 and right now folks we're going to jump over to our man teddy keg stat folks if you haven't checked it out yet on the front page of tfnn right now the tiger forex report by a man teddy this kicked off about a few weeks ago teddy puts out updates every monday with a full report on the forex market he talks crude he got stocks the thirty-year bond in there as well as many of the main pairings that you look at and in this environment folks forex notes and bonds energy prices crude driving so much what's happened you heard our man kevin hanks talking about the group crude contract as we kicked off the program trading at ninety five dollars now the last time the fed was meeting you right about a hundred and twenty dollars coming into that and folks this is the last week i encourage you to sign up for teddy's report enter the code teddy twenty five you lock in twenty five percent savings you get the newsletter from a month worst case scenario it still comes with a thirty-day thirty-day money-back guarantee and we got a lot to talk about this morning on fed day teddy keg stack good morning good morning so where do you want to kick things off man we got some action notes and bonds we're a little action in the crude contract uh... volatility persisting in of course we got a fed decision at two o'clock today eastern times eddie where uh... where's your head on where we kick it off in the conversation this morning now i'm waiting for two o'clock to come and go so things can get back to normal trading it's a great now as a forex trader you know do you do you try it like you have an analysis g are you looking for seventy five you looking for fifty are you trying to square what's gonna happen in in that type of scenario or you just letting the chips fall and and then making a plan of of where the fed comes in at two o'clock today eastern uh... right now my my viewpoint is that they're probably gonna do the three quarters of a point which is pretty much the expectation i think the full point is off the table i don't really think they're gonna do that one i would be surprised if they do um... it's i think the biggest thing is going to be the speak afterwards i can't see that they're really gonna change anything uh... just because that they're already been there's everyone knows they're behind the curve already so i think they're very cautious on what they say especially with the numbers how they've been coming out the past month or two you know and remember we don't have another fed meeting now for two months so i i i think what they're really going to i mean that gives them time to begin with so i think what they're going to do is just give you the same blah blah blah they've been giving you and say that they're gonna re-evaluate things excuse me over the next couple months as the economic numbers come out so what what's interesting is that uh... interest rates have been rallying the way they have over the past week and a half especially so and we've come up to it you know there's a if you look at the thirty year in the ten year we are on a daily basis you pretty much have a reverse head and shoulders breakout that it occurred kind of source is is forming right now so we're at but the thing is the resistance level we're coming at now is also an extreme so if they raise three quarters of a point with an expectation of another half to three quarters in the in the uh... september meeting it's gonna be hard for the interest rate markets to hold these highs right now because you remember it's the market that's bringing these rates down right now not the fact that that is pushing for higher rates so i think you're going to see i mean no matter what it's a fed day it's always i always tell people unless you're in a trade work managing it don't get him into a trade until after this is over until the next day because the algos army firing on all senate cylinders especially in the last like hour before the fed meeting you know so you're gonna have a lot of thin volume some phantom moves where you're just getting if you look at the how the dollars traded in in most of the pairings in even how the interest rates have traded over the past couple days and especially the last five six sessions you're all bulls and bears are getting slaughtered especially the weak ones if you're just gambling in the market get trying to get along or short position and you've been getting just just chewed up you know there's no real follow-through we're going to start to see some we're gonna see a trend new either a continuation of the trend going on right now or work we're coming to an inflection point where i think we're gonna have a reversal in my opinion i think we're gonna see the reversal because the bond market this is we had some options and now we come into this number after this we have two months before the fed's gonna do something and i think we're gonna start to see the rates go higher in the market by meaning the bond prices and ten year prices going down and then that'll make them bring strength back to the dollar as well yeah it's pretty cool i had it up the the head and shoulders on those formations on the thirty year on the ten years and pretty wild moves late last week right in the ten year and thirty of the ten years up three full points man as as the yield on that ten year was diving lower coming into this meeting and i would agree that uh... i think this meeting more so there might be a lot of nuance on how you can interpret what the chairman says because he's not gonna have a lot of concrete data to actually go off right you got two months right the last inflation number got was like nine point one percent we got three point six percent unemployment what else is he gonna say but we're gonna wait for the data and then maybe he'll slip in a little word that people might try and interpret but nonetheless man it's gonna be a waiting game for that data because you make a great point two months we're gonna get so much data by the time they have their next meeting it almost doesn't matter what he says and of course it always matters what he says folks but in that context man there's just gonna be so much data before their next meeting that's that's kind of probably what he's gonna point to as it's been the case jumping around uh... let's talk a little crew if we could because commodities uh... we talked over at kevin hanks he made a great point in terms of you know one thing he may talk about is energy prices where they are this meeting versus last meeting we're kind of sitting near the the lower area of support for crude recently at that ninety five ninety six dollar range what you take on the crew market right now well it's definitely has stabilized that's for sure it's obvious by the charts i still i'm still a crude bull i think that this is just like a little pause before the uh... the next move higher and especially now once we get through this fed meeting we if they keep the stance of higher interest rates moving forward and are really still very strong in that state you know in that stance moving through the rest of the year i can't see how crude oil prices and commodity prices are going to get a rebound you know so you gotta remember we've had set markets go out like they come in we've had such an accelerated move in these trends for us to come back in and consolidate like we're doing that's not a bearish thing that's that's a profit taking an adjusting to it you know that overwhelming strength you know so there's no real forces that are gonna really make us say that you know crude oil is going to go down you know i mean especially cuz opax at maximum production russian oil is not making it to the market except for a while so if unless you believe the rumors you know that there's an underground market being you know moving oil around but you know as far as moving with europe you know you have more energy restrictions especially oil how does that big make oil bearish you know because demand for europe if they're they're looking for other sources now you know and that's gonna make you know that the transportation issue you know the whole logistics of everything that changes their infrastructure and how they have to move things in these things don't happen overnight these things take for half a year to a year to manifest you know and we're heading into winter time so that's what i have to tell people like you if you look at how we've had this pullback in heating oil and natural gas and gasoline and crude and stuff like that we're on the verge of winter time we've had a very soft summer me as hot you know but it's as a whole we've had a decent summer time conditions you know what happens we haven't had any hurricanes were heading away and you know i mean you live down in florida i don't got to tell you that that's why i was gonna chime in go man there's always some hurricanes we're coming in august that roll through the gulf and that always gives a little volatility to crude especially along with everything else yeah right you know and so and i i mean unless we somehow pass through all this you know which you never know we could get really lucky with the weather maybe there's something that eases the things between russia and ukraine and also the talks between russia and europe if that would happen well then i could say i would start to become more neutral to bearish on oil but i think right now it's really just a resting point before it starts to go back up and test the highs hey can you hang with us for a few more minutes at the end of the program sure all right perfect we're gonna talk to yen folks we're gonna talk a little bit of euro when we get back here we'll finish up with our man teddy uh... stay tuned folks we'll be right back welcome back folks we get the s&p's up one point one percent right now jumping over to the dollar yen we're talking to our man teddy kegs that and folks if you haven't checked it out head on over the front page of the tfnn check out the tiger forks report this month code teddy twenty five you save twenty five percent for ever as long as you subscribe teddy i have a chart of the dollar yet appear uh... little bit of a pullback over the last couple weeks were up a bit over the last few days what's your take on the end sitting at about one thirty seven right now well you know if you look at it just on a technical basis if i remove all the geopolitical and the fed in central bank stuff right now if we didn't have a federal f one c meeting today and it looks a little young settle where it's at right now after this little three-day little pause you know when some sudden bearish on tone i would say it's actually looking kind of bearish you know like especially if we were to let's say we settle where right now today forget f one c meeting and had a cell off say tomorrow that took out the low from a few sessions ago that to me would be a very bearish indication because we really stretch the support on this correction overall this trend is so exacerbated that it doesn't mean that this correction is really that extreme but if you look at it technically not taking all these other things do it like the technicals yeah it's that's looking like it wants to it's like it wants to sell off you know like this is a rally to sell i think after the number especially because we have a two month reprieve now i mean the japanese central bank is not done a thing the finance ministry is not done a thing so if unless they come out and do something while our feds doing something today or some news comes from them that they're not enough now they're gonna pull the trigger where i think i see a rally coming you know where we can make take out the highs and go back to one forty even one forty five before the next that meeting wild stuff and especially i had on a daily i put on a weekly pretty it's looking pretty parabolic at some point man from almost a hundred right to one forty remarkable right and we'll have a few seconds teddy what about the euro dollar as we wrap it up just above parity right now you still looking for under parity i am i am especially you know if you look at how it's traded the last six days of the the pound the dollar at the pound dollar in the euro dollar it's been really choppy and i think it's really ready to sell off one more time teddy thanks so much for the conversation man we appreciate as always will talk to you next week sounds good time you take care take care