 Hey everyone, this is Mike Kramer of Mock Capital. Today is September 27th. Tomorrow we'll be getting our third iteration of the GDP report. This really should be a non-event. You can see that the estimates are basically unchanged. The big number will come at also at 830. That will be the initial jobless claims markets have been paying particular attention to that to try to see if they can sniff out when the unemployment rate will begin to rise. So pay attention to this number. Then of course at 10 o'clock we're gonna get pending home sales estimates for a decline of 1% versus last month's reading of 0.9. And it's worth pointing out just because there's so much volatility right now in the rate complex that there'll be a seven year auction tomorrow taking place at one o'clock. So something you just wanna be aware of because if for some reason it doesn't go well and rate spike that could add to market pressures here in U.S. equities. If we just take a quick look at the NASDAQ, two things point out that I stand out to me. Number one, it appears that we've broken this diamond reversal pattern. That's at least what I'm labeling it as some people have labeled it as a head and shoulders with the neckline being broken yesterday as well. There's also, you can take a look at this and see that there's also potentially a bear flag pattern that's formed in it as well. So basically no matter how you look at this pattern there's three different bearish patterns that have developed in the NASDAQ. And if we just try to think about it in simple terms from another couple of different perspectives we so far have only fallen about 61.8% of the first move down. So there's certainly more for this to fall based off of at least an extension of this first drop. So the key level here being right now 14,550 or so this is clearly acting as a little bit of an area of support for the market. So we did have a little bit of a volatile day today where we gapped higher, sold off pretty hard, snapped back pretty hard during the afternoon. Mostly this is because we're in a negative gamut regime and this is creating a lot of volatility. So you can see we've been trading around this 14,550, 14,560 region. And so this is really sort of an important level because number one, you can see we broke the long-term uptrend. We've tested it three times, we failed. And at this point, if there's any hope of recapturing this level you not only really need to see the index gap above this tomorrow, you really wanna see the index gap above this trend line. And that's probably a pretty tall order of 14,670. You're talking about what you would need is probably about a 50 to 60 basis point move right off the open to try to break us up above this level. And then even then you're looking at a resistance level of 14,750 with a potential for a gap fill. More from the bearish standpoint, which is what I think we're more in the case of at this point given that we have this bearish overall tone to the market is really taking out this low. Whether it comes early in the day or whether it comes later in the day, I don't think it really matters. This is a very unstable move higher. And so it leaves me to believe that this is going to be retraced completely and potentially even undercutting this low of 14,440. Typically when we see these types of big move higher intraday driven by negative gamma, basically a gamma squeeze driven by option flows that tends to be unstable and it tends to be reversed pretty quickly. So I wouldn't be surprised to see this fail tomorrow in the NASDAQ. And again, I think the downside is pretty prevalent here. If we just look at it from a little bit of a longer term picture, you can see we're still not even oversold on the RSI. And if we look at the Bollinger band we're just basically inside of it at this point. So tough to really even say that the NASDAQ is really significantly oversold at this point. And I would continue to think that we probably have some further downside. Again, I would be watching for a break of this 14,400 because that opens the door to lower levels, maybe 14,200 or so. When we move over to the Dow, it's pretty much been the same story now for quite a while. And the Dow is actually looking worse and worse as we continue to progress. First of all, again, here you can see we had this basically this stagnation period. We broke a major uptrend that had formed in the Dow off the March lows. We gapped lower almost looking like a breakaway gap which is certainly not a positive. Today we tested this 33,565 level and we snapped back pretty quickly off of it. But again, if we just take a little bit of a closer look, you can see how we just floored it in and out of the resistant and support zone almost most of the afternoon. Again, like the NASAC, you have this big rally midday. These tend to be very unstable in these type of environments. And my expectation would be that that's probably going to be undercut as well at 33,300 with the next major level of support coming somewhere around this 32,950 area. You can see that that's all the way down here. Likewise, you can also take a look and see if you were to get a break higher tomorrow, potentially above this high of 33,640 which isn't really that much further. You could potentially get a little bit of a higher run here in the Dow 33,734. But again, at this point, I mean, the Dow has had a lot of opportunities to move higher and it just doesn't look like it's an index that wants to go up. And in fact, like the other indexes we've been looking at, it again looks like there's this head and shoulders type of pattern in it. And depending upon how you wanna trace it out and how you wanna set it up on your own, you could certainly say that the neckline has been broken whether you do it this way or you can say that the neckline has been broken even if you do it this way. So it seems like a broken pattern at this point. It seems like a broken index with your next level of support. Like I said, somewhere around 32,900 to 33,000. If we move overseas and take a look at the DAX, it's not that much different here. You can see the DAX again, we clearly broke this support area. We've now undercut this 15,320 zone. You know, if we take a look and really kinda zoom in here, you can see that there's this gappy area in here right around 15,150. And then there's another gap down here at 14,950. And you can see we're coming up on this 15,150, which would be one area that the DAX could potentially stop at. But again, this looks like a big reversal top. And when we get big reversal tops, they tend to not just be little declines. This looks like something that could be much more significant over time. And so you'd wanna really see how this behaves at 15,130. Likewise, if you get a move higher tomorrow, you take out 15,260. You know, when you test this 15,300, it might give you a fairly decent indication whether or not there's actually upside to this because if you get here and fail, that's gonna really tell you a lot about the next move, which is also, I think, likely to be lower at this point. Finally, we take a look at the footsie. It has a lot of the characteristics of what we've seen in the DAX where you had this big move higher, and then you came down to it, tested it, came up to it, tested it again on the way down, and then you just couldn't hold it and now you're moving back down below it. And again, this is a big, sharp rally. These can tend to be, you know, unstable patterns and would suggest that we undercut and come back down to 75, 25 level. Additionally, if you're looking at it from this standpoint, you know, it looks like there's an uptrend that's on the cusp of being broken or likely to be broken tomorrow. And so you have to be left to wonder that, you know, perhaps we're also looking at a scenario that you're looking at, you know, the footsie returning that is 75,300 area. If you can take out this high at 76,25 and get back over this trend line, you know, there's room to run maybe back to 76, 79. But again, I think you have to see how, you know, it acts in terms of whether or not there's further to go because there's just a lot of overhead resistance at this point and you've seen, you know, pretty unstable markets, again, not just in the US, not just in Europe, but you've seen them also in Asia. And, you know, Asia is, you know, sending a lot of signals as well with South Korea, certainly sending very negative signals. You've seen some negative signals coming out of Australia as well. And certainly we've seen a lot of weakness more lately in Hong Kong and out of China for obvious reasons due to their economic slowing. And certainly when we take a look at, when we look at Taiwan, you can see it's also very close to potentially seeing a big break lower. At this point, I think one needs to be on guard for further downside and wait for rebounds to really be proven otherwise. And to be proven otherwise, it means waiting to see if they can start clearing some, you know, key resistance level on the way up. And so that's basically where we are at this point. Have a great rest of your week. Bye.