 As we do every Wednesday at 40 past the hour, let's jump over to our man Teddy kegs dad folks You can read Teddy's outstanding tiger forex report which he writes each week with new issues on Monday Updates throughout the week when warranted you can check that out under the newsletter tab. It's only 97 dollars folks You see the action going on with currencies. We're gonna talk about it right now That comes with a 90 90 excuse me with a 30-day money back guarantee So you got nothing at risk you get a subscriber webinar as well And if you have some time over the holidays man Teddy's got two outstanding webinars under the services tab one of them Capitalizing on time with calendar stock options spreads. We were just talking about options and the other one candlestick patterns Japanese candlestick patterns Services tab we all might have a little extra time during the holidays and let's just jump right into it Teddy kegs dad. Good morning. Good morning Tommy. We got some action and notes and bonds in the US dollar today Who you know Teddy I was I always take a look at your tiger forex report You send it over early first day of the week and then we send it out and yeah, let's talk about some of the action I know, you know, you have downside target levels. You got upside, but boy, we've had quite a trend here Lily can we start with the dollar? Absolutely for sure. Where do you want to go it lead off with that? Well, I was looking at your charts. I mean downside target level. I think you had 101 21 and We're sitting at literally 101 21 right now Teddy the tick as I pull it up So now that we've reached you had that out for subscribers early this week now. We've reached that downside target level I found myself saying okay, I wonder what Teddy says we do from here as we've reached kind of that at least short-term target pretty quickly Yeah, well, you know, what's kind of funny is that both the US dollar index target as well as notes and bonds are right at those Buffering targets that I was looking for right now. So the key thing is what the dollar is that this Right now the bearish move in the dollar index as a result of you know yields put retracting We have it almost three-month rally going on in notes and bonds and we're pressing new highs right now as we speak Now I think we're coming into a very good Corrective area right now as far as like where we're we're topping out at because we haven't seen the Fed Easy yet, you know, so right now, you know, the the market's always forward-thirky thinking especially with derivatives, you know So and right now the market is factoring in right now at least a quarter point rate cut Well, they haven't even solidified the fact that they're pausing yet, you know so I think that right now you got to be very careful with your longs right now when it comes to notes and bonds or your shorts against the dollar because How much more can we stretch this this this move this trend right now without actual fundamental action, you know So and especially if any economic numbers come in that are inflationary, you know So so I think you have to be very cautious right now if you've been riding the trend short the dollar and long Notes and bonds now is a good time to tighten up your stops because if even if we do continue to push the trend I would think you're gonna expect to get a real choppy trade right now without any fundamental confirmation right now It's a great point man because I found myself thinking along some similar lines At least I keep seeing the yield on the 10-year and I think we're under 3.85 percent right now And I found myself saying okay, you know, where is my risk reward right on either side? And I said can we really drop to like three five or three and a quarter? Of course we could okay But boy, that's really tough when the Fed is still sitting at 5.5 and you have to go out ten years to get to three So how does that so that I I understand the point? I appreciate it man because I found myself saying We're ahead of the game the market as you say they get ahead of the game And now it seems like we you know, it's ahead of the game for a while It seems as we're three or five down from five, which is bonkers man I hope your listeners really paid attention to what you just said about the risk reward, you know Is there still potential on these trends? Absolutely, but as far as what you're gaining potentially, you know Versus where the other SI action is to the downside, you know You really have to weigh those options right now for sure, you know, I'm cool So it wouldn't be crazy if the tenure was it like four and a quarter, right? Or you know, they're like those types. I mean just not crazy at all as an obvious. That's the yeah exactly I mean, it doesn't mean we're not gonna be back under four in an instant But those types of move like you say choppy and even let's say the Fed is going to start cutting rates Even at the next meeting we still should have some sort of pullback and they're raising in yields markets Don't just go in one direction, you know, so this trend is pretty stretched. It's pretty steep You know, so for us to at least have a look the market pushing yields higher for just a short term That's normal, right? That would be it would be a you know a couple weeks of having higher yields before we go back on The lower yield trend is normal and I think we're kind of coming into that phase. I would think you know stuff Pretty remarkable yields almost end the year where we began them with quite the roller coaster But pretty close to that price point Do you want to jump to maybe the yen? I want to get to crude as well But maybe the yen because we got some action, of course and that that's driving we got gold with some action We're we're sitting at 142 and change. What do you think about the yen as we're just chopping around a little bit so far this week Yes, you know what I think that you know in this tiger forks report I said that you've of the yen I think is one of the currencies you have to be really careful with I Think it's gonna be range bound for the rest of this week, you know I mean could we see a nice small rally or even try and hit the lows again? I mean, there's nothing Fundamentally right now that's gonna dictate that of all the currency pairs versus a dollar I think you're gonna have a sleepy trade here. So I'd be very cautious It's gonna be wedging and I would expect it to break out either to the downside or to the upside, you know Sometime next week, you know, but right now we we felt the low that was hit a week and a half ago It was just short of our downside target and without the BOJ doing anything yet Which we know they are gonna do something in 2024, you know But that also goes in line with us. I mean if they're gonna start, you know Doing anything it's not gonna be anything severe, you know It's not like they're gonna be like we were on a campaign of raising rates for meeting after meeting after meeting, you know The Japanese they're gonna maybe do one raid hike, you know Potentially of a quarter point, you know sometime between now and the next six months, you know So is it bearish the US dollar yen? I think it's keeping us from hitting those those hot multi-month highs that we hit a couple months ago You know, but especially unless we do raise another quarter point I think your range bound right now that this 140 level the 145 is gonna be a tough trade You know, I would think at least for the next couple of weeks and then potentially especially if we get past our next Fed meeting You know, and then there's no longer any sense of perhaps another hike and we're gonna be on at least a pausing basis Then I think you could start to see us maybe hit lower lows and see the yen back down to 135 level, you know Just because of our Fed going on a pause and then the potential no matter what of the BoJ doing something, you know To do some kind of raising You whether it's raising rates or quantitative, you know They could do there's multiple things that the BoJ can do it that they're at their disposal, you know And it's hard to guess what they're going to do because they haven't done very much over the past 30 years Yeah year, you know So the crystal ball is very foggy when it comes to the Japanese because they don't do things very often or very quickly So but yeah, I think you're very range bound. I would not Get you know overly bearish yet until we have the fundamental confirmations I think it is a sell rally forecast, but it's gonna be tight I think between 140 and 145 now if we breach with the 145 area and you see for instance yields going higher and the dollar getting stronger Well, then maybe we could get a run back at that 150 threshold that the BoJ has But as we how much nothing right now is gonna cause that market action So you're talking about a big trend that would take weeks to occur which puts us into the new year Just to wrap it up. Is this the last one? What do you think about crude at 75 bucks? What do you think next year? I like it. I like it going a little bit higher, especially with all the conflict with the you know in the Middle East Teddy, thank you so much for a great 2023 man. We'll talk to you next year Have a great all-day safe holiday man. Happy new year to all of you. Happy new year Teddy