 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Pretty interesting weekend of sports action with no NFL this weekend. We still got EPL match week 23 I care that we've got some NASCAR with the bush like clash at the Coliseum coming up We're gonna break down both of those today starting with Austin cast breaking on EPL as we get set for match week 23 Then I'll finish things up by talking NASCAR out in Los Angeles This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research join you to kick things off by Austin cast find him on Twitter And Austin cast you can find his work at Fandall research where he is a senior editor Austin Happy Thursday to you. How you doing today? I'm doing well. How are you doing Jim? I am doing better given that the recommendations you gave last week here on the show for match week 22 Did go well yesterday with the Liverpool money line the over and I think it was the it was a man's city that match We're gonna be over there Yeah, so four total goals there. So I feel better now So Austin is back on his hot streak never any doubt about that and happy to talk about match week 23 as well Which we'll do here for today Breaking down where Austin sees dye you will also take a look at the futures markets getting updated on Man City after that When yesterday, you know, see where things stand on them minus 140 to win is their value Or should we look elsewhere? They will talk about some matches and then later on I'll break down NASCAR in the Coliseum but first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you would get your podcast first Look at Super Bowl 58 between the chiefs and the 49ers is up That was up on Monday breaking out my thoughts on the total and the money line for that game a lot of good stuff For that game coming up next week Monday through Friday. We're talking about Super Bowl 58 here on the show So make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You can also find us on the Fandall YouTube page and over on a Fandall TV plus Now Austin, let's begin things here by talking about the top of the table because we have not discussed The outright winner for the EPL in a bid now Man City is minus 140 followed by Liverpool Two-to-one Arsenal slipping to eight to one. They were plus six fifty prior to yesterday's action Now Man City is still behind the table right now, but they did get Holland back. That's a bonus for them Is this a good price to buy them at or is the market pretty much spot-on in your eyes? So it's kind of a boring answer, but I think the market is very fair and pretty spot-on right now If I had to back one side, it would be Man City at minus 140 I think they're better especially with In addition to Holland coming back coming to Borneo is coming back. I think he's probably their best player But I think the minus 140 price is about spot-on in the way that Liverpool have been playing lately is very impressive And they are also a little scary because they've got the added emotional surge of their manager leaving and they would probably love to send him off on a high note and then They also aren't in the Champions League this year They're in the Europa League and are probably go pretty far in that but they won't have the Champions League burden that Man City has so I think But you can find reasons to back both teams And if you had just lived by the rule of anytime Man City get under like minus 150 The last few years just take him you would be doing pretty well But uh, yeah, it's all in all. I think this is pretty spot-on and as a neutral I really hope it's a good race for the rest of the year And it looks like it should be because right now Man City five points behind Liverpool in the table But they have one match. Uh, they have played one fewer match as well So important thing to consider there with that market minus 140 not too bad for Man City You kind of did predict this before the season two that you know Maybe they'll go off to a slow start stuff like that that has manifested But it does sound like like you said potential some value in Man City with where things stand right now Let's turn our attention to match week 23 austin. We have 10 matches from saturday until monday on the schedule Where do you see value in the traditional markets at fandall sportsbook this week? So my favorite bet of the weekend is in that 7 30 match the everton tottenham match And i'm not going to do a player prop and make you get up at 6 30 It's I like the match to go over two and a half goals Which I believe is priced at minus 159 As I've said on here in the past this year Tottenham has been the best watch in the league this year They typically play really open and attacking style They create a lot of chances, but they also give up a lot of chances their match yesterday Against brentford was a perfect example. They won three to two and both teams probably feel like they Should have scored more for the year Tottenham have accumulated the sixth most expected goals and allowed the sixth most xg by fbrs model There's been at least three goals on each of their past five league matches And they've allowed at least 1.3 xg and 11 of their last 12 matches As for everton they're decent going forward sitting 10th and xg created They've totaled 19.4 expected goals in their last 11 home matches And they've accumulated Exactly nine expected goals across their last five matches and they had a really tough Stretch of opponents in that time. They played man city villa new castle. Chelsea and Manchester United Another added element here is rest both teams played in london midweek But tottenham played on wednesday night And everton played on tuesday So everton are going to have a slight rest advantage And between the two teams is probably better if tottenham's the team that's not at 100 as far as helping this get three goals And tottenham so tottenham played wednesday night and i have a quick turn around to saturday afternoon I think that's a really big ask for a team that's missing some players So the minus 159 price isn't all that fun, but i'd be willing to take this up to minus 180 Both sides have been pretty good going forward and tottenham's style should help this match get to three goals Does the rest factor push you away from taking an alt market to get to over three and a half goals? Is that too big of an ask given that both these teams did play midweek now they're playing again saturday morning Yeah, it does a little bit I think you can make a case for it and I looked at it and I just thought maybe I was swinging for the fence a little too much there but uh Yeah, I think In general, I think rest probably hurts the defense is more just because When you have the ball and you have a chance to score you're probably going to find the energy to make that happen But uh, yeah, that's a great question. But overall, I'd rather just take the minus 159 Okay, so that is on over two and a half goals for everton versus tottenham on saturday morning At least here in the u.s. It's in the morning for that one minus 159 over two and a half goals there Which other traditional markets stand out to you austin for this weekend I'm gonna stick with saturday and i'm gonna take the brighton money line at minus 150 against crystal palace I really like brighton in this matchup and I was pretty torn on what's the best way to get exposure to I'm either that money line or brighton to go over one and a half goals, which is minus 156 So while I might end up taking both I lean more toward the money line If you look at the match logs, you're really not going to like what you see with brighton They're coming off their worst outing in the season the 4-0 loss at lutein town midweek They haven't scored in any of their past three matches And there's no way to spend the 4-0 loss into anything but a really ugly performance But they've still been creating chances of late They put up 4.2 xg over those last three matches. So despite not scoring They've still Been given themselves chances to score and since deserving their manager came in last year They've been one of the best attacking sides in the league And this is a really good bounce back spot for them on xg differential Brighton our eighth palace are 14th over their last three road message palace have Allowed five goals at arsenal two at chelsea and two at man city That's obviously a really tough stretch Schedule-wise, but in terms of xg created this campaign brighton aren't too far behind those three teams And palace just conceded two goals at home to shuffle united What pushes me toward the money line really is that crystal palace has two best players michael olise and everiche ezzi Who are amazing tuesday night? They both came off and looked a little bit worse for the wear and a little dinged up And if either of them had to miss this matchup that would be a huge blow for palace They are by far the two best players for the eagles So that's kind of what pushes me toward the money line more than that brighton over one and a half goals So I think brighton are going to create chances and even if palace have those two guys I like brighton to get the win So how much of that injury ambiguity do you think is baked into this price already because if it's not baked in There's a chance we could get some good movement in our favor Incentivizing us to lock in this bet right now versus if you think it's already baked in We could wait see if they play on saturday and maybe get a better price if they were to play so basically Do you think those injuries are already baked into this number at minus 150? So obviously the books are really smart, but I I first looked at this line when brighton were getting smashed Lootentown and I thought who did they play next and I saw their minus 150. So it was the same price So yeah, I I do think I think that essay is probably fine He just looked tired and oh we say both they they really carried him that match it was incredible I've never seen two guys just single-handedly win a game like that but uh At least they struggled with injuries this year off and on and he just looked completely gassed and with a quick run around I could see him Maybe be in use as a sub Okay, so brighton moneyline minus 150 does sound like about we'd be better locking in now versus waiting to see What the lineups look like on saturday? So the two traditional market props or bets we have for this week are going to be Brighton minus 150 moneyline over crystal palace and then the tottenham everton match to go over two and a half goals minus 159 Any player props stand out to you across match week 23 Yeah, I'm going to go back to new castle our favorite team here at the show um We stayed away from a late league because they've really been struggling, but it's mostly been injuries and fatigue Um, they had a lot of rest before their last match at aston villa midweek And villa hadn't gotten beaten home at all year I got hadn't lost at home all year. Sorry And new castle came in and just smack them three one played fantastic look like the new castle Of the last two years I think they'll keep it going at sleutentown and obviously they're huge minus 250 favorites They're minus two 245 to go over one and a half goals. So that pushes me toward their Goal or assist market, which I'm just a huge fan of that market in general And I like anthony gordon. He's minus 120 to score or assist He's got seven goals and five assists this season and it was one of their key attacking players and creative players so I really like new castle to score a couple goals in that match and Of all the the attacking options for him. I think gordon's price is the one I like best now When we're talking about some markets, um, we can see some differentiation from one venue to another like for tackle props ryan newnan For for us talked about how some Scorekeepers are more likely to give and assist on a tackle Do you see some other spots? Same thing kind of with the mba and scorekeeping there Does do assist numbers vary from one place to another or is that kind of regulated by the epl Is easy enough to tell where you're going to get it regardless or Do we need to account for potential scorekeepers with markets that do factor in the assist? That's a good question. Uh by my understanding it's like regulated by the league and it's not like baseball Where there's like a hometown scorer who may you know side with the hometown team? So Yeah, but good question though. Okay, just making sure gotta check all the bases before We get fully into all of this. So anthony gordon minus 120 to score or assist that is for the new castle versus the lutentown match Coming up this weekend. That is austin cast make sure you check him out on twitter and austin cast find his Fantastic work over at fandua research as well. Austin. I appreciate the time as always. Good luck to you Enjoy this weekend. We'll talk to you once again in the very near future Sounds good. Thank you. See Jim. Alrighty again find austin on twitter at austin cast as mentioned We're going to talk about some nascar in the bush like clash at the coliseum Coming up next but first happy super bowl to all who celebrate and Be sure to celebrate a fan dual america's number one sports book If you're like me super bowl sunday It's all about scoring the best in the couch grabbing your favorite football snacks and placing some bets Fan dual has so many ways for you to end the season with a w or two or three Not only can you bet on who will win super bowl 58? But fan dual also has bets for which players will score a touchdown How many points will be scored and so much more new customers join today? 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Let's dig in now to this weekend's nascar race It is the first race of the year an exhibition event where they run around the la coliseum It's a custom build track. They've done this now two years. This will be the third year and I was watching back to last year's race and it's good to get a reminder of just how unruly this race is where You got you get a lot of bumping because it's so hard to pass with a short track like this You effectively need to bump a guy in order to get past them in the corner So it's pretty interesting overall, but also not super easy to predict So I do see value this week in my numbers But what i'm going to do is take my traditional bet size for a nascar outright at the respective odds and lower that because My confidence in that value being good value is lower than what I typically would have it's also an important way to know the house rules because Only 23 out of 36 cars will advance into the main event The only driver who is guaranteed to be in the main event is ryan blaney as he is the most recent champion in nascar so You got to look around the house rules and kind of know what they say at fandall specifically the house rules say and I Will read this verbatim any drivers who do not qualify for the race will be deemed no action That to me implies that they don't make it to the uh the finale That they're that the bets will be no action. That'd be good for us as betters I don't know for sure that's the case. So I'd reach out to customer support to check on that to double check Um, I don't know but I based on my interpretation of the house rules Any drivers who do not qualify for the race will be deemed no action That to me says they don't advance to the main event that you would effectively get refunded Again, I'm not speaking on behalf of them because I don't know I'm just reading this from the house rules at fandall.com. I'd reach out to customer support if you have questions on that to clarify Because it it actually does matter quite a bit and also if you're betting somewhere else Just be sure you know How things operate there because it does differ from one book to another Some books will say if you attempt to qualify the bet stands so advantage goes to house to to Sportsbook where the house rules say you get your bet back and they don't qualify for the main event So keep that in mind when you are looking around at different odds and be sure to know house rules for every books In general, uh, but specifically for this weekend. It's more important than it is at other Uh for other races So let's take a look here at the odds over at fandall sportsbook for this race Uh martin shrugs jr. And kyle larson co-favorites for this race at nine to one And I do show value on both larson at nine to one and denny hamlin at 10 to one Those numbers are pretty short for a volatile race But those two guys are both really good And they've had at least some level of success in the clash before Larson is the favorite to win straight up by my model But because hamlin's odds are longer. I am going to wind up riding with him as my one true bet I want to lock in at this point for the clash last year hamlin was really good during the clash He was fast in practice and qualifying One is heat race and started up towards the front But then got spun during the race and with the way that this track sets up It is really tough to make your way forward if you get spun during the race and make up that ground He did eventually get back up to ninth Uh passed a couple of guys in the last lap He was able to pass a bit At least to the extent that you can on this track Hamlin was not good the year before that. Uh, whereas larson has been at least fine Both years larson started towards the back last year, but did work his way up to fifth by the end of the race So He was able to pass two Hamlin very good on the short flat tracks last year. He had a couple of podiums He had a top six average running position in three other races So a top 10 mark in all seven races on short flat tracks a top six mark and five out of seven Two podium finishes and hamlin and I think this actually does matter for this week It's okay playing the bad guy. Um, He I think he'd be okay dumping someone if it allowed him to win this race I do think that helps Specifically for this race just because the way things break down how necessary bumping is I think that actually does matter like I love ryan blaney ryan blaney hasn't always been the most aggressive driver as far as bumping guys out of the way so His two years in the clash haven't been phenomenal. So I actually do kind of care about that for this week That's the one bet i'm i'm okay locking in right now before we get not outright markets up And i'm honestly not positive we will get not outright markets up for this race given the way it breaks down and stuff like that So, um, I'm okay with denny hamlin 10 to 1 being the one clash bet I have for early on this week The other guy I did consider was daniel suarez at 80 to 1 It's a pretty long number and suarez Was good at the start of 2022 in the clash pretty good in practice But he had issues during the race and then last year Suarez didn't do a whole lot to move the needle. That's a big part of why i'm not gonna lock him in now Despite the fact this is 80 to 1 I know that number could shorten But I think that's an okay risk for me I'd rather wait and maybe get a worse number later than take a potentially dead number right now But suarez will be running the nascar mexico series race earlier on that day So he's gonna have more track time than other drivers this weekend and my simulations Which don't know about the mexico rate mexico series race Do actually has suarez above his implied odds at 1.2 percent. So I want to see something out of suarez on saturday That would mean his odds would shorten because obviously that stuff will be accounted for by betters and by sports books But i'm okay Allowing this number to shorten on me if it gives me more confidence that suarez has a good feel for the track at that time If he were to shorten to something like 25 to 1 I'd probably be out then I can't see my model getting in the 4% range with where it's currently at but If suarez does remain a long shot, even if he does shorten a bit from where he's at I'd be okay giving him consideration if he can run well on saturday If I do like suarez as a bet to win this race after that information It'll be up in the nascar betting guide over a fandal research So get a fandal dot com slash research look for the nascar betting guide for the clash of the coliseum You can go to the nascar page at fandal research to find that I'll update that in the morning on sunday once we get updated odds If there's someone who catches my attention at where things reopen later on So no suarez for now sticking with just hamlin, but we'll keep my eye on suarez to see if we can get a potentially good number at some point During the day on sunday That's all we got here for today here on covering the spread big Thank you once again to austin cast for joining us to find austin on twitter austin cast check out his work over at fandal research I am on twitter at jim saunas. You can find me on threads at jim dot saunas and check out fandal research on twitter At fandal research tomorrow. We are back here. We're going to talk some usc and talk At hl futures at the all-star break by talking to austin swain, which should be a whole lot of fun We'll talk to all of you then this has been covering the spread right here on the fandal podcast network