 It's a great pleasure to be here. This is my 12th time in Brazil in the last three years. So you can see how important Brazil is becoming in general. I live in Switzerland and it's really a great pleasure to see all of you here today. When I was doing the research, I did some research in Brazil and I got some pretty interesting facts. One of them being is that 20 million people in Brazil have joined what's called the middle class in the last three to four years. And the average per capita income in Brazil has increased, has doubled in the last 10 years. So there are a lot of really interesting things are happening in Brazil. In many ways, some people would say Brazil is a new America. That's probably an insult. I hope Brazil is a new Brazil. But I'll talk more about some of the other things that came out in this. First, I want to talk briefly about what a futurista actually is. In many ways, what I try to do, I try to touch the future that is three to five years away from now. And there's a great saying in China that says, if you want to know about the future, ask your children. And it's very true because children don't have the filter to have to make money and run a company that they are only concerned with what is happening at the moment. So my job is to bring the future to people and my company is called the Futures Agency and this is our motto, it wasn't raining when Noah built the Ark. In other words, what is going to happen in three to five years is very likely to fundamentally change the way that we do anything, privately and in business. For example, if you take the Kindle or the iPhone, none of that existed five or six years ago. It's now half the revenues of those companies is by devices that didn't exist. So in five years, we're likely to have to face the fact that the future isn't here already but we can see a little bit of it already and we do this for many companies around the world including quite a few here in Brazil. So the bottom line is Alan Kay, the founder of Intel of course, said the best way to predict the future is to invent it. So I want to add one thing to the slogan today, think real estate, I want you to feel the future. Because thinking about the future is intellectual exercise. We don't change until we get a really strong feeling of either force to change, the impendent difficulties or pain or we fall in love with an idea. So I'm hoping to give you some ideas that you can fall in love with today rather than think about it intellectually only. For this, I'm going to use some what I call my digital commandments. We'll give you some things to take home about and think about this is what I have to do to get into the future. First of all, we are heading into a digital society, a networked society as some people call it, a totally connected society where everything that happens is connecting to other things that are happening. So what you do in real estate is not disconnected from what's happening in cities or with transportation or with politics or with money, with credits, with banking. It's all interconnected and this is why we have to rethink what the future looks like in this regard and this is what we have to consider when we're looking into the future with digital eyes, so to speak. That's not to say that we're going to always be digital. Of course, in many facts you can say that being offline now has become a luxury. When I go away on vacation, I feel I don't connect. It's a luxury, it's a pleasure. That's becoming the new pleasure, a very interesting scenario in a digital society. But we have this mind shift. We have this mind shift from the industrial, the mechanical age and of course the age of information society, which is what we were in until a few years ago. The mind shift of industry means any growth, any profit at any cost is okay and worked out for a long time. Empires of companies, organizations, governments were standard. But today in the digital age, we have a new standard and that standard is what Tiffany Schlain in her movie calls interdependence. That means our business models have to connect with others. That means we no longer live in a silo, so if you're selling something, you have to be in technology. If you're a content company, you have to understand telecom. This is a trend that is exploding on a global level, interdependence. So when you think about what you do, it's not going to be disconnected from what the other guys do in other sectors. For example, real estate and banking is very closely connected. So a very important thing to understand, I think a digital world does not require only change. Change says, for example, you're going to use a mobile website. That's fantastic. That's good news, but that's only change. I'm talking about transformation. I'm talking about transformation like this. I'm talking about transformation. That means you will be a different company in five years than you are today. The car companies are now thinking about the future of what they do and they're saying it's not going to be about cars, we're going to be about mobility. That's this kind of change. And that is the change I think we should be looking at. For example, if you're looking what happens to the BC business because of tablets, this is dramatic change in three years. People have stopped buying PCs to some degree at least and using tablets. And this is the kind of change you're going to have in your industry. The kind of bubble that you're in now, everything is moving upward. What's going to happen in three years? What are the real trends beyond the obvious that everybody wants a house? Maybe not everybody should have a car, but everybody needs to have a place to live. There's two different things. So I think technology is the key driver of this transformation. And technology as you know is mind-boggling fast. Technology in fact now is as addictive as smoking or alcohol or other things. Not to mention. So technology has become so good that basically the mobile phone is our second brain. Think about this for a second. When you're sitting in a bar having a discussion, somebody wants to know what's the capital of Kazakhstan? Very important question. Then you can look it up right there. And if you want to look up whatever address or connection I'm meeting you, I can look up your profile, have augmented reality, Google Now. These devices are our second brain. There's good things and bad things about that. Clearly we won't touch on the bad things today. As Ray Kurzweil says, another futurist who does the Singularity University, talking about what's happened, the world is exponentially fast with technology. Keep in mind when you count exponentially, you're counting 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 and so on. When you count 100 times, you get to over 1 billion. When you count 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, it's a linear. That's what humans do. I don't think faster because I use Twitter. I don't understand things faster because I read lots of books on the Kindle. I mean, I have a limited way of getting... I'm linear as a person. But here's the point. I think Brazil, and in general of course the world, is now at the pivot point from 4 to 8. The next step is in 5, it's 8. So when you're looking at Brazil and you're saying, okay, people, 10% of people in Brazil use the mobile internet, the next step is not going to be 15% or 20%, it'll be 40% or 50%. Radical, exponential change. We don't have time to wait for that to become obvious because when it's obvious, then it's kind of late. Look at the newspaper business. Three years ago, everybody said in Brazil, we don't have this problem that people don't read printed newspaper. Well, look at it today, right? Now we know they're switching to digital. It's obvious. So anticipating this is crucial. In Brazil, the growth of the internet is still the largest growth rate in the world. It's amazing statistical if you're looking at what's happening in terms of connectivity. And what is happening here in Brazil, in my view, is if we're looking at this curve happening very, very soon, we're right before the takeoff point. That also means, of course, cheaper internet, cheaper devices, things to increase infrastructure, to improve the performance of the networks, which is a big problem here because everybody wants it. And so Peter Drucker, the management guru says, the greatest danger in times of change and turbulence is not the change itself, but to act with yesterday's logic. And I know a good thing about yesterday's logic because I worked in the music business for a long while. I was a musician and producer, and I wrote a book about the future of music. And I have yet to see as many people in the world who act with yesterday's logic as the leaders of the music business. That logic being quite simple, that if somebody copies a song for free, it's bad, and if they don't get to do that, then we make more money. Well, you know that logic is dead. Not true. So ask yourself, what is yesterday's logic? Here's a couple examples. Yesterday's logic would be we don't need a mobile website because people have computers at home. We put up a paywall for people to listen to check out our stuff on the internet. We force customers to do things. We don't make a video available worldwide. We use old-fashioned advertising, and to promote what we do, we yell at people. The last slide. That's yesterday's logic. Advertising and marketing with yesterday's logic was primarily based on interruption. So the louder you scream, the more you do it, the more you sell. And it worked. Interrupt enough, sell enough. But the future of advertising is engagement. It's the opposite. It's not yelling, it's attracting. So there's a huge change there. Acting with yesterday's logic, not to say the television is yesterday's logic, but some of it could be. It brings relevance. Yesterday's logic is relevance. Look at the music business. They picked up on the fact that people want to have music in the cloud very late, and they're half as big now. Actually, there's lost 70% of revenues for a long time. As you know, of course, real estate is the biggest fastest growing web category in Brazil. So ask yourself, what is yesterday's logic? One of this logic is that people out there, the 214 million people in Brazil, they're just consumers. What I'm proposing to you, that these people are the people formerly known as consumers. As you can see in the recent activism in Brazil, people are no longer willing to just take what you give them. This is a global phenomenon, not just in Brazil. They're people formerly known as producers, and now they're asking us to get overcatch. So this is happening on a global scale. The past really is having big companies control consumers and big governments and, of course, big technologies. Well, but the future is a reverse. The future is about all of the aggregate of the customers telling us what they want. And they can do that now with $10 devices. I'll tell you like the one that you have now. In India, it's $10. I think it's $40 and the cheapest one is $10. People are doing this globally. Now we're mixing this up. We're going from what used to be called buyer-beware to seller-beware. And that's a substantial change. We're talking about consumer empowerment. For us as buyers, this is great because, for example, when we use TripAdvisor, we can go and rate at a hotel and do some damage. But as businesses, we are the sellers where we have to be aware of what people can do now, which is to rate us to forward to share things that we've said. It's a different world. In this old world, television made us consume things. Our job was to buy stuff that we saw on television. On the mobile, our job is to engage and to talk to each other and to share things and to find out stuff that's not just about buying. So here's the elephant in the room for many companies. In three to five years, 50% of all internet access will be on mobile devices. Again, ask your kids what that means. That means if you're not mobile-optimized or you're not mobile, you don't exist, basically. And when I look around at websites in Brazil, I tried yesterday with the iPhone, 95% of them I could not read. So clearly that's step number one. It's all about this. It's all going to be funneled in this direction. So when you think about real estate, what are the key trends that I'm going to share with you? What is the future of what you have here already? Future is mobile. Clearly you guys know this, but when? You have to be the judge of that. How quick that will take you? But we're seeing the stats moving quickly in one direction. Here in Brazil, in terms of smartphone tablet usage. My first commandment, be mobile. Do an exercise. Switch off your computer. Live the next three to four weeks. Only use the mobile. See what that does to your life. I'm not talking about a blackberry here. I'm talking about a real mobile. Just kidding. I still have a blackberry too. But anyway, be mobile. When you live a mobile life, then you know what your customers do. Your customers do that. So you have to actually be able to follow this. This will be a good thing. It's not that we can get addicted to mobility as well. So here's some context. First, Brazil, as you know, urbanization is a global factor. Cities are getting bigger. People are moving into cities. Clear trend on a worldwide level, you see this here. But interesting in Brazil is not just Rio and Sao Paulo. It's 25 cities that have this trend. It's not just the really big cities. So you have centralization and you have decentralization. People don't just move to one or two cities, but to 20. Which is an interesting trend for real estate. I think looking at Brazil here, 95% of Brazilians in 2045 supposed to live in urban areas. I don't know if you agree with this research, but I think that's an interesting fact. A global trend that will also come to Brazil, which is already happening in Europe and the U.S. and in Asia, is what is referred to as acid-light lifestyles. Acid-lighting a lighter life. Owning less. It's hard to imagine now because now you want to own something. But there's a great slideshow by Mary Meeker from Kleiner Perkins, comes out every year. It's called The State of the Internet. And she points out a couple of things here, how people own less. For example, they have less space. They use car sharing and mobile apps to share cars. Acid-light employment, where companies hire people on a freelance basis. Education, of course. It has shifted from CDs to Spotify or from movies to Netflix, same thing. So there's a question I have for you. Do you think real estate will be impacted by people living a lighter life? Or is that a later phase? You have to be the judge of that for Brazil. Smaller, lighter, faster, cleaner is a trend. So you have to be the judge of that, how that works here in Brazil. But I think that is clearly a trend we're going to see in the near future. What we're having is fragmentation. People like different things, whether it's about media or consumption or vacation, the long tail, what used to be called the long tail. Forty-five percent of people around the world, including Brazil, travel to more different locations than ever before, not just the top locations. People are fragmenting in all different directions. This is very tough for media, traditional media, because the audience goes like this. So if you're looking at this, basically this lifestyle fragmentation, that we have kind of lost this way of getting a hold of everyone. Now we have to specialize. We have to use a sprinkler system, not just a watering can. What's happening with transportation? Big problem here in Sao Paulo, right? Took two hours and forty-five minutes to the airport the other Friday. I could have walked quicker, I suppose. I had a suitcase. Anyway, so the things that are happening about transportation, this is going to be a big deal here as well. We're talking about, of course, electric vehicles. We're talking about car sharing. We're talking about self-driving cars. We're talking about public cars that are shared. We're talking about all the change to ownership, bike sharing, electronic cars, connected cars, rental cars, interconnected cars, all of these things that we're seeing in this economy that's moving to a place, for example, a bus, latest hyperloop, where you can travel in a pipeline. These are trends that we're going to see. The biggest trend here is what's called collaborative consumption. People are consuming together rather than owning each. The biggest trend in Europe right now for cars is not to have a car, but to use bicycles or public transportation. So this is a trend that I think we're going to see here as well in the very near future. The other trend is the real-time trend. Everything is going to real-time, which means when I look for a place to rent or to buy, I'm not interested in what people did last year or in the whole context. I'm interested in now. What do people feel about neighborhoods now? Real-time, live-stream, intelligent information. When I googled for a restaurant in London and I wanted to go to Sushi Place, I'm looking to get Michelin, unless I'm looking to go to that kind of place, because information is five years old or maybe on the web it's one year old. I'm looking at yesterday. So when I use Twitter or Google Now or any of those platforms, sometimes when I ask for a Sushi restaurant, I go to a place and people are still sitting there that recommended the place. That's real-time information. So everything moving to real-time, if your information isn't real-time and updated, people will eventually stop looking at you. And of course, that's usually done with apps, real-time, everything is a trend that we're seeing in all those regards. Much has been talked about social media, but let me say one thing about social media. Social media is not building a better mousetrap. It's not cheap marketing. It's not getting other people to do the work for you. Social media is all about engagement. It's about actually creating meaningful context. If you're looking at social media and saying, let's find a cheap way that people can pitch for us, you're in deep trouble. Because it's exactly the opposite. If you're looking at these graphs in Brazil, I mean, as you know, Brazil is crazy about social media. I mean, how people engage, social media, over here, average minutes spent. I mean, clearly, my next commandment doesn't say so, but it should be commandment. It's interaction before transaction. People have to get to know you first and to trust you and to appreciate you before they buy something from you. That's not you, but it's extreme now. I would propose to you, if people are going to buy a house from you, if they don't have a feeling about value and brand about you, they're much less inclined to move forward. It has to do, of course, with trust. So social, local, mobile, this is sort of the war cry now around the world and into selling things on the web. Clearly, that's the way forward for a lot of different places. So the commandment actually is, all commerce is social. It sounds stupid, of course. Ever since the Stone Age, all commerce was social. But we have forgotten one thing because we're obsessing with saying, you know, I don't give a damn what you talk about or who you are. Just push this button and buy something. It doesn't work. You have to engage. You have to have an actual meaningful conversation. It's not about short-cutting the meaning. It's about expanding that meaning. So advertising is greatly impacted on this, by this. We have this idea of a watering can, covering everybody in the world with the same message and eventually they break down and they take a look. This is what television and radio and print did very successfully for a long time. But now it's about sprinkler systems. It's not about reaching that entire crowd, but only this one flower. Reaching this buyer that is interested in this place at that time under these circumstances, under those following parameters with recommendations and all these things together. So advertising is going from pushing, pushing and yelling, and in many cases lying, outright lying because advertising basically told you many things that really weren't true. But now it's about pulling, involving and sprinkling, finding a path into the precise place where you want to be. And digital, of course, is the leader in that part. To some degree, it's actually very scary how you can be found through your data. And this is something we have to also tackle. So another commandment that I would propose to you is to observe and listen. You take a look what people are actually doing, what they're thinking, what they want, I mean, observing and listening is the first commandment of marketing, of course. But if we're looking at this context, it's something that we're going to see increasingly. Sorry, this issue about what happens with marketing is it's a lot less about having distribution, you know, having retail outlets than about having mindshare, having a brand, attention. In the movie business or the music business or even the book business, it's completely like this. Yes, you can buy books in a store, but Amazon sells more books on the Kindle than it sells in print. Netflix has 43 million subscribers, I think, roughly. There is no physical interaction, there is no outlet, right? It's a brand. So the question I have for you, how are you going to use your current distribution? I think many of you have offices, you know, real actual offices. How do you tie that into having a mindset, finding a door into your buyer's head? Again, this is also a scary part, because, you know, if you are the person with the head, you don't necessarily want a brand to come inside, right? So it's a permission issue. This is why data control and respect for privacy is so important, because if I abuse this and come too much inside of your head without permission, you hate me, right? So very important to keep that in mind, is about attention and participation. So here are some examples. The first example is how this happens. Here's a video, this is a really great thing by Nike, basically showing the whole message, you know, find your greatness. And this is how they get attention, this is how they raise the brand. Amstel, a beer company in Budapest, makes people stand in front of a box for three minutes, and if they stand really quiet and do nothing, it's out. So they're trading for your attention a bottle of beer. Ducati has an iPhone app, an iPad app, that allows people to build the motorcycle that they're going to buy, and also share with their friends and build it together. Red Bull, I'm sure you know, gets our attention with adrenaline. The guy jumping off from space from 25 miles in the sky. So examples of shift from distribution to attention. This is the kind of marketing that we're going to see in the future. Visuality, using images, not just video, but images is a trend, you know, 80% of internet traffic in the next five years will shift to video. This is the trend for Brazil, you know, video is huge, and Brazil has the largest growth of video worldwide in those two years, you know, 2012. So video is a major shift, and what does that mean? The advancement is, become visual. Not just text. Video, images, illustrations, graphs, all these things, infographs. People are becoming visual because the medium supports it. Very, very important trend for the future. Visuality example, as Kevin Kelly says from the founder of Wired, we're moving from orality, from speaking, to literacy, to visuality. We don't lose literacy. Our kids could very well not be interested in reading because they get too many videos. So that's another flip side of the coin, but what's happening with visuality is really powerful. Hyundai has a driveway decision maker where you can picture the car standing in your driveway using an app. So you can imagine what the car would look like in your house. You know, it's a gimmick, of course, but it's, you know, Moleskine does it on Facebook with all the variations of the do. Shoppers are reinventing these things, the Nike Women's Channel. You can imagine what furniture looks like in your house using this app, but it's all about visuality. Augmented reality, of course, clearly a way for the future. So visuality is huge, and I think video is absolutely crucial. In fact, you know, if I want to go to a hotel worldwide and I don't find a video that somebody made about, I'm not going. I don't care what TripAdvisor says. I care about what they say and I review on TripAdvisor. But if I can't see images or visuals, I'm not interested. And it's so easy to do. So definitely the way forward for this. Data. You guys all know this word, or this meme, big data. Not to be confused with Big Brother. I hope it's not the same thing, at least. Big Data means this. It's really quite simple. It means the flow of information that's happening on a different scale. Data is becoming more important than oil. Data is the new oil that's been said for the last six years, but it's very true. So maybe Brazilians should not focus too much on exporting resources, but exporting or using data. So what's happening with data is that we're getting this huge amount of growth of value, variety, volume, and speed, velocity. This is why it's so important. If you're in the business of selling anything, you're in the business of big data. You have to understand what people are doing, where they're doing it. You have to get permission to use their data. You have to find out how you not violate their privacy. You have to connect with them using data, because that creates very smart business intelligence. As the slide shows, that's how you build your future. That's how you find out what's really happening. So I think this is one of the really important things. You're using data for business intelligence, using it for real time, real place, social, and predictive analysis. You can use that data to predict where people want to move in one year. I'm not kidding. It's something that the fortune cookie is finally with us here. We can actually say, with great accuracy, the trends that we're seeing in population and what they want. So this is kind of the future scenario. In many cases, there are lots of issues that we have to solve, and I'm sure Google will help addressing those as well. But humans and big data interfaces and smart intelligence software. Let me give you a piece of warning. Selling is not about data. Data will help you to sell. Selling is about the human connection. It's what I call the humor rhythm, not just the algorithm. If I treat my buyers or customers as an algorithm, as machines, they could care less about what I do. This is really about the human connection as part of this. So this is the landscape of big data that you need to be involved with. There's many things that may be science fiction, next-generation interfaces, touch screens, gestures, voice control, robots, artificial intelligence. Well, when you use Google Now, and it tells you that your next meeting is late because there's a traffic jam, and you should take an umbrella because it's raining, that's artificial intelligence. Take the next step, the next five years, and it will be mind-bogglingly accurate for many things that are coming towards us. So another commandment, join big data. On the other hand, don't get obsessed with data and forget that there's people behind it. So it's actually two commandments. Because your customers are not algorithms. They create algorithms and they're useful, but you can't reduce a person to an algorithm. You can't sell anything that way. Or maybe a few things you would. A couple of last points, and then I'll get off the stage. Key point that's happening on a global scale, people are becoming socially conscious and environmentally conscious. This is a key trend in Brazil, especially in Brazil. If you look at what's happening, this research from Nielsen shows that people really care about what's happening about what they call the triple bottom line. So we're living in a world that has to be social, environment, economically friendly, bearable, viable, people, planet, profit. Three things. If you focus only on profit, you will lose everything you have ever invested. Because it doesn't work. It's short-lived. Keep that in mind when you're looking at what you're building and how you're building and where you're building. The biggest clothing companies in the world have joined an organization called Sustainable Apparel Coalition. How to sustain what people wear and how they wear it and what they buy for it. Patagonia, for example, is a lead on this. And the ad campaign last year in America said, or two years ago said, don't buy this jacket. That was the ad campaign. So think about what that means. I think in the future we're going to see this default. Sustainable becomes the default requirement for everything. Housing, transportation and food. Don't shortcut this because it may be a little bit cheaper if you do, but it's short-lived. Just as a word of advice. Take a long-term sustainable view in how you do business. So I'll have to wrap this up. The key terms here. All commerce is going mobile, dynamic, real-time, real-place, into the cloud, social, personalized and anticipatory. On the flip side of this, how do we remain independent of machines is a big question that you also will have to answer eventually. But this is how selling happens in the future, in this direction. And Brazil is right on the take-off point. I think we're looking at the next two or three years to bring a substantial swing in this direction. So a short summary. From buyer-beware to seller-beware. You are the sellers, be aware. You're no longer in control of what the customer can do. Look to the music business to find out what happened there. Embrace interdependence. Build business models with your partners that last. Resist the temptation to act in short-term interest. That's when you build, when you sell in a customer relationship. This is not about mouse traps. If you build a better mouse trap, you are the mouse. You will be in your own trap because that's what we're seeing on a global level. Sustainable is the new normal. This is not just something you do because some people are interested. This is the new normal. Yesterday's logic is doomed. Yesterday's logic become a publisher. Just kidding. New logic discovery is crucial. Mobilize everything today because that is where everything is going. Embrace the sharing economy. This is something that's a little bit early in Brazil. But a thing that's going to happen is a major trend you should anticipate now. How will people share housing and housing situations? And finally, visuality. The future is gearing up in video images, augmented realities, gamification, using technology to get closer to your customers. So thanks very much for your time. You will be able to download this PDF from the website later if you follow me on Twitter or go to featuresgird.com to download my stuff. I have a folder where you can download all of my books. It's called GirdCloud. It's a shortcut to my Dropbox account. On GirdCloud you can download all of my stuff, including the slideshow sometime later today. Thanks very much for listening.