 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network We have got some massive games between title contenders coming up in week number three across the NFL We're gonna break down those games where we're seeing some vetting value within them and lay out our favorite beds across week three in The NFL this is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonness. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here As I am each Thursday by Ryan Williams checking out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W Ryan, I'm sorry that the Houston Chicago game did not make the rundown for this week Maybe if they get a rematch like super we can talk about that game But yeah, not in the list for this week a couple other good games though. How you doing today? Oh, I'm doing great Jim, you know, we're just trying to give the people what they want They want they want to hear the picks they want to hear the leans and and we're hoping that we can be as successful in week Three as we were the first two weeks. So I mean you're on a heater So, you know, we're just gonna we're gonna try to I'm gonna try to lean on you because I was not as good as you last week So I gotta I gotta pick up some of the Ryan vibes to pick up the slack here week number three The good thing is I feel kind of okay about how week three is looking so far got some good movement on the early week Bet so we're feeling alright. We'll see if that actually translates to results or not Not sure we'll dive into weeks biggest games and outline some other things on our minds for week three And just one second at first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Our college football week for betting preview with dr. Ed Feng is now posted up on the covering the spread podcast feed and on Fandals YouTube page check out both those video version and audio version wherever you get your podcast or your videos Be sure to check that out with Ed will also be player prop preview tomorrow JJ Zacharyson getting a rundown of his favorite props for week number three as well that also here on the covering the spread podcast feed and On the fan will you to page twisted tea and fad or have joined forces to bring you a one-of-a-con contest series It gives you a chance to compete for your share of thousands of dollars in psych credit introducing twisted teas college football picks a Sports betting focused contest series that is entirely free to play the contest is simple each college football game Will be assigned money line the spread and total markets with assigned points to each market All you have to do is make six selections based on those three markets and earn points for each correct selection You may if at the end of the day your score ranks among the best in the contest You'll be eligible for your share of psych credit head to fandal.com Slash twisted tea picks and make your picks and reminder Please drink responsibly fandal.com Slash twisted tea picks and before I dive into the biggest games of this week Ryan Do you want to pick your brain quickly about how you kind of? Lay out your thought process on Offenses that have struggled through two weeks one week. I get it two weeks a little bit concerning the Bengals Broncos Optis slow starts to see your other slow starts for other big offense as well Let's talk about how you view those teams heading into week three What are you doing to try to decide? Whether the early season issues are legit the small sample issues are legit or if we should expect them to bounce back What were we expecting to be in the preseason? Yeah, so I think we'll we'll start off with Denver to start because I know Denver was you know They get Russell Wilson Bucks are moving them, you know people are thinking Denver could be a super bowl favorite All they needed was a quarterback to get them over the hump look at their offense look at the defense And it's just that simple, but I mean I Hate taking Pete Carroll side in anything, but it's just like maybe Seattle was like ahead of the curve on like, you know Getting you know saying that hey look at this draft. That's upcoming. There's all of these studs quarterbacks coming from college Russ is getting a little bit older and and we kind of have seen that I mean he had a tough match up week one against his former team on the road and then you're looking at You know a Houston team, but just the points, you know what we're expecting the let let Russ cook season That it that that's gone like we just got to let that let that subside And I just got to be taking the teams on the other side of Denver right now until Denver can prove to me that they can handle Lee, you know take on some of these teams and maybe maybe it's one of those things where You know Seattle, it's Geno Smith We weren't you know, we were expecting them to kind of handle them easily and that there wouldn't be much there Houston the same type of thing. Oh, this team should just be blowing them out Maybe they're playing down to their competition Jim So I would love, you know, the 49ers game is going to be interesting with Jimmy G back Then they get Vegas then they get indie and then the Chargers So I think this stretch is going to tell us a lot about Denver and maybe they play up to their competition Now the Cincinnati Bengals real quickly, you know, this is a team That they're getting off to a historically bad start when you're talking about being in the Super Bowl From the previous year and coming in and starting off on two now in weeks three When a team has started 0 and 2 and made the playoffs They are favorable in that in that week three matchup and you can tell that the sharps and the public They're all over Cincinnati right now. I mean the money is like at 90 I believe in this game against the Jets and I expect it You know, that's where it should be. That's fair because they they have everything on the wall to write the ship They just got to figure out how to get joe burrow to get the get rid of the ball more quickly The offensive line has not done him any favors even though they got new pieces in there But they still have explosive weapons across the board. I know you're a joe mixing guy They still got chase. They still got Higgins. They still got tyler void This defense needs to be a little bit better and this is you know, the Jets Eat going out with joe flacco last week But this is probably the prime get right spot 14 that had to start like this So I think that we do see Cincinnati come to the mode and remember Jim last year Like people were pretty much not really on the Cincinnati bandwagon until it came down to those last two weeks Of the regular season in fantasy playoffs when joe pearl magic came through I mean he he's still a young quarterback as opposed to russ I still think he's got a left a lot left in the tank and we could be looking back on these two weeks Just in laughing at ourselves that we weren't you know high on the Cincinnati bangles going forward Yeah, I'll need mixing this week for dfs. So slight request that he go nuts this week He mentioned the public and the sharps liking the bangles this week that number did move to five and a half I think that was the correct move. I had a 5.3 So it's a stay away five and a half for me But 86% of the money is on the bangles side of the spread here and 77% of the bets So like you said that does back up what you were saying about how everyone's on the bangles So not only even a by-law spot if everyone is on it, unfortunately But the market the market catching up and I think correctly evaluating at least that offense I think they might be overreacting a tiny tiny tiny bit to Denver But I mean kind of to your point It's weird that you've got a team facing a quarterback who or a team that just lost their starting quarterback And somehow the opposing team may have more continuity across their entire team Especially with uh, George Kittle potentially back for this week Let's dive in now to our key games four week number three starting off with a huge battle in the afc east That is the bills at the dolphins bills six and a half point favorites total 52 and a half This was five and a half yesterday. It was six at open Then back to five and a half now bet back to six and a half So a lot of movement here a lot of interest in this game the dolphins Did light things up in the second half against the ravens But they're facing a bills team that has lit up everyone for ever since the playoffs last year effectively So Do you buy enough into the dolphins here to potentially bet them or are the bills covering once again? Yeah, it's it's just hard to bet against the bills. Uh at this point I mean when you're looking at josh allen's history Against the miami dolphins He's only lost to them once in his entire career and buffalo in these games has been winning on an average victory of 19 points Against this team. I mean and you're looking at these past matchups with tua playing You know because before it was ryan fits magic who is getting who is getting the brunt of this but uh They they just haven't been they just haven't been able to get over this hump Whether it's you know bringing everybody down there to miami Which we've seen on social media like the dolphins are all in on playing at home at this time And they want to come down and you know the weather they feel like is at their advantage It does not matter to josh allen. Um, and you know if they're gonna be shellacking teams, you know on In the public eye, you know on prime time then I gotta you know be taking them here When this game is kind of buried so to speak in the sunday slate I do I do like You know toa to still be aggressive in this matchup and they do have pieces that match up Especially with that secondary for buffalo being banged up as is so the total is interesting to me too Even at 52 and a half I do think that this game has a chance to go bananas and we know that buffalo I mean anytime buffalo is on the field this team's gonna have an applied Team total of over 28. So you're expecting, you know for touchdowns to come from the buffalo side in any way Shape or fashion if you know toa can muster up to three four touchdowns on his side I mean you can talk yourself into this game going way over the 52 and a half Yeah, so one thing you mentioned was the injuries and that's true for both sides in the secondary specifically Which could lend itself towards the total here Xavier and howard did not practice on wednesday. He's got a groin injury. He suffered that against the raven So he's a question mark there, but then you look at the bill's injury report and they have one two three Uh four different guys in their secondary on the injury report Now some of those guys were full practice and stuff like that But mike a high didn't practice dain jackson didn't practice They're pretty banged up The one concern I have with the total is wins because right now it's at 12 miles per hour I have no concerns about josh allan ripping it through that if it's not like 40 Like it wasn't that patriots game last year. He's probably gonna be okay Two was more of a question mark in the wind Um from that perspective. So my numbers do show value on the dolphins here I will not bet that I don't care. I'm not gonna do it like it We need probably seven and a half for me to bite and I don't think we're gonna get there So i'm not going at that. Um, I think the total of 52 and a half is interesting Is that high is that low enough where you would bet the over here or is it more or so elene on your perspective? The total gem at 52 and f. Yeah, I I would bet it. I mean, um, I I just think you know, there's teams that I just always i'm looking at totals and i'm like Can I talk myself into this and I mean we talked about I talked about the baltimore in miami game last week Of going over whatever that number was 44 But you're just looking at the quarterbacks and how the offense is like to play on each side of the ball And we know that we we know that with buffalo. I mean if you're not getting, you know, 53 54 number That's when I start to get a little bit weary. Um when the number's over that It's just like they're going to put up points and so who's the other team on the other side This isn't you know, we're not talking about the houston texans or the chicago bears We're talking about the dolphin to you know, just put up 28 points in one quarter Last week. So I think you know and buffalo Gets out to either way a buffalo gets out to the lead or if miami somehow gets out to an early lead We know they're going to be aggressive and that's what I like to look at when i'm looking at the total number Yeah, for sure Like I have my reservations around the wind But when you combine the secondary injuries with how past heavy Both these teams are neither team can run the football and I think that's a huge benefit for a total in this game Let's move now to the eagles that commanders eagles Six and a half point favorites here total 47 and a half We talked about the eagles team on our monday night preview, but like when I was watching this game Every snap it felt inevitable. They were gonna get 10 yards like every single time Like that offensive line was just moving dudes. They're healthy right now Uh jalen hurts looks fantastic whether it be as a rusher or as a passer So my question for you ryan is can the man commanders keep this thing close? Or the eagles was too dominant for us to even consider betting the commander side of this one Yeah, I mean this is this is a number that makes me feel uncomfortable jim I said, you know on the monday show that we would kind of know a lot about either team of the eagles And and vikings and to a certain extent I feel like we do I mean the eagles just were handling that match up so So favorably and you love that they can you know, they don't need to do a lot As not really a short week But a short ish week as the way that the commanders are handling the run like and you know If they don't need to be past heavy the eagles that is I could see them You know establishing the three headed monster of miles sanders boston scott and kenef gainwell, so While I don't I don't really Like the number, you know, I get why the public is all over this taking the philly side of things because we just saw What they did, you know on prime time in monday night football against a competitive team Now where I do come in on this game jim is also the over here the total is 47 and a half like this is I just wrote down in my notes like you just have to hammer the over in this because of how Carson wintz plays. I mean we've seen this time and time again philly indy now at washington This dude will be aggressive regardless. He could go out there and throw four picks and be different You know, minnesota was doing this They returned the ball over and then they try and get dablin cooked the ball and then he's not getting anywhere And then they just they didn't get into a ribbon on offense This is they're they're just going to abandon the run Absolutely if philly gets out to an early lead here and they're just going to say, okay, carcel wintz Like throw it up to terry throw it up to jahan see what you can do And this this total really should be coming at like a 48 number 48 and a half And it's it's just too low for me. So that's where i'm leaning in this game Yeah, both these teams are pretty pass heavy based on like a pass right over expectation those kinds of numbers And I think that's always conducive towards an over two and I think that it makes sense with the commanders Like they always I think at their core like a turner led offense wants to pass heavy But they couldn't really do that when their quarterback was taylor hynneke Carson wintz despite his flaws is someone who is Better for that type of approach then uh, but he's also just like an over quarterback because like you said the mistakes Lead to overs but also these spikes the things he can do well Lead to overs too. So with the way this commander's defense is played so far I have no objections to that. I think that makes a lot of sense My numbers have this as eagles by 3.31. So which which would indicate again value on the commander's side But similar to that dolphin's number. I just can't do it like I can't I can't pull the trigger on that like I will take less value if I feel better about the situation I don't feel good about this one like my my priors were high on the eagles coming into this year And the prior is the largest chunk of my model right now. It's it's a hefty hefty chunk of it. So Despite it being high on the eagles there despite the early season data loving them as well I can't get six and a half that could mean that I'm just a dummy for not taking the commanders here That could be the takeaway here, but I don't know. I just can't get there like it's I don't know if you have this but like for me when I I think about The idea of betting the commanders. I just think back to Monday night snap 10 yards snap 10 yards snap 10 yards So that eagles offense and I can't get there. So yeah, I think that does lend itself towards the over as well To your point earlier Yeah, and absolutely and the public is actually agreeing with you jim and your numbers on taking the washington side there's the percentage um The percentage of the of the bets are actually going to the washington side of things and the money is actually split evenly As it stands right now at 50 50. So everybody's having to struggle with this game But the eagles, you know, let's just give them credit where credit is due I mean, they deserve to have this number right now. Jalen hurts looks absolutely fantastic The defense has been absolutely incredible. Like I do think Carson wince might be seeing nightmares depending on how this game goes Either way like they could squeak out a win maybe but like he's he's going to be in trouble Maybe turn in the ball over multiple times here So I I I would probably lean eagles at this number because it seems like we're we're going to If if they are able to win this game handedly, we're going to start getting like favorable numbers over seven for eagles And some favorable matchups going forward. Yeah, Carson wence is an agent of chaos Which means you want to bet into more like volatile markets So if you are out there listening and you believe in the commanders, I'd bet the money line instead of the spread Plus 240 the money line there. I'm not doing that either just to be fully transparent but If you believe in Carson wence and you want to take advantage of the volatility go for the higher upside market and that is The money line with the commanders there and I'm showing value there as well for the record But again, I'm not going to bet it because I just have nightmares about Monday night Let's finish up here with the packers at the buccaneers bucks one and a half point favorites total 50 or 41 and a half and I was joking on twitter on sunday about adding a vibes Like meter into my model because of the cardinals and because they had bad vibes and we're losing at that time And I was tilting they did win but I feel like with the bucks Maybe I actually do want to add in the vibes The vibes meter because vibes real bad right now, right? And they are not good They're missing a ton of guys right now. Mike Evans suspended Chris Godwin Julio Jones didn't practice wednesday scottie miller brashad perriman rustle gauge all limited dot mitsmith didn't practice But the bucks still point and a half favorites here. So Can they overcome those entries or are you riding with green bay? It was good to you on sunday night Yeah, I mean Listen, I'm gonna take the buck side here and it doesn't feel good Jim You know, things are not good down there in temple bay, but they still got brady And so when we're looking at how to decipher this matchup I'm just going back to what the historical data is telling me and you know Rogers and brady when they meet up the past four matchups brady's had his number three and one against the spread And brady is a favorite under a field of goal. He's 11 and three I believe all time against the spread as well And you're looking at erin roger's numbers like this guy does not turn the ball over But in the past two games against Tampa bay two interceptions and then one interception So averaging one and a half interceptions in the past matchups. That's that's crazy compared to what his career number is I gotta like the bucks here and the reason being jim is that the way this defense is playing right now is absolutely Incredible like if they can be you know, if they can be healthy At most of their pieces on the defense side of the ball They give roger's trouble and they're gonna give these backs trouble and that's been the best thing That green bay has had going for them with these wide receivers still getting acclimated I mean outside of randall cob who's like been 18 years in the league and still catching passes You know, where's rob gankowski to come out of retirement for brady, but uh, you know this They're gonna have a hard time getting a j dillon and erin jones To establish the run against this defense. Maybe they start using them in some past catching abilities to get the ball out Quickly, but I do like the Tampa Bay side of things. Um, just where the data is pointing at at one and a half Yeah, I think it's it's situation. Right. This is a complete toss up right now. It's the bucks by point one three points So the money line is actually minus one or two on the packer side, which means there's no value there I don't see any value on the on the bucks money line either I think that it's a stay away from me if maybe we get david bach to yari ruled out again for the packers That could be a situation that would lend itself towards the buck side, but Vibes meters real bad and I can't uh after the cardinal stuff even though they did come back me I can't bet against bad vibes so or bet on bad vibes So a little bit wary a little bit wary cluster injuries also worry me, but who are we to doubt? A uh suburban kid scottie miller from barrington, Illinois Obviously, who needs julia when you got scottie miller, right? Yeah, I'll tell you what scottie miller better You know, he better be watching the replacements and get that stick them that they Put on the hands there because the way that these guys were dropping the ball last week in brady's reaction You know, he's going to be I'm sure practice has been Quite interesting for the receiving crew this year, but it is funny jim when you're talking about these two teams It's like the spider-man meme, you know Yeah, it is Have a bay and green bay is pretty much the same team without you know, these wide receivers who are playing for them Like no debaute atoms though mike evans. Um, they got all of these Young pieces and and players who are no names catching the ball from these legendary quarterbacks. It's it's pretty funny I think I would actually go the little giants route with like the the pine tar full pine tar on the hands Give what happened tyler johnson after the playoff game last year We had a couple drops and then got jettison to houston. I don't want that So i'm going full pine tar. We're not we're not settling for just stick them. It's pine tar Love it there. Let's open up the board to you ryan. Where else do you see in value across week three in the nfl? Yeah, I mean it it's it's tough. I'm not sure about value So to speak but I am interested like I said at the beginning, you know, I'm Broncos got to prove it to me 49ers getting two and a half points. Jimmy g is back here You know, maybe things I believe this game is in denver So maybe things kind of go right for for denver here as they you know get another home game But the 49ers, you know, they they seem to be Clicking and rallying behind jimmy g being back. So that'll be an interesting one The sentinetti one, you know, it's hard because the line has been moving. I believe it opened around Well, I don't know what the number it opened that but I saw it on sunday at four and a half And you know, they just keep getting bet up. I believe it's now five five and a half So it opened at five Actually, so it was kind of been fluctuating a little bit Who's betting on jets at five to move to four and a half? Right? Yeah, I get the bangles of struggle, but buddy Yeah Hey, listen, you know, they just you know, when you're talking about seeing these games on sunday, right? So like the jets they eke out that victory against the browns and some some people might have been, you know Riding that way, but I do like sentinetti to kind of rebound here. I know that number seems a little bit tough And I'm going with my home team, uh, the chicago bears here with you know, just even taking the money line on them I think has some merit. I know that, you know People are talking up houston like what a win a win can mean for them in the a of c south because that division Is so depleted and so disgusting that they could be one one and one and leading the division because of how things have gone and and the win over indy, so Um, that I think that is an interesting game too, but I expect, you know It's such a favorable matchup for david montgomery and cleo herbert and the home crowd rocking like i'm liking the bear side of that game I I do need a texans win for their their their total their win total at some point because it was a three and a half and Missing out on a tie having a tie in there kind of a bummer. They played tight against denver. I need wins at some point guys So like let's let's not know more moral victories. Let's get actual victories. I need that for the the win total there So please help me out here. Uh, one I wanted to run by you One I did not talk about on tuesday show that I just had it today and do like and have bet It's the cheese minus five and a half Uh, I've seen a lot of twitter interest in the colt side of this game and I get it I get it because We're trying to buy low on a team that was missing massively key pieces last week and it looks like michael pitton should be back alec pierce should be back But it's also the chiefs. I was not super high on this uh this colt team coming into the year So it's kind of like confirming my priors that they've um played poorly so far I've got the cheese fair by 7.9 points in this game So I've laid the five and a half once it got there. It was six and a half and moved to five and a half I get the thought process behind buying the colts, but I can't do it ryan So i'm on the cheese minus five and a half. What's your read on that one specifically? Yeah, this this is a tough one for me and I didn't want to you know Have this be a part of my card as we say so to speak but I took the cheat I hammered the chiefs at six and a half So you can only imagine what I did when it came down to five and a half um And what it comes down to because they're they're a tough team against the spread and we talked about them You know a lot when they are you know kind of these heavy favorites Um and and five and a half makes it even more favorable But at six and a half I was kind of just like you know It was just a read that I get it is in these first home game of the season I believe um, but matt ryan has just looked lost in this offense and if it comes down to him needing to be aggressive or Hopefully they can get jonathan taylor going I don't what do you have 10 touches last week or something just disgusting He killed I had like christian kirk jonathan taylor many game stacks in dfs and the christian kirk side is great The jonathan taylor side shockingly was the part that dragged those down Yeah, it makes sense. You think jonathan taylor goes out puts up a number then they need to pass christian kirk's gets a volume So I I I get that um, but yeah, I just I mean you know if they can you know get kelsy going here and you know I know it's they said it was going to be a revolving door patch my homes who's going to be the leading receiver Maybe this is juju game, you know playing in the slot and having a favorable match up for himself against this team But yeah, kansas city five and a half I'm just going to take that and you know let indy prove it to me let matt ryan prove it to me That they can you know cover this number against the team that is much better than them on paper That's where i'm at as well So I did lay the five and a half with the chiefs there that is all that we have here for week number three Typically we'll give like a two minute thoughts on thursday night, but i'm not going to bother like that So i'm not going to subject you to talking about that game ryan We'll just close up shop for this week and move forward to tomorrow's player prop breakdown with jj zachery And get that by subscribing to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast ryan I want to thank you once again for joining me for today. Good luck to you this week We'll talk to you once again soon Yeah, it was great to be here again jim and good luck to you and your leans and not rooting for your houston win there But are you gonna be at the game? Are you going? I am going to be at the game. Yes. Good. Well, have fun I hope it goes well for you. Um, I will I'll I'll push my houston hopes to next week. Well, we'll worry about that later on fair enough fair enough Good luck everybody. You can find ryan on twitter at ryan alexander underscore w. I am on twitter at jim sonnis You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast Thank you all for tuning in and good luck to you this week We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down our player props for week three This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network