 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network The field is set the bracket is ready And we are here to get you all prepped to fill out your bracket and win your pools for the 2023 NCAA men's college basketball tournament. This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Number fire calm. My name is Jim saw this I am a senior writer and analyst for number fired calm joined here today by two Fantastic guests to help you fill out your brackets for this year's tournament joined here first by my typical co-host You're uncovering the spread a doctor Ed Fang you can find Ed's work over at the power ink comedy You can find Ed on Twitter as well at the power ink and the bracket is set. How are you doing today? I'm doing really well. I'm finding this to be a pretty fun year to break things down. I think It's a year where it's necessary to break things down more than normal I think there's a lot more parody going on in college basketball this year, although we have seen Alabama surge recently Yeah, it's just it's a fun time. I think it's even more fun You know if I get enough sleep to put in the work this week. Yeah, absolutely sleep is good Ed We'd recommend you do that so watch out for yourself as well because once we get to Thursday It is a jam-packed couple of weeks. We're also joined here by Bennett Corker We've had been it on the past couple of years for these NCAA tournament breakdowns Bennett now of shot quality Bennett previously here with us over at number fire now with shot quality But I needed the best minds in college basketball to break down this field So bring it Bennett back you can find Bennett on Twitter at 617 Bennett again find his work over at shot quality Bennett It is a pleasure to have you back on here for today a pleasure to talk to you once again on a more personal level So how you doing today? Doing great Jim. Great to be back. Thanks for thanks for having me. Obviously a really exciting time of year So I have to break everything down Absolutely, I'm excited to have you here excited at both you and Ed here and it is going to be a fantastic show Now if you have not listened to our NCAA tournament breakdown in past years, here's how it works We're gonna go from top down Because if you listen to Ed listen to Bennett, you will hear them say the national champion is what matters most That's where the points are I'm winning your pool So we're gonna focus there first and then work backwards talk one national champions talk final four contenders talk overall strategy for your pools Because that matters a lot as well because we want to set you up best to win your pool So we're gonna work from the top down and go that way We'll go region by region to break down more granular stuff We're gonna start with the national championship discussion and strategy to get you all involved there from the jump We'll dive on it all that in just one second First a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast because we have more NCAA tournament shows coming up later on this week breaking down at the Wednesday or the Thursday and the Friday games Both those shows will be up on Wednesday on the covering the spread podcast unit And of course as always on the fan dual YouTube page So go subscribe to the fan to a YouTube page hit the like button if you're watching us live there right now And also make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread to get these podcasts as they go live each and every weekday Also talking NFL free agency takeaways tomorrow on the show as well This March take your first shot at college hoops with fan dual sports But can get ten times your first bet amount in bonus bets up to two hundred dollars That's right Just bet twenty bucks in the bracket and you'll land two hundred in bonus bets win or lose That's two hundred dollars You can spend betting everything from the money line to point spreads that five V 12 seed matchup You've been eyeing on an app that is safe secure and super easy to use There is no better place to bet on the tournament than fan dual Saturday make every moment more a fan dual all tournament long must be 21 plus and president select states first online A real money wager only ten dollar deposit required Refund issued is not withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 14 days Restrictions apply see full terms at fan dual comm slash sports book Fandals offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with the Kansas Star casino LLC gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or was a fandal dot com slash RG in Arizona 1-800 next step or text next step to five three three four two in Connecticut one eight eight eight seven eight nine Seven seven seven seven or visit ccp g dollar access chat in Indiana 1-800 nine with it in Kansas NY oming 1-800 five two two 4700 or in Kansas KS gambling help calm Louisiana one eight seven seven seven zero stop in a Maryland MD gambling help or In New York one eight seven seven eight open wire text open wide in West Virginia go to 1-800 gambler dot net Now as mentioned before we talk individual teams It's forward to start things off from a strategy perspective and let you know things You've got to know about your brackets before you fill things out So I'm gonna start things off with you here at because you wrote a book on winning your NCAA tournament pool and that is an evergreen book it is Ideas processes you can apply to any year So and if you're giving advice to people who have not thought about it from a game theory perspective before What advice are you giving people before they dig into this individual bracket? For sure. I first just let me mention you can get the entire book for free for signing up for my email list so just check that out at thepowerank.com and I think you just need to start at the beginning and Just I mean if you want to win and you don't want to wait 30 years on average to win you should get in the small pool. It's much easier to win it's much easier to beat like 10 people who know know think about college basketball and Then it is to win, you know 100 person pool with a bunch of pro College basketball betters, right? So I highly recommend Getting in a small pool essentially I talk in the book about how your probability when a pool Decreases exponentially with the number of people in it. So it's good to be in a small one. I think this year is probably even a better year to be in a small pool and Yeah, so make sure you get that done now right before you even start picking any games and if you are Trying to I you know think about it from a pool perspective you can enter multiple pools So if you're going into smaller pools, just add more of them You know if you want to play it that way you can still Shoot for bigger prizes overall by doing that and kind of adding up the number of pools You're in to if you you know want a gun for the big prizes Do it via that versus going into a massive massive pool. What about for you Bennett from an overall strategy perspective? What are keys for you when it comes to filling out a bracket? Um, yeah, so for me, I think one of the most important things is just kind of like leveraging any available information So we talk a lot about the like espn public pick percentages And that's like kind of a great baseline Especially if your pool is like a little bit more casual to like identify what your opponents might be doing And it kind of gives you a leg up in terms of like a game theory standpoint um the other Thing that you know, most people probably aren't as dialed into is injuries So that's kind of another source of information where You know, if you're a little bit more in tune with what's going on Then you'll have like a considerable advantage And that is an important thing to consider as we talk about national champions, which we'll do here And just a bit but first Bennett you mentioned But like a casual pool How much are you weighing? The people you're competing against, you know, you got to know your competition. So Bennett How much thought process are you putting into like the the people competing against whether it be? Regionality, you know, if there are teams or fans of a certain team in your pool Whether it be how sharp they may be versus casual. How are you weighing in your competitors when filling out your bracket? Yeah, it's a great question. I think in a larger pool. I'm probably less Willing to kind of like consider just because there's so many more people But like in a smaller pool like what ed was referring to If there's only like 10 people and say it's a bunch of your buddies and you know You know that a lot of them are you know fans of a given team or something like that, you know, it's it's definitely advantageous to probably You know go against them Given that they might you know be a popular selection. So Yeah, it's important to consider how things may change because you talked about the the public numbers at ESPN We'll talk about those in a second go to ESPN and find the who picked who tab That'll tell you what the public overall is picking. But if you're in Houston, it's probably going to skew more towards Houston than it would if you are in Tuscaloosa Hypothetically, so it's important to weigh that for sure as well And I want to go back to you here because you mentioned pool size and how much that matters Let's say someone out there listening They're entering into a work pool and it's a free one. So, you know, they're trying to win that free pool They're entering in regardless, but there are a lot of people in it So they're entering in a free pool no ability to like choose elsewhere How does that impact your selection knowing that you are in a big pool versus what you're doing in like a 10 person pool with your family whatever For sure I mean you need to take more risks if you're going to win like a 500 person free pool at the office, right? so you want to pick a champ that You know, not a lot of other people are picking and you know, it obviously depends on the size of the pool whether You know, you need to go all the way to Texas A&M Corpus Christi to win at all You know to win the espn pool out of Out of uh, I don't know what 10 million. I don't even know how many millions of people submit their brackets there But yeah, and it's different, you know, if you're trying to win a pool that's 10 people You can go with a lot of favorites and go with a lot of chalk Uh, which analytics will will help you out with there. So, um, yeah, you just need to more take You need to take more risks if there's more people in your pool um, and you can you know, there's a lot of Uh different ways that you can do that. You know in my research. I found Kind of overwhelmingly like your choice of champion really affects your odds more than anything else I mean, you know, like I've messed around with final four choices and and found that it didn't really mess with your win probability too much So it's really that choice of champions. So so spend some time digging into that And uh, you know, that's where you find an edge and that's we're going to start things off here in just one second But first I did want to ask you one more question ed if you get your wish and you're in a 10 person pool Smaller pool. Are you playing things straight or are you still considering public pick percentages there? Or do you just pick who you think will win each game? Well, I mean playing things straight. I think you mean like playing Kind of the favorites and chalk. Uh, I'm not exactly sure what exactly that means this year when you're talking about champion Um, I I thought it was very obviously going to be hueson As we've discussed on the show before and they were just going to be the chalk favorite But alabama has been really impressive through one of the best conferences in the nation recently Obviously had a great showing in the scc tournament And some sets of my numbers they are on top now. So you can actually argue that chalk is picking alabama as your champion I think if we get to a championship game with hueson and alabama and both sides Have full health meaning market sasser is going to come back from injury I mean no one decides to prosecute brandon miller of alabama before that game I actually think hueson is going to be a slight favorite. Yeah, okay. So let's talk about that national champion Yeah, let's talk about it because right now hueson is a favorite uh over at fandall sports book hueson Five to one to win it all over at fandall sports book Ben I want to start things off for you because it sounds like ed is leaning towards alabama and hueson is being the top two teams Not really sure which one should be top between those two. So ben what about for you? When you look at the top of the pool this year, who do you think when you're picking things more straight up? Is the national champion in 2023 Yeah, so I agree and I kind of think hueson has the the best overall chance Um, despite the fact that alabama has been playing, you know considerably better down the stretch here Um, we ed touched on the market sasser injury stuff And I'm sure we'll get into that as well. But that's obviously something that you definitely have to consider If you're not aware marcus sassers hueson's point guard and he missed the conference championship game on sunday um Seems like based on just like interviews and things like that seems like it was kind of like an abundance of caution and expected to play throughout the tournament, but Obviously if we get, you know any sort of news on that front Um for the worst then that's something you should certainly, you know take into account Um but yeah, I would say for Um for where I'm thinking, I mean, I do think hueson is kind of the Um, you know the top choice in my mind, especially when you consider that most people are picking bamma Um, but I do think bamma is you know, probably the second most likely team and then you kind of see there's a bit of a tear drop And you know some of these other teams at Kansas for example So I I'm in pretty in line with what we're looking at right here with the sports with us Now Bennett used the word tear add. Do you agree that it's it's hueson, alabama And then everyone else in terms of if you're tearing things out for the national champion Yeah, probably probably. I mean, there's some there's some teams that I might put in that same tier and we can talk about them a little bit later um, but uh Yeah, I don't know. I mean I mean, I think what's funny is, you know, when I look at kansas and perdua and So I kind of agree where hueson and alabama are at I think that tells you all you need to know about what the markets think about where the market sass is coming back Right, and it should also be noted that he missed the end of last season He missed uh kind of midway through the season through the end of last season. They were still incredible. It took an abysmal one for 20 Shooting performance from three to not make the final four last year. Uh, that was against villanova and the elite eight So they they do have a track record. I mean when you look at objectively, yeah I mean market sasser clearly matters. He's he's probably the best player um Yeah, so when I look at this, you know, we'll we'll get to perdu later that that that that's kind of funny to me that they're they're that high Uh, I don't really love ucl either um, so I I think it's wide open and and I think the analysis will kind of reflect that. Um, I I think it's kind of wide open and and there's a lot of teams that can uh Can make some noise in the sermon now ben at the one bummer here is that this isn't dfs. There's no light swap So When we submit our pools and that first game tips off on thursday We're locked in and we can't change things based on the availability of marcus sasser So you look at their first weekend northern kentucky first and then iowa or alburn in the second round Iowa could put up a lot of points. Uh, but not the best year for the big 10 Uh, alburn is there as well and I think that that that uh, at least number fires metrics have that game being decently close How confident are you in sassar's health? Does the concern around that? Make you lean away from houston or what's your read on that as of now again? We'll get more info hopefully before thursday, but as of right now How much do you weigh the sasser injury when deciding what to do for the national champion? Yeah, no, I mean it's a great question. So I think for You know thinking about the first, you know game or two Um, I think even if he was You know against the 16 seed, you know respectfully, but even if he was a little eliminated didn't play at all I think they would you know still take care of business. Um, you know, iowa and alburn, um I I still kind of think you know houston would be you know favored without him although I will say I believe that game would be in tuscalusa. So if it's alburn Kind of a raw draw, but I do think like yeah when it gets it's really gonna be more about you know Kind of that second weekend in terms of like You know, how much you know, how kind of you know comfortable is he gonna be out there? um I do think like Yeah, the it seems like to me that you know, some of this Uncertainty with regards to his injury status has like baked into the line a little bit. Yeah, um, and I think You know, I still I still feel pretty good about Him ultimately playing but it's it's really about like effectiveness And I think that's kind of why you have to downgrade a little bit because you know Like it's he's obviously gonna try to give it a go. It's an nc double a tournament. Um, but you know, it's just how effective He's gonna be basically Yeah, houston was five to one shortened to plus four seventy briefly But then he can lengthen back out to five to one a fangirl of sportsbook So mixed signals there, but it does seem like he should play But like he said the question more so about effectiveness I talked a couple of times about the public pick percentages So let's shift over and talk about those right now as of right now over at espn 21.9 percent of all brackets have alabama winning houston is at 12.6 percent and It sounds like based on what you've said so far houston may be undervalued by the public But what's your overall read on what your numbers say at the power rank? What's your feel is relative to what the public has specifically here for the national championship game? Right I mean that houston percentage keeps ticking up which keeps meaning there's there's less value and Less contrarian value and kind of picking them as your champion What numbers are you know actually down on them a little bit, you know, they'll put it closer to 11 percent I think that's on the low side I think it's closer to I think it's closer to 15 percent there, but yeah, I mean it does make it tough Right. I mean I always stare at this every year and like Hope that it goes In a way that allows for some good contrarian choices and it never does It never has over any of the last couple years No, no, no the the year virginia one They were pretty low because people were down on them after the first round exit and that they actually I believe I believe your numbers had them higher than the public did. I believe that was the case Well, my numbers had them significantly higher than the public But that was the once in a lifetime where a team walked through a 16 seed the year before So that's probably never going to happen again And that year was even a horror show because Duke started in the 40s in terms of public pay percentage and then Gently slid into One third which is exactly what I had and I was like, ah Yeah, that's not writing books about this stuff Now what about for you, Ben and we look at these numbers here based on the current public pay percentages Which teams do you think are undervalued to win it all for this year? Um, yeah, so I mean we talked about Houston a little bit I think my numbers are a bit higher on Houston than than what it has But I honestly think with a healthy sassar like I would put them, you know Closer what we're seeing with the ammo here at like the 20-ish percent range And I've kind of discounted them a little bit given the uncertainty Um, to where I still have it higher than what we're seeing here, but it's more like 17 or 18 percent Um, and then I don't really see any value on Bama or Kansas Um, I mean you might get some small value in some of these longer shots that are like, you know Somewhere between like the, you know, four to eight percent chance Um, kind of like what Ed was saying earlier in terms of parody I do think that kind of tier is larger than we see in most years Where like usually there's like a couple, you know More like favorites that people kind of gravitate towards you and then there's like, you know, maybe, you know A few other teams that have, you know, five plus percent chance Um, but I feel like that tier this year is is substantial So if Houston does kind of continue to tick up and you're in a larger pool Um, you know, you might want to consider pivoting some of these other teams further down the list here Do you have a favorite among those other teams? Like let's say again, you're in a huge pool. You have no choice Uh, aka me. Um, I'm asking for myself here. I'm in a huge pool about it. Um, and I'm trying to decide Do I go with that or do I take into account the fact that there's a lot of parody this year? There could be a bit more wide open than usual. It's harder to swallow chalk On alabama houston when there are a lot of teams that could realistically content So it sounds like based on your numbers houston is undervalued and that matters even in a large pool But if you're looking for a pivot, is there one that stands out to you right now? Yeah, it's tricky. So we'll get into the kind of region by region breakdown in a bit But a couple of the teams that I had kind of circled as Um, you know, potentially, you know longer shots that would be undervalued Ended up in the same region. So it's Basically, uh, you know, I was I was keeping my eye on like a Yukon or like a Gonzaga or But yeah, no, I mean, I think the path is like fairly difficult to where I mean, I like it's going to be hard just to like, you know Be able to kind of progress, you know through that kind of gauntlet, but Still kind of keeping my eye on it if you're in, you know Some of these polls that we're talking about where it's, you know, much larger as opposed to You know, if you're if you're in a pool of 10 people, I wouldn't take a national champion pick that has like a 4% drop But if you're Going up to against a few hundred people, you know, why not take a stab at, you know It's one of these kind of dark horses, I guess Ed, what about for you any favorites among the contrarian options if you're in a larger pool to win the national championship? I mean, I still think hueson is kind of your best bet simply because they're gonna have the largest probability They're they're gonna have the largest chance of winning There is still some contrarian value there. So I'm gonna stick with that Okay, so focusing primarily on hueson as far as the national championship, especially if we get good news Marcus Sasser before Things tip off on thursday. Let's now go region by region and break down how things broke down there We'll start things off in the south where alabama is the one seed and Obviously we talked about how alabama might be overvalued to win the whole thing But then it when you look at the south region specifically Are you deviating there or is alabama still the pick for you at least to make it in the final four from this region? Yeah, so i'm actually deviating here. So I think um, you know, we talked about skewing hueson to um, you know, ultimately win the whole thing Um, and if a lot of people are going to take bamma you can kind of pick up some additional leverage by You know sending them home early. So Taking a look at this. I mean I know we were talking about the public pure synergies earlier. I think they're about 50 or so give or take to get to the final four My number is have that You know a decent bit lower So I think this is a great chance to You know pick somebody kind of from the the bottom half of the region Um to kind of make a run here and get to the final four And when you look at the bottom half Bennett Is there one team that you like most if you're trying to to fade alabama? Are you looking at in arizona a baler? Maybe a cretin if you're gonna get weird What stands out to you when you are trying to dump alabama out of there before the final four? Yeah, no, so I um, I think honestly the three teams that you just listed I think their their probability of advancing the final four is all like fairly similar between Arizona baler and cretin um cretin is probably the Going to be the least likely picks of that group. I would say um, so I probably would skew that way. Um I mean baler is very talented as well. Like, you know, particularly their guard play Um, although their defense is just not, you know, quite what we saw two years ago when they won the national championship Um, but yeah, I I think cretin's kind of an interesting pick to be honest Okay, ed. What about for you? Again, as Bennett mentioned the final four odds in the again the public pay percentages alabama 54.6 percent that's really high But you also said that you've got alabama, you know in some of your numbers higher than houston So do you deviate from alabama in this region or do you do so later on the bracket? No, I like alabama to make the final four I mean the only thing that worries me a little bit is that you know They they're on such a good streak in the sec tournament. Maybe they hit a little bit of a bad bump They have allowed a very minuscule 3.4 goal percentage allowed. So you expect some regression there So certainly some worries that they might not make it through but you know This region is like kind of well seated in some sense, right? You got a two in arizona That's also kind of a top 10 team a good team, but a team that is not as good on defense as they were last year when they were when they were better Um, you have a three and baler that you know, it's kind of like right around the top 10 Uh, yeah, it's kind of a well-seated kind of region where some of the others aren't and uh, yeah, I'll take alabama come out of here Okay, so you got alabama emerging at are there any higher seated teams? You know that you're wary of any higher seated teams So you think maybe we're a bit over seated sounds like you are on board with this this region being seated pretty well overall Overall, yes, it's seated pretty well. Well, we can talk about some Some uh, some absurdly over seated teams a little bit later Okay, uh, any upsets you're eyeing here ben in the south region You mentioned potentially having an upset as far as the final four But what are you looking at in terms of lower seated teams that might be able to make a put on a show here? Sure. Yeah. I mean, I think for a minute is kind of interesting over uva um, so I mean uva we've seen Like like their national championship now standing, which obviously is a huge caveat But they've had some, you know recent struggles uh in the first round with you know as as kind of the higher seated team um, and I think ferment is kind of well equipped to Take advantage So, I mean they they do a really good job of not turning the ball over and they shoot a ton of threes And I think the kind of like virginia packline defense, you know, they kind of are inviting you To to kind of tee off from three So I do think it kind of does play well in affirmant hands and if they if they you know have a hot night they can Certainly Okay, so firming the 13 seed facing off of virginia the fourth seed now virginia not quite as slow As they have been years past. Um, that was part of the reason they were Susageable to an upset uh in the umbc year was that they were just so slow It increased variance and stuff like that but not quite as bad there in that regard Ed, what about for you any upsets you're eyeing here early on the south region? Uh, I mean no, not really. I mean, this was this was a chalky region if I remember correctly. Um Yeah, I mean I respect Bama. I think I think yeah, you're going to play the odds They're going to come out of here Okay, so we're like in Alabama in the final four at least an ed side Bennett, I'm maybe a cretin maybe a baler maybe an arizona here as far as teams that could emerge there And then potentially firm it as an upset at least in Bennett's eyes For the east region any final thoughts for you Bennett before we move on and talk about the east No, let's uh, let's get into it Alrighty, well, let's talk about the east now where purdue is the one seed and ed We've talked purdue a bit on this show here so far this year You're lower on purdue Than the public is in general and it sounds like that is true here based on the betting markets based on You know public pick percentages and stuff like that. So How are you viewing them now that we know what their draw is for this year's tournament? I want to get for my children like the kindness that purdue and marquette have been afforded Uh in this region like whatever I can do. I I will do that. Um, this is uh, we often talk about the group of death in world cup This is the region of eternal life Legitimately make an argument that there's not a single top 10 team in the nation Uh in this bracket neither purdue nor uh marquette. We're in the top 25 of the preseason ap poll You certainly have to respect what they have done. Zacky. He's had a great season for purdue. They've they've been a really good team Uh marquette, man. I really had a you know, they had a really good performance Uh against ucon knocking them out of the big east tournament. Uh, tyler coluck is is an amazing player but But neither of these teams are really good There there's a couple teams in the west if we plugged them in as a four seed here I would make like a definitive favorite to come out of this region Um Yeah, so this is you know, I mean you can you can kind of go down this list and and and look at teams that Could potentially come out of here You know, kentucky is probably a very under seated six team Tennessee has dropped to a four after they they lost their point guards at kaizegler Probably a little under seated really a great defensive team haven't been playing like you recently but uh a team that's that's going to get down And uh, really make you work for your buckets Duke is a team that won their conference even though it might be a weak conference But a team that certainly has there's no shortage of talent even though coach k is gone. So so this is You know, if you go kind of strictly by the numbers like you would kind of see Uh purdue and marquette at the end, but I kind of don't expect to see that I think there's going to be a lot of chaos in this region um And uh, yeah, I think it's going to be fun to watch So even though you view it as being a weaker region, you still want to find ways to deviate from purdue and marquette here, correct? I mean, I think you can yeah, okay. I think if you looked at my numbers on my site I think you would have purdue and marquette Like meeting in the elite eight. Yeah, I just don't think that's going to happen. I think there's a lot um, I think like duke and kentucky are like Underachieving high ceiling teams that could could potentially play pretty well um Yeah, I mean kansas state is massively overseeded as a three. Uh, I find that pretty funny So I I don't really expect them to go kind of far. Michigan state's tough Uh, yeah, just just an interesting region overall Okay, let's talk to you now Bennett. Um ed is not suprime purdue not suprime marquette, but also Having troubles finding a good team to deviate with them here. So bennett, what about for you? Who is your final four? Emerger in the east Yeah, no, I'm I'm pretty much in agreement with with ed here I think this region is definitely the most likely to be kind of like chaotic and you know Some higher seated team that you weren't really seeing You know makes a big run. Um, not quite as sold on some of the top teams. Um Pretty I mean, I think with purdue was kind of interesting like a month ago I think a lot of people were out on purdue Um, and I was kind of interested to see, you know How they would look from like the public pick percentage stuff and then of course they just You know rip through the big 10 tournament now everybody's back in so I'm kind of back out um Marquette, I mean, yeah, they kind of had a similar story of like, you know running through, you know biggie's You know regular season and conference tournament and I you know, I think my numbers are just a bit lower on them Um, so yeah, I mean it's it's tricky here I also I'm like very out on kansas state. So Um, you know when you look at who's left basically, um, and like, you know, where you're ultimately going to go I mean my numbers show some slight value on tennessee I am a little bit concerned As ed mentioned with the zekai's eagler injury He's missed. Well, he tore his ACL, but he's missed the last few games But even before that they weren't really in great form Um, this is a team that is elite defensively, but really struggles to score So, you know now all of a sudden missing one of your key offensive initiators It's a little concerning, you know But I I do think if you're going to take, you know, kind of a contrarian shot as opposed to just going with You know the the purdy would market. I still do think like purdy and marquette are probably the most likely as I said Um, but I think if you're going to kind of go a little bit against the grain Um, I would consider tennessee and also kentucky, honestly um, I think For kentucky, I mean they have some kind of injury stuff to monitor as well. Um they between casein wallis Missing a little bit of time and and severe wheeler out the last like month or so Um, they've had to play like games at a time where they have zero point guards. That's Not fun. I'm in much madness, but casein seems okay. I mean he's he basically is just you know, he's He's tough, but he's playing through it. Basically. I don't think he's going to miss any time But that that kind of lack of depth is a little bit concerning. But yeah, you're not gonna There's no one team here that you know, I feel really great about so Um, you know, I think especially in a larger pool taking like kind of a long shot um Might be a better look. Um In a smaller pool, I mean, I think given the like high degree of uncertainty I would probably just chalk it up. I wouldn't it's tough to like guess Even if you think that this one region is kind of kind of go crazy Um, it's tough to you know, find the exact door to throw And really nail it. So I think I would be more conservative in a smaller size pool But I think in a larger pool. This is kind of where you get weird Yeah, fading Purdue Marquette is one thing But then identifying correctly who benefits is tougher and that's a difficult thing. So Ed I want to go back to you. You mentioned Tennessee Duke Kentucky as potential spots to go to to get a little bit weird Do you have a preference between those three? Are you mixing things up? How do you feel about that that in terms of your favorite of that group? Yeah, I mean, I really don't have a favorite again. I think as Bennett said, it's going to be Who who happens to play well, um Bennett did mention that Purdue ripped through the the big 10 tournament I will note that they did not have to play any of the next five best ranked teams by my numbers in that said big 10 tournament and they still You know kind of squeak through with the win. I think that kind of tells you all you need to know About this Purdue team, um, you know, as you mentioned to like I I kind of Forgot about this team. I think we talked about it on the pod gym and and I was like, yeah, Purdue Yeah, a little overrated. I was kind of seeing that in my numbers And then I woke up Sunday night and and I was like, oh geez they're on the one see I they're on the one line I guess I have to I guess I have to acknowledge them somehow um, but uh Yeah, I don't know It's it's going to be interesting, you know, like they could make it all the way through. I just I just somehow I just don't see it So looking into Tennessee looking to duke looking to Kentucky's potential spots to pivot as far as Teams going deep here within the east. I want to go back to you. You mentioned Kansas State You think that they are over seated Where do you think that bites them? Could it be a first round game against Montana State? Or are we talking more so once they meet Kentucky or Providence in the second round? Yeah, uh, let me I mean, you know, my numbers are gonna have Let's see Kansas State, so You know, it looks like 88 to go through that first round match. So, you know, you're probably looking to the next Team, I mean, Kentucky again is is a team that's underachieved but has a high ceiling With with Oscar cheap way and and and some other really good players there We'll see, you know, I mean a lot of this same core was that one seed last year, right that got upset. I think by Saint Peter's, right? So, yeah, let's say let's say Kentucky Okay, so Kansas State potentially leaving early in that three six matchup What about for you Ben any upsets you're looking at here in the earlier rounds in the uh in the east Yeah, I'm also not a big fan of Kansas State. I I don't really think they're gonna Lose that first game, but I think it could be closer. I like I took the point so I think uh, yeah, I think for that game too, though, that could you know, certainly be susceptible and upset You know, they turn it over a ton and they're they're very reliant on Basically just Keyonte Johnson and Marquis Noel to really, you know, create an isolation and Yeah, I'm just not quite a sold. Um, I think as far as like some of these other teams that could potentially Um, you know lower seeded teams that could make a move Um, I mean I like oral Roberts. We've got to talk about it. I think max savings is so good, but I mean Duke has really been Playing very well. So I don't I don't know if I have the stomach to you know, actually Take oral Roberts, but um If anything, it will be a very entertaining game Um, I do kind of think as we kind of get deeper into this if you if you really aren't believing in Purdue Um, I do think, you know picking like a Memphis or an FAU to kind of Um, you know make it to the weekend Um is kind of interesting So especially Memphis, I think would match up very very well against Purdue. Um, you know, they Forced turnovers at a very high rate. Um, and you know, Purdue's a lot of you know, younger Guards in their backcourt and then also just like, you know playing with a much faster pace whereas Purdue, you know very much wants to slow it down and just kind of like grind you down with, you know, Zachy post-ups So I think, you know that potential matchup I I try not to do like, you know too much into way too much into what one possible matchup could be when we You know It's not to play a whole nother game before that and if they use very good, but Um, I think that could be like an interesting spot if if we actually do get there How big of a pool would you need Bennett to have Purdue leave in the second round? Like are we talking? like 30 How how big do you need to get before you decided dump Purdue on the first weekend? Yeah, I mean, I think if I was in a pool with 30 people, I would know I would at least consider it. Um I mean, yeah, there's there's a lot. There's a lot of other, you know We we talked about it a little bit at the beginning, but like, you know other things to consider and You know, who else, you know might be in the pool and stuff like that, right? But um, you know, if you If you think a lot of people are just going to be putting Purdue right through, um, you know, it could be a decent opportunity Okay, well, let's shift focus here and talk about the Midwest where Houston is a one seed and we talked about them at As being the national championship favorites right now So it sounds like we're pretty high on them to emerge from this Midwest Any other teams you think could give them a fair fight out here or are you Considering getting off Houston later on if you don't make them their national champion I like Houston come out of this region. I think they're they're the best team in the country. Um If if I were Kelvin Samson, I wouldn't let Marcus Sasser even dress for the 16 Versus the 16 seed, you know, let him come back on the weekend Uh, when you're either playing Iowa or Auburn The team that like kind of confuses me in this region is is texas the two seeds I don't really know what to think they've been great by the numbers You know an elite team looks pretty good on both both offense and defense But it's a program that's had some turmoil with with chris beard being let go during the middle of the season They've obviously done really well um But it's also interesting because you know, none of the none of the players on that team really scare you in in any way you know, it's kind of a A team of really good players that seem to be gelling pretty well You know, they really thrashed kansas in the big 12 championship game But I kind of felt like that was just more like just an awful defensive game from kansas Uh, I don't feel like I can give texas too much credit. Maybe a little bit So that's a team that I I I want to say that, uh They're a little overrated, but they are on the two line. They do look good in the numbers So it's hard for me to to kind of figure that team out yet Either way, I mean, you know, I I don't expect them to be using And you mentioned that they don't have a lot of like high end talent and that matters for you You will look at preseason polls and sometimes factor those in Why is that a factor for ued when it comes to filling things out when we're in march? We've had a lot of games since that time For sure I mean the preseason ap poll is is a surprising predictor of postseason success And and the reason is wisdom of crowds that you have You know, no one sports writer is going to have a perfect poll Heading into the preseason, but you put together enough of them and you get a pretty good assessment of team strength Texas was I think 12th in the preseason ap poll, which is again, you know something that Is kind of between where they ended up in the numbers, which was pretty good, you know, maybe top five ish and um You know, so that suggests that the there was a little bit less talent That's when you thought you had chris beard there who is a defensive mastermind and they have been good um on the defensive side of the ball so Yeah, I definitely look at the preseason poll, you know, that's that's one reason I would make the argument that, you know, kentucky is a High ceiling team that that's kind of underachieved during the course of the season. I think they were top five in in the preseason poll Um, so yeah, definitely look at that. Uh, I definitely look at mba mock drafts as well to see which of these players have upside Uh, you know, sometimes it doesn't matter. I remember last year we were talking with, uh Someone on the the podcast and I was saying that like north carolina's brady man. It couldn't defend anyone on duke And then it turned out in that final four matchup like he was actually pretty good on defense and some critical possessions And I I just kind of lost it kind of there. So yeah, yeah In general, you want to you definitely want to bet on on talent and high upside. It doesn't know his work out Um, but but that's kind of my process Okay, uh, ben, let's go to you now. It sounds like based on your numbers where houston is undervalued one at all They're probably going to be undervalued to win The the midwest as well. Is that the case for you? Anyone else you're considering here? Or what's your view of the the final four contenders in this region? Yeah, my numbers are are pretty aligned with um, you know, the pick percentages that are out there for houston to advance to the final four Um, I you know, I I do really like texas and I think they're kind of the clear second best Team in this region. So I will probably just go with the top two seeds to get to The elite eight and face off I I also, you know, I'm not a huge fan of some of these other Kind of like, you know middle seed teams in this region So I you know, I think they are kind of like a clear cut above Um, and yeah, that's kind of what I'm expecting Yeah, so it looks like houston texas. So the teams are focusing on here Bennett, it sounds like we have a lot of chances to deviate elsewhere So if you're swallowing chalk in any region, is it most likely to be the midwest this year? Yeah, absolutely. I think especially if you're going to go houston anyway, um, so you're you know, you're obviously going to put them through Um, and then I think you know Rounding out the rest of this region. I'm looking pretty chalky give or take, you know One of these, you know minor upsets in the first round type thing Um, but I think you know the the higher seeds will hold for for most of the way So no major deviations in terms of the upper end But then any any upsets you do like here in the midwest as far as the earlier round games Yeah, so I have my eye on a couple. Um, so I think so I'm lower on Iowa State Um, I'm also they so they're going to play a potential playing team Mississippi State going up against Pittsburgh in that first. Exactly. Yeah, so I'm also low on Pitt. So I I think I would take them against Iowa State It would be it would be a very gross game because they they both Turn it over a ton and turn you over a ton and it would it would be You know a very messy game, but I do think like given the kind of like similar styles Um, that you you know, you might be able to screw up some value there If you know obviously, you know dependent on what happens in the first four. Um, I also like drake Over miami I'm I'm just you know, we talked about the acc a little bit and how I'm just kind of look lower On a lot of these teams and um, yeah, I think that's You know prevalent just based on the you know, what we've talked about so far, but drake I think I would say they don't do a ton of the stuff that you would Typically look for in like an underdog first round matchup But I just think they're like considerably more talented than they're getting credit for with their seed here So it's not like a the type of team that's gonna like, you know Play really slow and get a lot of offensive rebounds or but like really they have like I mean their best player tucker degrees is like going to go to them. Yeah, so I just think like most people You know, you see drake and you never think like, um, uh, this team has like, you know, real high level talent Redemption, I think though, you know, the line is reflective of the fact that it's probably going to be a close game I mean, I think we're seeing like two and a half now Um, so yeah, I mean, it's it's an upset, but it's you know, I'm not really It's not the greatest upset, you know, so You did redeem yourself within the state of Iowa though talking down on Iowa State earlier You did redeem yourself by talking up drake. So you're now welcome back in games wherever it may be You know, you're allowed to go back. I didn't realize Iowa's all the Iowa teams are in the same region Anyway, um, you are allowed to go back now and what about for you? Any upsets you see here in the Midwest in the earlier rounds? It sounds like we're going pretty chalky beyond that Probably I mean Texas A&M intrigues me. This is a team that's done pretty well in the SEC really tough conference made it all the way to the finals of the sec tournament, uh You know a team with some talented guards so, um Yeah, I mean Texas A&M over Texas. I mean, obviously, Texas is going to be favored in that game, but Uh, that I wouldn't be surprised with Texas A&M one And number fires numbers have that about 70 which is probably lower Um, or probably lower for Texas than uh, what you might see in the public pay percentages for that game So if we do get Texas versus Texas A&M that could be a fun spot to look at as well Final region we have not yet discussed is the west and the number one seed in the west is Kansas but as discussed before A lot of good teams here. So ed you said that the east is the region of eternal life the west Probably is a death region. So I want to ask you from like an overall perspective Does this strength of this region Impact your willingness to put any of these teams in the national championship game knowing they could potentially Be out early with how many tough teams there are here For sure. I mean, it's all accounted for in the numbers. So, you know, you would see a team like maybe Gonzaga have a higher Well, I mean, I don't even want to know what their one probability would be if they were in the east But yeah, no, I mean that should be reflected in the numbers, right? But yeah, this is this is the region of death, right? I mean, um I mean, yeah, I mean what it's probably the uh, you know, UCLA is probably one of the best two seeds out there They're really going to get hurt, but you know, they they might not be the same without jalen clark One of the better players But they're still a really good team Of course, northwest is probably going to win it all right, jim. So obviously I saw it someone on and facebook dj dj is my guy Uh, we've we he's been in our facebook chats for a long time dating back years He said boise state was a sleeper and dj Come on man. Just look at the hat. Look at the hat. Um I also have boise state winning mind don't tell the alumni association, but you know Just we'll say publicly they're going at all. Sure. We'll go with that Uh, I mean you just look through this region gonzaga, you know, like tcu's not a bad team at all I mean, gonzaga is not going to be favored by too much Even getting to the sweet 16 Uh, you look at the other side. Connecticut is a really good team coming out of the big east Got a couple of probable mba players at the wing position Good on both sides of the ball st. Mary's is like a very underrated very really good defensive team That that I really like program that I was always respected Yeah, so anyways, it's hard. It's hard. It's hard in this region Really excited to see some good basketball coming out of here How big is your consideration said ed when it comes to deciding who to have in the final four from the west Wait say say it again. What's my how big is your consideration said like how many teams? Do you think have the upside to win the west this year? I mean a lot. I mean like I mean if you're going to pick against the one seed, this is this is probably the best region to do it I think you have some really good teams in gonzaga and in connecticut. Um Wouldn't be surprised if either one of those came out Do you have a favorite deviation spot here ed in the west? Preferred team you want to go to or Still trying to work that out given we have a couple of days left before Yeah, I still try to work it out a little bit Okay, Bennett. What about for you? What's your view of this this west overall and who do you think is going to make in the final four here? Uh, yeah, no, so this is a really interesting region. I mean, uh, I just think obviously I completely agree with ed that it's you know Clearly the most stacked, you know region out of the four here I do think kansas is just getting Overpicked. I mean, I think they're a very good team. But I think like, you know, most people that are just kind of tuning in Oh, this team won last year. Oh, they're on the one line again Not really too much consideration to like how great this group really is so I um, yeah I'm probably gonna, you know be off of kansas because of that um UCLA I mean they're not getting picked like a ton but at the same time I think the injury stuff which we talked about a little bit So, um, yeah jaden clark. They're kind of like best wing defender um is going to be out for the whole tournament and then, um Like they're they're freshman center adembonanist the arizona game Um, that was their conference championship game on saturday Um, a lot of good big men in this region. So that's a bit of a concern if he can't go Um, that's I still haven't really seen much in terms of what his status is But that's like another thing to keep an eye on So to me, I mean, I kind of tease it at the beginning, but I kind of like, um, you know, teams like Gonzaga teams like uconn To potentially make a move I I do think the four of them are kind of, you know Sure, I think, you know, you know, some of these longer shots like, you know, st Mary's I respect a lot and same with tcu, but I just think given the quality of the region I think it really blows down to these four teams Um, and I think yeah, I mean a lot of it is also dependent on things like pool size Um, but I I think based on kind of like the Just, you know, pay percentage type stuff. Um, I would I would say Uconn and Gonzaga are two that I'm kind of keying on Right now, Gonzaga is in the final four in 16.8 percent of brackets at ESPN and uconn is an 8.8 percent So both those teams not super super high Gonzaga is above uconn here 16.8 percent again versus 8.8 percent when you hear those benets Lean for you. Do you want to go Gonzaga or does the increase allure of uconn all the way down 8.8 percent draw you their direction Yeah, I mean, I think again with pool size. I mean, I think if you're in a much larger pool I think uconn is appealing just because I show a lot more value on uconn at that 8 percent Then I would at you then I would at, you know, Gonzaga at 17 or 15 Um percent, so I think you know uconn is a team that if you're in a larger pool is is probably worth consideration Um, you know, they do have a trickier path, which I mean is reflective in the kind of like lower percentage but um, you know that really good defensive team a lot of balance Um, really struggled back in like january and are starting to really find their form Um, and you know, I team I have a lot of confidence in for sure Okay, and I want to talk to you here quickly. Uh, it sounds like the one thing we've said a long potentially is Not being on kansas to merge in the final four from this region Where are you at in like a smaller pool? Are you okay with kansas there or even in a smaller pool? Are you looking to lean into the chaos a tiny bit and fade them there? I'm looking to lean into the chaos Then it brought up a really interesting point kansas wanted all last year They're on the one line again. So of course, they're going to make the final four I I think there could be nothing further from the truth Uh last year they had ochai bodgy that christian brawn Two wings that are getting regular minutes in the mba right now And now they have uh, jailen wilson. Who's a good player, but he is not ochai bodgy Just look at his numbers. It's They're they're just not and they have a gray dick who's a freshman wing Who I think has a lot of potential But he often looks like a freshman at least when I turned on in kansas games Uh, they are not the same type of offensive team that they were last year and It's really really not the same team You know, there's no david mccormack Taking up space in the middle jailen wilson at six eight is their their tallest player Um, they're actually playing some remarkable defense given their lack of size but You know, like I was looking at my numbers from last year Like if genzaga went genzaga was kind of my prohibitive favorite in the numbers, but the second team was kansas So they're also on the one line kind of flew under the radar a little bit just because You know, I did like genzaga so much Given that, you know, I guess it's not surprising that they were able to to kind of work their way towards a national title Um, I just I just don't think it's the same team. They're even in smaller rooms. I won't underestimate them They're still a really good team. Sure. Yeah, they're one seed for a reason But um, even in smaller pools does sound like both benet and ed are off of kansas emerging from the west Ed any early round upsets you're on here in the west region? Early round upsets, jim, you know, I don't specialize in this I should clarify to It's like what I should clarify upset as well means not a betting upset because There is a 10 seed in this region that is favored over the 7 seed again. I'll take Yeah, that's I think it was one last I saw I I've I've really haven't looked at spreads much but like My numbers I was going to just say Boise State just the urky, but Actually, no, it is I did have northwestern going through here even though I feel like They're a team that's record has been better than their underlying metrics. Yeah I have them over Boise State It is a one and a half point spread right now for that game northwestern is actually favored, which is surprising to me But you know, no complaints. Anyway, um, benet, what about you any earlier on upsets you like here in the west region? Yeah, I mean, this is probably famous last words, but I don't have any that I that I love to be honest I mean, um, I think yeah, we talked about how good the kind of top teams are and I See any of them bowling out early. Um, I mean, I the closest like in terms of Like point spread seems to be probably that st. Mary's vcu game Um, vcu was a team like when they won their conference tournament. I was thinking, you know, depending on the matchup Um, you know, they they generate a lot of turnovers and you know, it's it's possible that it might work out But I I think it's a tough matchup against the st. Mary's team Uh, really don't turn them all over much at all and they they don't get sped up very easily. So I um, I'm probably just gonna stick with the gales there. Um, but yeah, I don't I don't I don't have a ton of uh, you know, these these kind of 512s, you know, 611 type games that uh, you know that I feel great about so I mean, don't force it, you know, if you have a lot of respect for A st. Mary's a lot of respect for Gonzaga, etc. etc. Then just, you know, having going further elsewhere and use your you've got So many ways to deviate elsewhere kind of use that to your advantage. Don't force In general upsets where they aren't there and kind of play things based on that and potentially fun with deviate later on the brackets That is each region But I want to go to both of you right now and ask you for any final thoughts on this 2023 immense college basketball Alternate before we send off everyone to fill out their brackets and let's start things off with you Any final words of wisdom any final thoughts you had out there before close up shop for today? I would just say I really do think it's a it's a year of parody. It's not like gas beer when Gonzaga was a huge favor It's not like 2019 when duke was a huge favorite Uh, we talked about Alabama. We talked about Houston. I think those are really good basketball teams but It could get really wild and um, I think it's you know, kind of more important to kind of dig under the surface Uh, look at that preseason eight people to look for upside look at injuries to see you know What whether those guys matter and and there are a lot of key injuries We've talked about a bunch of them the Zika Ziggler of Tennessee and and jaylen clark at a UCLA There's probably some that that i'm forgetting as well um Yeah, so I think it's a fun year. I think I I think uh, that might be bad for my business but I think it's gonna be from here to watch basketball and and Um, yeah, it's it's gonna be great You say it could be bad for business But also it could be good for the previous in the sense that when there's more parody I think advanced numbers matter even a bit more. Don't they? Yeah, for sure I I would agree with that and and I think like with the way that I dig into stuff from members of my site Like that's going to be more important and uh, I hope those insights are right I hope the the the teams that I think have a chance to maybe surprise and win a national championship Are the ones that actually do so? um And yeah, yeah, the metrics do matter and in particular. I think some of the metrics that I keep behind my paywall are Pretty important because they get past just kind of the year long numbers that a lot of other sites will will have um, you know, for example, I think I think, um Someone was telling me that 538 has like houston at 25 percent or something using season long numbers That's a little too high. Yeah so, um, yeah, so it's It's an interesting year at least for me to kind of dig in the teams to to say Okay, well, which one of these models that I have really reflect the true strength of this team How do I adjust for that based on what's happened? You know Injuries so on so forth, you know I mean bill self was in the hospital all week for the big fall tournament. How much does that matter? you know and and uh On the surface seem like it really mattered because kansas stunk Against texas. They were really bad and they got blown out by 20 points um So, yeah, just it's fun. It's it's fun to dig into this stuff and uh, we might see some wild stuff in this tournament It could be a lot of fun doesn't like bill self will be able to coach uh during the tournament He's out of the hospital now, but uh, scary situation for sure there What about for you ben any final words of wisdom before we send people off to fill out their brackets? Yeah, no, I definitely agree with ed about the the kind of parody this year um, and I would just kind of you know, try to pay attention to You know different kind of the different paths that each team has um, and you know trying to find spots where you know, you're Just have a greater chance of getting you know, even to that kind of final four um track so regions like the Like the east where we talked about where it's you know, it could be a bit of a mess I think that's definitely one to watch But yeah, no just really excited for everything to go It should be a lot of fun I know we finished up talking about individual regions upset stuff like that But it's important to remember what matters most that is Finding your national champion getting all those points and using strategy to your advantage based on pool size and much more That is all that we have here for today So i want to give a big thank you once again to benet corcoran and dr. Ed fang You can find benet on twitter at six one seven benet benet. I appreciate the time Good luck to you with your bracket anything. Uh, where people want to find your work over at shock quality If they want to dig into the the numbers you have over there before the tournament begins Yeah, no, thank you. So uh over at shot quality bets dot com We have a lot of analytical tools game predictions. Uh, we have like a value finder bracket where it's basically Kind of leveraging some of this public pick percentage stuff and seeing like oh You know based on our percentages, you know, where they're kind of key differences and things like that. So A bunch of relevant material over there. So definitely check that out. I might be Doing a bit more content. Um, this time of year as well. So maybe yeah, maybe some maybe some articles. We'll see so Stay tuned. Yeah, definitely definitely keep up on twitter and Um, yeah, we'll see how much time it's it's a busy time of year, but Getting benet in the content streets. This is dangerous dangerous times But uh, looking forward to it. I'm gonna check that out myself over at shot quality But find benet on twitter at six one seven benet. Hopefully you can be back on the show here again Talk some more college basketball before the year is done. You can find ed on twitter at the power rank You can find his work at the power rank dot com ed What's going on for you there this week in a very busy week for you in the site? Yeah, busy fun week. Uh, I've taken kind of a lot of um, kind of my best freshest insights and put them into the newsletter I've been putting them into the podcast the the past couple years Uh, just in work out to kind of do that with the time commitment this year So a lot of it will go to the newsletter. You can sign up for that at the power rank dot com You'll also get my cheat sheet. Uh, if you're looking for a last minute fix for for filling out your bracket It's based on my public point space numbers. So you can check that all out at the power rank dot com There there's all kinds of good stuff game by game predictions There's uh, the wheel that has all win probabilities round by round as well. So Uh, yeah, go play around there have fun with it. And uh, yeah, let me know if you have any questions And as ed mentioned that the member numbers are key as well So find those over at the power rank dot com check out the football analytic show wherever you get your podcast I'm on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s We have more nc double a tournament talk coming up on wednesday We're gonna talk about the thursday and friday gains from a betting perspective then so if you want to bet those two games Come back here wednesday nfl free agency tomorrow on the show Uh, but plenty more to come here on the covering the spread podcast feed So search for that wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well Also, check us out every weekday over on the fan dual youtube page if you're watching on youtube and saw us Sharing the number fire metrics you can get those by subscribing to number fire That is the paid subscription for this time of year. So just go to number fire dot com click on the uh Banner at the top for march madness. Make sure you're subscribed there to fill out your own customized brackets the win probabilities stage odds game simulators and much more Want to wish you all a happy nc double a tournament it is here It is going to be fantastic a lot of fun to be had this year go win yourself some money Good luck to everyone. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network