 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning markets kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien. Good morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN Wednesday morning already, June 1st. We kick off June trading markets picking things off and kicking things off in positive territory. Let's take off that Fibonacci for a little bit of clarity here. We look at an S&P currently trading up 16 points right now at 41.47. Talk about a little volatility yesterday. We zoom in on the trading day. Accelerations in both directions at about 2.20 PM Eastern time, you're trading at 41.65. The market dives to negative territory. We make that same exact low that we had at about 3 PM Eastern time of about 41.25. You trade up 30 points, back down 30 points. Right now though, you can see overnight, last night, 9 PM Eastern time, we were just where we traded at at the peak before the market sold off for about the final 30 minutes of trading. And just in the last basically 30 minutes, you had the S&P is trading to 41.53, 41.55. About the high there, the lower part of that range, about 41.25, and the S&Ps were positive by 4.10%. NASDAQ 100 were positive by 50 points, 12,696 right now. You get the Dow up almost 200, 33,168, the Russell up by 8 points this morning. That's half a percent. Bitcoin holding up relatively well after being in some doldrums of 28,000 last week. We're sitting just near 31,725 for Bitcoin. You have Ethereum inching towards 2,000. We were above that level briefly early. What's that? Last night? Yeah, last night above 2,000 briefly for Ethereum. Crude continuing to rise. How about 1,1998 yesterday? You sell off to a 1,14 handle this morning. We're back to a 1,1639 handle. We'll be talking to our man, Teddy Kegstad from 4x-trading-unlocked.com at 40 past the hour. It's already Wednesday, short week, Wednesday coming up quicker than usual. Gold contract up $2 right now, but check out that pop on the session, man. You talk about a pop. Gold early this morning had traded all the way down to 1830 and change, 1830-20 to be exact. And then boom, in the last hour, man, gold rocking $20 to the upside up to 1850. And we jump to notes and bonds. An important day. As we kick off June, we kick off the balance sheet of the Fed rolling off, and we'll get into some of the specifics of that. In a moment, we have the 10-year right now basically flat, but you see the action. We were down to 1,1903. We're up to 1,1915 right now, the 10-year basically flat. All right, let's jump to what we have going on, and that's the headline to kick things off. The Fed starts the quote-unquote experiment of letting 8.9 trillion portfolio shrink. First assets will mature without reinvestment on June 15. Officials quote-unquote uncertain about market impact of accelerated runoff. If anybody tells you that they're certain of how it's going to go when the Fed lets 9 trillion dollars roll off their balance sheet without reinvesting that money, when they've been reinvesting it for a long time, what, decade plus at least? Yeah, you cannot be certain how this is going to go, folks. Not even close. They're about to start shrinking. That 9 trillion dollar balance sheet, after doubling in size through asset purchases in the first two years of the pandemic, I mean, almost just the numbers, video game-style numbers sometimes, as Mary and Kevin Hinks likes to say, the balance sheet will be reduced at a pace that's almost twice as fast as the last financial crisis. The process officially commences on Wednesday, June 1, kicks off June. The first securities won't run off until $15 billion worth of them mature on June 15. So on June alone, in June alone, June 15, you got about $14.9 billion that will roll off. On June 30, you can see three different mature securities maturing, $13.3, $15.4, and $4.6. So that is over $30 billion combined. Total is $48.25 billion. Here's the deal. $30 billion is what they're capping it at for treasuries, OK? They're capping the monthly runoff of securities right now at $47.5 billion. They're capping it at $30 billion for treasuries. They're capping it at $17.5 billion for mortgage-backed securities. So you can see, even on the roll-off right now, you're still going to have the Fed investing with a bid of $18.25 billion. They're going to put back into the Treasury security market this month alone. It's an interesting way to phrase things when you're rolling off, but they're coming fast. It's twice as fast as the last financial crisis, and still going that fast, they have to invest almost $18 billion back into Treasury securities because they have so many on the books. That's what I was trying to get out. Remarkable. Now, in September, they're going to double what they're rolling off the books to $95 billion, OK? So it's June. You're going to go June, July, August. Three months, you're going to get $30 billion coming off of the Treasury securities. $17.5 billion on the mortgage-backed. $47.5 billion is the total. That's going to double in September. That compares to a peak of $50 billion a month when the Fed performed the exercise starting in 2017. Folks, here's a lesson. There are so many times when the market was doing so well and we were not able to raise interest rates because the market freaked out over free money disappearing. In good times, you have to pull that because we see that what happened here is we came into a pandemic and we were already pretty low on the interest rate totem pole. You really had a big problem having to pull those down. Rates went negative across the globe in different areas. Our interest rate was near zero. Yeah, it's a tough deal to say the least, and that's part of what's going on here. Now we have $9 trillion on the balance sheet, and this is the first month, so we'll see how it goes. Yeah, the balance sheet to about $4.5 trillion by the time it stopped buying at the end of 2014. It then waited three years before allowing it to begin to shrink at the end of 2017, but they only got it down to $3.8 trillion by 2019. So it's quite a quote-unquote experiment. We'll see where it goes from there. But they kick off this month, which is remarkable. $9 trillion on the balance sheet, and you're gonna lose $47 billion this month, so you're gonna go three months. So that'll be $150 billion that we'll lose by September. September, you start losing $90 billion a month, and we'll see where they go from there. All right, we got some earnings. Last night, Salesforce, they're rocking it higher today, raises profit forecast on resilient demand for business software. Revenue gains, 24% in the quarter, 24%. Staggering number when they're dealing with billions. 7.41 billion fueled by their acquisition of Slack. What do they pay for Slack? $27 billion or something like that. They raise the annual profit forecast, signaling demand for business software is holding up despite a broader downturn from major tech firms. So interesting to see how that goes. Salesforce, very business-facing, right? They're not selling to a lot of individual consumers. Maybe that's a different scenario compared to the likes of some of those companies, especially the companies relying on ad dollars because they are servicing individual consumers on a general versus Salesforce. Fiscal year earnings, $474 to $476, an increase of 12 cents a share from the prior forecast, revenue for the year, $31.8 billion. The market was looking for $468 a share. So it beat there, and yes, they did. Slack, $27.7 billion is what they paid for Slack. Last month, however, the company joined tech sector peers in slowing down hiring. So Salesforce said full-time equivalent positions rose 30% from a year earlier to $77,810. That's quite a number. We'll finish this up. We'll talk to our man, Kevin Hicks. Stay tuned, folks, we'll be right back. At a time of booming inflation, we are purchasing powers eroded. There's no better place to protect your harder and money-thanning gold. This is the gold's flagship asset, the Mount Todd Gold Project in the Northern Territory of Australia. This is Australia's largest undeveloped gold project. We are talking a world-class gold project in a tier one mining district. This is a large-scale, low-cost project with significant existing infrastructure in a politically safe and friendly mining jurisdiction. Vista Gold just completed the Mount Todd Feasibility Study, which resulted in a 7 million ounce gold reserve in a 16-year mine life. 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At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit tfnn.com and try Mastering Probability, 30 days risk-free today. TFNN, educating investors. Welcome back, folks. We have the S&P Futures, positive by 21 points right now. We have all the markets in the green, Nasdaq 100, positive by 77, the Dow up 223, Russell up 11 points. Let's jump over to our man, Kevin Hinks. Every trading day, folks, 12 noon Eastern time right here on Tiger TV, fast market from the TD Ameritrade Network with your host, Kevin Hinks, Tom White. They walk you through the day's market action, talking about hypothetical trade setups, folks, using options, using defied risk. Kevin Hinks, good morning. Good morning, Tommy O'Brien. Yeah, you know, it's interesting day, interesting start to the week, that's for sure. Little bit of surprise, good news out of Salesforce overnight, that's good. Some of the economic data yesterday was more positive than expected. I think what's interesting about the rest of this week, Tommy, is starting at 10 o'clock Eastern with the Joel's number. We're gonna get a serious look at employment in the U.S. We've got Joel's coming out today. We've got ADP and non-farm, and jobless claims coming out tomorrow. Then non-farm payrolls and unemployment on Friday. We're gonna get a really good look at the labor market in terms of its overall strength. So, earnings are getting a little thin, as you know, but we still got a couple of good ones. Salesforce was a good one. Lululemon and CrowdStrike tomorrow. Today, Lightfolio's gonna look at Chewy, the online pet food supply company. And then, so then we're gonna look at, we're gonna look at some airlines. I think Delta got a nice upgrading guidance today from the home base. So, we're gonna trade what's moving here, but obviously you know, Tommy, the first week of every month is non-farm payrolls. That's the number one data point of the month. That's what we'll be looking forward to in a couple of days. It's pretty interesting, man, how there's kind of no lulls right now. I mean, you talk about some earnings, maybe a little bit of a lull compared to some of those gang buster weeks that we have, where you get a third of the S&P reporting. But as you mentioned, we got ADP numbers, we got Joel's, we have the non-farm payroll number, so important for the wage data right now and the jobs number itself. And then, Kevin, we come into a Fed meeting, what, two weeks from today. So not that long that we get another Fed meeting coming down the line. I was reading a story on Bloomberg this morning just talking about June kicks off, the balance sheet roll off. They're gonna roll off, I think it's 47.5 billion when you combined treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. Treasuries, Kevin, are gonna be 30 billion of that a month for a few months. This month alone, I think it's like 48 billion are rolling off. The point being, it's pretty interesting that they have such a balance sheet right now that as they ease into trimming that balance sheet, the Fed is actually still going to be reinvesting, I think, $18 billion of securities that are gonna roll off this month alone. Are you watching that story? What's your take? Our interest rates kind of priced in. We've been talking about them, but pretty interesting. June's the month, here we go. And we'll see what happens, man. Yeah, well, I think interest rates are key. And what do I mean by that? Here's what I think is the key to having a good summer in terms of the stock market. What you want is quiet. Quiet out of interest rates, quiet out of the U.S. dollar. Quiet, it would be great if we could get some quiet out of crude oil. I don't know if we will. I think crude oil's gonna have a, I think grains and commodities like that in terms of crude oil and grains are gonna have a historic summer, Tommy. And I traded, I was standing at the board of trade, trading grains in the drought of 2012. And remember, Tommy, we're at some record levels in grain markets and we haven't even hit summer yet, right? We haven't even hit any weather market or any disruption in planting or anything like that. So there's a lot of volatility that could take place in the grain markets this summer. And I think crude oil is gonna be incredibly volatile. There's an OPEC meeting tomorrow. There's rumors going around about OPEC and output that it had kind of a volatile overnight trade in crude oil because of some of that. So I think this is gonna get a little volatile, Tommy, in terms of this summer, in terms of some of these commodities. And that's gonna leak over into the stock market for sure. Yeah, I mean, the commodity sector, man, you talked about it. And I think I saw the first name storm out there somewhere in the Atlantic, somebody told me. I mean, June 1st, I guess we're coming into it. The bad ones really get into the late in the summer as you start getting those warm, warm waters. But yeah, for the things I've been hearing too, Kevin, I saw one report, man, that says this storm season could be a rough one. Some of the currents in the Gulf of Mexico, some of the heats of those waters, man, folks. And if you, I mean, that Gulf of Mexico just turns into a warm bath by the end of August and some of those streams. So we'll see, man, but has the potential to shake things up. You talked about some of the stocks, Kevin, coming up, is that what you guys gonna be talking about today? Do you guys have the timeline yet or are you guys still formulating what you're gonna be talking about coming up at 12 today? Yeah, Tom White on vacation. So I'm hosting the show. We're definitely gonna do two-week in the first segment. We're definitely gonna do Delta Airlines in the final segment. Trying to figure out based on the news coming out, what we should cover in the first segment here. Yeah, haven't figured that out yet, but it'll be something high profile. I can guarantee that. Chewy, man, quite a chart. Up to 120 about a year ago, you're down to 2480 basically back to pre-COVID levels. Yeah, Delta out with some positive news, I think, this morning, they were a little bit higher. They are a little bit higher, up to 42 bucks from 4169. That just chopping around, man. Well, Kevin, we appreciate the time. We appreciate the conversation as always, man. We'll be watching at 12 today and we'll definitely be watching with you and the host chair, man. We'll be watching. Thanks for having me on, Tommy. Have a great day. You too, Kevin. We're gonna tune in every trading day, 12 noon Eastern time. We kick off June trading. You heard the stocks are gonna be talking about Chewy, Delta, and they'll have that third segment coming up. All right, checking back to the markets right now, folks. S&Ps drifting up a little bit. We're up by 22 points right now in the session. We're sitting at 41.53. You're coming right up to the highs we had at about 9 p.m. Eastern time. Interesting, we're gonna open right at the highs. I mean, we got five minutes and five seconds exactly, folks, and the market is opening right at the high that we sold off at at 3.30 p.m. Eastern time. You know, fundamentals work, folks. Technicals work, you combine them. It's a great thing. You can't tell me that this is not an important area considering that's right where we were when we sold off yesterday. Yeah, we made it higher a little bit pre-market. But interesting, that's where we opened. 41.55, right where we were at overnight highs, right where we were at the 3.30 high as well. We just, some positive earnings. Salesforce, they're gonna open up what? Yeah, more than 10%, 11% on the open for Salesforce. We jump around to some of the other companies. Amazon had quite a day yesterday, right? What was Amazon up like? Almost 5% or something silly. You're gonna continue that run today, up another almost 2% right now to 24.50. Amazon shareholders are proving the 24-1 stock split. I believe that happens June 6th, what's that? Yeah, Monday. So this is the last week. Amazon's gonna be trading at 2,400 bucks in change right now. You'll be splitting 20 for one, come Monday trading, June 6th for Amazon. So that was a big pop yesterday. You're continuing that pop today for Amazon up about 25 bucks. Let's check out some of the other highly followed stocks Tesla shares this morning. You're flat at 758 for Tesla. We jumped to the conjoined twin of Twitter. Twitter barely in the positive to 39.63. Gonna be interesting to see how that saga plays out. For Twitter, we jumped to some of the other fang stocks. Microsoft, Microsoft probably getting a lift with CRM, a little bit higher potentially. Cloud, business to business, Microsoft up, what's that? Yeah, $3, $3, $4 up more than a percent in the pre-market. We jump over to Google shares, Google up about 20, 25 bucks this morning and we finish the round up with Apple. Apple shares up about $1 to 150 on the dots. Stay tuned, folks. We got the opening bell coming up. I'll be right back in three minutes. If you wanna take advantage of this sector, now is the time to subscribe to my Gold Report. The Gold Report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold, which is the currency and bond markets. New subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to lose. Every Monday morning I publish the Gold Report with coverage of gold, silver, bonds, the XAU, HUI, GDX, as well as more than 30 different mining equities. 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In this live webinar, Tom O'Brien will be teaching you his entire trading system, including quality volume, ABC structures, Fibonacci confluence zones, cause and effect, swing points and more. We will be limiting this class to 40 attendees so please do not delay and reserve your seat today for this special live event with Tom O'Brien. All attendees will also receive a physical copy of his book, The Art of Timing the Trade, an $88 value, mail to you along with a free month of his daily newsletter, Market Insights, a $169 value. For all the details and to reserve your seat today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We've got markets open. The S&P opens right basically the area I was talking about. You're talking about the area right where the highs we were yesterday about 3 p.m. Eastern time. This is a 15-minute chart. We're trading at 41.55. That's the overnight high. That's the high where we sold off from at about 3.30 in the afternoon yesterday. NASDAQ 100, we're up about 107 points right now. Pretty similar area. We didn't make it to that price level overnight, but the NASDAQ 100, right where you were intraday yesterday at any price level, 12,745. And you see, I mean, we were moving 150 points in the NASDAQ 100 like nothing yesterday in a half hour's time. Dow up 242 right now, 33,216. That's being helped by Salesforce. I'm sure Salesforce is a member of the Dow. And let's jump over to Salesforce. See how they're opening up. 11.9%, that's a pop for you, man. Up $20, you're up around the $18.91 to $179. This thing has had quite a pullback though. You check out the three a weekly for the full context of the run. You were just at 3.11 seven months ago. You dive down. That's a little bit of a pop. In the long term, I am a believer in this equity folks, the cloud. You know, some serious multiples at some of these levels. I think, you know, if you didn't already know that scenario, hopefully we all learned a little lesson about multiples when they get a little out of control, especially in a rising rate environment, Navidia. The poster boy for that as well, trading from 346 back down to a recent low of about 157. That low actually 155.67 were up to 188. Now some of the other companies, I was just checking in on ARC. So ARC, and this is just one random site that I pull up occasionally to see the holdings, to see the trades. Zoom is now the number one holding for ARC. They have 3% ownership of the entire company. They only own one 10th of 1% of Tesla, even though Tesla is 9% of the company. Basically 9% is Zoom as well, just above that level. But you see the difference because of the market cap of Tesla. Roku, they have a 6.5% position in Roku. The other one that they have a big one in, exact sciences, just pull that one up. That chart is a mess. And CRISPR, 8.79% position. CRSP is their symbol. Let's jump over that one. All these stocks decimated. Part of the reason why her stocks have gotten to it. So decimated, cut by a quarter. CRISPR, up to 220. I mean, she had quite the run man. It was built on Tesla, but it was built on these too. It was built on CRISPR. CRISPR, exact sciences. Coinbase, Tesla of course, Zoom. Roku. As I said, she got a 6% position in Roku down to 95 bucks. I mean, maybe that thing's found a low. You see it chopping around. This is a weekly, right? What's that? Five straight weeks, we've been chopping around. Yeah, we have some tails that go a lot lower. You put this thing on a daily to see the price levels down to 75 bucks a couple of times. We've bounced from this area. The one worrisome thing about all of these equities, folks, is you get the market sitting at 41.62. We were just trading at 3800, okay? You get a pullback in the S&Ps. You get a pullback in the general market, which is completely feasible when you've just bounced almost 10% in the overall market, right? I mean, yeah, we're just shy of about a 10% pop from the lows of the S&P. We've been down to 3807. A 380 point pop from there brings us to 4200. You pop 10% in the indices. So that's the most worrisome thing about any of these growth stocks. Roku, Zoom, you know, you try and buy it here. This market gets slammed. You're gonna get slammed as well. We pull up ARK 44.75. You were down to 35 bucks, okay, on some of those lows. But at some point, man, even Roku, it's one that I keep coming back to. I think they have 66 million customers they service. They are the portal to streaming for 66 million people. You think about the players in the streaming industry. If they could ever figure out a way to capitalize that type of reach to consumers, okay, which is completely possible, you jump over to the analyze tab. You're only talking about a company right now at 95 bucks that is valued with a market cap of $13 billion. For some context, Apple has 16.5 billion shares outstanding. So basically, Apple already today has gained $24 billion in market cap. For the market cap they gained today, they can almost buy two Roku's. Now they'd have to pay a premium. You get the point, but something to keep in mind with some of these stocks. Zoom's a different scenario. I don't see them getting purchased to the same degree because you jump over to Zoom, even at $110, you're still talking about a company at $33 billion valued, three times the size of Roku and you demand a premium, I'm sure. They make money, folks. The multiples just got a little silly, but let's just see the PE because it's not so silly anymore because they're not being valued for the growth that they were once were. Here we are. The PE ratio 21, 21 right now listed. I'm not sure if that's updated continually on everything, but 21, that's not a crazy PE for a company like Zoom. They might not be growing to the degree they thought they were when they were at, what, 590? 58880, but nonetheless, you're buying a company that's in a nice area that's making money with a PE of 21 and they're up 3.1% right now and they are the largest holding for ARC. But if the market gets hit, they get hit as well. It's not a coincidence. This thing was just down to a price of 79 bucks. You're $30 higher from the lows, but you were lifted by the earnings you got in late May. All right, market's catching a lift right now. You're up 29 points in the S&P. Now, putting the S&P back on a daily, something to keep your eye on, man. You know, when I saw this market turn around, you're right at the 382, folks. Keep your eye on the 382 and the 618. That's what I love to trade. It seems like at least if you have your back against the wall and you have a trading plan and you have a price level that you can keep in mind. Look at the 382, okay? And the scary thing about where this thing traded to is you traded up to a 382. Yes, you had some real volume, okay? On yesterday's day, but you're talking about volume on the ES of 2.3 million at the low. And what do we do? 2.1 million up there at the highs. You don't have to compare those two. But the scary part is that all you did is you traded back into the lows we had from February to March. That's all we did. All we did is got back to the lows of March when the market was already in trouble at 4,200. You traded all the way back to above 4,600 before you got a 700 point leg down, okay? Yes, we've got a pop. Yes, we're at the 382. Maybe you chop around a bit at this level. But boy, keep your eyes on it, folks, because if we ever get another leg down, okay? A to B, C to D, 4,800 to about 4,100. That line hits 4,101, okay? So you have about a 700 point A to B, C to D. A to B, A is 4,800. B point, about 4,100. The C point, we'll call it 4,650. Okay, you actually trade down 850 points. If you take where the bottom of the candles are potentially, pretty similar line of about 700 points down, 700 points down. Now what we did do here, checking out the Fibonacci scale of the first bounce, okay, that bounce got well above the 6,18. So maybe, I don't know what was going on there, okay? Well above it, all we've gotten to is the 382 folks of this move down. If you ever get another 700 point move down, you're talking about 3,500, okay? Now, you're talking about 3,500 potentially, and 3,500, if you take the entire move of the Fibonacci level, brings you right to the 50%, it also brings you right to the highs that we had from 2020, okay? Not saying it's gonna happen. We'll see how it goes with the Fed, but we have a Fed meeting coming up on June 14th and 15th, two weeks from today, I believe. We get another announcement, a press conference, and yeah, we come into the Fed trimming the balance sheet to the tune of 30 billion in treasuries, 17.5 in mortgage backed securities, and that's gonna double in three months, rates sitting at about 2.85% today. We'll see where that goes. S&Ps right now, up by 32 points, back to a 15 minute chart, right back to those highs. We got intraday yesterday for the S&Ps. We have the NASDAQ. Now, above those levels, I'm pretty sure. Yeah, 12,804, you're looking at the NASDAQ, climbing towards the overnight high we got over Memorial Day, about 12,883. Dollars up to 14. Let's see if CRM gave up some of that game. Nope, they're holding up well. CRM up 12.5%, up $20. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be coming back with our man, Teddy Kegstad. We're talking some forex, some commodities. We'll be right back. 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We have the S&Ps right now, positive by 19 points, giving back some of those gains we had coming into the opening mark, but still positive by about half a percent. Let's jump over to our man, Teddy Kegstad. We talk to Teddy folks every Wednesday at 40 past the hour. You can reach Teddy every trading day at his website, forex-trading-unlock.com. Teddy Kegstad, what's happening, man? Good morning, Tommy. Good morning. So we have a few moves going on in the forex market, Teddy. We have crude holding at some pretty lofty levels right now, coming off the Memorial Day weekend. We got some OPEC news potentially. Where do you wanna kick things off this morning? Well, why don't we talk about the crude and interest rate markets since they're definitely helping to drive what's going on in the currencies right now. We have a little flip in the dollar about to happen. So obviously crude is trending higher, higher move highs and higher move lows, especially on the daily and the hourly. I think we're gonna continue to batter resistance. I think we're gonna keep on probing those highs. I think we're gonna definitely start to, the momentum is gonna build. It's just gonna keep on building. I see us at 120 to 125 in the not too distant future without a doubt. So yeah, I got the chart up on a daily. I mean, we just got above those recent highs, right? The only thing on that chart really is that initial spike to 130. What we hit yesterday pretty close. We get to 120. 198, I have one on my chart. We get to 119. Yeah, the way we came out of the gate through the holiday with oil right now, the bulls are in place. That part of the, that is definitely, I think, I mean, higher move highs and higher move lows. What do you look at? What else can you say? Until we have some type of divergence at least from that to see some sort of neutral trade setup. I don't think that's gonna happen. Then we also have the Treasury bond market and the 10-year market where they had a very, very big sell-off. Now, the interesting thing is that the dollar has been basically in a downside correction for the past couple of weeks. So the euro has been a little bit stronger than it had been, but not that much. The pound's been holding up, but a lot of other currencies have gained a little bit of ground. So they're all in a corrective phase. I think as this week and the next week, we're coming into the end of that. So there still could be a dollar spike to the lows, but right now I think you're starting to find a bottom as far as with the dollar index, meaning that the euro is running out of gas. And that's the one, especially, it's one of the strongest currencies out there. It's the biggest in the dollar index. It's having trouble with resistance. Like you can't sustain a rally. It had a nice corrective move over the past couple of weeks, but the momentum is waning. And I think that we're starting to see that dollar strength is gonna come back in a very, very big way, especially as we head into the middle of June and into July. Yeah, that euro-US dollar, man. I had it on a daily. I put it on a weekly. I mean, just basically a straight drop since February 7th, from 1.15 almost to 1.0349. So 1.035. Yeah, that's a bounce, but I hear you. I mean, if I put a trend line on that chart, you're barely out of the downtrend. That's pretty steep on the euro-US dollar. And the major trends are coinciding right now very well where you have the dollar index correcting, you have the treasury bond market that's been correcting to the upside, and even with oil. So now as we have the treasury bond market that's starting to spike out and run out of gas to the upside and it looks like the bears are coming back, that's the same thing that's going on with the dollar. Those bulls or the dollar bulls are coming back. The interest rate bears are coming back. And if those two start to come together, you're gonna see that definitely the euro is starting to collapse again. And the US dollar, Swiss franc, I think that's one to really watch out for because it went above parity and had a very big correction, especially concerning if you look at most of the currencies, the yen and the Swiss have corrected the most, okay? And now when they go back to the upside, they're going to make new highs. We're gonna see the US dollar Swiss above parity again. So that's a pretty good intermediate term trade. I mean, this is not gonna happen over the next couple of sessions, but I guarantee you, especially the Swiss, it's not gonna just trend and grind higher like a quarter point over a day over the course of weeks when it is gonna start to move. And if you're gonna have a couple of days where you're gonna probably see like two basis handles without a doubt, as it starts to get towards parity. That is quite a chart, man, from April 4th, 92 cents to just above parity, and then back to 96 and a heartbeat. That's some volatility, man. Right, there's a nice swing trade there. You talked about the interest rate. Pretty remarkable. I had the chart of the 10 year even up here. You're sitting almost back a couple months to where we were as you chopped around a bit. I was talking about at the beginning of my program that the Fed is gonna be rolling off the balance sheet starting in June, that the numbers they're using. It's pretty interesting. I was talking to Matt Kevin Hink saying that they're gonna be rolling off, I think it's 47.5 billion total that's gonna be 30 billion in treasury securities and 17.5 in mortgage backed. But they can't, they have maturities expiring, Teddy, they're over the 30 billion. So they're still gonna be reinvesting like $18 billion this month of treasury securities. Do you see that baked in? I asked Kevin a similar question, because it's an important one, right? As in we're coming down the line here, do you see that baked in or do you see rates potentially rising higher? As we come into a Fed hiking cycle, and we got another meeting in two weeks from today, I think they announced. Yeah, actually I do. I think right now if the bonds actually do get a rally, it's gonna be one last head fake. I think that as we move into June and going into July, you're gonna see the bonds trend a lot lower. And remember these expirations that you're talking about also coincide with futures expiration. So you're gonna have futures, options, and cash deliverables expiring all at the same time. That's gonna cause a lot of crazy volatility. And I would say probably from around June 10th to about June 25th. You know, like that window of 14, 15 days, I think you're gonna see a lot of erratic moves in the treasury bond market. It's gonna be really hard to gauge direction during that time because you're gonna have an unloading of all these things. You know what I mean? So I mean, I know that's a dynamic. A lot of people don't understand. We don't need to get in the mechanics of it. But that timeframe of those expirations, especially with combined with the cash, I think is really gonna be a tough trade. So the trends are intact. You know, stick to your guns on that, but be very careful if you're an intraday trader during that window. Yeah, I found it amusing. I saw one article was talking about it. I think maybe the minutes of the recent Fed meeting and saying that a couple of the Fed governors were uncertain of how that type of a roll-off would go. And I say, if anybody says you're certain, man, you're crazy. How could you be certain you're rolling off something? You know, I mean, of course we should be uncertain. Anybody that tells you they know how it's gonna go, you at least gotta be prepared for some unforeseen situations when you're talking about that type of a roll-off, man. Well, Teddy, we appreciate the time. We appreciate the conversation as always, man. And we'll talk to you a week from today, man. Now, crude, let's finish it up. So we're sitting at, we got about 30 seconds, Teddy. Crude at about 120. You talked about it last week saying, you know, playing this market very difficult with the volatility when I asked you, maybe looking at some of the currencies. Could you talk about that again for a quick 30 seconds for the listeners that didn't check it out, how you might be able to trade? Crude, go ahead. Absolutely. That goes with the US dollar Yen trade, the US dollar Swiss trade for sure. As crude oil starts to rally, you're gonna see, that's giving strength to those two for sure. Be very careful with the US dollar Canada. That's gonna be very choppy as crude starts to rally. Awesome, man. And look at the chart of that Yen, man. Yeah, quite a bounce in the last few days to 129, 28 inching towards that 130 mark. Well, Teddy, man, we appreciate the time as always, the education. And we'll talk to you a week from today, man. Thanks, Tommy. See you next week. Okay, thanks. Folks, check Teddy out every trading day at his website, forex-trading-unlock.com does an outstanding job. And man, he's called this crude market outstandingly well, to say the least. Been a bull for a long time. Love to pull it up. It's at least a year, I think, going back. And we're sitting at 117.30. And yeah, I would say from a technical perspective right now, no signs of letting up in that crude market, sitting basically at highs only that we've come about above in that one spike to 130. And maybe we gotta challenge that high before crude can trade lower, sitting at 117.27. Back to the markets right now, S&Ps. You're sitting up by about 15 points, 41.60, 41.46. 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This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We get the S&Ps up 21 points right now on the Nasdaq 100 up, 160 right now. Dao giving up some of those gains right now, only up 100. Let's see how Salesforce is moving. They're gonna be impacting that. Whoo, those Dao stocks must be selling off, man, because Salesforce is a Dao component. You're now up 15% in that equity of $23.71. Meanwhile, you've had the Dao drop off some of the gains in there. Jumping around to some of the Fang stocks. Look at Amazon, man. Up 5% yesterday, up 4% today. Quite a rocket ship from the lows that we had recently. I don't know if we got a 19 handle. Did we get a 19 handle? That might be the low of 2025, was it? It was. 2025 was the low we got about a week ago. And just like that, you're up 25% off the lows to $24.96 on Amazon. We backed this thing up on a three-year weekly. You dive down to the pre-COVID levels and that's where we bounce, man. Just remarkable, these growth stocks had to completely reverse all the valuation gains we had prior to COVID, after COVID highs. You give it all back and then maybe we get a pop back over to Salesforce for a longer-term timeframe. They actually traded to where we were beginning of 2020. Let alone, you came into the pandemic in Salesforce at 195. You got below 160. This morning we're up about 15% for Salesforce and the NASDAQ kitchen to bid. Let's jump around to some of the Fang stocks. Apple up 1.7% right now. Maybe that's a cloud infrastructure deal with if Salesforce is seeing that type of growth, maybe that's gonna translate something. Not sure, but all the tech stocks, Microsoft man up more than 2%. Yes, you're still well off the highs, but those are some big numbers. Google, 2.8% of the upside. Let's see how Tesla's doing. Tesla shares up 1.2%. Some of the growth stocks I was talking about earlier. Zoom up about 2.7%. Roku up 2.6% right now. They were talking about the cannabis stocks in the den earlier, some great takes there saying it might be more difficult to make money in cannabis folks. And I think that might be the truth. And the chart might be saying that canopy down another 2.10%, that's a penny, is all you're doing. You're trading flat, but you're trading flat under five bucks for cannabis shares. We jump over to Delta. As they revised their outlook to the upside. How about that? Delta down 3% right now. They had some good numbers, man. The headline on a Delta raises revenue outlook with full planes and higher fares. They're down 3%. All right folks, thanks so much for starting your trading day with me. We got our man Basil, he's coming up next. Larry at 11, fast market at 12. You heard him, they're gonna be talking about Chewy. They'll be talking some Delta airlines coming up, live programming all day folks. Have a great Wednesday.