviously they have a lot on their play too You're like I'm not saying that like their main focus should be on the analytical side of things But like there's a lot going on. It's really hard to try to juggle all those things So I think that you're right to bring up the fact that like We get frustrated with the broadcasters because they're the ones who say it But like at the end of the day, there is a lot on their plate that they have to juggle So I think that your emphasis in like it has to be a team effort I think that that that that is a smart topic to bring up too and I would point this out I think one of the inefficiencies in football not from just for broadcast standpoint But in football throughout is a focus on minor details That don't matter nearly as much as macro decision-making matters And a great example of this is the fourth down in the green bay game Right, you probably spent as a as a broadcaster preparing for that so much time looking at You know, I don't know wide receiver cornerback matchups, right? It when in reality people are moving all over the place De Bonte Adams in nine different positions on the field every other snap And and you cannot let those small things Get in the way of making the right decision in those big Big moments because that can cost you the game it cost them the game twice Right, it cost them the game at the end of the half when Tom Brady ran circles around the entire green bay coaching staff And then it cost them at the end of the game when they took the MVP And said you go sit down. We're not going to give you a chance to win the game Yeah, for sure. I mean I I don't wherever like I think the broadcasts do have a hard job I would like to actually try and I'm sure I would really fail But I love that that you are, you know, you're in there You're in there with the conversations and I presume that your your executive producer is very Open to the analytics and including you right Yeah, Fred. So Fred Godelli is a magician Al and Chris are incredible at their job But Fred Godelli is legitimately 99 of the things that Al or Chris says you go. Wow, that's incredible Fred told him five seconds to go to say it You know like that guy is so on top of it He studies more than I think the coaches do And he's always trying to improve and learn more and he admits he goes like I'm not a math guy But I recognize that this is an important thing to consider So we want to bring it in here and I'm not saying I'm going to understand it every time like two point conversions And we had this conversation last year because it was really pertinent I forget who it was that did it in a big spot that went for two And and it was a big conversation I was trying to explain it to him and he goes, you know, I'm going to need this explain me nine more times I trust you. I know we need to include it and I think that is the type of mentality It's honestly the type of mentality coaches need to have and and producers Fred is great Yeah, no, absolutely And I feel like we can't really put an analytics guy in the booth And we probably shouldn't because that guy is just going to sit there and be like a small sample size. Yep But I feel like we get an analytics guy on the pregame show So george, if you don't want to do it, I'm definitely up for it But that's where we got to get like more of this conversation Because a lot of people watch that pregame show, right? Like that's like the most consumed beside the game That's the most consumed sports content out there And I think that would be like the next progression For this country as a full nation Analytics a little gambling tone to it And then here's my thought in game because I agree with you I don't want to listen. I love listening to Alan Chris. I love listening to Troy and Joe. They're really good at their jobs But when there's a big officiating call, they bring in Terry McCauley Yeah, and Terry's great for those 30 seconds that he's on there Bring someone in to talk about the fourth down decision Like that to me would be a really cool way of enhancing the broadcast without what I think a lot of people are trying to do Which is change something that I think works really well with the the people that we have in the booth Well, and it goes back to what you said too where they have the broadcasts themselves is so much on their minds But they need to juggle and think about let them focus on their specialty like you know Chris is a former player let him focus on the things that he knows really well and Don't shovel everything on to his plate and expect him to know everything You can bring on this analytics person who can discuss the math behind why you want to go for two when you score Touchdown down 14 like that having that and allowing people to focus on their specialty I feel like would open up It would make the broadcasts better But also it would not put undue pressure on the broadcasters to talk about things that they you know Don't focus on as much as we do it would get rid of the phrase that I just love hearing which is well the analytics Yeah, you know the reference to this like well the analytics say and then it's probably something the analytics Don't actually say like that's usually what follows it. Well here comes analytics onto the field again Forcing us to watch this team try and score more points. I'm really frustrated about that, you know And I think it would be fun Al oftentimes You know, he's so great at interjecting his personality which everyone loves in the broadcast and I think he would do a really good job of playing back and forth with that and Allowing the viewers out there that are a little confused or think differently And he would he would give he would bring them in, you know, he'd say I don't I don't Agree with that, you know and and give some and and allow a little bit of back and forth That I think would help the conversation because one of the things that we need to get better at Is not talking down to people, you know, just because you happen to Understand, you know probability a little better like good for you, you know, like Bring people in instead of you know, and I'm guilty of it plenty of the time too So, you know, I'm not saying that I'm some almighty being here, but I think it would help Yeah, absolutely making it more open everyone is always because no one's gonna listen to you if you're condescending all the time So I think that's a good point to make too. So hopefully you can sit back and yeah exactly Hopefully you can sit back and enjoy the broadcast on sunday before we talk about the Super Bowl here, george Let's recap this past year because on the pff forecast podcast you guys are talking betting a lot and I feel like personally I learned a lot during 2020, but I also want to talk to our guests about what they learned during 2020 Big lessons for next year. So what about for you george? What were things you learned from this past year as a better that you think you can make yourself better next year? Yeah, this is a great question And I loved it when when you sent it over and I thought a bunch about it and there are so many different things That that come to mind here are a couple The first is that I think this year even though we talk about it a lot It sometimes got the better of me in in thinking about placing bets and that is Being overcome with zeal for a great defensive performance And that is not to take anything away from great defensive performances But statistically we just know that there's a lot more variance in how defenses perform from week to week and so While you want to be impressed by it when it happens you don't want to bet on it happening again all the time and The way that I would phrase it for people is like to me as I was going through the season What I tried to do every week was look at who are the best teams? Who are the best offenses and who are the best defenses? And the best team and the best offense every single week were the chiefs All right, and if and if you disagree with that Like if you Don't think that the chiefs were the best team this whole season like steven a smith who had the Steelers up there a couple times early on You know, I really need to see your your rationale and that to me was a defensive thing, right? If you look at the best defenses every two weeks, there was a new best defense And so I think that's something that I took away from the season I think I learned it a little later on in the season and then and then the other thing that came to mind was the importance of establishing priors And that cuts two ways So the first is thinking about a team like the chiefs for example who got everyone's best shot this year And you know it didn't cover the spread like eight straight weeks and it's like are the chiefs reeling And I think that requires a little more understanding of the past And the same is true with rookie quarterbacks. We are really quick to say Justin Herbert was not accurate at Oregon and Okay, that's fine to analyze it that way And at the same time he played well this year and I don't want to immediately ordain him Great, and I think those are so it's a little bit of way of saying like don't get overly excited about things that are exciting Right, which is a boring thing to say, but it's also So I wonder if you guys come into run into this a bunch as well because I think about it from a gambling analogy Back when the world series of poker was really, you know exciting everyone wanted to play poker and I started playing poker online And you listen all these people go look if you really want to win money playing poker. It's a job It's not like exciting right you're grinding it out And I think betting is similar like if you you can have excitement doing it But you might not be profitable if you really want to be profitable It's not going to be that fun all the time Well, that's the the problem is like it's not fun to bet against Patrick Mahomes, which is very scary So like it's not fun to bet unders like there are a lot of elements of betting that are not fun And they can still be profitable like I I'd Refused I'd never want to root against Patrick Mahomes. Therefore I try really hard never to bet against him for that exact same reason But like there are times where it's possible to cheese maybe overvalued. I'm not saying that's the case this week I would probably argue very much against that But like it is tough to try to divorce the excitement factor from the analytical factor and that's tough and I think the other part too with the About not getting overly drawn into one game things is for me. It's not where I will bet And bet on a team because they're good defensive performance But it sticks in my head is like this red flag where I'm like, uh, do I actually want to bet against this team that just performed well When they just did this and to me will prevent me From making what otherwise would be a good bet because I'm afraid of what I just saw so I think for me at least it's less so Betting based on that but it's avoiding bets that might go counter to that I think that that is also it's along the same lines, but that's my personal shortcoming I think is being hesitant to bet against regression of a basically Yeah, no, I mean I completely agree with those points. I mean, I think you gotta you gotta I mean nfl a lot of any league is is definitely a league of regression to the mean And the point you bring up george about the defenses Um, you know, defenses aren't as stable as offenses, right? Like past offenses the the thing you want to be good at and the most reliably Most reliable thing to be good at and obviously Kansas City is that that's what they're all about But yeah, we saw Pittsburgh's defense fall off in a catastrophic fashion In that game and I think that just illustrates your point george Yeah, I uh, I caught a lot of flak for saying that the Steelers were overrated to the point where we had NBC had a bunch of stealer games and uh, and Chris gave me a call One week before a stealer game. He's like man, you better be right Well, we call him back after the playoff game and say Chris Scoreboard He he goes so it was before um, so they did that baltimore pittsburgh game that was um That was pushed back So they had that one. Yeah, the koba game and then they had baltimore buffalo a few weeks later And it was before that game And he goes I understand you did a great job explaining why um And I I think you know, I'm I'm gonna agree with you, but just be I just really hope you're right So So when when the Steelers were I'm like two blocks away from the bangle stadium So I like to think that I was literally living in big ben's head During that collapse Just sitting there clapping my hands drinking my tequila And and you know, I have nothing against the Steelers personally But they obviously their fans are rambunctious and they they came at me some players You know retweeted me and I loved it because that's what makes the game great But I had to get a little fun out of it myself when I was right at the end Well, it was the players retweeting it at the time But then after the collapse happened It was a lot of your colleagues are pro football focusing. Hey BT dubs George is right which had to feel pretty good too There was a lot of silence from the Steelers locker room at the end of the season And I you know, I don't know. I you know tiktok obviously takes a lot of time. So maybe they were busy George let's move on to the Super Bowl. We have Kansas City is a three-point favorite. It's juice that Vandal sportsbook at minus 122 What are you thinking about this game? man this one So I thought it would be three that was kind of my I try to you know We try to guess the lines on the forecast ahead of time so that we kind of get a sense of where we're leaning And three feels You know pretty spot-on. I will say this though I when The chiefs went down nine nothing I immediately looked to bet on the Super Bowl and got the a of c winner minus one and a half And that you know, so I'm really happy about that and now looking at three and I wonder you know if I Is three is three really just pandering a little bit to the Tom Brady story and it is a great story and people want to bet on Tom Brady From a power rating standpoint, we have the chiefs as about a five and a half point Five and a half points better than the bucks are and so how do you get from five and a half to three? That's it. That's tough for me because you don't have an advantage The bucks do not have an advantage at quarterback They don't have an advantage from a scheme perspective. In fact, I would say they have a pretty significant disadvantage from an offensive scheme perspective And we just talked about defense, you know, the the bucks have capitalized on turnovers over the past two games at a ridiculous rate, you know at a ridiculous rate and Tom Brady, you know Tom Brady threw back-to-back picks against the Packers the Packers didn't pick up a first down after either of So you look at those two games and you go, okay MVP and against the Saints was Drew Brees Do the bucks even score in that game? Without Drew Brees and then against the Packers you've got this calamity of errors for the Packers and a Really uncreative the lacking in creativity from the offensive standpoint and so to me the bucks I think are a little overvalued here. I would still take the chiefs at minus three And and You know, I wouldn't want to bet it with the hook I would probably lay off a little bit if it got to three and a half and look maybe more towards the over In that situation. I think that's where I'm headed now, but I'm very curious to hear what you guys are thinking So you have one and a half with the afc winner from that game Are you probably going to stand pat with that given this one is so juiced at minus three? I probably will and I will look to look here's one other thing I learned this year if you aren't betting player props I don't know what you're doing. Okay, because The it's fun to bet sides. It's fun to bet totals But the inefficiency is in player props and in particular The unders in player props and that's one of the things at pff We built a props tool for this year and it was like a you know, wow There's a lot of value on a lot of these unders. It's not fun to talk about them But you're going to win if you bet them and so I will definitely look to play a ton of props in this game and I think the over is something 56 was I think what it opened at it's 56 nap now I believe and I don't know how this game plays out in a way Where that where there isn't a lot of scoring, right? You know, I think there almost has to be an injury Of some kind for like that not to happen. So I think that's where I would play this game Since I already have one and a half and I have some bucks futures, but no one cares about my bets. No one cares We care. That's why you have you on, you know, there's a reason we have you as a guest in the show, George So we wanted to pick your brain on that. Uh, but you're talking about the over here What leads you towards liking the over worth where it's at a 56 and a half? Okay, so let's think about this the the chiefs are The chiefs are incredible And they put up an offensive performance against the bucks that I don't think was represented in the score in that game the ease with which they just took apart The bucks defense and what the bucks do best Is blitz that is their calling card But you can't blitz patrick mahomes because he will absolutely destroy you And so I think it puts the bucks in a situation where they need to change their defense To to try and compete But I don't know that that's the Changing their defense means they're doing new things And that means there's going to be confusion and if there's one person's going to take advantage of that confusion It's andy reed and the chiefs. So I see no problem. I know that both tackles are out And what I would remind people of is that patrick mahomes does a better job of navigating the pocket creating open and clean pocket throws than anyone else And um, and that they played the the 49ers last year who had a pretty good front four as well I might add so from the chief's perspective. I'm not worried about it. And then if I look to the buck side of things The bucks might get out to a lead. Okay, if they get out to a lead, then I'm confident mahomes is You know, he that's what he does. He's going to excel there If the chiefs get out to a lead, well, then the bucks are going to have to abandon the Leonard four net Three yards and a pile of dust game plan, which they love so much and start throwing the ball down field Which I have no worries about from tom brady. He led the league in completions and yards On throws 20 plus yards down field. His arm is fine. So I like both those game scripts to get me over 56 Excellent. So george, you mentioned some props. Um Um Let's talk about some of them. Is there any any of any of the ones over at fandal sportsbook that you'd like to share So the first one that caught my eye is uh, a prop bet that I'm not advising mathematically to bet Okay, I can't in my right mind say look the math backs this up and and I'm looking at the pff props tool And it's telling me no, but my body is telling me. Yes, and that is Leonard four net anytime touchdown score Um, because I have a belief that Bruce Arians wants to get Leonard four net a touchdown To rationalize the decision to make Leonard four net the nickel back Okay, so that is one, uh, that I am that I'm going to bet just to kind of cover my ass Uh, a couple that I do that I do like, um in both a spiritual and a mathematical sense Um are so Tom Brady now, I'm not sure if this one's on fandal There's a couple that I did see on fandal, but when this does come up Tom Brady's rushing yardage prop is interesting to me if it's at one Uh and a half I kind of like the over there. Uh thinking about a couple of You know sneak opportunities for him getting a couple of yards on a sneak and I don't anticipate that he will be taking Knees in this game. That's not my my assumption there. Um from an anytime score Uh situation and in first time score situation, which I like both of those and that you obviously get different odds there Travis Kelsey appeals to me. So Travis Kelsey. I think anytime to score a touchdown is like minus 165 on fandal I've seen him 175 in some places and Look the bucks linebackers the latte. David's great. Devon white allowed more receiving yards Than any other linebacker this year. So I think Andy Reed will leverage Travis Kelsey there. I think he's about 600 plus 600 is a first time The first touchdown scored. I like that as well. Um, so I'm I'm all about Travis Kelsey in this game I think that's where The bucks will try to keep Tyreek Hill from going for like 300 yards on them And that will open up Travis Kelsey to do what he does best, which is destroy the middle of the field We saw that adjustment by the bucks in the first game where they decided. No, no, no No more 200 yard quarters for Tyreek Hill Uh, so I think that the emphasis on Kelsey there does make sense. Now, George, I know you're standing I might urge you to sit down because the Tom Brady rushing yard prop not only is 0.5 like 0.5 But it's juiced up to plus 198 on the over So I just gotta warn you That that might be Your best Yeah, your your must have for this week I so we do, uh We do a pregame show Every week that we just started because we have a new studio PFF and we wanted to use it as much as we could right and so we do this show every pregame And I have taken it upon myself To talk about the props for the people, you know to get because I know there are people out there that They're looking to make some extra cash here and I want to let them know so My favorite props are quarterback rushing overs because there's nothing more fun than watching a guy drop back Hoping chaos happens and they have to scamper now Brady's not going to do that, but 0.5 man. I mean I know there's value in the the Brady Touchdown props too because we know that they will go to the the sneak attempts in the goal line First touchdown score is 24 to 1. That's not quite long enough for me to get tempted But I did look into it for that exact same reason because we know the chiefs have taken the the The the qb sneak out of the playbook the buccaneers very much have not it's basically page one for them is the quarterback sneak so Tom brady props rushing at the front of george's mind That is george charrury make sure you check him out on twitter at pff underscore george and check out the pff forecast podcast Already have a podcast up talking about this game recapping the conference championships as well. Check that out There is a link to the pff forecast podcast in the notes over on number fire dot com george Thank you so much for your time. Good luck to you with all your bets for the super bowl and hopefully talk to you again soon I appreciate you guys having me on this is a ton of fun and i'll mention To all of your listeners if you want to bet some props super bowl 25 promo code will get you 25 off So don't say I didn't ever do anything for you and your listeners, but I I love this was awesome guys and uh Good luck with all the bets you're gonna place in super bowl. Not only gracing you with value But also gracing you with a promo code that is george. Thank you so much george. We appreciate it. Thanks guys covering the future Big thank you once again to george charrury for joining us here on covering the spread checking out on twitter at pff underscore george And as mentioned the pff forecast podcast link is up on number fire dot com in the post for this podcast net I like the idea of an analytics guy on the pregame show Uh, do you do you have any analytics background? You know any uh, any websites you've created any book? Anything to for your resume here? Yeah, the mbc guys are Producers are listening man. I could uh, you know a little bit of analytics a little bit of betting a little bit of uh humor I I'll sign up So, uh, I I think it was fun. They had steve cornackie on on the mbc broadcast the mbc pregame shows Uh to break down the the playoff odds and stuff like that Uh breaking out the the drawing board and all that so we can get a steve cornackie Esk figure in to break down four thousand decisions and stuff like that I'm in I think that'd be a lot of fun I could not do that myself because I don't want to interact with people but like hey Someone else can take it up for sure Let's dive now into covering the future. We again are going to have a show next week as well So we'll have more stuff around simple 55, but you want to start things off here Ed by talking about the spread in this game. What are you seeing for the cheese versus the buccaneers? Yeah, well, I mean let's talk about the two teams just real quick. I mean kansas city Look, they only do one thing really well And that's throw the football, right? You look at running the ball. They're they're not great They're 14th when I look at a justice success rate the defense, you know the past defense 12 Rush defenses last in the league But the NFL is a passing league and throwing the ball is the most important and the most reliable thing Kind of statistically when when you look at things and so if you want to build a team like kansas city has done it the right way And I mean no one's really stopped them in the playoffs yet I mean well with with patrick mahomes, of course A little little hiccups when he went out of the cleveland game So I do feel like, you know kansas is a three three and a half point favorite The performance is definitely justified at the last two games, but you know, let's not forget You know, they didn't play their starters week 17 against the chargers and then they scored You know 17 points against the land of falcons defense the week before right so Every team is going to have its ups and downs clearly if they play as well as they did against buffalo, uh, you know that They're they're gonna do pretty well Um on the other side, you know, like camp of bay hasn't looked particularly good in the in the playoffs You think about like the plus four turnover margin against new orleans You think about, uh, the three interceptions that brady threw at green bay It didn't cost them for reasons that we've talked about already And and he was just really good. He had a couple big plays and and um But I mean there were there were closed games. So I think This line of kansas city being favored by three three and a half points is a little bit based on this recent form You know, tampa bay being, you know, good enough to get through Kansas city just being pretty explosive on offense at the last two games My model sees a much closer game. They like kansas city by 1.4 points Uh, so definitely suggesting value on tampa bay and part of that is tampa bay's defense, uh, which has been Um, really good this season, uh, ninth The past defense is my ninth point. I look at the uh, my past defense by by adjusted success rate. So and I think they they can do enough to slow down kansas city to keep tampa bay in this game. Um, I would definitely take uh, tampa bay plus three and Yeah, that's that's what I like in this game. So we've been talking about how I've been trying to tinker with my own numbers And I want to read you my number after I pull up the excel spreadsheet Which is taking a second year to open Um, but it's you said 1.4 correct Mine's 1.8, uh, in favor of kansas city. So I feel good good confirmation bias. However Again, my cardinal rule is never bet against Patrick Mahomes because it frightens me. So, yeah Yeah, yeah, it does. It does frighten me. I violated that. I will say We've been doing a playoff betting show, um on the youtube twitch facebook and periscope channels I did recommend an underdog moneyline parlay between the bucks and the bills got one half not the second half and I did violate my rule So felt pretty bad about that, which means that I can't I like we talked about george like I can't I can't bet against Patrick Mahomes But it does feel good to know that my model is in line with yours The other thing my model says is the under for this game is pretty enticing But again, that entails betting against Patrick Mahomes. I'm an offensive perspective and I value my mental health and don't want to do that. So instead My covering the future is talking about the bucks under 26 and a half points the again the numbers I have say the Total for this game should be lower than 56 and a half I'm okay betting overs on really high total games But like it's tough when that requires the chief's offense not to do a whole lot and I just I don't want to go Against the cheese. So I'm going to stick with just the buck sides here I want them under 26 and a half points, which is minus 104 at vandal sportsbook And the risk here is that 27 is the most common point total for the entire 2020 season It's a key number I write near that key number that does make me a bit nervous and that's why I like the juice being Just minus 105 here. That's helpful Does scare me a bit though The main reason I want the under here is that the chiefs are built well To stop this specific kind of offense the big issues the chiefs have defensively as they struggle to stop the run And they're not good against fast wide receivers or slot receivers Good guys there chris godwin actually does check both those boxes works from the slot a lot has good speed That's not the strength this buck's team though. The strength of this buck's team offensively is mike evans He's an outside wide receiver when they go deep they go to evans He has he leads an overall target share too. He's a big focus in the red zone And the chiefs have shown they can hold that type of guy in check stiff on digs And john brown combined for just over 100 yards last week and digs had surpassed that number by himself In the previous five full games They were really good in that bill's game of neutralizing stiff on digs And I'd expect them to put a similar emphasis on mike evans in this one The bucks aren't going to do much in the ground. They tried against the packers their early down first half pass rate was Lower than their full season numbers. They were more run heavy than they were for the full season It just didn't work. They're the 18th ranked rush offense Not surprised they would struggle in trying to do that. Basically I think it's just not the ideal kind of defense for the bucks to face We saw a similar pairing last week where the bills they're also a team that struggles from the football. They struggle to Uh get production from the slot, especially the cold beasley playing with a broken leg Apparently they are mostly a team that feeds to their outside wide receivers and their offense couldn't operate very well I think this is a pretty similar spot here with tampa bay. The cheese defense played awesome in that game So i'm expecting something pretty similar here So I will take the lower juice and the bet the bucks under 26 and a half total points at minus 104 I agree with you that this bucks offense is really good. I have been on the bucks for a while But you know, I did bet them last week as well with part of that parley But I think against this specific defense and the way that they are built I think it's a tough spot for them and it kind of goes back to what you said where the chiefs are built the right way Not just offensively ed but also defensively their emphasis on stopping the pass And I think that right we focus on the offense, but the defense has also taken a smart approach Which just shows that the overall team building on the chiefs is a way that most teams should operate too Well, and then teams like the giants absolutely don't so right Yeah, I mean the chiefs. I mean, I've I've been surprised I I would I really when they took Clyde Edwards-Hallaire with the last pick in the first round I really thought they They should draft a cornerback But the cornerback play has been quite good and their pff cover grade. I think is 10th in the nfl They really short goal with pass rush And you can always tell that when you have an interior lineman leading your your team in sacks Although chris jones is clearly a stud But yeah, I mean, I think their coverage is good. I I mean, I do. I mean, I I still give the edge to Tampa Bay's receivers When I I mean, yeah, I would give the edge to Tampa Bay's receivers So I I do think that they're going to be able to score on Kansas City's defense Maybe we'll get more talk about the can or the Tampa Bay wide receivers next week on our prop show extravaganza once again That'll be thursday 6 p.m. Eastern on the faddle youtube twitch facebook and periscope channel So make sure you are subscribed there with ourselves jgzak rason and erin kate dolin as well Should be a pretty fun show looking forward to being live and again that will be on the podcast feed immediately after as well That is all that we have though for this initial look at superbowl 55 big Thank you once again to george charuri once again, find him on twitter at pff underscore george Check out the pro football focus pff forecast podcast Check out george again on twitter at pff underscore george and what is going on for you this in this down week, I guess over at the power rank I mean not a lot. I'm I'm working on a college basketball Um, but yeah, please sign up for my email free email newsletter Looking ahead past football season. I offer a cheat sheet for you to fill out your march madness Bracket makes it dead simple to do that So you can always get that at the power rank dot com All righty and make sure to check out the football analytics show as well the power rank dot com in the football analytics show Find out on twitter at the power rank. I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to calvin fia bald our video producer for running the video side of things here today Thank you cal as always. Thank you to everyone for tuning in back with you once again next week for our prop based show For super bowl 55. We'll talk to you then this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network