 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Happy election day everybody and with the being election day now on the calendar It means we're getting to the part of NFL season where you finally know I think which teams are good in the NFL Which teams may not be as good and it does kind of get you excited You know, okay I'm looking forward to betting on T-max or betting against Team Y for reason XYZ and Fortunately for me the team I want to bet on is Baltimore and they're on a buy this week But I think we're getting a firmer grasp of which teams are good. We can hopefully parlay that into some bets week number 10 I do think there are a couple of spots we can look at for this week where my numbers are showing value We're gonna break down the initial read of my numbers of week 10 Let you know what bets I'm laying down right now, which once I am not betting despite showing value Hopefully getting set to win some money once again in week number 10 also recapping what went down last week This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Here to give you our first look at NFL week number 10 Let you know what I am seeing on the board over at Fandall Sportsbook and how to digest that Based on what my numbers are saying Based on my own personal models like I said, we'll also go through what went down last week here on the show But a full jam packed week once again here on covering the spread of college football coming up tomorrow with a doctor I'd fang we've got Ryan Williams back with us on Thursday JJ Zacharyson Friday talk about some NFL player props So a jam packed week here, but also I do want to give a sneak preview that We got other good stuff coming up on future Tuesdays here on covering the spread We're probably gonna get Ed on Tuesdays a couple times talk some World Cup because that's not too far down the line We're gonna Tom Becky I want to talk some NBA at some time So these Tuesdays it's a it's just a first look for today for this week at the NFL But we're gonna have some more stuff here down the line as well to get you set for other sports going on during the fall It's not just football season, but we're talking about all that stuff down the line as well So make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and while you're there If you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well also up on the fan dual YouTube page If you want to watch a video version instead now is the perfect time to download Fandall America's number one sports book because right now new customers getting no sweat first bet up to $1,000 that's free bets back if your first bet doesn't win trap features like seeing game parlays Play your way and bet on more than just the final score wager on everything from touchdowns to total yards to catches All on an app that's safe secure and super easy to use a Sunday for your no sweat first bet make every moment more this season with Fandall official sportsbook partner of the NFL Must be 21 plus and president select states first online real money wager only refund issued is non Withstrawable free bets that expired 14 days restrictions apply so you terms that sportsbook dot fandall dot com gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler or was a fandall dot com slash rg in arizona 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 In kineticate 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in indiana 109 with it in wyomingen cancels 1 805 224 700 or in cancels ks gambling health dot com In Louisiana 1 8 7 7 7 7 0 stop in new york 1 8 7 7 8 open wire text open y or in tennessee call the red line at 1 800 uh 8 8 9 9 7 8 9 Let's take a look here at the spreads and uh money lines where my numbers are showing value here 4 week number 10 and we'll start things off on Kind of a bummer note at least for me and that is by betting against justin fields, which i don't want to do I think justin fields is super fun I i've had a lot of fun watching the past couple of weeks, but My traditional model which of course if you're a new listener is a blend of a prior with 2022 data That traditional model says the lions should be favored in this game But the three point underdogs on the road with the money line at plus 128 at fan dual sports book And I will take the money line here at plus 128 the lions passing offense Was still decently efficient last week without tg hawkinson and they didn't have josh reynolds in that game He could be back here still no dj chart because I think he saw as One or two more weeks left on ir before he can come back, but could get josh reynolds back that would help things at least a bit chicago's defense Not very good. We didn't really see that a lot against the the patriots. We did see that in uh the the dolphin's game for sure and The offense for chicago has been a lot better and that does matter But I think this game could just feature a lot of points And I think detroit is equally capable of putting up those points on their side of the ball The implied win odds here for detroit are 44 percent. I've got them favored again in my traditional model So I will take the money line here plus 128 and go with the lions I did check back in my my model to see how often it's recommended the lions here because I didn't think it had been very often But it is this is actually the third time in nine games. They played it said there's been Value in the money line one of those games was last week and they beat the packer straight up So I probably should have listened then I will listen now and take them. I respect what justin fields has done I do think it's been fun to watch him I think the offense is definitely evolving and that's intriguing for sure But still do you think we might have a bit of an overreaction here in making them three point favorites at home Looking at the 2022 only model that one is a little bit less bullish on detroit It has this game. Uh, Chicago favorite favor by point six nine points. So point six nine points Effectively a toss up money line plus 128. So either way the traditional model or the 2022 only model which is a different blend of stats, uh, but It has no prior in there as well I do think there's enough in there for me to go with the lions at plus 128 The second one will be a spread. I think you could go money line here if you wanted though Uh, that's on the chargers plus seven against the 49ers My traditional model, uh, has a four point game favoring the 49ers here by taking the points I get a push on seven. I get a win on six and get a win on three So getting some key numbers in my favor by taking the points here which is a while ago that way Versus taking the money line this model does include a downward adjustment for no mike williams I'm assuming no keen and allen as well. So I'm marking him out And also has an upward bump for the 49ers with christian mccaffrey being there Even when I make those adjustments and I assume that the chargers are without their top two pass catchers I still can't get to seven and remember this is the model that told me to bet the falcons last week didn't That didn't win obviously, uh, but I felt good about that bet got closing line value on that bet I thought had a chance to win that bet of drake london hadn't fumbled on the goal line So this model said to bet against them this past week and now likes them I think again maybe an overreaction to what we've seen here of late, uh from the chargers So I will take the chargers plus seven. That's minus one ten over at vandals sports book And I do feel pretty good about that one too The 2022 only model has this one a bit closer. It has a 5.2 four points in favor of san francisco so Directionally both pointing towards the chargers the 2022 only one a bit less bullish on them and as as discussed last week I built that model specifically to be lower on the chargers. So Even that one saying to bet the chargers here if that one's saying it along with my the the model I trust more I'm okay taking the chargers plus seven and riding with that one here One bet that my 2022 only model likes a lot a lot is the broncos Their money line is plus 124 against titans spread is plus three for that game The 2022 only model says that the broncos should be favored here It ranks our defense as among the best in the league and obviously bradley chubb being removed does change that but Still an impressive defense regardless Even though that model is not as high on their offense It is higher on the broncos offense than the titans My traditional model which includes a prior thinks the spread should be tighter But it doesn't show a ton of value here So the one I trust more says i'm not as into the broncos But I actually do think there is value in the money line the broncos here at plus 124 I like the inputs of the 2022 only model I know that it's not being swayed by That prior I had in for the broncos being a bit too high on them You know didn't bet them week one actually saw value in the the seahawks there, but did bet them weeks three four and five so This one has uh, this one doesn't have that prior in there I know it's not kind of tainted by what the preseason thoughts were and it still says that the broncos are awesome Based largely on their defense again. No bradley chubb does impact that but I don't think it impacts it enough where I can Overrule a game where it says the broncos should be decently heavy favorites I'm not sure they should be decently heavy favorite, but I get them Showing value in the money line here. So I will take the money line on the broncos as well plus 124 if annual sports book I think that is a favorable enough number saw some, you know, late in that london game Russell Wilson started chucking it deep I thought that was pretty encouraging. Nathaniel hack it wants to run a bit more. So Maybe the offense gets a bit better. I'm not banking on that But also again my my models assuming they don't get any better. They stay baseline So I think that I will take the broncos here plus 124 those ones. I'm taking right now There are two spots where my numbers are showing value that I'm not taking and Probably will not take like we talked about bangles last week because like, okay, I'll take this once it gets to x and it got there I don't think I'll be on these two. That's the Packers plus five against the Cowboys and the Steelers plus two and a half against the Saints the Packers one Anecdotally, I agree with I think anecdotally I should I should want to back the Packers plus five because they've got the stink on them and stuff like that I agree with the logic But I don't know who will be available for them Like if we roll out Romeo rule out Romeo Dobbs rule out Christian Watson and it's like Sammy Watkins Um, you know and Lazard and stuff like that Once I rule those guys out It's it's very possible the Packers will no longer be a value In this model So I'm going to hold off there If we were to get good injury news, maybe I would bite and it keeps on moving. Maybe I'd bite then but My model the 2022 one loves the Cowboys like it has them Think top five in the power rankings right now. So he loves the Cowboys. I don't really want to bet against them So probably not going to fire there as for the Steelers my 2022 only model doesn't agree with this one I think New Orleans should be favored by 2.84 points. So model this agreement I don't really want to bet a Steelers versus Saints game anyways So I'm going to take that as like an excuse to not bet it. So I'll stay out of that one as well So my current week seven week 10 card is the Chargers plus seven against the 49ers The Lions money line at plus 128 against the Bears and the Broncos money line at plus 124 gets Titans Natural add honestly I did get the the Vikings money line with the Josh Allen news yesterday I'm hoping that one winds up being a bad bet because I want to watch Josh Allen play but I think that that's uh, that's not I'm not seeing any value with the mark where the market is right now So I'll probably wind up standing pad on those three as far as the traditional markets go We might talk about more on Thursday But as of right now, I'm guessing that'll probably be where I wind up So Chargers plus seven Lions money line Broncos money line But we got four week 10 right now Before I close up for today, though, gotta look back at last week and recap What went down here on the show for the college football show We had Ben brown a pro football focus on to talk about that He is on twitter at pff underscore Ben brown Ben was On Notre Dame for their upset at Clemson. He had the spread at a plus three and a half They won that game outright in dominant fashion So kudos to Ben on that one in the miami fsv game Ben did have miami plus seven and a half that one didn't go as well But did get some closing line value here that one closed at six and a half So got across a key number closed six and a half point of movement for him Fsv torched him. So, you know didn't get the win But hey, you know clv got to make you feel at least a little bit better about that one there Ben also had maxion on wednesday night when we talked He wanted central michigan plus three and a half in the first half against northern illinois and They blanked him in the first half 21 nothing for cmu. They won that game 35 22 So good call by ben on that one two and one week overall helps Helps erase the stink of the miami one. So good week by ben and again check him out on twitter at pff underscore ben brown Ed's bet was on texas a&m and florida under 55 and a half He got two points of clv there closed at 53 and a half But a shootout in the first half 31 points in the first quarter It did slow down and finish at 65 but that was still over the total there So ed's had a weird year a lot of good movement a lot of good movement in this favor And I think that long term you're going to take movement every time. So long term I think the that ed's numbers are looking good. They're getting good clv not the results right now, but Um, he's in line at the market He's he's getting ahead of where the numbers are going I think that is a better long-term indicator success than what the results may say I had a profitable week finally it had been a while that was good felt good Uh, it wasn't the bets that I thought would do well that one which is kind of weird I felt really good about the falcons money line at plus 140. I got good clv there closed at plus 122 They had a drake london fumble in the red zone. They really killed them I was watching that game saw him catch it and then you could tell when khalil mac was behind him like, uh-oh This isn't gonna go well for me ripped it out of his hands And I was like hoping for a miracle got the austenekler fumble laid in that game Falcons pick it up. They fumbled right back and the the charge wound up winning so I don't know what like it's two teams that didn't want to win it kind of seemed like So i'm not sure if I should have won that game It would have had to push if I had taken plus three, but I did take the money line So that one lost it's whatever I got movement There and it just didn't uh, just didn't work out I got it to move against me for the jags and raiders which kind of surprised me honestly I took that at plus 106 and it lengthened over the weekend But the jags played really well. Uh, the raiders did not uh, the jags or the raiders are now blown three separate 17 point leads And I've had the money line on the opposing team twice one of the cardinals One with the jags. So Not sure if that means it's lucky that I've gotten those two bets, but it's still money in my pocket So I'll take it out of the way, uh, but the jags. I thought Trevor Lawrence played really well again. So Talked about some negative highlight buys with him. I think that played out well During the game sunday So felt good about the jags with the results and the process I had the colts plus five and a half. Whoops. Oh boy That got to four and a half went back to five with the jt news Then closed again at four and a half and we know how that one went San Elngar played brutal the offense bad So That was uh, that was bad. Uh got good movement, but did not uh, did not win that one I talked on tuesday about wanting to bet the Bengals. It was seven and a half when we spoke I said I would bet it's there if it stayed there, but I wanted to see if it would get to seven So I wanted to hold off it got to seven. I think at like noon on tuesday, so took that one there It did a couple hours later. Uh, but the half points didn't matter. I'm still okay with being strict, you know, you know Being price sensitive with that one. Um, didn't matter. They were up 35 nothing at half They won that game by 21 So that point didn't matter but felt good to read the market properly Get that extra half point and then get the win with the Bengals there The one thursday edition for me was the bucks money line at minus 146 that went down to minus 152 a close They had a rally, uh, but they did get there. Um, they did not make that easy They did not make it fun. Uh, but tom brady, you know, led them down that drive It felt pretty good. I like I didn't really feel that nervous about it Like I know they were down. No, they needed a touchdown, but I didn't feel that bad about it. So, uh, got the win there Overall week, not that bad. Uh, nice little bounce back here. It's been, uh, not the best year by any means So it was good to get that bounce back with those bets last week We had tom becky on friday to talk player props check out tom on twitter at dfs underscore tom Tom at both the yardage props he discussed those were on tom brady, uh over 272 and a half passing yards and curtis samuel at 49 and a half receiving yards Brady finished with 280. Thanks to that, uh, last drive there. So both tom and i benefited from that one Samuel had a 49 yard touchdown reception of aided by a referee jacking up a safety, but you know, it still counts Uh, samuel finished with 65 yards in the day So tom hit both of those touchdown bets for tom were on aromio dobs and robertunyan Their lone touchdown for the packers was to alan lasard. So those ones didn't hit but He had joe mixon He had a single touchdown at minus 125 and joe mixon went for five. So hopefully you listened to matt one Got the mixon at minus 125. Maybe you went to an alternate market. Not sure if andal offers a five plus touchdown but you know alternate market, but He did hit that one there The one that tom asked me about and i talked him out of which i shouldn't have was uh, tyreek hill even money for anytime touchdown I said no. So of course, he'll scored Um, so listen to tom on props touchdown props not me, but good week by tom there Overall check him out on twitter at tfs underscore tom ryan williams on twitter ryan alexander scored w check him out there really nice sunday for ryan once again Couple of spreads on underdogs who won the game out, right? Those were the seahawks plus two in the lions plus three and a half both those teams won Other one was the falcons plus three they pushed So he was smart to take the points. I did not so ryan got the push there Q o and one for him on spreads on sunday Last week or the the show for last night. We didn't get a whole lot right there. Um, anytime touchdowns discussed were tason hill plus 170 Alva camara minus 110 lamar jackson plus 145 or sheed jahid at 11 to one Kenyon drake juan johnson and isa likely had the lone touchdowns there ryan did though hit, uh, chris alavi Over 63 and a half receiving yards. He finished with 71. So Not the best monday for us, but still a solid week overall for ryan again check ryan out on twitter at ryan alexander underscore w I think that uh He's doing a really good job overall So feeling good about what ryan's done appreciate tom bed and ed for spreading their insights as well looking at my numbers You know not just the ones we discussed in the show I think last week was probably the best week as far as uh back testing on my numbers both with the Moneyline market and the spread market got some good movement got good results on those So I'm feeling optimistic heading to week 10 based on uh, what those numbers said it's been a weird year overall But I think based on the movement based on the results based on like all the bets together Not just the ones that I decided to take feeling pretty good. So we'll see We can spin it forward and have a good week 10 as well That is all that we have here for today But as mentioned we are back once again tomorrow with dr ed fang to break down week number 11 in college football We'll be talking about that breaking down the biggest games and where ed's numbers are seeing value That'll be up in the afternoon. We're gonna record uh the afternoon. So should be up by Probably 4 p.m. Eastern. So get that on the covering the spread podcast feed And it'll be up that night over on the fandal youtube page as well nf up preview with ryan coming up on thursday and player props to jj coming up on friday all right here in this exact same fee If you've got any questions for me. I am on twitter at gymsonus j i m s a n n e s you can also follow the fandal podcast network at fandal podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in and good luck to you with your nba college basketball Whatever it may be bets for tonight. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down some college football This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network