 Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader dot com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well for all you guys living in the East Coast, the Northeast, man. Hope you guys are staying warm. I live in New Jersey, but I walked my dog today two degrees right out of out of control how cold it is. And for all you guys who know me, I've said the story a whole bunch of times. If in the middle of the night, my wife tries to kill me and I survive. I'm moving to Florida. That's it. I'm moving to Florida and living in a single Dan. This is pretty pretty bad situation, but I'm looking forward to it. So anyway, guys, good morning. Hope everybody is doing well. Good evening, depending where you are around the world. Hopefully life is treating you kindly. Hopefully the market is treating you as equally as kindly and we'll get to the market in a second. Let's just get the social media stuff out of the way. If you are brand new to the channel, if you could be so kind and so likely to like, share and subscribe and all that other stuff that I've been told that I have to say to get this thing, to get this thing going. All jokes aside, we appreciate all your support. So let's talk about the market. Let's talk about just the numbers to start on Nasdaq again. We've been talking about now for the last month or so, three or four losing days since January the 6th. In that time, the Nasdaq, despite giving back about 2% on Friday, is up about 15% for the year, which is amazing because last year, how we started the year, under the 50-day moving average, sell buys for about 80-85% of the year started below the 50-day moving average once again this year as well. And we lost 33% on the Nasdaq and I've been saying this realistically for every week, again, we lost 33%. Why can't we be up 20? I didn't realize we're going to be up 15% in the first six weeks. So it's incredible, incredible action. The common denominator continues to be the same thing. You see bad news coming out with earnings. It started out just a quick run. It started out with Netflix, not great numbers, but subscribers are up, the stock exploded. Microsoft, not great numbers. They went up, they went down, they went way back up, and they went higher than that, exploded. You had the Super Bowl of earnings, and that was the key for this week as well. You had Tesla, right? You had Tesla numbers that came out, did very, very well. We'll talk about Tesla in a second. Thursday, you had, just to give you an idea of how strong this market is, you had Apple, you had Google, you had Starbucks, and you had Amazon, all Mr. Numbers, every single one of them. And if I told you a year ago in the bear market, if all those four stocks, mainly those first three, Amazon, Google, and Apple, if they missed their numbers, you would think the Nasdaq would be down 800 points at the open. And it really does show you the resilience, right? How the market continues to fight off bad news. And you saw on Friday, not only were they able to fight off bad news, you know, Apple had a horrible quarter, right? Absolutely horrible quarter. The stock went, you know, was down six. At one point, it was up six. Amazon was the casualty, right? Was the casualty, did not have a good quarter and pretty much closed on the lows. Even Google, who gapped down, you know, gapped down about five. At one point, came within 10, 15 cents of going green. And not only did this happen, you had all these stocks, accumulative, right? Cumulative effort to go green. And Nasdaq and Plaza was actually greener than they. And ultimately, you know, they kind of failed to hold off on the green bias and sold off and actually lost 2% into the close. So although I do believe the market continues to be really, really strong. This is where, again, this is where traders and investors, we separate, right? 278 was obviously the big number. We talked about that 278 and nausea, right? The 50-day reclaim was going to be a major, major number for the Qs. They did so. That's what started this whole rally by no means that I believe we were going to go up 15% in a matter of a couple of weeks. But hey, the numbers don't lie. That's exactly where we are. But now we're starting to gather information, right? If you are new to the channel, I'm not here to guess what I think is going to happen, have an opinion of what I think is going to happen. Or close my eyes and throw a dart to see what's going to happen. I'm basically trading on the previous night's research or the previous day's closed research. And, you know, we've been bullish, bullish, bullish nonstop, right? If you saw what happened in the market, you know, this is where you start possibly looking to the other side of the equation. If you see what happened to the market in the last couple of days, just the way we closed, if you see what we happened on Thursday, we had a phenomenal, phenomenal run. Everything was going crazy. And at the end of the day, they pulled. They pulled very, very aggressively. And if you look what happened on Friday, right, they did the same thing, right? They rallied. They brushed off bad news, especially with Google, Apple and Amazon. They won green in a day, but ultimately they couldn't hold it and they put this inverted hammer in, right? Any single time you see an inverted hammer, this is a sell signal, right? This is not a buy signal. This is a sell signal. And now you have two days worth in a row of data that are basically telling you, hey, the buyer's a tire, right? The same way the sellers got tired down here and we reclaimed the 50-day moving average after, you know, a horrific, horrific 2022 and a horrific start to 2023, the buyers, the sellers got tired here and we were able to rally. This is kind of, we're kind of starting to set up here the same way here, right? Although I do believe, although I do believe two things. Number one, as long as we continue to stay above the 50-day moving average, okay, and now we're super far away. We're talking about 30 points away from the 50-day, it's always going to be a bull thesis. As a matter of fact, if you are a brand new trader and you had to restart your career, reset your thinking, here's a couple of cheat sheets that I always tell traders. Number one, if the market is above the 50-day moving average, your bias should be to the upside. It's kind of one of those bare bones things that if I knew, and I think if I knew of any trader new entering their career, they would really understand the difference between bias and opinion and reality, right? So anything over the 50-day moving average is naturally bullish. Obviously, every single day the market's not going to go higher. And if we're below the 50-day moving average, that's the likely line, it's bearish. Another thing you have to realize, again, just because you are bullish doesn't mean the market has to go up every single day. In the most aggressive bear markets, we saw violent tendencies to the upside two, three, four days in a row. It doesn't mean that was the bottom of the market. That means that's kind of how the stock market trades. So when we're talking about here a potential sell signal with this inverted hammer, I don't mean, by the way, I think in three months we're going to be at all-time lows. No, all I mean is based on the last couple of days worth of data and a whole bunch of inverted hammers that I'm seeing right now on a lot of charts going into the day, I do believe in the next two, maybe two, three sessions, just because gravity's real, right? And what I've seen now, two lower highs in a row and two closes in a row, pretty much towards the low of the day, I do think in the next two sessions we probably will have a day that the NASDAQ pulls in 500 points. Just because the point is the market can't go linear, okay? It can't go linear, it can't go parabolic. It feels that way, right? It feels that way. But at least right now we have to be conscious that, hey, this is happening. This has already happened. We took advantage of this phenomenal, phenomenal run. If you've been an active participant in this market for the last two, three weeks, you know what happened, right? You know what happened with Teslas. And by the way, Tesla at one point on Friday when it traded up to $199 was up about 98% in two, three weeks. That's absolutely ridiculous. So when you have numbers like this, and again we took advantage of those numbers, but when you have numbers like this and you have a state of affairs, kind of what we in, it's not even the most aggressive bull, even the most permable, has to kind of take a step back and go, hey, wait a minute, you know, maybe too far, too fast. We got an inverted hammer. We got two days in a row of lackluster closes, especially towards the end of the week. And now it's maybe a healthy necessity that the market pulls back a couple of days. Again, I still am super duper bullish, and I do believe speculation money continues to flow in. All you got to do is look at the hottest sector right now. And if you've been trading, like, look at this group, right? You got AI, you have stocks like S-O-U-N, you have BB, I think it was BB AI. Look at this little cheapy from Friday, right? Look at this little one. Look at this little sucker, right? Anything with the word AI is going to do very, very well. So you can see the speculation money flows there. That's a bullish sign. The fact that the market continues to brush off bad news, especially with the leaders, that's a bullish sign. But again, just because it means, just because we are in a bullish cycle doesn't mean we can't get two, three days, at least a couple of days of potential pullback, at least to reset, right? Reset back to the five or even potentially 10-day moving average. This will be incredibly healthy. It will be incredibly organic, but most important thing is it's necessary. Again, you can't continue to push something up, you know, 100% in two, three weeks and expect that every single time you buy it, you expect somebody else to come in behind you and pay a higher price. It just doesn't work that way. It works that way in fantasy world, right? But unfortunately, you know, we are starting to get to the point that the strongest stocks are starting to get tired, for the exception of Tesla. But hey, even Tesla could get its rug pulled and the point is these stocks truly are necessary, right? I think necessary for health-wise, for anything that's going to be longer than a couple of weeks for this bullish case, I think the stocks do need a potential, you know, do need a potential of a two, three-day reversal. So keep your eye out, okay? It doesn't necessarily have to be on Monday, but I do think just from what I'm seeing, right, now that we've got the majority of the big mega tech stocks are earnings out of the way. And again, we still have PayPal, we still have NVIDIA, you know, some other names as well. But for the McGilligarillas of the jungle, I think we're all out of the way. And if they start getting tired, like for example, you saw Amazon kind of lead the market pulled down Friday, I do believe we should. I mean, we should. I don't know if the hell we will, but I think we should in the next day or two probably have a scenario that the market gaps up. Because I don't think for a second it's going to be a scenario that if we gap down, we're going to continue to go down. I think anything's possible, right? I think anything's possible and it could definitely play out. But I think in a perfect world, what we would see is kind of a gap up, right? Gap up in the queues, putting a lower high on the 16-minute channel, get stuffed into supply. And if things start to roll over, then we're going to have a very, you know, a very, very good game plan for that day. So I'm always, you know, I'm very, always wary and always on guard for a potential rug pull. But now, just because we got the last couple of days worth of data, that I'm very, very conscious. And if that happens, I will definitely be prepared for it. So again, you could use pretty much any index as your guide. I mean, look, you know, same thing with IWM. Let's run an IWM inverted hammer here. If you look at the SPYs, right? Same thing, inverted hammer. All three have exactly the same looking thing. So if we do gap up and we start losing Friday's channels, there is going to be a major opportunity to the downside. But if not, you have to be prepared on both sides. Obviously, you don't want to pay highs on anything that's been high-flying. If you are, and this is just my opinion, if you are playing stocks into strength that already had big runs, don't claim it to strength. That's the whole point. Wait for them to kind of dip into 16-minute support. And if they get into the 16-minute support, at least you already have a defined area that if it doesn't obey that level and hold that level, you know, your losses could be very minimal versus buying at the top of the range after, you know, some of these stocks have put in a 20%, 30%, 40% in Tesla's case, almost 100% move in three weeks. You're buying it at the top of the channel. You know, there's a high probability the balloon will get popped. And if you are playing a musical chair game, you are probably going to wind up on the floor, which is to see very, very bruised. That's kind of my game plan going into the week. Other than that, some, you know, some notes. You had your Fed, right? Raise 25 basis points. That was a consensus. You know, they started using language. And I think that's what the market really needed to hear. We rallied really aggressively that day on the Powell comments, basically saying, yeah, you know, we are looking for potential more hikes as we see fit. But the language came across as much of a soft landing. So there wasn't anything on a bearish undertone that really freaked the market out. And I think that's going to continue to be the tone because I think they do understand as they claim they never make their decisions or use their language to kind of value in or kind of modify what the market is thinking. But I think they're a little more cautious just because of the horrific year the NASDAQ had. And just like the overall general market, the market had in 2023. So, you know, look, if we do get pulled, obviously you want to, you know, you want to trade the names that couldn't rally, right? Or had last look, last luster results based on armies. Like for example, like Amazon, you know, would be, you know, would be the first one I'd be looking at, right? This is the only stock out of all the ones that reported in the last, you know, in the last several sessions that had bad numbers. This was the only one that didn't rally. Everything else was basically rally. Again, like I said, even Google, you know, rally to almost green on the day. So any gap up and if Amazon starts getting weaker, I'm definitely going to be focused on my attention here. Tesla, what can we say about Tesla that hasn't been set already? Again, you got a nearly 100% move in about three weeks. It's been an absolute godsend, whether it's on strength, on dips. Yes, you know, on Friday when red to green took out the previous day's channels, stopped perfectly in the 1 to 999 supply. So, you know, again, does it have to test that 200 level? Is it possible the stock gets that 200 level, gets stuffed and reverses like everything else? Yeah, I mean, that's one of the stocks I would definitely be watching if they're, you know, if the gravity trade kicks in, because look how much room you have. You know, again, I don't love Tesla for what it represents. I love the company. I think it's a phenomenal looking car. I love it, right? But I love the stock better, right? And I love the stock more because it's an animal on the way up, and it's an animal on the way down. And if you're a brand new Tesla trader and you are looking to establish a position, you know, just my advice, again, you can take a leave in. But my first entry into Tesla, if you've never traded it before, should not be at 200, especially after 100% run. If you can get it on a dip at the rising 5-day, 10-day support, that's a whole different question. But always remember, guys, always remember it's not even as important as where the stock you believe is going. The validity here is how far, you know, look how far the stock has already come and needs a break. Is it possible it gets through 200 and it keeps going a little bit? Sure, absolutely everything's possible. But again, just be wary, right? Be wary. Some things are ready, incredibly stretched out. And I do believe we'll see in the next two, three days. I think I could be wrong. That's fine. I have no problem to continue buying stocks. But I do believe just to be wary, I do think we will have a day that the NASA gets pulled three, four, five hundred points. And I do think if that happens, it's going to come from a blow-off top kind of reversal in the morning. So that's it, guys. Everybody have a great, great weekend. Hope everybody is doing fantastic in this market. Hope everybody's happy. Hope everybody's healthy. And the most important part is, not the most important, but equally as part, hopefully everybody continues to stay in business and grows into the trader that you organically and potentially can be. God bless everybody. Love you all. I will see you all on Monday.