 Good afternoon. Happy New Year and welcome to our webinar. I'm Paula Feldman, Director of Business Intelligence with PMMI. Today we will hear from Jonathan Murphy, Research and Consulting Economist with ITR Economics. Jonathan will be covering the findings of PMMI's First Quarter 2016 Quarterly Economic Outlook Report. Jonathan provides economic consulting services for small businesses, trade associations, and Fortune 500 companies across the spectrum of industries. That economic insight and forecasting experience plays a key role in ITR's economics 94.7 accuracy rating. Since 2011, when Jonathan started with ITR, he's helped domestic and global companies maximize profitability by applying business cycle analysts to strategic management decision making. Jonathan's research is on the cutting edge in business applications of leading indicator analysis and industrial forecasting. Jonathan graduated from Framingham State University with a BA in economics and he specializes in international economics. Today Jonathan will interpret the information included in the Quarterly Outlook and provide insight on how today's economy may be affecting your packaging and processing operations. If you have any questions during the webinar that you would like to ask Jonathan, please type your questions in the chat box that's located on the right-hand corner of the screen. The presentation should last approximately 30 to 45 minutes and at the end of the presentation we'll be able to answer all your questions at that point. So now I'd like to welcome Jonathan and hand the webinar over to him. Thank you Paula. Good afternoon everyone and happy new year. As Paula said I am John Murphy from ITR Economics and this webinar today will be split into about three different pieces. The first 15 minutes or so we will be talking about ITR economics outlook for the overall economy specifically with the US industrial production as our benchmark. Then we will look at the individual markets included in the PMMI report and finally look at some of the international markets, look at the international stage. That should leave us about 15, 20 minutes for question and answer and I look forward to helping all of you as we progress not only through this webinar but also through 2016. Before we get into the meat of the webinar I want to spend just a couple of minutes talking about some of the terms and terms that you'll encounter as I go through this webinar and this report. Some of these may be familiar to you especially as you have looked through the report in the past. At ITR economics our focus is primarily on what we call data trends and rates of change. Data trends are just monthly moving totals or averages as necessary. We focus primarily on what we call the 12 month moving total or 12 MMT. The 12 month moving total is annual activity, annual sales, annual production, things like that. That gives us the long term outlook, the long term trend that helps smooth out any seasonal volatility, helps smooth out any one month anomalies that might occur and gives us the overall picture. To a lesser extent we use a 3 month moving total or average. That is for seasonality and it helps us look at how seasonal trends compare. The 3 month moving total also helps give us an idea on what's going on with the 12 month moving total. If the seasonal trend is more severe than usual then we can begin to get an idea of what will happen with the 12 month moving total as we progress. In a 12 month moving total that's exactly what it sounds like. It's just the most recent 12 months added together and it gives us this overall outlook. We also focus on rates of change. Rates of change are just growth rates. The two primary ones that you'll hear me talk about in this webinar and that you'll see in your report are the 12-12 rate of change. That looks like a fraction when we write it out 12 divided by 12. That is the growth rate of your 12 month moving total. It's comparing the 12 month moving total in the current month. It's rate of growth from the same month last year. For example, if a 12 month moving total is say 4% that means the 12 month moving total is 4% higher in the current month than it was this time last year. When we talk about annual rates of change, annual growth, that's what we're referring to the 12-12 rate of change. The 3-12 rate of change is the same mathematics but you're comparing the current three month moving total to the same period last year. This we'll often refer to as quarterly growth rate or the 3-12 rate of change. They're one and the same. What we do then to help visualize everything is we chart the 12-12 rate of change as a time series, as a line graph. That allows us to see what the direction of the 12-12 where it's going. That is important because it gives us where we are in the phase of the business cycle. Where your individual business is, where your company is, where your industry is and the business cycle is important because you're going to want to do different actions in different phases. When the 12-12 is negative but it's rising on the chart, that's what we call phase A recovery. That is a period your sales or your industry on an annual basis is still below the year ago level but the rate of decline is either slowing or things are starting to get better but not quite above year ago levels yet. Once the 12-12 rate of change surpasses and moves into positive territory and it is rising on the chart in front of us, that's the green part, it's phase B growth of the business cycle. This is the best phase of the business cycle. It's when your activity is increasing the fastest, you're feeling busy and everybody's happy. The following phase, so the 12-12 rate of change is still positive but the 12-12 is increasingly getting smaller. That's what we call phase C slower growth of the business cycle. It's the orange section on the chart in the slide in front of you. Slower growth, the way to think about this phase is you're driving in your car on the highway and you take your foot off the gas pedal. You're still moving forward but moving forward at a slower pace. Phase C is still a growth period but the growth is slowing its rate of rise. Finally, the red phase down here is phase D recession. Your 12-12 is negative, meaning your annual sales are contracting compared to the same time last year and that rate of decline is increasing. As we progress through the different phases, different management objectives need to be applied when you're in phase D. For example, you wouldn't want to necessarily be hiring right at that time. That's just obvious but that is why we look at the phases of the business cycle and in the reports why we report the phases to you. So let's take a look at our overall US economic forecast. US total industrial production is our benchmark for the overall economy. Last month in December, ITR economics, we revised our forecast. It was a minor change but it was necessary. Our previous forecast we had established with data through July 2014 and actually through December that data came smack in line with our forecast. However, the leading indicators, purchasing managers index, US leading indicator, ITR leading indicator, they were all suggesting that the US economy was still going to grow but that period of slower growth would persist longer into 2016 than we originally forecast. We were anticipating a 12-12 low for US industrial production in early 2016 and then we would see accelerating growth through the end of the year. However, our new forecast is to see slower growth through the first half of 2016 but then accelerating growth in the second half of the year and into early 2017. The lighter blue dots I should say on this chart are our old forecasts that you have seen in most of your PMMI reports over the past year. The orange is the new forecast that you will see in the upcoming report next month. You can see that there is similarity between the two because we are still forecasting growth over the next several years through 2018. The pace is a little bit more moderate and where we were originally forecasting to see stronger growth in the second half of 2016. It's now more towards late 2016, early 2017 that we will be seeing the strongest growth in US industrial production. Additionally, what I want to point out with this forecast is we are calling for the next macroeconomic US recession to occur in 2019. This is the downward slope that you see in 2019. This is still many years out, but it is something to keep in mind. However, when you are conducting your planning sessions, plan on about three years of growth for your company. We are looking at positivity in 2016 straight on through 2018. Another one of our major macroeconomic indicators that we had to re-forecast was non-defense capital goods new orders. This does play into many of your forecasts as well, considering this is capital equipment. Non-defense capital goods new orders is currently in phase D recession right now. This is the 1212 rate of change plotted, and you can see it is below the zero line and FONG, so that is our phase D. The green dots were our previous forecast, and the blue dotted lines is our new forecast, the bounds of our new forecast. With non-defense capital goods, we were expecting more of a V-shaped recovery, as you can see in the green dots. We've basically elongated that. It's more of a U-shaped recovery now. 2016 is still going to be a better year for non-defense capital goods new orders than it was last year, and that's definitely positive for PMM members. The reason for this forecast change primarily comes from mining. The mining sector, which includes oil and gas, has really been a drag on the U.S. economy in 2015. We've seen falling commodity prices, oil prices, metal prices, things like that, and a lot of miners and drillers have cut back on their equipment, and that's a lot of the reason why we've seen this decline in non-defense capital goods new orders. However, some of our leading indicators are suggesting that this phase A recovery trend is approaching. Even though we do have recovery coming, we expect it will be more modest, as you can see, primarily because we're not expecting commodity prices to rise considerably in 2016 compared to our previous forecast when we were expecting this more V-shaped. We do expect some price rise, but it will be much more modest, more moderate than we had previously anticipated. Non-defense capital goods, the 12-month moving total. As you can see here, the green dots, again, the previous forecast, the blue dots are the more recent one. You can see that it is a longer, more slow recovery than we were previously forecasting, more of a U-shape rather than a V-shape and non-defense capital goods. These two points to a relatively soft industrial side of the economy right now. Overall, I want to drive home the point that our expectations for 2016, 2017, 2018 haven't changed a whole lot. The year-end values have, but we are expecting 2016 to be a better year than 2015. That's consistent with our forecast from July, 2014. We expect 2017 will be an even better year and even 2018 will be a stronger year. It's towards 2019 before we see our next macroeconomic U.S. recession. So we've seen softness in mining and the utility side of the economy. Manufacturing is still growing, although it is in phase C. The manufacturing side has grown through 2015. But there are other headlines that don't necessarily show up in that U.S. industrial production number immediately that I wanted to tell and why we're not expecting a recession right now in the U.S. economy. First off, retail sales, excluding fuel sales, are up almost 5%, up 4.8%. The overall, the headline retail sales number that the news like to our opponent, they include fuel prices. They include fuel sales. Well, gasoline prices have fallen considerably over the past year and that has dragged down in nominal terms and dollar terms retail sales overall. When we take out that, when we adjust for the prices, we're looking at almost 5% growth. The U.S. consumer is very strong right now. What's driving that growth is real wages are rising. By real wages, I mean wages adjusted for inflation. This is a double-edged sword. For retailers, for consumers, it's a positive thing. Even if a person's paycheck hasn't changed a whole lot, prices aren't eating away and they have more money, more discretionary income in their pockets that they are spending and saving to some extent. The other side of that is when you are making your hiring decisions in 2016 and probably also 2017, you're going to be paying your workers a higher wage and you might not be able to increase your prices to help compensate for that. So it is one thing to keep in mind as you're moving forward in 2016. Are there any ways that you can increase efficiency with your current labor force? Any ways that you can help promote automation? This can also help work for your sales as manufacturers rely more on automation to help offset some of these real wages. The construction side of the economy is also very positive right now. Residential housing starts are up 10.9% through November and non-residential construction is up 9%. So we're seeing some very positive momentum right now in the overall US economy. That's part of the reason why US industrial production has not fallen into recession right now and why we don't expect it. Housing starts acts as a leading indicator for the US economy as does retail sales. So the fact that these numbers are up 10.9% and 4.8% respectively suggests that we will start to see some of that accelerating growth that we're forecasting for US industrial production in the second half of this year. So this was the overall picture of the economy, but let's take a look at some of the specific markets that are included in your report. First off we have pharmaceutical and medical device production. Overall in this industry we're looking at steady growth through 2017, 4.6% growth in 2016, 3.5% growth in 2017. The industry isn't phase C decelerating growth, so that it is growth but it's growing at a slower rate. Where there are opportunities in this market, two main areas. One in the electromedical side, so that's the wearable tech, that's the heart monitors, the electrical side, the electronic gadget side of medical devices. That's growing very strongly right now. On the pharmaceutical side we're also seeing some good growth coming from drugs and medicine production. The FDA in 2015 has been improving drugs at a rate not seen since the mid-90s. They've approved more drugs last year than they have in almost 20 years. As these are now coming towards the market, we'll likely see increased demand. We suspect that the pharmaceutical side will be picking up as well. These will contribute to the accelerating growth that we're forecasting for this series, beginning actually rather imminently. We expect a low to form this quarter, and then next quarter you should start to see some accelerating growth in activity for your for those of you dealing with this particular market. Another positive market right now is food and food preparation. Unlike the overall economy, which is in phase C, food and food prep is in phase B, accelerating growth of the business cycle right now. However, growth is not uniform throughout this industry. We are seeing particularly very strong growth in animal food production, and that is both food for cats and dogs and domestic animals, but as well as food for livestock. We're seeing strong growth in that area. Meat production has rebounded and is doing nicely, but there's negativity developing in several other industry segments. Dairy production has fallen. We're starting to see weakness in sugar and candy confections, the sweet side of business. We're also seeing some decline in preserved food production. That is something to keep in mind, and this seems to be a general trend in the overall economy. One thing that we'll talk about in a couple of slides is a decline in soda production. There is a move in the U.S. economy right now moving away from processed foods, from sweet foods, from I guess generally speaking the sin foods to use a colloquial term, and more towards healthy alternatives, organics to some extent, and fresh foods. So even though food products overall is rising and will continue to grow through 2017, some of the less healthy stuff you would likely see less demand from as we progress over the next couple of years. Personal care products, as this is a consumer-related industry, this is growing right now, up 5.6% over the past year, and generally we're going to see growth in personal care products over the next couple of years. With real wages rising, with employment boosting, this highly consumer-based industry will continue to expand and should be a growth area for PMMI members, not only in the near term, not only this year, but even into 2017 and 2018. I would expect that we would not see any over decline in this particular industry until we move closer to the next recession in 2019. Beverage is coffee and tea production. This forecast we are currently reviewing and you will likely see an updated version in the next PMMI report, which is due next month. But this is a positive industry right now. It's growth is above year or go levels right now at 0.2%. But we're seeing positivity in a lot of different segments. Coffee and tea production in particular is growing well. Anything related to liquor production, wine, hard liquor, distilleries, we're seeing increase in production. There are even breweries, beer breweries, which have recently shown some weakness. We're starting to see some recovery trend in brewery production. I know I have mentioned this in the past, but I think it's worth mentioning again with breweries, we're seeing a lot of strong growth out of the microbrew market. As a matter of fact, a new report released by the Brewers Association of America reports that approximately one new micro brewery opens up a day in America. So that's a strong market. It won't be as reliable as, say, sales to Budweiser or sales to Coors Miller, any of the big ones. But it is a growing market that I think has some potential for PMMI members if you are willing to chase small clients. As I talked about earlier, we have some weakness coming from soda production. Any of the sugary drink productions, actually, that is a drag. Right now it's the only segment of beverage and coffee and tea production that is currently in phase D. So sodas, the unhealthy beverages, are showing some sign of weakness, but liquor, coffee, breweries, juices, those are showing more potential right now in beverage and coffee production in 2016. Chemicals and cleaning products. This is another area that is currently outperforming our forecast, and you will likely see another, you will likely see an upgrade to this forecast in the next report. Generally speaking, this is, the US is right now a very positive market for chemicals and cleaning products production. We have very low energy costs compared to the rest of the world. We've seen some chemical factories moving in from Europe, from China into the United States to open up new plants, very closely tied to the consumer market as well, which is likely driving some of this positivity. So overall, the chemical cleaning products market, very positive right now, and we suspect that China will continue through 2017 and into 2018 as well. Positive growth for this market. One other thing to keep in mind is we have seen building construction, chemical plant construction almost double in the past year. It's grown 99.7% in 2015 compared to 2014. That's a lot of new buildings that are coming online, a lot of new buildings that will be needing machinery to fill them. So I think there will be a demand for PMMI members sales as we go through 2016 coming from that construction alone. Last major PMMI specific market is durables, hard goods and components, very consumer related. This market has been generally growing. We've seen some nice steady growth since the end of the 2008 recession. That is a trend we expect will continue through 2016-2017. We're going to see some accelerating growth in the second half of this year, and then some slowing growth as we transverse through 2017. But overall, durables and hard goods will be seeing growth, especially anything that's tied to home improvement or home construction. So talked about at the beginning, we've seen housing starts rising, wholesale trade of furniture and furniture retail sales are growing as well. People are building homes, they're renovating their homes, and they're buying new furniture, new hard goods and durables to fill up their homes, to improve their cars, to improve their lives. So this is a positive market benefiting from the consumer sales, benefiting from those rising real wages that we expect will continue over the next three years. Excuse me. So we talked a lot about the US. Let's take a look at the international picture and what's going on globally. Before I go into some of the individual countries, individual regions, let's talk the big picture. The good news is most of the world is doing well right now. I'm going to point out some key areas specifically Latin America that is not doing well right now. But overall, most of the world is looking pretty good. And that stands to benefit US exporters. And even the US importers to some extent, because we expect as the global economy slowly improves the US dollar, which has been relatively strong over the past year, we expect that will weaken a little bit as we progress through 2016, not significantly, but we will see some weakening. And that will reduce the cost advantage that importers have had for, or I should say that imported machinery, imported goods have had against domestically produced. So if you're competing against clients, against competitors who use far-made components and they've been able to under-price you, undercut your prices, we expect that some of that advantage will be evaporating in 2016. So let's take a look at Canada first, our neighbor to the north. The Canadian industrial production is technically in phase D recession right now. We've seen the industry contract over the past year, but that's primarily because of oil prices. I want to point out that unlike US industrial production, and most of the other production series that are measured in an index, Canada industrial production is measured in Canadian dollars. And the falling value of oil has reduced the prices received, and has reduced that in turn, Canada industrial productions Canadian dollar value. Other segments, the retail side, the construction side of Canada are improving right now. So there is still growth in Canada outside of the oil sectors, outside of Alberta and the tar sands area. Looking at North America as a whole, we can see that Canada is kind of the outlier here. The US is growing, Mexico is growing. Granted, fairly modest paces, 1.9% of the US, 1.4% Mexico. But North America as a whole is still the major growth in engine outside of the Canadian oil industry. Looking to Latin America, South America, this is what I hinted at a couple of minutes ago. Latin America right now is still very negative. We've seen, it's in phase D recession, Brazil is the main driver of weakness in the region. Although there are other countries that are declining, Brazil being the largest economy, they are the one driving most of this decline. Some of it is commodity based. A lot of these economies are based off of mining, off of ethanol, off of oil. And with the fall in commodity prices globally, they've cut back, they've had to cut back on some of their production, especially some of the Pacific countries that are tied with trade to China. As China's economy has slowed over the last year, China has been cutting back on the metals that they've purchased, the metals that they've consumed. And some of the Latin America countries that are heavily tied in trade with China have really started to feel some of that pinch. Although we do expect Latin America to shift into an overall phase A recovery trend, it's going to be very mild and 2016 will still end below the 2015 level. 2017 will be a growth year, but very modest, just 0.4%. Latin America, if you are willing to sit on investments, now is a good time to purchase competitors in Latin America or purchase property, purchase any kind of resources that you need down in Latin America if you're willing to sit on them. But as far as active selling goes, it'll be a difficult environment through at least 2017. As I said at the beginning, Brazil is the main driver of decline in the market. Peru, Chile, Argentina are also all contracting. Ecuador and Colombia, we're seeing some mild improvements. So there are opportunities in South America, but overall on the largest economies and the commodity-based economies, it's a difficult environment for active selling. Europe, however, Europe is improving. We have actually recently upward revised our forecast for Europe industrial production. It is in phase B accelerating growth, growing a nice 1.5% over where it was last year. We expect this growth will persist through 2016 and 2017 and might even approach the pre-recession peak by the time we end 2017. Europe has benefited through trade with the United States being, as we were essentially the only one of the fastest-growing economies in the world in 2015. And a relatively weak euro has made exports from Europe into the United States very profitable. The automobile industry in particular is driving growth in Europe as well as a generally improving consumer market. And also the growth is fairly widespread throughout Europe. The problem areas are of course Ukraine with their civil war, Greece still in area, Switzerland, Netherlands, Belgium. So a couple of areas that are contracting, but the major economy, the UK, Germany, France, Poland, and the East, Turkey, Spain, they're all growing and they're looking pretty positive right now. Ireland growing strongly as well. So overall there is growth in Europe, which is a nice pace and will help solve some of the currency issues that I mentioned a little bit ago. Excuse me. Final region that we're looking at is Southeast Asia. Although this region does not specifically include China, there's a lot of trade with Southeast Asia and China. So a lot of the weakness that we're seeing right now in Southeast Asia, it's just 0.4% growth, excuse me, has been because there's been less demand, less trade with China. The good news for this region, they also do a lot of business with the United States, automobile parts, electronics, things like that come from Southeast Asia. And we expect as the US economy accelerates in 2016 and to a lesser extent China. So will Southeast Asia. We're also starting to see some improvement coming out of Japan. According to US industrial production, Japan has been in the recession through most of 2015. They have only recently shifted into phase A recovery. And growing Japan, growing United States and accelerating, modestly accelerating, I should say modestly accelerating China in 2016 will help spur some of this growth in the region. Taking a wider look at Asia, China talked about at 6.3%. It's a very slow growth rate for what they have had in the past. China has in the past been growing at double digit rates. This is the slowest since the depths of the Asian financial crisis in the late 90s. But generally speaking, we're seeing some positivity throughout the region. Singapore is contracting though at minus 4.4% Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea is falling as I talked a little bit about Japan. But some of the other areas are seeing some positivity right now. So Southeast Asia flow in the near term, but then accelerating growth in the second half of 2016 and growth in 2017 as well. And so at this time, I would like to open it up to questions. We've covered a lot of ground and I would like to make sure that I have plenty of time to answer the questions you have. Thanks so much, John. It was a great, excuse me, it was a great report that you put out and great information that you shared with us. Is it possible, can you share more detail on the exchange rate U.S. versus major currencies? Well, that is a little bit more detail than I have prepared. As far as major currencies like the Euro, the U.S. exchange rate, well, the U.S. right now, the U.S. dollar is very strong right now compared to most currencies. I don't think that's news to anybody. A lot of that has been because the global economy has been very soft right now. As a lot of these regions that we talked about improve next year, expect the U.S. dollar will lose some of its value, not all of it. We're not talking a huge devaluation in 2016, but start to see some weakening of the U.S. dollar, particularly against the Euro, the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, Japanese yen to some extent. However, the Brazilian real, some of the South American economy, South American currencies, we're not likely to see some major devaluation just because as we talked about there's weakness in South America that we're not expecting to dissipate anytime soon. Super, thank you. How concerned should we be about rising interest rates in 2016? Well, so the Federal Reserve, they did raise their interest rates a little bit at the end of the year, up just a quarter of a percent. We expect interest rates will be rising very modestly in 2016, not 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 percent. The economic growth isn't there for that kind of rise, but we are expecting some modest interest rate rise in 2016. That can actually be a good thing as it might spur some investors, some people have been looking to borrow, but really have been putting it off, hesitating because interest rates have been so low. This nudge might be enough like, hey, I got to borrow now because interest rates are going up. So we are expecting actually to see a little take up in commercial and industrial credit and this is actually driving some of our expectation for accelerating growth in non-defense capital goods new orders in the latter half of this year. We did take into account the interest rate rise when we did our new forecast and you can see we're not expecting it to really derail our forecast. So be aware of the interest rate rise, but don't expect such a small, modest change to put screeching brakes on the economy. Okay. Another question we have is, and bear with me one minute while I go back to it. Why do you see a US dollar weakening in 2016? So primarily it's growing economic activity in the rest of the world. For the last, I'm going to say 12 to 18 months, the US even though we've been growing slow has been pretty much the economy in the world to use one of my favorite metaphors, where the least ugly dog in the pageant and that has brought a lot of money to the United States which in turn, excuse me, which in turn has strengthened our currency versus some of the others. With the growth that we're looking at in Europe, with the growth looking at in South, I almost said South America, but that's not right, Australia, Japan, we're expecting to be in recovery. We're expecting to see some movement in China on the latter half of this year. These will help combat a little of the rise in the US dollar that we've seen and help devalue it a little bit. Again, we're not talking a massive provision or massive devaluation in the dollar, but we're forecasting that its strength, its current strength will likely be weakened a little bit in 2016. Very good. Any greater detail on the recession in 2019? How deep might it be? How long might it go? The recession in 2019, it will be about as deep as the recession in the early 1990s. We're not calling for another 2008. It will only be in 2019 as well, so a relatively mild, relatively short recession. At this point, we don't have a lot of physical indicators to point at. It's still, at this point, a little bit theoretical. We've been forecasting and analyzing US economic trends. Well, our founder was doing it during the Great Depression, then he founded the company in 1946. We've been looking at these for years, and we found that a recession occurs approximately every 10 years or so, give or take. 2019 would be at this point when we're expecting the next recession, because it has been about 10 years since the 2008 recession. As we progress through this year, we'll start to some of our longest term indicators, like corporate bond prices. They'll start to give us an idea of what's going on in 2018, 2019. Stay tuned. Over the next year, we'll start to get more and more information, especially as we move through 2017. At this point, in regards to 2019, I don't have anything that I can point to hard and fast and say, this will be what causes it. I wanted to mention it to keep in the back of your minds, but for the next three years, 16, 17, and 18, look at growth, look at expansion, look at improving your business. So when the next recession does come, whether it be in 2019 or 2020, your business will be in a better position. Even when the recession comes, even if your sales fall, you'll still be in a better place at that point than you are right now. Great. Thank you so much, John. We have one final question that is top of mind of everybody, because it seems to be a hot topic right now. We all know why. Will the presidential election affect the forecast? What can you glean on this topic? That's an excellent question, and it's one thing that we've looked at in the past, and we, in our research, we found that presidential elections don't have huge impacts on the economy with rare exceptions. Obviously, in the 1930s with the New Deal legislation, when you have something massive like that that comes along, that will have an effect, but the presidential election itself, not so much, and even should it, we really won't start to see the effects until late 2018 anyway. And let me just kind of spell that out. So we have an election November 2016. Whoever gets elected and the new Congress, they don't get sworn in until January of 2017. Even if they pass a brand new budget on day one of the new Congress, that won't go into effect for another year until September 2017, the new fiscal year in the government. So we really won't start to see the effects until 2018. That said, we do monitor. We do look at when legislation is passed, when budgets are passed, we do look at that. But as of the election itself, we do not expect that it will derail our forecast as it is right now. Great information. Thanks again, John. All of your insight on the economic situation, its effect on the members and their competitive position they might have has been fantastic. I want to thank you for that. On behalf of PMMI, I want to thank everyone for participating in today's webinar. Just as a note, you will receive an email to complete the evaluation on today's webinar or it'll pop up when I close the webinar out. Please let us know how we're doing. Please let us know what topics you might like to see other webinars on besides the quarterly economic. And this webinar will be posted on PMMI.org, no later than Monday. And thank you once again, John, and everyone in attendance. Thank you. Have a good afternoon. You too. Thanks again.