 Good morning, good afternoon, or you could have a name, distinguished guest and research person. Welcome to workshop on the role of science in the development of forest reference emission level. And let me introduce myself first. My name is Zita, I'm a research student in FIFOR, also a PhD student at IPV University. In Brigade, I would like to be your MC. So first I would like to greet the honorable Dr. Imam Hidayat, head of the biological and environmental research organization from National Research and Innovation Agency, or BREAM. The honorable Dr. Robert Nasi, Director General of FIFOR, and the honorable research person, also the honorable workshop invited guests and participants. Ladies and gentlemen, please allow me first to read the agenda for today. So from the first agenda, we will have introduction from Professor Daniel Muriazo, FIFOR Principal Scientist, and it will be continued by the opening remarks from Dr. Robert Nasi, FIFOR Director General, also Dr. Imam Hidayat, as a head of the biological and environmental research organization, BREAM. And today we will have three course sessions. Session one is Indonesia's second after all 2022, session two is the National Initiatives, and session three is the Team Global like Minded. And at the last, we will have a wrap up session. And for all attendees, please check the chat box if you have any questions, comments, or ideas, and you can write your question or comment both in English or Indonesia, that's okay. And also, can we meet your audio during the session so that everyone could enjoy the workshop and focus on the session. At the end of the session, before we leave the room, organizer will share post-event surveilling. Thank you. And now before we begin the opening session, we will have photo group session. Please turn on your video, prepare yourself, and give your best mark. I will count from three, two, one, once more, three, two, one, thank you, and you may turn off your video. So now we will move to the first agenda, introduction by Professor Daniel Murdi Erso. Professor Daniel is currently holds a position as a principal scientist with C4 and a professor at IPB University. But Daniel, you have 10 minutes for your introduction over the year. Thank you. Thank you, Sita. My name is Daniel Murdi Erso. I'm organizing with colleagues at C4 and Brinn at this very important workshop that is attended well in the registration. I've got the report that will be attended by more than 200 people, but we still have more people to come. I think as I can see here only 89 yet. So I hope more people will be coming. First of all, I would like to thank to the, to Brinn especially, because this workshop is taking place because of their support. I can see today, Dr. Meigo Pinandito with us, one of the deputies in Brinn, which is related to the very topic we are discussing today. Dr. Meigo is responsible for policy and development. So I think what we are talking about today is very much in his area within the Brinn context. We are also fortunate to have Dr. Iman Hidayat, who is replacing the head of Brinn, Dr. Laksana Handoko. Dr. Iman Hidayat is the chair for environmental and biological sciences. Again, this topic is very important for our future collaboration with Brinn. So we are very fortunate to have other colleagues also from Brinn who are going to join us in the discussion today. So this workshop was planned quite long time ago, but we have problem with COVID and everything. And finally, we have the welcoming response from Brinn that we can have this workshop with them. And we immediately plan this workshop in order to be able to achieve our objective, which is to report what we've been doing in developing FRL, to be used by countries, by Indonesia, especially in the future, how this technical, very important technical thing, which improve the credibility of forest reference emission level in the future. So this is a very highly demanded by many countries. So we also collaborate with colleagues in many countries, especially those who are hosting pitland in the countries, including Democratic Republic of Congo, and then also in Peru. They have not been doing this kind of thing before. So this exercise will be very much used not only by Indonesia, but also many other countries. Indonesia in itself has been very much leading in this area. Indonesia has been submitting its second FRL, which is today we are going to hear from the technical team of FRL of Indonesia, which is going to be represented by the advisor of the government, Dr. Arif Darmawan will be with us in the first session to share what has been done in the second FRL. And then we are going to respond on that and share the possible improvement for the future FRL. So this session, this event is not only improving scientific knowledge about FRL development, but we are also engaging very much with financial institution because that will be the next thing to do if countries or subnational level initiator will be trying to develop project and emission reduction. They need to know how the financial stream would be. That's why we are very fortunate today to have PPDLHA, the Indonesian Environmental Fund, to tell us about the detail of this financial flow in connection with the carbon economic value and new legislation within the country about how to link that carbon economic values into the climate change arena. So that will be share in the second session and we are fortunate to have a local developer also Jambi province Rudy Shaff is very experienced with the local community. He'll be sharing with us his experience to do that. So all in all, this session really is an exchanging experience how we do from scientific point of view and also from financial point of view and how the bottom up activities approach can have been done and how he can improve that in the future. So we, C4 and other partners from scientific point of view really approach to bring to see this opportunity to help countries and subnational level how to do that in the future. So we will be bringing this up together today and see for the future what would be best to do it. That's why we are very much looking forward to see the role of science in helping these processes. So last but not least, I'm particularly very much hoping that colleagues from BRIN will be jumping into the discussion in the last session. Ibu Yuni, I can see you've been there and we've been working together for a long time and also other colleagues in BRIN, Ibu Erna who's been working on the remote sensing arena that will be very useful for our future collaboration. So without further ado, I would like to encourage you as organizer of this webinar to really exchange your ideas and this is not something bureaucratic but something very scientific that BRIN is like to really engage with partners in the future. BRIN is a new organization that is going to be shared with us what is their interest and ideas by Iman Hidayat Teta. Thank you very much. Over to you, back Sita. Thank you Pa Danil and let's move for the next agenda. We will have opening remarks complete by Dr. Robert Nasi from SIPA Director General and the floor is yours Robert for 10 minutes. Thank you Sita while I'm trying to share my screen I will just give you the warning I mean I'll probably less qualified but I'm not talking about forest reference emission level but I know a little bit about C4Ecraft and I think it would be interesting for you also to know who we are especially for our colleagues from BRIN that I thank very much for being there and also for the other colleagues. C4Ecraft in fact it's a research group and a perfect quarter in Nairobi. The Global Landscape Forum Platform and the Resilient Landscape Initiative and our purpose is ready to deliver actionable solution on the role of trees forest and landscape in solving the global crisis related to land degradation, biodiversity loss, climate change and sustainable food system and value changing. We are working to solve this five global challenge that I've just said that in fact are interrelated and the important point is that forest, trees, agroforestry system are really a place where all these challenges meet and where you can have a significant contribution by acting on one element into more than one of these challenges. Our research effective expertise is organized around the following topics. We have three engineering resources by the university usable gin bank tree planting material and genetics. Sustainable Value Chain and Investment which is about what all the financing all the development that may affect forest or be affected by forest or plantation or co co co fee all the tree value chain. Climate Change Energy and Lookup on Development which is very central for this issue on different topic like mitigation adaptation and the synergy between the two and I will have a more detail on that. Soil and land health issue of degradation and land neutrality, degradation neutrality and finally but not least governance, equity and well-being because a lot of the issue we are facing are definitely not technological in nature but political and human related. So we have an important element on that. We have a worldwide presence as I said we have at water in Indonesia and in Kenya but we also have activities in all the country that you see in green and people there since we were created we have invested about 2 billion dollars in research we have about 740 staff in 30 countries 122 active partnership and we produce more than 25,000 research products. In terms of Indonesia there is a map of Indonesia and the place where C4 one of the legal entity has protected the way so it's 19 provinces about A's climate change trade and investment food and nutrition, sustainability governance and gender so you can see that we are almost everywhere so it's true for ICAF and these are the research priority in color and the place where ICAF has been active since 1993 in Indonesia so we have a wide coverage of activities in Indonesia covering a lot of the topic that are relevant to the ministry and brain in terms of investment in and for Indonesia we have spent more than 200 million dollars in terms of research investment since ICAF Indonesia, Southeast Asia and C4 established in 1993 and although our mind is global Indonesia has always enjoyed a significant share of our investment in both research and personal and we have run 152 forestry and agro forestry project in Indonesia since 1993 now in terms of climate change our research capacity and engagement is to deliver an ambitious climate policy and action across scale looking at the increased resilience and adaptive capacity of people in the ecosystem mitigation of land use based emissions that generate an environmental and social benefit and transition to a circular by economy to untragated production of food by energy renewable biomaterial our work is very much focus also on gender and social equity based on regular performance assessment so that we provide evidence based on policy decision in terms of C4 and ICAF have an important impact on the agenda through various program including the global comparative study on red plus that has been running since 2009 and the ICAF alternative to slash and burn program partnership for the tropical forest margin that has been running even longer there has been a Swiss partnership on social forest in climate and the sustainable wetland adaptation mitigation program that is run by our dear Pa Daniel so we have quite a lot of an influence in terms of how do you provide effective, efficient and equitable red plus and other mitigation of adaptation solution for climate change here are some examples of our policy impact the green climate fund sector guideline ecosystem service and forestry war bank, enable fund fact dialogue work on even FCC with the step wise MRV refinement of methodology for IPCC the ASEAN agro forestry guideline in Indonesia the red plus strategy the AFRAIL refinement that we are discussing here and Peru the legal recognition on wetland UNN prison forest monitoring capacity Vietnam in payment for environmental services and carbon rights and what I want to state is the importance of critical importance of partnership and I've just taken an example at the national level but this is also at the sub national level and we have strong partnership in Gambia, in Vietnam in Indonesia of course in Peru in Côte d'Ivoire these are only examples given our organization we could not work without our partner and they are totally part or design of our project and implementation now back to the topic there are definitely critical in any monitoring evaluation process to achieve the Paris Agreement because if you don't know where you are something from there is very little chance that you provide anything in terms of trends or whatever is happening and here we our scientists have made critical contribution in these MRV and threat processes like the development of IRT emission factor identification and quantification of missing sources quantification of non CO2 guases like methane or nitrate incorporation of mangrove soil carbon following IPCC guideline and improvement in uncertainty analysis and here are some examples in terms of the IPCC guideline where we have been instrumental and you will see Chris Taylor watch representing also in this workshop in terms of changing the guideline for natural GIG inventory and then a subset of publication that were produced by our scientists and partner Daniel Christel and other in reputable journal feeding the agenda and providing evidence based science based information for the policy maker and for the decision maker and we would like to acknowledge and thank our funder for this important work and that's the Norway International Climate Policy Initiative Nikfi and the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and I will stop here so back to you Okay, thank you Robert for your opening remarks and the next page is opening remarks by Dr. Imam Hidayat Dr. Imam Hidayat is current head of the Biological and Environmental Research Organization National Research and Innovation Agency or Baden Reset Pasi Nasional Please welcome Dr. Imam Hidayat for your opening remarks Thanks MC I will not show the presentation actually A lot of work I see has been done by SIPOL Honorable Director of SIPOL Mr. Robert Nasi and Padha Nil Principal Scientist of SIPOL Honorable guest for today's workshop speakers and all participants of today's workshop National online workshop on the role of science in the development of forest reference condition level hosted by SIPOL Good afternoon everyone Firstly I would like On behalf of head of National Research and Innovation Agency Brin Dr. Lasana Trihandoko I would like to express our deep and sincere appreciation and gratitude to all the committee members for today's workshop Climate change this is the very hot main topic of the current workshop now is becoming very popular and important words and issue not only for scientists and NVO working on environment as well as for conservationist and naturalist but this first is also now becoming very important for politicians or policy maker or even for businessmen and now also common people also more aware regarding climate change and its effect to where they live and our home all of us here I believe everyone here are the frontline and everyone here is very concerned about the climate change effect of our life why perhaps or maybe some of us still want to see the polar bear in active areas or we want to enjoy the colourful coral reefs or because we still need clean water or fresh air in our life or even we still need our rainforest to support our life especially in Indonesia therefore climate change is important for us here especially for Indonesia citizens and all around the world and therefore we all have the obligation to take care to provide a comfortable world to our future generation therefore mitigation of climate change effect to our home is our duty one of the main point to mitigate the climate change is today point of meeting there is the forest reference level or forest reference emission level because this is the step for countries need to take to benefit from red blast action not only reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation but also this include conservation of forest carbon stout sustainable management of forest and enhancement of forest carbon stout red or red blast is poise to be the primary international mechanism with the potential to reduce the carbon emissions therefore adequate and predictable financial and technology support for developing such reference level is important and necessary and today all of us here will discuss about this the national research and innovation agency in your governmental institution that integrate all previous research institution in Indonesia like LIPI BPPT, LAPAN, BATAN and other research institute in several ministries in Indonesia now BRIN is the only government research institute and BRIN definitely have an obligation have a pivotal role in supporting and providing scientific evidence to the implementation of forest reference emission level action all perhaps not only being BRIN but all the scientific community including NGO Indonesia also has a pivotal role in red transition from a policy framework to an implementable mechanism through the development of tools for measuring performance distributing cost and benefits and achieving the greatest atmospheric and environmental benefits because the scale of this issue requires need integration of government and multistakeholder participation as we know in the frail implementation the distribution of incentives that will effectively reduce and forest degradation is generally predicated on the capacity of accurately assess and monitor changes in forest carbon and so on therefore estimation of gross emission from land use land use change will depend on the area deforestation disturb for re-growing and the density of carbon store in this areas multiple methodologies need to be developed to measure changes in forest carbon at different scales using a variety of course technologies and improvements in accuracy and efficiency also has to be made by the scientists or scientific community engage with this process in Indonesia maybe all of you are here now several gaps that must be addressed in the frail calculation especially possibly land cover definition or categorical classes issue such as peak land deforestation area, mangrove area forest degradation land use change and so on in this case Breen as the only government research institution that houses researcher in the forestry and conservation fields Breen will fully support the implementation of frail not only by providing researchers to work on it but also by providing open access research facilities or research infrastructure for all stakeholders Breen also will provide will support the research funds through various scheme at least around seven research grant scheme that can be accessed by all stakeholders in Indonesia not only by researcher from Breen and Breen also in regarding on this work sorry but Iman you only have one minute okay funding for capacity building for the researcher work on it so ladies and gentlemen to handle the climate change and we have to unite and work together because we are committed by 20-30 countries in the world want to ensure all people enjoy peace prosperity Indonesia must mobilize resources, institutional knowledge technical expertise across our government private sector, civil society and research university to health today so finally I would like to add my best wish for all of you successful and fruitful workshop and many thanks to all organizers I'm looking forward to an excellent meeting and discussion with great scientists today from different background to find solution and sharing new and exciting perspective for the implementation of frail section thank you very much Iman for your opening remarks and now we will move to the first session Indonesia's 2nd April 2022 and decision will be moderated by Dr. Sigeet Sefmito he is a researcher at National University of Singapore he specializes in tropical mangrove ecology, blue carbon mangroves and climate change mitigation and mangrove ecosystem functions under human induced disturbance and climate change offer to you but Sigeet, you have 30 minutes for your session okay, thank you Sita yes good afternoon, good morning good evening everyone Sigeet Sefmito so today I will be moderating this current session aims to provide the opportunity for us to understand more about the development and the improvement of the forest reference emission level particularly when Indonesia already submitted 2nd April this year and to discuss that we have 3 speakers line up the first one is the Arif Dharmawan from University of Lampung he will be describing or discussing the development and the improvement for the 2nd April and he is also replacing Dr. Saiful Awan from the director of the greenhouse gas inventory Ministry of Environment and Forestry and then the 2nd line up speaker is Krista Hargulaj she is a new scientist with CIFOR she will be describing more about the improvement of the AFRL and then the 3rd speaker is Dr. Svaldo Karilo he is a statistician and he has basic knowledge expertise on the statistical particularly in applying the uncertainty analysis for the AFRL So, without further ado I think it's time for Arif Dharmawan to present this material Arif, are you there? So, on this session will be presentation and hopefully in the end of the session we can have the time for the discussion So, I will notify you when the time is about 6 minutes Ya, thank you Good afternoon everyone here in Jakarta time Good night maybe in other time or good morning in other time So my name is Arif actually I replace director our director for inventory of greenhouse gas of the Ministry of Forestry as our leader actually in this undertaking actually many of my colleague as the team of AFRL also attending this meeting I see Professor Haruni and Pak Solihin and Pak Daniel also in the team but ya, I just told by Pak Solihin this morning so I'm sorry if my presentation here is not too convincing for you but actually this is what happened to with the process ya So, I will share you the process of the AFRL within our team I hope 7 minutes will be use ya Okay, so my presentation is about the development of Indonesia's second forest reference emission level and then in the minute So, for the background the forestry sector shares the largest contribution to the NDC's emission reduction target that is 17.2% out of 29% ya using our research means more than 50% ya from 29% using our own resources and 24.1% out of 41% both of them more than 50% means that the forestry sector shares more than 50% contribution to the NDC's with both using our own resources and with international support So, to achieve this fairly large forestry sector target Indonesia undertakes various mitigation actions in the forestry sectors particularly through red implementation and we all know that Indonesia's first trial has gone through a technical assessment process in 2016 and luckily I also involved in this undertaking and has been legally as a reference in measuring performance to obtain result-based payment for the period 2013 to 2020 and Indonesia actually has how can I say receive ya the result-based payment from the green climate fund I don't know it's about 100 100 million USD I don't know the exact number and it's contribution or significance for achieving the reduced emission from deforestation and forestry tradition from 2016 to 2011 2016 to 2017 and then now also we are in the process of gaining technical how can I say technical analysis ya from the DUR or our second result-based payment ya from 2018 to 2020 so based on this basically 2013 and 2020 we use this first trail and then after 2020 we need to have a new trail ya so that's why Indonesia's second trail includes most of the improvement plan in the first trail by considering new data improved methodology and broader scope of anthropogenic activities and this second trail will be used as a reference for measuring red plus from 2020 to 2030 so it's also in line with the NDCs so the first trail and the second trail so this is mainly the different ya in the activity data the first trail is only used deforestation and forest degradation in the second trail we add deforestation deforestation deforestation in enhancement of forest carbon stop in mineral and organic soils with fires and emission from conversion of mangrove forest in the pool carbon in the first trail we only input the above ground biomass and emission from feed decomposition and in the second trail more pool carbon which is above ground biomass below ground biomass, dead wood litter and soil organic carbon although not all for all red plus activities and in the gas in the first trail we only use CO2 in the second trail we use CO2 and non-CO2 emissions that is the CH4 methane and nitrogen oxide N2O from forest and land fire activities and for the gross and net emission in the first trail we use gross emission but in the second trail we try to apply net emission approach in the fifth topic for the wetland emission tier we only use tier 1 ya, although we assume it as tier 2 because most of the emission factors come from Indonesia for feed decomposition and in the second trail we use tier 2 emission factors for feed decomposition, feed fires and also mangrove conversion and for the last for the uncertainty assessment in the first trail we only use a very simple route uncertainty from activity data and emission factors and in the second trail we apply adjusted areas for activity data using sample based area estimation following OLOPSON 2014 and Monte Carlo Simulation so this most of the difference ya most of the update in the first and the second trail and what about ya progress submission January 10 and then review appeal to May and then resubmit May 30 May last May ya 2020 ya 2022 after reviewing and then was involved in the second trail progress ya mostly this undertaking lead by the DGCC and then Results Institution, University Consultant and NDO are assisting this work ya by the facilitation of DGCC and what is in the document so we have 8 chapters there this is still ya sample draft ya the cover draft in the document we have introduction improvement from previous submission definitions, area activities and full cover data methodology and prescures and then result of the construction of forest reference and transmission level and then description of policies and plan and their implication to the constructed forest reference level and also the opportunities for improvement so this is the last I think the key message from this work ya the first is working with many institutions that need extra time but when the process can be lead proportionately it has many insight and also hand to finish the work and if you can improvement has been made by the second frail by considering new data improve technology and broader scope of anthropogenic activities and frail and red class in general has many significant progress on how Indonesia provide improve quality data and also networking ya especially expert academicians and researchers on forest monitoring so that's all from me I hope it will speak with the time oh, terima kasih ya, terima kasih it was a very nice summary on the improvement of the second level of Indonesia that already submitted to the NFK policy this year so the second speaker will be Kristal Kristal, you want to present can you share my slides please the assistant share my slides can someone okay, thanks so seven minutes and also for the participant if you have question just put it in the chat box and we will discuss later on thank you, next one please so this is a presentation that we put together with Vasoli Hinmanuri so I'm going to go a little bit more into the details of what has just been presented sorry, regarding the comparison between the 2016 frail and the 2022 FRL, next please so just as a background for those who are not familiar there are five type of activities that can be considered in red plus and in this presentation in the case of Indonesia we are going to focus on these three type of activities reduction of deforestation reduction of forest degradation and enhancement of forest carbon stocks next one please as defined by the IPCC there are six carbon pools that can be considered above ground and below ground live biomass dead wood litter, soil and wood products and three main greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide so if we have a look at the first activity which is considered in red plus by the government of Indonesia and if we compare the two the frail and the FRL in terms of activity data the main improvement is that now we have gross deforestation but that considers post conversion land cover class which means this is a great improvement and it's much better also than net deforestation it also includes associated fires therefore in this new frail there is an accounting of net emissions since as mentioned earlier there is a post conversion land cover class stocks and emission factors considered in terms of pool so here there is the below ground biomass which is considered accepting some exceptions to exclude double accounting dead wood and litter also only for fires and the soil in the case of wetlands for pits and mangrove soils and so of course a potential improvement for next iteration would be to add more pools that are relevant for national greenhouse gases emissions in terms of greenhouse gases in addition to what was accounted for in the previous frail now methane and nitrous oxide are taken into account but this is only for fire next one in terms of the activity related to reduction of emissions from forest degradation in the present frail forest there is a consideration of one level of degradation of forest one level of forest degradation and associated fires and a further improvement could be to disaggregate degradation into two levels in terms of pools it's basically the same history or picture as we just saw for deforestation except that for soil we don't have a consideration of mangrove soils in terms of forest degradation and in terms of greenhouse gases it's also the same as for deforestation for enhancement of forest carbon stocks was not previously considered so this is a main improvement in the accounting and so at the moment what is considered is forest gain so non-forest to forest conversion and a potential improvement would be to consider the transition secondary to primary forest at the moment the pools that are considered are above and below ground by life biomass and the soil well only for pit soil and the gas for this first inclusion of enhancement of forest carbon stocks is CO2 Next one please in terms of the improvement of carbon stock data in greenhouse gas emission factors so there has been work done on the national forest inventory and how the data from this inventory was used by updating, by using by applying recent tier 1 and tier 2 alumetric equations and so in this FRL there is also inclusion of carbon stocks for non-forest classes Regarding emission factors there is CO2 emission factor for pit decomposition that was developed by the technical team however this updated emission factor doesn't follow the IPCC computation method when carbon inputs to the pit have been omitted and then there has been an improvement of the emission factors for fire and pit fire on pit sorry, next one please so the specific improvements for wetlands are the inclusion of emissions from pit fires and the emissions from mangrove conversion to aquaculture and cultivated lands and a potential improvement for the next rail would be to consider emission reduction from rewetted pitlands and converted mangroves next one I thank you for your attention and would be very happy to answer your questions okay, thank you Krista already in presentation and the topic is really follow up with the previous presentation by Parik Permawan on the further improvement AFL so next we're going to have the presentation from Dr. Svaldo Karilo about the another improvement of AFL but focus on the uncertainty analysis but go ahead Svaldo okay well good morning good evening and good night everyone well I would like to share some topics related to analyzing uncertainties in the development of the forest reference emission level so well at context I would like to comment that the annex to decision 12 of COP17 establish that the information of the forest reference emission level should be guided by the most recent APCC guidelines and well according to the APCC uncertainties estimates an essential element of the GSE inventory so it is very important to to elaborate of the estimated forest reference of visual level focus on the carbon accounting but on the other hand it is very important to quantify all sorts of uncertainties to combine uncertainties and to estimate uncertainties so what those uncertainties are first let's estimate GSE emission we need to multiply activity data times emission factors and when you estimate activity data it is usually to use maps and maps are models and these models have errors on the other hand when we estimate emission factors we here we use samples and models and once again these have errors so when we estimate the GSE emission well it is expected to, it is expected there are errors in the estimation of emission and removals and these errors expressed in percentage are known as uncertainties that's why it is very important to quantify these several sources of uncertainties when we elaborate a forest reference emission level but I would like to emphasize the point why it is important to quantify uncertainties for a frail first because it is a good practice to come as far as possible all sorts of uncertainty and on the other hand it is because the quantification of uncertainty is a requirement in several methodological frameworks for example for the green climate phone for it is required to quantify uncertainty and there is a score depending on the level of uncertainty reported in the frail but on the other hand also there are other base payment initiatives like FTPF of your carbon phone there is a reserve reserve buffer that depends on the level of uncertainty this is why also it is very important to quantify and also when we do the uncertainty analysis we have the opportunity to review the complete process that we follow to elaborate the forest reference emission level so when we implement uncertainty analysis we need to go back and we can review if we are using adequate methods and models and we need to go in deep and a deep understanding of the approach we are using or when we have reviewed the methods and models we go back and it is necessary to review the realistic assumption that we are using to elaborate the forest reference emission level and in particular to review how we are going to ensure to provide bias and finally when we have reviewed the realistic assumption we go back to review the scope of the available information so when we do this uncertainty analysis we have the opportunity to review all these methods assumption and methods inputs available to elaborate the forest reference emission level to address a comprehensive uncertainty analysis of the forest reference emission level so first we need to prepare bias then we need to quantify the uncertainty of emission factors and activity data and then we combine uncertainties and to combine uncertainties we can use several methods one of them is method one and the other one is method two I am going to talk more about it in next slides so in particular to others a comprehensive uncertainty analysis for the case of activity data well according to the method and guidelines document from Global Forest Observation Initiative it is recommended to estimate activity data based on samples and data combined with maps when we use activity data we can estimate activity data and prevent bias and estimate uncertainty by using a combination of samples and maps and as it was explained at the first of this session in the case of the second trial it was used a combination of maps and samples in that way we can prevent bias and we can estimate uncertainties on the other hand regarding to here you can see another very interesting picture in the last 7-8 years several scientific papers have been developed to improve the estimation of uncertainty of bias activity data and as you can see in this green bars and red bars in the recent years most there are more countries that are reporting activity data using a combination of maps and samples well this is because there are more information available about this methodologies Regarding to emission factors here I would like to comment that well there are several sources of uncertainties like those coming from measurements from the sampling and from models and of course there are several statistical methods to estimate is one of these sources of uncertainties Finally, I would like to comment that for combining uncertainty there are according to IPCC there are two methods one of them is the simple error propagation equation but there are all the ones that is Monte Carlo simulation this is the most robust method that is suggested by the IPCC and it was the method used to combine uncertainty in the second trial about what is coming about uncertain analysis in the near future well once again I would like to emphasize that the use of Monte Carlo simulation is a requirement for several programs or several initiatives and also there are new sophisticated sample based methods to reduce uncertainty of activity data and also there are new methods and new efforts to try to remove the correlation between variables to reduce the uncertainties of emission factors and also there are new tools in development to implement in a more correct way and more comprehensive to implement a more comprehensive uncertainties in particular using Monte Carlo simulation and well thank you for your time Okay, thank you very much as follow for your presentation on the certainty to improve the uncertainty for the FL but also for the carbon based project at the scale Okay, I think we are now in the discussion session and we have really limited time maybe 5 minutes or less for discussion I can see a few questions for Crystal but I think Crystal already answer the question directly to the chat box but Crystal, if you would like to answer us quickly on the two questions that you're facing Yeah, I think there was a question about where to find information on carbon sink from the soil and making reference model alometrik so I think there is confusion here model alometrik help to quantify carbon stocks but if we want to quantify how much carbon is taken by the soil we need to use emission factors so there is a difference between what is a stock and what is a flux and so default emission factors are available in the wetland supplement of the IPCC and it doesn't consider natural systems I also put a reference to where to find this emission factor for undrained intact between forests and then Iman Basuki had a question regarding how accounting of fires in wetlands basically could improve the frail and so I just clarified that we need to account for emissions to establish the label which is before the implementation of a red scheme and apparently this is clear now to Iman Thanks Thank you Christelle so we have actually one or two minutes of the discussion session because this is the first session so if there is no other question may have one question for Parif so you are part of the team of the EFL the second EFL and also the first EFL so while also mentioning about the uncertainty could you elaborate more about how EFL being developed by including the new uncertainty analysis in the second EFL Thank you for the question actually the one that can answer is Asali Hindya but I only can answer the big picture in the first EFL we only use the error propagation that comes from the data and also emission factor and it's also very simple simple calculation for calculating the uncertainty and within this second EFL we use very complex very sophisticated method therefore calculating the uncertainty that's why I think the second EFL has very the second EFL has better touch in this uncertainty assessment even in in the very detail I also maybe cannot follow very very in the detail maybe my colleague can help me on this but that's the answer from me Pasigit Thank you and also probably the participants just know and hear about the EFL could you also like provide indication I can add maybe so related with the uncertainty analysis previously we use only error propagation but now we use the Monte Carlo simulation which also include some error propagation calculations but the most important thing is that we also include the uncertainty analysis the activity data so maybe Buanna later we can explain about that that we follow the Olafson approach to have the uncertainty of the activity data like deforestation, forest degradation which previously we only use the uncertainty of the land cover map so this is something significantly different so in addition to Mas Arif explain Thank you Pak Danil is raising hand Thank you Pasigit my question is going to Osvaldo you mentioned about those payment or methodological framework what is the implication if in your uncertainty analysis your EFL which is the product of emission factor and activity data are very uncertain are you getting less payment how do they calculate this or discount it okay well the first point is according to these methodological frameworks there are some requirements one of them is first you need to quantify uncertainties of activity data and emission factors and the other one is that you need to use Monte Carlo simulation to combine uncertainties in case those uncertainties are very high well in the case of I will turn my screen because I have this table and can you see okay for example in the case of green climate well if the uncertainty is smaller sorry smaller than 30% well you will get a score of 2 but if your total uncertainty is between 13 and 50 you will get a score of 1 and if you have an uncertainty higher 50% you will get a score of 0 but in the case of the green climate this is only a part of other items that are evaluated in the case of the fcpf of your carbon phone there is a reserval and this is this is the reserval buffer that will be discounted from emission production depending of the level of uncertainty but to answer your question Professor Daniel if you have an uncertainty higher than 100% the reserval buffer will be only 50% because there is a good understanding that well the uncertainty will be high in fact this is happening very quickly thank you Osvaldo it's a nice explanation so i think that's a wrap from the first session about the FL development and then FL improvement on Indonesia so we look forward the document will be available soon once the document is provided so i think we can move to the next session back to