 Morning, it is Wednesday 22nd of January, so everything is going well. Hope you are virus free at this point. Don't forget to subscribe to the channel on YouTube if you're watching this on that platform. Plenty more of these updates to come for sure. If you hit the bell icon to turn on notifications, you'll get alerts whenever we publish new content every morning for our kind of macro overview. But yeah, talking about the main things from my side, we have updates, of course, about now this coronavirus apparently spreading to other geographic regions, a US citizen who was present in Wuhan in China where the deaths have occurred so far with this virus. He went back to, I think it's the state of Washington in America and apparently now he's been taken into quarantine but obviously the first time it's shifted over to the Western world and that did have a bit of a response in markets last night which we can review. However, that's already been almost brushed over and credit to people like Sam who have been long equities since the middle of last week. I mean, you had a pretty decent pullback of almost 200 points yesterday in the Dow but again, the luxury of being patient and holding a good entry on a medium term position, allowing room for the trade to breathe in respect to the underlying notion that really despite these short term moves that we have seen, like with yesterday in the recovery, like with yesterday in the US reaction initially and then recovery by the close, the overall underlying idea here is that it's not yet to the point of sheer panic to instigate a continuous push to the downside but having a look at the other things before we circle back to that subject, how are charts looking this morning? Well, actually index futures, although albeit the DAX has just come off a little bit as I'm speaking, generally elevated given the recovery that was seen, if you actually look at the charts on the index futures last night in Asia at around 2 a.m., we had a pretty decent pop on the upside technically breaking above a couple of areas as well in the US indices, but we'll see fully recovering the dip that we're seeing yesterday. Elsewhere, currency markets, things are relatively quiet overall, some of the major pairs just nursing very small losses for the moment. Gold down about three and a half, similar tick loss in the US 10 year with oil down about 40 cents, just hugging the $58 handle for the moment. I'll let Sam go over the charts from a technical perspective in a moment, but let's just run through a couple of the news items in play this morning. And so, yeah, Chinese officials have stepped up their monitoring of transportation links in China, ordered nearly a complete shutdown of that central base city of Wuhan where the virus apparently originated from. The death toll now at nine confirmed cases have stretched now to six locations outside mainland China and the first diagnosis in the US. So just to give you a bit of a graphical representation of this virus and the current state of play at the moment, if I would just shrink this a little bit so you can see. These are reported cases you can see in yellow. So there's been one in Japan, four in Thailand, obviously the majority happening in China, one in the US so far. But of course, initial, as we were saying yesterday, knee-jerk reaction to what happened and certainly US equities did have a bit of response when it came and it was run on CNN, that initial headline about the first case in America. I mean, this was the response in the S&P 500 and it was fairly meaningful at the time. But as I said, once the rationale returns and if anything, the market then starts to recover and it was very similar price patent what we had yesterday morning with that overnight Asia extension of the losses only then to recover through the European morning and then the US have come in. First case in America, it's almost panic short-term and then we start to recover again. So I'm not expecting any further persistent weight on this issue, not unless, again, the numbers start to extrapolate and get much more far reaching and if it starts to hit other, let's say mainland European locations but not just people contracting but dying in the Western world and sure, then it starts to become a much bigger pressing issue and starts ramping up a few notches on the ability to move markets in a more sustained fashion. This was quite an interesting comment. I thought I would bring up a few different things here. One, from a statistical point of view, all the deaths that have happened from this virus, this coronavirus so far, have all happened in the city of Wuhan in China. So the others have been episodes where people have said to have contracted the virus but no deaths other than that city. Now, to a bit of context, Wuhan in China, I would presume that most people have not been to that city but that city is actually bigger than London. It's not even the biggest city in China by any stretch of the imagination but does put into context just a mammoth size of the population in mainland China. Interestingly though, of the people that have died, eight of which are men, they've all been aged between 61 to 87 and all have had pre-existing illnesses. So again, in terms of those being obviously most susceptible to the impact of a virus, so these have generally been elder people and also of a pre-existing condition. And so again, just to put a bit of context towards the kind of doom and gloom that obviously the press is spinning on this, I think it's definitely need to be a bit more rational in the way you approach a lot of these headlines, scratch beneath the surface and make a more informed decision yourself about the severity or possibility of this indeed becoming much more of a serious thing. So again, same status as yesterday, we remain vigilant, but it's not panicking us at all at this moment. And as I just said, Sam's still in that long position. So, I think that's testament to the fact of how much we see this being a risk or not, the fact that we're still long at this point in time. But this was something that Goldman says, this was just an interesting thing and certainly this isn't something that I would say would justify a short-term position in crude oil but again, for the ability to add some context, GS basically put out a note and they've said that they've done some back testing about how the oil market was reacting during the SARS virus. And they've said that coronavirus could result in a global demand in oil falling by about 260,000 brows per day this year with jet fuel accounting for around two thirds of the loss. That would probably lead then by their calculation to a $2.90 a barrel drop in oil prices. Projections translating the estimated SARS demand impact into 2020 volume. So, this was the graphic that Bloomberg are running in addition to some of that data from GS. And this is the Bloomberg Commodity Index and it's just looking back to 2003 of course when this was all breaking at the time the World Health Organization issuing their first global SARS alert came in March of 2003. And you can see here, commodity prices overall did take quite a severe hit at the time. However, soon as the WHO said that the world should be SARS free in two to three weeks, rampant return and this is not forgetting there's obviously other things that play in markets at that time but definitely this is not a small issue by any means. So again, one to be monitored to just see how it develops going forward. This was a really great tweet though I saw this morning and I think this was absolutely summarizes the current situation which is quite unusual at the moment. So this was a former, I think he's a former JP Morgan portfolio manager and he was basically tweeting the stock market couldn't be brought down by an impeachment couldn't be brought down by a war and can't be brought down by a pandemic. What left is there to be afraid of? I think that absolutely strikes the right tone at the moment. If you think about it, you've got the US president, the leader of the free world is trying to be thrown out of office. You've got potential world war happening out of tensions in the Middle East to kick off the year. And now you've got a potential episode of a global virus spreading. And nothing has dented, we're trading all time highs. What a world and time that we live in. But it does beg the question then, what exactly has got to happen for this market to go down? And don't get me wrong, I think a healthy correction for another push higher, I don't think is out of the realms of possibility. And of course that's a normal function generally of a market that's trending higher. But yeah, even if we get a substantial pull back and I think there was a couple of guys I was talking to here about, well, if we did get that pull back and I'm talking much more longer timeframe here, this was a chart I had with some markups from some previous discussions. But at what point does the market need to come back to where you'd want to be long again? And then obviously there's this long term, I know it's a bit difficult to see because my camera feeds slightly partially blocking it. But this is where we are at the moment right in this top right hand corner. But if you look at that trend channel which was very much in place in the beginning of 2018, the top side of that channel would come in around that 3,100 level and that's obviously a great area there. But there's lots of other areas in between, 3159, 3263, there's big levels of which even if there were concerted pullback in this market, I mean even to get back down to put it in a bit of context where we are right now at all time highs down to that level, I mean that's a 7.5% pullback which would be decent, that would be a sizeable reversal in markets. But for us to come back down south of that when we're talking 10, 15%, I just can't see it happening at the moment. And hence the reason why as per the outlook we issue at the beginning of the year still remain quite bullish for where we're gonna be at the end of the year in that respect, just given as well the necessity for Trump to massage his rhetoric and his promises and obviously the heightened importance of the value of the stock market for his popularity in order to bed in the second term. But yeah, some just broader macro thoughts that I'd share. A few other things. Where are we with the trade talks at the moment? Well, this is the latest kind of headlines. No date for phase two talks with the US just yet. I don't think that's unusual. I think this is basically the status quo for the moment which is they just wanna see how phase one gets implemented first. Trump obviously has given some mixed signals about wanting to get talks underway straight away but I don't think that's just him trying to make the most of the situation. I don't actually think that there's much drive on either side of the negotiating table for them to really push things forward too quick. If anything, it's the opposite. They'd wanna make this a long protracted period particularly on the US side in order that they get maximum pay off for keeping equities where they want it for the political narrative. This is the other thing that's been quite interesting. You remember Trump has been, at the end of last year there were obviously a lot of associated risks to the protectionist policy coming out of the US. This wasn't just about the US-China escalation and question marks and whether or not they would sign phase one but this was also targeting other trading partners and particularly a crucial one is the US and the Eurozone. But obviously in the last couple of days going into Davos, Trump has kind of changed tact and he's been fairly passive with France about this digital tax that the French have been wanting to put onto some of the big tech giants. And so Trump reaching a truce with Macron was quite a positive but Trump has also come out and basically reiterated his EU auto-tariff threat. So yeah, he's been quite positive actually at the moment. So he's definitely been eating the right corn flakes for the moment and he seems to be happy but obviously these things are subject to change but all good for the time being. And this of course coming with last night I'm not sure if you are watching but the Republican controlled US Senate voted early yesterday on party lines. So as you would expect, they approved the rules for Donald Trump's impeachment trial rejecting democratic efforts to obtain evidence and ensure witnesses are heard. So basically this playing out so far as you would imagine which although it's in the news I wouldn't say again it's a massive pressing feature of what you need to be worried about from a risk factor that will drive price action in the short term. Elsewhere talking about just general trade negotiations this was something in the telegraph and again I'm pointing this out just to make you aware of it but what I really want to say is that this really is not surprising at all. Basically the telegraph sources have reported that the European Union is preparing to offer the UK a trade deal on tougher terms than its deals with Canada, Japan and a host of other leading trade partners and this picture here of Boris and the EU president. So obviously there's been a bit of a standoff. We know the general strategy here Boris needs to remain credible about the threat of essentially no deal not requesting a transition to put the pressure on Europe so European response here are just playing the usual tactic in retaliation saying fine you're gonna get basically a worse deal than we're gonna give anyone else. Again this is the art of the deal so to speak and I would expect none the less so I don't see this as a negative for the pound. This is just a deal making and I wouldn't expect any movement on either side realistically really to come until a couple months down the road when we get to that end of June deadline when then the pressure's on whether Boris is gonna request an extension or not for the transition phase of course which is due to end at the end of 2020. Quickly earnings from the US state side there's two really to be aware of and both were fairly positive. Netflix shares were up in excess of 4% after market yesterday. Generally upbeat results. Overseas growth helping offset a general slowdown that we're seeing more domestic based in the US and seemingly just trying to appease shareholders that they're fighting off the attack coming from Apple, AT&T, Comcast, Disney was all competing services at the moment. They did say they're gonna boost spending on shows and movies by 20%. I think I read the number this morning. I think they're spending something like $12 billion on new content. It's just phenomenal. I mean the days of Hollywood are dead. I mean when Netflix is gonna start sweeping the Oscars and things like that I think there's an inevitability at this point. The world certainly on that side has changed. The other big company to report last night was IBM and that was actually quite interesting. Their shares also jumped after market last night. They reported revenues in the fourth quarter that beat analysts estimates. They broke a streak of five consecutive declines and it's pushed into hybrid cloud market slowly bearing some fruit as what analysts in Bloomberg are reporting this morning. Quick look at the calendar. What else have we got for the session ahead? Well, from the UK you've got public sector net borrowing. Not a great deal of interest in that to be honest from a pound trade possibility. So it really takes us into the US afternoon. Canadian data inflation at 130. US housing data we've got this afternoon. Then back to Canada for the rate decision. Expectations are for rates to remain on hold at the BOC. However, there is a few banks looking for a cut of 25. I'd say that is a lesser likely case. And then looking out for any accompanying commentary of course that they issue. And then you've got the oil infantry is out of the API this evening. Other than that, that's pretty much it. So general summary here, there's been again, short-term reaction to expansion of the location of where people are said to have contracted now this coronavirus moving to the States. This is just one person, but that in enough to see a bit of a knee-jerk reaction last night, but already recovered. So again, I would say what could happen here is a little bit of coronavirus fatigue as far as market participants are concerned. Unless we see a quite a severe escalation and particularly that then spreading into major Western cities and then subsequent deaths from this because all of those have occurred only in the city of Wuhan at the moment. Do I see that then having a more broader impact? Otherwise, earnings wise, generally positive from some of those big names as just mentioned, not really too much though, I'd say to really drive things completely. Let's not forget Boeing, the biggest component in the Dow was down about 3% yesterday after their 737 MAX jet was not cleared to fly until mid-year. So there are some individual stories to be aware of from the larger market cap perspective. But I'll leave it at that. I'll let Sam come on and I'll wish you a good day ahead. Thanks very much, guys. Hi guys, I hope all is well. 3,333, first time. We've said that for the S&P level that has been trading. It's actually trading there right now as well as you can see here on the futures. Four numbers exactly the same, unbelievable really. But the run seems to continue. So have a quick look at some potential areas today to be aware of. You can see the previous all-time high that we broke through in early hours of trade is also on the R1 today and yesterday evening's high. So let's have that marked up as a potential area where we could find support for another push to the upside. Today's pivot, which would be, give or take, 15 points away from where we're trading, decent price action there yesterday and then of course on the 20th on Monday and on Friday as well as a keeper. Keep a close eye on that, I would say. And it's really more a zone there unless we were to see price really get below there. I think you've got to remain happy to stay long. The same really for the Dow and the NASDAQ as well, but let's just have a quick look to see some of these trends from the bottom here. You can see certainly on the S&P there's ones just to keep an eye on from the 10th and then a couple of times on the 15th which at some point may well also align with that pivot. So just keep an eye on that if we do push lower. But in truth, I think you've got to prefer areas here to look to go long and continue this. Longer term levels for oil, I just want to bring in this. I know we sent out the strategy report on Monday with some of these longer term points, but just having a look here and you can see depending where you obviously get that trend line, but we're really respecting this one here on going back to October and another test yesterday on that. So keep a watch there for oil because obviously if that is to break to the downside, there could be a further run lower, I think, other than the low that we've had with the year, 56.79, previously the third of December high would be an obvious place to keep an eye on. Also to the upside, and I was looking at this, well the beginning of the week, just have a quick look at this, getting that fib from the higher of the year to roughly drawing this on now, but you can see that 38.2 would come in along with that double bottom from the 31st of December and then the first trading day of January as well. So keep a close eye perhaps on that. If we do retrace about a break of that trend line, we know oil can push quite quickly. Euro longer term levels, we confirm that break yesterday below this level and it is really key to see what happens really this week. I know we've got the ECB tomorrow, so it might just be worth holding your horses, but you can see just how clear and strong this area is. Buyers above sellers below, we're now back below there. Got a bit of support horizontally here on the low of the 12th of December, but I think confirm this week below 111.23 or even 111 if you wanted that extra confirmation and a drift down to some of these December lows isn't out the question. Looking more intraday, whether there's going to be much movement today in the Euro head of the ECB tomorrow, I think you'd have to wait and see. Pivot just a bit before that, really the higher the day, you can see the significance of that, basically the classic on that low braking. So above really the pivot, you'd be a bit more comfortable in looking to get along this market. And also just having to look at some of those previous highs, just getting squeezed in, probably worth as well, just having it on some potential trend lines if we were to, for whatever reason, get a decent push to the upside. However, I think you've got to, for now, anyway, prefer that look to go short. The pound, obviously we know about that longer term trend line that's held up just beautifully. Let's bring that in one more time. Done the daily chart. You can see starting here from the 8th of November. Let's get that on. Bring that in. Well, is that going to be the low? Time will tell, time will tell. And again, next Thursday, you have the Bank of England. So it remains to be seen what happens there. Are they going to cut? Are they going to keep it on hold? Seems pretty much 50-50 at the moment. Pivot, good price action around there yesterday on the breakthrough support today, 130-50 below that, 10 ticks or so. A previous high in the early hours yesterday before we did breakthrough as well on the data release, which was a bit of a relief rally. Can that continue or not remains to be seen? The bigger move for me is going to come either a break of that trend line or if we can really break out of one of these trends where we're also getting squeezed in from the upside. So they're the key levels, I would say, to keep a watch on the dollar index at the moment is slightly stronger as well. Gold yesterday, really nice opportunity, wasn't it, on the break of those trends that we had marked up during the briefing. You can see, look at that, beautiful, beautiful Purcellowa. Actually came back almost to retest it late last night for a second opportunity. If you didn't get in, I mean, on the five-minute and 15-minute candle, yes, they actually did come back to retest. I do believe you can see there, depending of course where you have that. But yeah, it came into our area of support where you'd expect support to be found. Those lows that we had back on the 15th and the 16th. So the first real test of that, that again, finds an area where the buyers come in. Gold for now, you've got to say that bigger move. If we can, you know, there's a longer term trend line as well. If we put this on the daily chart and for now that's sort of intact and we close back above. So still within this range, we get two excited bulls unless we can today and today get above that resistance level from last night. But of course, now keep an eye on where that trend line would reappear if we were to push to the upside. Where we're trading now, I think you've got to put this on the five minutes to show the significance. We broke through this Asian session. No came back to find resistance for what was then the high around 2 a.m. We're coming up to test that now. Maybe a shorter intraday line in the sand, minor resistance, we'll call it around there. The lows, double bottom, obviously a break of that could lead to another test of the low of yesterday which is a very key support level as well. I'm going to quick look over just the general beam. Again, let's just move this over there. S&P last trading at the four frees, still there, relatively quiet morning. I think you've got to prefer to look to go long. It's going to bring in the Dow, Jones, which is just hovering around this whole area of the last few days where a lot of resistance. Opportunity-wise, maybe post-cash over and above here, getting that extension through towards some of these more round numbers, 29,500, could we get there today? I'd be surprised, but above these resistance points, that would be the obvious target for me there. I hope everyone has a good trading day and as usual, any questions, please do get those in the chat. Couple of interesting levels to consider today and also on that longer and medium timeframe, should we break any of those trend lines or support resistance levels, we could see things to start to pick up again. I hope everyone has a good one and catch you all later on.