 If your statement starts, I think, right, thinking is not good, right? It's all about data, it's all about data confirmation. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to a Monday edition of the Access a Trader dot com nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing well, hope everybody had a great weekend. Just kind of a quick review. Last week snapped a four week rally that we've seen very, very aggressively on the Q's, all the major indexes and the question going into this week was, well, is this a normal orderly kind of back test, healthy back test with these stocks to kind of regroup, right? Regroup, get their feet underneath themselves or is this truly, right, is this truly a reversal back to the lows? A little bit dramatic. Again, it's just one thing I'd like to share with a lot of you guys who unfortunately the only exposure you have to trading is social media, okay? Not every trade needs to go to the moon and not every stock needs to go to zero, right? There's just plenty of trades. They're just trades, right? That's all they are. So it wasn't the top, you can't call it for the top and you can't call this for the bottom until things really play out for several, several weeks, trade everything as a trade. So going into this week, the question was, well, what's going to happen next, right? You have five trade days of selling, two and a half percent decline last week on the Nasdaq 100, really not a lot of earth shattering moves considering the massive, massive move we put in on the Qs and the SPY and we talked about the SPY hitting the 200-day moving average and the question was, what was going to happen next? And that's the whole point. We keep on reiterating the point on every single nightly update. You don't have to guess what happens next, right? That's the whole point of all these random little lines that are not so random, right? They're giving you clues of what's going to happen next and we knew how important this whole level was. So this morning we saw a pretty aggressive gap down on all the indexes as you can imagine, majority of our charts. Again, so look, big gap down today as you can imagine, all of our short setups, or at least the majority of our short setups are making their moves, literally their average two-range moves pre-market. Now we have to find our job is to kind of find the value for the rest of the day. And that's exactly what we tried to do. We'll get to the individual pivots in a second. But the point is, again, what happens next? Now that we saw a 600-point decline on the Dow today, pretty much everything 2% plus declines on all the major benchmarks. The question is, what happens next? And here's kind of where we need to just really look with our eyes. And today was an important day when they did try to rally the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq got stuffed right on the 20-day supply, which is very, very important because later in the day, it took out this double bottom here at roughly 315. And this is now the first close below this 315 level. And again, as we talk about all the time, if you believe in the theory, and this is the whole point of the PS60 theory, if you believe in the theory that stocks trade from supply to supply and demand to demand, well, here follow along, right? Here's demand, then here's demand, then here's demand, then here's demand. Then obviously, the next logical area would be this 310, 311 area. And if you take a step back and really look at what's going on here, this is all in the midst of this magnificent, magnificent rally that started when we reclaimed the 50-day moving average in the first week of July. So again, for the winds to change, to really go into sell bias mode, we would have to close below the 50-day moving average. And we're still 14 points above that. So for the time being, again, we're not trying to guess where the market is going to be two days from now. We're not trying to even figure out where the market's going to be by tomorrow. What we're trying to do is take the research that we have today, right? Like right now, I've went through a lot of charts, and I see a lot of channels to the downside. And the only thing we're trying to do is take our research, what we find tonight, and seeing if they can confirm. And if that correlates with the queues giving back this bottom channel here, then we all, at least we know that this 310, 311 will be the next area of measure potential. If the queues gap down and start reclaiming back to 315 level, then we're going to know it's actually a very, very bullish thing. And this is, again, kind of the big macro picture that this was just an orderly back test into rising support, which would be fine as well. But the most important part is, again, guys, and I keep on reiterating over and over and over again, because eventually it goes into your subconscious. Stop with the opinions, OK? Nobody cares. Nobody cares. Nobody cares what I say. Nobody cares what you say. It's all about what the stocks say. It's all about what the price action says off these key levels. And if these key levels start to fall, well, then the next price action will put a next level to the upside. And the most important part is, always understand the biggest picture, the bigger picture. Always understand stocks don't go straight up in a trend. Stocks don't go straight down in a trend. Just for example, here, we had a seven month decline. Seven month really aggressive monthly decline on the NASDAQ 100. And just because this was a macro, macro trend to the downside, look how many days we had back to the upside. So this is kind of the reverse. Here's your macro big picture idea. And now we're just getting a few days, three or four. Actually, five days now of back testing in a perfect world. And this is kind of, in my opinion, what I think both sides would like to happen for tomorrow. The fact that we close below the bottom of the range here, this whole purple line here, and we do have measure potential, the 310, 311 on the Q's, from the bull side. If you're a bull, you would like to see a gap down. You would like to see a gap down and test this 310, 311 area, trap shorts on that bottom range, and start rallying red to green. On the bear case, you actually want to see a gap up. And the reason why you want to see a gap up is you want to see novice bulls start buying stocks pre-market, start buying stocks into supply pre-market. Keep this in mind. Again, we just broke this little channel here. And the optimum thing with what happened is if these traders get trapped on a gap up, on a gap and run gap up, and they start going red on the day, then yeah, then you could create a very, very premium high probability. Because if we do confirm the bottom channel, then we will go to 310, 311. So that's kind of the case from both players. Obviously, it's very, very tough to turn around and go, well, I really, really like the market because, again, you have to give a reason why. You can't just turn around and say, well, the market sold out five days in a row from the highs. It's a reason to buy. No, it's a reason to buy, but it's a reason to buy at random prices. You have to really turn around and look at levels and see why they are signaling a very, very great area. Now, again, if you want to get long off this 310, 311 area, I get it. If you want to get long tomorrow, if we gap down and we reclaim the 315 level, I get it. But don't just turn around and say, well, I think the market's a buy because, right? There has to be a technical reason involved. If not, you are guessing. You're gambling. You know, you're putting, you know, you're taking a quarter, right? You're taking whatever dime, flipping it up in the air, landing heads, lands and tails, and hopefully you are correct. So make sure, again, no matter what decision you make, right, based on your trading history, your trading experience, your account size, whatever type of trader you are, at least have a technical reason behind the reason you want to buy something, your kind of reason why you want to sell something. If your sentence, right, if your statement starts, I think, right, thinking is not good, right? It's all about data. It's all about data confirmation. And the most important part is waiting for these things to kind of confirm your thesis. So kind of, again, that's it. That's kind of what you want to see tomorrow. Bears, you want to see a gap of go green to red. Bulls, you want to see that flush out, right? That flush out, throw the baby out with the bathwater, trap shorts, 310, 311, then go right to green. That ideally would put in a very, very bullish scenario. But again, we don't know what's going to happen. All we can do is prepare on both sides of the market and making sure we are looking for the market on the reality, OK? Not the reality we want, right, but the reality that we have. After the close, you got Pan W in the internet security space, came out some pretty good earnings, announced a 3 for 1 split. On the other side, you have Zoom, right? I use Zoom. A lot of you guys use Zoom. You know, and not good, right? Not good. The whole stay at home play that the stocks that really, really benefited from all of the pandemic, right? They're not growth stories anymore, right? They were just basically necessities at that time. I personally love Zoom. I think it's a really good product, very easily used, and just affordable, right? I think it's affordable for small businesses, individuals, whatever the case may be. But again, the market has spoken. And if you look at the daily chart, it's taken down this whole big channel here at 96, which we'll get to that in a second. And now you have room all the way down to 79 in the next couple of weeks, if they don't buy the dip, right? That's the most important part. We don't know, OK? We don't know what's going to happen there. So that's it, right? That is it. So let's talk about today, right? Let's talk about today, like I said before. Again, we had a lot of pretty much what we were looking for on the video, where preparation for Monday was reversal. Can you do a back test? We talked about this. Again, here's the email, or at least the portion of the email that goes out every single day here. Here is the levels of interest on the cues and the spies. And they all gap below those levels. Here is the initial what we wanted to, right? 77. You can see these prices are way below, way above, excuse me, where these stocks opened up. So my whole point was, well, let's see what happens. Let's see what ranges we can find. Again, we're not looking for the closing price to be right in the direction. We're just looking to win our interval. So Tesla, again, not a big move. 66 held twice pre-market. That's also the 20-day support, if it builds below, can see 8.50. Didn't do that, right? There was a buyer there sitting there in the low 8.60. He's got down to the 8.60 level, turned into kind of a cup of coffee trade, nothing big there. I'm still watching it. Again, they do split in a couple of days. Guys, just understand one thing about the valuation, whether the stock is at 288, which is going to be post-split, or whether it's now at 870, the valuation for the company is the same. Institutional money flow is not going to come in there because the stock is cheaper. It's a retail mentality. It means absolutely nothing. Institutional money flow is still going to go into Tesla, whether the stock was 1200, 400, 200, 500, because it's still a massive growth story. It's still a cold stock, and it has ridiculous amounts of liquidity. So liquidity is not going to change, right? Maybe the average true range is going to change a little bit, but keep this in mind, Tesla, even at 288, 290, is still a $300 stock. It'll still have massive average true range. So if you're buying on the wives' tale of, well, you have to buy the stock ahead of the split, man, just take a look at a lot of these stocks. I'm not going to go into it, but take a look at a lot of these stocks did prior thinking where you got to get along into the split. You'll kind of see what I'm talking about. Again, Tesla's Tesla, nothing's going to change. The dynamics of the company is not going to change. The bull case, the bear case, whatever the case may be, it's not going to change. It's all about the ranges of the stock. So if you are making your decision based on what you think you heard on the internet, just be conscious of the fact. It's going to trade based on sentiment, not of an event of a split that's not going to change the valuation to begin with. The video, again, reports later in this week. They guided lower a couple of weeks ago, as of last week. 173 held three times of bills below, that can flush, should get down to the 169s. The video got hit, and the video got hit, and you could see where it closed. And again, this is kind of where you're looking. If you know how important the 50-day moving average is, if you've been watching this video, then you kind of know how important tomorrow's session is, right? So it took down to 73 and traded right to the 50-day moving average. This 50-day moving average gets confirmed tomorrow, right? Pretty aggressive put by and came in ahead of the earnings. But again, we don't know how it's going to act. Meta 164, 80, 165, that's the bottom of the range. If it builds below, can flush more. Here is Meta, right? Here's Meta. It took down that 65 area, traded all the way down to 62. Again, still has more room down if the market continues. Coin held 70 twice. Actually, coin held 70 now three times. Never broke that 70. IMBT's the little stock I like. KOS, another stock. This thing got absolutely hammered. Congratulations to all you guys who took ZM, 96 macro support if it builds below, can flush. Stock is trading 89s right now after the close. D-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d. Let's see, let's see, let's see, let's see, let's see. This is going to be the big one right here. This was definitely my trade of the day. Still holding a runner here. This 233 got downgraded to a sell if it builds below, can flush. They gapped it down right to that 231, 232 level on rising support. Once it lost, its opening range low has went down all the way down to that 224 level. If this thing continues to grind, starts losing that 224, I still think we see 221, 222. If this thing continues to go, if the market continues to go lower, it's a really beautiful move on Netflix. Nice move on meta. ENVX never got to the 2180, 22 level. And I believe that is it. So that's it, that's it here. So again, guys, we're not trying to recreate the wheel every single day. We're just taking, we are taking all the data on the nightly research and now applying it towards the morning window. And again, just kind of a little bit of a piece of advice. If you're an active trader, again, this has nothing to do with investing or being a longer-term trader. If you're an active trader, your sweet spots are between 9.30 and about one o'clock. That is your window for aggression because people are chasing, people are emotional, people all over the place. By the time that and channels are expanding. Once one o'clock hits from one o'clock to like 3.30, it's a dead zone. It's a complete dead zone. You'll notice stocks are going to trade in very, very tight channels, okay? This is where you turn your account. This is where you turn around and go, I can't believe I gave back my whole day. If you think about it, if you ever made said that statement, right? I just gave back my whole day. It's probably not in the morning. It's probably in the afternoon. So just kind of one piece of advice. Try it, if you're an active trader, try to get done 90, 95% of everything you do in that morning window, okay? Because whatever you like, whatever you like in the afternoon, you're going to love in the morning. It's going to be exactly the same setup. The only difference is you're not going to be fighting for 30, 40, 50 cents. You're going to be looking for a measured potential three, four, $5 a share. If you stop trading in the afternoon, okay, especially as you're trying to grow an account, you'll be shocked what your bottom line looks like year in, year out. The value is always in the morning and contraction always happens in the afternoon. Guys, have a great night everybody. God bless and I will see you on the field tomorrow. Take care.