 Good morning and welcome to the week ahead video with me David Madden. Today's date is Friday the 28th of August 2020 and the time has just gone 1147 British summer time And I'm looking ahead to next week, which is Monday the 31st of August until Friday the 4th of September and Today's markets are being European equity markets. I've been recently mixed. It's been a recently muted session We've had a couple of big stories in the past 24 hours Yesterday, we heard we had the Jackson Hole symposium kickoff in the US Jerome Powell the head of the Fed Came out and said it's come out and stated that the US central bank is going to be altering its Its inflation policy so it's not going to be aiming for having an average inflation target of 2% So therefore they're going to allow inflation to run beyond 2% For some time they're deliberately vague with that remark because obviously they want to keep a very loose Monetary policy in place to help cushion the blow of the COVID-19 crisis So they don't want to be constrained by all no inflation's risen We have to actually look the Titan policy which could hamper the recovery They did state though that it isn't it kind of it is a very big rise up in inflation They would look at altering their policy But it's very clear the Fed reserve a content for inflation to run beyond 2% for some time Even though hasn't actually got that at 2% level as of yet We had a mixed session in Europe yesterday Well in the world Europe closed lower the US stocks largely closed higher today It's a bit of a mixed bag in Europe In the last number of hours. We've heard some pretty significant news out of Japan Shinzo Abe the Japanese Prime Minister is going to be is going to resign for health issues This had a quite a big impact on both the Japanese yen and the Nikkei 225 Mr Abe is associated with extremely loose fiscal and monetary policy of the Abe economics as is referred to a very kind of aggressive policy of Essentially spending to drive up to drive down the volume of the Japanese yen and in turn trying to stimulate the economy Himself and mr. Korona of the of the Bank of Japan is kind of his partner in crime as you were They're they're kind of together. They're kind of associated with a very Very much throwing money at the problem So when I was announced that mr. Abe the Prime Minister will be resigning We saw a sharp move to the upside in the Japanese yen and conversely We saw a sharp move to the downside in the the Nikkei 225 What I'll do is I'll run through some of the major indices see how they're fairing I look at the major currency pairs and then also Talk about the big events of next week and the biggest event of next week ahead in shoulders is the US non-farm payrolls report In fact, I'm going to be hosting a webinar on it next week You can find it on our website under a CMC markets calm under insights webinars and events You can sign up for it here on Friday the 4th of September kicking off at 1315 British summer time So what I quickly do is I take a look at what's going on on the on the foot to 100 to start off with We can see here on the wider trend But basically since the since since late March it's been it's been to the upside But if you look at the price action between June until now, we see a few lower lows and lower highs So it kind of the bias kind of remains to the downside and essentially why we hold below this blue line here The fifth of the moving average in a 3138 it's likely we could see further Further move to the downside we're currently trading basically in around the kind of 6,000 mark So if we do have a fairly significant move below this level, we could be like you're heading back down towards this zone here The layer that the lows for late July in around 5852 should we retake the fifth of the moving average at 6138 we could be looking at retesting the mid-august highs I could go beyond that you could be heading up towards this zone here in around 3,000 sorry 6,000 three three hundred and forty three thousand six hundred forty two there they're about Let's take a look at what's going on over in Germany The wider trend to the upside the wider trend for the last months is the very much to the upside Even though the highs of August have yet I haven't actually taken out the highs of July is still very much in upper trend the lows have been higher We're kind of comfortably above this blue line here the fifth of the movie average, which comes into play at 12,740 and while we remain above that metric and what we remain above 13,000 It's likely we could see further gains being achieved if you take out the highs of July it could take us back to levels last seen it kind of late ish February in around 13,500 and if you go beyond that We could be looking at retesting the all-time highs that were achieved kind of in the middle of February just before the COVID-19 crisis really kicked off So we can see here that the FTSE 100 has been kind of broadly kind of moving to the downside the last couple of months The DAX is in a strong position, but hasn't really gotten hasn't retested its most recent highs We're coming out now to the S&P 500 500 And we can really show you how the kind of US markets are kind of in a league of their own The US 500 I said the US S&P 500 I've been setting have been kind of notching up all-time highs recently. In fact, you know We're currently expecting the S&P 500 when cash trading gets underway to open to open around We'll just shy of 3500 it's possible we could see yet another record high today It's in a very much in the upward trend if we do see any kind of move to the downside Support could be found from this zone here in around 3400 and if you go below that support could be found from this area in around 3350 I Take a look now at what's going on over in Japan The Nikkei 225 as I mentioned there's a sharp move to the downside On the back of the news that our Prime Minister Abe will be resigning You know the broad move for the last few months has been to the upside It wasn't it was only early this week You know Highs that were achieved this week. We have we're actually we're multi-month highs They're the highs that were seen in kind of late February as the crisis was kicking was that was kind of starting out We traded down below the fifth of the moving average this blue line here But we're still comfortable to be back above it So if you can remain above it is like the wider upper trend could continue And if you take out the recent highs we could then be heading up towards this zone here in around 23,800 I'll take a look now what's going on on the dollar yen as I mentioned there's a lot of volatility And the last 24 hours both the comments from Mr. Paula at the Jackson wholesome podium that the US is going to get on the route of having Average inflation target of 2% as opposed to a fixed target up to of 2% So it's a lot a lot of volatility in the U.S. dollar yesterday and the last few hours the news that mr Abbey when we step in down has put a huge upward pressure on the Japanese end and in turn downward pressure on the On the U.S. dollar So take a look at the price action for the last few months Broad even moving to the downside We can notice on a few occasions this yellow line here the 100 a moving average active niceness as a Resistance we're still very much even to even the highs of today's session didn't even properly Re-test it and then we had the aggressive move of the downside on the news of the abbey resignation We can see here at this candle here as the potential to be a bearish engulfing whereby This red red rectangle here of the entire body of this of this candle is essentially engulfing all of the positive move the positive body from yesterday So if we do have further losses on on dollar yen We could like heading back towards the lows of mid-august in at 105 spot 10 And if you go below that we could look you can then be looking heading down toward this area here in at one four 104 spot 18 And you move to the upside could run run into resistance from the 100 a moving average Just shy of 107 and if you go beyond that we could then be looking headed towards this red line here The journey will be average which comes into play just just just just below 108 Take a look now what's going on on the Euro versus the US dollar broadly speaking the dollar has been weak recently, you know It was not long ago. It was only the end of the middle of August The US dollar index felt dropped to its lowest level in 27 months Conversely, this is when Euro dollar hit its highest level in In in in over two years, so we're still very much in the upward trend We're like we look to be retesting we could be retesting the recent highs or pushing higher today If you move on to the and if you retake the recent highs of mid-august We could then be heading up towards the kind of one spot 20 area Any moves to the downside in Euro dollar could find some support from this area here in at one spot 16 96 sorry one spot 16 96 a move below that could take us back down towards one spot 16 Take a look now lasting terms of currency pairs Charts pound dollar pound dollar is actually, you know, even even today's upward move We've got a new multi-month high that we've taken out one spot 32 84. So now back at levels last seen It's in December Kind of mid December as far as pound dollar is concerned So still very much in an upward trend part, you know, largely driven by the weakness in the dollar Particularly because of the yen is really kind of pressurizing the dollar at the moment So if I do kind of press on higher from here, we could be looking at heading up towards 130 heading up towards this area here in at one spot 30 30 once about 35 15 the levels that were seen in the December and kind of post election high of the middle of December In terms of a major kind of events to look off for next week As I mentioned uf non-farm payrolls is by far the biggest one and please sign up for our webinar And the most recent jobs jobs report 1.76 million jobs were created They can sense this estimate so far could change is expected for 1.55 million jobs to be created Economists are also predicting a dip in unemployment. It's already unemployment rate has already fallen It's a columnist so far expecting it to fall further. They're expecting to fall below 10% Also keep an eye out on average earnings because if average earnings falls that could be a sign That more and more people are returning to the workforce because a lot of people in Jobs, which are typically lower paid such as retail or hospitality a lot of those have been impacted by the COVID-19 crisis and if we and if they're returning to work there in effect the The pool of workers is increasing and therefore we could see a decline in the average earnings rate so ordinarily falling an average in normal circumstances would be a bad thing for the economy because People who are less tend to spend less but in this case it could be a sign that more people are returning to the economy Also for next week keep an eye out for we have the we quite a few service reports from from China from the main Eurozone The main Eurozone countries from the UK from the US We also have an infrastructure station from the Reserve Bank of Australia as every as we do every single week We have the US jobless claims That's going to be kind of a give us a bit of flavor what's going on in the US jobs market Speaking of the state of the US economy. We also have the US beige book That's going to give us an update on how things are performing in the US jobs market on the corporate front We're gonna have a full year figures from bar developments Now a common enough theme of that of the British house builders recently has been that the figures for the time period You know have actually been quite poor because essentially construction was ground to a halt because of the pandemic But keep an eye out for the older book because it seems to me that work that was basically It's meant to get done in this Financial year has actually been pushed back to the next financial year And if you know if you look at right move at transactions transaction level, they may have been extremely robust So there is demand out there. So keep an eye out for the actual older book and the kind of comments in relation to guidance We also have an update first-time figures from restaurant group They've obviously had a quite a tough time because of the pandemic and and turning on to company other companies that have numbers out next week Zoom and communications have second-quarter numbers. This is one of the kind of tech stocks. That's really kind of flown Because of the crisis in the kind of the fact that a Huge amount of business meetings were not conducted by a zoom calls rather than face-to-face They've had seen a surgeon activity on the back of the pandemic and we also have updates from brown foreman They're the company the spirits company which make you know Jack Daniels whiskey that well-known brand And we also have quality figures from DocuSign yet again another company another tech company That's managed to do quite well out of the pandemic Now thanks for listening. That's all from this week. Have a good trading week and good luck