 Welcome to Tick Mill's weekly market outlook for weekmen seeing the 16th of December with me Patrick Munnerley. In the US the main releases over the coming week will be Friday's round of figures for the Fed's preferred inflation gauge as well as spending and income growth during November. A soft retail sales control group could pretend a soft reading for overall consumer spending, and less components under-sampled by retail sales surprise higher. Income gains should remain solid given recent growth in payrolls and if that is paired with relatively soft consumption then the saving rate might pop higher after dipping to just 7.8% per month. For inflation the key will be the extent to which core PCE continues to track core CPI. Given core CPI was unchanged at 2.3% year over year in November, a constant spread could imply that core PCE will itself remain unchanged at 1.6% year over year, albeit there are different methodologies that might pose slightly more downside risks to the core PCE measure such as a higher weight on soft medical care. A round of industrial readings will include the start of another batch of regional manufacturing reports on the way to the next ISN manufacturing report. Empire and market PMI gauges will start it all off on Monday and then the volatile Philly Fed metric is slotted in for Thursday. Industrial output might pose a better print of miserable prior month but the trend is likely to remain weak. Fed speech should be fairly light especially after Fed Chair Powell's recent press conference. Governor Braynard speaks on Wednesday, voting regional presidents Rosengren Tuesday and Evans on Wednesday. From a technical perspective the dollar index had a torrid week testing down to trend line support in the 9660 area and with the announcement of the China and US phase one trade deal the dollar recovered strongly on Friday looking now for symmetry swing resistance back up at the monthly pivot at 97.98 so the 98 area and the new descendant trend line resistance to hold any upside that we may see this week and then we should see a further leg of downside to ultimately test the 96 level. Now if we do get any close above the trend line resistance in the symmetry swing resistance at 98 then we may see a further push higher to test up towards the 99 level. Whilst we're talking about the dollar let's check in with gold. Gold as highlighted in my chart of the day appears to be putting in a bullish reversal pattern similar to that that we witnessed in the spring of this year if we can break above the 1486 1490 resistance then we could see another leg higher in gold to test up towards the 1580 however any close below the 1430 area would negate this bullish view and suggest we do further work to the downside testing bids back down to the 1400 level. In Canada manufacturing sales in October will be reported on Tuesday. Drivers are mixed but the market sense is that there's likely a modest game with soft confidence of plus 0.3 per cent month over month. Wednesday we'll see CPI figures for November could see headline leap forward but with core readings remaining better behaved around 2% to 2.1 per cent year over year. The reasons behind a potential surge in headline inflation would likely be ignored by the Bank of Canada that anticipate an acceleration of 2.1 per cent year over year in Q4 in the October monetary policy meeting. Their forecasts seem to be right in the ballpark so far. The week is wrapped up by Friday's retail sales with markets expecting a robust reading. From a technical perspective the dollar Canadian is back retesting support at the 131.50 area. If this area can attract buyers then there is still the potential that we put in a double bottom here and actually trade up to test the the equidistant swing target at 134 and also the major descending trend line resistance. However a failure to hold 131.50 will suggest that we are going to test back down to support at the 130.45 area. In the Eurozone a round of European sentiment surveys will further inform Q4 growth tracking and the transition into 2020 Q1. PMIs for December are due for release on Monday and then German EFO business confidence will be released on Wednesday. It remains uncertain whether a turning point in global PMIs is upon us. Some readings have slightly improved of late but not all. Some of the improvements might yet prove to be transitory given stocking activity ahead of tariff uncertainties in recent months. From a technical perspective the Eurodollar broke hard to test offers at the 112 area and we did see a short reversal Friday. However we didn't close below the short term volume weighted average price so we may well grind higher this week to retest that 112 and then up towards the equidistant swing and objective at 112.50. However if we can't catch a bid early in the week then I look for a retest of the monthly pivot down to the 110.60 area where I once again I'd be looking for buyers to potentially step in and look for that ultimate upside objective of 112.50, 112.70. Only a failure below 110.50 would delay this upside objective suggesting returns test bids below 110. Whilst we're talking about the Euro let's check in with the DAX. The DAX continued to grind higher. We did break through the price swing highs at the 13,376 level fell short though of the target at 13,650. Again the reversal on Friday wasn't sufficient to close below the near-term volume weighted average price so we may see prices grind higher to ultimately test that 13,660 level. However I do know the the momentum divergence that we're witnessing and so I'm looking for any bearish reversals that we do see that close below the VWAP to ultimately give us a signal that we're likely to see a deeper correction back down to test support at the 12,600 level. In the UK the aftermath of the election will continue to reverberate as preparations to exit the EU swing into high gear and key decisions need to be made including central bank leadership. Mark Carney's second to last policy meeting will transition towards incorporating tightening scenarios. The Bank of England is widely expected to leave policy variables intact including the bank rate at 0.75% next Thursday. Path to the meeting will also bring out the financial stability report on Monday and stress test results that same day to be followed by the biennial report on climate change scenarios during Wednesday. We may well also learn who will replace Mark Carney as governor of the BOE when he departs at the end of next month. The conservative strong majority feeds reinforced expectations that they will announce his successor next week as the window ahead of the first day of the job is fast approaching. From a technical perspective the sterling dollars spiked higher to test through to break through the prior resistance at the 134 area and test offers at 135. These sort prices close below key resistance on Friday and we'll see now how the traders respond at the beginning of the week. If we do not get a close above this prior resistance at the 13380 area that would suggest we likely see a retest lower down to trend line support at the 13130 area. However if we do get a close above the 13380 that should inject further upside momentum into the sterling and we'd look for a test higher up towards 136. The Bank of Japan is expected to stay on hold next Thursday. Even though the October sales tax hike weakened conditions the BOJ may be more encouraged by the addition of material amounts of fiscal stimulus. The Arbe government introduced about 240 billion dollars of measures earlier this month. Japan releases another inflation report later that day as expected to show only a slight improvement in core inflation to around half a percent year over year. From a technical perspective the dollar yen tested up to the prior swing highs at the 10960 but we do note this momentum divergence appears to be weighing on prices. Any close back below the 109 level will be a bearish development suggesting that we test down into projected trend line support at the 10785 area. However if we can get a close above the prior swing highs at 10960 that will open a test of the equidistant swing target up at 11050. Finally in Australia after dropping 19,000 jobs in October Australia's job report for November release Wednesday will take on elevated significance ahead of the next RBA decision in the new year. That was the first time jobs were lost since May of 2018 and the biggest decline since August 2016. One possibility is that the economy overshot on job growth earlier and suffered a confidence blow in the heightened trade concerns. From a technical perspective the Australian dollar retested swing highs at the 6930 but we did see a bearish key day reversal on Friday. However as with other pairs we didn't get that close below the near term volume wage average price but I would like to see to confirm this potential double top but we do have significant momentum divergence. If we hold the current highs then I would anticipate we retest the 6820 area as support ultimately en route to test the equidistant swing objective up at 70 cents. Only a break back below the 6750 area would concern the bullish views suggesting a return to test year-to-date lows at 6670 and that concludes the weekly market outlook for weak commencing December 16.