 Hi, my name's Leon road currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 comma welcome to this week's supply and demand Forex and gold fundamental and technical analysis if you are new a warm welcome to you And if you're returning an equally warm welcome to you also and if you find the content that I Provide every week useful when I've been getting some really nice comments Thank you to all of you who have been commenting saying that the videos have really kind of improved your trading and helped your results You know, don't forget to like subscribe and share with your fellow trading colleagues So well, yeah, it helps the YouTube algorithm and it is a free way to support the channel just by liking and Subscribing and our trade process is really to combine fundamental analysis with technical analysis to really find the best trades available and understand really bargains and Where prices are likely to go in the medium to long term so Getting into the week ahead and some of the news flows looking at trading economics week ahead zoom in a little bit and We're gonna pretty much skip this bit here because it's more to do with With the reporting the quarterly reports But what we need to focus on is really the central banks in the US and Japan will be this side on monetary policy So that would be interesting. Why is it interesting because central bank policy has a direct effect on currency value So men direction so on the economic data front the US Eurozone Mexico and South Korea are releasing the first estimates of first quarter GDP That's going to be big for really the US and the Eurozone, which the US is expected to actually grow With their with it with their GDP, which actually could be a potential buying opportunity Eurozone is actually expected to be in the In the negative actually I'm going to a recession, but we'll get into the euro dollar trade as there has been some developments in that euro trade and Really the the the sentiment around it But yeah, first quarter GDP is is really important other updates to follow include the US durable goods orders and personal income and outlays The eurozone business survey and inflation. Sanflation is also important Japan retail sales industrial production China and BS PMI survey and Australia inflation data. So that will also be Important as well. So let's get on to the technicals and Starting off as we always do on the Dow Jones dollar index And the Dow Jones dollar index is really just a measure of dollars strength against a basket of currencies and the dollar Surprisingly has actually been on the decline and with all the good news that's been happening around the US dollar It's still again a bit of a surprise because you would really expect the dollar to continue Going to the upside from here and let's look into some some some news articles on this and We've had US jobless claims fuel recovery optimism So new unemployment claims fell yet again and are edging closer to pre-pandemic levels with the recovery or with the sorry economy opening up and More and more each day We are anticipating a series of one million plus monthly payroll gains as that could be enough for the federal reserve to call a Substantial further progress and start the tapering progress or process I should say before the end of the year and that is actually positive For the dollar and I said the dollars had really positive news So it's been a bit head scratching when it comes to why the dollar has been you know declining over the past few weeks and Part of it is to do with the euro Reflation trade which I will get into when we get into the euro section But if you still believe that that there is value in the dollar We've come down into a really nice fresh demand zone right here So this potentially would be a buying opportunity and what you want to see is really the dollar the DXY Kind of turn up when it comes to the price action is Confluence if it starts to you know go bullish and then you're going to go on to any of the dollar pairs in order to a look for buying opportunities on the dollar and We really haven't had a pullback for a very long time. We've kind of cut through a few Demand zones and price doesn't tend to you know moving straight lines, right? We tend to move in waves So the point being if you're looking at this for example prices go up price go down price go up pullbacks, etc All right, this is basically what happens So if you understand that and you understand that we've had this you know This this large move for the past Couple of weeks since the beginning of April really no pullbacks at all a pullback is due Yeah, so if a pullback is due where is that pullback likely to occur these are really the two zones It could occur. So we could if you do see some positive First quarter data for example, that might be the trigger for some optimism around Buying and then we could see some upside potential if you're looking to continue to sell the dollar in You know in the medium to short time and you believe that the dollar will get weaker then that zone of supply between the 91 if prices do come up in there and 90 sorry, 91 60 and 91 80s Would be again confluence. You wouldn't necessarily be shorting the dollar index You'd be looking for short trades on the dollar yen dollar Swiss for example But with this as your confluence and just looking for Prices to kind of reverse in these zones as confluence. So dollar positive really positive Economic news, but just really disappointing price if you're if you're a dollar Buyer, but doesn't mean that the dollar's gonna continue falling Remember that if the financial institutions believe that there is some, you know dollar value Then this is actually a bargain price is what you would call a bargain price and if you actually look at You know the beginning of the year 2021 where price the low of the dollar to the actual high Yeah, between the low and a high price This would be an absolute bargain for the dollar and it was proven because prices went higher This is an expensive area for the dollar Why do we know that because there's really been no demand for the dollar at that price in between a bargain and expensive area is actually Fair value, right? So this is fair value and we are below fair value anything below fair value would be considered cheap or as we know bargain prices, so Pretty much this could be a nice buying opportunity for the dollar if you want to continue getting long on the dollar and believing dollar strength coming into the near future moving on to the dollar yen dollar yen again benefiting really from Some dollar price weakness. I don't really want to call it dollar weakness because Fundamentally the dollar is you know miles ahead of of Japan And in fact talking about Japan Fundamentally we've got Japan actually going into Imposing new state of emergency as COVID-19 cases rise So Japan is preparing for a short spell of COVID-19 restrictions and its biggest cities over a week Long holiday that begins this weekend in an effort to halt rapid Rise in cases so a state of emergency has been declared in Tokyo Osaka Hyogo and Kyoto, I think they pronounce it Prefectures between the 25th of April and 11th of May this period includes Golden Week one of Japan's biggest Public holidays when many people travel which falls on the first week of May and Unlike previous states of emergency in January and February the government is expected to request the complete closure of Venues serving alcohol and large shops excluding supermarkets. Yeah, so the public will be asked to work from home and Etc. Where schools but Where possible but schools will stay open so again, it sounds like it's quite severe which will have a knock-on effect potentially on the Japanese economy going into the future so with that going on and really the US having actually still a Decent vaccine rollout program in the economy going on track Pullbacks in price. Yeah, I generally or should be seen as buying opportunities So the third of the first area to look for buying from a demand zone perspective is actually this going to be this one Sixth demand zone around here and if prices can come down even further That's going to be really nice. If not probably what we're looking for if you would do and be a buyer of the dollar yen After especially after this move like I said prices tend to move in waves right when you get large moves like this I don't pull back you have to have a deep pullback. It just has to happen So this is just a pullback when you look at this, you know This trader this trend and if we don't get any kind of demand zone Then what you want to do is wait for demand to create yourself a pullback into that zone there and then look for Some long trades if that's your your preference if you're thinking that you want to be a buyer of the Japanese yen Let's say for example risk is off where money flows into safe haven assets and safe haven currencies Like the Japanese yen, then you're looking for a move back up to that zone there that 108 764 before looking at any kind of a short trades Moving on to the dollar Swiss and the dollar Swiss I'm in this trade and they're just waiting for prices really to try and move a bit higher I do think again the move that has happened on the The dollar is quite extended. We do we are due a pullback Right, we are due some sort of pullback at some point. Hopefully the pullback does happen at some point soon if not, then it's down to really the next to demand zone because when Prices are seen as a bargain down here Then or anywhere down here then what you want to do is capitalize on the up move the risk reward will be Really good on that and it's just about holding these types of trades But the timing of the turning is the is the problem for that really Or the conundrum for all traders, right? Nobody knows exactly where the turning points will be so and if they did then There'd be a trillionaires by now. So we just manage our risk see where the The the turning points are made a little bit of profit I'm actually up on this trade as I enter multiple positions here So I'm still in one of my my trades stop loss below this low here and Let's see what's um, you know what happens and hopefully we get some sort of double bottom with and prices move to the upside If I lose this trade, it's no worries I'm not a loss really because of the fact that I've made some money on the upside So let's see what happens But if you haven't got in this trade now is actually a quick pretty decent area to look for long trades If not prices, you know down into this demand zone this one Zero point nine zero cent level also as well keep your eye on the first quarter GDP rights the first quarter GDP if it comes out as expected or even better than expected then you can expect Really prices should want to go, you know higher if not becomes that really disappointing Then a in fact the dollar may want to you know continue rolling over, right? Let's see what happens, but the forecasts are for for actually a positive GDP growth for the dollar Swiss Frank wise We've got some supply zones above so some lower highs and lower lows one right there and really one right there So again pull back into this zone here if you do get it and you want to be a short You know you only get short on the dollar and buy the Swiss Frank Then that's the that's the area to look for any kind of short trades dollar CAD and the dollar CAD really just been chopping around This week To the upside in the downside I've always said that I do like this area for from a buying perspective from a technical analysis perspective from a fundamental perspective I'm not really too keen on this this currency pair Even though there are calls for the dollar Dollar CAD to actually reach the one to two levels by The likes of a city bank and ING banks, so I think the par for these resistance is probably continuing to the downside Canadian strength and there was some good Bank of Canada news they reduced. I think it was bond purchases So and then there's now talks of potential rate hikes and the inflation actually came out really well above expectation as well so Again Canada firing on all cylinders just like the US but prices moving in the right direction for for Canada So again, if you do want to be a buyer then really and truly for me I think it's probably the higher level this level has been used a few times not too Don't really like when levels have been, you know touched several times and even this level has been touched several times So for me, I think really if we do get all up here I'm not sure whether we will anytime soon, but if we do then that's a that's a sell And any kind of buying opportunities for buying the dollar against the CAD that's a really nice demand zone there Moving on to the New Zealand dollar US dollar and prices again have come up into this supply zone You know gone sideways for a little bit. I do think that there is some demand right here Demand and you've got a little bit of demand here as well So Buying right now might not be the best, you know choice if you want to be a buyer in New Zealand Dollar wait for a pullback into that area there before looking at getting long that 70 cent level if prices do come up and break through these supply zones then maybe wait for a pullback into that demand zone before looking at getting long and Again, that's if you want to be a buyer of the New Zealand dollar if you want to be a buyer of the The US dollar I think now is a really really good time to look for a short trades the New Zealand dollar is actually Commodity currency and should do well on a risk on environment So hence the reason why you're seeing this over the past couple of weeks, but if I was gonna go along the US dollar It's really not gonna be against something like the the New Zealand dollar But if you did want to you know, you saw a technical opportunity and they were always gonna be technical opportunities But that means you take every single one of them But if that is something that you do want to take then that's the really the short trading you have to expect the Dollar to kind of increase in value in the US dollar. I'm talking about moving on to the pound dollar and the pound dollar Again, I think the the expectation for the British pound is actually for a higher Pound dollar valuation somewhere around here So if you're looking at buying opportunities in fact that is hidden demand So if you get a pullback into this 1.378 level then you're looking at a nice buying opportunity if your prices can come back down into that zone there I do prefer this area here as a potential buy. It's got the Support and resistance confluence in there But if you want to be a buyer of the the dollar then really I think this this this higher level price and come up to here That's a really nice technical zone to look for any kind of Short trades and We talk about the the pound as well going on some fundamental fundamental analysis Surging demand signals strong rebound for UK economy so official data shows rising retail sales and Acceleration in hiring of new staff as lockdown measures ease to the UK On Friday showed signs of rebounding strongly from the coronavirus as companies reported surging demand and official data highlighted consumers splashing the cash as lockdown measures eased so You know the the UK economy really kind of firing on all fronts when it comes to You know growth so again, would you want to be a buyer of the pound against the dollar for me? It's not really a pair again. I'm interested in to kind of strong currencies or economic or fundamentally I should say but some price wise obviously the dollar is suffering a little bit But we could see some upside dollar potential. So it's a bit more of a difficult read me personally I think there are definitely easier trades out there now moving on to the Euro dollar and before we get into the Euro dollar Technical analysis, I just wanted to mention that we have until the 30th of April Before we close the private discord mentoring group and you can really kind of access the group for less than really a cup of coffee a day 1 pound 64 as years though is 99 p a day and what we have and what we provide in the Discord room is really mentoring and you can watch all the videos on YouTube you want but trading Involves feedback any skill involves having, you know, somebody who's been there and done it giving you direct feedback and What you want to do is really kind of join a really friendly group a supportive group None of this nonsense where people are, you know, really kind of disruptive and Giving you really kind of bad advice and come in and really kind of learn the skill of trading Also, you get trading videos pretty much every single day if not every day every single other days So and they're really informative everything to do with fundamentals and technicals as well as access to the fundamental analysis Spreadsheet and you can check out all of the content that I provide as well free content on my YouTube channel which is here and Before you join to get a bit of a taste of what we provide in the private mentoring group so back to the Euro-dollar analysis and the Euro-dollar really has been a surprising quite a surprising Currency pair and especially the move up right the move up isn't really hasn't really been expected because we've had really good news At every kind of turning point that we kind of expected over the past couple of weeks from unemployment You know to inflation and literally all we've seen is the dollar get weaker and weaker and the euro getting stronger So is it because you know that the dollar is weak or the euro is strong now all of a sudden And really it's to do with and I've made a video on this earlier Earlier today or over the weekend and it's to do with the euro reflation trade and the euro reflation trade is To kind of kind of break it down in the sense is that There is there was a a central bank There was a central bank meeting on Thursday and really the outcome was no surprises, but From the ING analysis there was more euro-dollar upside to come. Yeah, and Looking ahead and beyond today's ECB meeting the euro-dollar uptrend Which started this month should remain in place plenty of bad news has now been priced into the euro The currency has been trading with a persistent risk premium over the past few months and despite the Recent rise in the euro-dollar It screens cheap based on our and on their short-term financial fair value model by around 1.5% And the euro zone economic data is likely to pick up in the coming months as the pace of vaccinations Increases so improving euro zone data should translate into some upside for the euro equally important The dollar strength observed during the first quarter of this year appears to be fading and the currency is no longer Reacting positively to solid US dollar data points, which is basically what I've been saying it He really wasn't reacting to it And what's I think what really is it's happening or what they think has happened is that this suggests that plenty of good news Has already been priced into the dollar and coupled with the Federal Reserve presiding over deeply negative US front-end real rates this should weigh on the currency so a lot of the Positive dollar news has been priced in and there's no really way to kind of quantify that right You can't see that in real time You have to just take the trades that you take the trades and even going against you the market apparently is pricing The good news in for the dollar already but not pricing in the good news for the euro So again, it's by the rumors of the fact right and what I mean by for example reflation trade is that You've got over say I say we've reflation revaluation trade is that the euro is now in focus So if they're buying the euro here with the expectation of the euro Going higher due to Economic data vaccinations, etc. Then in fact the euro looks a bit cheap down here regardless of what's happening You know with the with the dollar so another article really on that is This so it says the euro capitulation trade is in full swing on vaccine bets So a sudden rebound in the euro and the sell-off in Bond havens Forcing investment strategist to play catch up on rising expectations for European growth So it's not just retail traders that have been caught offside. It's the institutions as well Right as the currency climbs towards 120 some of the investment community worry their projections for the months ahead Look too gloomy Goldman Sachs This week revised up its three-month forecast to 125 from one to one meanwhile PNB Paribas Pisset, I think that's how you pronounce it and manual life investments are predicting German bonds yields were term positive by December for the first time in two years and there's a lot of Interesting information in here. I'll just read this as well quickly the shifting dynamics So the recovery in the single currency is set to continue according to Charles Diabelle a money manager Mediolanum, I think that's how you what is who says that it could be 25 by the year end So his quote is the euro has been an underperforming against the dollar and a sterling laggard in terms of the vaccine rollout Which is the reason why we were going short around here went short up here We went short around here We're going shorts taking these shorts right because of the differential between the divergence between the US growth and the the Euro lagging behind but now what's being priced in on this move to the upside and potentially up to one two five Yeah, is the fact that the euro now is potentially recovering, right? And if it starts to recover you don't want to you don't want to buy the euro once it's recovered the smart money I've already started to make their money right down here. So this is where you buy the rumors sell the fact So now if you do want to be a buyer of the euro If you want to be a buyer of the euro, it's waiting for now pullbacks to get long for me personally I don't think I'm really going to be trading the euro dollar as there was a lot of conflicting information regarding You know the the euro and the data has to also support the narrative This is one thing that you have to you can't just blindly start buying the euro because you read it somewhere You have to the euro has to actually start performing because the rumor is fine, right? You can buy the rumor Yeah, but if the data comes out and the dot and the euro it starts to struggle And they have setbacks and there's another outbreak and etc etc then the rumor really doesn't have any legs So it's a bit of a chance that you're taking buying the euro especially against what would be considered a positive You know economic Macroeconomic dollar right from macroeconomic perspective fundamental perspective the dollar is doing really well So there are better trades and there are easier trades to buy the euro against and you really want to you know Buy the euro against and a currency or a country that isn't doing so well So when it comes to this actual trade markets don't move up forever Of course, they don't they move in waves. So if you do see prices pull back Yeah, then you can actually look for some euro buys Yeah, but again, don't be surprised if you do get a deep pullback Yeah, if you do get a deeper pullback on the dollar So keep an eye out for the Again the first quarter data my first quarter day that could be the catalyst that actually sends the The euro dollar to the downside, but again, where would a cheap Place be to buy the euro if you're looking at the beginning of the year, which is up here to the Where we are the high and the low Right, so this is the beginning of the year. This is January. This is the high of the year This is the low of the year. We're actually at what again, what is known as fair value? So again, if you do want to be a buyer at a dollar, which the institutions do do they want to be a buyer up here Or they do do but they want to wait for maybe a pullback down into one of these demand zones before looking at getting long So again, that's your there's your your choice If you do want to you know trade this pair, but very interesting pair It has been a really interesting pair to kind of see what's been happening I do think prices will eventually start to roll over but In the short term but again, I would a medium to long term if the data does support the euro going longer against the dollar Then that's the path of least resistance moving on to the dollar Sorry the euro yen and the euro yen again for me I think this is probably starting to be a buy now and I was saying this in our in our in our group at the euro yen now I haven't traded this for a very long time, but now it starts to look like a decent Buy especially if you're again if we if you look into euro is is potentially going to strengthen And then any pullbacks against a weaker currency for me now start to look like a buy So if there is a pullback there brilliant if there's a pullback here Then I'm looking for some buy trades and if prices don't pull back and they go higher This would be with this would have created a demand zone. So then you're looking for pullbacks like that That's what I'm looking for in in from from this currency pair Like I said, I haven't traded this pair for a very long time But now that the the fundamentals are dictating where money potentially is flowing into then this is How we pick our currency pairs every week If you do want to get short on the euro then this is a decent time to look for any kind of short trades But again, you really have to see the the Japanese yen Are a risk-off environment or the door or the euro start to kind of sell off due to bad news or The Japanese yen start to increase in strength due to good news moving on to the Australian dollar US dollar and again Two decent currencies prices really didn't go anywhere this week again economically Both are quite strong. The Australian dollar is projected to kind of reach the 80 cent level within the next You know quarter or two, but in the meantime, no one knows right where prices are going to go from a short-term perspective But if you do want to be a buyer of the Australian dollar That looks like a bit of a bargain and if prices come back to the 75 That'd be an even better bargain if you expect prices to go up here within the next, you know, three to six months From a again the US dollar sell. This is actually a decent area again looking at where fair value is From the beginning of the year, which was probably around. This is putting the low of the year to the high of the year Right there So we're at again fair value so decent, but you really want to trade at the extremes, right? You wouldn't want to trade at lows and the highs those provide the best buying opportunities buying a fair value isn't necessarily great if you're If you're looking to buy the Australian dollar, obviously if you're looking to buy the US dollar Then that starts to become decent you've got enough downside potential if you consider where your risk is But again, not really a currency pair that I'm interested in trading to kind of conflicting currencies Aussie yen. I am a want to be a buyer of this currency pair So waiting for a decent pullback if we can get one down into one of these zones before looking at getting long Again in the risk on environment Yeah, the Australian dollar should do better than the Japanese yen So if we can get any kind of pullbacks that would be nice for a re-entry if prices move higher Not to worry just wait for any kind of pullback into a demand zone before looking at getting Long again if you're looking at getting short then this is probably the area where you want to look for short trades There's some hidden supply there. That's hidden supply. So Again, you're looking at probably the best area would be up above this 85 area. That's a fresher area of supply from here Really nice So that's really where the short trade is and again, you really want to see some if prices come up here You want to see some bad news for the Australian dollar or good news for the Japanese yen and Finally gold looking at gold. So again with dollar weakness Coming into the market and the dollar and the gold moving inversely. We have we had prices go, you know higher, right? So we can delete that but the question is is how likely is gold continue to move higher I do think it can move higher if inflation does get out of hand, but we've We've really again positive news around, you know, the dollar unemployment etc growth in The the market I think this is probably just some sort of again fair value Pull back. So again, if we're looking at the high of the year to the low of the year Yeah, we've really kind of pulling back to what is probably known as fair value That's all this is and then looking for potential short trades if you want to get short on Gold we do have a think an article here, which is talking about gold erases gains as US data Refuse recovery optimism. So metal seems to shrug off new News of Biden capital gains tax plans and outflows from gold backed ETFs slowed but not stopped. So gold fell I guess in the short term amid rising bond yields off the strong US economic data refueled optimism of a global Recovery, so I think this is probably one of those articles where it talks about gold selling off But it was just for the date But if you're looking at the bigger picture then it doesn't like gold really kind of sold off to it This is like the 23rd it was written. So that was pretty much just for that day But if you understand the bigger picture You know, you'll understand that with the with They're being global growth and money kind of flowing into other assets and probably out of gold because Gold is typically seen as a safe haven asset when things are, you know, in a bit of there's a lot of fear a lot of doubt a lot of uncertainty And that has kind of gone away for in in the US. So and really kind of around the world So why then would you look to buy gold? This is the this is the question of saying that you should or you shouldn't not find actual advice But the question is why would money then pile into gold? The only other reason why money would be piling into gold is a hedge against inflation. So Dollar inflation. So if you do see Inflation being a problem, right? It's a rising inflation, which it is at the moment I would say it's it's creeping up. I would say it's a problem, but it's definitely creeping up But if the narrative starts to change and the you see lots see the Federal Reserve you know hiking rates and Inflation still rising as their hiking rates and I think gold is going to be a decent buy So let's see what happens with that but until that day comes For me, I'm really not trading any of the precious metals There is a bit of a demand zone right here as well in case you did want to be a buyer Of gold or a seller at the moment again Looking for supply zones around now for potential short and this would again coincide with any kind of dollar strength if the For the third time, I guess if the third if the if the first quarter data I've got to get it out the first quarter data starts Is really good Oh as expected and there's growth when you start to see that the US dollar starts to strengthen Then that is going to put some down with pressure on gold is definitely will what I say definitely There's no definite sin in in in a currency land But the probabilities are that it may put some down pressure on gold But yeah, that brings us to really the end of the weekly analysis guys I hope you enjoyed it again. Don't forget to like subscribe share and if you want to you know, take the The the course and really understand and get in-depth fundamental and technical analysis Then join the discord room as it closes on the 30th of April And I'll see you look forward to working with you if you do join so take care and until the next video all the best