 Hello and welcome to this week's Appliant the Mard Forex Technical Analysis. My name is Liam Rowe, Commentsy Trader and Trading Coach at Trading 180. If you're new, welcome and if you're returning, welcome back. I'm glad you're finding my weekly analysis useful and thank you for your comments and I will endeavour to get back to you all at some point. Also, if you want to go to your favourite currency pairs, it is timestamped in the description box below as well as some other goodies and content. So, from a fundamental analysis perspective this week, as we always start off on the fundamentals, we have the second quarter or second estimate of the US first quarter GDP growth and that's going to be important for Donald Trump especially alongside his trade war with China at the moment from a sentiment perspective. If he's doing better then the Chinese then he has a bit more leverage when it comes to negotiation and alongside personal income outlays and PCE price index which is the federal reserves, I guess preferred measure of inflation, UK consumer morale monetary indicators and Eurozone business survey, Germany consumer sentiment, Germany is the driver of really the Europe economy so if Germany starts doing slowing down then Europe as a whole will start to slow down so retail trading and inflation is important. China, NBS, PMIs, Japan consumer confidence industrial output as well as India, what Canada is the main one GDP growth rate. I think there's some other stuff as well going on this week on Forex Factory that is quite important for Canada. I think there's a few speeches going on as well right so yeah Canada GDP on Friday right so so yeah that's pretty much what to look out for this week also from a sentiment perspective in Europe anyway we have the European elections the results are going to be out I think today Sunday or into the Monday hours and if you're not up to speed with the European elections it doesn't come around too often and there are quite a few anti-Europe parties that are making headway in the European elections which isn't good for the European elite potentially a lot of disruption and disruption to the status quo when it comes to you know Europe policies and moving from Europe moving forward which could all affect you know Europe and the euro currency of course we could you know see all that but then not even get a reaction from the market but you know we just we just plan ahead and manage our risk also as well specifically to the UK. Theresa May if you don't know is the head of the Tory party has you know announced her resignation and did a terrible job on trying to negotiate Brexit so the UK is in a bit of a lot of uncertainty I say a bit but a lot of uncertainty at the moment choosing a new leader so sentiment wise the pound isn't necessarily fantastic even though it is probably one of the best from a fundamental perspective and if you want to learn about fundamentals link in the description box below there is fundamental analysis course all three and it was basically how to show you how the how to trade fundamentals and how to apply it to work to your to your trading and why really you should and how to determine value as well as risk on a risk of sentiment so with that being said let's go on to the technicals and we start off on the Dow Jones dollar index and Dow Jones dollar index from last week we come up into this this higher supply zone right here and ended up I think selling off yep as you came up into an expensive area and this was from zoom out a little bit this is from a supply zone from way back in 2017 right here so yeah so the dollar is probably just pulling back at the moment after we've had one two three four five maybe that was six seven eight days of you know bullishness it's probably just starting to pull back so if we you know go to charts what we're looking for at some point is potentially a pullback depending on obviously what happens this week but the dollar is really the strongest out of the major currencies this area looks like a great level to look for potential long trades on other dollar crosses and the dollar index is just a measure of dollar strength against the major currencies like the euro the pound the yen the australian dollar and if you see the dollar index start to turn bullish at any point that really just adds some confirmation to your dollar cross pairs and strength so if you're looking to short the dollar you know you'll be looking for again some bearish price action overall for on the dollar index if you're looking for some bullish price action you'll be looking for you know anything around here or even currently at the moment just to confirm you know some some dollar strength on the other dollar crosses um going to the dollar yen and the dollar yen from last week see me a little bit um risk being off we had a bit of a set off and the the japanese yen does benefit from a risk off environment a lot of uncertainty so um this is what's happened last week we kind of broke through this supply zone but then created another supply zone above so go into the charts that now from last week got replaced but what we have is a bit of a supply zone right here we also have a level of demand at this area here so now looks like a decent level to try for long trades you also have some horizontal support within that level of demand as well so demand is values proof of value right and then we also have the technical side where we want to look for areas where there will be potentially more demand than supply orders so what i mean by that is you've got horizontal support traders looking to buy here as well you also will have traders who trade dynamic support and resistance you know above so you can see the 100 and the 200 moving averages in this zone and then you have potentially diagonal support and resistance and again there's a link in the description box below or up top i try and put it up top i remember to put it up top um to a link which talks about the supply and demand equation in support and resistance so in supply and demand zones that add to the the confluence and potential successful trade so buying the dollar overall against the yen decent buy if not lower level around this 109 108 50 area just being like i said be careful of either risk off sentiment trump trade wars etc but also potential dollar weakness right dollar weakness if the gdp doesn't doesn't come out doesn't come out great moving on to the dollar swiss dollar swiss is in a nice zone now nice demand zone looking for some potential buyers the swiss national banker said that the swiss franc is still highly valued and so they want a cheaper swiss franc so does the the us dollar want to do want to want a cheaper dollar and so does donald trump to be fair but um i think if risk is on if risk comes back on and things are sorted with the with the trade war etc then i think the us dollar should want to strengthen uh let's go to the charts and see yeah so we have at the moment large cluster of demand zones right below and how we kind of differentiate these zones is really through again horizontal support and resistance not every zone of of you know demand or supply is necessarily strong we just look at this area as being you know value but then we want to also separate these zones with um you know diagonal and horizontal support and resistance as well as dynamic so if prices can come down to somewhere like here where you have support support support well yeah so resistance support support bit of resistance here and you've also got the confluence of that diagonal support there and let's see if there's any dynamic yep so you've got the 200 around here as well so this area here around is 998 996 area here would be a brilliant area even right now matter of fact with the 200 so the 100 moving average is decent but that would be the better area within this whole cluster of of demand so um that's how we kind of separate um our areas large areas of demand and look for the best trading opportunities if you are looking to get short and take advantage of some risk off against the dollar if the dollar starts to weaken then you're looking at this area here if you're looking at prices to kind of pull back if they do and then look for shorting trades around here moving on to the dollar CAD and the dollar CAD really is just it's still kind of within this range for the past um you know maybe about three weeks or so you've got two competing currencies two similar strength currencies at the moment um and this is basically what's happened trending markets occur when you have strength versus weakness when you have strength versus strength for weakness versus weakness then you have market stake but you can only really determine that through fundamentals and sentiment so really again where there's nothing really much to be said about the about a dollar CAD it's literally just a case of understanding where prices you know may want to come down to i think that'd be a better area of demand and again with supply the more times the level is touched the weaker it becomes so just be careful when it comes to uh you know trying to get short at any point yeah so we're looking for fresher areas of of demand or supply probably say something like if prices were to break out to the upside and you're looking to get short that is a great area of supply from a demand zone perspective um probably further down from a value range perspective but you're looking at um this area is still touched several times once twice three times so not necessarily the best area probably this area even further down would be uh more advantageous but this currency pair at the moment not great from a technical perspective um and you're really kind of you know uh trading strength against strength uh new zealand dollar us dollar um this week we've had um really a little bit of a bounce bit of a pullback again mark is don't fall forever you know there's profit taking going on some maybe potential dollar weakness going on the dollar index did set off so now if you're looking to buy the uh the new zealand dollar you know here was the time and again you had the confluence within this demand zone of some horizontal support um in my opinion the dollar is still the uh the the the currency to to buy so we'll be looking for short trades on here so um getting any kind of short trades at these supply zones and just to differentiate really um the better areas of supply within that area would you be looking for probably some sort of confluence of support and resistance so you've got support support there and uh it's a little bit of an area where you've got support and resistance in that area so you could again just look for zoom down into the lower time frame chart and then look for short trades around here to make sure you've got enough you know to the upside again if you think that the dollar is going to get weaker the uh the us dollar going to get weaker when the um new zealand dollar is going to get stronger this was a nice entry right here potentially be looking for trades uh the price to come back and then look for you know long trades within this overall demand zone and if you're looking at the overall range from the high to the low if this is going to be an expensive area this has got a bit of bargain area so bargain area for the new zealand dollar that is so this is where you'd be looking to uh potentially establish some long trades moving on to the pound dollar and the pound dollar pound of suffers from some really bad sentiment this week again a lot of uncertainty regarding uh the parliamentary leadership ruling party's leadership we are starting to see a bit of a tiny pullback but again this could just be potential profit taking into next week the pound like I said fundamentally from a GDP interest rate perspective is probably one of the um or is one of the uh leading economies but it's just a lot of uncertainty regarding businesses and once brexit you know people I guess financial institutions and then businesses know what's happening um then they can actually start to look to to invest back in the British pound but for now with all the uncertainty going on I think the pound is experiencing um big sell-off so um looking at the potential trading opportunities I'm going to drag this down a little bit maybe to around here again it's not necessarily where I draw demand zone but just demand zones but just for the sake of clarity we've got a bit of a supply zone right here so you'd be looking for short trades anywhere from around now to about the 128 level so again go down into a lower time frame chart then you'd be looking for and I do like this matter of fact do actually like this a nice uh CPR zone as well and for those who have um taken the course you'll know exactly what I'm talking about and you can look at what CPR is it also on on the uh YouTube channel but this is a nice um zone to potentially look for short trades continuation wise if you are looking for buy trades um I would probably say a bit deeper down into this area before looking at you know looking at buy trades at the moment I think that's about it and then obviously if that level of supply doesn't work out then you'd be looking at getting short around here you do also have I think a level yeah wider zone probably say maybe something like that on the underside of that supply zone let's have the best but it's there support support a bit of support here resistance resistance bit of support there so potentially anywhere around around here and just above that as well right so you've got another little zone right here as well so yeah that's where you'd be looking for short trades if you believe that the British pounds are going to get weaker when the dollar is going to get stronger at the exchange rate uh euro a dollar euro dollar I'm in this trade um I was actually trading it going to trade it past this uh this demand zone um but it's pulled back on me no problem um I still believe that the uh dollar is the stronger pair so um yeah a lot of traders probably took targets profit taking around here this was considered a bargain area for the euro profit taking problem area around here so a nice trade if you manage to take profit from really up here to you know down at the lows and at the moment we're probably around about fair value so let's go into euro dollar so we're looking at the the range that we're in at the moment ranging market over the past maybe a couple weeks we have your prices are really above that fair value zone so again another potential shorting opportunity into this supply zone even though we've touched this once twice already the better area would be a fresher area of supply to get short if you were looking looking to buy the US dollar here um from a demand zone perspective and buying the euro then this was again where you'd be looking to we should have looked to buy the euro and potentially take advantage of any kind of dollar weakness um the dollar um index did start to sell off so there were trading opportunities here um how far this is going to go to the upside is uh is anybody's guess especially you know um when the market opens um on the Sunday evening so um let's see what happens um this could obviously positive news in Europe um this could pretty much you know start to go a lot higher but let's see what happens pound dollar pound dollar again with risk off you can see what's pretty much happened over the past you know month full so the Japanese yen has strengthened not because there was a engulfing candle up here right prices not the reason why um candle sticks not the reason why prices moved down it's to do with you know financial institutions sentiment and value right so risk off this is what pretty much um occurs in a risk off environment so um again right now you're looking at any short trades back up into any kind of supply zones if you look and take advantage of the Japanese yen if you're looking to buy the euro risk comes back on a little bit some positive sentiment then you'd be looking at probably buying at any point right now would be really the uh the zone to look for buy trades within that wider demand zone as well pretty got an obvious level of support and resistance probably right at the lows I guess there may be something around here slightly as well probably say something there but for now this is pretty much where you'd be looking for buy trades if that doesn't work out then around this level this 120 pretty 121 level to 1205 level half number but again risk would have to be really you know come back on into the market for for you to try and buy this uh this currency pair going on to the ozy dollar so ozy dollar this week um touch this demand zone just pretty much you know to the tip and then you know prices have kind of gone sideways this week and potentially um a little bit of pullback but again I think overall the dollar US dollar is the strongest of the two this is a nice I think it's a nice supply zones right above it so we're looking for any kind of pullbacks into that area so buying opportunities right now we're looking for maybe a bit of a pullback before looking to get long if you're looking to get short then I like this area and this whole zone in order for short trades um in a risk off environment the dollar does do better than the uh than the Australian dollar but again it depends on what the risk off is um China slowing down is going to affect the Australian dollar a lot more than the US dollar is uh the Australian dollar um China is Australia's main trading partner so um any kind of risk off in your scene it's obviously take place right now right it's going to affect the Australian dollar more than it would affect the uh US dollar the US dollar being again I think maybe the second largest economy in the world um so yeah those are pretty much your your options for this week if you want to take advantage of some dollar dollar weakness um this week and a bit of a pullback then pretty much you're looking at maybe a bit of a pullback before looking at long trades and finally the Aussie yen and the Aussie yen this week kind of gapped up there was some positive sentiment I think with the uh Australian elections but again it only turned out to be positive sentiment but this week if you do um things are sorted from a risk perspective then this looks like an absolute bargain price against the uh the Japanese yen the bank in Japan actually want a cheaper uh yen and you can see that overall with the risk of sentiment uh the yen has been strengthening which is problematic for the bank of Japan so um potentially we could always see a pullback the markets have really you know been falling and really hasn't you know um made any kind of significant pullback so we'll probably do some sort of pullback at some point you can see what prices have come down put in this maybe double bottom type pattern potentially you know we could get a bit of a pullback up to a level at least you know a 50% level of you know that that move from that high to that low back into some sort of fair value area if you are looking to take advantage of some risk off then here isn't necessarily the best area to to to buy the Japanese yen you'd be looking at probably here or here right in order to get uh you know short the uh australian dollar and long the um let's say long but by the Japanese yen but the yen economically isn't fantastic so this would be purely a risk off place so um yeah um that's it for this week um hope you enjoyed it please like subscribe share and uh if you have any comments i would endeavor to get back to you as soon as possible i will get back to those you know uh traders who uh who have left comments as well this week thank you and uh again hope you have a great trading week take care