 Week 10 is very much an if I had told you slate because if I had told you earlier on this year that we'd be super excited about the Bears and the Lions on the main slate in week 10 Probably had a weird reaction to that if I had told you that the Dolphins browns would feature one of the most explosive Offenses in football and I wouldn't hate the Browns as well That'd be intriguing and if you had told me I think the Jags can kind of hang with the cheats and make that game enticing I Probably to believe it because I did like the jacks in the air, but Either way, it's a weird slate. We're gonna break down Should we actually be confident in these spots? How well we can feel about those game stacks and our priorities across week 10 over on Fanduel.com. This is the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number fire that's right here on the Fanduel podcast network and number fire.com. My name is Jim Sanis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm joined here as always by Brandon Gadoula He is the senior managing editor of number fire comm and Brandon week 10 Looking weird. That's what the word I would say for it. How you doing today? Yeah, it is weird. I was looking at our note sheet and The way that the process always works is we determine three games to talk about and the you know The odd section the games with like the most intriguing totals and then from there We'd look at the teams that we're not discussing but I was throwing out the sheet last night after you had your trends in and I went up to the to the bookmaker info section and I was like Okay Bears Lions Dolphins Browns What is going on like how are these like the The best shootouts of the week. How is it not like if if we were looking ahead of time looking in week one We'd say oh man. We got Rams Cardinals. That's pretty fun Not knowing it'd be John McCoy potentially. Yeah cowboys Packers would have looked pretty sweet Viking's bills Vikings bills That one looked pretty okay on Monday too until yeah for one out for Josh Allen potentially But you know, I probably then okay with like Raiders Colts. I guess yeah, maybe I still should be I don't know I don't know how to read that stupid team and that could be afraid either team That stupid team is a you a broad for that game Yeah, yeah, it's weird. It was you know, it's peculiar and I was looking at like, okay What teams are left over to talk about and it's like some big-name teams that yeah, we'd normally just be like, yeah Definitely like look look deeper into them and I'm like No, I don't really know. Let me let me talk about the Giants. I guess yeah It's it's a wild one and yeah We talked about this a lot with PGA, but there's a benefit to being tuned in maybe when there's like a weak field. Yeah I'm not calling this like a weak slate and a weird slate though The NFL is very different where like yeah, everyone's tuned in like you can ask almost anyone who remotely fall us to a ball And they're like, oh, yeah, the Rams are kind of struggling So like they're not gonna be like, oh, I'm gonna stack, you know, like Rams Cardinals or anything like that but I Still think there's a way to get a bit of a leg up by just Trusting some teams that might have some long-term question marks, but maybe have a Fewer question marks this week than some others or teams that might have a team total of 17 Potentially we'll talk about that throughout the show for today and get you set to let you know where we are turning for week number 10 But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast See wherever you get your podcast Tom Vecchio has you covered on the NBA side of things every weekday with the daily iso We've got PGA podcast still one more before the layoff and also twice weekly NFL shows along with USC for the big events So search for the number fire daily fantasy podcast See wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe and also for the NFL ones We are live on YouTube 10 a.m. Eastern on Monday and Thursday hit the like button there if you're watching over on YouTube and Subscribe the fangirl YouTube page as well Now is the perfect time to download fangirl America's number one sportsbook because right now new customers getting no sweat first bet up to $1,000 that's free bets back if your first bet doesn't win try out features like same-game parlays Wager on everything from touchdowns to totally yards to catches all on and out that's safe secure and super easy to use the sign of today Very no sweat first bet make every moment more this season with fangirl official sportsbook partner of the NFL must be 21 plus in select states First online real money wager only refund issued is non-withdrawable free bets that expired 14 days Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook dot fandewald calm gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit fandewald calm slash RG in Arizona 1 800 next step or Texan acceptify 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit cc pg.org slash chat in Indiana 1 109 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1 810 5 2 2 4700 in Kansas KS gambling health comm in Louisiana one eight seven seven seven seven zero stop in New York One eight seven seven eight hope and wire text open why in Tennessee call the red line at one eight hundred eighty nine nine seven eight nine Let's open things up here talk about these slate overview for week number ten and brand of the key thing for me we're looking at this slate right now is deciding where I can justify spending down and as of now to me through a combination of Available value that I don't feel bad about and other factors. I think those two key spots are receiver and tight end I think there actually are some okay slash acceptable receivers this week who are below six thousand and Tight end. It's just basically Kelsey or betting against by paying down which is tough Because it's Kelsey against the Jags and like Kelsey is very good super high implied total stuff like that But I think we have some viable lower salary tight ends too So that's kind of the key thing for me is is deciding where I want to spend down and how to feel and how to attack it when doing so What stands out for you a week 10? Yeah, I think the one of the things is just because you mentioned it Kelsey I don't know if this is a week to go full fade on Kelsey if you're building multiple lineups No, it might not be your main lineup construction, but Kelsey can put up 20 25 No one else can really do that predictably Especially with some quarterback concerns this week. That's gonna lower touch turn expectations, which are super important for tight end so that's one thing but I Believe I mentioned this on the Monday recap because I have a skeleton lineup here with this situation going on but I Think it's I think we should be open to a wide receiver in the flex this week. I there are some Not can't miss options, but say Juan Barclay and Derek Henry both could erupt in these particular matchups We have a few like I love Travis ETN at 8,000 We love Daven Cook for reasons we'll get into At that salary, but there aren't a whole lot like there's not a long list of running backs that I feel Super great about especially ones at lower salaries. I feel pretty decent about some lower salaried receivers So I might end up building my main lineup with a receiver in the flex, which I almost never do We get about one or two weeks out of the year where we end up doing that This might be one of them. I think that's fully fair and it's fully on the table this week because There are just more receivers. I like who are like I Just don't like all the running backs with salaries below 7,075 and if I'm gaining in three of those guys I can't get pretty tough. So I think Keeping an open mind with regards to the flex and potentially using a receiver there. I think that makes a lot of sense I'm not opposed to that. I think that's a good thing to shout out here from the get-go Especially because there's one quarterback for me who's really separating and that's Patrick Mahomes at 85 Why would that be is he good or something or he's he's he's very good. Oh, okay Maybe we'll talk about him at some point. I'm not really sure but let's start things off here with another Very good quarterback and that's a sad one. Josh Allen is day-to-day with an injured UC Allen is throwing elbow. I Do a lot of baseball stuff UCL is like not the thing I want to hear ever. He didn't practice Wednesday The fact that he hasn't been ruled out yet At least to me is encouraging for the long-term outlook for Josh Allen But we don't know if he'll play this week. I think based on looking at the spread for this game Bookmakers are viewing this as 90% chances case Keenum 10% is Josh Allen. So If Alan does play will you trust any bills knowing he's not fully healthy? And if he sits, how will you view them with case Keenum as the quarterback? Well, this kind of is a simple one because the bills for as fun as they are They're really three guys with Josh Allen Stefan Diggs and Gabe Davis. I Want to make sure you're working to say single digits as opposed to Davis good. I'm proud of you. No, thank you So it's you know, you take Alan. All right. So like let's say first Alan's not a hundred percent We have Gabe Davis who already is living on Low volume and hyper efficiency the efficiency just by nature if Alan is not if he's this hurt And it can be better. I mean he could in theory catch four of his five targets and have like big plays on them But the expected efficiency has to be down and for digs at ninety one hundred There's really no room for error for him to be just okay or to have You know worse efficiency on his volume So if Alan plays I think it's hard to justify either of them and then you just transfer that same logic over with Keenum where The efficiency is very unlikely to be there for digs to destroy us for not rostering him at ninety one and Then Davis, I mean again, he can still catch like a bomb, but it's sixty five hundred like that's not you kind of need You need more you need the threat of a game Davis like three touchdown game or two touchdown game So like really need to build around him. So I think I'm just out on the bills either way I think so too Like Alan won't be fully healthy if he plays and I Don't think they have a lot of it like they do have a lot of incentive to win this game because they want the one See in the ass sees like they have a lot of incentive I just think that like they need to take a long-term view with this because UCL That could be he'd be missing the first sort of the start of next year if like that were to get really bad So I think they'll be smart with it What if what if I were to say to you and Anyone who listens to the show knows that Jim's gonna have a big reaction here But what if I were to say to you well They're gonna lean on the run game more. So why isn't Devin Singletary more in play? I'm not gonna react a lot because I know that you don't believe this you're playing devil's advocate and asking What people may be asking so I'm not gonna get mad at you I won't get mad at them either because I understand people would ask this but for running back we want Efficiency and we want touchdown chances and both those things take a hit when You don't have a freak is like quarterback and Josh Allen and Devin Singletary doesn't produce when Josh Allen's out there I'm not talking just like getting vultured. He is at 69 yards per game In his eight games this year and now might lose some more to Naheem Heinz and James Cook. So no for me Is it a no for you as well? Yeah, it's a no He's performing under expectation too. So like shocker, right? I mean you inject that with the worst quarterback again You're gonna fewer red zone trips If the volume might go up so you might have like I mean he did have like a 17 carry 85 yard game against the chiefs With five targets 22 yards didn't score. So you had 12.7 fandal points Give them a touchdown in that it's 18.7. That's Probably the best case if you're tied to case kingdom. So Even at 56. I'm not very drawn in I agree We are also gonna some grossness in the Rams Cardinals game Matthew Stafford is in concussion protocol Kyler Murray this practice Wednesday with a hamstring injury the Interest for me in this game was already pretty muted going in now you take away the two quarterbacks. I Mean like if Kyler plays I'd still you know, you could consider rendezvous consider Deandre Hopkins But would these injuries make this game a cross-off for you? almost like Define almost please. So I think very dumb that I'm gonna be mad about I Screenshot it like the the worst Dumbest like screenshot. It's all compressed and squished and I just had the two quarterbacks And I think Jim thought that I was actually considering the two quarterbacks here. Oh, you're not it was just a troll. Oh good. Okay, I Thought I thought I was clear that I was not how How how is this clear you screen shot it and put it in the notes Did you see how we'll we'll I'll tweet the screenshot, but I mean look how bad that screenshot is it was very clearly not topic design is your passion. I don't know like so so To answer your your question actually I think it's like an almost Like an almost cross-off The two main assets here and it's similar like the digs conversation. We have cup at 92 we have Hopkins at 83 It is very hard for them to Make us regret not rostering them tied to backup quarterbacks. Yeah at those salaries So, you know, if this was like a situation where There were salary down because we knew these injuries beforehand. I'd be more open to it at those salaries. I can't I Will say and we likened James Connor to Devin Singletary in On Monday's recap show. I think I'd still be open to Connor at 6300 if I really need some savings He had a really good snap rate over 70% He can score touchdowns like I feel like if they're in the red zone that James Connors Production his role is much more stable than than Devin Singletary. So He's the only option. I think I'd realistically consider and that would still be like he'd be like RB six from here Something like that. Can I read you his yard since scrimmage? I know I know his yardage. I read it to you. Sure. You can 55 57 77 64 So he's getting work, but he isn't doing Jack Diddley with it So I don't really care like that's her production over everything Brandon. Remember the Packers got some I would say decent injury news Wednesday Christian Watson was a full-in practice They said he did not suffer a concussion last week, which is a relief because he had one week eight So I was hoping he didn't have one. He didn't so that's good He'll be cleared Aaron Jones limited which is better than I expected sounds like he'll be good to go To so we'll talk about the Cowboys in the trend section But does having Watson and Jones all through your view of this Packers offense against the Cowboys? Jones. Yes Watson less. So just because I won't play Christian Watson. Anyway, I think was artist though clearly the number one Unfortunately, Robert Tonion did not display that he was a true TE one Last week we just mix it in with Josiah de Guara and Mercedes Lewis, which you don't love to see so first Mercedes Lewis got a target in the reds. I'm like, oh You don't you don't love to see that so I can't go to Tonion. I mean lozard Still gonna be the guy in terms of the past catchers. It does keep Asia dealing off the list. It's 7,000 He could have been Without Aaron Jones someone that I just rostered a lot of sort of begrudgingly Because of the salary being what it was, but I do think that Aaron Jones at 7,200 like the downside sort of baked in at that salary Even if he doesn't get you know, a full workload, maybe he loses some goal line touches to Dylan if he's not a hundred percent, but I Guess the other issue is like I like that Prescott at salary I like that the Cowboys a bit But I think that Jones for me to bank on him on his being worth 7,200 even is More game stacks only. Yeah, I think I'm probably with you on Jones I could see lozard having a bit of appeal outside of game stacks because his role has been really good in the games that he Has played on scrolling. I took too many notes this week. This is don't be prepared. I work too hard I care too much. I take too many notes. I think I'm actually just not organized. No, I actually didn't take this note Wow more on okay But lozard in The games he has played has had a really good role. I I poo pooed his downfield role. That was stupid I made a mistake. Sorry. Oh We were talking earlier. I I know But in the games lozard has played his role has been really good. So he's 67 I think I'd prefer Christian Kirk at 68 and a modern on st. Brown But I also might be in this range enough where I could still get to Zard being viable outside of game stacks I think because I like Kirk and in st. Brown more I might not get to lozard outside of game stacks But I'm receptive to it is what I would say and I do like the Cowboys too So I'll probably have some game stacks and the lizard is pretty intriguing there Yeah, I mean the salary's fine. Why did I blow up here? I don't know. He's like zoomed in your camera got real close All right, how's that? It's better. All right. You just do that at like dramatic moments during the podcast like it's in Yeah, yeah, I should have done that as soon as you mentioned the lizards a dot Yeah Yeah, I see the appeal I think 67 a Bit much sure to make him like a core play sure I agree Again Kirk is my preference there. I'm on Rossi Brown by far a preference. I still think I'd go juju Smith's Euster over lasard I Can go either way there Okay, and then it jumps up to Chris. I'll obviously no one else is really like in the conversation But again, those are four names there that I'd be open to yeah at receiver And that's another reason why like I'd be open to the flexing receiver. So Again, I think was art is much more not I'd play him without without the game stacks. I don't know if I'd get there to with Jones I kind of need that game to like go back and forth and that Jones just outperform expectations I think I agree. Okay, David and Joakim is practice Wednesday with his ankle sprain He said he thinks they'll play Kevin Stefanski has not ruled him out yet, but not ideally in practice We'll talk about them in the bookmaker section Miko Harbun is practice Wednesday with an abdominal injury Andy Reed said it was soreness But it's hard to tell what the status is for Hardman We'll talk about them in the bookmaker section as well This one's not an injury, but there's buzz the Steelers could bench Naji Harris or Jalen Warren They get the Saints at home Warren salary is fifty three hundred dollars Would you consider him or is this offense just too dusty to consider? It's pretty dusty I think like The full-on benching like if Naji just gets benched and Warren's plan like the Naji rule Maybe like would you play Naji Harris at fifty three? What a question that is I had to think hard about it. I didn't say yes. Yeah, I know I I live in Steelers country and every now and then someone will ask me like what I thought about like the Naji Harris pick and I try to be Diplomatic, but now don't do that Naji's been inefficient Warren's been inefficient as well not not as bad As Naji I have a hard time believing that a role change here means like it's just Warren playing like 80% of the snap right closer to 50-50. It's probably just dusty. It's probably not worth it So I'm not going there. I think that's our mat too. I would need to get like a shifter report specifically Adam Schefter report That like Jalen Warren will be a featured back for the Steelers to do it now We're not gonna get that. I don't think yeah if we get that cool I'll go but definitely running at that. Yeah in that same game Jarvis Landry got an eliminated practice Wednesday He practiced last week, but ultimately sat Mark Ingram also missed practice Wednesday with his knee injury if Landry plays Would it alter your view of Alvin Camara and Chris Olave or no? Not really I think he would eat into like the other guys the the tertiary and the quaternary options for this team of They have those even like they're there. They're physically on the field, but I don't they do I mean Marquess Calloway, I treat one Smith Joanne Johnson. No, well Joanne Johnson, maybe what are you talking about? I'm listening. I'm saying let me finish. I Don't want to hear talk about Marquess Calloway on this podcast I don't care since Chris Olave returned after you use Marquess Calloway in the single game on Monday Since Chris Olave came back in week seven Olave's got a 29% target share Camara is at 22% and then you have three guys between 10 and 12% with Calloway Smith and Johnson. I Think that Landry will just take away that kind of share from those guys not really like Chris Olave It's now an 18% target share option. So I'm not that concerned about Olave and Camara I don't know if I like this game enough to Build around a ton of Chris Olave, but that's a Camara's in play, right? Oh, he sure is. Yeah. Yeah, for sure. Okay, cool Josh Reynolds was practice Wednesday with his back injury. He sat out last week because of that We'll talk about them in the bookmaker section We noted on Monday that Evan Ingram hurt his back late in week nine He was able to get in a limited practice Wednesday, which should put him on track to play We'll talk about that game in the bookmaker section. Darren Waller got in a limited practice on Wednesday with his hamstring issue. He's been practicing for a while, but hasn't played They get the Colts this week any interest in Waller or Foster Morrow depending on who plays Foster Morrow in it We've learned that I think I feel like Darren Waller would still be limited. I mean he's been injured for nine years It even if he plays not gonna be fully healthy, so it's probably just They kind of cannibalize one another so I'm out. Yeah, I think I agree there We should know that Devonte Adams is on Jeff Saturday's fantasy team So Devonte is gonna go nuts. Is there a narrative for that? We'll figure it out, but Oops, we left Devonte open. Oh Well, although that happens Devonte makes that happen sometimes anyway, so correct. Where are you Adam Devonte this week? She had a curiosity What is that salary eighty three five four three two one five eighty five? I don't I don't hate it. I actually so Earlier in the week, I was thinking about like the slate overview and I was thinking like okay Well, we have a very like narrow pool of running backs who are great But we have all these receivers who could really go off and then like cup digs Hopkins all have Quarterback issues You know love Tyree kill, but nine thousands of like a bit much Not to sort of build around unless I prioritize the receivers So Devonte was like someone I considered like okay Maybe I just try to treat the receivers traditionally as we treat the running backs and we try to get like two guys in the you know 75 to 8000 in up range And if we can get to a superstar we do but like I'm a little bit lower because there are fewer guys who can burn us if we had all these guys full go I would be the FOMO would have me much higher on all of them including Devonte I agree that Deon Jackson is practice Wednesday with his knee injury Jonathan Taylor though returned He seems on track to play they didn't list if he was limited or full on the injury report They just had nothing in that column for some reason. I'm pretty sure he's limited though But if we assume the JT plays What's your interest level with the Colts entire team? Seeming like a hot mess right now Is it legal would you like to say that? Not to clarify like to what extent he practiced I'm assuming you as a clerical error Someone probably just messed up They knew what they were doing They're trying to throw us off the scent. Yeah, I mean, it's JT. They knew that people would care. I care So Vegas is decent against the run Ellen here is Not we his debut was kind of promising Overall now the large sample is not ideal. I don't I don't think I could get there I think he'd be in playing tournaments If he comes back in his JT, we're gonna be kicking ourselves. That's kind of what we've been talking about since Was it like week three that he's been? Yeah, I And that's not just like that can sound like a Bit of a goofy thing to say like well if he just is this guy like You play him. It's like it's an AJ green situation like if AJ greens AJ green again, like yeah You know D on Jackson got nothing extra last week out of his workload I think that Taylor could see a lot of work if he's full to go. So I'm gonna pull Jim if he's full in Practice by Friday. I will play Taylor in tournaments. If not, I will probably just sit this one out Just gonna echo that copy paste what you said put it for me. I'm good, you know, I think that's exactly what I would say too I want to full practice by Friday and then I'll probably be there for tournaments. I'll put a lid on the exposure I'll gave Davis him. Yeah, you know 30% probably is right up to cap it But I'm fine at that I'm having fun having risk in those 30% because I think the upside's worth it given that He's not going to be on many rosters with the stinker on the colts right now Kj. Hamler is reported dealing with a hamstring injury coming out of the Broncos by he was limited Wednesday Maybe he's doing high knees in the plane and pull this hammy because he was healthy in London We'll talk about the Broncos offense in the trend section. Ryan Tannehill limited Wednesday due to its ankle He's missed two games with that ankle injury How much when having him start versus Malik Willis alter your view of Derek Henry and then also alter you in the Broncos Broncos offense Would change a lot. I like Derek Henry a good amount this week Tannehill's been on a per play basis if you adjust for opponents 0.07 passing that expected points per drop back over expected Willis a minus 0.73 which is About as bad as I've ever seen I can't hear you might have muted yourself while you were drinking coffee. Are you muted? I can't hear you now Okay It would change a lot. I like Derek Henry a good amount As it is, but Henry for me is kind of in the Saquon conversation I know that you were trying to go with me and do a Saquon first is Derek Henry back before the show and I would not do it because I I like both this week, but having Tannehill back. I think is more impactful even for the Broncos offense It's not it's not like an ideal situation against the Titans defense, but I think the Titans defense can be a little bit over Overvalued because of the fact that they were able to stifle the Chiefs a bit Are you back? No, I can't hear you I just realized that I actually was on mute that whole time I thought that I put my microphone again, so I jumped out and I was like, okay, cool. I'll get back in. We'll be fine Um, I realized though that I actually did put it on mute. You said that I know I heard you say it I could hear I know and you I pretty sure you said no And I'm like, okay. Is it on is it on my end because I did mess with my camera Uh trying to turn the quality down to make my stream better because it seemed like I was lagging a little bit I am a professional Podcaster Well, it's not good live. We'll cut it out. Um, yeah, definitely YouTube ignorance So where I was with that conversation is I like Henry a lot For me, it's more about like the The Titans defense probably being a little bit overrated at this point because of what they did to the Chiefs So I think that uh, we're in a spot where We can probably buy a little bit low on the Broncos. I agree. Uh, the Titans defense is really We're relying on third and fourth down heroics And that's fine Like that's good to be good there But their personnel is not great and that's showing up nearly downs So the Broncos can stop Bleeping around and do something. I think they can take advantage here. Uh, so I would say for Henry It's a slight downgrade to be will is because like at least, you know, he'll open up some running lanes for him Stuff like that. That's that's a good thing. Um, I prefer tana hill for the overall offensive efficiency Yeah, but willis being in there would would Slightly downgrade the Broncos because I think the odds that game gets gross are higher. Um, I'd still use them, but yeah Would hurt a bit. Let's go now to the bookmakers section for week number 10 and a weirdly fun game We got the the bears and the lions in Chicago total 48 and a half. The bears are three point favorites here Justin fields improvement is obviously the catalyst for this high total But it's also just two really bad defenses So the problem is the bears don't have many viable plays split backfield not a lot of passing volume The lions are limited as well. So what's your read on this game from a stacking perspective? Yeah, it's tough. Um Like justin fields a good bit. I think you could justify darnel mooney at 62 but You know talk about yardage upside like he's a guy who we know has yardage upside Doesn't really display it a lot and it's because it's hard to do whenever your quarterback is has one game with over 200 yards like For you to get 100 yards in your quarterback to have 200 you gotta have half half the yards And again, that's being a bit generous with like fields is per game average with his yardage. So It's tough. You're banking on touchdowns and a lot of the touchdowns are going to come on the ground So if I play fields, I I almost think I might be a detriment to stack him with mooney because the ceiling is so capped. Yeah and Even if mooney, you know has a touchdown in like 70 yards That might not be enough relative to his salary. So like you might hit on that stack with a touchdown, but Probably not gonna get there. Um, so that's I think that's all I can do No clay for the bear side It's the same I think I I would say no clay pool as well. Yeah, it's the same like the same conversation really and honestly darnel mooney Possibly a lot better than chase clay pool I'm not super in on darnel mooney, but I think the dean's skeptical of clay pools fine. Yeah, so like co-commet I Don't really I can't get there myself I mean, he's got three touchdowns in the past two games. I think that's gonna just Some be something that people chase I agree So for me, I think the bears are just fields on the other side. It's a little more fun um With at least almona rossin brown But I can't touch the running backs Yep, um Not going with like the super value tight ends So like this might be like a One qb one one skill player game of the week I think that's why it's tough is because like it is a good game Like we want games with high totals tight spreads and this does that but it's such a a narrow path to production on both sides so to me That means I should probably just like not be Super into this game like I would say Almona rossin brown is definitely a guy I'll use outside of game stacks. He is Not a I would say he's a borderline cash game priority not a consideration He's a cash game priority very close to it at least I would say and fields Probably a top three quarterback play this week, right top three ish Yeah, I mean, they're only three Like if I'm if I'm being generous maybe five Who's the fifth? Well, if I go my home is fields to a Dak like maybe I could find another one like that's what I'm saying like me. Oh, okay Yeah, I think it's like maybe laurence or something like my question to you is going to be like, okay We we know that this game is uh high total. We know it's a tight spread um Almost always like there's a There's a really good correlation between opposing quarterbacks um The problem is we don't notice that as much because we don't we can't stack quarterbacks I'm just playing super flex. Like would you consider your guy? Your your your personal hero my son at 72. Yes. My son is my hero. Um No Because hawkinson not being there. I think lowers his passing efficiency and you need golf to be like absurdly efficient Yeah, he was fine last week, but Like it wasn't good enough to convince me that he'll be okay long term without hawkinson. So no, I don't think I can get there Are you going to use your guy cleaf Raymond? Yeah, probably not So I really do think it is just fields and brown or is any brown and like we talk about how like we want to know Where the ball is going it might be too concentrated here. Um, so like if you give me Let's say I'm in a a 10 entry max tournament I don't know if those even exist hypothetically if you give me 10 entries I might just have like only two of fields and have same brown and both I I I can't get really super high on this game because it's so so narrow. It's too narrow almost Yeah, I mean it's narrow in the sense of like who we can use But it's dispersed in terms of where the ball like both running backs could have like exactly 10 fandal points for Both teams honestly Like that's that's tough And then it's it's the passing volume like I like Justin Fields I think people are going to be really really high on Justin Fields and for a good reason but that doesn't mean that like this is like classic Lamar Where you just be open to playing him by himself and not forcing stacks which could kind of kill your lineups if Chase Claypool turns his five targets into 38 yards Yeah, I agree and I think that to me it's a It does limit the appeal of the game as a whole because of that One game that I think has more appeal at least for me is the Browns at the Dolphins Dolphins three and a half point favorites total is 48 and a half and We know that we love the Dolphins passing game. Obviously the sour is very high. Um But the Browns are particularly putrid against the rush so Are you looking at Jeff Wilson here and which pieces are you highest on this one? Also, hi. How did you in two levels toss one more in there? Um, the Browns have been a little bit better recently like the full sample is bad for the Browns This season against running backs. They're getting a little bit better um But I'm not really factoring that in because Jeff Wilson We talked about uh Wilson versus Mosher on Monday Very promising to see Jeff Wilson's role be what it was. Uh, each had nine carries Wilson three three targets to two ran more rounds as well um As you as you mentioned like got more involved as the game went on. So it's pretty safe to say that He is Not like a priority play But he's the best running back play in the six thousand range which Saying that makes me realize like why I'm so open to tight end or uh, sorry. I receiver at the flex Like between Jeff Wilson and Jerry Judy. Who do you prefer? Like for pure ceiling In tournaments like Judy his roles. Yeah, I think it's very much up in the air Which is usually not usually a viable six thousand range running back will be better than a six thousand range receiver I think it's pretty even this week um And like if you compare Wilson to lasard kirk and iman rasain brown It's a little bit higher salary, but like I probably lean towards the receivers there, too So I like jeff wilson and I will use jeff wilson this week. Um He had a 71 snap right and early downs in the second half I think they got him for a reason and that reason is they want to keep rihim most dirt in more of like a limited role Then he was in so I will use wilson Um, he will not be a cash gameplay for me But he will be in there for tournaments and I will feel okay about that. So i'll be there, uh, toa I would say Number three, I think it has to be my home's one has to be fields two And I think I'd put toa above dak personally, but I I get why people would like dak I think dak's four for me for sure, but I put to above salary thing though Yeah, but I think I can make it work um With toa and tyreek or waddle for this week. Um, yeah, so I'll still I'll still stack toa and rank him number three And I feel pretty good about him. I would also say that like The reason I typically dislike the browns is because They are very run heavy and early downs But I think there's a shot they get like torched early on in this game Which could lead to more passing attempts. Is it the most likely scenario? No because the spread is three and a half for a reason but like If they do get behind dot even peoples jones, uh, 19 target share in the games he's played With in joku in a joku not of all health right now 28 deep share in that time for dpj as well dpj's salary is 5700 dollars I'm Way more into him than I've ever been my entire life Um, given the yardage upside he's shown recently Given the fact that joku's banged up given they could fall behind early I think that all combines to make him and this passing offense in general much more viable than I typically would treat it as being Yeah, I'm with you with the passing offense Problematically a mariku per 78 and I cannot see myself getting there In joku not 100 at 58. You're kind of that's like his If in joku is fully healthy He's in play at 58 if he's not that's a bit of a concern um, so it might just be uh dpj in terms of the pass catchers. I will say As always like nick chubb has slate altering upside, but miami has been really good against the rush their third best in rushing yards over expectation per carry allowed to backs they're top six in The points per carry in rushing success rate allowed to running backs according to number fires metric. So I don't really care too much about just match up for running backs But I don't know if this is like a nick chubb run all over him kind of game. Yeah, so I might be out on chub Problem that is who do I really bring it back with and is it just Uh people's jones tied to all of our tua stacks, which is scary Yeah, it is uh for sure. So and it's hard to play tua Tyreek and like nick chubb if you want to go that route like that's hard to make that's really tough For sure. It's also hard to get to a tyreek and say quality even if you have jeff wilson and dpj in there, so The tua salary discussion is pertinent and the tyreek salary discussion is pertinent for sure Uh, like I had the vikings defense and they're at 32 and even then it was pretty tough But I think that I would I still want to force my way into some tyreek hill because He can go for 50 fan dual points, which you can't say about hardly any receivers Yeah, that's that's what I was saying before about like we have fewer guys who can really burn us. We still have guys who can burn us um I love I know like positional scarcity and everything but yeah tyreek at 9 000 versus kelsey at 85 like I want kelsey, but I'm I think I'm tired. Yeah It's kind of the same expression we always had when they were in can't city together was that like kelsey has better value relative disposition, but tyreek has better odds of 40 putting a stake through your heart for not using him kelsey could do that, but the odds are like are lower, so I'd rather not have a stake through my heart. So I'll probably use tyreek this week when I can the larger spread Is is in canza city for the jags and the cheese, but the total is high It's 50 and a half the chiefs are 9 and a half point favorites, which means the jags implied total is still above 20 So that's that's good for sure I'm typically wary of large spreads because the game could get out of hand and one team can take their foot off the gas And our team may quit because who cares we're down by 20 who cares But I think the jags are feisty enough to keep this one at least somewhat close close So Am I getting too high in the jags and they're my faith in them in this game or what's your read on this one? Am I too high on the jags part nine? Uh, we've been wrong asking this question basically every week um, I mean Like jackson fells not out of it at three and six canza city six and two like they they need wins that uh, you know They they could be a lot better. I I I understand the the large spread being a detractor, but Kansas is not going to run the ball anyway Even if they're out big It's great. Um More teams should have bad rushing offenses Yeah, and Like if there's a team That I would actually be okay with playing from behind The jags are one of them because they have some pass catchers who are fun Yeah, uh, specifically with christian kirk, but they also have one of the best Running backs out of the backfield in football with travis etn um, I'm not gonna list etn is a love for me, but he is Very very very he's lovish likely to be in my head to headline it because it that sounds 8000 is A lot more doable than like a sake one or Derek Henry this week. So I'm good with it. We just have to figure out like how much kelsey we're gonna have Do we fully trust uh, juju smith shuster and are we rolling the dice on any other chiefs other than uh, those two in the homes? Yeah, I will probably depending on health I might go to michael hartman just because he's been getting more involved recently If he gets in a full practice by friday Yeah, I know I'd make that caveat a lot, but I feel like I need to hear especially. No, I mean it's hard it's hard to like We don't even have the thursday reports out. Um when we do the show, so Uh, but in the past four games hartman has i'm not going to tell you his overall target share because i'm shamed But i'm ashamed that I have this but his uh d target share is 28 percent his red zone target share 23 percent Does not include his red zone rushes. I will note because he gets those uh because uh My guy, um, how many touchdowns it's a 13 percent overall target share just thought I will say that but juju in that time 19 percent target share 29 the red zone but just an eight percent deep target share The good thing is that he's not getting like two yard targets he's getting like a 10 yard target or an eight yard target and he's like Been pretty good in those his past three yardage totals 113 124 and 88 so A lot of that's because they've been throwing a lot but again they can't run right now so I have a lineup in front of me that has ma homes with juju Bringing it back with zay jones and sey qualm barkley And it's not bad like I think I might just try to go like hard hard hard at this game given my concerns around bears lions given the salaries for dolphins browns. I might just go Bananas here and see how that works. I think we can make that work given the salaries each we've got on these guys Yeah, I think this is the game that's probably easiest to stack up But also the most Impactful to stack up because we have ma homes like I could see myself playing Just ma homes this week at quarterback I think it's a fair consideration And it's not to say like I don't like fields um, it's just that I don't really love to play quarterbacks without stacks and as much as I Like fields is very good with the ball in his hands when he when he's running um, but you know, miami was entering last week not particularly good at stopping quarterback rushes um, he scored on the ground three straight games like even and even with that in the past two before his eruption He was at 24 and 26 points like again, it's not fair to do this, but If you didn't score those touchdowns we're talking like 18 and 20 fandal points like that's The the fear is it feels more than it should because of what he did last week and because he's scoring um Like a good bottle for what you're talking about is that washington game He ran 12 times for 88 yards there But 191 through the air and no rushing touchdowns. He had 19.4 fandal points. That's a good game But like it's not gonna like It's still only 19.4 fandal points You need more through the air if you're not going to score rushing touchdowns and like his rushing touchdown odds this being a fandal sportsbook are not minus 300 so Yeah, so like it Again, if you told me my my quarterback is going to be 88 rushing yards. I'd be like Yeah, all in. Yeah, but he also might get 88 passing yards Right So I think that's that's why mehomes I is it fair to say that mehomes in a tier zone this week. Is that fair or is that too low of fields? No, that's okay a $200 gap between the two is Kind of egregious for me like I think that they're Like I could see fields at like 81 in mehomes at 87. Sure Um, I think the home is under salary. I think is what we're saying, right Yeah, he's under salaried fields is at the very high end of where he should be. I think so Um, with that being the case to get to my point Um, after all that it was like I want a lot of Patrick mehomes. We have value for the jaguars. We have Some ways to save a little bit. Uh, if we don't play like michael hardman I would say even juju is like kind of qualifies as like someone I don't have to change like blow up everything to roster him to stack So like I think that this is where I'm going to be the most and we're on the same page there um, we did get a question over on The fan dual youtube page from deacon to the legend asking about favorite single entry stacks this week for me It's going to be this game. Um I so I want to say that uh, so I want to say like if you were building a single entry team I want to ask you what you would do. I'll say mine first I think single entry would be in this game. It'd be mehomes at quarterback I think I'm leaning juju as the stacking partner right now I'm talking myself more into his yardage upside based on what he's done. I think at some point I could should just stop doubting it Um, so juju 7 000. I think I would go with and then I'd probably run it back with zay jones in order to Put seguan barkley in my single entry lineup or Derek Henry if you prefer him, which I don't feel like I prefer seguan by a bit um A lineup of mehomes juju and zay jones Can get you quite a bit elsewhere and you can feel pretty good about it So I feel like that's the way I would go now if I'm building. I'm like, yeah, I actually don't want to go In the mid 6000 range for my third receiver I'd rather have a value one off and go with christian kirk if I can make that work Which I can as well. I do that so ideally deacon to the legend. I'm trying to get mehomes juju kirk as my Single entry stack, but if I have to go to jones in order to jam in seguan. I am okay with that So that's that's where I'd be leaning. What are you looking at for a single entry? lineup in this game In this game. Yeah In this game I'd go. I think mehomes um I might go mehomes kelsey For the positional difference there in a single entry because if if you're banking on mehomes, you're probably expecting kelsey to have a good game And then I I think they were both just high on ze jones. He opens up a good amount doesn't really Hurt you too much for playing kelsey there Alternatively, I think mehomes juju etn is fun. Yeah, but I think uh mehomes kelsey ze is what I would uh Go to in a single entry because Of what kelsey can do in a single entry. I would also say, um, this is a good week to have Like enter a lot of single entry contests and just change what you're doing in each of them because like you can do that That's legal. Um, I thought I thought the question was gonna be like might just my favorite overall one. Yeah, yeah That might be To a tyreek and dpj. Oh, okay. Cool. That's fair Uh, I don't without because I thought dax cd lazar, but that's too that's a bit too silly um For a single entry. I think that's more of a multi entry one because like I love that weird single single entry though. It's Yeah, I don't think that's getting dumb, honestly I don't we say be different without being dumb. I don't think that's dumb I like that one cd salaries down the only thing holding back dak right now and I'll talk about this more in the player picks section is um The volume like his efficiency has been great. They just have an opposing pace for this game specifically opposing pace hurts him So like there's volume concerns again But if if they run a lot of plays like That could be the guy who really opens things up for us Uh, if harbing it's a full practice, will you use him? Yeah Okay, I will too um, but I will say if you're going mahomes kelsey You probably can't get sake one in there Even if you go like a receiver in the flex, it's tough like I have right now. I have uh mahomes kelsey I put zay jones in there for the savings sake one and jeff wilson you've got two receivers in a flex left for $6,100 You're leaning a lot on value plays. So I think you're either picking Kelsey or sake one and I would lean sake one personally between the two if I have a single entry lineup That's fair But I get it too. Kelsey is very very good. So I can't really push back on that Okay, let's dig into our trend discussion here for week number 10 You're going to talk about the broncos offense their team total. I don't think it's up at fangirl sportsbook when it is I'm guessing at least 17 and a half um Which I will take the over just for the record, uh, but It's low and I think that's noteworthy But I also think the titans defense is a little bit overrated right now So what do you see with the broncos offense coming off their buy? Yeah, so denver's had a week to get right with the buy a lot of time for some high knees Just all over the place, but some subway sandwiches Yeah, I think the type response of the show and let us use your products. I'm the only person who will beg for this Please let me. Yeah I'll I'm gonna skip past that one um, I think I think the titans are a bit overrated defensively because of what they did to the chiefs um this week and It's really hard to be high on denver's offense But tennessee's 13th and adjusted past defense ninth and adjusted rush defense by number fires metrics the third and pressure rate by next gen stats and That's not good for russa wilson who's had a lot of sacks, but Did start to run a bit more in recent weeks. So that's gonna lead to a higher sack rate um But on a per play basis he is point zero eight points worse than opponent expectation the passing success rate is sub 40 percent. You don't you don't want to see that um I Would need Hundreds of lineups to play russell wilson this week The running backs are crossoffs Melvin gordon's like the starter in name, but the tavis murray's mixing in chase admins now is going to see the some passing game work Um, gordon has played on 54 the snaps the past few games, but 51 yards per game to show for it Can't do that. So it sounds like okay. I don't like ross. I don't like the running backs. What am I doing here? But The receivers and tight end much more fun in two games with russa wilson and greg dolcich playing Uh, jerry judy leads for the 20 target share. He's had seven per game in that two games sample Sutton's third at 14 3 and a half per game. I don't think that'll stick Um, and then dolcich is at 16 with four targets per game. So like the volume has not been great Uh, but the titan's actually really bad against the receivers. Uh, if you adjust for who they've actually faced Which is fun. They're they're last in my adjusted fandal points per target model I think that that's not accounted for And judy and Sutton have very low salaries in the low 6000 range But for dolcich specifically since week six, he's 14th among titans and target share at 18 percent And in targets per game. He's third in air yards. He's eighth in yards per game Played one of those games with uh without russa wilson. So I can justify jerry judy. I can justify quarlin sutton and greg dolcich I don't have to love russa wilson to like those guys because it's not a i'm not betting that all three of them have great games But one of them definitely can um, so i'm drawn in Is that dumb? How are you viewing uh, the the broncos offense this week? So I agree with you. No ross. However, I will point out. Um Um Titans are really good against the rush and I think they're really bad against the pass So you might see some more passing game volume. Daniel Hackett has been urging russ to rush this week in press conferences Maybe a little angry russ narrative with the the the wristband gate uh with p carol. So I'm not gonna do it I'm not gonna do it. I'm not gonna do it. I'm not gonna do it I think with the receivers, I agree the I think that actually they are fun We talk a lot about how we don't want to use receivers in games with low totals What if you if you pull up russa wilson's player card? That face he's making that's the face you'll probably be making Uh at halftime of this game if you if you roster him And he looks angry. He's not happy. Is he trying to look like tough? Probably I need to I need to like watch the subway commercials to remind myself why I don't want to use this Okay, who do you prefer between judy and sudden because I think I I think that based on the I had the same numbers that you have the two games at balsich But it it feels a little bit point chasey to go judy given that sudden was good earlier on this year. So Sutton salary 62 judy is 64 I think I might just split it down the middle and that feels like the coward's way out But I also think it might be correct because I think they both have very similar range of outcomes Yeah, this is probably um probably like a very light version of Although ironically, or I guess it's just a coincidence. It's not necessarily ironic, but isn't it ironic? um This is like a decay met caft how to lock it light situation where like you just kind of I know Um, I'd probably build a lineup with judy and then just duplicate it in place sudden. Okay. I'd be okay with that Okay, I think that's fair. Uh, how does dulcet great out for you? Relative to let's not talk helsey. Let's assume we're spending down How does he great out for you relative to pat fryer muth dalton schultz And dalton schultz Yeah, that's basically basically those three guys unless we get like The indication that in joku is a complete full go. Um He's probably behind Schultz due to passing volume of the respective teams But it's close Dulces does get downfield work, which is very fun. So I like rates out better in air yards per game than just like target share stuff like that, but I don't think I could play him in a In a cash game lineup though. No, I would consider dalton schultz there I probably love dalton schultz there if I to be honest. Um, I think the reason I like both of them a lot is because yardage upside It's really taught to find that a tight end like haybees not getting that or earth is not getting that hawkinson could. Um, but You're not getting that for most guys. We don't think that schultz and dulcet have that I'd put them both above fryer muth. I think that he Also has some yardage upside, which is good for him. Um clay pool being gone I didn't mean like good for you, bud I feel like it's actually good for him first DFS I like that juice that dulcet and schultz spring I would favor schultz because four hundred dollars can go a very long way this week the savings that you get with schultz over dulcet, but I'm going to use both. I don't feel good about both personally and I think if I had to choose Um, a past catcher on this team, I'd probably pick dulcet over the receivers, but I would not be opposed to any of them personally Uh, yeah, like I said, I mean I I'm open very open to receiver in the flex Um, if I'm like staring at 6,500 or let's say 6,400 and I love a lineup I can't play jeff wilson like I'd consider just plugging in uh, judy and sutton. Yeah Are they your favorite guys below uh, lasard this week? at 67 um Yes, I think they are for me too Man We're right back on the stupid Broncos feel stupid Anyway, let's talk about the bill's defense because regardless of josh alan situation I think we'll have at least some interest in the vikings offense here because of salaries So I want to dig into the bill's defense and see how viable the plan it was to go without this week And it's not as outrageous as I initially thought the bill's defense is very good They ranked second behind just the cowboys in my blended model, which does include a prior so Um, that is uh, that is in there In my 2022 only model their fifth so solid in both these But it's also a big drop from where they were a couple weeks ago because they were first with a bullet earlier on this year in my 2022 only model Most of their overperformance compared to expectations came in the first two weeks of the year when they blanked the rams Blank the titans Since then we've seen teams like the dolphins be okay against them on a per play basis The chiefs were okay the jets were fine The jets game last week was the biggest underperformance of the year relative to expectations the bills have had They've underperformed on early downs against the rush just twice all year But those have been the past two games against the packers and the jets matt molano did miss the jets game He's day today. He practiced last week friday. He practiced on wednesday I'm expecting him to play but molano played every snap 100 of the snaps against the packers And they still got kind of wrecked on the ground So for whatever reason teams started to move the ball better against them overall and on the ground of late So I do think that makes dalvin cook a very worthy play at $7,500. So it's a tough match up But his workload has been good. He has uh 32 and 29 to just opportunities the past Two games since their buy week his red zone share has been 42 or higher in three straight games snap rate has been at least 75 in three straight games So I'm on dalvin I think justin jefferson is is viable if you've got the salary garret wilson eight against the bills last week Tyree kill didn't but the dolphins ran 12 plays in that game and jill and waddle still got to 100 The bills solid against tight ends. So i'm not as high on tj hawkinson, but I don't think it's outrageous But having dalvin be justified about 75 to me is very enticing jefferson, I realistically probably won't get to just because I don't like this game as much and Salary side, but I think he's in play if you like him. I think he's in play I just probably won't get there personally Are you willing to use let's say dalvin cook specifically against a very impressive defense? Oh, yeah, I mean a ton of dalf. Okay. I think he's the best running back play at salary. Cool um of the week I actually was looking up some notes and um I noticed that buffalo They had been the best defense rush defense in terms of rushing yards over expectation allowed per carry to running backs entering week six or through week six they were a minus 1.17 Which is like absurd and I was like, okay. Well How bad it like are they still the best or they like You know third now. Um, but if you factor in those two games, uh, and just look at the past two games They're relying 1.1 1.41 over expectation per carry. Um They let up 76 yards on the ground to michael carter That was good. Um, erin jones Probably a somewhat fair like corollary to dalvin cook. So I'm in on dalv. I'm not that worried about the match up and I guess like we don't really think about like we don't think this way But if They so choose If they get a bit of a lead they can lean on dalv a little bit more Yeah, um, so he does have six targets the past two games as well Uh, each the past few games which means that even if they do fall behind like he can still be in play Which is good. Yeah um, I'm looking at um some projection machines and Projected roster rate for dalvin cook is 15 percent. That's higher than I would have thought I guess Um, I think the whole landscape of running back is tough. There's not there's not one or two like super obvious low 6000 plays to to eat up a lot of uh popularity. So yeah, um But I'm in a dalv. Uh, what about jefferson and hawkinson for you I mean love love jefferson, uh, if If i'm not mistaken he he just like Went nuts in the first quarter last week and then Kind of tapered off. Um Could have been a lot better every game for him, but he's always someone that I Feel bad about not having more exposure to I'm more likely to have hawkinson though Just because of the way the lineups work this week Uh, there's really no way for his role to get worse In his second week with the team. It was it was really good and we can't get much better Like yes, like sorry, it can't get much better, but it's also We can assume that's his baseline going forward because you get in this first game It's not going to get worse like he's not going to come on and play 50% of snaps now. So it'd be pretty wild. Um I'm not saying that he can match kelsey's best outing But at $2,500 in terms of salary discrepancy if kelsey goes for like 25 and hawkinson gets like Yeah, 17 That's livable for that amount of salary. So I think hawkinson probably My favorite tight end play. Okay Love the week. All right. I like that. I think that's totally fair. They are good against tight ends But I think that your logic is sound Let's move now to your second trend. Talk about the giants facing off of the texans. The spread is tightened Don't know why but it has uh, so what do you see with the giant's offense? Specifically when they're facing bad bad bad bad bad defenses Yeah, so one team that we're we're going to pay more attention to than we would normally Is the giants because they face the texans who were ranked 29th in overall defense with opponent adjustments according to number fires metrics 26 against the past 31st against the rush now We know that daniel jones is not a flawless player But I often I won't speak for you. I often find him fun and a little bit intriguing for fantasy football Sometimes what he's more intriguing for real football because he does does chaotic stuff I don't care about that. I will I like chaos. Um it For a quarterback you're either like one of the most exciting things you can do on a football field fumble is up there He fumbles a lot. It's great. That's boring sacks sacks are exciting sacks are exciting fumbles are exciting I like watching defense players get jacked up He he doubles us out like candy on halloween and then he can also do the occasional fun thing like trip in the open field So like he's not great, but he's fun. He's he's a chaos agent. It's great. He did that a couple of weeks ago Um, he does all the time Yeah, it's a weird dude. I love it um Okay, I like daniel jones sometimes for fantasy football because he has rushing ability Uh, I don't care to watch guys just take sacks. I think that's boring. I want sacks are fun Come on. It's like a strike out strikeouts are fun. Oh, yeah I love guys just swinging a bat and not hitting anything and then sitting down imagine watching max scherzer stare down a dude And that thing in the whole time and then storm around the mountain thinking. Yeah, it's boring Get out of here. I'm meeting myself for real this time Just just come back and don't make me do this show by myself For for 30 seconds. Uh daniel jones has a 100 uh 100 yard game on the ground already this year Um, he's averaging 45.4 rushing yards on eight carries per game Uh, he has a very high sack rate over 10 but in three games against past the offenses ranked 25th or worse According to number fire's metrics. He's averaged 21.2 fandal points However, he's done that by averaging 65 rushing yards and a touchdown per game As far as the passing goes. He has not really taken full advantage of the matchups Just under 150 yards per game 0.7 touchdowns per game His passing that expected points per drop back 0.04 League average against all teams is 0.06. So if you account for expectation, he's about 0.05 worse than expectation You don't love to see that for max potential. Um, of course, there's only so many pieces that we can be interested in anyway Uh, we we love saquan don't really need to talk about him in detail We'll talk about him in more detail later on but the pass catchers kind of intriguing Uh, no strolling shepherd kudarius. Tony now shipped off to the chiefs to to toil away forever Now Tony's gonna be great in Kansas City, but Uh, so we have Darius slayton. We have one day Robinson both sub 6000 This week we need value and where we can get it The best sample here probably week seven and eight without Tony and shepherd In that two game split slayton has a 20 target share, which is a team high 62 yards per game Wanda was at 18 of the targets just 33 yards per game We've seen as you should be phenomenal and then kind of scale off To clarify he basically had every target available in the first quarter Of that opening game and then it's been kind of dusty since then He did get hurt and then things like tapered off. So maybe he's back to full health here But um, Marcus Johnson runs routes has a 15 target share He's the size 4,800. I know we're not like this kind of No, okay Tanner Hudson 4,500 as well. He has a 10 target share If you're fully if you're fully punting So I would note on Hudson that one of those games was with daniel bellinger first game without bellinger Hudson snap Right was about 73 percent. They did get down pretty fast against I think that was the seahawks before they're by Tanner Hudson like crazy isn't god deity. Um Five targets in that game for 58 yards. Oh, baby Hey 558 a tight end is like Kelsey light, um at 4500. Yeah I'm not I'm not out on Hudson I don't think we should dismiss him Okay, are you out on? I'm not on johnson. I refuse to use johnson. No way Are you out on slayton? Are you out on on wandale? So I have to ask you about slayton because I have a blind spot for him I have him on a lot of dynasi leagues still for some reason. I think I forgot to drop him before the year started Um What is your I forget to drop chris call me What is your read on slayton because I think that like if I look at this with my broken brain Towards slayton. I think he's in play, but I also need like a check on that knowing my biases Um, so over the past two games 14.1 yard a dot three and a half downfields targets per game Which for me is 10 10 plus yards downfield if you can bear compare him straight up to a wandale uh somewhat similar target shares, but The much better juice belongs to uh slayton um I would rather play slayton than wandale. So I think I'm probably gonna have a decent amount of slayton by which I mean about 25 percent I have I I have like a pretty small player pool. So like that's probably higher than most people would want to get but um, I'd probably go under that but um, because there are more there are no value guys. I like, um, really Yeah, I mean I like zay jones, um Michael gallop is down there. I think he's fine. Um Rondale of kyler plays would be at least someone treating dpj's down there. So I can I can make some match down there He's gonna be slaying over uh rondo All right, I think for a second. Did you mean wandale? But no, you meant rondo because I said rondo. Okay. Um Hudson at 45. I think I'll have a non zero number of lineups I don't hate it. Yeah Uh, I should probably check his like rap participation. Give us our participation with you for a week. Uh, specifically week eight specifically tanner hudson Uh, 72 snap rate 75 route rate Huh nice 5.7 yard a dot What was a dot? 5.7 Um Yeah, I think I'll have some hudson if you're betting against kelsey You can do worse question for you What is the difference between justin fields and daniel jones? This week when they're both facing really bad teams and they both run Like fields runs a bit more But dimes throws a bit more I'm not using this as a way to talk myself into jones. I'm using this way to maybe lower myself a tiny bit on fields I mean fields yeah It's like he'll doesn't had his rushing more recently than jones So it's kind of like I think it might be a tiny bit of recency bias that pushes us so high on him Yeah, that's what i'm saying. That's why I think I like fields, but I think he's over salaried a bit Okay, I think jones is also a little bit over salaried at 75. Yeah, but I If not for dak, I think jones would have been my What qb4? Okay fair, uh over Tua Her over fields I'm saying if I didn't have dak I'd be my home. I'm sorry fielding to uh, I can't count Don't expect me to count. You're making me do math. Um, okay one last question Will you get to sake one in single entry? Again, it's I think it's a sake one versus kelsey question basically I think it might be sake one versus henry question Okay, so one of those guys versus kelsey and who do you prefer between sake one and henry because I prefer sake one by a decent margin By a hair Sake one, but I think henry is the better like tournament play. I guess I'm assuming someone It depends on who wants it being projected to be less popular if there's a massive gap I could see pivoting to henry, but I'm assuming barkley's more popular against the Probably against houston Okay, let's finish up here with my second trend talking about the pat the uh the cowboys and I'm talking about them Down here as opposed to elsewhere because like the packers stink and they had the potentials They totally mushed this game because they Drain the clock all the way down to one snap it because they're checked out So they did this last year too, I guess but still like they can be annoying but And that can lower us on the cowboys, but I think they're still worth checking out That's because they played really well since dak came back They played two games uh since the return in those they've exceeded expectations and are on early downs Through the air by point two one and point eight respectively And those were against bad defenses So exceeding expectations against them is tough, but they cooked even accounting for the bad matchups They also had an 80 late down success rate against the bears Um, that was 29 percentage points above expectation. That's stupid Overall, even when you include week one when dak got wrecked He ranks ninth and passing that expected points per drop back out of 39 guys with at least 75 drop backs They've also been pretty pass heavy They're early down first half pass rate is 60 which is pretty good. Uh, they've just been ahead In games i haven't had to throw later on So I feel like we should be on the passing game here In those two games cd land leads with a 26 target share. He has five out of nine deep targets I kind of poo pooed him when you asked about it on a monday, but that was a mistake I keep walking back all this stuff, but whatever. I you got a shooting hip. I know a thing or two Uh, $7,600 not a bad salary for his workload. I think my favorite play hero be dalton schultz He is $5,500 24 target share in those two games. He's gotten his knee rested back up, which is a good thing too michael gallup is a consideration as a value, but Got to keep a lid on the exposure. Uh, he'll be a rotational piece in the value plays He hasn't been a big target guy overall this year His six-tar game week eight came with Noah brown out and brown should be back this week So i'm on schultz and lamb kind of in on gallup I'm probably not getting to dak though. So what's your read on this offense? I like it. I think dak works if you're trying to build different lineups Um, I think a lot of lineups will be centered on mohomes fields and toa, uh this week So it's naturally a bit different to play someone, uh, such as dak I mean quarterback numbers are always usually dispersed, but I could see all three of those guys having double digit, uh numbers and so cumulatively you're looking at like 30 to 40 percent of the lineups having, uh Quarterback above 8,000 it's naturally a lot easier um to differentiate if you Are playing dak at 74 again dak's been super efficient as you laid out The only question has been the volume He's at I think 27 and a half drop backs per game Um and the two games since he's returned that is still a potential threat for this week I know that But he also has the ability to Dominate salary if the volume is there, uh if the efficiency stays up So the fact that it's maybe less of a good matchup might actually help in a sense because he's very good Um, we're both dak believers on this podcast. So I like him a good bit. Um Very high on schultz relative to just as high as I can be on a tight end, uh 55 But yeah, I love cd lamb. Uh, he's another guy who just has the ability I think to Replicate what the guys in like the 8,000 range do on his high end He's not as likely to get there But he has that ability and so you can maybe get like 130 and a touchdown from lamb Yeah, uh at 76 which I like amari cooper just fine, but I'm not quite there with cooper at 70 78 chrystal Lave at least has a question mark with Jarvis lander's return, but I'd rather have lamb Than a lava. Yeah, and there's really nobody else in that range like just yeah, not even like we don't like guys They're just nobody there So I think that lamb's not really going to fit a lot of lineup constructions So he's probably actually going to be a little bit, uh lower roster than he should be so I like cd a lot this week I think I'm warming to a dak lineup. Um, I initially thought I'd be a three But I'm a little bit lower on fields now than I was when we started I'm a little bit higher on dak, so I think I'll probably get to a fourth one and just have like limited fields, um I think that's where I'll wind up Dak is that guy's bus potential, but so does fields So there's everyone again. It's effortless. Yeah Right, but like you laid out the The 88 yard brushing game for fields. It wasn't flawless, you know, if he's not scoring a touchdown He just doesn't throw enough like yeah It is the lines. It's helps a lot, but so yeah, it definitely goes so far. Yeah, it does but um, okay Yeah, I think I'm getting higher and higher on deck. We should probably talk about Pollard and Zeke uh Zeke Do not practice on Wednesday Seems like he'll play Jerry Jones said he would and Jerry Jones sends to be Weirdly truthful when he talks about these things So this means Zeke will play but the fact he didn't practice on Wednesday I think opens the door for his not playing if we get no Zeke Do we just go in all in and Pollard once again 100% Pollard? Okay, or as as high as you're willing to go, but yeah, if they both play probably I could see myself with like Very minimal Pollard Yeah I could see myself just not getting there, but I think it'd be I'd be open to it. I just don't know it depend on Where I wind up overall, but I'm really warming to the cowboys I do think that they're you know a little slow to get there, but The sour savings do matter quite a bit. So I do like that. Okay Weather for this weekend We got wind speeds at 11 miles per hour in Pittsburgh for the sewers and saints If that continues to like stay above 10, it would lower me on a lava a tiny bit It wouldn't affect me on Camara too much, but it would lower me on the lava at least a tiny bit there Maybe on Pickens we haven't talked about him yet, I guess but Would lower me a tiny bit there too, but Just worth mentioning and then in Buffalo for the Bills and Vikings 13 mile per hour winds We weren't super out of the passing games there anyway, but just worth noting on that one. Okay Let's now go position by position and break down our favorite plays on fan dual for this week Brandon at quarterback Where are you going first? Patrick Mahomes? Uh, there's really no conversation for me. He is the qb1 now with josh Allen Far from 100% good matchup against the 25th ranked adjusted past defense based on number fires metrics Not too worried about the wind here Mahomes has faced just two teams worse than 16th and adjusted past defense this year in those two games He's averaged 277 yards and two and a half touchdowns with the passing that expected points per drop back of 0.27 He is firmly taken advantage of said matchups My second love is Dak Prescott. I am that high on him where he's my qb4 Inter like out like straight up But I'm probably likely to be your qb2 or 3 than to be your qb5 at the end of things. Yes Um, I might just play, you know, Mahomes fields toa and dak Um, I think that again if it's just the volume concerns like I love toa. He's not completely flawless um Mahomes is the the one guy I would say who pretty much is but You know, even if you factor in the the fact like the packers can Screw things up a bit the salaries low enough that dak can still be good Um, he has faced the two two bottom five adjusted past defenses since his return He's just flamethrowered him Even with like the the limited volume about 230 yards per game one and a half touchdowns per game got a bi-week to get healthier They might just let him like even if it even if it's like a bit messy They might just lean on him more uh because he's healthier One other thing I'd say is we talked about this like six years ago But there was a time where the cowboys would run dak quite a bit in the red zone and There's been a little bit of that. Um, he has three red zone rush attempts to pass two games including Two his most recent game that was from the seven yard line. He scored one of them was so He's not going to get rushing yardage, but his rushing touchdown odds. I think are Better than they've been recently because using him kind of that way again. So it's all my homesy Yeah, I'm warming up when you have to or something warming up more than I was Which I'll need to because it's going to be very cold in green bay on sunday. Um, but I'm Higher than I was My first love is also my homes. Um, he's playing like sicko tier football right now I know that the titans game was not great, but uh jackson bill ranked 26 against pass based on my numbers They're bad against the rush too. Uh, I don't think They're gonna try to run the ball a ton here. I think they'll just let my homes cook The jags can keep it close enough for my homes to get volume So I think that he is kind of the no brainer top guy and I would put in the tier of his own this week My number two love is to a tongue of aloe the browns defense is not one. I fear too much. Um There aren't a lot of rushing quarterbacks on this slate and we know that toa has upside $8100 not bad for what he does. Um, and if you look at my Number is projected offensive efficiency the dolphins ranked second on the main slate behind just the chiefs So I'll just go to the top two guys and go, um, homes in toa And I'll probably wind up with toa number two above fields this week I don't know I I don't want to talk myself out of fields against the lions, but right I'm getting higher on dak lower on field as we go along and I think that continues. Okay running back. What you got there? I should just say travis etn because he's very likely to be in a lot of my lineups But I'm gonna say derrick henry because he has the chance to bust this slate open Um, and if I'm open to dak I can play henry I like sick one, too But henry's the guy I think that will be less popular than sick one because of the perceived matchup Um in three games against below average rush defenses, uh, henry's average 23 carries 0.7 targets, but 142 screaming yards per game for over, uh, 22 fandal points per game Not a whole lot of chance of a complete runaway, uh To script out derrick henry because the broncos are gonna win and cast that money want to take it from me, right? Yeah, but denver's basically played every game within like five points. Uh, so i'm not that concerned I think it's shaping up kind of like a classic heat check slate where we have like two to three running backs who Have super high upside and can burn us and I want to make sure that i'm not Falling into the the 2022 trap not not not trap, but it's been it's been the right approach. Yeah Like we've had value. We haven't had flawless stud running backs. I think we have two with sick one and and henry Um, I'd say sick one has fewer flaws, but henry the more fun tournament play Uh for this week my second love is davin cook. He's the only write down that we had on monday's show We write these things down so that we don't forget them Sometimes we can change our opinion there, but I don't i'm not going to do that this week 88 77 and 86 snap rate the past three games 25 uh 0.3 adjusted opportunities per game Which is carries plus double your targets 93 yards per game 73 percent of red zone carries 45 percent of the overall red zone opportunities in that split Get a creative end zone target, which he caught last week Thank you And my third love is jeff wilson. Uh, if i'm spending down at running back wilson is the only guy I can really identify that I like Uh, there is a little bit of a risk if the workload scales back, but probably not going to scale back too much I'm facing the 29th ranked adjusted rush defense and football Uh nine carries three targets with a majority snap rate of 51 percent a good red zone role Again, I probably should just add etn uh here, but because I I think he might be my Second favorite running back behind alf, but is he your favorite guy in the 8 000 range then etn salary, yes Okay, uh, where are you at in chimera and josh jacob's? That's the entire 8 000 range Yeah, uh bit lower on jacob's don't like that game feel like it's going to be very ugly and bad Yeah chimera's game also has that potential yeah, um And I love chimera. He's he's great, but Still the red zone concerns for me Or at least touchdown conversion concerns for me and so I think I'd go etn in that game I might go chimera over etn, but considering it's salary. I guess I should probably go etn the 600 does go a long way So Probably with you on etn first Um, my first love is say qualm barkley I just I think I need to jam him in even if that means I sacrifice stuff at receiver and tight end He's at 121 yards per game this year from scrimmage. Uh 39 red zone share the texans are hideous. So I think he's so worth it this week and I want to get to say qualm As often as I can I'll put him above henry, but I will have henry in the mix as well Because like you said, he's worth it too. Number two for me is dalv. Um, it is a super tough matchup, but it's not impossible It's a tighter game script here with josh allen being a question mark He's had good snap rates and good workloads not the production yet. So I could I could see like a joe mix and type game first for dalvin the mix and one was inspired by A positive script and a good matchup. This is not that but I think from a Ceiling perspective from a guy who hasn't shown it yet I think that dalv does have that and my third love is also jeff wilson He did out snap most of the last week I think his role could expand in a second game in a very good matchup the browns defense very bad against the run so We were talking about the running back in the flex. I think that's still very in play like yet I think that judy and and sutner like comparable to wilson and I would say uh christian kirk Amon russain brown better than wilson. So keep that in mind. Although I have jeff wilson here I'm not opposed to going receiver. I think that's a good call by you at the beginning of the show but wilson's where I'd want to go Uh, running back if I I'm looking to say some salary receiver. What do you have there? Two guys, you just mentioned amon russain brown is my number one here at 6900 not going to quit him at this salary He's kind of breaking the the floor ceiling sims that I run relative to the rest of the position Uh, 28th ranked adjusted past the offense last week without hawkinson 38 target share for 55 yards on those four catches Which I know production's all that matters but catch rate over expectation of minus 29 could have been a lot better Without the results there the salary remains low and that's basically 99 of what we do here is like look for where the production Is and isn't based on the underlying data. Although gm likes when I call out the actual touchdowns um a second love is christian kirk 6800 This feels like months ago because it has been months ago. I guess technically but Uh christian kirk had like one of the best workloads in football He still has a really great workload. He has a single game this year with a target share below 20 percent Um 20 second in yards per game, but a catch rate over expectation of minus 7 percent one of the worst marks among like Quote-unquote stud uh receivers could be doing a lot better. So again just one of those spots where the underlying data Is very promising uh for christian kirk and bogging down the results My third love this will depend on the wind a bit but george pickens 5600 Um Kind of might be like the lone constant in this pittsburgh offense, which is weird Nagi's not good. Uh, deontay's not particularly good. Chase claypool's gone. Uh patty afscol He's good for him. He's got the artichoke side, but uh chase claypool vacates an 18 percent target share Pickens in his full games with kenny picket just a 13 percent target share But three downfield targets per game one reds their target per game If they're talking about going away from nagi, they gotta Also kind of realize that maybe deontay's not the true number one here Uh, I think a post by rookie surge for george pickens Makes a lot of sense. I think pickens will be in the rotation for me among the value place I'm not opposed to that. Uh, my first love is also a modern osse brown He has had nine targets in every full game this year which I think is absurd for a guy With a 6900 salary. So I said before I kind of had she was like he's not a cash game priority But he's close to it. I think he is a cash game priority I don't tend to put receivers in early in the cash game bill, but he probably will be for me So I like a modern osse brown a lot this week. My number two is dunham and people's jones I'm typically out of this passing offense because they don't want to use their quarterback, which seems bad, but In gains within joku, he has a 19 target share with 28 of the deep work Um, he's had good yardage upside with 70 yards in three straight games He'd get a little bump if in joku is out as well So i'm not typically there, but I probably will be for this week With the browns my third love is zay jones because the jags gonna have to throw to keep up this week Jones has a 20 target share in the game. See has played with marv with a 24 red zone share He hasn't had the best yardage upside, but I think he could show it Also, I would say that marv is less dusty than I thought he was you mentioned marv at some point And I was like no, I'd rather get hit by a bus and I would no longer take the bus So That would be the third time that I've convinced you to change your opinion on the same show. Yeah, which is the third time ever Yeah That's weird Maybe I've become soft. I don't know I gotta become soft. I'm giving in to you. This is not great So I do think that that I'm probably not going to use marv this week But I don't think it's as outrageous as I thought it was initially 54 It's a hundred dollars eight and some zay and I prefer zay, but you know, it is what it is tight end. What you got there? tg hawkinson at 6,000 uh Almost nearly I almost wrote him down on monday, uh, but an elite role for just having joined a new team 90% snap rate 81% route rate caught all nine targets for 70 yards that catch rates obviously gonna come down with the role itself really good, um Like this team's Kind of a mix for like the number one seed and then if see if the eagles lose so I like Don't really anticipate them taking the foot off the the pedal at all So I like that my second love is darling Schultz He's probably going to be my main tight end just because even 500 goes a long way this week And I think things really drop off after Schultz. He's had a week to get healthier in games with dak He's got a 23 target share for seven per game I'll take that and a 24 target share the past two games with prescott Despite only a 57 route rate So there are reasons to believe that that route rate goes up with the week off and so 20 percent target share plus for a tight end in this offense. I'll take Yeah, I'm very likely to have Schultz is my cash game, uh tight end this week. I I honestly don't know what else I would do. I think he just makes a lot of sense Um, so Schultz is my second love of tight end as well. My first love is dulcich. I just think that The broncos are better than what the bookmakers are saying. They are this week offensively He's had a great role so far in game number two with wilson 87 yards in that game. A lot of downfield looks Um had some unrealized air yards as well in that game I think he's a good player. I think they think he's a good player. I think he helps his offense. What? What? Okay, I mentioned unrealized air yards. Sumi who cares? Gosh the worst um I think that he is a shot like he has yardage upside a tight end which is hard to find So although the salary is appropriate at 59. I'm still going to use him. Um Hawkinson's probably the better play At 6000 and dulcich at 59, but I like dulcich too Your favorite defense. What you got? Love me a good defense. Uh, the saints for the best value in my model um, kenny pickett minus 0.14 passing that expected points per dropback under expectation The wind is up and of course we want the smoke So I'm sorry about what Hey, man, if you have to ask I do have to ask what no, man Wind is up That's all I'll say We want the smoke. Yeah, it's a way of life Is this a reference to something? Yeah, the street profits wwe What are the street profits the street profits are up and we want the smoke p-r-o-f-i-t or p-r-o-p-a-g-t Again, man Okay, I'll answer so many questions. I'll talk about the other side of that game the Steelers Uh, it sounds like tj watt might be back Uh, this week potentially for the Steelers um I think he'll be able to go and if he is it's a pretty big Gotta get because Andy Dalton not opposed to a little de-gaffiness The Steelers defense hasn't played well with that watt, but they could revert back to that with him being back to come up and buy Good coach. I trust him quite a bit. So I would also use the Vikings if it is case kingdom this week They'd still be underdogs by probably Two and a half points or so if it is case kingdom three um, but I still think they'd be in play just because the bills can't run And it'd be a back of quarterback for a team that can't run the football For against a somewhat competent defense. So I think they'd be fine, but I would go Steelers I like the Saints too at 39 as well That is all that we have here for week number 10 But brandy we've talked through the entire slate anything else you want to mention Before we send off the good people to fill out their line-ups for this week No, I think we touched on all the games. Um We didn't really just dismiss any games that didn't deserve to be dismissed A lot of a lot of ways to go this week though Uh, you know, we're highest on Jacksonville, Kansas City, but like Cleveland Miami could be the game of the week too. So It's fun. You're not Yeah, you're not forced into one line Listen to your heart. I don't know either. I know it's actually a song Anyway, listen to your heart and if you uh, if you like the dolphins browns go there But I think that we've got some viable stacks this week We've got some potentially uncertain situations and I think that that could be a good thing for us So I feel better having talked through and I feel like we got a good read on this slate A reminder once again to make sure you're subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast We can also check out the fan dual youtube page. It's not just the heat check there We've also got covering the spread goes up on the fandal youtube page every day when we record that The k-adams show up and adams goes up there Run it back is on the fandal youtube page too. So a lot of good stuff over on the fandal youtube page Hit subscribe there and also subscribe to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever You get your podcast brandon if people have questions for you on twitter Where can they find you there? I'm on twitter at gudula 13 gd ula 13 and I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s and n e s you can also follow the fandal podcast network at fandal podcast big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your dfs lens for a single game thursday We'll talk to you once again monday to wrap it all up. This has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire