 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning market kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Monday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN. A little bit stuffed up folks, getting over a little bit of COVID last week in my household. Unfortunately, not the only one as Omicron spreads throughout this country and across the world. Thankfully everybody doing well, can try and make it through the hour. Should be okay, but a little stuffed up, still getting over it, as you can tell from my voice, of course. But great to be back. Quite a week in the markets last week, we're going to kick it off again this week with a little bit of volatility in both directions. You have the S&Ps, negative by about seven points right now, putting it off 15 minute chart. Remarkable, almost can't overstate the volatility that you had on both directions. Every single day, almost last week, you had two-way action in dramatic fashion. That's your chart going back to last Monday. And boy, you're talking about basically 150 to 200 point S&P range. And we finish out the week almost right at the highs. You actually have a high, I guess you could call it, of 44, 46 on Wednesday last week. But that's a brief high. You see the spike we got up there basically closing at session highs for the week almost, to close things out. Remarkable. This week, we kicked things off negative by about six points on the S&P right now at 44.16. NASDAQ in positive territory. NASDAQ, the only index in the green right now, up above 52 points at 14,486. You get the dial up 131 points, 34,464 of the Russell, negative by 11 right now. Crude. Quite a price tag on Friday, almost made it to an 89 handle. This morning, we're trading right now up 60 cents on the session at 87.43. Gold quite a pullback last week following the Fed. Gold trades from 18.54 down to 17.80. Gold catching a little bit of a bid just even in the last half hour, spiking about 10 bucks to 17.98. Gold's trading at 17.96 right now. We jump over to silver, up 21 cents, quite a pullback on silver as well. You're talking about almost a $2 slide, not almost a $2 slide. More than a $2 slide. If you back things up to where we were early Monday, 24.25, make it down to 22.15 as a Friday's action and the all-important notes and bonds. We're talking about a yield right now in the tenure of 1.8%, quite the fall off on Wednesday, man. Chairman Powell's press conference, Wousers, right? Pretty revealing press conference as we all know on Wednesday, he sounded really confident that they're going to be able to lift off, they're going to be able to lift off in a way that they were not able to do in 2018 because of the strength of the economy. That in and of itself should be pretty revealing folks in terms of where he assesses the risk to this market. The Fed has two mandates, maximum employment and stable prices. Folks, maximum employment, we got a 3.9% unemployment rate. I think we're all aware of the stories of the tight labor market, right? People quitting, people able to demand higher wages when jumping jobs, very tight labor market 3.9%. You contrast that to the inflation numbers that we see no longer transitory as we're in January of 2022 now, 7% almost on the inflationary front. Point being, look at those two mandates, 3.9% unemployment rate and 7% inflation. You better believe that stable prices is the mandate that the Fed's worried about right now. And we got a non-farm payroll number on Friday this week, should be an interesting number for the month of January, expectations about 150,000 for jobs added on Friday. I wouldn't be surprised if the market even misses that folks, I wouldn't be surprised if it's almost a flat number, some calling for a negative number. My family had COVID last week, right? And I'm not the only one. And just living through that experience, the disruption is real folks. I had first it starts with you have a kid maybe then you have my fiance was positive on Wednesday. So she was self isolating. So I had to take care of the kids, okay? So I'm taking care of the kids, she's self isolating, turns out we all got it, not surprising at a household, right? So as of Thursday night, we figure that out, then we can be together at least come Friday. We were kind of comfortable that we all had it at least and there was no reason to isolate between each other. Point being, I had to be able to work on Thursday and Friday cuz I was watching the kids, we're all sick, even though I wasn't sick myself. The disruption, very, very real when you have this many cases, folks, this many cases throughout the country, the disruption to families, to businesses, etc. I was out of work Thursday and Friday, playing catch up a little bit this weekend with emails and stuff like that. You can't avoid the disruptions when you get that many people infected, folks. So it's interesting to see how this number is gonna come out Friday, but here's what I'll say about it. We get non-farm payrolls on Friday for the month of January. Even if we come in with a negative number, don't think that that is gonna give some type of pause to Chairman Powell for their rate adjustments going forward. Yes, you start seeing severe weakness in this economy that will alter their path. A low number for January with the Omicron spike basically encompassed within that month, I believe that Chairman Powell will be able to write that one off pretty quickly and maybe rightfully so, that that is not gonna indicate a broad weakness in the economy. That's gonna indicate COVID spike that kind of blew us all out of the water here. Unfortunately, we got deaths at like 2,400 people dying every single day right now. A sad issue in a big way. That's just the humanity portion of things, but you look at the business side of things. The disruption is very real, folks. I just lived it myself. Now, here's what I'll say coming out of that as well, that I got two kids in my household under the age of five, okay? They don't have a chance to get vaccinated. We've begun to live our life. Everybody else in my household is vaccinated. We've begun to live our life, right? We went to a hotel, a hospital a couple times over the last year, so it's not like we're hunkered down, but we had made the conscious decision to try and remain as safe as possible within reason, still seeing people going out occasionally, but not being around larger groups of people with the unvaccinated kids, hoping that we could get to the point that they get the vaccine. And we were pretty close, but didn't quite make it. Omicron had other plans as I put my newsletter this morning to subscribers of rocket equities and options. But the goal was to try and get them vaccinated before their eventual exposure. Everybody's going to be exposed at some point, folks. It's going to become an endemic deal that we are dealing with this forever. So I'm no fool to think we're going to get rid of this thing. But the goal was to get them vaccinated hopefully before they're exposed. So that dictated a lot of our decisions in terms of being around very large groups of people. Maybe when you're talking about going to an amusement park, right? Maybe going to a big movie theater, something like that. Trying to keep the kids out of that just to keep them as safe as possible. Really close to being able to get that vaccine. Point being, they've now been exposed, unfortunately so, but everybody's doing well, which is the bottom line, the good deal. That going forward is going to change our behaviors. If we didn't have unvaccinated kids in the house, okay, yes, you can still practice safe measures. But we would have been more comfortable ourselves being vaccinated to be around larger groups in the event. So I mean, we watched football playoffs this weekend. My goodness, what a weekend of football to go along with last weekend as well. But looking at those stadiums, just packed houses, right? Will be tough to bring the unvaccinated kids in our household. These were personal decisions we were making, okay, but we're not the only ones making these decisions. And I imagine we're not the only ones, folks, okay, that when you get exposed to the Omicron variant and now maybe you had kids in the household who now are going to have some form of immunity. We will be more comfortable maybe to start making decisions that we weren't quite comfortable with prior, okay? And that's going to matter. And that's why you're seeing, I think everybody talking about, this is the last wave, once we get over this, you're going to start seeing a return to normal. Finally, how that hits travel stocks, how that hits stocks like Disney. If you listen to the program, you know I've been a bull on Disney for a while. Let's tell you folks, I was chatting with my dad this morning and I put it out to subscribers as well, don't you? Disney's in the talks now. Things like that are going to become much more comfortable for people that maybe they weren't prior. So it might be a game changer as many are talking about this economy as we open back up. We'll be right back. We'll talk a little bit more about this. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci247 newsletter at tfnn.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader, Larry Pezzavento, on stocks you need to pay attention to. 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And I say travel stocks, you group in there, Disney, a big one, movie theater stocks, etc. I'm not the only one doing this folks. It is going to be a game changer. I'm living it. I can tell you that with young kids weren't quite comfortable. And listen, it's not crazy lockdowns, right? We were sending our four-year-old son to pre-K. He's there with no mask. Four-year-olds wear a mask. I don't think that makes sense in schools. You got to send him to school. He's exposed to tons of kids in school, okay? But just making choices, trying to keep them as safe as possible, maybe delaying a Disney trip, maybe delaying seeing movies, stuff like that. That's all out the window, folks, and I'm not the only one. So keep that in mind as you look for some of these stocks. Travel stocks have been crushed recently. I mean, Disney, let's just take a look real quick, right? Talk about a pullback. Now, last week, you were down as low as 129. With the market, you rebound. Today, you're going to open basically flat, slightly in the red by about, ah, you got a bit of spam spreading the close of Friday. Taking a look at the longer-term chart of Disney, almost back to the 618 or the full-run hire from COVID of 79 bucks up to 203. You trade down to 129 last week. The 618, about 126 last week. Quite the pullback, quite the underperformance in 2021. But eventually that's going to turn, folks, in Disney. Yeah, a big portion of their valuation is the Disney Plus streaming service, but you better believe the parks and the movie theater business, all right? In 2019, it's amazing I'd go back to 2019 prior to COVID. 2019, I believe Disney had nine or 10 movies that all grossed over a billion dollars at the box office, all right? That world will return at some point, folks. It's going to be slightly different with the invention of streaming and now some of those production houses dropping those titles right to streaming. But it's going to come back and I can tell you myself it's pretty exciting. We're only an hour, we're less than an hour from Disney, folks, from where I am. And it was off the table because of COVID. Well, now it's back on the table and I'm not going to be the only one, let alone around the world, et cetera. So you're going to see that play out. Look for some of those travel stocks potentially. I mean, Disney, we also have Uber. Now you talk about a pullback, man. But again, check it out right at the 618, folks, all right? Big fan of Fibonacci's, big fan of our man, Larry Pezzavento. And he loves those Fib numbers, learned a lot from watching him. And it is always nice when you see it right back to that 618, folks. The 618 on Uber from the full COVID lows to the highs we got in early 2021, you're talking about a 618 of $32.76. We traded down to $32.81 last week within five pennies of a 618 retracement of that stock. You bounce a bit, we're up to $35. Doesn't mean they're out of the woods yet. Uber, a little bit more complicated stock than Disney in terms of their international exposure, Uber eats, Uber, et cetera. But I think I made my case, folks, keep your eye on all those stocks as we come out of the Omercron variant and see how we go from there. Okay, so let's jump over to interest rates, since that's what we're talking about, right? Then and now, how this Fedlaw lift off is nothing like that of 2015. So I'm not going to go through the whole article, but I did want to touch on Bank of America. They're looking for seven, seven rate hikes this year. I don't see that one coming, folks. I think Chairman Powell, like I told you, he is dead focused on one of his mandates, and it's not maximum employment, folks. So he is going to be fierce in his declaration to keep moving forward with rising rates, but seven, I don't know if I see that acting too slow. Yes, that's a real deal. Seven rates, not sure that's the case, but they're coming, folks. They're coming and they're starting in March, and they're probably going to be about four rate hikes this year. And don't expect that an economic number, like we might see on the non-farm payroll number on Friday, will freak that out. It's going to take a continued, continued dismal performance by the economy to put a dent in an economy that's running right now at unemployment of 3.9%. I know I'm saying somewhat of a repetitive issue, but it's important to remind yourself, folks, that it is going to take a monumental shift change in the economic numbers taking place in this economy for Chairman Powell and the Federal Reserve to somehow think that they are impacting an economy to the point of weakness in their effort to maintain stable prices. This economy is as strong as you can be right now. Look at Apple's numbers last week, right? My goodness. This week, we get Amazon, we get Facebook, we get Google. Those three companies alone are expected to report almost one quarter of a trillion dollars of revenue over the last 90 days. You're talking about Metta, you're talking about Amazon, and you're talking about Google, Alphabet. Big numbers in a big way, and we'll see where we go from there. Now, one thing I was looking at this morning as well, pretty interesting, Bloomberg had an article up here talking about speculative net-long S&P 500 positions rise to the most since October of 2018. Check that out. Now, during the beginning of the pandemic, you had some severe negative action in there, probably some hedges, getting some negative action on the S&P to offset some exposure within portfolios. You see the negative action you had for the better part of the first half of 2020, that turns around. You see the ramp up that we've had, and then you see the ramp up on the pullback. Quite a ramp up indeed, highest number since back to 2018. Interesting to see how that plays out in terms of where we go from there. All right. With that in mind, let's jump around to some of the headlines I have up here. Where do we start? Let's see. Talking about traders, talking about Spotify. Yeah, I mean, this is what I was talking about with the jobs number. White House warns that January's Omicron Spike could weigh on the next week's jobs data. Not good when you see the White House coming out charting already underplayed the jobs data coming out on Friday. But I told you, I'm living it, folks. Let's just say TFNN had plans to hire somebody last week. That probably might have been put on hold. I don't know, but I'm just telling you, small businesses, large businesses, when you have this many cases going on, whether you have spouses at home, you have kids, you have to isolate, people are out of work, there is going to be a disruption. There's no doubt about it. That disruption is already priced in with an expectation of only 150,000 jobs added. But when you start seeing the expectations downplayed already a week ahead, we'll see how that go. Now, a recent report showed that more than 14 million Americans did not work at some point between December 29th and January 10th due to COVID-19 related impacts. Folks, it's three weeks later than that, and this spike is just waning. There's a lot of Americans that were out of work to deal with the woes of COVID, whether it's families, whether it's yourself isolating, et cetera. That will play into things when we get Friday's number. And it'll be interesting to see if we get a big miss. This one I could argue is transitory. It's really going to be interesting when we get over this hump, okay? In a month or two, when Omicron subsides, hopefully, but this is all the indications that we've already peaked out, at least nationally, all right? I know that some areas I'm sure are peaking still across the country and the globe. But within the US, hopefully, we have peaked out. Sad deal, the number of deaths going on still, 2400 people a day, man. You almost can't even comprehend the carnage. Very sad deal. But we are over that peak. And so in a month or two, there's not going to be any more excuses, okay? Hopefully, there's no more variants, et cetera. But there is a legitimate excuse, I believe, in this non-farm payroll number. So don't anticipate too much of a rapid reaction to that number on Friday, if it's a big miss, because markets are already aware. That's not going to give the Fed any pause. That might not be a true reflection of the economy. We're going to get some earnings numbers this week. Those might be a much bigger number to watch, Facebook, Amazon, and Google. We'll go over some of those. We'll look at when they're coming out this week. We'll be right back from the market open, folks. Stay tuned. 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We are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We got markets open. You got the S&Ps. Negative by 8 to kick things off. NASDAQ futures. NASDAQ 100 in the green by 63 points. Dow off 175. Let's jump over to the VIX right now. You got the volatility index 2842, quite a spike last Monday to 3894. Now, checking out the VIX, you put this thing on a weekly. We saw a spike at the COVID lows of 85, 47. You back it up just after that, though. The highest spike after the COVID lows, just because that skews the chart a little bit when you put 85 in there. You can't see how high these jumps are when you're in the 40s. So we're gonna zoom in on the recent action, like I say recent, going all the way back almost two years ago to June of 2020, almost a year and a half. Point being, you see that we are right at a level that usually indicates a spike. I mean, you're at the highest level you saw last week in the VIX since October of 2020. We saw a higher number last week than we saw of all of 2021. Maybe we get a pullback. Nothing certain, folks. But that is an area when you approach 40 that recently we've seen spikes. You're talking about 44, 38, 41, 37, 35. And beyond that, you got as high as about 3190 to 28s in the last year. So if you're looking for a pullback and volatility premium, maybe a little bit of pause in terms of the negative pullback, that might be a good indication. Now, you jump over to the S&Ps. So I'm gonna put this thing on a daily and zoom in on the action that we had last week. Boy, quite the volume day on Monday and quite the day indeed these S&Ps, man. I mean, these bars, you almost can't overstate. Folks, you're talking about a bar in the S&P last Monday, 215 points, 215 points, and you finish the session in the green last Monday. And point being, you had volume at those lows. You're talking about 3.7 million shares traded for the ES futures on Monday. And you can see it wanes a bit. You jump over to the Qs, pretty similar action across the board. And we're seeing all the markets slip into the negative right now. NASDAQ in the negative, Dow off 225 right now. There's your action in the Qs. Excuse me. As we saw about 199 million shares traded on Monday, then it goes to 124, 146, 95, and only 108 on Friday. I mean, think about the action we had on Friday. And you almost did double the volume on Monday that you did on Friday. Maybe that's a little bit of an exhaustion. I mean, folks, any time you just trade from 400 and change to 340, you're talking about a 15% pullback in the span of a month. That is a lot of selling right now in this market. Maybe we get a little bit of a pause. We will see as we go forward. All right, this headline. So think about, I've talked about this a little bit. So China has been pushing the zero COVID policy and probably is going to come back to bite him in the butt. Disruptions in China can lead to ripple effects across the global supply chain says HSBC. The pandemic has revealed how lean the supply chain has become and little margin of error. Excuse me. China's zero COVID restrictions will impact global supply chain recovery as any small disruption in the country will likely lead to ripple effects across the world. I agree with this folks. I was talking about it last week. All right. The zero COVID restrictions of China do not work anymore with Omicron. So what you're seeing happening is they have very little natural immunity. Their vaccines are not as effective as the mRNA vaccines in the US. So they have a real problem that they have cases rising. They can't control and they are willing to lock that down. Because if they don't, they have so little natural immunity that they may be overrun. So they're willing to lock down cities because they almost have to. And that's going to impact potentially supply chain. I mean, we're going to be out of it in the US. Hopefully Europe is too. But China is a different deal because the policies they've taken and they are still supplying the world with a lot of goods that make it through the corporate supply chain. That is going to be a constant theme folks until China actually overcomes COVID and the zero COVID restriction policy that they've put in place will hamper supply chain issues for months, if not years to come. So we'll see how that plays out. But that one is one I agreed with. I've been talking about. Keep your eye on that one for sure. All right. We got to talk a little bit about the NFL, man. Quite a Super Bowl. Cincinnati versus the L.A. Rams. Cincinnati, boy. Quite a weekend of football. I sent this to my friends. So you had four teams left coming in to this week, right? You had Cincinnati playing Kansas City, and you had San Francisco playing the L.A. Rams. Now last weekend, if you recall, we had eight teams left. You got four games last weekend, okay? Of the four games last weekend, the first three were all settled on a last second field goal. And the fourth game was the Kansas City game Buffalo game that was just extraordinary into overtime. So those are the four games last week. Then you get the Cincinnati game that ends in overtime. So that's the fifth straight game that you ended basically on the last play. And then you get last night's game with San Francisco versus L.A. Six straight games basically going down to the last second leading up to the Super Bowl. You had six straight games leading up to the last second leading up to the Super Bowl. Quite an NFL playoffs. Looking forward to that game in two weeks. And a couple great teams. And man, Joe Burrow, right? Cincinnati Bengals. Stafford and the Rams as well. But Burrow, man, on KC. Quite a game indeed. And here's what I'll say about it. If you didn't see the game versus Cincinnati and Kansas City, okay? As people who are in the probability business, okay? Small decisions, folks, can somehow, sometimes, not somehow, can sometimes have monumental impacts. And if you saw the end of the first half, you already know what I'm going to say. Kansas City had the ball up 21 to 10. They were on the one yard line. Excuse me. And they had nine seconds left with first and goal. Tony Romo is in the announcing booth. And he does a phenomenal job, man. Watching those two games back to back. And Troy Aikman does a great job as the color commentator as well. But Tony Romo, I just really think he does an outstanding job, even, you know, watching the first game, then the second. I found myself missing some of his takes. But he had said, listen, you got nine seconds here, okay? You can do three plays. Excuse me, sorry. And he was right. The first play, you had Mahomes, throw it away within a few seconds when the pass wasn't open. So now they're down to five seconds left. And they're on the one yard line. And they have no timeouts. Okay. The play there is, you probably throw it somewhere on the end zone. That way, if there's an incomplete, it stops. And if it's a touchdown, you get the touchdown. Okay. And then you make the decision, whether you want to kick a field goal on the next play from the one yard line, or you just want to go for it for the touchdown. And maybe that's when you do a one yard dive or something like that. What do they do, folks? They threw a little dump pass to the side and Tyree Kilguck tackled in bounds and the half ended. That was a monumental error by the coaching staff. Okay. Andy Reid, no excuses. And it started the demise of that game for Kansas City. Going into the half, that demoralized off of that decision, changed the whole complexity of that game. And yes, you know, you could say that maybe they kick a field goal, they're only up 24 to 10 versus 21 to 10, but it's a game changer, folks. They missed a huge opportunity there and they did it for no reason other than carelessness. And as a result of that, I think they're a little cocky. That's kind of what I'm getting here. I think if you were an underdog team there and you needed every point you could get, you would have made sure that you were making the absolute best decisions possible. And you never would have thrown a pass to the side and allowed it, but they weren't. They thought they were better than Cincinnati. They thought that they could kind of get a little tricky, get a little finesse and throw a little dump pass to Tyree Kill. Maybe he'll cut it back inside and score. And no, no, what happened? He gets tackled, half ends, Cincinnati comes out, and they blow him away in the second half. So be aware of those small decisions, folks. Don't let down your guard like Kansas City did. We'll be right back. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property, Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels. 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Welcome back folks just like that market's finding yet another bid you got the S&P's in positive territory by three points right now and 44.27 NASDAQ surging higher right now you're up 140 points we'll call it 1% in the positive for the NASDAQ 100 trading at 14,570 I mean putting this on a one minute chart just to show you the acceleration we dropped lower right out of the gate and then boom you're talking about 150 points folks from where we're trading at in 10 minutes the NASDAQ 100 just accelerated 1% higher in the last 10 minutes volatility ain't going anywhere folks and it's not just going to be one way we got a two-way market right now in spades as they would say S&P's you're talking about a jump of about 25 points from where we were 10 minutes ago and the Dow still in negative territory about about by about 130 points let's jump around to some of the stocks that have earnings this week amazon getting some bid action up 2% to kick things off right now now amazon let me get my uh site straight in terms of where we are amazon is out thursday after the market okay let's jump over to the analyze tab you're talking about $130 move priced into their numbers we'll take a look at the weekly you're talking about $170 move priced into the numbers in terms of the volatility they might have if you want exposure through friday we get uh which which kicks it off let's see here give me one second excuse me yeah i believe we get let's see let's jump around because we do get amazon i believe we get facebook coming out with their numbers february 2nd wednesday after the bell they're looking for a $17 move just over a 5% move okay google is after the market tomorrow that's what i was looking at is that right yes it sure is okay so tuesday i want to get them straight tuesday we get alphabet after the bell wednesday we get facebook thursday we get amazon there we go we got it uh and as i mentioned between the three of them you're talking about 243 billion dollars to be exact i think 243 point something all three of them revenue in 90 days uh among other companies you got in there we got ups out tomorrow before the opening bell it's a big week earnings we get amd tomorrow after the closing bell uh starbucks paypal ea sport uh excuse me electronic arts gilead out tomorrow as well jumping around some of the other companies reporting this week yeah amazon snapchat out thursday as well pinterest uh gopro you get win resorts on friday we're generon um so it's going to be a big week but those are the three headlines google facebook and amazon and we jump over you got google shares actually trading lower on the open interesting divergence there with the naztac 100 up 133 points you got google and the negative on the open you got amazon shares up more than 2 percent right now and you got facebook shares basically flat at 30187 let's jump around to some of last week's stocks you got apple trading up 1 percent at 172 right now we had tesla uh with their numbers last week as well catching a bid how about that a 5.2 percent right now for tesla shares at 890 all right jumping back to the article here we go that was talking about uh then and now how this fed lift off is nothing like 2015 a couple charts uh or graphics i should say i wanted to pull up here we're all aware of this stuff but when you take a look at it you have to realize how much different this time is than any other time in recent history folks the fed has never had to lift off when facing seven percent inflation in my lifetime as an adult okay you see the numbers in terms of 2015 versus 2021 um you know the statement here you're talking about who do we have here uh had a monetary policy research at moody's ryan sweet the last time we were lifting off the fed was raising rates in anticipation that inflation was going to get back to 2 percent now they're raising rates in an environment where they're trying to get inflation down to their target of 2 percent you see the cpi numbers across the board well above anything that resembled where we were in 2015 but then this is pretty interesting right this is the prior tightening cycle okay you have the fed funds rate in black the upper boundary you see where things got pulled back then covid hits and they really drop it but look at where we were in terms of changes in in the cpi look at where we are now if you think that chairman paul is going to be worried about one jobs report during an omicron spike when this is what's going on with the stability of prices then you do not agree with my assessment of things uh pay attention to that folks keep it in mind when you start thinking that the fed may pause or the fed may be afraid to raise rates remember what chairman paul said and how confident he is that this is not the same as the last time it's all there folks all right you're going to take a severe weakening of this economy to pause the fed doesn't mean the feds coming with seven hikes okay but they are not going to be worried if they cause a little bit of angst i mean there were analysts out there talking about that even another pullback of 15 to 20 percent would be what it took before the fed really started to get worried because guess what a 10 to 15 percent pullback from where we are right now that would be unfortunate okay inflation continuing to run to seven even hotter six seven percent that would be much worse than unfortunate and that is what the fed is dealing with right now yeah hottest in nearly 40 years i turned 42 in march haven't seen it in my lifetime folks so it's very difficult to assess it but you see charts like that we are in uncharted territory to say the least they need to get a handle on that folks that is increasing inflation not transitory that is increasing inflation for the entire portion of 2021 and that is probably what has chairman paul freaked out the most right now and rightfully so all right let's jump over to some crypto bitcoin quite the acceleration last week down to 32 000 you're almost making up to 39 000 on wednesday you're sitting right now making a $470 at 37 320 so ftx boy ftx uh how about a what's it 40 billion dollar valuation let me pull this up what they just get 40 billion 32 billion excuse me 32 billion uh you add their us affiliate though and you're at 40 check this out so 32 billion dollar valuation despite bear market fears credit to them you raise money when you can folks uh 400 million dollars in the new round of funding values the company at 32 billion up from 25 billion just in october it's just january man uh as they say built up a war chest of funds at a time when crystal price crypto prices have sunk dramatically that's 32 billion now the company doesn't offer trading in the us that function is provided by ftx us its sister's sister exchange they just raised 400 billion last week valuing that company though at 8 billion dollars uh all investors in the us affiliate jumped aboard its own fund raise as well having now raised a combined two billion dollars in venture funding to date built up the war chest when digital currency prices have sunk considerably crypto ain't going anywhere and uh it's got to be nice to be the exchange right yes you're making a lot more money when crypto is going crazy but they're going to be around crypto exchanges are going to be around ftx one of the biggest ones out there and uh 32 billion dollars 40 billion dollars says a lot about the uh investor need want for access to that market 400 million bucks uh from some of the smartest wall street firms out there i mean you're talking about let me pull that up you had uh soft banks vision fund two and tiger global those two alone some of the biggest uh players out there in the business so they're there they're no fools putting that money in at that valuation all right folks we got the s and p is negative by two we got the nasdaq 100 up by 93 stay tuned we'll be right back to finish up the show sharpening your skills as an investor is 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