 All right, what's up, guys? This is Alex from Xtrades, back to you with another weekly trade ideas list and also an index overview. You're tuning in for the first time. I drop one of these videos every week, usually on the weekends on Sundays. Today I'm going to be doing it a little bit early. I am going out of town, so I won't have any privacy to record this Sunday. So I'm going ahead and getting it done early, got all my charting work done and recording tonight. So I'm going to go ahead and drop it early. Make sure you all get that. And if you're tuning in for the first time from YouTube, if you didn't know, Xtrades is a community. So we are a trading community. We don't just make videos. If you want to come check us out, make sure you check out the links in the description. I'll drop my app.xtrades.net link, which is our social trading platform. If you ever want to track your own trades, follow, seasoned or beginner traders, you can do that on our web platform, and it does track real-time data. So every trade is tracked accurately, win or loss. It all comes from real-time exchange data. And that's at app.xtrades.net. That's our web platform. And if you go to our Discord, we also have the mobile app. But if you wanted to get more of a breakdown on how it works, we do have a channel dedicated to the app and the web platform. So go check that out in our Discord. And that's the Xtrades Discord. So before we get into our setups and everything, we're going to go over the economic calendar real quick. One day, October 2nd, we do have S&P final US manufacturing PMIs. Also have ISM manufacturing PMIs and construction spending. Obviously, the ISM and PMIs are going to move the market the most. Construction spending usually does not. And as long as the government doesn't shut down, this data is coming out this week. So unless something stupid happens and our politicians can't come to an agreement or government shuts down, there's not going to be any data because it's all government data. So Tuesday, October 3rd, we do have the JILTS job openings. Last time this came out, this moved the market huge. So definitely pay attention to that. Wednesday, October 4th, the ADP employment, S&P final US services PMI factory orders, and ISM services. So I'd say the PMIs and ISM services are probably going to move the market the most. Pay attention to those on Wednesday. ADP employment, not so much. Thursday, October 5th, initial jobless claims as usual, and the US trade deficit. I wouldn't say these are going to move the market too much. On Friday, most importantly, the US employment reports, this is non-farm payrolls, the US unemployment rate, US hourly wages, hourly wages year over year, and consumer credit at three. So non-farm payrolls and the employment report, most important. Second most important, the unemployment rate. And I'll say US hourly wages, but mostly people are looking at the unemployment rate and the non-farm payrolls to get that hint into the labor market. So the Fed is paying very close attention to the labor market. We want to see it start cooling down a little bit. The labor market, it's just, it's been fine. So a lot of people have been a little bit confused at how, during this rate hike cycle, can they still not bring down the labor market? So maybe we can see a little cool down in the labor market because it's still hot right now. All right. And then we'll go over the Almanac real quick, which is tied to seasonality. You can see October 2nd, Monday, first trading day in October, Dow down nine of the last 17, off 2.4% in 2011. And the probability is for the market rising Dow at 52.4%, S&P at 57.1%, Nasdaq at 52.4%. This is Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq. That's what the DSN stands for. Tuesday, start looking for MACD buy signals on October 1st, and then looks like the Almanac is just pretty much talking to its subscribers. If you subscribe to them, they'll send you emails and pretty much like little trade alerts and stuff. But I don't use that. I just use their book. We got the Dow at 38.1%, S&P at 42.9%, Nasdaq at 47.6%. So lower probabilities that day. The Wednesday, we do have a bull icon, so historically bullish day. We got Dow at 71.4%, S&P at 71.4%, Nasdaq at 76.2%, so higher probabilities this day. It's got a bull icon, so that means it's a very historically bullish day. Thursday, the 5th, October ends Dow and S&P's worst six months and Nasdaq's worst four months. We got the Dow at 61.9%, S&P at 57.1%, Nasdaq at 57.1%, some more neutral, no bull icon for this one. But we are starting to get into that historically bullish seasonality until October and November. And Friday, historically bearish day, we got a bear icon Dow at 38.1%, S&P at 38.1%, Nasdaq at 47.6%, so very low probabilities this day on Friday. And for the seasonality chart, I wanted to show you, we are finally out of September, which was just a crazy month. We followed the seasonality to the T, so we actually sold off right at the half of September. So right when the FOMC press conference in Jerome Powell talked, made their interest rate decision to pause along with the hawkish comments and keeping rates higher for longer, that brought the market down perfectly at the last half of September. So we followed the seasonality to a T. So I'm hoping we can get a pretty decent October. Maybe we'll start to see the market stabilize just a little bit. Obviously with the 10 year yields and just yields in general and the dollar still skyrocketing, that kind of makes everything a little bit more jumpy recently. This whole month was just crazy. My equity curve and my accounts is all over the place. I would have a green day and then a, you know, I have a red day and a green day and a red day just very back and forth. So I'm hoping it'll be more stable in October. You can see at the beginning of the month, we kind of start out with a little pump, get a nice little rally. And then towards the beginning, probably after the first week, there's a little sell off historically makes a bottom and then it rise for the rest of the month all the way into November. Now, obviously the markets are not just going to follow the seasonality, you know, to a T all the time. Obviously, September, it did very well, but we also had May this year, which actually wasn't as weak as it usually is the saying, sell in May and go away. The selling wasn't as strong this year. So there is some months we didn't follow seasonality that accurately. So you do have to take it with a grain of salt, kind of look at it more on a monthly basis. Don't look at it by a week by week basis or, you know, a squiggle by squiggle basis, every little pump or every little drop is not going to accurately reflect on the actual seasonality chart where all the data is compacted into one. So take it kind of more on a trend type basis, month by month basis. If it seems like September is going to be weak or if it seems like August is going to be weak, you kind of just expect over the month that you could see some weakness. And same thing for the bull side, if you're more bullish in November, you might be a little bit more hesitant throughout the month to show at the market. But just pay attention to the extremes. Like you got very bullish for the first half, a little bit negative towards the last half, very bullish after that and so on so forth. And then you just stay a little bit skeptical when it's choppy, such as like August, May, et cetera. So that's for the seasonality. Let's go ahead and get into the setups. All right. Our first one here, we are looking at an airline company called American Airlines. This is ticker symbol AAL. We actually had LV on our watch list and trade ideas list, probably a couple of weeks ago, and we even took some calls in the discord on it for a swing. I think of me like 27 or 30% or something on it. So this one actually looks a little bit better than LV. I was looking at LV again when I was charting. I've over like 200 plus tickers. So I have so many that I go through before I make this video. It takes a little bit, but it's worth it because we really do find some good stuff. Like last week, we had CLF calls and Tesla calls. Both did really well. Exile, we were looking at puts on that very back and forth. I actually ended up closing flat on the week. So even if you entered and dealt with the upside risk because it popped, it came back down today very heavily down about 2%. So very wacky week, especially for energy and yields and the dollar, everything. So definitely tune in each week because I do put a lot of time and effort into charting these and I try to find the best. So our first one here looking at AAL, it's pretty obvious. We do have a very, very nice support here from April Lowe's. You can see right here at 12.65. And it did have an initial pop right here. You can see this candle actually closed up plus 2.4%. That was on Thursday. So just yesterday. And then I gave it a little bit back today on Friday. You can see it's down just almost a percent. Nothing too crazy. I didn't give back the whole candle. So I'm looking at the support, looking at calls, but I'm more looking at it on a swing trade basis. It may need some patience and when you're buying at major loads like this for a dead cat bounce, it's good to buy time because you never know if it's just going to bounce, fake out and then butter through. That's why you keep your risk off below the level. You can probably keep it below 12.40, something like that. Also another little base right here from December 2022. You can see it right here. It's going to be at 12.23. So that area is worth watching as well. Maybe you could just keep your full risk off if it broke under 12.23. Just that major low because if it did that, it probably, you know, start heading down to the 11th. So I'm looking at calls on this. Obviously probably 30 plus days expiration. I would be willing to do day trades on it, but I can't really make a decision on a day trade until the cash session is here. And I can see the open. I can see how the first 15 minutes looks and everything like that. That's kind of how you make day trade decisions. You make it in real time. Obviously you can plan before, but we're looking at the higher time frames right now and the higher time frames work really good for swing trades. So this is the one day time frame. If you want to go down to the one hour as well, for more confirmation, you can use this little trend line right here. And also we did was take it from this gap down to this test, down to this test. So this is your first point, second point, and then the trend line is extended. You could just do that on your trading view. Just a double click your line. You can hit extend right line and it'll extend all the way from your second point and so on and so forth. Probably even draw it like this as well. We got test one, test two, test three. So if you wanted, we could go ahead and set an alert at this trend line, just right click it, hit add alert. We'll call it breakout. That way, once AAL wants to break out of this, that's a great signal for it to start ripping to the upside as well as your one day support off 1265. That's a good bias to start going long. Probably even mark this little gap we have right here from about 1370s up to 14. So maybe that'll fill eventually. Markets like to gravitate back towards unfilled gaps. It's a little bit higher, but if you can break out of this downtrend, hold this 1265, you got a good chance of getting back up there over time. So like I said, by 30 plus days out, deal with any drawdown risk, it's just so much easier when you're trading options if you buy time, especially if you're a beginner. If you don't like taking too much risk, just buy time. It's so much easier and go in the money or at the money. The higher the delta, the better. It's just easier to manage and it's going to move more like the actual stock if you have a higher delta. Those out of the monies, more like lottery tickets. And I mean, you can make a lot of money off them, but most rookie's mistakes are purely off of short-term options going too far out of the money. And they wonder why they keep losing money. So that's for AAL, looking at calls, look at time on it. If it can break out of this on the one hour, that could be a good day trade as well. So maybe look for that for a day trade signal over the trend line. Otherwise, buy time on this and be patient with it. All right. Next, we're going into SNAP. So this is another long setup I'm looking at. I'm kind of just going with the flow, right? We looked at the seasonality. Usually we are trending up on the indexes, so I'm going to go ahead and stick to longs for now for swing trades. If I'm going to take any swing trade exposure this month, it's likely going to be long. Obviously, you can still play cautious. Make sure you're keeping your stop losses and all that because we got, you know, rocketing yields. We got very uncertain markets, rocketing US dollar VIX is starting to get a little bit higher. So there are risks on the table and you have to be careful with that. But we're just kind of going with the seasonality. And usually October is relatively good. And that's when the weakness kind of starts wearing down. It's when September ends. That's why we're kind of looking at longs. And I'm trying to find stuff more discounted and at the bottom. And that's why I'm looking at snap right here. We have a big drop based rally demand zone. If you haven't learned about supply and demand zones yet, go to our X trades YouTube channel. I made a whole crash course on them. I cover all four sequences for supply and demand. We got drop based rally for demand. We have rally based rally for demand. Supply is a rally based drop and also drop based drop. So there's four different kinds, two for demand and two for supply. Go check out the crash course on YouTube. It's literally free. So just go go check it out. Snap, a really nice demand zone here on the one way time frame. I finally tapped it. You can see it got really close to tapping it right here. And it kind of went counter trend reverse off of this, but it didn't tap it to the exact. So now that we're actually inside the zone and we traded in a little bit, I feel like there's a good chance that we can see that reversal off this area. Snap is a really good mover when it can actually get momentum. But it's been getting slammed for a while. I mean, ever since the hot money phase ran out, twenty twenty one ended and a lot of that stimulus money, you know, went to the shitter. We started seeing a lot of high growth companies get burned in twenty twenty two with higher interest rates. It's more expensive for companies to borrow money, more expensive for them to hire and that brings stocks down. So for ideal price targets, obviously, there's a little like ace right here at about nine ninety six. You probably just call it ten flat. So over time, I feel like this can get up to ten dollars. And that would probably be where I would look to scale out completely, at least until I had more evidence that it can get over ten. If it can get over ten, I'd feel pretty good about it going higher. There's also a little drop based drop supply right here on the one week. So I have my supply template here. So this is drop based drop. Once it puts in the lower load, that means your sequence is finished. And then you focus on the imbalance area that led to it. So this is your imbalance area that led to lower lows. And you focus on this. You can see it actually kind of rejected from it right here. It kind of missed it just a tad. You can see the wick was actually just a little bit under it. But either way, the general area you want to pay attention to for supply and same thing with demand. You can see it almost tapped it to the exact rate here, but it just missed it a little bit short. So just pay attention to the general area. You don't always have to go, you know, level for level and be exactly right. Just pay attention. If you're starting to get a reversal signal, just a tad bit early, that might mean that people are still paying attention to this area because it's still an imbalance area. This whole area right here, something happened in this to lead to this big rally. And that's what you're focusing on, looking for bounces once it returns to the area. So that's for snap. Obviously, it might need to get over this little level. Let's go to the one day real quick. There's a little previous wick low right here at eight 86. You can see we actually closed over that. So that's a good sign. As long as we stay over the eight 86, I feel like that's pretty good. And it can make a base to go higher, probably up to the 10 level we were looking at. But maybe overall, it can get up to that one week supply, which came all the way from its last earnings, which is all the way down here in July. Yep, looking pretty good for upside on the higher time frames. Just need to be a little bit patient. This is more of a bottom pick. So be patient with it, risk off completely under seven 86. It starts breaking under that seven 86. That's probably a good idea to get out your swing trade or whatever trade you took. I would recommend looking at a swing trade on this and being patient with it, buying 30 plus days expiration, maybe even 60 days. Give it time to get off this bottom, start moving around and you can play up into the next earnings I could pay. So just be patient, risk off below seven 86. Looking at calls, another level to focus on, make sure it's staying over eight 86. Not a huge deal if it starts going back under it. As long as you're staying in this demand, I look at it as a discount area, a good area to add to go back up. All right, for our last individual ticker here, we're looking at JWN. So I was actually looking at this one yesterday and it totally ripped today, up 3%. So I kind of wish I was able to get into it today, but I was day trading and doing other stuff, I trade futures too. So sometimes I'm just trading the futures and less stock or options. So I was focused on this 1403 bottom. You can see it's a pretty big support all the way from May 2023 at a short-term bounce here in September and had another short-term bounce here. So this is actually trying to make a double bottom. I wouldn't say it's confirmed until it's over 15. Once it gets over 15 even starts closing over that. That's a really straight shot up to 1653. And you can see there's literally no supply or anything right here. You just have three red bearish candles, which is all sell imbalance. So there's a good chance that that sell imbalance could fill back up and you'd find resistance at the peak. And it's kind of a little supply at about 1630s or so. So that's what I'm looking at on JWN. This is another kind of bottom pick and you'd want to buy 30 plus days of expiration, be patient with it. It could be a good hold once maybe retailers start getting more customers. People are spending more money during the holidays and shopping online. It's usually towards like winter. And, you know, when it starts getting cooler outside, people start spending a little bit more money retail wise. Definitely pay attention to JWN and other retailers. I feel like as long as it's staying over our 1403, which is your bottom support, I feel like it looks really good. Obviously risk off below 14 flat starts breaking under that it can go lower. But this thing has gotten crushed for a while. So this is kind of more like a dead cab bounce play. And there's a lot of room to retrace. So maybe up to 1653, this kind of reminds me of the Under Armour setup. I was looking at a while ago, we caught a really good move on that. I'm actually still holding Under Armour, which is UAA long term. So they still have a lot of potential to go up as well. I do like the retailers. They're very oversold. And I think it's just because people's spending habits have changed, their earnings aren't as good because of interest rates and, you know, the fight against inflation. You have to make people spend less for inflation to come down. And I feel like we're starting to see a little bit more effects from that and you can see that with the retail with the retail stocks because they've just been getting slammed. There's a couple that have been doing pretty good. But overall, a lot of these are starting to look very oversold and they need some love. So hopefully we can see a nice move on this by 30 plus to maybe 60 days of expiration within a drawdown risk. It's so much easier with time and keep your risk off below 14. So JWN looking at calls. All right, now let's get into the indexes. So we usually kind of go over what we were looking at last week and then we'll get into what we're looking at this week. So last week, we were focused on this little structure lows breaking, right? This is Friday's close at four three one eight. This is four thousand three hundred eighteen for the SPX. It closed just a little bit under it. I mentioned we needed to see the reclaim back over for three three five. Just four thousand three hundred thirty five, which is a structure low right here. And then there's another little structure low right here. This is why we have four three two eight to four three three five as the structure low zone. So it's not just four three three five. There's also four three twenty eight. I can actually show you why you should focus on that just from today. Look at this. It back tested that same structure low today. Filled the gap all the way down plus more. And this was despite good PCE data today. We still shit the bed. So this level was huge. We needed to close over this and we failed to do that. So that's kind of makes it look a little bit if we go into next week. We're still not over the structure highs. So I mean, we're still not over the structure lows, which means we can't fill up this cell imbalance yet. And so we start closing over that. If we start closing over that, there's a whole cell imbalance plus a gap to fill right here. So over that would make a great long. You can actually see on Monday we briefly closed over it. But the thing is if you close over it and you don't open over or at it at the same level, it's not going to act of support. So it gap down right here. So we opened at 4, 3, 14, and it went straight down after that. So just because it closes over, it doesn't always mean it's safe. You want to see the next day is open, stay over the same level as well. Otherwise, this just looks like a back test. Looks like a bounce to back test to flush, which is a classic pattern. You see on a lot of stuff, previous support acting as resistance. Did it right here down from Monday into Tuesday into Wednesday. And it did it today once we back tested it today and filled the gap all the way down plus more. So I actually had a demand zone last week we're focused on. I mentioned if this stayed under the 4, 3, 3, 5, it flushed down into 40, 42, 80. It did exactly that and held it up pretty good, actually. So it briefly went under it, but it hit our overall SPX uptrend line. So you got test one, test two, test three. Look at this test three balance is perfect. So at test three, that's when the uptrend is validated. So it's actually still technically in uptrend and it looks pretty good. But the thing is you want to see the uptrend bounce plus the reclaim over structured lows that I was just talking about. It's going to be at 4, 3, 3, 5, 4, 3, 28 needs to start closing over that opening above it and it can go higher just because this is still holding and the trend line is holding doesn't mean we're safe. We need to see the reclaim of the lows or the previous lows. So that would be a great signal. If we can start getting over that 4, 3, 3, 5, I'd feel really good about more upside. I feel good about this trend line overall holding. And we can start feeling that gap to the upside. But right now, I mean, I have to kind of lean more neutral because we totally rejected and back tested off our structure lows, closed under it. And we really don't have anything here. I mean, look at these daily bars. There's really nothing signaling anything crazy. The best signal was probably this wick off of the trend line that was setting up for a good move the next day. So if you pay attention to wicks, lower shadow wicks and upper shadow wicks, they can tell a lot of the story about the buyer or seller. Upper shadow wicks are going to show strong sale pressure. Lower shadow wicks have a potential to show by pressure. So it's good to pay attention to those. Right now, we really don't have any clear signals other than this rejection off 4, 3, 3, 5. If I add the indicators here when we look at the moving averages, here are these pivots. You can see this is our 9 and 21 cloud. We actually rejected off that too. So this 4, 3, 3, 5 plus the 9 EMA, which is the first one. The second one right here is a 21. The free space is just the free space between the 9 and 21. And that turns it into a cloud. Great indicator for the 9 and 21 EMA. I really like it. It turns red when the trend is low and it'll turn green once we start. You know, the 9 will cross back over the 21 and it'll turn green and you'll have that uptrend motion on the indicator as well. So go check it out. Just look up 9, 21 EMA cloud. Or you could look up multi time frame EMA cloud and you can probably find this same exact one on TradingView. Another really cool thing that we saw last week was actually Wednesday. So we dipped below. This is our 200 EMA, which is probably my favorite EMA for the higher time frames. It's usually the biggest area of support or resistance, depending if we're, you know, trending over it or under it. We're still trending over it. You can see it pulled into it and it had a bounce, you know, the first test that we touched it. So it dipped all the way below it, but the thing is we closed back over it. So this is the close right here at 4273. So this is your high of a candle. This is your open. This is your close. This is your low. And that's how you read a candle. But this is our close over 200 EMA. You can see it's over the blue dots and that gave a good signal for the next day to pop and run up into the structured lows at a minimum, because you can't really project any higher than the structured lows because you have no idea if it's going to reject or break it, such as we saw today on Friday. That's why you have to use one level at a time, take one daily close at a time, use the one day bars, let it give you some signals. So leaning more neutral, I don't see any entry or anything right now. I would want to see a move over the forward 335, which is the structure lows. I was talking about multiple times, or if we want to go lower and we want to see a put trade, we would need to break the uptrend line. So just keep it that simple and that obvious needs to break this uptrend line to go lower and head down to 4200 or we need to reclaim structure lows and that gives a straight shot up into the gap. So that's for the SPX, wait for a signal on that break of the trend line for downside, break of 4, 335 for upside. All right, next we're going into the QQQ. So this was actually the only thing last week that didn't break any structure low to make me feel a little bit more confident about it bouncing because it didn't break the structure lows and it's still holding relatively good structure lows here from August 18th at 354 71. I think this is the same level we were looking at last week. I think I mentioned you could look at dip buys down here as long as you have the right signals. And it looks like it bounced pretty good off of it. Obviously, we had a few hiccups below it. But once it starts reclaiming over it, that's when you can get some serious upside and that's what I want to see on SPX. Even though it broke below, I can still reclaim over and the reclaim over the structure lows makes a really good trade. And you can see that on QQQ right here. It dipped all the way to 351 36 as you see on this wick. But once it got back over, you have two days of upside or at least one day of big upside and then a gap up to sell. So it went as high as 362 95 today. Had a really good day on the PC data, but then we shit the bed. You see another thing we pulled up into the nine and twenty one cloud or you can call it the nine and twenty one EMA combo. That's what I call it. You see this is the nine. Here's a twenty one the second pulled up into that general area rejected right off of it. And that's why if I ever buy below the nine and twenty one on any time frame, if I buy below the nine and twenty one, I'm taking profit at the nine and twenty one once it gets up there. If it's a day trade, I'm taking a scout for a rebalance to the upside. And it's below the nine and twenty one such as this. Let's say this is on a short term time frame. I do the same exact thing. I take the rebalance, you know, by the dip once it gets up into the cloud or the nine and twenty one EMA doesn't have to be a cloud. It could just be a regular nine and twenty one EMA if you want. Once it gets up there, take profit because you have no idea how it's going to react. If you're trending below it, there's a good chance once it pops up into it, it's going to act as resistance, such as you saw on QQQ and SPX. We're just looking at and it does this on every single time frame. It doesn't matter what you're looking at, 15 minute, the five minute. There's a good chance if it's trending below and it gets back up to it, it's going to make a lower high and try to go lower. Obviously, it can blast right through. It does it all the time. You can show you examples of that like right here. We had a really nice clean day on the 15 minute time frame, making lower highs, rejecting off the nine and twenty one cloud. That's what once we blast through it, we start making higher lows and it starts holding the cloud of support to go higher. You just got to use it how it should be used. And you're using it as a trend indicator, using it for lower highs, lower lows, using it for back tests for upside, such as right here. You got a back test right here. You got a back test right here to upside. You got a back test right here, back test right here. Here's back tests to downside. And that's just what we're looking at on the one day time frame for your nine and twenty one EMA. Keep it simple. The nine and twenty one EMAs were great. And this is a one day time frame so you can use it with whatever. So for this week, obviously, we're still over the structure lows at three fifty four seventy one. So I feel pretty good about that. We didn't even get down to the 200 EMA yet, such as SPX. SPX you saw actually hit the 200 EMA. We didn't even do that on QQQ. So QQQ is holding up relatively well. Obviously, the, you know, the Nvidia, Meta, Apple, Amazon, all of them did really good this year, despite, you know, weak market breadth. A lot of other market is going slow tech, not so much. So tech's still holding up pretty good. And that's probably why it didn't break the structure lows. Obviously, it dipped a little bit below it, but we reclaimed it instantly. So there's still some strength from the balls here for gaps. You can see we have one right here. It filled about halfway today, so it didn't really feel it completely. So there could still be a little bit of room to fill that. Obviously, SPX probably has the best gap and that's going to be way higher. That's going to be once we get over those structure loads I was showing you over 4335. Once we get over that, still a lot of room to retrace and fill that gap. QQQ, you can see actually already made its way in a little bit, rejected off the 9 and 21 I just showed you and then went back down. So if it wants to dip down a little bit lower, I'll be more comfortable trying calls again off 354.71 sticking to that structure low or the general area, at least for bounces up here. It's kind of a little bit iffy, plus I showed you the 9 and 21 EMAs. So if you're buying in here, it's just a little bit riskier. It might be a little bit more wise to stick to down here or wait for it to get over the 21, which is going to be up here. Probably wants the gap gets closed completely. As your two areas of focus, I would focus on QQQ. Obviously, if it breaks under 354.71 and starts closing under it a couple of days in a row, that could definitely break structure and go lower, but right now we're still holding it. We do have one little pivot area right here at 348.18. So we start getting under the 354.71. Obviously, I can see that as a price target, 348.18. Otherwise, we're still holding over it. So if it dips down into it, definitely look for dip buys or counter-trail reversals could be a good trade to the upside, at least for scalps, I must take into mostly scalps and day trades when it comes to QQQ and spy. It's been a little bit tougher. I've taken a couple more losses than I'm used to this month, just from the whipsaw and just a lot of volatility in the markets. So you got to be careful with that, but definitely keep these one day levels in focus. They work really well. And you can see once we got back over the 354.71, I was just showing you, which is the structure low. Once I got over it, big velocity, went back under it briefly. But then once we got over it again right here, actually held the support kind of right here, really nice move to the upside. So I just had to get back over the structure lows. You can see once I got under the structure lows, really nice downside. Once I got back over, everything was gravy again. So 354.71 is definitely your level of focus. Focus on that. If you can get back down to it, maybe look for dip buys down there. Otherwise, you're waiting for it to get back over that nine and 21 EMA, which I showed you right here. If it can start getting over that cloud again, probably be a better signal that way you're not buying inside the cloud because that could act as resistance. So you just got to be careful with that. MACD is also still negative. It'd be nice to see a curl back up on that. You can see once we got the curl up right here, had a nice couple day rally. So if we can get a MACD signal to the upside, that'd be great as well. All right, next we're going into IWM. This is our last equity index that we're looking at. So last week, we closed under the structure lows, obviously. Here's Thursday, Friday. So this is Friday. I was expecting it to go down into this demand. I think I mentioned it a little bit lower to go and look where it went. It went directly into demand and even bounced off of it. So this little demand was perfect. And the reason why we focused on this demand or this base candle right here, I can even zoom in, show you a little bit. So we were focused on this base candle right here, that red base candle. We were focused on this area because something happened in this candle to lead to this big buy imbalance to the upside. And that's what supply and demand zones are all about. You're focusing on base candles that led to imbalances. So this red day led to this big, big buy imbalance. That's why we were focused on that. Just keep it simple. With regular support and resistance, or if you're just focused on regular lows, weak highs, weak lows, supply and demand zones, you're focusing on base candles. You usually do it from the open down to the low for demand. So that's kind of how I got this little bounce zone and probably mentioned that I couldn't see any lower than this because of the demand. And that's pretty much how I make a bias or really any directional trade on the higher time frames. I really like to use supply and demand zones as well as support resistance. It just works the best. You just kind of have to assume if it pulls into demand, it's not going to break it instantly. You have to see the demand zone low get taken out. Then you can project it lower. Otherwise, there's a good chance it's just going to bounce just like it did right here. This is perfect. This is a really nice short-term upside. So it may need to pull back into it again before you try to take a trade. I would definitely mark this demand zone on your chart. It's worth it. And I showed you right here, this little short-term impulse is really nice. I mean, you got up 1% here and then up another 1% the next day. So nice 2% rally, maybe even almost 3% just off this demand zone. So definitely mark it. It still looks small, but on the shorter-term time frames if you're day trading or even a swing trade, this 2% move can pay very well. So definitely mark this on your chart. I would wait for it to dip back into it before trying to go long. This mid-range area, not good area to try and long. And if you want to try and short the IWM, you want to see a retesting structure lows. Your structure low is here at 180.05 or just 180 flat comes from right here in June. You have another structure low or the neckline at 181.61. So this is the head and shoulders actually that we were looking at a couple of months ago. I'm sorry, a couple of weeks ago. We probably speculated that this would end up forming, but you don't really know until you actually start getting the resistance for the second shoulder. And that's probably like after the supply rejection that we were looking at a couple of weeks ago in September, early September. And then actually the head and shoulders pattern doesn't get confirmed until the neckline breaks. So your confirmation wasn't even until this Wednesday on the 20th and that sent it lower down into demand. Obviously this is a higher timeframe head and shoulders. So this whole pattern can still definitely go a lot lower. This neckline break actually wasn't even that big, maybe like 2, 3% after the neckline break at 180. Once it got under 180, probably had about 3% move to the downside, which is a really good move. But this is a higher timeframe head and shoulders. So there's obviously still a lot more potential that it could go lower, at least down to the 166.70s, the structure low right here. And there's also low at 167.46. So maybe we can get back down there eventually. We gotta be patient with that, especially if you're using higher timeframe patterns. This pattern took all the way from June, all the way to September to make the full head and shoulders. It made one shoulder in June, made the head and August made the second shoulder in September. So it might take a while to actually break down and get the full reward and maybe test the structure lows. So me personally, I would trade, you know, right when it breaks the support, I would take profit at demand for puts or shorts. And that would be my trade. I wouldn't aim any lower, to be honest. I'd trade more conservative. I'd try to go for like 20, 30% gains at a time. And I'd try my best to respect stop losses and stuff. Obviously it might hold a bit longer on some. You know, I make mistakes just like anybody else. But for the most part, I try to, you know, follow a strict plan with profit taking. And then, you know, sometimes you have those emotional days where you might have to trade a little bit too long in a loss or you might have sold too soon, but you're never gonna time the top or bottom perfectly. So it's just best to just do the best you can, try to have a threshold you're comfortable with and take profit on that. And that's usually the ones that gets down to demand. I'm not gonna, you know, look at shorts. I'm probably gonna look at longs. I'm gonna be looking at taking profits down here, on puts, et cetera. That's what I use the supply and demand zones for. So like I said, if you want a short, wait for it to get back up to the structure lows a little bit closer. Obviously today would have been pretty good to try that, but it didn't really hit the exact structure lows. You need to see a little bit closer and you could try to take a trade to the downside. Otherwise, for longs, wait for it to get back into demand. It's gonna be about 174.70s if you can get down there. You could look to buy the dip again, just like you saw right here. So as for IWM, you need to see a little bit more from it for the moving averages. We pulled into the nine and 21, just like everything else. QQQ and SPX also pulled into their nine and 21 EMA clouds, rejected off of it. Same pattern as them. Just a different overall structure. MACD is also still negative. So for longs, you'd wanna see that start curling back up. And as well, for a really bullish signal, you need to get back over the structure lows, obviously. At 180 to 181.61, a reclaim over that would be really good. Otherwise, we're still below that, still trending under the nine and 21 cloud. And if you're gonna really want to go longer by the dip, you're gonna wait for it to get down here at demand. Simple as that. All right, next, we're going into the VIX. So let's see what we were looking at last week. So we actually closed here on Friday, just briefly over 17. I actually mentioned we wanted to see a close under 17 for this to go lower and for the market to go higher. We actually did get that close on Monday. So we got the close under 17, but then instantly on Monday, or I'm sorry, on Tuesday, I mean, the VIX ran out very, very heavily. So unfortunately, the close under 17 didn't get the move down that I was looking for. So the 17 is obviously still an important level. I would want to see the same thing. You just need to see that close back under the 17s. Let's follow through, you know, in order for the VIX to go lower and also for the market to go higher. Right now, it's not really obliging. And it closed back over the 17. You see here 17. And that doesn't really look that great, honestly. That looks like this could just shoot back up into 1880s, which it did right here. So this was pretty much your peak high. I'm guessing I mentioned if it, you know, wanted to go higher, that's probably the peak at 1888. Cause that's really all you can go off of, which is, you know, your nearby WIC high. And then once you start closing over the 1880s, then you can, you know, start looking for the 20s to get tested, but it wasn't able to do that. It briefly closed over 1880s, but not in a convincing manner. So it actually rejected off that, which made a really nice rejection back down to 17. You could probably, you know, catch the market long. Once it's rejecting 1880s this hard, that's a really good signal where to go lower, especially with a candle like this big upper shadow WIC, really nice follow through to the downside. Obviously you had a similar candle right here on Monday, plus the close under 17. So you had everything you were looking for, upper shadow WIC, clear rejection candle, but then the next day you could see, you know, shot up very heavily. So levels and candles are not religion. They're not law. You don't need to abide by them every single time, but they're going to help you make decisions a little bit easier. And it's not always going to be 100% correct. You know, just because we had the 17 close under it, we had a big rejection candle. It didn't mean that the market has to go lower. I'm sorry that the VIX has to go lower, but you make a more educated decision, more educated guess and get a little bit more edge, paying attention to candles, paying attention to levels. And you know, sometimes they just don't work. And that's what happened right here. Had everything we were looking for close under 17, nice rejection candle, still the next day, really big run up into 1880s, but respected 1880s really well. So really nice rejection off 1880s and back down into the 17s, when it's low as 1580s. So I mean, these candles are huge. These are not small VIX moves by any means. So final thoughts for VIX, like I said, I don't like this close back over 17. This candle looks pretty bullish, honestly. And I couldn't head back up into the 1880s or at least 18 flat. I would need to see the close back under 17. We could give that signal a try again if it can close under the 17s. I'd feel good about it going back down. But right now it looks like it's trying to base up and go higher, honestly, and that could bring the market down. And honestly, looking at the SPX, it really didn't look like there was a, that could have a long setup anyways. We wanted to see that reclaim with a 4335 and the structure lows. And if we can get a VIX signal down plus the reclaim over 4335, that'd be a great signal for the market to go long. So we don't have a signal on SPX or the VIX right now to really look at any meaningful upside in the market. Need to see a little bit more from it from both. So we got to see that close under 17s, maybe even lower, and the reclaim over 4335 for the SPX. So that's for VIX. Looking like it wants to go a little bit higher just for now, but if it starts closing back under 17, look for it to go lower. All right, and last but not least, you're going into the DXY or the US dollar. So last week I was actually looking for it to find some resistance. I wasn't expecting it just to blow through 10588. I was wrong about that, unfortunately. So you can see this is actually a huge, huge resistance. That's why I thought it wouldn't just blow through so easy just because this was the first test up here that it's been tested since, what is this? March 23. I figured it would have an initial rejection that was way harder and a little bit more clear cut. It did not do that at all, which I mean, now that we look at it, it's not exactly surprising with all the uncertainty in the market and the feds, comments and everything. And now you can see it's actually trying to use 10588 as a back test level. So this is our main level. Look at the WIC strong push-up off of this right here. The main level, back test to move higher. The classic break and retest. So that's what it's doing. You kind of could have assumed that's what it was going to do because it's the first test to 10588 after being above it. Once it gets down to for the first test, there's a good chance it'll try to use that as a back test area. Obviously it tried to go back under the 10588 and actually had some acceleration. So it looked like the market could go higher just because the dollar was selling off so heavy. But even after the PCE data, the PCE data was pretty good. Like it wasn't bad or anything. It's honestly showing that inflation is coming down. Still by 930 dollars shot back up and we're back over the 10588, which is your major resistance or back test level that I'm showing you right here. So for right now it's using that as a back test. It's still holding the up trend line. You got to test one, test two. I would say this is maybe a test three, but that's also this back test area where you see the arrows. So that's our two closest levels for now that I've been focused on the 10588s and these 10470s to 10440s from down here which use that as a back test level as well. So it's kind of just doing the same thing to 10588. It's trying to make that wick push off of that in order to go higher. We need to see it closing under 10588 again in order to go lower. And we also need to see it closing under the trend line in order to go lower. So it starts closing under 10588 plus the trend line. You can definitely expect it to go back down to 10470s. It goes down there, it probably try to curl up and hold this back test level there again as it did right here. So we need to see that for the DXY to go lower that probably bring the market up if it can do that. So for right now, stay cautious, maybe stay a little bit bearish on the market because this thing is just still going. You got higher lows, higher highs, got higher low, higher high, higher low, higher high, higher low, higher high, higher low, higher high, higher low, higher high. And I'm making a higher low or back test off 10588. So I'm still holding a higher low. If you wanna know if the market's holding higher lows, literally just draw a trend line. If it's making a higher low and it keeps going up and it's not breaking, it's making higher lows. You could probably even add the moving averages. You can see here's our cloud, got higher lows, higher lows, higher lows, holding the nine and 21 combo clean cut really nicely. So this is your optimal ideal uptrend that you don't wanna see on anything you're a bullish on. This is just perfect. So like I said, needs to get under 10588, needs to close under it, needs to close under the trend line. Otherwise, we do have some peaks right here in order to go higher. We got a peak at 107.19. We got a peak at 107.99. And then a major peak. Well, we could probably call this little support right here, this low at 109.53. And that's pretty much all the levels. Hopefully it's not hurting your eyes too bad. There's a reason why we mark each one. You got an extreme point right here from 2022, extreme point right here from 2022. We have an extreme point right here, extreme point right here, extreme point right here and right here, extreme point right here. So I'm just showing you all the extreme points and that's where you get all your lines from. So each level has a reason. Each level has a big extreme or imbalance to it and that's why you mark them. Just like over here, we got a major low to bounce. Once it flushed under it right here, this is a big area. So this 109.50 is also a big area. And those are kind of your upside price targets for now. 107.19, which is this way, Kai. And then 107.99 or probably just 108 flat, which comes from right here. So as long as this uptrend is still holding and this 10588 is holding, those price targets could hit over time. I don't expect it to hit coming into next week. It's a little bit high for me to understand, but anything can happen. You know, the market's crazy right now. Like I said, last week I thought we were gonna reject off this 10588 at least short-term and it didn't do that. So I'm not always right. I can just only go off the levels and that's what we do in every single video. So I hope you guys enjoyed the video. Make sure you like, comment and subscribe. I do have a trip this week and I'll be out of town. So I'm gonna be uploading this either tonight or on Saturday instead of Sunday. So hopefully you guys enjoy it. Make sure you go check out our app and web platform at app.extrays.net. Like, comment and subscribe to our Xtrays YouTube channel. I love you guys. I'm gonna go ahead and get this chopped up, edited and sent out. Love you guys and I'm out.