 It is DiGrom day today in MLB DFS, Jacob DiGrom taking the hill for the New York Mets and our job for today is to decide whether DiGrom's recent form is concerning enough for us to be backing off of him in DFS. I don't know because it's Jacob DiGrom and saying, hey, don't use Jacob DiGrom is generally stupid. I'm not going to work out very well for you, but it is at least worth discussing because the past two starts with DiGrom. Since coming out of that most recent injury haven't been quite as good. So we'll dig into DiGrom's recent form, see if there is actual cause for concern and see whether we should still prioritize DiGrom for tonight in MLB DFS. Welcome on into the solo shot. That's right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Here to break down today's seven game main slate with lockset for 705 for tonight. And unfortunately, as with last night, there is plenty of gross weather here for today. It is grossest, I would say in Washington for the Nationals and the Dodgers. It looks like that game is going to have rain all day. I would have alternative plans if you are planning on trying to use players in that game for the Nats and the Dodgers. In Cleveland as they host the Astros, winds are in from center at 13 miles per hour. Downgrade hitters there. There is a chance of rain in Atlanta for the Braves and the Mets. It depends on when the rain gets there, but I'm guessing they are good to go for right now. There's a chance of rain in Coors Field as well for the Rockies and the Cardinals. It's another where they should be able to get that game in, but you'll have to check back on that one later. And finally, the roof will be closed today at Chase Field for the Diamondbacks and the Giants. So it's still a good park for hitting, but downgraded from usual for there. So biggest rain chances for today are in Washington specifically, but then also in Atlanta and Denver. And then we also have downgraded hitters in Cleveland and kind of in Phoenix as well due to weather there. Hey baseball fans, Fandle is giving you the opportunity to get involved with Daily Fantasy Baseball with the MLB Home Run Challenge. Each day you can draft three players and you receive one point for every home run they hit, score three points for a share of the $2,000 prize pool, score six or more points, and you'll win a share of the $10,000 prize pool. All you have to do is head over to Fandle today and draft your sluggers. Eligibility restrictions apply. Head over to Fandle.com or download the Fandle Fantasy app for more details. Pitching preview for this Thursday. Forgot what day today is. It's Thursday. Jacob DeGrom, the highest salaried pitcher on today's slate. He checks in at $11,500. Followed by Corbin Burns at $10,600. From Revolves is $10,200. Johnny Cueto, Patrick Corbin, Ian Anderson, Merrill Kelly and Luis Castillo are the others at $10,000 or $8,000 or higher for today. Now let's start things off here with DeGrom because he is the obvious headliner for today. I am down to Stack Course Field. We'll talk about that later on. And I think that the dilemma with DeGrom is amplified by the presence of a desirable stack at Course Field. So let's talk about DeGrom here. He's in a tough spot because the Braves are a very good offense. They have tons of power versus righties, but they do strike out and DeGrom can get plenty of those. If we look at the overall form for DeGrom since he came back from his most recent stint on the IL, he has been changing things up in that time. He's using fewer forcing fastballs over his past five starts. But his strikeout rate in that time is still 42% with a 1.97 skill interactive ER rate. So if we look at DeGrom overall since his last stint on the IL, we'll say, fire away. We're good to go for today. But if you look at the gain logs, that has not been as true recently. He has just 11 combined strikeouts over his past two starts. And that comes after he left early due to an injury while swinging a bat. I think it was against the Cubs. So you could look at those two games. 11 total strikeouts in two games coming off an injury. That's a pretty big concern. And we do have to dive in and decide, OK, is this going to stick or was that just a blip on the radar? I don't see many big differences between DeGrom and those two starts versus the three stars before that. He is still throwing very hard. The velocity is great. He is still getting decent movement on his pitches. So I don't think it's like a sticky stuff type thing with DeGrom. And the swinging strike rate for DeGrom was at least 18.2% in both of those starts. He just didn't convert them into third strikes as often as usual for whatever reason that may be. I am inclined to believe this is a little hiccup and that he'll spring back to life soon, potentially as soon as today. We went 88 pitches the last time out. That was his most since he returned from the IL. And I bet that he's probably back to a full go once again for tonight. So there are a lot of things here at DeGrom. We've got the presence of Coors Field. We've got potentially concerns around those past two starts and concerns around injuries. That makes it possible we could get to DeGrom at a popularity discount from where he would usually be. So I'm into it. I definitely have my concerns, but I still want to be here. I would say that DeGrom is going to be my top guy for today. He is not in a tier of his own by any means given the concerns, but I will still have him as my top pitcher for today. I will have lower exposure to him than usual, but that's because I'm usually at like disgusting levels with DeGrom. So we'll cut back a little bit, but still be very high in him for today, despite the presence of Coors Field. Now the decision for who is number two comes down to Corbin Burns versus Fromber Valdez. And the answer to that all year has been Corbin Burns. He's been awesome, but he seems to be one of the guys trending down most due to the sticky stuff enforcement. And I think that makes it a legit question for today. If we look at the three starts for Burns, since his movement started to decrease, he has a 3.59 skill interactive ERA with a 29% strikeout rate. Those numbers are very good in a vacuum, but they're not the great numbers that he had before. His skill interactive ERA was like 1.5 with a 40% strikeout rate, pretty massive deviation. And they've also come against punching bag level opponents. Those three starts for Burns have come against the pirates who we'll face again tonight, the Rockies, and then the Rockies again. Those are two of the worst offenses in baseball and Burns's numbers have been okay. But now he's facing the pirates for a second time in four starts. That's a concern. Valdez is facing Cleveland. And they love getting no hit by lefties. Valdez is a very good pitcher. In six starts this year, Valdez has a 3.00 skill interactive ERA with just a 16% fly ball rate allowed. The only issue is that Valdez is not a big strikeout guy. He has a 23% strikeout rate across those starts, but he has had pop games. He had 10 and 8, both against Boston, and they're a good team versus lefties. The overall numbers are low, but he has upside. So the question here is, do we go with the higher upside guy in Burns who is trending down in a repeat matchup? Or do we go with the lower upside but steadier pitcher right now? I think I'm actually going to go with Valdez here, which may seem counter to my usual process where I just set out for upside. But I think here, given all the factors combining, given the repeat matchup, given Burns trending down, given how good a real-world pitcher Valdez is, I think that I'm going to give the edge there. I will say that it is close, and you can make a case for either guy. I would give the slide edge to Valdez. So among the studs for me, it is Degrom 1, Valdez 2, and Corbin Burns number 3. With that said, I might not wind up ranking either Valdez or Burns' second overall. They're second among the studs, but they might not be second overall, because I actually do like a value play for today, and I want to stack Coris Field. So let's give Ian Anderson some shine here as potentially the number 2 pitcher on the Slade. He's facing Degrom at home, and it's not a terrible matchup by any means. The Mets have a 93 WRC plus against, right? These are getting better, getting healthier. So I think they will outperform that 93 WRC plus going forward, but I wouldn't deem them to be a superimposing matchup. So I think Anderson deserves a look here if you want to save some salary. Anderson's movement has gone down over his past five starts, so that's worth noting, but it hasn't mattered too much. He's still pitching really well. In that five-start sample, Anderson has a 3.49 skill interactive ERA with a 27% strikeout rate. Those two numbers specifically are actually better than his full season marks, and it's while he's still keeping the fly ball rate allowed relatively low. He's been a strength for Anderson back last year too. He's always been good at that, and he has kept that despite the decreased movement on his pitches. We did see Anderson face the Mets two starts ago, which is annoying because it means they are familiar with what he's throwing, but now he's at home. He allowed just three hits over five and a third innings in that matchup. So I really wish that this were not effectively a repeat matchup. I would be higher on him if that were not the case. The one guy here who is not in a repeat matchup is Valdez, but I do think that the salary savings here are enough to at least relieve the concerns a tiny bit and make Anderson a high-ranking pitcher for today. He is $8,400. I think that I'm willing to go here from not going to Grom because it allows me to stack course fields. So to me, I think my favorite two routes for today are to Grom and then just figure out hitting or Anderson and stacking course field. Those two might wind up being my favorite options for today. So if I were ranking pitchers after considering a salary to Grom one, Anderson two, Valdez three, Corbin burns number four for today. Let's talk about some stacks here and stuff things off with course field because again, course that's a significant factor for today and how we analyze Jacob to Grom. The Cardinals are facing Antonio sends a Taylor at course field. He is getting better. He's had a couple more strikeouts recently, which is big for him because the bad at ball numbers always tend to be less than for sends a Taylor. So if he can get more strikeouts, he'd be a lot better pitcher. I don't think that those strikeouts are enough to avoid stacking against him at course though. We're up to nine starts now on sends a Taylor with more forcing fastballs. His strikeout rate is up to 17%. It was typically closer to 12%. So that's a pretty big shift. The fly ball rate allowed for sends a Taylor hasn't really budged still 27%. That's a good thing. It's better than average by a good amount. Those are not bad numbers. They're good enough where I wouldn't stack against sends a Taylor anywhere outside of course field. But in course is a different issue. That's true. Even with the Cardinals being in offense, I don't tend to target. I tend to use pitchers against them more than stacking them. So I am willing to go here. And I think they great out well. And I do think that the Cardinals, despite my general reservations with their offense or a team, we should feel okay turning to fourth day. I do think that the Anderson plus Coors build is pretty attractive for me personally. And the salaries are not too bad for the Cardinals. The obvious outlets are Nolan Aronato revenge game, by the way, facing the Rockies. We have Paul Goldschmidt too. But Dylan Carlson and Tyler O'Neill are not all that restrictive. O'Neill can strike out too much for sure. But sends a Taylor doesn't get many of those. He can also swipe a bag. Carlson has a 40% fly ball right versus righties. We had O'Neill at $3,800. Carlson is $3,300. Paul DeYong might be slowly kind of trending up since he came back. So he's $3,500. Tommy Edmond also $3,500. I tend to use him more versus lefties than righties. He's also sends a Taylor has some weird diverse splits too. So check out DeYong, Edmond, Yadir Molina, Carlson, O'Neill, all those guys. Pretty easy to get to. And honestly, like Goldschmidt and Aronato aren't too bad either. So I do think the Cardinals are a team we can turn to for today, even if it does mean passing up on Jacob DeGraw. As far as our second stack goes, I prefer to stack the Reds versus righties than lefties. We get access to Jesse Winker. We get access to Tyler Naikwin, Joey Vado, et cetera, et cetera. But they still got some decent pieces who can hit well versus lefties, specifically when it comes to the Valley Department. And they're facing Ryan Weathers tonight. So I think that we can stack the Reds once again here. Weathers coming back up from triple A for the Padres. He made two starts down there and he was pretty much in line with what he did in the Majors, not overpowering. He had an 11.3% swinging strike rates. And now he comes back up to the Majors. I think we can expect a similar outcome with Weathers this time to what happened when he was first up with the Padres. The results were good. He had a 2.470 array. That's awesome. You'll take that every time. But there is a reason he was sent down. It's because the peripherals were more troubling and there was likely regression coming for Weathers. He increases slider usage over his final six outings in the big leagues. He had a 5.12 skill interactive ERA with just a 14% strikeout rate. He also did not suppress hard contact the same way he did earlier in the year. His hard hit rate allowed his 44% with a 40% fly ball rate. Now he is pitching in Cincinnati, which is a really rough spot to be for someone of his profile. So I think we can stack the Reds here today and feel pretty okay about what they bring to the table. When talking about the Reds vs. Lefties, we talked a lot about Tyler Stevenson and REC Day's Aquino. I love Stevenson. If he plays a catcher today, lock him in. A bit wary of Aquino though. He has played just one complete game the entire year. In his past four starts, he is left in the 9th inning, 8th inning, 7th, and 7th respectively. The maximum played appearance in the game for Aquino is 4 and he had just 2 in his past two starts. That's pretty tough. He can go yard in one played appearance and pay off, but it is concerning to me when guys leave games early and Aquino has been doing that consistently ever since he started starting games more often. So I like Stevenson. I'm definitely on board there. You don't need to gloss entirely over Aquino because again, he could go yard. He could go yard twice. But I would keep exposure to him much lower than I would if he were a full go. So go all in on Stevenson, go in on Eugenio Suarez, be a little bit wary of REC Day's Aquino off of the chance that he does leave early for a pinch hitter, defense replacement, anything like that. For our third stack, there is actually only one park on tonight's slate that is a better pitching park than it is a hitting park. That is Pittsburgh for the Pirates and the Brewers. So stacking here is less than ideal given that every other park on the slate is a good one for hitting. I still think that we want to go here for tonight. The Brewers are facing Will Crow. Crow has struggled from a results perspective this year. He has a 6.50 ERA. The peripherals are not as bad as that, but they're also not great. His skill interactive ERA is 4.92. The one thing that Crow has done well is keep opposing teams out of the air. His fly ball rate allowed is 33%, which is better than average. The problem is that the batted ball suppression skills have been slipping of late. He's one of the guys with decreased movement on his pitches over the past three starts. In that time, he's allowed a 48% hard hit rate. And those starts have come against Milwaukee, Cleveland, and St. Louis. They're all below average teams versus righties. And that's reassuring because he's facing Milwaukee once again tonight. In that first start against the Brewers, Crow did get eighth strikeouts. That's very much not the norm, though, and not what I would expect going forward. And now they're seeing him for a second time in about three weeks. So I think they'll have a better handle this time around than they did last time. The Brewers still are not a good offense, despite their 14-run outburst or whatever it was yesterday. They have an 86 WRC plus against righties, but I have enough faith in them here to stack them versus will Crow for tonight. It does help that we got at least one salary saver here. I've been on the Omar Narváez train for a while. He is still $2,600. William Domes and Luis Arias have some pop, and they can fill your middle infield slots. Also, I will say Kessen here has strikeout rates since returning is 29%. That's high. It's above average. But for him, it's actually not too terrible. So I don't mind this team at all. It is a rough park, but that's not quite enough to push me off them. So I would say check out the Brewers, especially Narváez for some value. And if you need to fill some weird slots like second base and shortstop, Domes, Arias, both guys you could turn to at those positions. Let's finish up here with things to watch for today. I want to see what Luis Castillo can do tonight. I'm not sure I'm going to be there on using him in DFS. And the big reason is the Padres did just see him. He faced him in San Diego back on June 20th. He pitched really well. Now it's a repeat matchup. They're not a super high strikeout team. They've got some power hitters. So Castillo's been better. He weirdly is getting more movement on his forcing fastball recently, not less. So I'm keeping an eye on him because I think that that's very interesting. But I just don't like the spot enough to pull the trigger. He is low sour at $80,000, but if we're looking for a value play, I'd prefer Anderson. They're both the repeat matchups. I just feel better about Anderson's numbers right now than I do about Castillos. They are not in my top three for stacking, but they're in play. They're facing Meryl Kelly, who's been getting better recently. The Giants, despite the close roof tonight, get a park factor upgrade and leaving San Francisco. And Kelly's not perfect. The Giants scored four runs against him in San Francisco three starts ago. So I think they could do it again. The improvements for Kelly keep me from slobbering over the Giants, but I will say that they are pretty interesting in a team that I am very willing to stack for today after those top three teams. And as always, the final one, do you want to mention that I'm on board a stack in the Astros? Despite Matt Harvey being weirdly competent against them last night, they're facing Jason Mejia, and his strikeout rate in the rotation is 20% with a 4.49 skill interactive ERA. The reason that the Astros are hiring stacks is due to their salary. Mejia does a good job of keeping teams on the ground. There is Coors, and the wind is blowing in at Cleveland as well. So there's some factors keeping me from going all in, but I do still think the Astros are worth a look for tonight. Okay, let's do our Dinger calls for today, for this Thursday. As always, one boring one and one fun one, and we're going to keep them both on the exact same team. I mentioned before that Ryan Weathers have an issues recently with suppressing hard contact. So let's go all in on the powerful right-handed Reds for today starting off with Nick Castellanos. Castellanos is just a tremendous hitter. He's been among the best guys in baseball all this entire year. He has 16 home runs this year. So I'll go Castellanos for the boring one, and then Tyler Stevenson as the fun one. Fun is subjective here because, you know, maybe he is too chalky, $2,500, but hey, he's a catcher, lower salary, five home runs so far this year. I think that one's fun. So if Stevenson's in there, he'll be my call. If he's not in there, we'll give a different call in the Q&A today, the Reds lineup is out at like 10 o'clock in the morning, it seems like, so we'll certainly have the line to look at. So swing back by for that later on, but the home run calls as of now, Nick Castellanos and Tyler Stevenson. That is all that we have here for today on the solo shot. As mentioned that we are back with you once again later on today for the 4 p.m. Q&A, swing by the Fandle YouTube, Twitch, Facebook or Twitter channels and get your questions in about tonight's slate for MLB DFS. Hopefully by then we have some good weather, we can update, but we shall see how that goes. And of course, Aaron Dolan will be with you once again at 4.30 to take your questions around tonight's NBA game. Also make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast, we're an Apple podcast, Spotify, Stitcher, Google podcast, whatever it may be, you can find us, NASCAR podcast coming up tomorrow, PGA back next week as well and UFC for the McGregor fight. Be with us next week also. If you have questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the Fandle Podcast Network at Fandle Podcast. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your MLB DFS lineups for tonight. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. This has been the solo shot right here on the Fandle Podcast Network.